Good morning/afternoon to you beautiful people out there in DFS land! You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army. I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2019 Tournament Season! Remember, if I mention a player as a cash game play they most likely are OK for GPP play. Let’s take a look at what games are on the slate for DraftKings. The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.
Minnesota (66) vs Louisville (71)
Yale (76) vs LSU (85)
New Mexico St (69) vs Auburn (75)
Vermont (62) vs Florida St (72)
Bradley (57) vs Michigan St (78)
Belmont (72) vs Maryland (76)
Northeastern (68) vs Kansas (76)
Murray St (72) vs Marquette (76)
Florida (66) vs Nevada (67)
Abilene Christian (59) vs Kentucky (75)
St Marys (65) vs Villanova (66)
Fairleigh Dickinson (65) vs Gonzaga (90)
Montana (57) vs Michigan (74)
Seton Hall (69) vs Wofford (74)
Old Dominion (59) vs Purdue (72)
Baylor (67) vs Syracuse (68)
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MINNESOTA vs LOUISVILLE
Louisville did struggle with the C.Johnson/Maye combination of UNC so that bodes well for the Coffey/Murphy combination in this game. Oturu is a GPP option against a team that can be beaten around the lane and on the boards. He also does a pretty decent job of drawing fouls, which is a weakness of Louisville’s. Kalscheur is a GPP dart play as he is capable of getting hot from 3. Louisville can be susceptible to corner 3’s and I can see Kalscheur getting some open looks. Stockman or Omersa could be in play as a deep GPP punt play. Stockman missed last game with a concussion so we need to monitor his status.
Nwora is somebody I believe will go overlooked and that could be a mistake in this spot. He has been handling the ball a bit more and that opens him up to more. Sutton seems to be turning it back on and I happen to like that. As many of you know, I had been high on Sutton nearly all season long. I like Williams as a sneaky GPP option against a soft Minnesota interior. Louisville has 2 guys that I would classify as deep GPP darts based off the recent minute’s increase. Those two guys are Perry and King.
Preferred Plays: Murphy, Sutton, Williams
YALE vs LSU
This game is going to be extremely popular due to the high totals and high pace attached to it. Yale is led by a stud in Miye Oni. As much as I like the kid’s game, I may lean towards an underweight approach to the field. He is going to be popular and while he offers the upside, I think his price hurts his ceiling. Bruner is another guy I think can be used for GPPs but I worry about his true upside going against the big bodies of Reid and Bigby-Williams. The two guys that I really like are Copeland and Reynolds. Swain is on my list of value dart plays on the slate based purely on his 3-point shooting ability.
The price points for LSU are a bit frustrating. Waters was able to see a price drop on DK but I still feel like he isn’t 100% at this point. He is certainly in play with this total but not on my “must get shares of” list. Reid is one of my favorite F options on the slate and will definitely find his way into a fair number of lineups. Mays and Smart are guys that make sense, especially in mini-stacks of this game. Bigby-Williams sees a decent price jump which takes some of his safety away but I do think he is prime for 22-28 fantasy points in this game.
Preferred Plays: Copeland, Reynolds, Reid
NEW MEXICO ST vs AUBURN
NM State should be able to score on Auburn in this game and they definitely should have an advantage on the glass. Both teams led their conferences in 3-point attempts so we could see a lot of shots from deep. The big negative for NM State is the fact that they run such a deep rotation. Chuha strikes me as the safest play but he is also the most expensive and that cuts into his ceiling. Harris and Brown are interesting GPP plays because of their ability to shoot the 3. Aurrecoechea has extremely impressive per minute numbers on the season and might be their best offensive player but he rarely plays more than 20 minutes. Queen is somebody that I am going to take a lot of chances with as I hope he stays hot. Henry is the only other guy that I am considering.
