Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter talking hockey and football, even a little WNBA. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
The first thing I do when starting my research is look for strong teams facing weak defenses. I want the best odds I can find to tally goals. I like the old Corsi number, as it denotes any shot attempt directed towards the net. It doesn’t matter if this shot attempt goes wide, gets blocked, or finds the back of the twine. You can’t score if you don’t shoot. I also love the “High Danger” metrics. These shots come from the slot (between the dots) and off quick passes or rebounds. They are what they say they are, and teams allowing a lot of high danger chances also tend to give up goals in bunches….perfect for the DFS player to attack.
If you have questions regarding these numbers, or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Simply tag me (same name as my twitter name) and let’s get on the same page. First and foremost, I’m here to teach people wanting to learn the DFS side of this glorious frozen sport.
Detroit Red Wings @ Pittsburgh Penguins
Odds: PIT -305, 6.0 o/u
Detroit Red Wings: DET1 remains hot and in play. Although I feel this is the game the Pens take to clinch the playoffs, so I am not looking to load up on a stack here. Naked Anthanasiou or Bertuzzi is more so where I’m looking for exposure.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Larkin, Bertuzzi, Anthanasiou
Cash viable – Bertuzzi (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – Anthanasiou
Pittsburgh Penguins: Pittsburgh still needs to clinch the playoffs and can do it with just 1 point tonight. I am taking them at home against DET. McCann is back on PIT1 making him almost essential in cash. Malkin is back tonight, raising the ceiling of PIT2 exponentially, and letting you get off the chalkier PIT1.
5 star plays – Guentzel, McCann
4 star plays – Malkin, Crosby, Rust, Schultz
Cash viable – McCann, Guentzel, Schultz
GPP Sleeper – Bjugstad
Ottawa Senators @ Buffalo Sabres
Odds: BUF -185, 6.0 o/u
Ottawa Senators: Back to back on the road, look elsewhere.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Buffalo Sabres: Buffalo has been bad but I am a narrative guy and it is Eichel bobblehead night, that man has to want to end the season on a good note and no better spot to do that on his bobblehead night. Eichel is also one of 8 players in their last 10 games to have over 30 shots. Skinner is 14th in shots over the same span so I am looking to an Eichel/Skinner PP stack.
5 star plays – Eichel
4 star plays – Skinner
Cash viable – Olofsson (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – none
Montreal Canadiens @ Washington Capitals
Odds: WAS -150, 6.0 o/u
Montreal Canadiens: Bleed shots, make shots remains the motto of MTL. Gallagher is the only player in the league with 40 shots over the last 10 games. I like a MTL PP2 stack with Gallagher and Domi so I can have exposure to both lines in the top 6. Petry remains a value and cash lock on FanDuel at $4300.
5 star plays – Gallagher
4 star plays – Domi, Petry, Weber
Cash viable – Petry (FanDuel)
GPP Sleeper – Lehkonen, Domi, Shaw
Washington Capitals: Washington is still playing for positioning in playoffs and the division. They are not a team I am not looking to dump a big percent of my salary on but with guys like Vrana, Wilson, and Backstrom you can get some exposure and not break the bank.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Backstrom, Vrana, Wilson
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Eller, Hagelin, Connolly
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Odds: TOR -108, 7.0 o/u
Tampa Bay Lightning: A team with nothing to play for is not where I desire to look on a 12 game slate.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Cirelli
Toronto Maple Leafs: Same for the Leafs as the Lightning, they have nothing to play for, look elsewhere.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
New York Islanders @ Florida Panthers
Odds: FLA -105, 5.5 o/u
New York Islanders: This is a great spot for the resurging NYI1 with Lee-Barzal-Eberle. A stack of Barzal-Eberle-Toews is great for GPPs at there should be low ownership and they offer tremendous value.
5 star plays – Barzal, Eberle
4 star plays – Toews, Lee
Cash viable – Barzal, Eberle, Toews (NO MORE THAN 2 OF THEM)
GPP Sleeper – Dal Colle
Florida Panthers: As is the case most nights with the Panthers, I am not looking any further than FLA1 who has been playing like the best line in hockey over the last month or so.
5 star plays – Huberdeau
4 star plays – Barkov, Dadonov
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
New Jersey Devils @ Carolina Hurricanes
Odds: CAR -270, 6.0 o/u
New Jersey Devils: The Devils on the road against a good Carolina team trying to make the playoffs on a 12 game slate? No thank you.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Carolina Hurricanes: I still do not understand why they took Svechnikov off of the 2nd line. Alas, there are still Hurricanes in play, Niederreiter has been creating chances at an elite rate over the last couple weeks and he and CAR1 should be able to capitalize on those chances tonight against a weak Devils squad.
