BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN 2 Location – Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Thanks for purchasing my UFC on ESPN 2 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Philly on big ESPN. DraftKings has some solid contests considering and I look forward to chasing the big GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place with a total of $500k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my first seat into it a few weeks ago and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Alex Perez $9,200 vs Mark De La Rosa $7,000
Alex Pérez
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 135
Reach: 65.5”
Gym: Team Oyama
From: California
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 13(FW)
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -330
This is a very fun fight. Alex Pérez & Mark De La Rosa are two flyweights, who are fighting at bantamweight. Alex Pérez is coming off his first UFC loss after starting 3-0. He was finished in round one by Joseph Benavidez. Benavidez is one of the best fighters in FW history & it isn’t something to be ashamed of. He will be looking to bounce back here with a win in his first fight at BW. He is a big FW & will move into the division just fine in terms of size. Perez is a well-rounded fighter & a finisher. He is a come forward striker and likes to stalk opponents to the cage. He has good foot work & head movement as he cuts off the cage & makes it feel small for opponents. He has nice leg kicks, and good overhand rights. He has nice one-twos. He has a heavy right hook & overhand right. He will throw right hook, straight-left hand combinations. He has fast hooks in close range. He likes to counter with a left hook. Against Jose Torres, he blitzed him with hooks & uppercuts in combination. He will attack the body with punches as well. He will throw nice elbows. He is good at grabbing the Thai plum & landing nice knees to the head. He throws a ton of volume & is very strong in round one. He landed 104 strikes in his round one KO finish of Jose Torres. He did struggle a bit in his last match with the speed of Benavidez. He had a hard time closing the distance, and Benavidez was able to hit, and angle off a few times. He is a big 125er & I do feel he will be able to cut the cage off better at 135. Pérez has 4 KO/TKO’s & has only been finished once by strikes.
Perez is a solid grappler. He likes to get in the clinch and throw nasty uppercuts and hooks in the dirty boxing range. He is good in the transitional periods of striking & grappling. He will throw Thai clinch knees on the break to the head, and body shots. He has nice double legs & occasional body locks but has an awesome single leg. He is very good at using fakes & feints and setting it up with his right hand. On top, he is pretty good. He has good control & he is good at finding the back. He will turk the legs & move to mount. He is dangerous with chokes. He loves to get to the front headlock position and he will look for a variation of different chokes. He will look for anacondas, d’arces and guillotines. He has finished two of his last 4 wins by anaconda choke. He is good at using sprawling & getting in that position when he defends takedowns. He will use it to attack with the chokes, or scramble to top position. In his last fight, when he was taken down by Joseph Benavidez, he was pounded with some hard G&P. He seemed to just accept defeat & just stay in a position without moving where he knew the ref would stop it. He has 6 submissions himself but has been submitted 3 times. He has good cardio & will keep a high pace for all three rounds. Alex Perez is going to be the faster fighter here. He needs to try to stay technical & land shots as De La Rosa tries to get his combinations going. De La Rosa will walk forward in straight lines with no head movement & Perez will definitely land some shots. De La Rosa seems to stop sometimes in scrambles & Perez could capitalize on that. Against Tim Elliott after some scrambling, he just seemed to relax when he was in the front headlock position and got d’arced. D’arces are one of Perez best submissions.
Mark De La Rosa
Age: 24
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 65”
Gym: Genesis BJJ
From: Texas
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 95
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +270
Mark De La Rosa has had a good start to his UFC career. After taking a loss via submission in his UFC debut, he has won back to back fights. His lone loss is that short notice bout against former UFC title challenger, Tim Elliott. De La Rosa throws heavy & doesn’t use a lot of set ups. He will throw heavy lead & counter left hooks. He will throw a left hook, right uppercut combination. He has nice hard hooks in combination in close range. He has fast hands & will unload with hooks & uppercuts to close the distance. He is good at constantly walking fighters down & being able to slip and counter with punches as he does. He has nice low calf kicks, and hard body kicks. He will throw the occasional head kick. He is flat-footed & doesn’t move his head. He can get hit with some nice shots coming in, but he has a good chin. He isn’t the greatest athlete & I feel will struggle vs faster, more explosive strikers on the feet. His constant forward pressure & leg kicks do wear opponents out. He does have some pop in his hands, but not KO power. He is someone who will wear on you over the course of 3 rounds. He has one TKO & has never been finished by strikes.
