BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 9
Location – Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
Thanks for purchasing my UFC Fight Night 151 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Canada. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Mitch Gagnon $8,500 vs Cole Smith $7,700
Mitch Gagnon
Age: 34
Height: 5’5
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Team Shredder
From: Canada
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Year 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -120
Mitch Gagnon will be returning after a myriad of injuries & almost a 2.5-year layoff. He will be getting to fight in his home country & try to bounce back from two consecutive losses. Gagnon is a strong wrestler & very good in round one. He is fast early. He has nice inside, outside leg kicks & strong left hooks & right straights. He is much lighter on his feet & quicker in & out than Smith. He will throw a nice right uppercut, left hook combination. He will occasionally attack the body & then go up to the head to close the distance. He will occasionally pump the jab out there. He will also throw hard body & head kicks. He exits with his hands down & chin high pulling away & can get very wild just brawling with no regard for defense. He doesn’t have great cardio, because he keeps an unsustainable pace. He only has one TKO & has never been finished by strikes.
Gagnon is a strong wrestler, and a beast in round one. He has excellent clinch control & will throw brutal knees to the head in the Thai plum. He is very good at exiting the clinch with a big shot off the break. He is good at getting an upper body clinch, pushing fighters to the cage & dropping down for doubles & singles. He has fairly explosive distance takedown shots as well. When he is on top he has nasty ground & pound, and good back takes. He will try to work quickly & finish the fight. He has 10 first round submissions. He has a very nice guillotine as well, both when he is on top or defending takedowns. He is going to be the physically stronger fighter in my opinion, but it’s hard to gauge how his gas tank will return after over two years off vs a grinding style like Smith. Gagnon has been submitted twice in his career both in round 3 when he was tired. Gagnon is going to come out fast if I were to guess. It’s his style for one, and also his first fight in two years in his home country. He needs to push Smith back with striking combinations and go for the knockout. If he can get him backing up because of his power, I see him getting Smith on the mat in round one & going for the finish. If Smith can survive round one, it could get interesting. He will need to be able to go at a pace where he can at least secure two rounds.
Cole Smith
Age: 30
Height: 5’11
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: The Sound Martial Arts
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 226
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +100
Cole Smith will be replacing Brian Kelleher on short notice and making his UFC debut. Smith is 6-0 with 5 finishes. I struggled to find much of any footage on this guy. I was able to find one five round title fight he won via decision. He is a grinder. Smith’s striking is not very good. It’s sloppy & almost solely to close the distance. He throws a lot of front kicks to the body. He will throw leg kicks & occasionally crash forward with straight punch combinations. He will throw left hooks into double legs. When fighters pressure him, he will back up in straight lines & panic wrestle. His striking is just not UFC level & if he can’t get takedowns I don’t see him winning fights. He does have two TKO’s via G&P. He is tough & will continue to go forward even if he’s rocked or dropped.
Cole Smith is a strong grappler. Smith likes to walk opponents down & clinch them up against the cage. He will get in on a double & then move up to the upper body clinch. He will dig double underhooks & land nice knees to the body along with short punches. He will land big elbows in the clinch & off the break. He is good at hanging on opponents & keeping his weight on them. He is good at taking the back from standing position & dragging it to the mat. He will get the body lock & hunt for the RNC. He doesn’t really soften opponents up so much and doesn’t have great finishing ability on the submission. He can sometimes put his head in position to be guillotined, but he has good submission defense & stays calm. He has solid double legs in space as well. He is going to try to get the fight to the ground or against the cage & grind opponents out. He has great cardio & will start to get takedowns & take dominant positions, mostly the back much easier as the fight continues. He is solid off his back. He will attack with submissions such as armbars & triangles, but mostly uses them to scramble back to his feet. I have seen him submitted in an amateur fight. He went for an armbar, was slammed immediately, had his back taken & was choked out. As a pro, he has 3 submissions & has never been finished. Smith really hasn’t faced anyone very good & this is the best fighter he’s ever faced. Smith is going to want to get in on Gagnon & make it a wrestling match. He is going to try to get Gagnon near the cage and try to clinch him up. If he gets the fight to the mat, he will be looking to take the back, and get a submission or TKO. He needs to try to weather the storm, push Gagnon & then take him out.
Gagnon is making his return after a 2.5-year layoff due to a number of injuries. Smith will be making his UFC debut here and we have two Canadian grapplers going at it in the curtain jerker. There are a lot of unknowns with this fight and what Gagnon will look like after his layoff and now being 34 years old. I don’t see him looking better and he is going to be the smaller guy in this fight going against a guy that likes to use his size and strength. I think Smith’s size will help him a lot here and I think he is the more dangerous guy. Either guy could get KO’d, but neither are very great on the feet. I think the length of Smith and his elbows would be the edge on the feet and I think he will be the guy landing takedowns as well. I think Smith should be a slight favorite in this matchup though and I think he has the much higher ceiling at this point in their careers. I am going to throw 1u on Cole Smith here at +110 and I think he picks up a RNC submission win in his UFC debut. I think he could also grind his way to a decision victory as well, but I think if he can avoid being finished himself, he should win this fight and that is why he is my free play of the week.
On DraftKings, I like targeting this fight because it is the first fight on the card and the debut fighter is taking the fight on short notice. That could lead to him hunting for an early finish or could lead to him getting finished himself. Either way, I think it’s a solid fight to target for GPPs. My preferred play is Smith though and I think he is the only one of the two playable in cash as well. I do prefer this fight as GPP only, but the odds are shifting to Cole’s favor and he is a dog I like to win, so I have debated using him in cash myself. I will be overweight to him on the field in GPPs though and I think some Gagnon lineups would be smart as well if you are multi-entering. If you are making 1-5 lineups I would probably just pick a side instead of using both.
Winner – Cole Smith via 2nd round Submission
Juan Adams $8,300 vs Arjan Bhullar $7,900
Juan Adams
Age: 27
Height: 6’5
Weight: 266
Reach: 81”
Gym: Paradigm Training Center
From: Texas
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 98
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -120
Juan Adams is looking to go 2-0 in the UFC, and 6-0 overall. Adams is as big as it gets for HW, standing at 6’5 & topping the scales at 266 lbs. Adams is 4-0 as a pro with 4 finishes. He had 4 fights as an amateur that were all finishes as well. He went to the third round for the first time in his career in his UFC debut before finishing Chris De La Rocha. Adams has good hand speed, and a nice jab. He will throw inside, outside leg kicks & he needs to be very aggressive with those in this matchup. He will throw a jab, right hook combination. He has a long reach & will close the distance with straight punch combinations. He has no regard for his opponent’s power and doesn’t move his head at all. He was getting tagged with clean shots consistently, but De La Rocha just didn’t have the power to hurt him. He did gas out badly in the second round & allowed De La Rocha to walk him down and land some big shots. De La Rocha was exhausted as well & couldn’t capitalize. Adams does keep a crazy pace, especially for a HW. He finished Chris De La Rocha with 15 consecutive unanswered shots. He has 5 KO/TKO’s in 5 wins.
Adams looks to be a very strong grappler, and just physically manhandles opponents. He will throw big knees to the body in the clinch. He was able to easily takedown Chris De La Rocha with a body lock & landed some nasty G&P. He took him down by just throwing him down after getting a front head lock position & just seemed to be able to take him down with ease whenever he wanted. He will posture up from half guard & land big shots. He will throw big hammerfists & elbows. He is very agile & athletic for his size & can scramble very well. He isn’t a submission threat, and never had a submission in his career, but he did go for a rear naked choke in his last match. He has good takedown defense, and it was laughable how easily he defended the takedowns of De La Rocha. He was able to reverse him easily & the one time he did get taken down, he got up immediately. Fighters seem to be scared by his presence in there, and he is able to bully fighters. He gassed out extremely badly for a period of time against De La Rocha and needs to improve his cardio. I feel early on he will be able to deny the takedown attempts of Bhullar. He needs to walk him down, go forward & try to land big leg kicks & combinations. It will be interesting to see if he can just eat the shots of Bhullar like he did against De La Rocha. He should try to get on top of Bhullar and see if he can take him out with G&P.
Arjan Bhullar
Age: 32
Height: 6’0
Weight: 242
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: AKA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 96
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +100
Arjan Bhullar will get another home game in Canada after winning in Moncton against Marcelo Golm his last fight. He is 2-1 in the UFC & has a lot of hype due to his Indian heritage & training at AKA. Bhullar has decent boxing skills. He likes to plow forward while using head movement to get inside. He has a good jab. He will throw a nice lead left hook as well. He will throw a one-two & a jab, overhand right combination. He has power in his overhand right & dropped Luis Henrique with it. He will close the distance with hook & uppercut combinations. He tends to get tired as the fight goes on, and he will use a lot of lateral movement, exclusively just looking to counter punch. He has decent hand speed, and, in the pocket, he can be dangerous. He struggles to close the distance at times and can be hit with shots coming in. He is very heavy on his lead leg, & extremely susceptible to leg kicks. He is very tough & I don’t think he’s ever going to show someone he’s hurt or look for a way out in there. Bhullar has 3 KO/TKO’s in 8 wins. He has never been finished by strikes.
