BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 7 Location – St. Petersburg, Russia
Thanks for purchasing my UFC Fight Night 149 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Russia. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to win a lot of money from this week considering it is a smaller card and starts at 10:15am ET. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I will try to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw 100 or so entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Magomed Mustafaev $8,500 vs Rafael Fiziev $7,700
Magomed Mustafaev
Age: 30
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 year 5 months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +100
Magomed Mustafaev is making his UFC return after a long layoff. He hasn’t competed since losing to Kevin Lee in November of 2016. I’m not sure why he took such a long time off. He is a Russian combat sambo master of sport & a bad dude. He is not there to make friends & goes for the kill. All his wins are via finish & in the one fight that went to decision in his career, he lost. He is training in Dagestan for this fight but is more of a striker. He has 0 takedowns in 3 UFC fights. He is a power striker. He likes to walk opponents into his shots & is very explosive. He has a nice straight & overhand right. He has super-fast hand speed and can rock opponents in exchanges. He will throw very nice uppercuts. He has a nice left hook. He likes to pull fighters into spinning back kicks, punches, & flying knees. He has heavy round kicks to the body & throws with a ton of power. He tends to lose some speed & explosion midway through the first round but is still dangerous after, just not quite the same. He is aggressive & hittable. I think on the feet unless he gets a quick knockout he probably will be a step behind. He does have huge power & can’t be slept on. He has 8 KO/TKO’s. He’s never been finished by strikes.
Mustafaev isn’t much of an offensive wrestler, but he looks to be ok in the clinch. He will throw hard elbows & knees. He will drop down for singles, but it seems as he almost just does that to create opportunities to land off the break. He is good at throwing straight punching combinations with his free hand while he has ahold of a leg against the cage. He has 0 takedowns in the UFC, but you have to think it will be a part of his game plan here. He is training in a wrestling Mecca in Dagestan & definitely has the training partners to sharpen those tools. I have seen him in M-1 global fights immediately close the distance & get body lock takedowns. He looks to be very aggressive on top. He pressure passes & will throw heavy G&P. He will look to get to side control & get the crucifix. He is solid in scrambles & I feel he probably can keep top position if he takes Rafael down. He was taken down quite a few times by Piotr Hallman and submitted by Kevin Lee. He does have good takedown defense though, and even has a win over Khabib’s brother Abubakar Nurmagomedov. I have seen him counter with a kimura & will jump for the guillotine. He is very active in his guard when he’s taken down. He will throw up very fast triangles and armbars & is pretty hard to hold down. He has 4 career submissions & has been submitted twice by rear naked choke. Mustafaev should look to get a quick takedown & test Fiziev’s ground game. If he can exploit him on top & get a quick finish, that’s the best-case scenario for him, but either way it will give Fiziev something to think about. If he can mix it up I see him potentially being able to land some nice shots on the feet. I do think the likelihood that Mustafaev gets a knockout especially after round one is pretty unlikely.
Rafael Fiziev
Age: 26
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: N/A
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Kyrgyzstan
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 198
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -120
Rafael Fiziev will be making his UFC debut. He is an elite Muay Thai striker. He has over 200 amateur Muay Thai bouts & is 29-4 as a pro in Muay Thai. He won a silver medal in the World IFMA Muay Thai championship. He went pro in MMA in 2015 and is now 6-0. He has finished all 6 of his wins via KO/TKO. He is very light on his feet and has great distance control. He has amazing head movement & slips and rips excellently. He has nice leg kicks, heavy body & head kicks. He has a very nice straight-right hand & a devastating left hook. He has a very nice counter left & right hook moving backwards. He will slip & return with a left hook, straight or overhand right. His ability to slip & rip is elite & he is famous for avoiding head kicks, like he is in the matrix. He will throw nice round & question mark kicks to the head himself. He will throw nice spinning back fists. He will throw nice flying knees. He has a head kick, body kick, and flying knee KO. He has one shot knockout power. He is very aggressive, but technical, not allowing many opportunities for his opponent to hit him. He doesn’t tend to throw in combination much, unless he has an opponent hurt or on the back foot. He will slowly break opponents down to the legs & body, throughout the fight. If he can keep fights standing, he is going to be trouble for a ton of UFC guys. He has 5 KO/TKO’s in 6 MMA fights.
Fiziev looks strong in the clinch. He digs nice underhooks & will throw hard knees & elbows to the body and head. He will grab the plum clinch & throw knees as well. I haven’t seen him attempt many takedowns or defend many. In his most recent fight he did go for an unsuccessful takedown & was able to defend a single. Overall, there has been very limited tape on his ground game & wrestling ability. He does have one career rear naked choke. I do think his fast twitch muscles, footwork, and counters will make it hard for fighters to get in on his legs. He is very experienced in fighting in combat sports & won’t gas or be overwhelmed by the moment most likely. He is going to want to try to keep this fight on the feet & get a knockout. If he can keep it standing over 3 rounds his technical superiority will prevail. He needs to be ready to make Mustafaev pay for takedown attempts & stay off his back.
This is a fun curtain jerker. This is a talented fight and actually one of the fights on the card I am looking forward to the most, so I am surprised to see it as the first fight on the card. Both fighters have dangerous striking and I think this fight should play out on the feet. I think Mustafaev would be the more likely fighter to look for takedowns, but he loves to stand and throw bombs as well. Either fighter could get a knockout, but I am going to side with the underdog again in this fight. I was very impressed with his striking skills and if he can avoid the knockout then I like him to either get one of his own or win a decision by being the more active striker, throwing the better shots and getting his hand raised from the judges.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Fiziev and we have some decent value on him now as well. He is currently a slight favorite on the betting line, but we still get him at an underdog price on DraftKings. I always love targeting the first fight and I will take shots on both sides, but I will be fairly heavy on Fiziev this week and I think he is a lock in my cash lineup with this new value we are getting. I think this kid has some serious skill and he could get a knockout here which would give him a decent chance at being on that $25k lineup. I would guess he will be in over 40% of my lineups this week and I will probably only have a few hedge lineups with Mustafaev. I do expect Fiziev to be popular now so targeting Mustafaev in GPPs at lower ownership isn’t a bad idea.
Winner – Rafael Fiziev via 2nd round (T)KO
Michal Oleksiejczuk $8,800 vs Gadzhimurad Antigulov $7,400
Michał Oleksiejczuk
Age: 24
Height: 6’0
Weight: 205
Reach: 74”
Gym: GKS Górnik Łęczna MMA
From: Poland
UFC Record: 2-0
Fight Matrix: 34
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W10
Betting Odds: -210
Michał Oleksiejczuk is returning fairly quickly after an impressive knockout of long time UFC veteran, Gian Villante. Michal Oleksiejczuk is a southpaw, power striker who comes forward & puts a lot of pressure on opponents. He isn’t the most athletic fighter, but he has technical boxing & fast hands. He is a bit of a plodder, but he does a good job of staying loose with his hands & body movement. He will use a lot of fakes & feints. He doesn’t move his head much & can get hit with big shots. He has fantastic durability & will just eat the shots, and return. He has a nasty overhand left & left hook in the pocket. He will throw nice one-twos down the middle. He does an excellent job of attacking the body with left hooks & straight-lefts. He will throw a jab, left hook to the body or a left straight to the body, right hook combination. He does a great job of blocking & returning in the pocket and has good defense in close range. He has nasty round & front kicks to the body. He keeps a massive amount of volume out there & will not stop coming forward. His pace & body attack really tired out Khalil Roundtree, and finished Gian Villante, so he has a lot of confidence tipping the body. He can get hit as he enters with overhands, and he takes shots to give shots with his style. Oleksiejczuk has huge power and has finished 9 of his wins by KO/TKO. He has only been finished by TKO one time in his career.
