Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter talking hockey and football, even a little WNBA. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
The first thing I do when starting my research is look for strong teams facing weak defenses. I want the best odds I can find to tally goals. I like the old Corsi number, as it denotes any shot attempt directed towards the net. It doesn’t matter if this shot attempt goes wide, gets blocked, or finds the back of the twine. You can’t score if you don’t shoot. I also love the “High Danger” metrics. These shots come from the slot (between the dots) and off quick passes or rebounds. They are what they say they are, and teams allowing a lot of high danger chances also tend to give up goals in bunches….perfect for the DFS player to attack.
If you have questions regarding these numbers, or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Simply tag me (same name as my twitter name) and let’s get on the same page. First and foremost, I’m here to teach people wanting to learn the DFS side of this glorious frozen sport.
Nashville Predators @ Buffalo Sabres
Odds: NSH -200, 5.5 o/u
Nashville Predators: Nashville draws the Sabred and their 29% GF%. Buffalo has been awful and I do not expect them to get a fire in their hearts to finish out the season. Nashville is still playing for the division and home ice so expect them to go all out tonight. Roman Josi is 2nd in shots for defenseman over the last 10, along with a good matchup he presents the highest upside of any defenseman on the slate.
5 star plays – Arvidsson, Josi
4 star plays – Forsberg, Subban
Cash viable – Arvidsson, Josi, Smith (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – Granlund, Turris
Buffalo Sabres: Most goals allowed and the 5th fewest scored over the last 10, do not look to the Sabres tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Boston Bruins @ Columbus Blue Jackets
Odds: CBJ -130, 5.5 o/u
Boston Bruins: Outside of BOS1 I would not be looking to roster anyone else from Boston as they have struggled to produce chances recently. Columbus has also only allowed 1.0 goals a game over the last 10 and they’re at home. You should be able to get BOS1 low owned on this 10 game slate making them a good GPP play but look somewhere else for cash.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Pastrnak, Bergeron, Marchand
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Pastrnak, Bergeron, Marchand
Columbus Blue Jackets: Duchene is now the center in between Atkinson and Panarin raising the ceiling of that line compared to when the center is Dubois. Boston is a tough match-up but the Jackets still need to make the playoffs and I believe they will. Look for CBJ1 to come out shooting tonight.
5 star plays – Panarin
4 star plays – Duchene, Atkinson, Jones
Cash viable – Savard (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – Dzingel, Anderson
Pittsburgh Penguins @ Detroit Red Wings
Odds: PIT -190, 6.0 o/u
Pittsburgh Penguins: Detroit is terrible defensively and PIT1 is arguably the best line in hockey, look to them for your cash builds. PIT2 is also in a good spot and shouldn’t see the Larkin line much, Blueger is dirt cheap and has the upside with Kessel and McCann on his wings, Blueger is my GPP play of the night. Bjugstad is now on PP1, making him a sneaky value option.
5 star plays – Blueger, Crosby, Guentzel
4 star plays – Schultz, Bjugstad, Rust, Kessel
Cash viable – Crosby, Guentzel, Schultz, Rust, Bjudstad, Blueger
GPP Sleeper – Bjugstad, Hornqvist
Detroit Red Wings: Penguins should work the Red Wings all night, DET1 has been hot lately but outside of that, do not look to roster the Wings
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Larkin, Bertuzzi, Mantha
Tampa Bay Lightning @ Montreal Canadiens
Odds: TB -125, 6.5 o/u
Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa chalk went off last night and Kucherov looks like he is determined to get the record. Montreal is still playing the bleed chances make chances style of hockey and if any team can beat you while doing that, it is Tampa Bay.
5 star plays – Kucherov, Gourde
4 star plays – Stamkos, Joseph, Sergachev
Cash viable – Joseph (Value Play), Gourde, Kucherov, Sergachev
GPP Sleeper – Cirelli
Montreal Canadiens: Brendan Gallagher is 1st in shots for and iHDCF out of all skaters the last 10 games and Shea Weber is 1st in shots for defensemen during the same time period, stacking those two gives you the skater and defensemen with highest goal upside.
5 star plays – Gallagher, Weber
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Gallagher, Weber
Carolina Hurricanes @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Odds: TOR -125, 6.5 o/u
Carolina Hurricanes: The Maple Leafs are on a B2B and are one of three teams to give up 30 or more goals over their last 10 so look for Carolina do some damage tonight. Sadly, Svechnikov is no longer on CAR2 and was replaced with Ferland which hurts their upside, so I am looking at CAR1 tonight. Nino is 3rd in iHDCF over the last 10 so a mini stack of Aho and him is the way to go.
