Rosey, Rory, Rickie, and Brooks head to Bay Hill to try and win Arnie’s tourney!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I am a PGA and NFL Coach here at DFS Army! Welcome to the 2019 PGA Season! We here at DFS Army have got you covered this year with my weekly preview out on Sunday Nights, Chalk Donkey article breaking down the ownership projections, where to pivot, and GPP strategy out Tuesday Nights, and our Research Station that is full of more information than you could ever need!
Killa Keith Mitchell made a gutsy putt on 18 to hold off the likes of Rickie Fowler, Lucas Glover, Ryan Palmer, and Brooks Koepka to get his first win of his PGA Tour career at the Honda Classic and it just so happened that we mentioned him as a deep punt in this very article last week. It was impressive performance and I was pleased to see him hang on on Sunday while others like Wyndham Clark faltered.
From a betting standpoint, we had no hits last week since I wasn’t really interested in any of the T5, T10, or T20 odds for players in a tournament that typically produces quite a bit of carnage. Lukas Bjeregaard made a nice little run over the week but never quite sniffed the top of the leaderboard to help us with a 200-1 bet. Sergio Garcia was also around all week but never in that prime position to win. That being said we hit quite a few round matchups for our VIPs making it a profitable week! MyBookie started offering 3 balls which are some of my favorite bets as we often get plus money on guys in a better than 50% chance to beat their two competitors.
Speaking of carnage, boy did I have some in DFS. If tournaments would have ended on Friday night, I would have been up about 28K for the week. As it so happens, they had to play rounds 3 and 4 and I went from an incredibly profitable week to one where I barely scraped by. All thanks to an EPIC collapses on Saturday by Sungjae Im. Sungjae went from leading the tournament to almost not making the secondary MDF cut on Saturday shooting 7 over and staying alive by one stroke. With him went ANY chance I had of binking a GPP. While disappointing, such is the GPP life and I’ve been on the other end of that variance many times.
Course Breakdown:
The Arnold Palmer Invitational takes place at Bay Hill Club and Lodge in Bay Hill, Florida just south of Orlando. Arnold Plamer owned the course and club from 1976 until his death in 2016 (and it’s now owned by his son-in-law, Roy Saunders, dad of Sam Saunders). It has hosted the Arnold Palmer Invitational every year since 1979.
We get back to a normal par 72 here at Bay Hill, but it is a LONG par 72 at 7,419 yards. As a whole last year, the course played at almost exactly par, with the back nine playing a little easier due to the Par 5 16th being the easiest hole on the course. The 16th gave up 24 eagles last year, including two to Bryson DeChambeau who played the hole in -5 for the year and finished 2nd place. A couple of players birdied it every single day, including Justin Rose and Kevin Chappell who both finished in the top 10.
NOTE: TIGER WOODS HAS WD’d from the tournament!
While the par 5’s are going to be key here to scoring well, all four par 3’s are OVER 200 yards! All four are in the ten hardest holes on the course including hole number two which played as the most difficult hole on the course last year. Being able to play these long par 3’s at par or better will ble essential for anyone looking to compete this week.
Check out our hole by hole break down below:
There are a couple of big takeaways from the hole by hole breakdown of Bay Hill above.
- There is a lot of water. 8 water hazards are in play on the course, and the most difficult one being on the par 4 18th, where you need to carry the water into the green. A difficult shot under any circumstance. The 18th carries a 6% double bogey average making it one of the highest on tour.
- While being able to hit it a long ways here is important, you also need to be careful of those water hazards. With the rain that the course has gotten this week we will likely see distance be an even bigger factor as players will not get the role they are used to on a course that typically plays pretty firm.
- The first three holes play a combined half stroke over par. So if you’re golfer starts on the front and has a bit of a struggle on the first couple holes, not to worry as it gets easier.
