No longer ‘Glory’s Last Chance’ the PGA Championship has moved to May and taken it’s slot as the 2nd Major of the year!

My name is Josh Thomas, aka DFSUpNorth, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army!  I write the Chalk Donkey article for VIP’s every week here at DFS Army looking at who the chalk plays are in DFS Golf and who you can pivot to. That article is a 5000 word deep dive analysis of the player pool and looks at if you need to eat the chalk especially in cash games, and who some pivots are using our world class Research Station.

It’s time for Glory’s 2nd Shot! (Think they’ll go with that?) the PGA Championship! This year’s PGA Championship moves from August to May as the tour has tried to condense the schedule to be done with meaningful tournaments before the NFL Season starts. The host of the PGA this year is none other than America’s course, Bethpage Black!

Bethpage Black is a public course located in Bethpage State Park on Long Island, New York. It’s been open to the public since 1936 and is an A.W. Tillinghast design. Tillinghast is noted for not only being a prolific course designer and way ahead of his time in terms of golf architecture. He is most notably the designer of Baltusrol, Winged Foot, and Ridgewood along with Bethpage Black. Tillinghast designs are noted for their blind tee/approach shots, cross bunkering making you lay up or take on a bunker, and elevated green approaches that punish poor approach shots.

Bethpage has hosted the US Open twice, once in 2002 (Tiger Woods -3 winner) and 2009 (Lucas Glover -4). It also hosted the Barclays twice, the first in 2012 (Nick Watney -10) and in 2016 (Patrick Reed -9). You can see the big difference in scoring from the US Open to the Barclays. The USGA essentially wants players to shoot over par and you can see that in those low winning scores. They also completely lost the greens which led to some pretty horrible scores. The Barclays which was a PGA tour event is set up similar to what you would see on a normal week. A tough test, but not impossible to shoot under par.

Both of those events were held in the middle of the summer. The rough has had time to grow up, and the greens have been played by the public all summer an were pretty firm. With this event playing in the middle of May, it appears like we will see a bit of a different golf course. The rough won’t be as penal. It will still punish wayward tee shots off these bacon strip fairways, but it won’t be impossible to get it to the green from the rough like it was in the US Open. The greens will also be pretty soft. The course has seen a TON of rain this spring and is seeing more this week. The greens will be receptive. We won’t see them unplayable like Brandt Snedeker and others complained about in 2012.

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While they will be soft, I think they’ll still be able to get them rolling pretty fast due to it being early in the growing process for the poa annua. As with any Poa Annua greens, as the day goes on, particularly if there is sun in the forecast, we will see them get pretty bumpy and even more difficult to putt on. Being a good poa putter might be the key to victory here this week.

If we look at how the course played in 2016 at the Barclays above, you can notice a few things right away. First, it played as a par 71, for the PGA Championship it will be a par 70. Hole #7 will play as a par 4 at 524 yards instead of a par 5. That hole played a half stroke under par at the Barclays in 2016 meaning that if it was a par 4, it would have played a half stroke over par. That would bring the course average score from .747 strokes over par to 1.247 strokes over par. That also takes 13 eagles out of play meaning that the course only saw 9 eagles for the whole week in 2016. An extremely difficult test of golf. My assumption would be that while the PGA will attempt to set it up a bit easier, particularly early in the week if we see the rain they are forecasting, I don’t see the winner breaking double digits under par. A winning score of -6 or -7 is likely. If the wind blows though, that all goes out the window and we can see another -3 winner despite the PGA wanting more of birdie fest than the USGA.

It should be a great test of a golfer’s skill set and I would imagine we get a similar leaderboard to the Masters’, chock full of studs all contending and maybe just maybe we see the GOAT get two in a row. Now, let’s get to the course, I’ll break down each hole and then conclude with some of the stats that I think will be key to those who contend this week!

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Hole by Hole Course Preview:

Hole #1

Par 4 430 yards 

Hole number one carries in the infamous warning sign for the casual golfer about how difficult the course is, but for these professionals, it won’t be too tough of a test, particularly for those who are long off the tee. The key is having the right angle into the green which is protected by bunkers right and left. Front left pin is a ‘go time’ pin meaning players in position can attack, but anything deep on the green and par is a great score.