Oleksiejczuk isn’t much of a grappler and won’t look to be offensive with takedowns very often. He showed off some good fight IQ, catching a kick and taking Khalil Roundtree down in round 1, when he was most explosive. He wasn’t able to have much top control time or do damage, but it shows he can follow a game plan and fight smart. He took him down again with a nice single leg in round 3, and in this round, he showed more top control. He was able to land some nice elbows, and body shots from full guard, and kept Roundtree grounded. He has good takedown defense himself, but I have seen opponents get inside on him & take him down. He is young & knows that’s all Gadzhimurad wants to do here, so he should be getting a heavy dose of wrestling training. He trains with Robert Roszkiewicz, who is a former Juco national wrestling champion in the USA and needs to be able to not only be ready to deny takedowns, but to get-up off his back & survive hairy situations. I feel if he can survive the initial grappling storm of Antigulov, his cardio is elite & that will be a massive advantage in this fight. I have not seen much of Michal off his back. He does have 1 submission & been submitted once himself. I think early on in round 1 Michal needs to respect the grappling of Antigulov. He has to move & try to keep his distance while potshotting Antigulov & making him pay for entering inside. If he can survive round one then Oleksiejczuk needs to put the pressure on Antigulov, throw body shots & wear him out. The constant forward pressure & volume of Michal definitely will wear on Antigulov as the fight goes on. I feel if Michal doesn’t get finished in round 1 there is a high likelihood he takes the win.
Gadzhimurad Antigulov
Age: 32
Height: 5’11
Weight: 205
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Gorets FT
From: Russia
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 66
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +175
Gadzhimurad Antigulov will be looking to bounce back in his home country. He lost to Ion Cutelaba by knockout snapping a 14-fight win streak. Antigulov is the typical Russian fighter, he likes to close the distance, get inside, take you down and take you out. He keeps a fast pace and has heavy pressure. He has a nasty straight-right hand. He closes the distance extremely quickly with it and it’s fast, accurate and he puts people’s lights out with it. He doesn’t have much else on the feet, and his primary game is to get the fight to the ground by any means necessary. He has 4 KO/TKO’s mostly by ground & pound. He has been finished by strikes 3 times in his career, including his last time out.
Antigulov doesn’t stay out in space long, he will close that distance and try to get a single leg or get in the clinch. He has a good single against the fence & in space. He is good on the ground and dangerous with submissions. He was able to catch Pezao de Lima in a guillotine very early and tap him out. He will try to take the back and get a rear naked choke. He is very aggressive, fast and effective early with his grappling. He tries to take opponents down & take them out in round one. 17 of his finishes are in round one, and he has none in round 3. He tends to gas badly after the first 3.5 minutes and looks for a way out. He has been finished in all 5 of his losses. He has 15 Submissions & has only been to decision once in 25 fights. Antigulov has no secret game plan. He is going to want to try to land a punch, into a takedown get on top & finish the fight early. If he can get a hold of Michal’s neck or get dominant position in round one the fight could be over.
This is a striker vs grappler matchup. If Oleksiejczuk can keep this fight standing, then he will win as long as he doesn’t get knocked out. If Antigulov can get takedowns, then he could pull off a submission or win with ground and pound. I would say the longer this fight goes the more likely it is that Oleksiejczuk wins. It is hard to see how this fight will play out, but I have to think that Antigulov can get at least one takedown and if he can then maybe that is all it takes for him to get a finish. I am not sure if he can consistently get takedowns though and he will gas out if he is unsuccessful. I would say this is a dog or pass fight for me on the betting line, but I will side with the favorite to win because I think he can work his way back to his feet and tire out Antigulov. It could be a decision win from him, but I think he gets a knockout in the 2nd or 3rd round.
On DraftKings, I love this fight for GPPs. I think both guys have clear paths to finishes and we have a FDGTD line of -365. I think this is a fight that should be heavily targeted, and I will probably be fairly even on this one. I do think Michal probably wins this fight in the 2nd or 3rd round. The 2nd would be much better for DraftKings purposes of course. However, I think there could be a good portion of the 1st round that he doesn’t score at all while he is trying to get back to his feet. I also think there is a possibility that Antigulov pulls off the 1st round submission and if he does that at $7.4k then he probably will win somebody that 1st place prize. I will have this fight in more than half my lineups and I would think I have 30-35% of both guys. I don’t think this goes all 15-minutes, so we should get a nice win bonus for either guy. If I was just making one lineup and I had to use this fight in a GPP I will say my preferred play is Antigulov. I do think he is a GPP only play though. I don’t hate Michal for cash but if I can get away from him and still like my lineup then I’d probably do that.
Winner – Michal Oleksiejczuk via 2nd round (T)KO
Marcin Tybura $8,400 vs Shamil Abdurakhimov $7,800
Marcin Tybura
Age: 33
Height: 6’3
Weight: 246
Reach: 78”
Gym: United Gym
From: Poland
UFC Record: 4-3
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -130
Marcin Tybura is looking to get things back on track after a two-fight losing streak. He came into the UFC with a lot of hype and started off 3-1. He then lost back to back fights but bounced back last time out against Stefan Struve. If he can beat Shamil he will be in a similar position to where he was before the losing streak. Tybura is light on his feet, uses a lot of straight punches, front kicks to the body and then will throw nice round head kicks. He will throw the front oblique kick to the knee as well. He can get hit clean when he does that and squares up, as you saw in the Lewis fight. He got dropped early and then finished later from doing that. He has been KO/TKO’d twice in his career. He has 7 himself.
Tybura is a good grappler and has strong body lock takedowns and fast transitions. He will look to control opponents against the cage as well, but he doesn’t do much from there, and just takes a break. He can be reversed and just have his back stuck against the cage as well. When he takes top position, he does a great job of getting the mount and taking the back. He doesn’t do a ton of damage from those positions and if I was his coach I’d drill becoming more dangerous in those situations. If he could learn to do damage before looking to sink in subs, I think he could get way more finishes. He has good cardio and can push all 3 or 5 rounds as shown vs Werdum. Tybura has 6 submissions, but none in UFC. I feel if Tybura goes back to grappling game plan here and can get on top of Shamil, he should be able to finish him. I think he will get to a dominant position and finish with G&P or finish with a submission. On the feet, I think it will be fairly close & uneventful with Shamil landing maybe the more volume while Tybura is more dynamic.
Shamil Abdurakhimov
Age: 37
Height: 6’3
Weight: 256
Reach: 76”
Gym: Peresvet FT
From: Russia
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 25
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +110
Shamil Abdurakhimov is looking for 3 UFC wins in a row. He is coming off defeating a legend in Andrei Arlovski & will look to build on that here. He is light on his feet and has good movement for someone his size. He has a very patient, and risk averse style. He uses a lot of movement on the outside and doesn’t get in range, and then likes to close the distance with good, straight punches, and hooks. He has good accuracy and timing on his straight punches and can catch fighters closing the distance with it. He does a good job of throwing the straight-right and then coming over the top with a right hook. He has a good straight punch to the body and a great check right hook. He has a good spinning back kick and has some decent kicks, but he doesn’t throw them often. He does have good power with 8 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Abdurakhimov is a solid grappler as well. When you close the distance with a shot, he does a good job of ducking under and getting double underhooks. He has good body lock takedowns, and good double legs. He has good control on top and will be busy enough to keep it on bottom. He has good cardio and does a good job of slowing down the fight if he gets hurt. Off his back, he is not good. He has been finished twice by ground & pound in the UFC and looks very uncomfortable off his back. If Tybura can get on top, I think he has a great chance to finish the fight. Shamil is fighting again in Russia and looking to go 2-0 in the UFC at home.
This is another heavyweight fight but probably a lot less exciting than the other two on the card. Neither guy fights at a high pace and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see this one to go all 3-rounds. I don’t expect that to happen with the other two. I think Tybura is the better fighter everywhere in the matchup but Shamil’s path to victory is with his wrestling. He does like to make fights boring by getting in takedowns and holding top position. If he can get takedowns in two rounds and win those rounds that way, then he can win another decision here as well. I just think Tybura will be the much faster fighter and I expect him to have a decent edge in the striking. As long as he can stuff takedowns or get back to his feet, he should win this fight. I expect him to get the job done on the feet with a knockout, but he could get a submission or judge’s decision here as well.