5 star plays – Niederreiter, Aho
4 star plays – Hamilton, Williams, Faulk
Cash viable – Niederreiter
GPP Sleeper – Svechnikov
Toronto Maple Leafs: Hard not to roster Nylander as he is 2nd in shots for over the last 10 games and at his price, he offers tremendous value. Matthews is right behind at 3rd in the league and his 4th in iHDCF, those two could be the best mini stack on the slate.
5 star plays – Matthews, Nylander
4 star plays – Tavares, Marner, Reilly
Cash viable – Matthews, Nylander
GPP Sleeper – none
Winnipeg Jets @ Minnesota Wild
Odds: WPG -110, 5.5 o/u
Winnipeg Jets: Winnipeg has not been able to put the chances together recently, Ehlers and Laine are the only plays here that pop out. Minnesota is making teams earn their chances and Winnipeg isn’t making them, unless you are playing them because they are low owned there isn’t much here to make you want to roster the Jets.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Ehlers, Laine
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Ehlers, Laine
Minnesota Wild: Winnipeg might not be creating chances but they are not bleeding goals as they are top 10 in goals allowed. Minnesota has only scored 6 goals in their last 10 games making them a no go for tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Philadelphia Flyers @ Dallas Stars
Odds: DAL -170, 5.5 o/u
Philadelphia Flyers: Dallas has been good, Philadelphia has not, you do not need to read much more into it than that.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Dallas Stars: Seguin and Radulov are 6th and 7th in shots for and Philadelphia is allowing the most shots in the league right now, those two are tremendous plays tonight. Janmark is the beneficiary of playing next to those two making him an elite value option.
5 star plays – Seguin, Radulov
4 star plays – Janmark, Heiskanen
Cash viable – Seguin, Radulov, Janmark (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – Hintz, Benn
Edmonton Oilers @ Colorado Avalanche
Odds: COL -170, 6.0 o/u
Edmonton Oilers: Edmonton only posted 19 shots last night against Vegas and with them officially being out of playoff contention I’m sure those boys had more Vegas fun than they needed too. You can never go wrong rostering the best hockey player on the planet in McDavid but I do not believe you should be playing anyone from Edmonton tonight, even him.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Colorado Avalanche: Edmonton is an abysmal excuse for a hockey team and I expect Colorado to capitalize off of that. MacKinnon and Kerfoot are a nice mini stack that you can use to help you pay up elsewhere. Soderberg and Landeskog make a nice GPP pivot as most players rostering Colorado are going to take the MacKinnon, Kerfoot route. Barrie is averaging basically 3 shots a game over his last 10, making him a great option to stack with one or two of MacKinnon, Kerfoot or Landeskog for PP1 exposure.
5 star plays – MacKinnon, Barrie
4 star plays – Soderberg, Landeskog, Kerfoot
Cash viable – MacKinnon, Barrie, Kerfoot (Value Play)
GPP Sleeper – Soderberg, Landeskog
Los Angeles Kings @ Arizona Coyotes
Odds: ARI -210, 5.0 o/u
Los Angeles Kings: Drew Doughty said he wishes they can play all their remaining games in a row so that this season can just be over with. A team with that attitude isn’t one I am looking to roster, especially against a team that has only given up 9 goals in their last 10.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Arizona Coyotes: It’s hard to want anything to do with a team that is only averaging 1.0 goals a game over their last 10 and they do not get to play against the worst goalie in the league Jonathan Quick tonight. Outside of Kuemper, this game is a complete fade for me.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
San Jose Sharks @ Vancouver Canucks
Odds: SJ -150, 6.5 o/u
San Jose Sharks: San Jose has their series set for the playoffs and their skaters have a lot of miles on their tires, I’d expect players to be rested and the minute distribution to not be what it regularly is. With better teams with something to play for on this slate, I am not going to be looking San Jose’s way tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Vancouver Canucks: The Sharks are one of three teams to allow 30 or more goals over their last 10 games. On top of them basically having nothing to play for, Pettersson and Boeser pop out as a good mini stack, has been the case for most of the year with Vancouver, I am not looking to go outside of Pettersson, Boeser, and Edler in regards to my exposure to this game.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Pettersson, Boeser, Edler
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Pettersson, Boeser
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
DFS NHL Goalies for Today:
Darcy Kuemper (BOTH): Darcy has been lights out with Arizona only allowing 15 goals in his last 10 starts. The Kings have given up on the season from the sounds of it and Arizona is still technically in playoff contention, the money line is where it should be for this game.
Anton Khudobin (GPP): The Stars are top 5 in goals allowed over their last 10 and have had good underlying numbers to boot, I believe this team should take Philadelphia to work tonight and come out with the W
Sergei Bobrovsky (GPP): Only allowing 10 goals in their last 10 and finally giving Panarin and Atkinson the first line center they deserve in Duchene, if they can keep BOS1 in check tonight the Blue Jackets should have no problem pulling out the W.