Bombers who can carry the ball 320 plus can cut the corner here and have a short iron or wedge into the green. Even a 300-yard drive on the right side of the fairway can carry the trees and put you in a pretty good position. A lot of this depends on the wind and hole location though. Players get a front pin and they will likely be a bit more aggressive trying to attack it from the best position off the tee. With the course likely not playing firm and fast though, it will have to be all carry off the tee here for players and shorter hitters may have a tough time getting around the corner to even see the green.

 

Hole #2

Par 4, 389 yards

While a shorter par 4, it doesn’t get much easier for players on the second hole as it is essential to hit the fairway here. Players will likely hit a three wood or a hybrid into the elevated fairway so they are in position to get to this green. Fairway is only 8 to 10 yards wide. Some players may elect to hit driver and hope it sticks but it’s a risky play, especially when they will likely only have a wedge if they hit hybrid.

Anything off the fairway brings bogey or worse into play. Played a little easier in August for the Barclays but I think with the soft fairways we’ll see this hole play over par this week.

Green is pretty severely elevated and difficult to hold from the rough.

 

You can see from Kevin Streelman’s yardage book from the 2012 Barclays what a difficult shot this. You have to a hit a thin fairway at the right yardage and anything off the fairway brings these trees into play.

Hole #3 

Par 3, 230 yards 

The Par 3 third has an angled green that can play at a variety of distances depending on wind or how the scoring is going and what the PGA wants. The green is fairly wide in the front, and gets narrower as we move back. The back left pin is difficult to get to and you can easily fly it over the back which is almost a guaranteed bogey.

Hole #4 

Par 5, 517 yards 

Ah, finally a par 5, and a short one! With number 7 turning into a par 4, this hole will likely play the easiest. It’s about a 222 yard carry to the top of the hill and 290 to carry the bunkers on the left. The fairway runs out at around 320 yards. The bombers will likely be able to get it down there and have a 200-yard shot (plus elevation) into a very elevated green that’s protected by bunkers. Players who are in the go zone there will likely take a crack at the soft greens and if they get it there they can hold it and have a look at eagle on a fairly flat green. Others will lay up to the right of the green and have a somewhat easy chip into the green. Anything less than birdie here this week will likely feel like a bogey

 

 

 

Hole #5

Par 4, 478 yards 

Being right here is essential off the tee. Anything left will have the green blocked by trees and leave you a tricky up and down for par. The issue is that you have these cavernous bunkers on the right to deal with and can be a scary tee shot for some. They are only a 266-yard carry, but the sight line can cause players to yank it left which essentially leaves them dead if the pins left. Green is elevated as usual with Tillinghast designs and regardless of where you are on the fairway/rough, it’s difficult to see the surface.

 

Hole #6 

Par 4, 408 yards 

Another difficult tee shot (you see a theme here?) Players hit into a landing zone that they can’t see and won’t have a clue where their ball is until they get there. Players will need to carry the bunkers and then get a run off the slope that leads to the green. Likely only a 3 wood for most players depending on the wind as the bunker is only a 240-yard carry. Absolutely a birdie hole from the fairway despite a green that is covered by bunkers on all sides.

 

Hole #7 

Par 4, 524 yards 

 

Hole 7 is a big par 5 that is now a par 4 for this iteration fo the PGA Championship. The goal here is to be in the fairway so you can hit a long iron into this green. Par is a great score. Some guys might hit 3 wood if the course firms up, but with the right line a driver is in play as long as it doesn’t run through the fairway. Players will have a long shot into the green regardless.

 

 

 

 

Hole #8

Par 3, 210 yards

A downhill par 3 that the PGA can turn into a pretty short par 3 if they want to. The only hole where water is an issue. The big tree on the right can be an issue for any pin location front right. Players will also have to hit it over the tree if the pin is in the back. Wind can wreak havoc on tee shots here as they have to account for that as well as a pretty big elevation change from the tee boxes to the green. Was the most difficult par 3 in 2016.

Hole #9 

Par 4, 460 yards.