5 star plays – Niederreiter, Aho
4 star plays – Faulk, Staal, Williams, Svechnikov
Cash viable – Niederreiter, Aho, Staal
GPP Sleeper – Svechnikov
Boston Bruins @ Minnesota Wild
Odds: BOS -110, 5.5 o/u
Boston Bruins: News just came out about Marchand getting scratched so monitor the Bruins closely if you plan to roster them, which I do not plan on doing.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Minnesota Wild: Before there last game they had scored 6 in their last 10, I am not wasting one of the final slates of the season rostering the Wild.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Philadelphia Flyers @ St. Louis Blues
Odds: STL -205, 6.0 o/u
Philadelphia Flyers: St. Louis is a good team fighting for their division, the Flyers are and have been a bad team not playing for anything.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
St. Louis Blues: Another great spot for STL1 and co tonight. Bozak and Parayko were part of the nuts last night and from THE BOOK “players who are hot will remain hot until they are not.” STL1 rivals CAR1 for my favorite cash line of the night, and I do like a pivot to STL3 (Bozak-Maroon-Thomas) in GPPs again.
5 star plays – Tarasenko, O’Reilly, Pietrangelo
4 star plays – Bozak, Perron, Schwartz, Parayko, Schenn
Cash viable – Tarasenko, Schenn, O’Reilly, Pietrangelo
GPP Sleeper – Bozak, Parayko
Vancouver Canucks @ Nashville Predators
Odds: NSH -240, 5.5 o/u
Vancouver Canucks: The money line is where I believe it should be, no Canucks tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Nashville Predators: Roman Josi remains an elite play tonight in a good matchup partnered with his 2.6 shots a game (3rd for defensemen) over the last 10. Another great D man on the team PK Subban is on a 3 game point streak with 12 shots on goal in those 3 games and can save you some salary if you don’t want to pay up for Josi.
5 star plays – Subban, Josi
4 star plays – Arvidsson
Cash viable – Subban, Arvidsson
GPP Sleeper – Smith
San Jose Sharks @ Edmonton Oilers
Odds: SJ -145, 6.5 o/u
San Jose Sharks: San Jose needs a point or a Vegas loss to lock up home ice in the first round. Matchups do not get much better than Edmonton, SJ2 mini stack with Nyquist and Hertl is what I like the most here.
5 star plays – Hertl
4 star plays – Nyquist, Kane, Burns, Vlasic
Cash viable – Hertl, Nyquist
GPP Sleeper – Thorton
Edmonton Oilers: No McDavid or Edmonton tonight for me, a lot of better teams on the slate with something left to play for.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Winnipeg Jets @ Colorado Avalanche
Odds: WPG -108, 6.0 o/u
Winnipeg Jets: Using salary on the Jets has probably done nothing but cost players money as of late, with no signals pointing up for them and us just chasing past performances, I would look elsewhere.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Colorado Avalanche: The MacKinnon/Kerfoot supreme value stack remains very much in play tonight, along with defensemen shots leader of the last 10 games, Tyson Barrie. Those three together will make for a great low owned stack with great upside. Landeskog is back on COL1 also raising their ceiling.
5 star plays – MacKinnon
4 star plays – Barrie, Kerfoot, Landeskog
Cash viable – Kerfoot (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – none
Arizona Coyotes @ Vegas Golden Knights
Odds: VGK -165, 5.5 o/u
Arizona Coyotes: Vegas is one of the best defensive teams in the league, especially at home. Arizona should be fully eliminated from playoff contention when this one is said and done.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Vegas Golden Knights: Still potentially playing for the 2nd seed, Vegas should roster the squad tonight. Going up against the team who has allowed the least amount of goals over the last 10, I am not looking to the Golden Knights tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
DFS NHL Goalies for Today:
Jordan Binnington (BOTH): St. Louis gets the Flyers at home who are averaging 1.3 goals a game over their last 10.
Petr Mrazek (CASH): The goalie going against the Devils has been the chalk lately and Mrazek is more than deserving of the ownership he shall receive, he should be locked into your cash line ups.
Philipp Grubauer (GPP): The Jets hare 28th in the league in shots and dead last in high danger chances for over their last 10. Grubauer is boasting a .955 save percentage over his last 10 games to boot.