Good morning to you beautiful people out there in DFS land! You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army. I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2018-2019 CBB season! Remember, if I mention a player as a cash game play they most likely are OK for GPP play. Let’s take a look at what games are on the slate for DraftKings. The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.
Nebraska (63) vs Michigan St (77)
Wake Forest (62) vs Duke (91)
South Carolina (70) vs Texas AM (74)
Virginia Tech (68) vs Florida St (69)
Purdue (73) vs Minnesota (69)
UNC (85) vs Boston College (73)
Pittsburgh (65) vs Miami (70) – DK Only
Kansas (71) vs Oklahoma (70)
Auburn (75) vs Alabama (72)
Kentucky (72) vs Mississippi (68)
Mississippi St (71) vs Tennessee (79)
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NEBRASKA vs MICHIGAN ST
Nebraska has really fallen off a cliff and is limping to the conclusion of this season. I had really liked Roby of late but he has disappointed and I just do not think this is a spot for him. I think Michigan St takes it to Nebraska here. I think Palmer is a fine GPP play with his upside and usage. Borchardt should see enough minutes to make him worth it but fouls are worrisome. I have some interest in Amir Harris as a GPP dart play in a possible blowout.
Michigan St keeps dealing with injuries as we add Ahrens to the list of Langford and Ward. All of these injuries have given us a pretty defined rotation. I think the entire MSU starting lineup is in play tonight, starting with Winston. Winston is my top pay up option, especially for cash. McQuaid is dealing with an ankle thing but is playing through it so he is probably my least favorite of the five. Henry should be a solid value option with Ahrens most likely out. I want a lot of exposure to Tillman and Goins as I have been using post players against Nebraska since Copeland went down.
Preferred Plays: Winston, Tillman, Goins
WAKE FOREST vs DUKE
Wake Forest is in a lot of trouble in this game. I would not be shocked to see them lose by 35+ on the road. I have heard some interest in Brandon Childress and while I like his shooting on the road, I can’t suggest him as much more than a GPP dart because Tre Jones defense is a real thing. The only WF player I am interested in is C.Brown. He is back to his safe ways of putting up the mid-20s in fantasy points. I would prefer that he be priced about $400 cheaper but I may end up his way in cash.
Duke could get Zion back tonight but for just a handful of minutes. With that possibility, I wouldn’t play Zion at all and I think Barrett is just a GPP option at such a high price. I could see using Barrett in cash on FD. The rest of Duke, minus Tre Jones and Jack White, are GPP options for me tonight as Reddish, Bolden, DeLaurier, and O’Connell all have some intrigue but not enough to make me feel super safe as blowouts can mess with minutes this late in the season.
Preferred Plays: Reddish, Bolden
SOUTH CAROLINA vs TEXAS A&M
This is the game that I want to target tonight. Both teams are dealing with injuries and are offering a short enough rotation to make things somewhat predictable. With the injuries SC is dealing with, we are basically guaranteed a 7 man rotation with 1 of those guys not being 100% healthy (Frink). I always love using Silva and will certainly have shares tonight but he is a different player on the road and that worries me here. Bryant and Gravett are two guys that I will almost lock-in as they both are going to play 36+ minutes and eat up a ton of usage. Campbell is a blah option now that he is over $5K, while Haase and Kotsar just don’t excite me. I do have some interest in Frink as a GPP punt play at such a cheap price.
I can’t believe I am actually excited to target players from Texas A&M but here we are! I will be using a ton of Mitchell and Flagg across my cash and GPP lineups tonight. I will have GPP exposures to Nebo, Mekowulu, and Chandler. I really love Nebo’s game but he has been very inconsistent since returning from a knee issue. Either he or Mekowulu could find themselves in a big-time spot against an interior afraid of getting into foul trouble.
Preferred Plays: Bryant, Mitchell, Flagg
VIRGINIA TECH vs FLORIDA ST
Both of these teams have players I have been targeting a ton recently but tonight seems like a night that I might back off on my exposures. Blackshear is always in play for me, especially with Robinson unlikely to play. I do worry about some foul issues, however, he has been locked in the last month or so. My guess is he goes lower owned than he should. I do have some interest in guys like Hill, Outlaw, and Alexander-Walker in this game. I would not be shocked to see one or two of them get us 5x+ return. I just happen to like others around their price points more.
For Florida St, I do not have a ton of interest. Kabengele is probably the best play but I worry about foul issues against Blackshear. Koumadje seems like a guy that doesn’t fit this particular game but has huge per minute fantasy point numbers so he is in play for deep field GPPs. I can never get the guards right for FSU, so at this point, I am just going to stay away.
Preferred Plays: Blackshear Jr
PURDUE vs MINNESOTA
This is a game that I won’t be targeting a ton outside of a couple of GPP plays that I think could go off. Edwards seems to have gotten out of his shooting slump but hasn’t been needed in the second half recently. I think he makes a solid GPP play with huge upside. Cline has been better on the road so he has the shooting upside to pay off on DK. Eastern has been solid and could be in play but I prefer him when he is priced lower. Haarms is probably the GPP play going against a team he went for 35 fantasy points against earlier. I worry about foul issues for him against Murphy and Oturu in Minnesota.
Minnesota is all about Jordan Murphy for me. It is senior night and he is a monster at home, averaging over 42 fantasy points in his home confines. Oturu is an excellent GPP play as he could put up some monster numbers as well. McBrayer is a senior who could be pumped for this game but I worry about his match-up against Edwards. Kalscheur has elite three-point shooting and is always a GPP play. Coffey is coming off of a monster performance and will garner ownership because of it but I think I am leaning towards a full fade.