Mark De La Rosa is very physical, but in this fight I’m not sure he can out muscle Perez. He tries to use his boxing to push fighters towards the cage & then get inside we’re he can get the takedown. He will try to grab double under hooks or the plum clinch. He has good clinch takedowns off the cage. He does a great job of getting a high crotch single and transitioning to the back. He has good reactive double legs. On top, he is heavy & has nice elbows. He has good guard passes & a great back take. He has great control on the back & is good at locking the body triangle in and getting the RNC. He can be taken down, but he has good defense and scrambling ability as well as having a great guard. He has very fast hips and will throw up triangles and armbars very quickly. He almost got Tim Elliot in multiple submissions in his debut off his back. He has great cardio & is a tough guy. He will take shots & continue to come forward and won’t back down. He did struggle to takedown Joby Sanchez in his last match, and I don’t think he can take Perez down. De La Rosa needs to go forward and try to make this a war. He needs to eat the shots of Perez, continue to march him down and land shots of his own. He is going to be at a speed disadvantage at range & needs to go forward, land shots, leg kicks and get him tired. If he can get this fight into round 3, he may be able to take him down and get a submission.
This is a fun fight between two talented 125ers to start off this ESPN card. Both fighters are well-rounded, but I think Perez should have the advantage everywhere here. I think he is the better striker of the two and I also think he is the better wrestler. He should be the guy controlling where this fight takes place and I think we get a clear decision win here from him. I think De La Rosa’s best shot would be to get the fight to the mat in top position and pull off a submission, I just don’t see him being able to land many, if any, takedowns on Perez. I like Perez to get a 30-27 decision here.
On DraftKings, Perez is my preferred play. De La Rosa might make my player pool as well, but I don’t see me having more than 1-2 lineups with him if I make 20. Perez is my favorite fighter priced above 9k and I think a TKO win is in play here. He scored 142 against Torres so I like that he has that kind of upside in his game. I don’t know if he will be a core play of mine or not, but I will be rostering him and I will likely be overweight as well. I think he is playable in all formats but if he doesn’t get a finish he may not reach value.
Winner – Alex Perez via Unanimous Decision
Sabina Mezo $8,800 vs Maryna Moroz $7,400
Sabina Mazo
Age: 22
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Kings MMA
From: Colombia
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 24
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -155
Sabina Mazo will be making her UFC debut. She is a young 22-year-old prospect. She will be taking on 6 fight UFC veteran, Maryna Moroz. Moroz is moving up to 125 lbs for this matchup. Sabina Mazo is a tall, lanky striker. She has a nice jab & quick straight punches. She will throw a jab, right hook. She will attack the body with straight-right hands. She will throw nice uppercuts in combination. She is very good at peppering with fast shots & then mixing in more powerful straight shots. She can overwhelm opponents with volume. She had nice front & round kicks to the body. She has nice leg kicks. She has nasty round kicks to the head. She has multiple head kick knockouts. She will grab the Muay Thai plum, land a knee to the body or head & disengage. She does stand tall & flat footed. She holds her chin high & can be hit clean. When she punches, she holds her chin high also. She has a very strong chin. She has power, and definitely is the more powerful striker in the matchup. She has two knockouts in 6 career wins.
Mazo is a strong clinch fighter. She will throw very heavy knees the body & head. She has nice elbows and uses her length well. Her takedown defense is not good. Fighters are able to easily get in on her legs & take her to the mat. She will attack off her back with triangles & armbars. She is good at taking the back. She will look for rear naked chokes but isn’t a good BJJ fighter & has no submissions. I do feel that she definitely needs to improve her grappling to beat higher level opponents. I wasn’t able to watch her two most recent fights, and the last time I saw someone shoot takedowns on her was in 2015. She was unable to get even close to defending any of them, but I’m sure her defense has improved since then. She is long, and I imagine her guard is hard to pass. She seems very composed & has good cardio for someone so young in their career. She has 0 submissions. Mazo is going to want to keep this fight on the feet & strike. She is the better striker IMO. She has the faster hand speed & is much more dangerous with kicks. She is also more willing to go for it, and not an air puncher like Moroz is. I do expect Moroz to try to take Mazo down, and she has to be ready to defend some takedowns.
Maryna Moroz
Age: 27
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125(Debut)
Reach: 67”
Gym: ATT
From: Ukraine
UFC Record: 3-3
Fight Matrix: 31(SW)
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +135
Maryna Moroz has her back against the wall here. She has lost back to back fights, and with 3 losses in a row would be in danger of getting cut. She has been training in the USA for a while now, and training at ATT this camp, she should have a good game plan. She tends to be a bit of an air puncher & isn’t a dangerous fighter. She will pump out a jab & one-twos. She will throw left hooks. She has a nice left hook, right uppercut combination. She will throw leg kicks & front kicks to the body. She will throw round kicks to the body & head. She will throw spinning back kicks to the body & spinning back fists. She is chinny & due to that she doesn’t commit to her strikes & throws from too far outside. She gives out the illusion she is throwing a lot of volume, but in reality, not much is landing. She has 0 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Moroz actually has most of her finishes off her back. I expect her to try to wrestle here. I see her trying to duck under, get a body lock & get takedowns. She will duck under get double unders, push opponents to the cage, and will pull guard as well. Off her back, she has fairly quick triangles & armbars. On top, she doesn’t do much & isn’t a good wrestler overall. I don’t think she can hang out in the clinch against Mazo, because Mazo throws nice shots there. She should try to counter & land straight punches and hooks when Mazo leaves her chin high. Her best chance to win is to get in the clinch, pull guard and get a sub or just continuously take her down over 3 rounds.