Arjan Bhullar is a very accomplished wrestler. He is a former Olympian & commonwealth games gold medalist. He likes to use his jab to push opponents back towards the cage & then get in on a body lock, single, or double leg. He is good at digging an underhook & landing short knees to the legs & body. He will mix in short punches & uppercuts to the head. He doesn’t shoot takedowns in space and isn’t an explosive athlete. He needs to be able to get opponents near or towards the cage to be able to get in on the legs. He will try to grab a hold of the back of the head in space, pull it down & throw an uppercut. When Bhullar gets his hands connected, he is going to get that takedown. He is extremely strong & will just lift & sumo opponents with ease. He got an explosive slam on Luis Henrique, where he literally put him on his shoulder, walked him to the center of the cage & dumped him. When he gets top position, he has good control, but is not overly aggressive. He doesn’t really try to advance position & will just land short shots from inside the opponent’s guard. In his lone loss he was caught in a omaplata submission & seemed to panic a bit and quick tapped. He obviously is not very high level in BJJ & mainly just a top control, lay & prey wrestler. He has no submissions in his career. Bhullar is going to be undersized here, it’s an interesting matchup. He needs to try to use his jab & left hook to close the distance. If he can get Adams in the clinch, make him work and try to tire him out, I think Bhullar will be able to land his jab & right hands, but he has to be weary of the counters of Adams & long combinations. If he can’t keep Adams off him he will have to rely on wrestling more. If he can get Adams on his back after he gasses out, I haven’t seen him off his back at all.
Adams has looked pretty dominant so far in his short 2-3-year career. However, I think it’s his size that has caused most people problems. He is huge and moves well for a guy that big, and it doesn’t take much for him to end a fight with a KO. He is still very green though and this could be a tough fight for him, and I think we will get to see what he looks like off his back. I am guessing that is the big weakness in his game and Bhullar is surely going to look to expose it. He is an Olympic wrestler and a smart guy as well. I don’t see him wanting to put himself in much danger for this fight, so I think he looks to close the distance immediately. I see him doing a lot of cage work in this fight and working his way to takedowns. Once he gets them and is on top, I don’t see Adams having much for him there and Bhullar should be able to clearly win rounds while exhausting Adams at the same time. I think the wrong guy is favored here and I like Bhullar to pull off an upset with his wrestling.
Even though I am picking Bhullar to get the win, I think Adams is probably the better DraftKings play. I think he has a much higher ceiling and if he wins I think it’s likely a knockout. If Bhullar wins, I think it will be a slow-paced fight with a lot of holding against the cage and trying to keep top control if it hits the ground. Even if he wins I am not sure he gets 10x because I don’t think he is likely to finish. I do think this fight will be popular though (especially Adams) so fading it altogether could be the play here if you aren’t MMEing. I am going to make less lineups this week than normal, but I still think this will be a fight I target both sides of, but not heavily. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably go with 1-2 Bhullar and 2-3 Adams. If I was making just one GPP lineup I would probably fade it.
Winner – Arjan Bhullar via Unanimous Decision
Matt Sayles $9,100 vs Kyle Nelson $7,100
Matt Sayles
Age: 25
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: California
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 215
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -230
Matt Sayles is making his second UFC start. He lost a very close decision I thought he won vs Sheymon Moraes. Sayles is highly touted & the protege of Dom Cruz. He is a very good striker. He is light on his feet and has great in and movement. He has a very nice jab & heavy, low leg kicks. He has a nasty overhand right, and it’s very accurate. He will skip into range with a clean straight-right hand, and then slide out of the way of counters. He has a hands down style and uses a lot of lateral footwork and head movement defensively. He is very good at slipping the jab & countering with a right straight or left hook. He uses a lot of fakes and feints especially with his kicks. He will fake the front kick to the body and throw an overhand or throw the front kick to the body. He will throw nice spinning back fists & elbows. He is very calm in the cage and takes shots very well. He stays right in your face and has great cardio. He keeps a very heavy striking pace and doesn’t get tired. He is good at attacking the body with hooks and straight punches as well. He systematically breaks opponents down as fights go on. I have seen him dropped & recover quickly. He has 6 KO/TKO’s in 7 wins.
Sayles is a good grappler both offensively and defensively but doesn’t like to hang around on the ground on top or on bottom. He gives his back to stand up and does a great job of bellying down and getting up. He is good at catching kicks & putting opponents against the cage. He has nice elbows & knees to the body in the clinch. He will shoot doubles against the cage. Against George Hickman he was reversed when going for a rear naked choke & dominated a bit on top. He got his back taken & almost got rear naked choked but stayed calm. He was beat up from mount as well but will never quit, was always moving & eventually regained guard & rode out the round. I think Sayles is probably the better wrestler, but Nelson is more dangerous in top position. Sayles has no submissions & has never been finished. His two losses are decisions that easily could have went his way. Sayles is going to want to get inside. Early on, I think he will try to back Nelson up & control him against the cage. Nelson is dangerous early & probably going to be even more powerful at 145. If Sayles can take some pop out of his shots early I think he has a good chance to break him down. I think in the latter two rounds, Sayles will be able to get inside, land body, head combinations, and leg kicks. He should look to use his jab, straight-right & front kicks to close the distance. He has a big cardio edge & I feel he will definitely win the third round if it gets there. I think the latter rounds he will be able to start walking Nelson down & putting it to him.
Kyle Nelson
Age: 28
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: House of Champions MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 327
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +190
Kyle Nelson had a very tough debut. He had to take on Carlos Diego Ferreira on short notice, and fared well, but was ultimately finished. Nelson looks to be fairly well-rounded. Nelson has a solid jab & good straight-right hand. He will throw nice one-twos. He has a good, counter left hook. He has a very nice step-in knee to the body. He has nice leg kicks, along with front & round kicks to the body. He will throw a nice left hook, right uppercut combination. He comes out fast & is dangerous in round one. He has good power & forces a lot of opponents to shoot bad takedowns due to his pressure. He was putting it to Diego Ferreira a bit before gassing out. He does seem to slow way down in round 3. He has 3 KO/TKO’s all in round one. 6 of his 8 finishes are in round one. He was TKO’d for the first time in his last match.
Nelson is a solid grappler. He doesn’t go for takedowns very often or the clinch. He will shoot reactive double legs on occasion. He has good takedown defense, will reverse, and take top position. He does let fighters get in on his legs & against the cage. I feel higher level wrestlers will be able to take him down. He has heavy elbows in top position & good control. He will cut opponents up with big elbows. He will progress to mount and likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes. The fighters he has beaten on the mat are not very high level. He was finished with G&P against Diego Ferreira & taken down fairly easily. Nelson has 4 submissions & has never been submitted. I see Nelson trying to use long range attacks & lateral movement to keep Sayles on the outside. He needs to throw a lot of front kicks & step-in knees to the body, along with jabs & straight punches. I think he will be the bigger fighter, and a big 145er. In round one I see him having a speed & power advantage. I think if he can’t get a finish in round one he will try to grapple. I feel he needs to try to finish the fight in round one, for the best chance to win.
I was let down in Sayles’ first UFC fight and I thought he should have won that fight but never really pulled the trigger. Kyle Nelson is a solid fighter as well and I think the line is a bit too wide on this one. I would say it is a dog or pass fight on the betting line at this point, but I do think Sayles is the better fighter and the more dangerous guy as well. I think this fight mostly takes place on the feet and I think Sayles will be the guy landing at the higher pace with the harder shots. He could get a finish here but think this goes to a decision and I see it being closer than the odds indicate. I think Nelson is a live dog here, but I will pick Sayles to get it done by a close split decision.
On DraftKings, I would say my preferred pick is Nelson. If you are paying down for the cheap fighters, he would be one of my top choices. However, I am not big on this fight for DraftKings. I think Sayles should be the better fighter I just think he needs a finish to pay off his $9k price tag. Any win from Nelson would likely put him in contention for being on the $25k lineup so that is why I would prefer him. I think either side could be used for cash as well because I do have this going all 3 rounds and I think they have solid floors.
Winner – Matt Sayles via Split Decision
Nordine Taleb $9,300 vs Kyle Prepolec $6,900
Nordine Taleb
Age: 37
Height: 6’3
Weight: 170
Reach: 75”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: France
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 94
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -335
Nordine Taleb is looking to bounce back from back to back losses. He has been finished in back to back fights & needs a win to guarantee a spot in the company. He was supposed to fight fellow veteran Siyar Bahadurzada, but now is taking on Kyle Prepolec who is making his UFC debut in his home town. Taleb is the more technical striker in this matchup. He uses smart pressure, long range attacks, and countering to win fights. He has a nice jab & is good at moving in & out. He will throw a jab, left hook & has nice one-twos. He has leg kicks. He will counter as he moves backwards with a powerful left hook. He keeps heavy pressure on opponents & is usually always controlling the center. He has powerful front & round kicks to the body along with head kicks. He finished Danny Roberts with a head kick. Taleb is a bit flat footed as well, but he is quicker and lighter on his feet. He will walk his opponents down at times and likes to keep heavy pressure and high guard, popping his jab out there while trying to bait you into throwing, so he can pull counter with his right hand. He likes to catch kicks and throw a follow with a right hand down the pipe. Taleb has power with 7 KO/TKO’s & has been finished just twice but was TKO’d 7 months ago.