- When you should worry is if your golfer is playing the par 5’s at even or over par. The par 5’s play on average 1.5 strokes under par. Gotta score or you’re likely slamming your trunk and heading home on Friday.
The weather looks gorgeous for this weekend currently with no wind or rain forecast at all. It should be a beautiful week with prime scoring conditions. Though there may be a bit of a disadvantage to teeing off on Thursday AM with cold temperatures forecast. Once tee times come out assessing whether there is a real advantage or not could be a worthwhile avenue to pursue.
The one interesting thing though is that this may actually be a bit of a wet course with rain in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. A wet course would put even more of a premium on gaining strokes off the tee. Players who are strong drivers of the ball are typically who we want to target at this event and if we get some rain, it makes a long course even longer. Excellent driving can cover up a variety of other issues in players games here, including struggles on these bermudagrass greens.
Speaking of those bermuda greens, they are going to be running fast. On average they are around 12.5 on the stimpmeter. Tour average is 11.9. While most would think fast greens benefit the better putter, it’s actually the opposite. Faster greens will hold their line better and take a lot of the guesswork out. These are similar to what the players will see next week at the Players Championship. If we look back to last year, Rory McIlroy led the field in SG: Putting and won the tournament, but players like Talor Gooch who was in contention until Sunday, was one of the worst putters on the week and still finished 26th. There’s other ways to get it done here, like with your Irons which Talor did last year. In fact 3 of the top ten and 6 of the top 20 all lost strokes putting last year here.
Overall, this is a course that can be had, but you better bring your A game off the tee. A long course, with particularly long par 3’s, means there is a premium placed on long iron play. Approach shots over 200 yards will be quite common and those who can put themselves into position to score will be in great shape.
Are you using the Domination Station to build lineups? If you are building more than 20 lineups and aren’t using it quit wasting your time! Check out the tutorial to learn how!
–>Domination Station PGA Tutorial <–
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First, let’s break down what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-AM.
Before we get into the stats this week, I wanted to provide you guys with a link to some info about Strokes Gained Data. Strokes Gained is a confusing topic and DFS Army member (And Milly Maker winner) @redkacheek has put out a great article explaining how they work better than I ever could over at his site Fantasy Golf Bag. I normally don’t link other sites but this is just too good not to share. Give it a look here! How Do Strokes Gained Stats Work?
Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week? This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab is basically a formula that takes our projection for points this week x 1000/their salary. So essentially its points per 1k.
Back to players who are some of the best in the world littering this section. The number two player in the Official World Golf Rankings comes in as the best value this week and is a player I’m going to be heavily invested in and that is Justin Rose.
Michael Thompson shows up again, but I don’t know that I can get behind a guy that is just putting the lights out and not doing much else. He’s gaining almost a stroke with his putter over his last 20 rounds while losing .3 strokes approach. It won’t matter if his putter is hot if he can’t hit the green to begin with. I just think his string of great play might end here and he’s getting overvalued.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello is a guy I’m usually on and while he’s had a string of really solid finishes, I’m not sure he has the game to compete here. All of his SG stats over the last ten rounds have been fairly mediocre. While some are touting him as a cash option, I think he’s definitely just a GPP play or fade material.
Lucas Glover on the other end is a guy that is really trending in the right direction and knocking on the door of a win. He’s been just unreal over the last 7-8 months and has performed well here over the years.
Tommy Fleeetwood is always an elite play but in his price range, I’m going to be well overweight on Francesco Molinari who is really popping for me here.
200+ yard efficiency from the Fairway:
Players will have more 200+ yard shots from the Fairway at this course than they will at any other course they tee it up at this year, so being efficient from the fairway is ideal. Players will also have more fairway shots at this course than any other due to them being fairly easy to hit. 200+ Fairway Efficiency looks at how many strokes on average it takes a player from 200-250 yards sitting int he fairway to get the ball in the hole. It also includes tee shots on par 3’s, and as we know there are 4 par 3’s all over 200 yards so this is a KEY stat for me this week.