This is a total pass fight for me this weekend. I wouldn’t feel comfortable investing my money in either fighter and I don’t have a strong lean either way. I haven’t been impressed with what I have seen from either fighter and I would expect this to be primarily a striking fight. I do favor Mazo slightly in a striking match because she has shown KO power with her kicks and she throws decent volume. Moroz’ best shot is on the ground, but she doesn’t have the wrestling to get it there. I think pulling guard and getting a submission off her back would be the best way for her to get the win and I would never want to invest in that happening. I will take the favorite to win a close decision here but not with any confidence.
On DraftKings, its dog or pass for me. Pass probably being the better option. I like Moroz here as a live dog and if she can get a submission then she could score highly. However, if she doesn’t get the sub then she probably loses or puts up a 50-point decision win. I think Mazo will need to get her head kick KO for her to end up on the optimal lineup and that is not something I want to invest in. If you are struggling to find a dog, then I think Moroz is in play in all formats, but I think she makes for a better cash game play and I think she has a decent floor in a 3-round loss. If I was making 1-3 lineups I would just fade this fight altogether.
Winner – Sabina Mazo via Split Decision
Ray Borg $9,400 vs Casey Kenney $6,800
Ray Borg
Age: 25
Height: 5’4
Weight: 135 (Debut)
Reach: 63”
Gym: Fit NHB
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Ray Borg is returning after a long layoff. He hasn’t fought since his title loss in 2017 and had a lot of tumultuous events in his life. He had a fight canceled due to the Conor McGregor bus incident, and then a string of fights canceled due to the sickness of his son. His son has improved & he’s ready and motivated to come back. Ray Borg is moving up to 135 lbs & getting a big drop down in competition compared to Demetrius Johnson. He has the experience & the benefit of a full camp which are all plusses for Borg. The negatives are it’s hard to know how much he has been training this last year and half & if he will come back the same. He is still a young guy at only 25, and I have faith he will. Borg is a very fast, explosive athlete, and an elite wrestler. His striking has gotten so much better than his UFC debut. He is very fast and will use very good head movement and range kicks. He will throw big leg and body kicks. He does a great job of moving in and out and being a hard target to time on the feet. He likes to throw an overhand right and straight left. He has a nice check left hook. He has a very nice lead uppercut & is very fast. He will throw a left hook to a leg kick combination. He does a great job of faking single legs & throwing uppercuts or faking double legs and throwing overhand rights. Borg only has career TKO but does pack some power in his punches. He has a good chin & is a tough fighter who won’t be easy to put away.
Ray Borg is an elite wrestler. He is very explosive & has great double legs. He is very fast closing the distance & sets his shots up very well with his strikes. He has nice single leg shots & good chain wrestling. He will get in on a single leg, take the back standing & land a suplex. He will also get in on a double transition to a body lock & dump opponents. On top, he is excellent. He throws a large volume of ground & pound is always looking to move to dominant positions. He has heavy elbows on top & can cut opponents. He has a great mount & is always looking to take the back. He is very good at taking the back as opponents stand up. He will attack with guillotines, d’arces & then quickly scramble to take the back. He is very good in scrambles & almost always ends up in top position. He will attack with submissions and is very good at using them to scramble off bottom. He will attack with omaplata’s, and armbars to create scrambles. He will attack with arm triangles, armbars, and a rear naked choke from mount or the back. He has solid arm triangles as well. He has proven he can hang on the ground with elite fighters on the mat & win such as Jussier Formiga. He has 6 career submissions & is coming off his first career submission loss against Demetrius Johnson, by that crazy arm bar variation. Borg is going to embrace the grind here.
Casey Kenney
Age: 28
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 81”
Gym: Rise Combat Sports
From: Indiana
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 109
Last Fought: 1 Week
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +260
Kenney is a solid overall fighter. He has good wrestling and his striking isn’t bad either. I think Kenney is a better wrestler than Borg, but I think Borg is the better grappler and BJJ player and more likely to finish. Kenney has power on the feet and I would say he is the more likely fighter to get a knockout, but I think he is slightly outmatched here. I think a KO on the feet or a dominant top game would be his best path to victory here. Kenney fought just last week and got a 1st round KO so he should come into this fight in shape and he is in high spirits after that win I would imagine. I think Kenney will win UFC fights and I’d imagine he took this fight on short notice because the UFC promised him a second fight if he loses. Borg is a tough guy to face in a UFC debut, but Kenney could be live here.