Taleb is very strong & a decent grappler. He is a brown belt in BJJ under Firas Zahabi. He is good at denying the clinch & exiting with a big knee to the body or elbow. He doesn’t go for takedowns much but will reverse & get on top. He will also shoot double legs when he can back an opponent against the cage. He has a good sprawl and is good at denying clinch entries. He is very physically strong & I don’t see Prepolec out muscling him like he has to smaller opponents. Taleb is methodical & very heavy on top. He likes to pressure pass to dominant positions such as side control. He has heavy elbows when he lets them go. He is also good at catching kicks & dumping opponents. He can have lapses in judgement in grappling scenarios. He ended up on his back against Oliver Enkamp, by being too aggressive in a scramble. In his fight vs Claudio Silva, he went for an ill-advised leg lock attempt, gave his back & was submitted shortly thereafter. Taleb should look to just deny the grappling if it happens & keep it standing. He has no career submissions & has been submitted twice, both by submission artists. Taleb is going to be the bigger fighter with more UFC experience, along with having a full training camp. His back is against the wall & he needs this win. Taleb should look to walk Kyle down & counter. I feel he is sharper, faster & bigger & when he connects Kyle will feel it. He should try to walk Prepolec down with his jab, straight punches, kicks, & then try to pull counter when Prepolec returns. He can get a bit tired in round 3, but he has much more experience at this high level. If Taleb can keep it standing & stay sharp, he has a good chance of winning.
Kyle Prepolec
Age: 29
Height: 5’9
Weight: 170 (Debut)
Reach: N/A
Gym: Maximum Training Centre
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 218
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +275
Kyle Prepolec is taking this fight on short notice. He is coming off a victory over former UFC vet Cody Phister. This will be his first fight ever at 170 lbs., he has fought at catch weights recently like 165 & 160 lbs, but never at 170. Prepolec doesn’t look very big on film to me. He fought Alex Ricci who fought Paul Felder in the UFC at 155 lbs & looked a little smaller than him. Taleb is a big 170 so the size discrepancy will most likely be massive. Prepolec is aggressive on the feet. He has a solid jab & good inside, outside leg kicks. He likes to walk opponents down, while looking for a left hook or body kick. He has a nice straight-right hand with solid power on it. He will also throw heavy uppercuts. He is diligent with his body attack. He will throw big hooks & straight punches to the body. He will throw solid head kicks as well. He will throw extended combinations when he backs opponents against the cage with hooks & uppercuts as well as attacking the body. He is a bit crazy with his attack & leaves his chin in the air wide open to be countered. He tends to stand right in front of opponents when he throws offense & doesn’t move his head much. He will attack with spinning back fists and has a spinning back fist knockout on his record. He has solid lateral movement, but he can be backed up towards the cage. Overall as a striker, I would say he does have an opportunity to do some damage at 155 lbs & I like his body attack. Prepolec has 7 KO/TKO’s, but mostly due to body attacks. He has a strong chin & has never been finished by strikes. He will eat shots to give his own.
Prepolec will try to mix it up at times although he is predominately a striker. He will shoot doubles when he backs opponents to the cage & works fast on top. He likes to get the back or mount & finish the fight with a barrage of G&P. He was dominated with wrestling early in his career in a fight I saw vs Alex Ricci, but he looks to have improved his takedown defense. He has very strong hips & is able to throw opponents around a bit. He will attack with heavy elbows & hammerfists when opponents are in on his legs. He does a good job of reversing takedown attempts & getting on top himself. He will attack with a guillotine to defend takedowns & does a good job of using it to snap opponents down & take top position. When he does get taken down, he tries to stand up by giving his back and has had it taken multiple times. He was able to dominate a relentless wrestler & win the wrestling in his last match against Cody Phister. He has been submitted twice early on in his career once against Kevin Lee. Prepolec has two submissions himself. I see Prepolec going for broke here, going forward, trying to land that left hook body shot & take it to Taleb. He is going to be at a reach disadvantage & needs to get inside and work his boxing to have the most success. If he can back Taleb up he should try to mix it up & take Taleb down.
We get two fights in a row with a Kyle fighting, and unfortunately, I am picking against both. Prepolec is making his UFC debut here on short notice and up a weight class. I think he just took this fight because it is in Canada and it got his foot in the door. If he takes this short notice fight, then the UFC will likely give him a fight at his regular weight class at 155 lbs. I think he is going to need a knockout to win this fight and I don’t see that happening. I see Taleb being the better fighter everywhere here and he should be a lot stronger and should be able to get this fight where ever he wants it. I think he likely plays it safe with this short notice fight and I don’t see him taking any/many unnecessary risks. I think he cruises to a decision win here, but he could get a knockout as well.
I don’t have much interest in either side of this fight for DraftKings. Taleb is the pick but his $9.3k price tag is too high for me, so I would need more than 20 lineups to use him most likely. I would say Prepolec is the preferred play, but I really don’t prefer him either. I think this will be a fight I have very little ownership to and hope it is a Taleb decision win. I may even full fade this fight. I think Taleb is a decent cash option, but I’d much rather have Chiasson for $100 more. I think using him as a lower owned GPP pivot away from her could be the move, but I would rather have her there as well personally.
Winner – Nordine Taleb via Unanimous Decision
Aiemann Zahabi $9,000 vs Vince Morales $7,200
Aiemann Zahabi
Age: 31
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Tristar MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix:
Last Fought: 1 Year 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -155
Aiemann Zahabi is returning after a long layoff. He hasn’t fought in a year & a half, but it was probably good he took the time off. He was knocked out brutally in his last match, where he was out for several minutes. It was the first loss of his career & it may be a career changer. Zahabi is obviously going to be the home town favorite, with a little extra due to his famous brother Firas. I am a fan of Zahabi’s movement. He has a long stance, is light on his feet & very good in & out. He is constantly feinting his lead hand, while using head & body movement. He has very good eyes & will see shots coming, slip & return with nice combos. He can be caught leaning back at times. He will also constantly switch stances & give opponents different looks. He has a nice jab & good one-two. He will throw a double jab, right uppercut combination. He has a decent counter left hook. He will throw a nice straight-right hand, left hook combo. When he can pull counter, he can slip & rip with nice combinations & will mix in head kicks. He has solid front kicks to the body. He has good forward pressure & can pick up the pace when he sees opponents slowing down. He isn’t the most athletic fighter and takes shots to get inside. His defense was better against Ramos, but ultimately, he was knocked out cold late in the fight. Zahabi does have solid power, rocking both of his UFC opponents & having 4 KO/TKO’s in 8 wins.
Zahabi looks to be a very good Jiu-Jitsu player. He is good at using his punches to get inside & dig double underhooks. He has solid control against the cage and will attack with elbows & knees. He will try to go for body lock takedowns, but overall his wrestling, both offensively & defensively is his weak point. If he’s taken down, he is very good at creating scrambles. He has an excellent butterfly guard & will use it to take top position. He had some awesome scrambles with elite BJJ black belt Ricardo Ramos. I see him trying to get takedowns in this match, and he does usually come in ready to execute a game plan. Zahabi should try to use smart pressure, back Morales up against the cage & try to clinch him up early. If he can get a takedown I see him having a big BJJ advantage. He needs to use more long-range attacks in this fight, throw front kicks to the body, long, straight punches & jabs, and use those shots to back Morales up to get inside. I think as the fight goes on it favors Zahabi & he has better cardio.
Vince Morales
Age: 28
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: American Free Fight MMA
From: Oregon
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 368
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +135
Vince Morales is coming off a tough loss to Yadong Song in his UFC debut. Morales is a good striker. He is light on his feet & has a wide, hands down stance. He has fast, crisp hands, nasty punching combinations and extremely accurate. He has a sick jab and he will double and triple it up. He will paw the jab out to land the straight-right hand and it is clean and powerful. He has a nice, short left hook, and in the pocket will unload with clean punching combinations. He likes to land the long, leaping right hand if he has his opponent backing up. His counter left hook backing up is nasty and when he lands clean he can finish the fight. He is aggressive and keeps a good pace. He will throw hooks to the body, and the occasional leg kick. He has decent head kicks. He has a questionable chin and when he gets clipped he will wobble in a lot of fights. He has good ability to recover and keep going. He showed a strong chin against Yadong Song & took a lot of big shots. Morales is definitely dangerous with 5 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Morales isn’t a grappler, and very rarely will ever go for takedowns or initiate the clinch. He was a former wrestler but doesn’t use it in MMA. If fighters initiate the clinch on him, he has really improved his takedown defense, and he is very hard to takedown. He does a great job of sprawling on double legs, and not letting fighters cement position if they do get him down and bouncing right back. He circled to the back and got a slam takedown in his last Bellator match. He also has great ground & pound after he drops opponents and gets brutal knockouts. He has two submissions and was submitted in his lone loss. He has finished all but one of his fights & is just 1-1 in decisions. He has a questionable gas tank & seems to slow down considerably mid-way through round 2. Morales is going to be the longer, faster, more athletic fighter. He needs to use his lateral movement to walk Zahabi into his boxing combinations. He has big power & I see him being able to cut off Zahabi & make it hard for him to find his range, if he’s sharp. He needs to be ready to sprawl & deny the clinch. If Morales comes in sharp, with a better gas tank, he has a good chance to win the fight.
Zahabi is the brother of the well-known coach of Tristar Gym, Firas Zahabi. He is a well-rounded fighter and I think the rightful favorite. Especially with this card taking place in Canada where Tristar is located. Morales is a solid fighter as well, but I expect him to be looking for a knockout here. It could be a somewhat close fight I just think Zahabi will be the slightly better fighter everywhere this fight goes. Morales could win a judge’s decision by throwing more output, but I think a KO is his best path to victory in Canada. I have to favor Zahabi to get his hand raised here and it could be a finish on the feet or the ground, but I think this goes all 3-rounds.
On DraftKings, Morales would be my preferred play. I don’t see Zahabi paying off his salary without a finish, so I don’t think I will have much, if any, exposure to him. Morales does have finishing ability and any win from him could win somebody $25k. Him and Nelson would probably be my favorite cheap GPP punts for the week, I just think both lose so I won’t be too invested to either. I think it’s another solid cash game fight because I think it goes all 3 rounds, but overall, I won’t be rostering much of this fight. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably fade Zahabi and have 1-2 Morales.