Preferred Plays: Murphy
UNC vs BOSTON COLLEGE
I really like this spot for UNC, even with them being on the road. BC is coming off of an overtime game that happened on Sunday so 1 day of rest is all BC gets. With BC running some zone defense I really like White and Johnson in this game. I think both are very much cash game safe with the GPP upside we look for. Maye is another one that seems to be very safe but I do worry about his GPP upside going up against S.Mitchell. I don’t have a ton of interest in Williams or Brooks but do have GPP interest in Little.
For BC, I think it’s going to either be all Bowman or all Popovic in this one. I lean towards Popovic as we have been able to use bigs against UNC nearly all season. I think Mitchell is an option as he does a lot of everything for BC. If Tabbs is out again, Jared Hamilton is definitely in play based solely off of all the minutes he has been playing.
Preferred Plays: White, Johnson, Popovic
PITTSBURGH vs MIAMI – DK Only
I have a feeling that this game is going to be bypassed by a ton of players and while I would generally agree with that decision, I think there are a few guys who are in play for GPP purposes. For Pittsburgh, the main guy is X.Johnson and while I prefer him at home he does offer upside at what will be a VERY low owned %. Wilson-Frame is the guy that I am considering a lot for both cash and GPPs tonight. Toney could be used as a GPP dart but the rest of Pitt kind of takes minutes away from each other.
For Miami, I really only have interest in Lawrence II and Izundu. We have been attacking Pitt with interior players and while Lawrence plays more of a stretch-4 spot, he is going to be the most athletic player on the court tonight. Johnson is somebody I had used a ton earlier in the season and he offers upside but his floor has kind of fallen considerably.
Preferred Plays: Lawrence II, Wilson-Frame
KANSAS vs OKLAHOMA
This game doesn’t excite me as much as I would have thought. Kansas is just so tough to figure out with Garrett back and being on the road. Lawson is a pretty safe play and should be considered for all formats, while Dotson has kind of hit a wall. Guys like Ogbaji and Grimes offer some interesting GPP upside to go with a really low floor. Lightfoot will probably be popular but I have my reservations going up against Doolittle.
For Oklahoma, I really only have a love for Doolittle. We have been using post players very successfully against Kansas and tonight should be no different. Senior night will probably mess up OU’s starting lineup with guys like Odomes, Calixte, Reynolds, and McNeace possibly finding themselves on the floor for the opening tip. With the seniors possibly seeing a couple of additional minutes as starters, I think we can consider using Calixte. James is another senior but he’s always in the starting lineup. He would be a solid GPP play as I think most skip over him because of the spot Doolittle is in.
Preferred Plays: Doolittle
AUBURN vs ALABAMA
Earlier in the season, I would have been all about this game, however, this game just doesn’t intrigue me all that much. I am really only considering Harper and McLemore for Auburn in this match-up. I am not a fan of the individual match-up for Okeke and the rest of the regulars are just not exciting.
Another senior night for us to target which really puts me onto Hall and Norris for Bama. I also think Petty is in play as we want to target some three-point shooters against Auburn. I have been using Lewis Jr a lot and while I think he is an OK play tonight, I do not see myself going with him.
Preferred Plays: Hall, Norris
KENTUCKY vs MISSISSIPPI
Kentucky is an interesting team tonight as they are coming off of being embarrassed by Tennessee. I expect the atmosphere in this game to be electric. Washington is one of my favorite GPP plays every time he is on the slate and should be able to show his upside against a weak interior. Richards and Montgomery are going to be extremely popular and for good reason. I lean Richards but I suggest getting exposure to each one. This seems like a bounce-back spot for Herro and K.Johnson. Both should be in your GPP player pool. Hagans is an interesting option to me because he has MUCH better numbers on the road this season.
For Mississippi, I really want to target the perimeter players against UK. Davis is probably the top option, on senior night. Tyree and Shuler are a couple of guys that need to be used in GPPs thanks to their three-point shooting. I do not necessarily like to target the bigs for Mississippi but I think Stevens is worth some GPP consideration as he is going to be needed on the floor for 25+ minutes.
Preferred Plays: Washington, Richards, T.Davis
MISSISSIPPI ST vs TENNESSEE
I really love using Q. Weatherspoon on the road and with this being a huge spot for them, I really think he is an upper-level GPP play. Tyson Carter has been a cash lock recently and while he is priced up a little bit, I think we still have to plug him in for cash purposes. Perry has been somebody we have been plugging in, however, I think this match-up is tough enough that he would end up being just a solid GPP play to me. I do not mind Peters as a GPP play but he isn’t somebody I am going out of my way to plug in.
If this game was on the road for Tennessee I would be worried about a huge let down after their huge win against Kentucky. Tennessee is basically 6 deep as far as the rotation goes so we do know where the minutes will be. My preference for tonight is to look at Turner, who I think is still too cheap, and Schofield for senior night. Williams and Bone make fine options but I lean the other two. Bowden and Alexander are guys that just do not intrigue me at all.
Preferred Plays: Q.Weatherspoon, Carter, Schofield, Turner
Make sure you tune in to the slack channel to get my updates as news comes out! We will be discussing CBB all afternoon and evening long. I will be updating my Coaches-Notes throughout the day and we will discuss what injuries we need to monitor and what they mean to our construction. I will also be posting my cores for each site in slack!