Borg has had a few opponent changes here and Kenney is taking this fight on a weeks’ notice. And he fought last weekend in a different organization. He is a solid fighter and I would say does belong in the UFC. However, this is a very tough first fight for him. Ray Borg is a long-time veteran of the sport and he has fought the best of the best. He has had a long layoff since his championship bout 2.5 years ago with Demetrious Johnson because of issues in his family life as well as fights being cancelled. Assuming he hasn’t declined or show any ring rust here, I would expect him to get the job done. Casey is well-rounded and has a solid wrestling game and power on the feet as well. I think the best part of his game is on the mat though and that is where Borg is best as well. I think it would be a bad idea for Kenney to look for takedowns here and I think keeping this fight on the feet would be in his best interest. I think Borg will be able to find takedowns of his own though and I see him having an edge when it hits the mat and he could pick up a submission. I think Kenney will be tough to finish here though so I will pick Borg to win a 29-28 or 30-27 decision here by mixing in takedowns and being the quicker guy on the feet.
On DraftKings, this isn’t a fight I love but I may take a shot or two on each side. I think Borg needs a submission to pay off his $9.4k salary and I am not sure that will happen. I don’t see him scoring well in a decision unless he can get multiple takedowns and rack up a lot of advance points. I think Kenney is in play as well because he is the cheapest fighter on the card and I think he could sneak out a win here. If I was making 1-5 lineups I would probably just fade both sides of this fight. I think Kenney is a solid cash punt, but not even sure I will go there. I am thinking I will have 1-2 shots on both sides but would pick Kenney as my preferred play of the two.
Winner – Ray Borg via Unanimous Decision
Kevin Holland $8,900 vs Gerald Meerschaert $7,300
Kevin Holland
Age: 26
Height: 6’3
Weight: 185
Reach: 81”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 77
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -200
This is a very intriguing matchup. Kevin Holland is coming off his first win in the UFC where he got a third-round submission victory. He had a great debut winning a round & pushing the likely next challenger for Jon Jones, Thiago Santos. He also took that match on about two weeks’ notice. He will be taking on the very experienced Gerald Meerschaert. Kevin Holland is a long, lanky, dynamic striker. He is 6’3” with an 81” reach. He does a good job of staying long. He has a nice jab, good one-twos, and his straight-right hand is accurate. He has a nice check left hook. He will throw long hooks & slaps as well. He will throw jabs & straight-right hands to the body. He lunges in with a lot of his punches & is fast in & out. He can leave his chin high with his hands down & was tagged a couple times by John Phillips in his last match. He will also lean back at times & use that tall man type defense. He is very good with his kicks. He has nice leg kicks. He will attack with inside/outside leg kicks, and oblique kicks to the knees. He has a very good lead leg. He will throw a lot of lead leg hook kicks to the body & head. He has nice round kicks, and heavy rear leg front kicks to the body. He will throw a front kick to a straight-right hand combination. He did a great job of targeting the body of John Phillips with front kicks, hurting him multiple times. When he gets pressured, he will open up with jump knees. He will mix in lead elbows in close range. He is very good at keeping a high guard & rolling with shots in close range. He will let his opponents hit his guard, then try to time elbows & shots in between their combos. It is a bit dangerous because he isn’t moving & there is always the chance the right shot slips through the guard and hurts him. Overall, he is excellent at fighting long & is an awkward puzzle to solve. He did struggle a bit in the second round with a fighter who was just super tough and walked through all his shots. He allowed himself to get backed up against the cage & become more defensive than offensive. He does have a great chin & will talk to opponents and get confidence off taking their shots. After he gets hit he can get emotional and walk forward with his hands down. He definitely is at his best when he is feinting with the lead leg and using it to set up his punches & going forward himself. He has 5 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Kevin Holland is a good grappler. He is a brown belt under Dean Lister. He has solid body locks, and good G&P. He was able to get two nice double legs in his last match, but that was against a fighter with no grappling. Overall, he doesn’t look to go for takedowns much or to work in the clinch. He will throw the occasional clinch elbow, or knee. He will look to get standing guillotines. He will also go for flying armbars & triangles. On top, he will throw hard punches standing in your guard due to his length and can land elbows. He will look to use his length to pass into dominant positions & and get the mount or back. He was able to get a rear naked choke in his last fight. He is dangerous with submissions, he has a nasty guillotine, good triangles and leg locks. He will sweep with omaplatas. He will attack with kimuras. He is active on top or off his back and it’s an interesting wrinkle to a long striker. He does have good takedown defense. He is long, will widen his base against the cage & attack with elbows to the head. He has a solid sprawl as well. Off his back, he will use the same technique of a high guard & head movement to roll with shots & try to land elbows. Against Thiago Santos he had some success with that but couldn’t get-up off bottom and Santos won the fight through top control. He did take that fight on short notice & gassed out in the third round of a 1-1 fight. He has finished all but one of his pro wins & has 6 submissions. He was submitted one time by Rafael Lovato Jr, who is an All-Time Great Jiu-Jitsu competitor. Holland can get a bit wild in there & do some things I don’t think he should do against an opportunistic guy like Meerschaert. He will show disdain for some opponents striking, holding his hands down & being hit more than he needs to. In his last fight against John Phillips he didn’t do as much messing around, because I think he knew Phillips was dangerous & he needs to have that same attitude here. Holland should try to keep this fight standing. He is going to have a big speed advantage & should just fight long. He should use his front leg to keep Meerschaert off balance, feint, throw the lead leg hook kicks to the body & head, the front kicks to the legs, and stay long with his punches. If he can back Meerschaert up, stay long, stay fast, he should have no problem keeping him at the end of his strikes. I do feel that in top position, he could have some success against Meerschaert, but personally I wouldn’t try to entertain much grappling. I definitely wouldn’t pull guard or go for a flying sub against a fighter like Meerschaert. I don’t think he would be a fish out of water on the ground with him, but staying on the feet gives him the easiest, least dangerous path to victory.