Above is the top 5 performers in this category this week. All that you would consider elite ball strikers. Justin Rose is far and away the best though, and as such is one of my favorite plays of the week. He just continues to show up in every stat category we look at.
Talor Gooch provides a ton of value at his price point and its no surprise that he contended here last year if this is a part of his skillset that is a strength.
Talor Gooch has withdrawn from the event do not play him!
Ian Poulter is also one of my favorite plays, despite not having a ton of ‘success’ here over the years he consistently makes cuts here and is playing some of the best golf of his career.
So who is the worst at this?
These four golfers have four made cuts between them with Kevin Streelman‘s 21st in 2013 being the best result. The other thing they have in common is that none of them are very long with the exception of Beau Hossler.
All players that I’m going to be avoiding this week.
Projected DK Score:
Projected DK Score (formerly Projected Course Score)is one of our best stats. This takes the current course into account. The FP/H averages by each hole type on the course are added up to create a raw per round FP scoring projection. It’s a good way to find out who is a course fit here and statistically should have success.
A lot of the usual suspects up top, but surprisingly no Justin Rose. For whatever reason, he doesn’t really rank out here despite crushing the course over the years.
While not a well-known commodity on the PGA Tour, I do like Thorbjorn Olesen here despite not having a ton of statistical data on him playing the Euro Tour. He does have a top ten finish here way back in 2013.
This also feels like a get right spot for Cameron Champ after a few weeks of mediocre results, including two missed cuts in his last four events. A return to the east coast and bermuda which is his preferred putting surface should do him a world of good and makes him an intriguing GPP candidate.
Fantasy Points Gained: Short Par 5’s.
We mentioned earlier about how important it is to make hay on the par 5’s as they are some of the easiest holes on the course. They all fit in our short Par 5 category on the RS so let’s see who ranks out well.
Man, I’m going to have to start playing more Tommy Fleetwood this week. He just rates out everywhere!
Other interesting names here are guys like Sam Saunders whose dad owns the course and has always played pretty well here and is on a string of OK form coming in. Sam Ryder is another name that pops. He’s your prototypical ball striker, scores a ton of fantasy points, and typically just doesn’t putt well enough to contend. I like him as a bit of a flyer.
Other key stats I’m focusing on in the Research Station this week: Par 3 scoring. SG: Approach L25, Birdie or Better Gained, SG: OTT L25, Greens in Regulation %
One thing, that puts us at a huge advantage is the Domination Station. If you aren’t using it to build lineups you’re crazy! Check out how it works here! Domination Station PGA Tutorial
Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s (Above 9K, 7.5k-9K, and Below 7.5K) Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
It’s important to remember that just because someone is going to be highly owned, doesn’t mean that they are a bad play, but if we can gain an advantage on the field by fading a player owned by 25% or more, typically that’s the right move. There are typically 156 golfers in an event (though only 134 this week, making it more important to get 6/6) and only 70 and ties make the cut. Essentially you have to look at the ownership of a player and decide if the odds of him missing the cut are equal to or greater than the ownership. If that’s the case then a fade is typically the right play.
In a no-cut event, it takes on a little bit of a different spin. A chalky player at the top of the salary scale you have to ask yourself a few questions. Say he’s going to be 25% owned. “Is he going to win?” and “are the odds of him winning better than 1 in 4, equal to, or less?” If it’s less then I think a fade is in order. The same conversation can be had with chalk at the lower salary range. Will he be in the top half of the field? Will he be in the top 20? Etc.
And now, here my friends, are this weeks’ Chalk Donkeys:
Above 9K Chalk
Bryson DeChambeau: DK $9,700/FD $11,200
Projected GPP ownership: 20%-24%
While Bryson has crushed overseas this year, he has struggled a bit the last two times out in the US and despite a 2nd place finish here last year we get Bryson at a bit of a discount and as such everyone and their mother is going to play him this week.