This is my least favorite heavyweight fight to target on the card. I feel pretty good about the other two HW fights ending early but this one has a good chance of going the distance. The line for it going the distance is actually -160 which makes me like it even worse. I think you can full fade this fight in GPPs if you want to and hope that them being heavyweights inflates their ownership. My preferred play is Tybura though. I think he has the much higher ceiling and I think he gets the job done. I think he is playable in all formats, but I will not have a lot of exposure to this fight overall and I will probably full fade Shamil myself. I am picking Tybura to win by knockout but if he doesn’t get it then I could see him scoring 60 DK points in a decision win. That won’t do us any good so it’s pretty much KO or bust for this fight in GPPS on both sides.
Winner – Marcin Tybura via 3rd round (T)KO
Alexander Yakovlev $8,300 vs Alex Da Silva $7,900
Alexander Yakovlev
Age: 34
Height: 6’1
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: K-Dojo Warrior Tribe
From: Russia
UFC Record: 2-4
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 2 Years 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -170
Alexander Yakovlev is making his return to the octagon after nearly 3 years away from the sport. I’m not sure why he took so much time away, but he will be returning at 155 lbs. He is 1-0 in the UFC at 155, and only 1-4 at 170, so it’s probably a good decision to make the drop if he can do it. He is going to have the big height & reach advantage. Yakovlev is much more of a technical striker. He likes to use his range, land nice jabs & straight punches. He will throw a nice one-two and jab, left hook. He has a nice straight-left hand & uses it to maintain distance. He will follow the straight-left with a right uppercut or right hook. He has nice inside leg, body & head kicks. He uses a lot of movement & won’t brawl or exchange much. He does tend to sometimes extend his arms to defend punches, or circle away with his hands low. This does leave him susceptible to possibly being hit. He also can stand heavy on his lead leg when he sits down on punches. He has 9 KO/TKO’s & has been finished by strikes just once and has a solid chin.
Yakovlev is a strong grappler & I imagine he will be trying to wrestle in this fight. He is solid in the clinch with knees, and control. He has very nice timing on single & double legs. He is good at elevating opponents & moving directly into side control. He will catch kicks & take opponents down off them. He has a strong mount take & will chase the back mount. He doesn’t have the greatest top control & fighters have been able to scramble back to their feet when he takes them down. He can be taken down himself, but he is decent off his back. He was able to survive 3 rounds with Demian Maia & even took Maia down. I expect Yakovlev to try to walk Da Silva into takedowns & control on top. He likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes. He has 8 career submissions & has been submitted 4 times. Yakovlev has solid cardio & the style to win decisions. He is going to want to stay long, catch Da Silva with his jab or straight punches as he tries to close the distance. He should also try to mix it up, time takedowns & push Da Silva against the cage. If he can get Da Silva on his back, he has to worry about control & can’t allow Da Silva to top position. He has a big size advantage, and if he can grind on Da Silva he may tire him out.
Alex da Silva
Age: 23
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: N/A
Gym: Astra Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 321
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +150
Alex Da Silva is a 20-1 fighter out of Brazil. He is replacing Teemu Packalen, and only has about 2 weeks’ notice for this match. He has ping ponged between FW & LW throughout his career, and probably is going to be a bit undersized here. Da Silva is fast & light on his feet. He has a nice jab, and nice one-two. He has heavy low leg kicks & throws them early & often. He will throw a left hook, right uppercut combination. He has very nice head kicks, and front knees to the body & head. Overall, on the feet he is wild & while dangerous leaves a lot of openings. He has multiple one-shot finishes & has big power & explosiveness. He has 13 KO/TKO’s & finishes all 19 of his pro wins. He has never been finished in his career.
Da Silva is very aggressive with his grappling as well. He will throw brutal elbows in the clinch & can cut opponents open. He has good knees to the body & head. Da Silva’s weakness is in his wrestling. He allows fighters to back him up, and once fighters get in on his legs, he’s fairly easy to takedown. He is active off his back and is good at creating scrambles & taking top position. When he gets top control, he loves to take the back & get RNC’s. He does a decent job of wrestling, when he can push fighters to the cage, he will shoot double legs, but overall isn’t a great wrestler. He tends to shoot from way too far out when he starts to get hit & it leaves him susceptible to being put on his back or caught in a choke. He is very hard to hold down & is a great scrambler, but in his one loss he was grounded for 2 rounds. He has good cardio & is extremely aggressive always looking to finish. He has 7 career submissions. I feel that Da Silva should fight at 145. He is going to be much smaller than Yakovlev, but he is live. He needs to close the distance, get inside & make this more of a brawl. He should try to land low leg kicks, and catch Yakovlev circling away with combinations. If he gets taken down, he needs to try to attack with submissions & scramble to top control. I feel if he can get top control he may be able to do some damage. Yakovlev hasn’t fought in nearly 3 years & Da Silva’s aggressive style, could catch him could & finish him early.
Yakovlev will be dropping back down to 155 lbs for this fight so he will have a big size advantage. I think he will be looking to use that in his favor and work for takedowns to win the fight on the ground, or through the judges. Alex da Silva is making his UFC debut here and is only 23-year-old. However, he already has 20 professional wins and they are all via stoppage. 13 from (T)KO and 7 from submission. The only time he did go to the 3rd round he did end up losing a decision though for his lone loss. I was impressed with what I saw from this kid though. I think Yakovlev should tire as the fight goes along from working for takedowns, so I don’t really see him having a cardio advantage. And I think Da Silva is the more dangerous fighter of the two. I am going to lean with the underdog to pull off an upset in this fight and I think a finish would be the most likely route for him to do it. I think he will be the better striker in this match, so I will take him to win with a 1st or 2nd round knockout.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Da Silva. He is one of the most live underdogs IMO and I think he has a decent edge on the feet here. The issue is him being put on his back the whole time, and that makes Yakovlev a solid play as well because he should be looking to grapple here. I am not sure what I will do with my Yakovlev exposure, but I will probably have a few lineups. I don’t see me having much more than 20 lineups this week, so he probably only makes 2 max if that’s the case. I do think Da Silva is playable in all formats though and I will be overweight on him. I like him more for GPP than cash, but I’d guess I’ll have 30% or so of him in my lineups.
Winner – Alex Da Silva via 2nd round (T)KO
Keita Nakamura $8,200 vs Sultan Aliev $8,000
Keita Nakamura
Age: 34
Height: 5’11
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: K-Taro Dojo
From: Japan
UFC Record: 4-6
Fight Matrix: 109
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -105
Keita Nakamura is an OG. He has been in the UFC since 2006 and is still getting UFC wins. He took a close decision over Salim Touhari in his last match, where he largely chose to strike. I think he will try to do that again here. He throws a nice jab and straight-left hand. He has a good check left hook. He has strong body kicks as well, and that is probably his most dangerous technique on the feet. He very rarely gets wild or out of position on the feet. He likes to stay at his range and measure fighters, trying to time them coming in with a straight shot or takedown. He is hittable, but he has a good chin, and will eat shots and continue to pressure forward. He has only been finished one time by TKO in his entire 43 fight career. He isn’t much of a knockout threat with only 6 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Nakamura is an excellent grappler, and a very opportunistic submission artist. He has a very well timed double leg, that he will convert into a body lock if he cannot finish. He does a great job of staying sticky, and glued to his opponents, once he can get a hold of them and is very good at eventually finishing the takedown. He is a superb back taker, and he can take the back standing or on the ground. He does a great job of sneaking his hooks in quickly and having excellent control in that position. He has 12 rear naked chokes in his career, and they are definitely his go to submission. He seems to have a knack for come from behind submission victories and can be getting dominated for the duration of the fight and pull it out in round 3. Nakamura has 16 career submissions and has been submitted just once. I see Nakamura trying to keep this at a slow pace & control the fight with his striking. He is going to keep his jab & left hand in Sultan’s face, while looking to land hard kicks to the legs, body, and then ultimately try to go to the head. I feel he potentially could be successful with landing a head kick. He needs to avoid grappling IMO, even if he has a submission locked in on bottom I feel the judges won’t score it in his favor. He should just look to use his striking advantage.