Gerald Meerschaert
Age: 31
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 77.5”
Gym: Roufusport MMA
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 39
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +170
Meerschaert is coming off a quick first round loss to Jack Hermannson but proven he’s a dangerous guy. He has been up & down in the UFC and hasn’t had that breakout win yet. Meerschaert is a massive 185 lber. He is an action fighter & usually the fighter moving forward. He has a decent jab, and straight-right hand. He will counter with right hooks. He likes to get fighter’s backs against the cage, where he will unload with long punching combinations to the body and head, and short elbows. He has nasty kicks. He throws nice low leg kicks, and powerful body kicks. He will go up top with head kicks as well. Overall his striking to me is not great. He leaves his head on the center line and can be hit clean with big counters. He is heavy on his lead leg and can get it chopped down. He is very tough, and his ability to take a shot is key to his victories. He has 6 KO/TKO’s in his career, but overall, he isn’t a big knockout threat on the feet. He has only been finished by strikes one time in his career.
Meerschaert is a good grappler, and has a lot of submissions in his career, he is susceptible to being taken down, and submitted himself. He has good single leg takedowns, he does a good job of timing singles when opponents throw kicks. He has nice body lock entries, and he is very physically strong in the clinch. He has good control, and nice short knees and elbows. He will grind in the clinch, and then eventually drop down for a double or single. He has good chain wrestling and can transition from body locks to doubles to singles very fluidly. On top, he has strong ground & pound, and he will rain down straight punches and elbows. He has good guard passing and is very heavy on top. He is very opportunistic with chokes and has a lot of different chokes he can pull off. He has gotten a guillotine, arm triangle, anaconda, and rear naked choke. He can be taken down pretty easily with body locks and double legs. He allows fighters to move quickly to dominant positions, and he stays calm but can lose rounds through being controlled. He has 20 submissions in his career, but has been submitted 8 times himself. Meerschaert should try to not chase and cut off the cage while walking down Holland. He has to get Holland backed against the cage & throw overhands into takedown attempts, try to get Holland on his back & work G&P and look for submissions. Meerschaert has to be going forward & I think is too slow to fight at range with Holland. If he can get Holland backed against the cage & mix in takedowns he could win the fight. Meerschaert nor Holland have been to decision & expect a finish in this matchup.
This is an up and coming prospect vs an experienced veteran. Meerschaert has almost 40 professional fights and he has more submission wins than Holland has fights total. That is his path to victory here. Get the fight to the ground and try to pull off a submission win. I don’t see how he wins this fight on the feet or if it goes to the judges. He needs the sub to win, in my opinion. I expect Holland to have a big edge in the striking department, and he is solid on the ground as well. I think he could even pull of a submission of his own if he got the fight to the mat, but I don’t think that would be the smartest game plan. Holland should look to keep this fight standing and I expect him to be able to do that. If he can, he should win by knockout or judge’s decision. Meerschaert has only been to decision 3 times so I will take the knockout for Holland as my pick.
This is one of the best fights on the card to target for DK. FDGTD is lined at -275 and I think this fight does end early. I think Holland can score highly and pay off his price tag with any win, but a KO is probably his best path to a ceiling score. I think it would be dangerous to take Meerschaert down, but I also think he could rack up a lot of takedown and advance points if he wanted to as well. He is my preferred play and my pick to win and I think he is playable in all formats but more so in GPPs. I also want some Meerschaert as well because if he wins it is likely a submission. At his price that would likely put him on that $30k lineup. I think this is a solid fight to go all-in on if you want but I would say you need this fight in at least half your lineups if not.