If we look at Bryson’s Strokes Gained statistics over the last few months, we can see that he’s been pretty good off the tee and with his approach, but has struggled with the putter and around the green. Looks pretty good right? So is there any reason to fade a chalky Bryson this week?
The actual answer is no. Statistically, there’s no real reason to fade him here. He’s been a little iffy the last couple tournaments with his approach game and he’s coming off a tough performance in Mexico, but a return to a course he’s had success at and fits his game well should be all he needs to contend again…and hes CHEAP.
The bigger narrative this week is him playing with Brooks Koepka. We know Bryson has a ‘mental coach’ who works on the mental side of the game but how’s he going to handle playing with a former teammate who has publicly called his slow play ’embarrassing’ and ‘bad for the game’. How’s the Professor going to handle that? Or when Brooks purposefully plays slow to get them put on the clock? I’m super curious about how this plays out. It’s likely going to be nothing. I don’t expect to see Phil playing referee between the two. But hey if you are looking for a narrative to fade a chalky Bryson, this seems like a decent one.
I’ll likely be underweight here. 10ish% seems about right. I don’t have a ton of confidence in him to handle a difficult situation, similar to two weeks ago in Mexico.
Above 9K Pivot:
Rickie Fowler: DK $10,400/FD $11,500
Projected GPP Ownership: 10%-14%
While this entire range is going to be generally chalky, I’m kind of blown away that Rickie, coming off a 2nd place finish and now at a course he’s had 3 top 15 finishes at in his last 5 trips around is going to be fairly low owned considering those around him. I love Brooks here think this is a great fit for him, but should he really be that much higher owned than Rickie (6%-8%) I think not.
Rickie really fits the bill here for a golfer that I think can contend. All you have to do is scroll up a bit and see that he ranks out as 4th in projected DK scoring this week and is 7th in par 5 scoring. He’s also 24th in long par 3 scoring which we know can be big around here.
We also have the narrative that Rickie Fowler is the next Arnold Palmer. That’s something I think he prides himself in. He’s wearing Arnie Umbrellas on his shoes this week and had a very close relationship with Mr. Palmer. I hate that I’ve talked about narratives twice in a row here but there really is something to this one. Next, to a major I think this is the tournament Fowler wants to win most.
While you pay a bit more for him here than say a Bryson Dechambeau I actually think he’s a better course fit and am just blown away at low he is projected to be owned. I want to be well over the field here and will have 30%-40% Rickie this week.
Other highly owned players (over 15%): Justin Rose (Super chalk, don’t think twice, play him), Rory McIlroy (less chalky, play the heck out of him too), Jason Day, Brooks Koepka
7.5K – 9K Chalk
Rafael Cabrera-Bello: DK $7500/FD $9900
Projected GPP Ownership: 22%-25%
While I typically LOVE RCB, I personally just can’t get on him at this ownership level this week.
He’s a MASSIVE value on DK at this price. He’s odds to win are much better than anyone around him. And if you want to fire him up in cash I think I can get behind it. I personally won’t, for reason, I’m going to state in a bit, but I see the allure in playing him.
Really for me, the big thing is that while he has had some solid finishes over the last few months, its mostly just putting that is holding him in here. Check out his last 20 rounds, or 5 tournaments.
Continually worse off the tee as the rounds have gone on.
While there are some signs of life with his irons, he’s also trending downwards due to some pretty poor performances.
Never been really good around the green, but combining poor approach game with poor arg game is never a sign for success.
Putting cures all woes.
RCB’s finishes in his last five tournaments are 19, 25, 22, 14, and 3rd going back to last fall. And as you can see really the only thing holding him in there for these finishes is a solid putter and the occasional fire round with his irons. At some point, the putter is going to cool off and he for sure isn’t going to replicate his putting performance at the WGC-Mexico on Poa Annua. When that putter cools off, he’s going to be staring an MC in the face if the rest of his game doesn’t improve.