The closing hole on the front nine is a big dogleg left with a cross bunker that will find lots of balls as players come through here either trying to finish their rounds and wrap up their first nine. Played as the fourth most difficult hole in 2016. It’s about a 300 yard carry over the bunkers and as long as it’s not into the wind shouldn’t be an issue for the longer hitters. Carry the bunkers and you have a short wedge into an easy green where you can make birdie. Most players will likely take a line to the right to be safe.

Anything right is safe, but a much more difficult shot into the green. This is a classic risk/reward hole and one that clearly benefits the longer hitters off the tee. Players who start on the back and get here in trouble may be thinking birdie and take on that bunker more than guys who start on the front.

Making the Turn

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Hole #10 

Par 4, 510 yards

Hole 10 starts one of the toughest stretches on the course in 10-12. All three holes played over par in 2016 and each presents a bit of a different challenge. The challenge here is right in front of your face. It’s a thin fairway with bunkers right and left. Find the fairway and you can make par. Don’t and you’re in trouble. Find the bunker and you can be staring a double right in the face. There isn’t much rough here as the bunkers are all protected by fescue.

The green is protected by bunkers in the front and its all rough around the green. You need to be in the fairway, and you need to hit the green here. This is a tough hole to start your round on. An intimidating tee shot, tough green to hit, you walk off this green with a par and you are fist-bumping your caddie.

 

Hole #11 

Par 4, 435 yards

 

 

Hole 11 is another straightaway par 4 but a little more interesting as players can see the green but the fairway dips and you can’t see the landing zone. The bunkers left and right close up the landing zone at around 285 yards depending on where the tees are. Most guys can carry them, but those that can’t will be in trouble.

The green is two tiered with a false front which is why you need to be in a good spot here and not in the bunker. The green also has more slope than almost any green on the course.

 

 

Hole #12

Par 4, 515 yards 

The 12th hole could play a pivotal role in eliminating the shorter hitters from the competition. At 515 yards it’s the second longest par4 on the course and the only one that really requires a forced carry over the bunker. The bunker will dominate the player’s site line and they will need to pick a spot and hit it, hoping it carries the 285 yards. Even then they aren’t safe as there is a long stretch of rough on the other side of the bunker, making it essentially a 305 yard carry to the fairway.  A bailout left is dead in the trees and right makes it a really long hole. Anything too far right ends up in the bunker there with a 200 plus yard shot into the green.

 

Hole #13

Par 5, 608 yards 

A par 5 after that stretch of difficult holes will be a welcome reprieve for the players. That being said, it’s going to be almost impossible to get to in two this week with the rain that the course has seen and is seeing. It’s bombs away on one of the wider fairways here. Bunkers left in the landing zone but anything right is safe. The issue is the bunker protecting the front edge of the green. Players will be hitting a 3 wood or hybrid about 260-270 into this green and will have to fly it the whole way. I think we see quite a few balls end up in the front bunker, but maybe even more in the right bunker of guys who go for it and bail out. The better play may be to leave yourself 100 yards in with a wedge and really trying to attack the pin on a green complex that isn’t very sloped.

Hole #14 

Par 3, 161 yards 

 

 

This may end up being the players last real good shot at a birdie before the difficult closing stretch. The green is downhill of the hole and fairly wide. The back runs away a bit which you need to be careful of but most guys are hitting PW or 9 iron here and should be able to get it close. Had the second most birdies on the back in 2016 and the fewest amount of bogeys.

 

 

 

Hole #15 

Par 4, 484 yards

 

While it doesn’t look like much on paper, the 15th is a very difficult hole due to the massive elevation change. The players are looking at a 10 to 15-yard increase in elevation for the second shot into a green that is completely surrounded by bunkers. Anyone who hits it in the rough here may actually lay up to the end of the fairway instead of taking on the bunkers trying to cover the green. All really depends on wind and how thick the rough is.

 

 

Hole #16 

Par 4, 490 yards 

Another hole that for the most part is right in front of you. It’s also downhill as you come off the elevated green on 15 right to this tee box. The wind can really whip across this exposed fairway making it difficult to hit. Anything left deals with a newly added tree, while right has to cover the bunker making it a difficult second shot. As with almost any hole on this course, center cut and long is perfect.