Winner – Kevin Holland via 1st round TKO
Enrique Barzola $8,200 vs Kevin Aguilar $8,000
Enrique Barzola
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 67”
Gym: ATT
From: Peru
UFC Record: 5-1
Fight Matrix: 41
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -115
This is a great matchup. Enrique Barzola has been one of my personal favorite fighters and should be a lot better having been training with ATT. Barzola has won 4 consecutive UFC fights, and is a TUF Latin Americas winner. He hasn’t fought in 10 months, and I expect improvements from him. He is a wrestler but improving as a striker. He is fast, has good in & out movement, and constantly pressuring forward. He holds his hands low & is constantly baiting opponents to throw so he can duck under & get takedowns. He has very nice low calf kicks & one-twos. He will fake level changes & come up with one-twos. He does the same thing very nicely with his overhand right. He will slip punches & return with hooks. He’s very good at slipping shots in the pocket & coming back with shots or ducking under for takedowns. The constant threat of the takedown makes his striking much more effective & can freeze opponents. He has solid body & head kicks & is constantly going forward, forcing his opponent to work. He is very good at catching kicks & taking opponents down & can neutralize their kicking games. He has great cardio & fights at a fast pace. He has good defense overall, but he can get emotional and invite brawls. That tendency almost cost him on his fight against Gabriel Benitez, where he was goaded in and dropped with less than 5 seconds left in the fight. Aguilar hits hard & he can’t entertain any of that here. He is extremely tough & won’t stop coming forward unless you put him out. He has never been finished. He definitely isn’t a huge threat for a standing knockout & much more of a grinder. He has 5 KO/TKO’s, but none in the UFC.
Barzola is a very good grappler & explosive wrestler. He is very physical & can manhandle opponents in the octagon. He is very good at using his striking to get clean entries on double legs. He can land big explosive slam takedowns. He is good at ducking under & getting in on double under hooks as well. He will drive & control his opponent against the cage and chain wrestle. He will get the right waist, move to the back and get suplexes or drag his opponents to the mat. He will chain takedowns together, until usually finishing with a double. He does a good job of picking up and slamming his opponent in the open mat instead of against the cage, making it harder for them to stand up. On top, he is more of a control fighter. He will look for G&P, and just hold and grind his opponent out. He does have some pretty solid ground & pound from guard. I haven’t seen anyone try to take him down & put him on his back and I highly doubt it happens here. He has never been submitted, but he did show some fear of Matt Bessette’s guard, not being willing to stay in top position there. He has 4 submissions & never been submitted. Barzola is going to be looking to pressure forward, move in & out, use his low kicks and combos to get takedowns. If he can back Aguilar against the cage and get in on his legs, chances are he’s going to get him down. He should also attack in the transitionary periods between striking & grappling, land hard elbows & big knees if the takedowns aren’t successful and reshoot. He needs to avoid getting clipped, because he could get KO’d, but he is a warrior & will push the fight. If Barzola gets takedowns he will win the fight most likely in my opinion.
Kevin Aguilar
Age: 30
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: Longview MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 29
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: -105
Kevin Aguilar is a knockout artist, who won a war in his UFC debut. It was a back & forth affair against tough UFC veteran Rick Glenn. A win over the 5-1 Enrique Barzola would be extremely impressive, and most likely get him a top 15 opponent. Aguilar is a brawler with huge power in his right hand. He is more of a counter puncher & tries to use lateral movement and walk opponents into his punches. He has a fairly good jab, and decent low leg kicks. He does a good job of leaping in with nice left hooks. He has a devastating overhand & right hook. He will throw the overhand right at range, and his right hook in the pocket is nasty. He is willing to sit down & trade shots. He can stand flat footed & I feel he needs to use more movement, because if not Barzola will take him down. He will throw straight punches in combination. He has a nice straight-left to a right uppercut combination. He will attack the body with punches. He will throw the occasional body or head kick, but he isn’t much of a kicker. He tends to allow himself to get backed up early, gets reads, and by the end of the fight is doing the stalking. He isn’t overly athletic, but he is deceptively fast & his power must always be respected. He can also eat big shots & continue to march forward. He is hittable & doesn’t move his head much but can take a shot. He has 10 KO/TKO’s & has only been finished by strikes one time.
Aguilar isn’t a grappler, and he’d prefer this fight to be contested on the feet. He can get backed to the cage, but his power makes opponents hesitant to get inside & he will time nice counter uppercuts to defend level changes. His takedown defense looked improved against Rick Glenn, but his takedown defense isn’t great. He is a bit flat footed & can be double legged, as well as tied up against the cage. He was taken down & controlled in rounds 1 and 2 vs Joey Gomez on the DWCS. He won a split decision, but it was a 50-50 fight. He was able to drop Rick Glenn in round 3 & landed some big G&P from top position. He tends to get better & see the takedown entries easier as fights go along. Off his back, he doesn’t have much, and I do think if Barzola takes him down he can hold him down. He only has one submission & has never been submitted. Aguilar needs to keep this fight on the feet & make Barzola pay for closing the distance. He has to land his right hand in close and deny the takedowns. If he can catch Barzola with a big shot, he can knock him or anyone out. He should try to time the uppercuts as Barzola level changes as well.