At the elevated ownership, I want very little of RCB in GPP. If I can eliminate 20% to 25% of the field with an RCB trunk slam I’m all for that. He’s trending in the wrong direction currently but everyone is going to play him. Maybe the putter regression doesn’t come this week, but it IS coming and when it does he’s going to take a large chunk of the GPP field with him.
7.5K – 9K Pivot:
Adam Hadwin: DK $7700/FD $9700
Projected GPP Ownership: 6%-9%
Hadwin is my favorite essentially direct pivot off of Rafa Cabrera Bello on both sites this week. While most will remember him blowing up a few weeks ago on the weekend to finish dead last of those who missed the cut, I’m going to choose to remember the incredible stretch of form he had coming into that event. He returns to a course he has a 6th place finish at on his last time here.
Hadwin is a ball striker who finds fairways and greens at a pretty high clip. While not the worlds greatest fantasy scorer, he doesn’t really hurt you anywhere as evidenced by his 75% made cut percentage. He rates out really well in pretty much every category but the Par 3’s which while they will be essentially as long as he avoids the big numbers on them he will be fine.
The strength of Adam’s game, like I said is his ability to go from tee to green efficiently. In 2017 when he finished 6th he was number 2 in strokes gained tee to green and was actually number one in strokes gained off the tee. I expect him to contend for that category again this week as he tees it up after a long break. He also gets the return of his longtime caddy this week after he was off the last two tournaments for the birth of his child.
Oh yeah, one more thing. Hadwin’s wife is a great twitter follow https://twitter.com/jessicahadwin and they met on Tinder which is awesome.
Other highly owned players (over 12%): Ian Poulter, Keegan Bradley, Jason Kokrak, Zach Johnson, Lucas Glover, Si Woo Kim
Check out my Preview Article for my full betting card!
–> UpNorth’s PGA Preview – WGC Mexico <–
Below 7.5K
As I start to see ownership trends come into play this week, what I’m seeing is that I really like a balanced build and I’m actually kind of surprised that this range of golfers doesn’t have more chalk, though Talor Gooch withdrawing took care of the chalk down here.
The Butcher of Bay Hill Matt Every should come in around 8% in GPP but after that, it’s quite spread out in ownership with no one really looking like ‘chalk’.
Like last week, I’m going to highlight a couple of players down here that will go way underowned that I have some interest in.
Sam Ryder: DK $6700/FD $8500
Love me some Sam Ryder this week. Guys a great ball-striker and has just consistently been making cuts. Doesn’t do a ton when he does but at this price, you don’t need to.
J.T. Poston: DK $7100/FD $8600
Poston has been playing some fantastic golf as of late and was recently priced way up in the 8K range on DK. Approach numbers recently aren’t much better than his long term so it would suggest that he is riding some hot irons or figured something out with his iron play recently.
Sungjae Im: DK $7000/FD $9000
I’m a glutton for punishment. After killing me last weekend with his awful 3rd and 4th round I’m going right back to the well here. He’s just an excellent player that I believe in. So I’m getting him at a huge discount in not only price and ownership. I said this stretch of golf was where he was going to excel and one poor weekend won’t dissuade me.
Other low owned cheap players I’m interested in: Hao Tong Li, Nate Lashley, Matt Wallace, Vaughn Taylor, Ryan Armour.
GPP Core:
Want to know who is my GPP Core? How bout Taco or Brody’s? Check it out here on our brand new Coaches Notes page.
Final Thoughts:
Great week to get back involved fully after a no-cut event. Unlike last week, I think everyone is going to go with a stars and scrubs build so making some balanced builds this week is likely to be much less owned.
As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in my coaching channel and make sure to join in and ask any questions. This is going to be a great week and I can’t wait to see some of those green screens and winning lineups!
Join us in our coaching channels this week and let’s win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some huge GPP’s!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!