Auburn is definitely going to be popular and while I agree they should be, I worry about being too invested in them. Harper has upside but as we saw in the SEC championship, he definitely has a floor. Brown‘s price is a little too high for me even though I will end up with a few shares but he relies so heavily on making his outside shots. Okeke is my guy in this one and, as long as he plays the 4, he draws the best match-up to attack. Doughty, Dunbar, and Spencer are GPP darts that I am not against using at all. Wiley is somebody that intrigues me as he looked very solid against Tennessee. He is a monster when it comes to fantasy points per minute and if he sees 12-15 could definitely get us 6x.
Preferred Plays: Queen, Okeke, Wiley (sneaky GPP dart)
VERMONT vs FLORIDA ST
Initially, I thought Vermont was in an excellent spot to pull off an upset but the more I have researched, the more I find it to be a tough task. Vermont’s tallest player in the rotation is 6’8 and he doesn’t see a ton of time. They could really struggle with the size of FSU in this one. Thankfully for DFS purposes, we could care less if they win or lose. I really like Lamb but have to leave him in the GPP dart category at his price because the match-up is going to be difficult. Smith offers us big time shooting upside and I will definitely have a few shares. The Duncan trio doesn’t excite me but Shungu definitely does at his price. He may not have monster upside but his minutes have been solid and he could knock down a few threes for us.
The height of FSU could pose big-time problems in this match-up so we HAVE to have exposure to Kabengele and Koumadje. I am tempted to run them together in cash and a couple of my GPP lineups because they should be able to get us 50+ combined in this spot. I don’t mind using Mann or Forrest now that their prices have come down a bit. Vassell is one of my favorite GPP darts. He has some volatility but he produces a ton when he sees double-digit minutes.
Preferred Plays: Smith, Shungu, Kabengele, Koumadje
BRADLEY vs MICHIGAN ST
Bradley faces a tall task in this one and I think the only way they keep it somewhat close is by knocking down 3’s. The match-up is too tough for Childs so I will be looking elsewhere. I want exposures to shooters like Brown and Kennell in this spot. I won’t have much for exposure but they do offer us the upside we need. Bradley has two intriguing GPP punt plays that could pay off as Lundy and J.Henry are under $4k and each offers 20+ fantasy point upside. I would say that Lundy’s minutes are safer but Henry offers us a much higher usage rate.
The entire projected starting lineup for the Spartans are in play in this one. Winston should be safe for 30+ but we need more than that for GPP purposes. McQuaid, as seen in the BIG10 title game, can get hot at any moment so we have to consider him for GPPs. Henry should be somewhat popular as he is still too cheap and should see a ton of minutes with Ahrens hurt. Goins and Tillman should have some advantages in the paint with Goins being my preferred option for both cash and GPPs.
Preferred Plays: Brown, J.Henry, McQuaid, Goins
BELMONT vs MARYLAND
Belmont is a prime upset pick and should give Maryland all they can handle. Belmont was able to get by Temple by double-digits with Windler scoring just 5 game points. I really like Windler to bounce back in this one but the issue is his price tag is up there so I can’t recommend him as much more than a nice GPP option. I am going to be on McClain again as he came through (even though he had to have a very solid final 10 minutes to do so) on Tuesday. Murphy is an interesting GPP option thanks to his peripherals and Benkert is in play again based purely on price. He doesn’t do a ton on the floor but we aren’t asking him to go nuts.
Maryland is going to be able to knock down some 3-point shots in this game so we want to target some of the shooters. As much as I love Fernando, I just do not think this is the spot to pay his price tag. While I wish he was just a few hundred cheaper, Cowan Jr fits this game pretty well and I think he makes a solid cash option and a decent GPP play. Morsell has been playing pretty solidly so he is certainly in play in all formats right now. Ayala is the shooter that intrigues me the most from Maryland. He has a pretty low floor but he is a very good 3-point shooter.
Preferred Plays: McClain, Cowan Jr
NORTHEASTERN vs KANSAS
The way to beat Kansas is by knocking down your 3-point shots and picking up steals. Coincidentally, Northeastern does both at a very high level. They are full of 3-point sharpshooters. Pusica is my preferred option as he has the most upside and should be safe for 28+ in this spot. Brace and Roland are solid GPP plays with my preference being Roland even though his floor is lower. Occeus is somebody that I have a lot of interest in and might even consider him for cash at his price point. Green and Murphy are GPP options on the interior with me being worried about foul issues.