Winner – Aiemann Zahabi via Unanimous Decision
Macy Chiasson $9,400 vs Sarah Moras $6,800
Macy Chiasson
Age: 27
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Louisiana
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-0
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -700
Macy Chiasson is looking to continue her ascend to the top of the division. She won her second UFC fight, and first BW fight, via first round finish & has a lot of hype surrounding her. She is the biggest favorite on the card at -600. Chiasson is only 5-0 & very early in her career but has shown flashes of amazing potential. She has a great frame & is very tall & long for the division. Chiasson has good hand speed. She throws nice one-twos and has pop on her shots. She will throw a double jab, overhand right. She has hard body kicks & nice head kicks. She has a nice front kick to the body as well and was landing her body kick at will in her last match. She will throw long, lead left hooks. She will throw spinning heel kicks. She is still green, but athletic & powerful with a lot of potential. She dropped Pannie Kianzad with a lead elbow & left right hook combination. She landed a left hook, right hook, left hook combination that dropped Gina Mazany in her last fight. She is a bit of a plodder & does take shots coming forward. She doesn’t move her head & is rather easy to hit with shots. She is definitely more comfortable fighting in the clinch & on the ground. With her making the drop down to 135 lbs it will be interesting to see if she still has the speed to get inside and take shots over time. She has good power & three KO/TKO’s in her pro career. She has never been finished by strikes as a pro but was finished once as an amateur.
Chiasson is a strong grappler, and very dangerous in the clinch. She has nasty knees to the body & head from the Thai plum. She has big power in those shots & finished Leah Letson on the show with knees to the body. She has nice elbows to the head. Her height & reach give her very good control in that position, and she’s able to dominate her opponents. She will duck under & look for double legs. On top, she likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes. She is able to take the back off sprawls when she defends takedown attempts. When she takes the back, she is very long, has great control and can slip the arm under the chin quickly. She finished Pannie Kianzad with a rear naked choke in her last match to win TUF. She has good takedown defense, and good get-ups. She will get butterfly hooks & does a good job of transitioning into double legs as she gets up. She has finished 4 consecutive fights. She has 2 submissions & never been finished by submission. Chiasson shouldn’t go to the ground in this match. She should look to work her long range striking, such as her body kicks, jabs & hooks. I think she will have a big speed & power advantage over Moras, but just needs to be sound defensively. If she is getting touched up a bit at range, she should have an advantage in the clinch. I think she is the physically, stronger fighter with the better, more dangerous clinch technique. She may be able to brutalize Moras in the clinch & stop the fight.
Sarah Moras
Age: 31
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Xtreme Couture
From: Canada
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: 27
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +500
Sarah Moras is going to try to stem the tide in her home country. She has lost two fights in a row & should be desperate for a win here. Moras is 2-1 in Canada but coming off a decision loss in Moncton her last time out. Moras is a grappler, who is an armbar specialist. She is very aggressive on the feet, and likes to close the distance with wide hooks, and she will throw a head kick after the hooks at times. She will try to throw a check left hook. She also has decent leg kicks. She has good power, and she can rock fighters on the feet. She is very tough and has the ability to walk through shots and give her own. She has never been finished in her career, but she was dropped multiple times vs Lucie Pudilova. Moras has 3 submissions & has been submitted once herself. She has very good cardio and usually has a good round 3.
Moras is a solid grappler as well. She has good double legs, but she also lacks the drive on her shots as well. She will attack with singles as well. When she gets on top she likes to work from guard mainly and just land short G&P to control the round. She can get bulled over and end up on her back off her takedown attempts, but she is comfortable there. She has a nice guard and a very good armbar. She is a savage in the cage & has 0 problems snapping someone’s arm in half. In her fight with Ashlee Evans-Smith, she broke Smith’s arm, and was happy about it in her post fight speech. She can be controlled on her back and other than the armbar, she isn’t very dangerous. If you can pass her guard, she lays flat & doesn’t offer much. I think Moras should try to use her striking to create takedown opportunities. She should be aggressive with her striking though. She will have some openings to land some counters & if she can land clean & stun Chiasson early, she could change the outcome of the fight. If she can get on top, I don’t know if she will be able to control Chiasson, but I don’t see her submitting her from top position. I could see her get dropped & then when Chiasson follows up getting an armbar or getting an armbar off an ill-advised takedown from Chiasson. She needs to be opportunistic & look to finish the fight for the whole 15 minutes.
Chiasson is the biggest favorite on the card and for good reason. She should be levels above Moras here and the only way she loses is by getting submitted. Moras is not great at getting fights to the ground though so Chiasson should be controlling where this fight takes place and I think she is a lot better anywhere it goes. I see here stuffing takedowns and destroying Moras on the feet. I think she gets a finish in this fight and I would guess that it comes in round 1 or 2. I was looking at Chiasson ITD at -240 but The Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is -245 so I would rather just pay for that if I am going to go that route. I do think she is a great parlay piece as well. She should be able to get a win here with no real sweat.
Chiasson is the only fighter I will be rostering in this fight and I want a lot of her. I would actually be pretty surprised if she didn’t finish this fight and I think it could come in round one. Her ITD line is -195 and to win in round 1 is +130. She is also a lock for my cash lineup because she is by far the safest play on the board. I do think she has a good chance of outscoring everyone in the $9k range so I will have her in half or more of my lineups most likely and I will full fade Moras. Even with 150 lineups I would likely still full fade Moras. If you can afford Chiasson, throw her in. Unless you want to be contrarian, then just leave salary on the table.
Winner – Macy Chiasson via 1st round (T)KO
Andrew Sanchez $8,700 vs Marc-Andre Barriault $7,500
Andrew Sanchez
Age: 31
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 76”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Missouri
UFC Record: 3-2
Fight Matrix: 62
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -160
Andrew Sanchez is a 5 fight UFC veteran & TUF 23 winner. He is coming off a great performance, defeating the tough Maluko Perez. Sanchez is a solid kick boxer with very good hand speed early. He has a good jab, and a strong overhand right he is very accurate with. He will jab to the body and then come over the top with the right hand. He has strong hooks in the pocket and will start with the left hook and then just swarm with big hooks and explosive power. He had Ryan Janes is serious trouble early with punching combinations. When he is going forward and being the aggressor, he is good. He can get his front kicks to the body going and then throw a big head kick and finish the fight. When he gets pushed backwards he looks very uncomfortable and is flat footed, and just tries to wing punches full power to get his opponent off him. He can get very wild and loopy with his punches and get off balance. His main problem is his gas tank, he gets absolutely exhausted and just becomes a punching bag. He is tough and showed that against Ryan Janes, absorbing punishment all of round two before being finished in the third round. He will start to just look for one looping punch and finish or sloppy takedowns. He also brings his hands extremely low and gets tagged with big shots and that’s why he has been finished two times in round 3. Sanchez has 6 KO/TKO’s but is a bit chinny. He has been taken out by strikes, in 3 of his 4 losses & 2 out of his last 3 fights.
Sanchez has decent double leg takedowns and will drive his opponents towards the fence. He will try to work the clinch, land knees and go for takedowns. He does a good job of exiting the clinch with short, powerful punches. On top, he is a bit of a blanket, and couldn’t even finish a guy like Khalil Roundtree taking him down all 3 rounds. Sanchez has good BJJ credentials, but he doesn’t seem to have the best MMA BJJ. He got swept and controlled by Anthony Smith and I actually think Barriault is more dangerous in top position. Sanchez has just two submissions in the first two fights of his career. I think Sanchez will be the aggressor early. He could potentially bag two rounds and then win a decision, but I believe he should look to finish early. I think he is a bit quicker & should try to start fast with his striking. He should look to land his right hand, leg kicks and look to get takedowns. I feel Sanchez has to be able to mix it up & rest in top position to have a chance to win this fight.
Marc-André Barriault
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 73”
Gym: Patenaude Kung-Fu
From: Canada
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 63
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: +140
Marc-André Barriault will be making his UFC debut with some fanfare. He is a two division MW & LHW champion in the Canadian Promotion TKO. He has back to back KO/TKO’s & is getting a chance to beat a pretty formidable opponent in his debut. Barriault tries to be a more technical striker & slow down the pace. He has a good jab both to the head & body, and a nice left hook. He will throw a left hook, straight-right hand. He will throw a left hook, right hook, right uppercut combination. He has good hand speed & does a good job of going over & around opponent’s guards with combination punches. He has decent footwork, but he can be flat footed at times & is heavy on his lead leg. He will allow opponents to back him up and can shell up at times when opponents get aggressive on him. He does have big power & has knocked out his last two opponents. He has 8 KO/TKO’s overall. He has never been finished.
Barriault is an average grappler in my opinion. He is strong in the clinch. He has nasty knees to the body & will throw heavy uppercuts and hooks to the body. He has a solid double leg. He likes to just control top position & win the round. He is heavy in half guard & will slow cook opponents with short punches & elbows. He will try to trap an arm & let shots go. He has a decent back take. In his last match, he took the mount, showed strong control & finished his opponent brutally with punches & elbows. Barriault’s takedown defense is questionable. He can be flat footed & fighters are able to close the distance & push him against the cage rather easily. He can be out muscled in the clinch, and I have seen him get tossed head over heels more than once when fighters take his back standing. He will attack with a kimura to counter the attempt or create a scramble to stand up. He has improved his takedown defense, has good balance & the ability to bounce right back up to his feet. Fighters who have explosive double legs are able to get them. When he gets put flat on his back, I think he can be potentially exploited. I see Andrew Sanchez trying to take him down & he has to be ready to stop the takedowns. Barriault has no submissions. He has experience fighting 5 round fights, and his cardio isn’t amazing, but not bad. Barriault is going to want to stuff the takedowns & control the center of the cage. He can’t allow Sanchez to back him up. He has to stand his ground & use his takedown defense & boxing to out strike Sanchez.