This is a striker vs grappler matchup. If this fight stays standing, then Aguilar should win. If he can’t keep is standing, then Barzola probably gets his hand raised. Aguilar is the much more exciting striker and I think he has the better chance of getting a knockout as well. However, Barzola lands 6.17 takedowns per 15-minutes, so he is obviously not going to want to stand the entire time with Aguilar. I think this will all come down to Aguilar being able to stop the takedowns and if he can’t then he probably loses a decision from Barzola getting him to the mat multiple times. I think this would be a more exciting fight if it did stay standing, but I have to lean with the wrestler here because I am confident he will be looking to wrestle, and I don’t see Agular stuffing them all. I think Barzola gets takedowns every round and gets his hand raised with a 29-28 or 30-27 decision win.
On DraftKings, Barzola is my preferred play but I expect him to be one of the highest owned fighters on the card. His wrestling is great for DraftKings and that is what he needs to use to win this fight. If he wins, he probably gets 5 or more takedowns and scores highly. It won’t be hard for him to pay off that $8.2k salary. If you want to go all-in on Barzola then I wouldn’t talk you off it, but I want some Aguilar exposure as well. I think Aguilar is the better striker and he could get a KO here. I think he will be able to stuff takedowns and get up from them as well. If he can keep this on the feet longer than it is on the ground, then he can win this fight. It would also kill off 40-50% of the field as well with all the Barzola lineups. This is going to be a fight I target a lot and if I was making 10 lineups I would probably have 4-5 Barzola and 3 Aguilar. I will probably be in line with the field on Barzola and above the field with Aguilar. I would say Barzola is the only cash game option from this fight though and I am fine with eating the chalk there.
Winner – Enrique Barzola via Unanimous Decision
Desmond Green $9,300 vs Ross Pearson $6,900
Desmond Green
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Combat Club
From: New York
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 56
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -445
Desmond Green is getting a good opportunity to bounce back here. He has a favorable matchup against an aging veteran and needs to make a statement with a finish here. He has had some bad luck in his UFC tenure thus far. He has had a couple split decisions go the other way, along with two of his opponents missing weight severely. It seems the UFC is giving him a good matchup to make up for it here. Green is a great athlete & well-rounded fighter. He is very fast. He likes to use his range, stay on the outside, throw kicks and dart in with dangerous hooks. He has a nice jab and good straight-right hand. He will throw some nice counter overhands and uppercuts from odd angles. He has very nice counter straight punches. Since he is a counter striker, he can tend to give up the center, and even though he may be landing more damage, him getting walked down could be deceiving. He looks as if he can be a very dangerous guy when he lets it go, but he tends to play it safe. He will do just enough to get the job done instead of opening up and finishing the fight. This was most evident against Gleison Tibau, but he said in a recent interview he is guaranteeing a finish for this fight. He is hard to hit & has very good overall defense. He has 5 career KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes. He just pushed Mairbek Taisumov in a striking match to a decision a lot of people thought he won, and Taisumov was knocking out everybody.
Desmond Green is an All-American wrestler, and very explosive. He has very fast single & double leg shots & if he wants to come in here with a wrestling heavy game plan he should be able to take down Pearson. He hasn’t wrestled very much in the UFC & prefers to strike. His takedown defense is excellent. He is like a cat & will pop right back up to his feet if taken down as well. He has been able to deny takedown attempts from elite wrestlers like Khabilov & Prazares. He only has 2 submissions & isn’t a big submission threat. He has been submitted twice in his career. Green has gassed in fights, but that was at 145 lbs and he seems to have good cardio & 155. Green should look to use his movement & kicks and then time takedowns. He is going to be the more athletic, bigger, more powerful, younger, probably all the intangibles favor Green, and this is his fight to lose.
Ross Pearson
Age: 34
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 69”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: United Kingdom
UFC Record: 12-12-1
Fight Matrix: 91
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +355
Ross Pearson is trying to bounce back after a comprehensive decision loss to John Makdessi. He was dominated in that match and took massive damage. He has lost 5 of his last 6 fights and has looked very bad lately. Pearson is a counter boxer who likes to work behind a jab and good head movement. He will slip and return with the jab right hand or right cross. He is good at landing lunging straight punches. He is great at slipping and ripping in the pocket and if you give him the game he wants he’s not bad. He can get caught with overhands, knees and kicks due to slipping and his chin is going. Desmond Green is a fighter who can use kicks & movement, and this is a tough matchup for Pearson even standing. Pearson has 7 career KO/TKO’s and has power in his hands. He has been KO/TKO’d 4 times. Pearson is going to need to force Green to fight here. He has to push the pace, get inside of Green’s kicks, and counter with punches over the top. He has to force Green to fight at his pace & see if he can land a shot and take Green out or win a close decision.