Sultan Aliev
Age: 34
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 71”
Gym: ATT
From: Russia
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 195
Last Fought: 11 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -115
Sultan Aliev needs a win badly here. He has lost two of three fights & is getting one final chance to save his job in his home country. Aliev is a pretty low-level fighter. He returned from a nearly 3-year layoff and was badly beaten by Warrley Alves. He showed toughness but took a ton of damage & had his eye swelled completely shut. Aliev is stiff on the feet & holds his hands very low. He has a decent jab & left hook. He throws a lot of wide shots into takedown attempts. He has solid hooks & overhands over the top. He is slow & can be hit with counters. He doesn’t move his head & his hands are very low. He has power in his hands & a great chin. He can eat bombs & looks to be fine. He flashed good power pre-UFC with 10 KO/TKO’s, but 0 in his first 3 UFC fights. He has been finished by strikes twice in 3 UFC fights, but last time it was due to injury.
Aliev is extremely strong & a multiple time combat sambo world champion. He uses wide punches to get inside & if he can get his hands connected he usually is taking opponents down. He has great double legs and can rip opponents off the cage with body locks & clinch throws. He is going to be very heavy if he gets on top of opponents, and usually they don’t stand up. He likes to work for dominant positions before looking for ground & pound and has great control. When he takes the wresting ride position, mount or side control, he will land big shots & I have seen him take opponents out. He isn’t a submission guy, with 0 in his career, but he has good defense, and I imagine will be extremely hard to submit. He stays calm & works his way out. He is good at shaking opponents off the back & turning in, as well as just getting out of bad situations. If the fight is on the mat in a scramble, he is in his world. He has solid cardio & can wrestle all three rounds. Sultan Is going to want to try to counter over the top of Nakamura’s jab, while mixing in takedowns. If he can land a flush overhand off a lazy jab or un set up kick from Nakamura, he may be able to floor him. I also feel if he can get inside & get connected to Nakamura he should be the stronger guy & control that situation. He definitely needs to be weary of the submission game of Nakamura, but I feel in Russia, if he can get takedowns, and just survive submission attempts while keeping top control, even that will be enough to get the win.
This is a very close fight as the line indicates. I expect Aliev to have the edge on the feet and Nakamura to have the edge on the ground. Aliev has never been taken down in the UFC though, so I don’t think it will be easy for Nakamura to get it there. I think if this fight ends in a knockout it will likely be from Aliev. If this fight ends in submission, then it will be Nakamura. If this fight goes all 15-minutes I think it will be close, but I would favor Aliev if I knew that was going to be the case. He is going to be my pick in this fight, but it is not a confident one.
This is probably the fight I will have the least exposure to. I think you could full fade it if you want and if I was making 5 or less lineups that would be the move I made. My preferred play is Aliev because he is cheaper, and I think he can control where this fight takes place. We just need a KO from him for him to pay off an $8k price tag. Neither guy strikes at a high enough rate for this to score well in a decision, so we are relying on the finish if we are rostering this fight. I think it’s a better cash game plan than GPP and if you want exposure to either guy that is probably where I would get it. I will likely have 1-2 Aliev lineups in GPPs and I will probably full fade Keita here. I think there is a good chance the winner of this fight scores under 70 DK points and that won’t win anybody $25k.
Winner – Sultan Aliev via Split Decision
Movsar Evloev $9,100 vs Seung Woo Choi $8,000
Movsar Evloev
Age: 25
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: N/A
Gym: Fight Club Nart
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 37
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W10
Betting Odds: -325
Movsar Evloev will be the home town Russian welcoming South Korean, Seung Woo Choi. Evloev is 10-0. Evloev has fought pretty solid talent & is the former M-1 Global BW champion. He is moving up to 145 lbs for this UFC opportunity. Evloev is a grinder. He has decent striking, but not great. He will throw a jab, and one-two out there. He will throw check left hooks. He likes to grab the single collar & throw uppercuts. He will throw solid, rear leg head kicks & question mark kicks. I feel he will struggle with fighters who have solid movement & range striking. He doesn’t have a lot to close the distance & can overextend with sloppy hooks or overhands while trying to get inside. He has 3 career KO/TKO’s & shown a good chin.
Evloev is an excellent wrestler. He has nice double legs. He will shoot singles & take the back. He is extremely strong & will dig underhooks & muscle opponents to the mount. He likes to get into half guard & smashes opponents until they turtle up & he can ride them out. Most of the time when he’s taking an opponent down, they don’t get back up for the remainder of the round, especially as the fight goes on. He had a strong mount & will throw hard G&P. He has great back takes & back control. He has tremendous grappling cardio & wears on fighters with his pressure pace & riding ability. He has been in five round fights & not slowed down. He is good off his back at sweeping to top position as well, but overall, is very hard to takedown. He has 4 submissions, all rear naked chokes. He is young & improving and I’m sure he is ready to make a statement in his home country. Evloev should look to not exchange much on the feet, try to safely close the distance & get the takedown. On the feet, I think he is much stiffer & going to struggle to land & get his range. He needs to back Choi up with his jab, overhands, & high kicks to the cage, change levels and take him down. If he gets top position, he’s shown he is very good with top control & I think he will be able to hold him down. I have yet to see Choi off his back at all, and maybe if Movsar gets him down he could easily finish.
Seung Woo Choi
Age: 26
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: N/A
Gym: MOB training center
From: South Korea
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +265
Seung Woo Choi is 7-1 prospect out of South Korea. Choi is a long, rangy striker. He has very solid footwork & distance control. He has very nice leg kicks & a nasty one-two combination. His jab is very nice. He does a great job of pull countering with his straight-right hand to maintain distance. He will throw straight-right hand, left hook combinations. He likes to finish combinations with leg kicks. He will throw solid front & round kicks to the body. He has nasty front kicks to the head. He will throw spinning heel, question mark & round house kicks to the head as well. He is very technical & won’t overextend or put himself in bad positions. He has huge power & great accuracy in his straight-right hand. I have seen him get multiple one punch knockouts. He has 5 KO/TKO’s in 8 wins. In his one loss he was knocked out. In this fight, he got dropped with the first punch & finished with G&P.
Choi isn’t an offensive grappler & will be trying to use his striking to maintain distance & fight at range. He looks hard to takedown in the clinch and has nasty elbows in close range. He has very fast hand speed & can land nice combos off the break. He will grab the Thai plum & land vicious knees to the body & head. He can be controlled in the clinch, but he is very hard to takedown. I have seen him get a couple body locks in a fight where an opponent was trying to take him down in the clinch. Overall, I have seen very little of his wrestling and none of his bottom game. He is going to obviously have to deal with a heavy dose of wrestling here and needs to have his defense on point. He has nice distance control & will have a good reach & height advantage. He needs to use footwork move & walk Evloev into his jabs, and straight punches. If he can keep this fight on the feet I see him piecing Movsar up. I think he could even get a finish if Movsar can’t take him down, and it’s all going to come down to if Choi can stay off his back.
Evloev is a former M-1 champion. He seems very well-rounded and he has beat some pretty decent competition before making his UFC debut here. Choi will also be making his debut here, but he is doing it in Evloev’s home country. I have to think this is a knockout or bust fight for Choi and I think the UFC is wanting Evloev to get a win here. I think he will be the better fighter wherever this fight goes but I do expect him to look for takedowns and get the win on the mat. I think he could finish with a knockout or a submission, but I will side with him winning a 15-minute clear decision win.
This should be a fun fight. My preferred play is Evloev and I think he wins this fight with his grappling which is what we want on DraftKings. If this fight stays standing it will be much closer, but I think it will take place at a solid pace while on the feet. However, if I am rostering Evloev at $9.1k I am wanting him to grapple and/or finish. I think he can pay off that salary in a grappling decision but there are a lot of possible finishes on this card, so it is going to be tough to roster the nut lineup. I will have a decent amount of Evloev this week though and I think he is in play in all formats. I think Choi is a GPP only play but I think there are better plays on the board this week. I wouldn’t talk you out of rostering him, but I will be low on him personally and I might even full fade him.