Barriault will be making his UFC debut here and he is facing a former TUF winner in Sanchez. This looks to be a striker vs grappler match and Barriault is going to need to keep this on the feet to win. If he can keep it standing, then I would favor him because he does have the striking edge along with KO power. Sanchez is going to be looking to get this fight to the ground though and he is pretty active at going for takedowns. I think he shoots for them early and often in this fight and as long as he lands them and doesn’t gas out, I think he wins this fight. He is a solid wrestler and I expect him to be able to win the first two rounds of this fight. We have seen him gas late into fights though so that could happen again here and maybe he gets knocked out late. That is a possible outcome, but I am going to lean with Sanchez to pick up a judge’s decision here with a wrestling heavy game plan.
On DraftKings, this is a fight I like to target both sides of. My preferred play is Sanchez and I think he is playable in all formats. I think he has the 2nd most takedown upside on the card and if he uses it like he has in the past then he has 100-120-point upside even in a decision. I plan on being overweight to Sanchez and I have thought about playing him in cash as well. He does have a low floor though because the way Barriault wins this fight is by knockout, and that is why I want to roster him. I think he is a live dog here and if he can stuff takedowns he is the more dangerous fighter on the feet. This will be a fight that is likely in half or more of my lineups and I will probably be pretty evenly split on the two. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably have 2-4 of each.
Winner – Andrew Sanchez via Unanimous Decision
Walt Harris $8,900 vs Serghei Spivac $7,300
Walt Harris
Age: 35
Height: 6’4
Weight: 258
Reach: 81”
Gym: Spartan Fitness MMA
From: Alabama
UFC Record: 4-6-1
Fight Matrix: 51
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: 1 NC
Betting Odds: -155
Walt Harris had a lackluster performance in his last match. He was awarded a decision against Andrei Arlovski, in which I think he lost. It was even further marred, when it was changed to a NC due to a USADA violation. He was only suspended four months due to it being a tainted supplement, so he was vindicated by USADA in terms of not intentionally cheating. Harris is a great athlete, and packs huge power. Harris has a good one-two, and his right hand is powerful. He will throw a decent jab. He will throw a jab, right hook as well, as an overhand right lead. He has good hand speed, and in close range will let go with hook combinations. He likes to throw check left hooks. He has good inside leg kicks, and hard body kicks. He will go to the head with kicks as well. He will throw front kicks to the body. He likes to switch stances to cut off the cage, and he is always going forward, controlling the center. He is the better athlete in this matchup and is going to be the faster fighter in there. He can sometimes not bring his hands back up after he throws punches in the pocket and can get hit with clean, counter punches. When Harris lands he is a finisher and will close the show. All 11 of his finishes are by way of KO/TKO. He is 5-3 in his second run with the UFC. He has been TKO’d twice.
Harris has been rounding out his game and improved his grappling. He landed a nice single leg takedown against Mark Godbeer and moved right into mount. He was able to takedown Arlovski with a single but couldn’t hold him down. He has good knees to the head in the clinch and attacked with a front choke against Shamil Abdurakhimov. He has great ground & pound especially when he can hurt an opponent. He lands huge elbows, punches and is relentless with the barrage. He has improved his takedown defense and has not been taken down by anyone except Fabricio Werdum on 24 hours’ notice in his last 7 fights. Harris was taken down by a single leg very easily and dominated on the mat before being submitted very quickly. He is hard to hold down and does a good job of bellying down & standing up, but it does give opponents like Werdum the opportunity to take the back. I think Spivak will be able to exploit that and take the back as well, so he has to be careful. Harris tends to slow down when forced to grapple, and he needs to have his cardio on point in this matchup. Harris has really faced no one who had tried to grapple with him besides Fabricio Werdum. Harris is going to want to start fast & get that first round knockout. He needs to try to come out fast, use his superior athleticism, force Sergey to brawl & try to take him out. He needs to control the center & not allow Sergey to back him up or force him into grappling scenarios.
Sergey Spivak
Age: 24
Height: 6’3
Weight: 241
Reach: N/A
Gym: Polar Bear Team
From: Ukraine
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 70
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: +135
Sergey Spivak is making his UFC debut as an undefeated prospect. He is taking this fight on short notice replacing Alexey Olienik. He has fought some well-known names in the sport already such as Tony Lopez & Travis Fulton. He has never been out of round one and is 9-0 with 9 finishes. This will also be Sergey’s first fight out of Ukraine, Moldova, or Russia, so he hasn’t had a ton of career experiences yet. Spivak looks tall & long on the feet. He will stick a jab out there & has a nice one-two. He has a nice jab, right hook. He has fast hand speed & likes to throw shots to get inside mostly. He will throw nice head kicks. He is very good when he backs opponents against the cage. He does a good job of measuring opponents and staying at his range. He will throw nasty, standing elbows. He has great cardio & can throw a huge amount of volume out there without getting tired. Spivak has 4 KO/TKO’s & doesn’t get hit much. He does stand heavy on his lead leg & can be leg kicked. He also didn’t deal well with pressure in one fight, but it was early on in 2015. I am impressed with his volume for a heavyweight, but he isn’t the greatest athlete & his striking is to close the distance.
Spivak is a strong grappler. He is nasty in the clinch. He will close the distance with punches, throw an elbow & then land brutal knees to the body & head. He is very good in top position. He has nice body lock takedowns & when he’s in top position, he will rain down big shots from the guard. He is good at ducking under when his opponent throws a shot & getting strong position in the clinch. He will stand up in opponent’s guards & throw down big, straight punches & hammerfists. In his last match, he battered Spivak against the cage in the clinch & then took him down with a head & arm throw, directly into a neck crank & submitted him. He has a nice clinch & will throw a ton of volume with punches & hanmerfists. He will attack with armbars from the mount & is fast in scrambles. He has a nice kimura. I am pretty impressed with him on the mat & if he can get in the clinch or top position against Harris, Harris could be in trouble. Spivak is going to want to close the distance and beat Harris up against the cage & on the mat. If he can get on top of Harris, I think he has a chance to finish with G&P or a submission. I also feel he will have the better cardio & volume. He hasn’t fought anyone with the range or athleticism of Harris & if he can’t get inside or control Harris in the clinch he could be in trouble.
Sergey is making his UFC debut here and is facing a big step up in competition. His road to the UFC was pretty much just facing a bunch of non-intimidating 40-year-old fighters. That won’t be the case here. Harris will be his first stiff test and a dangerous one as well. If Harris pulls the trigger in this fight, I think him winning by knockout is the most likely outcome. If he doesn’t, he will either lose or make this a very boring fight. I am going to pick him to get the win here and I am hoping it doesn’t go all 15-minutes. This is the easiest fight Harris has had in a long time, so I expect him to be hungry for a KO win and I think he gets it.
This fight has the highest FDGTD line at -265 and that is what makes it one of the better fights to target. I don’t see this fight taking place at a high pace from either guy, so it’s purely the KO we are relying on. My preferred play here is Harris and I actually think he is playable in all formats, but I prefer GPPs of course. I think Spivak has the highest ceiling of all the cheap fighters though so if you wanted to go higher on him I wouldn’t talk you off it. I could see this fight being the most boring fight of the card though and going all three rounds to a decision that won’t help anybody with DK points. For that reason, I won’t be heavily invested to either side here. I do think Harris gets the KO and has a good chance of being on the optimal lineup, but he will also have a lot of ownership and that might keep me from being overweight on him. I could see me being underweight on both sides here, but it is a good fight to target both sides of if you are MMEing.
Winner – Walt Harris via 1st round (T)KO
Merab Dvalishvili $8,600 vs Brad Katona $7,600
Merab Dvalishvili
Age: 28
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 68”
Gym: Serra-Longo MMA
From: Georgia
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 65
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -160
Merab Dvalishvili looks to be a very good prospect in the UFC. He is only 1-2 in the UFC but could very arguably be 3-0. He had a fight vs Frankie Saenz, where I thought he clearly won, and a controversial finish loss against Ricky Simon. Merab was beating Simón soundly, who in my opinion is an elite fighter. Merab is a grinder, who is nonstop. He has tremendous cardio & fights at a breakneck pace. Merab Dvalishvili is a beast. The pressure and pace he brings to his fights is unbelievable. He has a good jab & a nice one-two. He will throw a jab, uppercut & his uppercut is hard to see coming due to his constant wrestling threat. He dropped Ricky Simon with an uppercut. He has a nice left hook in close range. He will throw hard hooks in combination in close range. He has nice kicks, he throws good leg kicks, nice front kicks to the body and will go up top as well. He will throw a lot of spinning attacks, he has a spinning back fist KO in his career and will throw spinning heel kicks as well. He has good superman punches. He is very fast in and out and I think his opponents are surprised at his speed and pace he can keep. He isn’t the most technical fighter on the feet, and he is available to be hit, but he usually is the one controlling the center of the cage and throwing first. He can throw un setup leg kicks at times & return his hands slow in the pocket. He needs to be careful not to get hit clean with a left hook from Katona. When he is going forwards, he is usually winning. When he gets a fighter backing up he will put heavy pressure on his opponents & swarm. Merab has two knockouts & has never been finished.