Hole #17 

Par 3, 207 yards

The massive peanut-shaped green on the par 3 17th is surrounded entirely by deep bunkers and can play a variety of different ways. Anything on the right side of the green can play as short as around 160 yards, while deep on the left can be upwards of 210. Players will likely be playing 1-2 clubs different each day depending on where they place the ball. Not an entirely difficult tee shot, but one that will keep players on their toes. Bunkers, especially short will be difficult to make par from.

Hole #18 

Par 4, 411 yards

The closing hole at Bethpage Black is a classic. A downhill tee shot to a landing zone that is narrowed by bunkers. You can see the whole hole in front of you and the clubhouse is behind the green. Find the fairway here and you will be absolutely looking at a short iron into the green for birdie. Anything else and you are grinding to make par. What a scene it will be on a Sunday if someone pipes it and makes birdies to take home the Wannamaker trophy.

Key Stats:

After going through the course there are a couple things that stick out to me in terms of the type of golfer that you want to target here. Golfers who are long and accurate with a great approach game will be successful here. I think we can target golfers who maybe have mediocre approach games if their Around the Green game is solid, as getting up and down will be essential. Ultimately I think we need Distance > Accuracy but a combination of the two will be key for guys who are going to vault up the leaderboard.

The stats I’m going to target in our Research Station this week that the DFS Army VIP’s have access to are:

Field Adjusted Driving Accuracy %

Field Adjusted Driving Distance 

Field Adjusted Fantasy Points Gained 

Fantasy Points Long Par 4’s 

Fantasy Points Medium Par 4’s 

Field Adjusted Strokes Gained Approach L25

Projected Course Score (a stat that is exclusive to us here at DFS Army) 

Adjusted Field Rank (another stat exclusive to us) 

Here’s an example of what our Research Station looks like. With tabs showing what sort of stats statistically correlate to a strong performance here. A look at the best tournaments at courses over the last 5+ years and what players did well and tons of other information to help you build the best line up possible!

One thing we look at and provide our VIP’s with is Vegas Odds drifts. We take the original odds at 5-6 different books, combine them, and look at how much odds change over the week leading up to the tournament. We will show odds drift at majors from when odds are posted to Monday of tournament week and then again on Wednesday. Its a great to see where the money is coming in. We often see positive drift correlating to a good performance and that’s just another tool we provide our VIPs with here at DFS Army.

We will be going over all of this and more in our members-only coaching channels with tons of members actively engaged in helping each other build the best roster they can, from PGA to MLB to NFL to Tennis we have it all and we have the experts to help you get in the green!

Content Schedule for PGA Championship Week:

For this week’s Major Championship we are opening ALL of our DFS PGA Content for FREE, including my in-depth 5000 word GPP strategy article ‘Chalk Donkey’ and our final coaches notes sheet. The coaches notes page has core plays, leverage plays, value plays, punts, fades, and my Cash Core that has been killing it the last few weeks. Check out an example here —>

We also have VIP members only contest for DFS Army Swag bag (and cash)! But you need to be a DFS Army VIP to enter! Sign up here —> —> VIP SIGN UP <—

Monday: 

Course Preview – DFSUpNorth

Schnarr’s Superpicks – Brody

Research Station/Domination Station uploaded

Tuesday:

Taco Tuesday Podcast Free but with deep dive for VIPs Only – Taco

First Edition of Coaches Notes

Wednesday:

Chalk Donkey Article – DFSUpNorth

Drifts updated

Final Notes – Taco, DFSUpNorth, Brody

Coaching Channels help lineup building!

Sunday: 

Screenshots of all our VIPs Big Wins!

Try us out for free this week and if you aren’t convinced check out our Wall of Wins and take a look at Oysterdood’s 100k win in PGA DFS last year!

Don’t miss out on all of this great content. Sign up today and become a VIP member! Who knows maybe you can be like Oysterdood and be the next 100K winner at DFSArmy. We’ve had two in the last year! Are you next?! Remember to use code UPNORTH for 20% off for life!

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