Winner – Movsar Evloev via Unanimous Decision
Krzysztof Jotko $8,600 vs Alen Amedovski $7,600
Krzysztof Jotko
Age: 29
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 77”
Gym: ATT
From: Poland
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 22
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -190
Krzysztof Jotko is getting his final opportunity to stick around in the UFC. After starting 6-1 in the UFC, he has lost 3 in a row. He has been finished in back to back fights and taken a year off. He has fought pretty high-level competition and is definitely the toughest fighter his opponent has ever fought. Jotko is a good fighter. He is well-rounded, athletic and has good instincts for MMA. He has very loose hands and good hand speed. He is deceptively long to his opponents and hits them with left and right shovel hooks when they think they are out of range. He has good power especially with his right hand and can knock you out. He was landing some brutal uppercuts against Uriah Hall and almost had him out of there before a miraculous comeback win for Hall. Jotko has good kicks as well and is very mobile. He keeps you at the end of his range and can open up with some wild kicks like spinning heel kicks, but he has a nice roundhouse to the body and can go high to the head as well. He has good defense and does a good job with distance control. Jotko has 6 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes in back to back fights. That is a concern against a fighter with big power like Amedovski.
Jotko is a solid grappler as well, he has a great body locks and good timing on them. On top, he can land heavy ground and pound and has solid transitions to more dominant position. He swept Thales Laetes, a great black belt and was able to dominate and control him from top position. He has good takedown defense himself and his get-up game is very, very good, which he showed in the David branch fight. Branch was able to control Jotko against the fence a bit. I feel if Jotko can get on top of Amedovski, he can get to dominant positions & go for the submission. I think if he can get on top & cement position, Amedovski will lose power & gas quickly. Jotko only has one submission & has been submitted once, but IMO is the much better grappler.
Alen Amedovski
Age: 31
Height: 5’11
Weight: 185
Reach: N/A
Gym: ATT Rome
From: Italy
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 205
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: +165
Alan Amedovski is making his UFC debut out of Italy. He trains at ATT Rome, which is a bit interesting, because it’s a battle of the original ATT, vs an affiliate ATT gym. Amedovski is 8-0 with 8 KO/TKO’s including back to back in Bellator. He is extremely aggressive & swings for the fences. He just had a 12 second knockout win with a jab, right hook, left hook combination in his last fight. His left hook is nasty. He will throw very nice one-twos & will pull counter nicely with it. He has a devastating overhand right. When he lands a big shot, he is very good at following up with combinations & putting opponents out cold. When he drops opponents, he will finish the fight with devastating ground & pound, and if he gets you hurt, usually he will finish.
Amedovski doesn’t have much grappling footage available. He seems to have decent wrestling against the cage with body locks in the clinch. He is aggressive on top with ground & pound and tries to get the back. He doesn’t have great top control & he allows opponents to get-up rather easily. He will go for armbars, but they seem very sloppy, and allows fighters to move to side control. I feel if he allows Jotko on top of him he could be finished. He has no submissions, and almost all his fights have ended very quickly without much playing out. I think Amedovski has cardio problems if the fight continues and this is easily the best opponent he’s faced. Amedovski is going to have to try to go in and go for the kill. If he can get Jotko flustered by a quick start, he may be able to finish him. Jotko has been finished twice in a row & if he feels he may get finished again early, he may break. I think the longer the fight goes it favors Jotko.
All of Amedovski’s wins are via KO and 6 of the 8 have come in the first round. I expect him to come out firing with heavy shots from the opening bell. If he can land a big one, then he is very live here to get a knockout. However, I think a knockout is probably his only shot. I don’t know what his cardio will look like late in the fight, especially if he is winging power shots and missing. I think Jotko is the more technical fighter and if he can weather the early storm I think he can win this fight late or get a decision win. The longer this fight goes, the more it should favor Jotko. I think if you are looking to bet the underdog then the ITD line is currently +249 and the TKO line should be closer to +300 when it is released. I would say that would be the way to go if you think an upset happens here. Again, I think the line should be closer than it is, but I will side with the favorite to get his hand raised.
On DraftKings, I think the better play is Amedovski in GPPs. I think if he wins it is likely by KO. Any underdog who can win by KO has a shot at being on the $25k lineup. I think he is a solid play in GPPs for that boom/bust aspect. I think Jotko is playable in all formats, but cash may be the better option for him. He typically doesn’t score highly in wins, so we would need him to grapple or get a finish to be on the 1st place lineup I think. There are other favorites I like more to get a finish so that will limit my exposure to Jotko but I think he will be somewhat low owned this week. If that is the case, then I will probably look to be a bit overweight on him. I’d guess I will have close to 3-4 of each guy but I would guess Amedovski is closer to the 4 and Jotko closer to the 3. I am not sure how to judge this fight on ownership yet, but if I get the feeling either will be popular, I’ll look to go the other way with my lineups.
Winner – Krzysztof Jotko via Unanimous Decision
Antonina Shevchenko $9,300 vs Roxanne Modafferi $6,900
Antonina Shevchenko
Age: 34
Height: 5’8
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai
From: Kyrgyzstan
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 17
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -345
Antonina Shevchenko is a heavy favorite to move to 2-0 in the UFC. She looked dominant in her UFC debut & a win over a pioneer in Roxanne Modafferi would get her a top 5 opponent. Just like her sister, Shevchenko is a striker & Muay Thai World Champion. She has fast hands, a good jab and right hand. She has nice leg kicks and hard front kicks to the body. She has a good lead and counter left hook. She has heavy head kicks, and good body kicks. She will keep heavy volume on opponents and stays at her range. She is good at angling off & not allowing herself to get backed up the fence. She is good at picking at opponents at range & not allowing clinch opportunities. I have seen opponents have some success catching her kicks & getting takedowns and cage control. She needs to really set her kicks up against a veteran like Modafferi.
Shevchenko is nasty in the clinch and her grappling looks impressive. She is very strong and when she gets a hold of the Muay Thai plum, she will land heavy knees to the body and head, and also nasty elbows. She has great elbows in close range and cuts fighters’ faces up. She has good takedown defense and will sprawl, get double underhooks, reverse and get on top herself. She has nice elbows on the ground, and she has great cardio and will continue to land knees and or ground & pound until she finishes the fight. Off her back, I saw her get beat up a bit & mounted by a fighter on the regional scene in 2017. She was able to get to half guard, dig an underhook, stand up, and she didn’t seem fatigued or worried. I think her clinch striking is more impressive than her range striking and she’s actually more aggressive than Valentina. Antonina is mean, and she enjoys breaking and finishing fighters. She needs to try to land her jab, straight punches, angle & avoid grappling. If she can put a storm on Roxanne & slow her down with striking, then she may be able to beat her up in the clinch when her movements become more labored.
Roxanne Modafferi
Age: 36
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 69”
Gym: Syndicate MMA
From: Nevada
UFC Record: 1-3
Fight Matrix: 21
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +285
Roxanne Modafferi is getting a big opportunity to bounce back from her loss to Sijara Eubanks. A win over any Shevchenko is huge, and a big feather in someone’s cap. Roxanne is awkward on the feet, she isn’t very athletic and has stiff, slow movements. She has gotten better at accentuating her reach and trying to make her punches long, instead of loopy. She has a solid jab and good head and improved lateral movement. She will throw straight punches, but sometimes struggles to find range and throws at air. She has ok hand speed and can land the straight-right hand. She will throw inside leg kicks, high kicks and tries to be tricky throwing question mark kicks and spinning back fists. She tries to keep high volume and throw a lot of shots. She doesn’t have knockout power, but she has a strong chin and lives up to her nickname of the Happy Warrior. She has only been finished twice in her career.
Modafferi doesn’t have great takedown defense, but she is good off her back. She has good armbars, triangles and is active off her back. She can get hit with ground & pound elbows. She has gotten better at entries for her judo trip takedowns and clinch takedowns. She got a nice double leg takedown against Barb Honchak and has pretty solid timing. She also had a good reversal of a takedown and ended up on top. She can get bullied in the clinch and controlled like she was vs Emily Whitmire and Nikko Montaño. She was taken down by Sijara Eubanks multiple times. She is good in scrambles, and if she gets on top, she will land hard, heavy elbows and go for the finish. She probably has the best mount in the division, and when she gets there, has phenomenal control and throws hard punches and elbows. She has finished many recent fights this way. She can get an armbar or an RNC. She slows down as the fight goes on but has decent cardio. Modafferi has 6 Submissions & has been submitted once. Modafferi needs to be very aggressive, make it ugly, get inside & get it to the mat. She has to jam & try to catch kicks & when she gets on top, do damage. I feel her best path to victory is a first round finish. I feel if she can get mount in round one, she can finish the fight.