Merab is a great wrestler and is very strong in the clinch. He has great doubles, single legs, and he drives through and gets takedowns with force. He has a strong body lock and will get a lock around the waist circle to the back and suplex you or just drag you to the mat. He catches kicks and gets takedowns as well, and he can continue to take you down over and over without slowing down. He is excellent & staying connected when opponents stand up and returning them to the mat. He will try to jump on the back from that position as well and can sometimes get a little too overzealous & get shucked off. He has gotten 10+ takedowns in all 3 of his UFC fights. He had 22 takedowns against Frankie Saenz & 12 vs Ricky Simon, both college wrestlers which is ridiculous. He hasn’t shown the ability to hold fighters down and his UFC opponents have been able to stand up from under him after he took them down. Obviously, he has proven that he has the cardio to get continuous takedowns even if he can’t cement position. In his last match against Terrion Ware he was able to keep top position & beat him up with big elbows from full & half guard. He in my opinion knocked himself out off a takedown against Ricky Simon and was rolled over into a guillotine. It was a very weird and controversial finish as he never tapped, but they gave Simon the technical submission victory. His takedown defense is very good & he denies them easily. When he was taken down by Simon he was able to stand back up quickly. Merab has one submission victory & has only been submitted once. He is more of a grinder & wins via decision. This is going to be a great fight, both guys have tremendous gas tanks. Merab is going to have to stay connected to him. I think on the feet he will have some success, but he needs to wrestle. He is going to want to get the double, stay connected when Katona tries to stand up, return him to the mat, and just dog him out. I think Merab throws the more volume & will be going forward, pushing the pace which will look good for the judges. He needs to avoid giving Katona big moments, like dropping him or getting him in a submission, and get inside to guarantee a decision victory.
Brad Katona
Age: 27
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 64.5”
Gymo: SBG Ireland
From: Canada
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 37
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: +140
Brad Katona is undefeated & getting another step up in competition here. He won TUF 27 at 145 lbs, and then dropped down to 135, for his second UFC fight defeating Matthew Lopez via decision. This is definitely a step up in competition for Katona. Katona is a well-rounded fighter. He’s light on his feet & good at moving in & out. He has nice inside, outside leg kicks & throws them early & often. He likes to walk opponents into his punches with lateral movement. He has a nice left hook & good straight-right hand. His left hook is powerful & he dropped Jay Cucciniello with it twice. He has a nice overhand right. He will throw a left hook, right uppercut & left hook, right hook combos. He will attack the body with straights & hooks. He has nice body & head kicks. He does a good job of feinting to create opportunities to pull counter. He is also good at hand fighting with his lead hand. He doesn’t move his head much & his entries can get timed with counters. He can be hit with jabs & straight punches, and his defense does leave a little bit to be desired. It seemed like Lopez didn’t throw a ton of volume, but whenever he threw he seemed to land. He is very composed, even when he eats a big shot & has a great chin. He isn’t a huge knockout threat with only one in his career.
Katona is a good grappler. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu. He is a good wrestler as well, but I don’t think he has the same level of wrestling that Merab does. He has good timing on double legs & has good drive to finish. He likes to use a single leg to drive opponents to the cage. He will lift & slam his opponents with a high crotch single. He is excellent at reshooting if he can’t get an initial takedown & has very fast entries. He has good top control & good floating ability. He will move to dominant positions as opponents try to stand up and is very good at taking the back. He was able to get a rear naked choke submission against Bryce Mitchell. He attacked with a tight guillotine in that match as well. He can be taken down himself with well-timed double & single legs. He will attack off his back with nice armbars & triangles. He has good get-ups and was able to stand up quickly, multiple times against Matthew Lopez. He was able to gas Lopez out due to this. Lopez is a fighter who is known for cardio issues, while Merab is known as the opposite. Katona listens to his corner very well. Katona was able to lock in a rear naked choke with less than 10 seconds left & looked like he choked out Lopez, but it went to decision. He has excellent cardio & is able to get stronger as the fight goes on. He has 3 submissions in his career. Against Merab, I see him wanting to stick & move. He will try to use his lateral footwork to walk Merab into his left hook & straight/overhand right. He should look to throw a lot of leg kicks, and then try to go the head later in the fight. He needs to set the kicks up well, because Merab will try to catch them. If he can keep this fight standing over 3 rounds he most likely will win the fight. He is the cleaner striker with better composure. If he is taken down, he should try to stand right back up. He shouldn’t go for submissions, unless they are readily available or work to sweep. Merab is too good on top to risk the chance of him getting to a more dominant position. If he can continuously get up right after Merab takes him down, he could potentially gas him out. If he sees an opening to put Merab on his back late in a round to seal it, he should take it as well. Katona though if he is to win, I see it being largely due to his striking, footwork & ability to get back up to his feet when taken down & wearing out Merab.
I think this fight will come down to if Katona can stop takedowns or consistently get back to his feet. In a striking match, I would favor Katona here. He throws more volume on the feet and he lands at a much higher accuracy as well. He doesn’t really have knockout power though, so he will likely need to win a decision here with his striking. I just don’t see that happening. I think he will spend too much time on his back to be able to win a 3-round fight here against Merab who lands 7.33 takedowns per 15-minutes. With Katona only having a 42% takedown defense I have to think he will be taken down multiple times in multiple rounds and I think Merab wins at least 2 rounds with his takedowns to get a decision win here.
On DraftKings, Merab is one of my favorite plays on the board. Not because I am confident in him winning, but because I am confident he scores well if he does win. At $8.6k, we don’t even need 100+ points from him but he has that potential even with a decision win. I think we could see double digit takedowns from him and those will add up. I would be pretty surprised if he didn’t get more than 10x with a win here. Merab is 1-2 in the UFC and Katona is 2-0, but Merab still averages more DraftKings points. I will be overweight to Merab here and I don’t see me having much Katona at all. Even if he wins I don’t see it scoring highly unless he gets a finish and I would rather just invest in other fighters around his price range. Merab is playable in all formats though and he will be highly owned as well, but that is chalk I am willing to eat.
Winner – Merab Dvalishvili via Unanimous Decision
Shane Burgos $8,800 vs Cub Swanson $7,400
Shane Burgos
Age: 28
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Tiger Schulmanns MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 4-1
Fight Matrix: 39
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -170
Shane Burgos is getting an opportunity to get a win over a legend. Cub Swanson has fallen on hard times losing 3 consecutive fights, but he is still a huge name & it looks like the UFC wants to give Burgos a name win. Shane Burgos is a great prospect. He is a slick striker out of Team Tiger Schulman, with a lot of confidence. He has a nice jab and a good overhand right. He keeps his hands low, but he has good head movement and will slip and return with counters. He does a good job of rolling with shots, but he was getting hit clean with straight punches and jabs in his match vs Calvin Kattar. He was also dropped in his last match vs Kurt Holobough. He has nasty hooks to the body, and his constant forward pressure wears his opponents down. He has decent inside leg kicks and front kicks to the body but doesn’t throw many kicks. He likes to counter with combinations in the pocket and he does a good job of making opponents pay for throwing punches. He has a very clean lead uppercut. His cardio is fantastic, and he simply doesn’t get tired. He has shown a good chin throughout his career and relies on it with his style. He got knocked out for the first time in his career vs Kattar, and then dropped by Kurt Holobough, so hopefully it doesn’t become a recurring theme for him.
Burgos is not an offensive wrestler and won’t engage in the grappling much. He does a good job of reading level changes and lowering his level to defend them. He does a good job of limp legging out of singles or getting to the cage and circling out. When he hurts opponents, he likes to get on top and find the rear naked choke, but those were early in his career. In his last match, he was dropped, but immediately threw up & armbar and got a submission when his opponent went to follow up with G&P. He has 0 takedowns in his UFC career. Burgos will be looking to keep it on the feet and put the pressure on Swanson. He is the crisper, longer fighter and if he can keep the pressure high, force Cub to go first & counter he has a good chance to get a knockout. I think he has the faster hand speed & will make Swanson pay with counters. He has a nasty jab which I think will play a factor in this match. He attacks the body well & keeps the pressure high. He needs to be careful about walking in with his hands low because Cub throws a lot of looping overhands & hooks. Burgos is willing to get hit to walk his opponents down & give his own. Swanson had a lot of knockouts early in his career, but none since 2013. I just think Burgos is bigger, more hungry, younger & I see him trying to walk Cub down & break his will. I think if Burgos gets Cub against the cage, he will unload to the body & then go for the kill to the head.
Cub Swanson
Age: 35
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Killer Cub Camp
From: California
UFC Record: 10-6
Fight Matrix: 24
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: +150
Cub Swanson badly needs a win here. He is 35 years old, and has lost three consecutive fights, being finished in two. He has been fighting top 5 opponents & this is a step down. Swanson is a range striker, with good boxing & kicking skill. He has a very nice jab. He will throw a jab, slip his head off center line & then follow with a big overhand right. He has great movement & is always switching stances & giving different looks at range. He likes to use a lot of lateral movement & walk opponents into combinations. He is good at throwing a left hook to switch to southpaw & circle off the cage. He likes to walk opponents into big looping hooks or overhands from both sides & will mix in head kicks after those shots. He will throw himself out of balance with punches at times but is brilliant at using that to spring right into a kick. He has strong uppercuts in close range. When he lands a shot, he is great at feinting with it to keep opponents thinking when it’s going to come again. Swanson will also attack the body with straight punches & big kicks when he’s in southpaw. In his last two matches he has seemed a bit gun shy. He will throw a lot of range finding leg kicks, but he didn’t throw much else. When he’s in the pocket after he throws, if opponents return right away, he is there to be countered. Renato Moicano was able to catch him as he tried to crash the distance with long range shots, eventually dropping him & taking him out. I don’t think he has the same speed, explosion, or even durability he once had. Swanson has still only been finished by strikes one time in his career. He has 11 KO/TKO’s himself, but none since 2013. He did have a run in the UFC where he had 4 KO/TKO’s in 5 fights.
