Hello again Army, and welcome to this week’s Calming the Chaos! We’re back at it with another slate at Charlotte, but instead of being the shortest one of the season like we had last week, this week marks the longest race of the season. It’s Memorial Day weekend, so what better time to get some BBQ going for the race today? We have plenty of time before the green flag waves, so get those grills fired up!
As always, if you haven’t already, be sure to check out my driver list & tools suite, as this article will directly tie into it.
Charlotte Motor Speedway
The track is the same as last week but the aero package is not. We’re going back to the 550 HP + aero ducts package, the same one we saw at the Kansas, Texas, and Las Vegas 1.5-mile tracks. Instead of focusing on what we saw last week, focus more on how those races played out.
Lineup construction/correlation
We have 400 laps this week – far more than the amount we see at any other 1.5-mile track – which calls for a little bit different of an approach compared to others. Add in the fact that there are a bunch of high-end place differential plays, and we find ourselves needing to take a serious look at the super-punts this week. Remember, we don’t need them to necessarily go off for a big score, we just need them to tie together top-heavy lineups in the even those drivers go off (and with how many of them there are, chances are they several of them do).
That said, stars & scrubs lineups are in play for all formats today, yes, even cash games. You can go more balanced in cash if you’d like, but dumpster diving is ok as long as you’re stuffing in a bunch of high-end plays here. Remember, the hybrids don’t have to dominate to pay off, so it’s not the same as stuffing together a bunch of dominators hoping they all dominate. We have higher floors/ceilings built in with these guys due to their starting positions. Speaking of which, let’s get into them now!
Hybrids
Note – even though I only marked Truex as a “top play” on the sheet, all six of these guys are basically top plays this week and deserve plenty of exposure. Unless we see something really crazy happen, which this aero package has seemed to all but eliminate, there’s a very good chance that at least one or two of these guys wind up in the winning lineup, and possibly even three of them. They’ll be chalky of course, but they’ll probably be chalk you have to eat. I’d recommend trying to leverage the chalk elsewhere!
We have six heavy hitters this week – Truex, Keselowski, Hamlin, Larson, Blaney, and Elliott. I like them roughly in that order, but it’s almost splitting hairs with the kind of floor/ceilings they offer. If I had to make an exception, it would be for Truex and Keselowski, as they have the best dominator potential of the group. I almost expect Truex to turn it on in the second half of the race and lead at least 100 laps, possibly more. He’s my favorite of the group, but like I said earlier, all six of them deserve plenty of exposure. Please don’t sleep on these guys!
If you don’t like cash games in NASCAR due to having to nail the dominator (on DraftKings at least), then this is the race for you. You can load up on these guys instead of trying to figure out who dominates the early portion of the race.
Dominators
Kyle Busch leads the way here, which shouldn’t be too surprising. Harvick is next in line, and those two represent the two most likely to dominate the early/middle portion of the race. While there are enough laps for them to both pay off in the same lineup (on DraftKings), it is a bit risky, so I would only go there in GPP. For cash, there’s no reason to force them into the same lineup when we have so many hybrids available.
Logano and Byron are the next two up (and maybe Almirola as well), but I don’t love their chances of dominating much today. They’re worth sprinkling around in GPP (I wouldn’t stack any of them together), but there’s no need to go to them in cash.
I don’t mind stacking Byron with Busch or Harvick in GPP, mostly because he’s cheap and we don’t need him to lead 100+ laps to pay off. If he can grab 20-40 throughout the race and finish in the top-10, he could be in the winning lineup that way.
Studs
Due to there being so many hybrids, the studs this week are all GPP plays. If you land on one of them in cash, I don’t hate it, but I wouldn’t go out of my way to roster them there. Go for the hybrids first.
Johnson is my favorite, followed by Jones, Kurt, Bowman, Suarez, then Almirola. I would limit myself to two of them at the most per lineup, but I’d prefer just one. Their primary use is as a pivot to the hybrids.
Value studs
CHRIS BUESCHER.
Newman and Menard are next, and I really like the as GPP pivots. Both are capable of surprise finishes and could see a top-10. Both have adapted really well to the new aero packages.
Stenhouse and Dillon are next, though I can’t say I’m in love with either of them today. Feel free to sprinkle them around, but favor the other three.
Value
Ty Dillon is the man here, followed by Ragan. They are both good to go in all formats and offer plenty of upside for GPP as well.
Wallace is my favorite GPP pivot here, followed by DiBenedetto and Preece. They are all capable of a top-15 here, but they’re all risky, so do with that what you will. Definitely sprinkle them around in GPP, but I wouldn’t go crazy stacking these three together. You could stack one of them with Ty/Ragan, though.
I don’t like Hemric or McDowell today, and I’m fine with just fading them. If you want to take a shot with Hemrick, do it on FanDuel. McDowell has a limited ceiling today on both sites.
Punts
Ah, the punts. Sometimes we auto-fade them, sometimes we need them. This week could be one of those times where we need them, so don’t be afraid to embrace them.
Tifft has the highest ceiling of the group, but we know how risky he is.
LaJoie, Chastain, and Kligerman are next in line. They’re all risky too but do offer some upside depending on how the race unfolds.
The super-punts are next. They include Sorenson, Gase, Currey, Houff, McLoud, then Ware. I like them in that order. There’s no real rhyme or reason to them, as they’re all risky and could easily finish where they’re starting, but I think the likelihood of them doing anything is in that order.
If you use them, make sure you load up on a bunch of high-ceiling drivers in that lineup! Don’t dumpster dive and then limit your ceiling with a bunch of medium-ceiling plays for a balanced lineup. The whole point of a super-punt is to give yourself the highest ceiling possible with the rest of your lineup, so be smart about how you use them.
Stacks
I put a few on the sheet for this week. My favorite two are JGR and Hendrick, with Penske as the third option.
I tend to prefer mini-stacks for them, as full stacks are more difficult to pull off. Busch and Truex/Hamlin, Johnson and Elliott/Bowman, and then Keselowski and Blaney are the main mini-stack targets.
Jones and Byron are in play as pieces of stacks too, but I do like the others better. Logano is too, but I don’t love his chances of dominating. I’d prefer to stack him with Keselowski/Blaney and hope they bring something to the race today that nobody saw coming.
Pivots
As usual, pivots are the name of the game. The first place to look will be the hybrids. I think you should have a bunch of exposure to all six of them, probably at least one or two of them in every lineup, especially on DraftKings. Yes, they’ll be chalky, but there are too many of them for them to all fail. I don’t recommend going overboard and fading them all. There’s a very slim chance of that paying off.
After that, I would look at the value/value studs/studs, dominators, then super-punts. I listed my favorite pivots on my notes sheet and in here. If you have any questions, hit me up in Slack!
Closing thoughts
Not much left to say here. Just remember that things are different again this week (as is usually the case), so don’t get caught up in what happened last week or the week before. Always be adapting, as that’s the way to give yourself an edge. Good luck, and I’ll see you all in Slack!
p.s. play chris buescher