Antonina is the sister of the 125 lb UFC champion, Valentina Shevchenko. I expect her to have a big edge on the feet and she shouldn’t be in much trouble if she can keep it there. I think if we knew this fight was going to stay standing then that -350 would be very playable. However, if Modafferi can land takedowns I wouldn’t be shocked to see her lock up a submission. She is a crafty vet and she will be looking to get takedowns here. The issue is that she only lands takedowns at a 15% accuracy and if she can’t get them then she is going to get picked apart on the feet. I went into this fight thinking Shevchenko was a solid parlay piece, but I am worried Roxy can spoil the hype train here. I am going to stick with Shevchenko as my pick, but I am not as confident as I was earlier in the week.
This is my another of my least favorite fights on the card. I expect Shevchenko to piece Roxy up on the feet but if she doesn’t get a finish I don’t see her paying off a $9.3k salary. So, I think she is a better cash play than anything and I will likely fade her in GPPs. I also think Roxy is a good cash play because I like her floor in a 15-minute fight and I could see her getting the fight to the ground at least once and racking up a few extra points for us there. If I knew she would lose this fight and score 30 points, I’d lock her into cash and take the L. She is the safest punt on the card and at $6.9k she allows us to pay up for the top guys. I prefer Roxy over Shevchenko in cash, but both are playable in that format for sure. However, I wouldn’t stack it, just solo with either one and I will likely have Roxy in my cash LU when the fights kick off.
Winner – Antonina Shevchenko via Unanimous Decision
Ivan Shtyrkov $8,700 vs Devin Clark $7,500
Ivan Shtyrkov
Age: 30
Height: 6’0
Weight: 205
Reach: N/A
Gym: Tiger Muay Thai & MMA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -175
Ivan Shtyrkov is an undefeated 16-0-1 Russian prospect. He has already fought & defeated many notable names such as Thiago Silva, Fabio Maldonado, Satoshi Ishii, Bigfoot Silva, Ricco Rodriguez, and Jeff Monson. It’s going to be interesting how he looks in the octagon, because to be honest, he looks like a walking USADA violation in a lot of his regional fights. Ivan is a bit of a plodder, and not very high volume. He will throw powerful overhand rights, and left hooks. He will throw an overhand right, left hook combination. He will throw the occasional jab, and decent inside leg kicks. He will throw nice spinning back fists & elbows. Overall, I am not impressed with him at all. He gasses very badly and will hold his hands down by his waist, being extremely hittable. He will look for uppercuts & body shots in close range. He will throw the occasional spinning back kick to the body & head kicks. He has a fairly good chin, but I have seen him dropped & almost finished in the past. He was hurt very badly by Bigfoot Silva, and probably would have been finished, but they had an odd rule with a 10 count in MMA after a knock down. He has 5 KO/TKO’s & decent power.
Ivan’s grappling is average as well. He will try to back fighters towards the cage & get in the clinch, get body kicks & trips or shoot double legs. He has decent double legs and can finish well when he has you near the cage. He tends to shoot them from way too far out in space & they can be stuffed easily, and fighters can take top position. He will shoot singles or doubles off overhands. He does a decent job of getting to the back or wrestling ride position & landing shots. He can be taken down himself, and has decent get-ups, but gasses quickly. I think Clark will have the wrestling advantage most likely. He was able to get an armbar in his last match vs Thiago Silva. He has 5 career submissions. Ivan is going to want to try to catch Clark with a shot as he comes inside or go forward, explode into combinations and try to take his head off. Ivan hits hard, and Clark is hittable, with chin issues, so if he can land clean, he could rock or finish Clark.
Devin Clark
Age: 29
Height: 6’0
Weight: 205
Reach: 75”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: South Dakota
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 73
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +155
Devin Clark is fairly athletic, and powerful fighter. He is light on his feet & explosive. He has solid inside, outside leg kicks. He will throw solid one-twos and has a nice straight & overhand right lead. He will close the distance with hook or straight punch combinations. He will throw front & hook kicks to the body & head. He will throw superman punches and likes to throw back fists into an explosive combination to close the distance. He holds his lead hand low, and sometimes can close the distance hands down with his chin in the air. His striking is all basically to set up his entries & get the fight to the ground.
Devin Clark is a Junior College National Wrestling Champion, and I see him trying to get this fight to the mat. He does a good job feinting his way inside & has a strong double leg. When he gets his hands connected, he takes his opponents down easily & can take them for a ride. He has strong body lock takedowns. He has good head positioning & solid control in the clinch, but not a lot of offense from there. He will throw elbows over the top & is always looking to duck under or get trip takedowns. His top control isn’t elite, but it’s not bad. He will trap a wrist from the guard & use it to try to turk the legs & move directly into mount or take the back. He does a good job of getting to the wrestling ride position & throwing down shots. He has the cardio to wrestle for 3 consecutive rounds and will reshoot & redump opponents continuously. Clark had 14 takedowns against Mike Rodriguez & 8 against Jake Collier. He has to keep the volume high & force him to work. Ivan has a very questionable gas tank & I feel as long as Clark can safely get inside & grind on Ivan & take him down even once early, he most likely will win the fight. I think he will wear Ivan out, take away a lot of his power, and be able to get takedowns if he can avoid getting knocked out.
Every shot Shtyrkov throws looks like it is intended to knock his opponent’s head off. He looks like he could have issues with USADA too, but I’m sure we don’t have to worry about any Russian athletes doping… He has decent grappling skills as well, but I think he will look to keep this fight standing. Devin Clark is mainly a wrestler and he should be the one shooting for takedowns here. I think he is a live underdog if he can land them though. If he can get takedowns early and wear Shtyrkov out, then it should make the fight less dangerous the longer it goes on. He doesn’t have the greatest chin though and if he is stuck standing then I think he likely gets knocked out at some point. I think he can have success with his wrestling here, but I don’t see it being consistent enough for him to get the win over in Russia. I will take the favorite here and I’ll say he gets it done by knockout.
This is another solid fight to target. My preferred play is Shtyrkov and I will be much more invested in him. I think he is playable in all formats, but I love him for GPPs because I think his best path to victory is a KO and that could come in round 1. I like mixing around the top tier guys and getting 30% or so exposure to all of them hoping to hit the right combo for first. He will be in that mix and I’d guess he will be closer to 40% or more. Clark, I think is a GPP only play as well but I will have closer to 10-20% of him. He will need to use his wrestling to get a win here and if he does then he could score well as a cheap underdog. I don’t want to be burned not playing him if that is the case, so I want to be in line with the field with my Clark exposure if possible. If you are mass entering this week then I think this is a fight that should be in half or more of your lineups.
Winner – Ivan Shtyrkov via 1st round (T)KO
Sergei Pavlovich $9,200 vs Marcelo Golm $7,000
Sergey Pavlovich
Age: 26
Height: 6’3
Weight: 205
Reach: 84”
Gym: Eagles MMA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 38
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -250
Sergey Pavlovich is once again a big favorite. He had a bad performance in his last match against Alastair Overeem getting finished quickly in round one. That was his first career loss & we have to see how he will bounce back from adversity. He is getting to fight in Russia, his home country for this fight & I bet it’s a big opportunity. Pavlovich is very low volume & is really mainly a counter puncher. He will throw his jab, but that’s one of the only strikes he uses as a lead. He will sometimes lead with an overhand right as well. He likes to counter with a straight-left, right or left hook. He will also counter with a right hook. He will throw a left hook, overhand right combination. His hand speed is not bad, he is fairly quick. He has decent leg kicks. He will throw the occasional front & round kicks to the body as well. He will throw a high kick into a spinning back fist. When he has an opponent hurt, he will try to open up, and finish. Overall, he is very low volume, and usually if fights hit the scorecards it’s close. He has had multiple fights where he got the decision win, where it was basically a 50-50 fight. His counter punching makes opponents hesitant to throw and he’s had quite a few uneventful fights. He will feint & inch forward making the cage small & try to force reactions out of opponents. In the fights where he gets most of his knockouts, it’s when his opponents go first. He is solid fighting moving backwards & has dangerous counter punches. He is heavy on his lead leg & I expect Golm to try to chop him down with leg kicks. He has 9 KO/TKO’s & usually doesn’t get hit much on the feet. He was finished with G&P for the first KO loss of his career in his last fight.