Cub Swanson has always struggled with grappling over his career. He has had problems with takedown defense & submission defense. Swanson won’t really go for many takedowns himself. He can sometimes shoot double legs from range, and counter with hip toss takedowns in the clinch. He can be reversed when going for the throw & end up on his back. His takedown defense has improved. He has been taken down in recent fights and was able to keep it on the feet with Frankie Edgar in the rematch. I don’t see either fighter looking to grapple in this matchup. Swanson has been submitted in two of his last three fights. He was caught in a standing guillotine against Brian Ortega and dropped & rear naked choked against Renato Moicano. Both of those fighters are black belts. Swanson is a black belt himself but has been submitted 7 times. When he’s taken down he will attack with submissions, but mostly just to stand up. Swanson only has 2 submissions in his career & none in the UFC. In this fight, I see Swanson wanting to move, use lateral movement, stance switching & fight at range. I think he will try to walk Burgos into hooks, overhands and look for head kicks. I see him attacking with that low calf kick and trying to just stick & move. When Swanson gets confidence, he can get very fun to watch. He will be creative by throwing crazy spinning techniques & cartwheel kicks. If he can get his range early on, he could piece up Burgos over 3 rounds or even maybe take him out.
Here we have an up and coming prospect fighting an old school accomplished UFC vet. I think if Cub was still in his prime this would be an awesome fight and a pretty close one. Where Cub is now in his career, I think this is Burgos’ fight to lose, and the only way I see him losing it would be by knockout. I think Burgos is the better striker and on average he lands 2+ more significant strikes per minute than Cub does. He also has 100% takedown accuracy and a 94% takedown defense. So, I think this fight stays standing, and I like Burgos a good bit in a striking battle. He is going to have a 5-inch reach advantage here and he uses it well. He has one of the best jabs in the sport and Cub was dropped by a jab in his last fight that ultimately led to him being finished. I see Burgos picking Cub apart here and I think he ends it with a knockout at some point. If he doesn’t get the KO, then I still feel good about him winning a decision as well. I think Cub’s best chance is to get the knockout himself or turn this into a war and hope to win a crazy hard to score brawl.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Burgos. I think both sides are solid targets though and they can be targeted in all formats. I think this will be a fun fight, but I see Burgos landing the harder, cleaner shots, and I think he lands them at a higher volume as well. I think Cub is a solid cheap target as well because if he wins it will be from a knockout or a wild war like the Korean Suberboy fight. I think ownership could come along with his name though, so I will be underweight myself. I will go overweight to Burgos though because I like him more than the $9k guys and I think he could get a finish as well. I would prefer Merab for $200 cheaper and if you are choosing between the two for your last spot with $8.8k left, I would just leave the money on the table.
Winner – Shane Burgos via 3rd round (T)KO
Derek Brunson $8,200 vs Elias Theodorou $8,000
Derek Brunson
Age: 35
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 78”
Gym: Hard Knocks 365
From: North Carolina
UFC Record: 9-5
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -110
Derek Brunson has been knocked out in round one of his last two fights. He needs to win here to keep his job in the UFC. He has moved his camp to Hard Knocks 365 for this fight & has some good sparring partners, such as Luke Rockhold. Brunson was broken before the fight started in his last fight and lost before he even stepped in the cage. When your mental game isn’t right, it’s extremely hard to win, and it’s hard to gauge what Brunson is thinking these days. Brunson is a big, strong, explosive athlete for this division with one punch knockout power. He is extremely dangerous in the first round. He comes hard, blitzes and throws huge overhand rights. He almost attacks with a reckless abandon which has gotten him a ton of first round finishes against lesser competition but gotten him in trouble against the elite of the division. Brunson will throw the occasional leg kick and front snap kick, while also trying to gauge distance with the jab. He sometimes doesn’t set things up and will just lunge in. He does do a good job of faking level changes in between blitz combinations making him harder to read. He does have fast hands in the pocket and will throw straight punches with both hands with bad intentions. When he has a fighter hurt he really will swarm and go for the finish. He has big power with 10 knockouts, but all of them are in round 1 and after that he slows down. He has a solid chin, but bad defense, and enters the pocket with his chin high and hands low making him an easy target. He has been finished with strikes 4 times in his career.
Brunson is a former division two All American Wrestler. He has become more of a striker in recent memory & hasn’t really used his wrestling much at all. He unsuccessfully tried to takedown Adesanya 14 times. He was 4 of 20 vs an old Anderson Silva & couldn’t hold him down. Brunson has 4 takedowns in his last 10 UFC fights all vs Anderson Silva. Brunson likes to close the distance and get the single collar tie where he is strong and will land nice, hard uppercuts and short hooks. He has fast hands and can throw in combination making him dangerous even if his opponent is in a dominant clinch position like the Muay Thai plum. He has a decent double leg, but he telegraphs it and shoots from too far outside at times. When he does get in on the legs, he is hard to stop from taking you down and is a strong guy. He does a good job of grabbing a single leg then going up to the body lock clinch, driving his opponent to the cage and getting a double leg. If he can get on top, he has solid ground and pound, and will rain down punches and elbows. He likes to get to the back and get the rear naked choke, but he isn’t a huge submission threat with just three in his career. He has never been submitted. He does get tired as the fight goes on and 21 of his 26 fights have been finished in round one. He is 3-2 in decisions and has been finished in round 3 by Yoel Romero. Everyone knows what Brunson is going to look to do here. He is going to want to get in there, land his left hand & get him out in round one. We have seen Brunson fight a similar style opponent, who is probably more dangerous with better footwork in Lyoto Machida & he was able to get the first-round knockout. He has to swarm Elias, get him moving backwards, cut off the cage & close the show. Theodorou is very sloppy at times with his striking & he doesn’t possess the power to really make Brunson respect him I don’t think. If Brunson can close the distance & land early, he has a great chance to get the first-round knockout. I feel if he can’t get the finish in round one, his odds of winning decrease significantly, but he is the better fighter everywhere in this matchup besides cardio & durability.
Elias Theodorou
Age: 30
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: Grant’s MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 8-2
Fight Matrix: 18
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -110
Elias Theodorou is coming into this match on a three-fight winning streak, while winning 5 of 6 overall. Theodorou is a point fighter who likes to use a lot of kicks, and timely grappling to win decisions. He constantly switches stances and stays in kicking range. He is always gauging, and controlling distance by fully extending his lead arm, throwing kicks and moving. He very rarely even throws punches, and never wants to be in boxing range. He throws inside, outside leg kicks and front kicks to the body. He will throw the front kick to the legs also, and a lot of round & sidekicks to the body. He will throw occasional spinning kicks to the body & head. He will also throw jumping round house kicks to the body. He is always moving, and he can throw the kicks from both stances, making him a hard puzzle to solve. He has a lot of wasted movement and tires himself out by being too sloppy on the feet. When fighters explosively close the distance on him, he can become very defensive and back up to the cage where he can be exploited. He isn’t dangerous on the feet, and fighters don’t really have to worry about getting dropped or KO’d on the feet by Theodorou. He has 5 TKO’s but those are on the ground. He has a great chin, and big heart, never being finished in his career.
Theodorou is a gritty fighter, and tenacious with his grappling. He will tie fighters up when they close the distance on him, and he does a good job of grinding on fighters in the clinch. He has nice shots off the break, and it’s one of the rare places he will throw punches. He will throw occasional jabs, lead elbows and uppercuts, but I see him just kicking & moving this fight. He has no problems throwing short uppercuts and punches in the clinch as well. He does a good job of getting in on a body lock clinch and circling to the back where he has decent suplexes and takedowns. He does a good job of pummeling against the cage and digging underhooks where he has good control. He can be controlled against the cage as well and can struggle to get his back off the cage if fighters get in dominant position. He will make it a dog fight, continue to land shots on the break, re clinch and make fighters work when he feels them slowing down. He is hard to takedown, but he doesn’t have great takedowns himself either. Theodorou prides himself in his cardio, and he can go hard all three rounds. For this fight, early on I think Elias should try to make Brunson work. He should try to get him in the clinch & take away some of that explosive power. If he can extend the fight to the later rounds, I think that’s when his movement, range & rhythm breaking shots could be more effective. Early on, I think Brunson is going to be very fast & explosive and just be able to walk through Elias’ shots & be the superior athlete. If Elias can get him a bit tired & make the athleticism even, then he can start to take over with his superior cardio & volume. Theodorou needs to avoid getting backed up to the fence because that is where he is in the most danger to be hit with a big shot or controlled against the fence.
This is a close fight as the line says, but I slightly favor Brunson here. His biggest weakness has been recklessly trying to knockout his opponents and he keeps his chin in the air when he does that and ends up getting counter KO’d himself. Against Elias, we aren’t really worried about that KO power. Sure, he could get a knockout, I just don’t think it’s going to happen. Elias has ok wrestling he can rely on sometimes as well, but Brunson has 100% takedown defense and is probably the better wrestler of the two. The only spot Elias really has the edge in is output. And if he wins, it is likely going to be a decision because he threw more volume. Most of his volume is to just stay busy and keep his opponents at range, but it works in the judge’s eyes. I think Brunson is going to be pressuring him here and hunting for that knockout. I don’t see him worrying about Elias’ power compared to the opponents he has been facing recently and I think Brunson can win this fight by KO or by landing the harder shots and getting a decision win that way. I also think if there are takedowns in this fight it will be Brunson on top and that will help him on the scorecards as well.