Northeastern does a great job of pushing teams off of the 3-point line and forcing them to attack the basket. The problem is that should play into Dotson, Lawson, and McCormack‘s hands. I think all 3 have tremendous upside in a game that should stay competitive until the very end. I would consider Garrett as a GPP play as he could continue to see an increase in minutes if Kansas goes back to their smaller lineup. Grimes is going to take a bunch of shots so he will always have GPP intrigue but he isn’t somebody I am excited about rostering.
Preferred Plays: Pusica, Occeus, Dotson, Lawson
MURRAY ST vs MARQUETTE
Murray St is definitely all about Ja Morant. He is an elite NBA prospect but wow that price tag! I will have a share or two for GPP purposes but that price point is extremely prohibitive. I think that Brown and Buchanan are too expensive on DK but I do have a lot of interest in Cowart and KJ Williams for GPPs. Cowart draws a tough match-up on one end but his foul issues could be avoided as Marquette doesn’t run any offense through John.
I really have a feeling that Howard is going to come out motivated with everybody talking about Morant and his ability. Howard makes a really strong GPP play while Sam Hauser should be a solid play in all formats. Joey Hauser and Theo John are GPP plays that offer upside but come with a decent amount of risk. I really worry about foul trouble for John so if we think he gets into FT then we have to consider Morrow.
Preferred Plays: Cowart, S.Hauser
FLORIDA vs NEVADA
Florida gets a bump in pace but I just don’t see a ton to like for them. Hudson and Johnson are the two guys that I want to use but I have reservations about both. Hudson can get ice cold from the field and Johnson has to deal with Caroline, who is an absolute beast on the floor. Nembhard can be used for GPPs but I just don’t see myself going that route.
For Nevada, we have to consider everybody but there are no locks. My preferred plays are Caleb Martin and Thurman. If Caroline was 100% I would definitely have interest but he has been dealing with an Achilles issue. Porter is a GPP dart play that offers us upside, especially if we think Caroline is limited in any way.
Preferred Plays: Thurman
ABILENE CHRISTIAN vs KENTUCKY
I think a lot of people are going to skip over Abilene Christian in this spot and I think that could be a mistake in GPPs. Lewis and Franklin have big-time upside, even in a tough match-up. We can look at Ricks, Farquhar, and Pleasant as GPP plays. Ricks is the team’s best 3-point shooter going up against a team that can be beaten by 3s. Farquhar and Pleasant offer us some value upside at their price points even if they have to deal with the UK interior. Daniels is a GPP value dart play that I am considering.
Kentucky is going to be annoying to figure out as we want to target the interior players against Abilene. I think we need exposure to Hagans, Herro, and K.Johnson with PJ Washington possibly being limited. Travis, Richards, and Montgomery all make sense for GPP purposes as they all could offer enough upside.
Preferred Plays: Hagans, Herro
ST MARYS vs VILLANOVA
St Marys is coming off of a shocking win in the WCC title game and I think this could be a letdown spot. If this isn’t a letdown and they come out motivated, I think we want exposure to Hunter, Ford, and either Krebs or Kuhse. Hunter has been playing extremely well and I think he has a shot to avoid foul trouble in this spot. Kuhse is somebody I really like to target and he is cheap enough for us.
Nova is a team that I always like to target and I will have exposure in this spot. I know the match-up is a slow one but Samuels is still too cheap and is going to be extremely popular. Booth or Paschall could be GPP winners for us while I think it could be a Bey game. He has the upside we want at his price point.
Preferred Plays: Hunter, Samuels
FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON vs GONZAGA
For FDU, the match-up sucks but they basically play 5 guys as much as they possibly can. Because of that rotation, we have to consider all 5 of those guys. I prefer Edge and Jenkins because they do a ton of the scoring. Bishop, Holloway Jr, and Williams are all in play for GPPs but I lean towards Bishop as he has the match-up that is less likely to lead to foul trouble.