Pavlovich isn’t a super active grappler, and I don’t expect him to wrestle much here He isn’t a bad wrestler and has strong double legs. He doesn’t have the greatest top control. I feel that’s why he doesn’t go for many takedowns, because it’s just a waste of energy if they are going to get back up quickly. He has good takedown defense and is strong in the clinch. He has solid knees in that position. In his last match, he was taken down & taken out with G&P in round one. He was knocked out pretty brutally. He has no submissions & has never been submitted. Pavlovich is going to need to get inside. He has an 84” reach, so he is able to land counters from farther out than opponents expect. If he can counter the kicks of Golm, get inside & force boxing exchanges I think he can knock him out. Pavlovich also is more experienced fighting at home and has a better gas tank.
Marcelo Golm
Age: 26
Height: 6’4
Weight: 255
Reach: 75.5”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 182
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +210
Marcelo Golm has lost back to back fights and needs a win badly here. He is still very young for a HW at only 26 years old, and I feel he does have the higher upside. He looked improved in his last match after training at ATT & I expect him to look even more improved this time out. Golm definitely is lighter on his feet & moves quicker than Pavlovich. I don’t think his hands are very good. He will throw a jab & one-two. He will mix in hooks & overhands after that combination. He will try to time counter uppercuts as opponents move inside. He will drop his hands after he throws punches, or punch & reach for the clinch. If he does that in this match, he could be put to sleep with counter punches. Golm should try to work behind his kicks more & just use his jab or straight punches to set them up. He should look to throw only one-shot attacks with his punches, and not expose himself with combinations. He has thudding leg kicks & really hurt the leg of Arjan Bhullar in his last match. He will throw strong front & round kicks to the body. He has heavy head kicks & overall is very fluid with his kicking technique for a HW. He likes to back fighters towards the cage & overwhelm them with combinations. He will throw long 10+ shot combinations & really go for the finish. He doesn’t move his head & gets hit with a lot of jabs & punches in exchanges. He doesn’t pace himself extremely well & gets tired in fights as they go on. He has 5 KO/TKO’s all in round one & all 6 of his wins are first round finishes.
Golm likes to use his punches to close the distance & get into the clinch. He will dig underhooks & try to push fighters to the cage. He will attack with short shots, but I think he does it mostly to take a rest & then break with a big combination. He has nice clinch knees off the break as well. He was able to get a body lock takedown on Christian Colombo, take the mount, move to back & get the RNC. That was after he battered Colombo, and I don’t think Golm will be able to do that to a fighter like Pavlovich. He can be backed up himself & as the fights continues, accept being held against the cage. He has strong takedown defense. He was never taken down by NCAA wrestler Tim Johnson & stopped the majority of former Olympian Arjan Bhullar’s takedowns. Golm looked good in his last match. He had solid movement & heavy leg kicks. He needs to use that here. He needs to try to move, potshot Pavlovich with the jab & chop the leg. If he can hurt Pavlovich’s leg substantially, he then can start to go forward & try to land more combinations or control the clinch. He needs a win here with back to back losses.
This is another fight I don’t expect to last long. These guys are big heavyweights with one-punch KO power. All Golm’s wins have come in round 1 and Pavlovich has 9 of his 12 wins coming via 1st round KO as well. I think a knockout in round 1 or 2 from either guy is the most likely outcome and it could come down to who lands that big shot first. I don’t see either guy looking for takedowns here, so I think this will be a standup fight until one guy falls. I don’t agree with the line being this spread out, so I am actually going to side with the underdog here. I am not confident in this pick at all, I just think the value would be on the underdog with it being over 2/1 and both fighters being very capable of knocking the other out. If you want better odds on Golm then I think taking his ITD line at +425 makes sense as well.
This is another top fight to target for me in GPPs. GPP only though for me on both sides. My preferred play is Golm because it will be much easier for him to end up on the optimal lineup with a win. I think this could be a 1st round KO for whoever connects first and if that’s Pavlovich then he might not make the optimal at ~101.5k points at $9.2k, but Golm most definitely would. I will be overweight to Golm here and I will probably have half or less than that of ownership on Pavlochich. I am mostly just targeting an early KO here because if this goes to a decision than Golm might not even end up on the optimal with a win.
Winner – Marcelo Golm via 1st round (T)KO
Islam Makhachev $9,400 vs Arman Tsarukyan $6,800
Islam Makhachev
Age: 27
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: AKA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 5-1
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -300
Islam Makhachev is 5-1 in the UFC, with 4 consecutive wins. He is coming off back to back first round finishes and is looking like a true contender. He is a friend & main training partner of Khabib & has a very similar style. Makhachev is a bit lighter on his feet & less stiff. He likes to walk fighters into his punches. He has a nasty one-two, and big power in his left hand. Islam has very heavy head kicks, and front kicks to the head. He will throw nice question mark kicks. He knocked out Tibau with a nasty straight-left hand. He will throw a right hook, straight-left and nice overhand left leads. He has solid defense & good footwork. He doesn’t get hit much & has largely dominated all his UFC fights. He has won his last two via first round finish, and with a win here, deserves a major step up. His one career loss, he was caught with a bomb, and knocked out. Islam isn’t a huge knockout artist with only 3 career finishes via strikes.
Makhachev is a brilliant grappler. He will back opponents to the cage with forward pressure, clinch up against the cage & has excellent control body locks & trips. He has excellent pressure passing ability. He will turn the legs & move directly into mount. He will also get to half guard, trap the far wrist & rain down shots until opponents give their backs. He has incredible top control & when he takes an opponent down they are usually not getting back up. On top, he is always looking to improve position, while landing ground & pound. When he can get to dominant positions like the mount or the back & posture, the fight is usually over & he’s laying down heavy ground & pound. He can wrestle all day & will continue to get takedowns for 3 consecutive rounds if he needs to. Islam has 7 career submissions. He has nice armbars from mount & good rear naked chokes. He has never been submitted. I think Islam should use his forward pressure to get inside, let his hands go & get the takedown. When he takes top position, he should look to move to dominant position & finish the fight. I think if he can get mount or the back he most likely will finish the fight.
Arman Tsarukyan
Age: 22
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: N/A
Gym: Khabarovsk MMA
From: Armenia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 102
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W12
Betting Odds: +250
Arman Tsarukyan is a young 22-year-old 13-1 prospect. He is coming off a head kick knockout victory and is getting a massive opportunity here. If Arman is able to come in here & upset Islam, he would jump himself right into the top 15. Arman looks to be pretty well-rounded. He is light on his feet, good at pushing forward & feinting while bouncing in & out to pressure intelligently. He will throw jabs to the body & head. He will throw a left hook, or an overhand left to a straight-right hand. He has very nice inside leg kicks, and round kicks to the body & head. He has nice spinning techniques, such as spinning back fists & spinning back kicks to the body. His boxing is not very good & if you can get by his kicks, you can exploit him in close range. He also is heavy on his lead leg. He did get a nasty head kick knockout in his last match & should be more confident than ever with his striking. Arman has been knocked out one time early in his career. He has 5 knockouts himself.
Arman is a solid grappler. He has decent double leg entries. He is a backpack, always looking to get the back mount, and look for rear naked chokes. He will get a tight waist & hang on opponents, until he can drag them to the mat. He does a good job of staying connected & when opponents stand up of returning them back down. I have seen opponents attack with pretty good kimura attempts when he’s in that position. He was able to elevate Sato & slam his way out of it, showing some big strength. He seems to stay very calm in submission attempts and will slowly work his way out of it. He will work short punches & elbows from the guard. He isn’t a super big threat to finish with strikes in top position, and the most dangerous part of his ground game is the rear naked choke. I have seen him out on his back. He doesn’t look to have a great bottom game, and when he gives up dominant positions he will let his opponents posture & land big shots. He can’t allow Islam to get on top of him because I feel like it could be over if he does. Arman has 5 career submissions & has never been submitted. He is taking this fight on short notice against an elite fighter, and this is a big task for him to take on. Arman is up against it here. He is usually a grappler, but I think Makhachev is head and shoulders better in that area. Arman will have to try to keep it at kicking range and catch Islam with shots as he tries to get inside. If he can land a big shot that stuns & puts down Makhachev that’s his path to one of the bigger upsets of the year.