On DraftKings, Brunson is the only guy I am interested in here, but he needs a finish. If there is no finish in this fight, it won’t score highly. It will also be over owned because it is the co-main event. I think fading this fight is the best option here, but I will have a small amount of Brunson ownership because I think he can get a knockout. I will likely write Elias up as my fade of the week though. Unless he can knock Brunson out with his pillow fists, he isn’t ending up on that $25k lineup. I have been wrong before, once, but he is an easy full fade for me. I think Brunson is playable in all formats, but I will probably be in line with the field on him if not underweight on ownership even though I am picking him to get the knockout.
Winner – Derek via 1st round (T)KO
Al Iaquinta $8,400 vs Donald Cerrone $7,800
Al Iaquinta
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 70”
Gym: Serra-Longo MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 9-3
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -125
Al Iaquinta has been looking phenomenal lately. He has had an up & down career due to injuries & contract disputes, but his in cage performances have always been good. This will be his 3rd fight in a year, after taking a year off, so he looks like he’s getting back into the groove of things. Iaquinta is 6-1 in his last 7 fights with the lone loss being on short notice to Khabib. Iaquinta is a former college wrestler with heavy hands. He is a boxer, who will use solid footwork and movement. He does a good job of not chasing but cutting off the cage & making it small for his opponents. He will throw occasional low, leg kicks. He has a very nice jab & skips into range with the jab or double jab very well. He has a nice one-two and will throw a nasty jab, right hook combination. His right hand is a brick & can knock opponents out with one shot. He has a good left hook as well, which he was landing on the money against Kevin Lee. He has a good jab to left hook combination. He does a good job of slipping uppercuts into his combinations, and he strings punches together well. When he has fighters hurt, he does a great job of getting the finish. He used to get a bit wild looking for the finish, but lately & especially in his last match, he showed great composure when looking for finish. He really beat up Kevin Lee in round 5 & showed he has the cardio to keep his power through 5 rounds. He has 8 KO/TKO’s in his career, and never has been finished by strikes.
Iaquinta is a former college wrestler, but he prefers to use it in reverse & strike in the UFC usually. He will shoot for single leg takedowns, and double leg to body lock takedowns. He only has 8 UFC takedowns, and not many during his prior win streak. He has good takedown defense. He will use overhooks to deny doubles, and shows good balance moving his back to the cage on singles. He has nice switches and if he does get taken down, he uses a nice butterfly guard. He has fought two of the best wrestlers in the entire UFC in his last two matches. He was taken down & beaten up for a round vs Khabib, and had his back taken by Kevin Lee in one round, but overall has held his own. He was able to stuff a majority of both their takedowns and find his way back to his feet when he was taken down. He attacked with a slick leg lock submission against Kevin Lee. He also was attacking with single legs, just to get Lee to defend & then coming over the top with strikes. He was able to break with a spinning back elbow off a single which landed flush. He has been training at Serra BJJ for years, and I feel that his Jiu-Jitsu & grappling is on another level then when he was submitted last 5 years ago. Al isn’t a submission threat with only 1 career submission in his UFC debut. He has been submitted in 3 of his 4 losses. He needs to keep this fight standing & not give Cerrone the chance for a submission. The game plan to beat Donald Cerrone is out by now & Al Iaquinta has the style to do it. Iaquinta did an excellent job of going forward & cutting off the cage in his last fight. He has to feint his way in & be smart on the exits. He needs to cut the cage off, intelligent pressure & land his boxing combos, while attacking the body. He needs to just use his wrestling in reverse to stay on his feet in this fight though. Iaquinta has several first-round knockouts & everyone knows that Cerrone is a notoriously slow starter. Iaquinta also can go 5 rounds hard though & showed incredible cardio in his last fight vs Kevin Lee. He was pushing the pace like round one in the fifth and broke Kevin Lee. Al needs to get Cerrone towards the cage go to the body & come over the top with his hooks. He has very nice short hooks & short-range power. He can’t allow Cerrone his space & range, or to find his rhythm.
Donald Cerrone
Age: 36
Height: 6’1
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: BMF Ranch
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 22-8
Fight Matrix: 4
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +105
Donald Cerrone looked excellent in his return to 155 lbs. He was an underdog to Alexander Hernandez & spoiled the party with a second-round knockout win. Cerrone went 6-4 in his 10 fights at WW but proved he couldn’t compete with the top of the division. Cerrone is 16-4 at LW & feels he has one more run left in him for the belt. Cerrone is a nasty Muay Thai striker, and his highlight reel of finishes shows that. Cerrone throws vicious kicks, beating up your legs first and then attacking the body and head. He has the most head kick knockouts in UFC history. He has okay hands, but in boxing range he seems like he is nowhere near as comfortable as kicking range. He doesn’t have tight punching or the greatest defense and he can be exploited in boxing range. He does have a nice check left hook in the pocket, and he has gotten better at dealing with pressure fighters. He throws a nice front leg sidekick and stomp kick to the leg. He throws a stabbing front kick to the body and at distance really beats up all parts of the body. He uses takedowns to almost disguise a step-in knee at times and it’s beautiful. He throws a step-in knee after he gets denied the shot and even follows with a head kick to close the combination. In his last match, he was throwing that right step-in knee as a lead & it really stopped all of Hernandez’s forward pressure & success on the feet. Cerrone is going to need to use those weapons to keep this fight out of boxing range. He likes to throw long, straight punches followed by leg or head kicks. When Cerrone can find his rhythm and range, fighters are usually screwed. When he is going forward, he is one of the nastiest strikers in the division. Cerrone has 10 KO/TKO’s, and 6 of his last 7 wins have been KO/TKO finishes. He has been finished with strikes 4 times himself, and, 3 have come in his last 7 fights.
Cerrone has long been an underrated grappler. He has always been very dangerous with his Jiu-Jitsu, but he has improved his wrestling immensely in recent years. Cerrone has gotten much more wrestling heavy in recent fights, and it’s a smart thing to do since he is getting up there in age. Cerrone has good timing on double leg shots, and he also has good body lock takedowns. On top, Cerrone is good, he has strong top control, and he likes to get to the back. He gets most of his submissions after he stuns and drops his opponent. He is very good at jumping on the back and locking in the rear naked choke. He has good takedown defense himself and is hard to hold down. Off his back, he is very dangerous. He has nasty triangles, and armbars to go along with very nice sweeps. He does a great job of getting omaplata sweeps in the guard and will reverse top position. He has 17 submissions. In his last match, he was able to get a couple takedowns early, which let him regain his bearings & slow down the fight. I don’t know if he will be able to bail himself out with takedowns against a very solid defensive wrestler like Al Iaquinta. Cerrone is a finisher having finished 12 of his UFC wins and last 6 overall. He has good cardio and had a good showing in a 5-round fight vs Leon Edwards last year. For Cowboy, he is going to need to control distance. He needs to use his step-in knees & front kicks to keep Iaquinta outside of boxing range. He was doing a great job of following the step-in knee with a straight-right or left hook after throwing it. If he can get his timing with his long-range straight punches, that’s when he becomes deadly. He will mix in nasty low kicks after those combinations, and when you are thinking low then he goes high with the head kick. If Cowboy finds his range & rhythm, he will start to throw video game like combinations & can beat any fighter in the world. I do see Cerrone looking to wrestle a bit if the fight goes long, and if he can get takedowns on Iaquinta it will be a game changer. Cowboy does tend to start slow & Iaquinta has several first-round knockouts, so he has to be careful not to get caught could in round one.
I expected Cowboy to be favored for this fight, honestly. I think he is the better fighter everywhere, except for maybe power and chin strength. He does sometimes struggle against pressure fighters and I would think Iaquinta’s game plan would be to pressure from the start. I guess that is why he is favored, people are thinking he knocks him out with that pressure and heavy hands. I can see that happening, but I still wouldn’t favor Iaquinta here. I think he needs to get the KO to beat Cowboy here even though he is very well-rounded. I just think Cowboy is better everywhere and more dangerous as well. I think if Iaquinta does pressure Cowboy too heavily then Cowboy will shoot for takedowns. Iaquinta has been submitted by three lesser opponents in the past and I think that is what happens again here. I see Cowboy getting this fight to the ground and I think he finishes with a RNC submission. I think he will also have moments on the feet and he could knock Iaquinta out as well, I just think even if he does drop Iaquinta he probably looks for the RNC finish instead of going to the ground and pound. If this fight goes all 25-minutes I would slightly favor Cowboy in that scenario as well and if that is the case I think we will be in for an awesome fight!
On DraftKings, this is an all-in fight. I would be shocked to see the winner not on the $25k lineup and even more shocked if it is Cowboy who wins. He is my preferred play here and a lock in my cash lineup as well as me being overweight in GPPs. I think this fight is stackable in cash as well. Iaquinta’s best path to victory here is a round 1 or 2 knockout, and that will easily put him on the top lineup with his mid-range price tag. I wouldn’t talk you off being heavier on Iaquinta here, but I would try to talk you off fading the fight. With the pace Cowboy brings to fights, the winner is going to score highly, and the fight will score more than 100 total points as well. Load up on this fight, but I will be rooting for Cowboy to get his hand raised.
Winner – Donald Cerrone via 3rd round Submission
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t takedown a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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