As hard as it is to do, I think I am going to fade Gonzaga in this spot. This could be a game that they win by 40 without relying on any one player to do too much. Clarke and Hachimura have the upside and make sense for GPPs but I question if they are going to be needed enough to go for 40+ in this spot. I could see us using Tillie, Kispert, and Crandall as GPP plays expecting a blowout.
Preferred Plays: Edge, Bishop, Kispert
MONTANA vs MICHIGAN
This is a spot where we need to just fade Montana. I wish Akoh wouldn’t have gotten hurt because this would be a spot to utilize him in a match-up that most would avoid.
Michigan should have no trouble with Montana in this one. I want exposure to Simpson, Teske, and Brazdeikis for sure as they are all in excellent spots. I could see some GPP interest in Poole and Livers but I most likely will fade as this game should be ugly from the start.
Preferred Plays: Teske, Brazdeikis
SETON HALL vs WOFFORD
This game should be somewhat popular as there are a few really solid plays. Seton Hall is all about Powell, Mamukelashvili, and McKnight for me. Powell has elite upside while the other two are just too cheap in my eyes. Wofford isn’t exactly elite on D and they can be beaten by both 2’s and 3’s.
Wofford is going to be extremely popular, as they should be. I am debating doing a full fade on Magee as he has struggled against upper-level competition and he lacks the peripherals we need. I know he could get hot from 3 and drain 8+ from the outside but I am willing to take that chance. Jackson is definitely my preferred Wofford play in this spot. I like attacking Seton Hall on the interior and Jackson the best way to do it. Hoover is in play for me as he is capable of knocking down a bunch of threes for a lot cheaper than Magee. Goodwin is somebody I am considering as a GPP dart option with upside.
Preferred Plays: Powell, Jackson, Hoover
OLD DOMINION vs PURDUE
I am honestly considering just one player from ODU in a spot where they should struggle mightily. That player is X.Green, who has been playing extremely well and is probably $600 too cheap right now. Caver and Stith are just too expensive in this match-up and I can’t figure out which F might have a solid game so I will just fade them all.
For Purdue, I am going to be fading Edwards as he just is not 100% healthy right now. Guys like Eastern and Cline make sense for GPPs as guys are going to pick up additional scoring with Edwards not healthy. Haarms is in a really solid spot and even though I don’t like the price increase, he is my favorite Purdue option. Eifert and T.Williams are two guys that I think could be sneaky in this game.
Preferred Plays: Green, Haarms
BAYLOR vs SYRACUSE
This game appears to be one that is going to be avoided and I think we can take advantage of that. Both teams should put up a fair number of threes as each runs a version of the zone. Vital is a guy that I like a lot as he is the perfect guy for Baylor to be putting at the high post and allow to make plays. He isn’t a great shooter but he can distribute and get to the rim. Should somebody else enter the high post, I would think it’d be Kegler and he offers us upside as well. Perimeter shooter wise, we want to get exposure to Mason, Butler, and Bandoo as they all have the ability to knock down multiple threes and Butler has the ability to rack up a ton of assists from the point.
With the suspension of Howard, we get some clarity on Syracuse. I think the guys we want to get exposure to are Battle, Hughes, and Boeheim against the zone of Baylor. Battle and Hughes are capable of knocking down shots from the perimeter while also being able to drive and get to the FT line. Boeheim can get scorching hot from deep so he offers us an impressive ceiling. I certainly think Chukwu or Dolezaj could be in play for GPPs but I most likely will look elsewhere.
Preferred Plays: Vital, Kegler, Mason, Hughes, Boeheim
Make sure you tune in to the slack channel to get my updates as news comes out! We will be discussing CBB all afternoon and evening long. I will be updating my Coaches-Notes throughout the day. We will discuss what injuries we need to monitor and what they mean to our construction. I will also be posting my cores for each site in slack!