Makhachev is a very solid prospect and one of Khabib Nurmagomedov’s top training partners and lifelong best friends. He is compared to Khabib a lot because of his relentless wrestling and dominant top game. This Tsarukyan kid looks pretty good though, so I am surprised to see the UFC give him such a tough test for his first fight. Tsarukyan is well-rounded but I don’t see him being able to compete with Islam’s grappling game at this point in his career. I think he will need to get a KO to win this fight and I don’t expect Islam to stand for too long and give him those opportunities. I have to pick the favorite here and I think he gets the job done by a fairly dominant unanimous decision.
On DraftKings, Makhachev is my preferred play. It is hard to pay $9.4k for him on a card where I see so many knockouts happening. I think he is a better cash game play and just lock in a safer win, but I don’t think he is a lock in GPPs at all. I will for sure have some exposure to him, but that could be 20% and that probably puts me underweight to the field. I am not sure how much I will end up having of him, but I like other people who have a better shot at finishing a bit more. I am not against rostering Tsarukyan in a small number of lineups, but I will probably have 0-1 of him with 20 lineups.
Winner – Islam Makhachev via Unanimous Decision
Alistair Overeem $8,900 vs Aleksei Oleinik $7,300
Alistair Overeem
Age: 38
Height: 6’4
Weight: 247
Reach: 80”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Netherlands
UFC Record: 9-6
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -260
Alistair Overeem is a veteran of the sport, and a true legend in the game. He has been pro since 1999, and still is in the UFC today putting it down. He had been finished in back to back fights and looked as if he may be on his last legs. He decided to go to Elevation Fight Team after his loss to Curtis Blaydes, and train with him for this camp, and it paid off. He came back with a big G&P knockout victory, and now will be looking to get another win streak going. Overeem is an amazing striker, and definitely will be the most skilled fighter Oleinik has ever faced. I expect Overeem to return to his methodical hands down style. He will be looking to counter punch and throw a lot of fakes and feints, trying to lure his opponents in and potshot them. He has a nasty straight-right hand and is still very quick and fluid with both his hands and his kicks. He has a nice counter left hook and can land it while angling off. He will have no problem playing an outside striking game with Aleksei. He has very nice leg kicks and will throw the occasional hard body kick. Overeem will also get creative and throw front kicks to the face or jumping kicks like he landed on Arlovski. Alistair has struggled with people with longer or similar reach to him because I think he feels uncomfortable they can hit him at the same distance he can hit them. He has UFC losses to Antonio Silva, Travis Browne, Ben Rothwell, Stipe Miocic, Francis Ngannou, and Curtis Blaydes. All those guys have as long as reach or longer reach than Alistair. Oleinik has an 80” reach, so it is a worry he lands a haymaker over the top & puts Overeem on wobbly legs or finishes him, but the speed difference is overwhelming. Overeem is a knockout artist, but also has well documented chin problems. He has 21 KO/TKO’s but been finished himself 13 times himself with strikes. Overeem is aware his chin is gone, and he tends to be very careful in the octagon nowadays and he needs to do that here.
Overeem is an underrated grappler, and he has gotten more grappling centric later on in his career. When fighters close the distance on him, he no longer brawls, he will clinch up, try to get double underhooks where he is nasty. He has devastating knees to the body and head and has finished multiple fighters with clinch knees. His takedown defense is very good and on top he is good. He showed good takedowns against the cage in his last match, as well as entries into the clinch. He has strong ground & pound and can control and not let fighters up. He has a very good guillotine. He isn’t great off his back, and while he is hard to submit he has been finished by Stipe Miocic and Curtis Blaydes with G&P. Overeem slows a bit in round 3, but overall, he has good cardio for a HW. Overeem should look to stick & move. He is going to be much faster & more dynamic and technical then Aleksei. If he can walk the very hittable Aleksei into his shots, he has a high likelihood of winning the fight. He has trained with Aleksei before, so he should know the dangers on the ground with him, and a little bit of how he moves on the feet.
Alexey Oleinik
Age: 41
Height: 6’1
Weight: 235
Reach: 80”
Gym: RusFighters MMA
From: Russia
UFC Record: 6-2
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +220
Aleksei Oleinik is getting another opportunity to defeat a legend in his home country. He has the honor of being the headliner in the first two ever Russian UFC events. If you can defeat Mark Hunt, and Alistair Overeem in back to back fights, I don’t care what year it is you’re doing something right. He is stepping in on short notice for Alexander Volkov, but I expect him to be just fine due to his experience & the fact he’s been asking to fight for a while. He is a bit of a plodder on the feet, who slowly walks opponents down with his hands a bit low, so he can come over the top with long casting hooks with both arms. He will walk through his opponent’s shots to land his own overhand right hook or left hand. He has big power in his overhand right, as he dropped Travis Browne with it and KO’d Jared Rosholt. He will work into the clinch and then land nice punches to the body while looking for body lock takedowns. He is very long so he can throw his casting hooks from a distance and get a hold of fighters pretty quickly. He has a nice uppercut and will throw a solid leg kick as well. He throws everything with full power.
He is one of the best heavyweight Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in MMA history, he has 45 submission victories and is very unorthodox with his attacks having landed 10 Ezekiel chokes. He has gotten an Ezekiel choke from being fully mounted against Viktor Pesta in the UFC. You will see him get that grip and even pull you on top of him with it from the standing clinch position. He is very comfortable both off his back and on top. He has a good guard and will trap a wrist and attack with triangles and armbars. He does a good job of getting back up out of side control. He has nice sweeps and was able to sweep Travis Browne, get a single leg and ultimately take the back and choke him out. He has an amazing squeeze and gets people to tap very quickly. He has finished his last 14 wins. He ducks his head when he strikes sometimes and can get timed with knees and uppercuts. He is also one of the slowest heavyweights in the division, so when he’s in space for long periods of time, he gets lit up. He needs to close the distance and make it an ugly brawl on the feet and ultimately get it to the ground and finish the job. He leans back a lot on the feet as well when he’s striking and since he’s long he gets away with it but against someone with good kicks that could be a huge problem. He has a good chin and will bang with you in the clinch and in the pocket. He eats huge shots and just continues to walk through them. Even if you drop him he does a good job of recovering quickly. He has a one round gas tank, but he is a vet and has great heart, so he can push through and make things happen even if he’s exhausted. The way he fights it makes his opponents tired as well. If he can get it on the ground, he has a chance to defeat any man alive.
This is purely a striker vs grappler match. Overeem will be looking to keep this fight on the feet and not let Oleinik get near him. Oleinik will be looking for takedowns or even a standing submission if needed, and he is really good at locking up fast submissions if he can get ahold of people. I do think Overeem can survive takedowns and get back to his feet, but on the feet, there is no way for Oleinik to win other than a punchers chance KO. I have to side with Overeem here to get the win but if he lets Oleinik get ahold of him it will be a sweat if you are betting on the favorite. Oleinik did take this fight on short notice and he already doesn’t have the greatest cardio, so I would be shocked to see this fight go all 5-rounds. I think a KO from Overeem in round 1 or 2 is the most likely outcome here and that will be my pick.
I think this is an all-in fight. And more so on the Reem side. I feel pretty good about this fight ending in the first two rounds and I think it will likely be from a Reem KO. He is my favorite DK play on the board this week and I expect him to have his way with Oleinik on the feet. If he is taken down that will be a sweat and he could get subbed, but that is why it’s an all-in fight. If he is subbed, then there is a good chance Oleinik ends up on the $25k lineup and he somehow keeps shocking everyone and pulling it off. I don’t think that continues for him here, but if I have a lineup without Reem, then Oleinik will be in it for sure.
Winner – Alistair Overeem via 1st round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
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