This line is where it is because of Green’s wrestling. He should be able to get the fight to the ground and easily win with his wrestling. I am not so sure he shoots for takedowns often enough in this fight to justify that line though. Pearson is the better boxer and if Green wants to stand with him then this fight could be much closer than the line indicates. I am going to side with Green to win, and hope that he does use some wrestling, but I would be careful putting him in parlays at that price. He only averages 1 landed takedown per 15-minutes and he doesn’t have a ton of KO power. We are most likely looking at a decision win from Green here but at the current betting line this could be a dog or pass fight.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Ross. I think he is live if Green wants to strike for 3-rounds and any win at his price could put him on the winning lineup. I don’t see him finishing Green though, so I don’t think he has much of a ceiling, but he is a decent punt in all formats. Generally, I would just fade Green here. He is going to need to have a wrestling heavy game plan or get a finish to pay off his $9.3k salary. However, I think everyone is going to fade him this week and I don’t love the $9k range. I like that he is going to be very low owned and I think he could go out there and get a KO or a bunch of takedowns. I will have some exposure to both guys here, but Green is purely an ownership play for me in GPPs only.
Winner – Desmond Green via Unanimous Decision
Marina Rodriguez $9,100 vs Jessica Aguilar $7,100
Marina Rodriguez
Age: 31
Height: 5’7
Weight: 115
Reach: 65”
Gym: A.S. Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0-1
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-0-1
Current Streak: 1 Draw
Betting Odds: -340
Marina Rodriguez is getting her second crack at a UFC win. She had a decent debut, going to a draw with long time UFC veteran Randa Markos. Randa Markos has a similar style to Aguilar, and it was a good matchup to prep for this fight. Rodriguez was expected to face Alexa Grasso, who is more of a striker, so she probably did have to switch up the game plan a bit. Rodriguez is a striker & a former kick boxing world champion. Rodriguez is much more of a kicker than a puncher. She really only tends to look for a jab, right hook, jab, straight-right hand, jab, overhand right or a straight-left hand. She leaves her chin high at times when she’s punching & can get countered clean. She has very nice low leg kicks. She will throw hard front kicks to the body & head. She will throw solid round kicks to the body & head. She will throw superman punches or spinning back fists to close the distance & get into the clinch. She did a great job of battering the lead leg of Randa Markos and hindered her movement. When fighters blitz her, she tends to exit in straight lines & Markos was able to land clean straight punches and back her to the cage with her striking. Overall, I am not extremely impressed with her range striking. She does have great cardio & will continue to go forward. She was able to put a lot of pressure on the feet & win round 3 vs Randa Markos. She has 5 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Rodríguez is at her best in the clinch. She does a great job of getting good head positioning, turning her opponent to the cage and landing nasty knees. She has excellent knees to the body & head. She will throw hard short elbows to the head as well. She has big power in her clinch strikes & that’s where she gets the majority of her finishes. She isn’t a bad grappler & actually will go for takedowns against the cage herself. She has pretty good overall takedown defense. She was also able to sweep Markos a couple times & take top position. She was taken down a few times by Markos & was mounted in round one. She showed good composure & although she couldn’t get up, she was able to survive the round. When she can get top position, she has some pretty solid G&P. She will posture up in half guard & land hard knees to the body & elbows to the head. She just has one career submission & has never been submitted. Rodriguez has tremendous cardio & her pressure and pace is one of her best assets. Rodriguez is going to want to go forward, stuff the takedowns and beat Aguilar up.
Jessica Aguilar
Age: 36
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: ATT
From: Mexico
UFC Record: 1-3
Fight Matrix: 26
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +280
Jessica Aguilar is jumping in on short notice here. She is getting about 10 days’ notice for this fight. She is coming off a pretty brutal loss, where she was busted up & ultimately submitted by Weili Zhang. Zhang is one of the best fighters in the division & this is a much different matchup. Aguilar was the number one girl in the world before the UFC opened the female divisions and is a legend of the sport. Her UFC tenure hasn’t gone quite how she would have liked it, with a 1-3 record. She is 36 years old and looks to be fading a bit. Aguilar is a wrestler, and extremely tough. Aguilar is in perpetual forward motion. She likes to throw heavy leg kicks & one-twos. She will throw straight punches in combination to close the distance. She will throw a jab, right hook. And she likes to throw an uppercut, right hook. She likes to try to grab the plum clinch & throw a step-in knee to the body or head. She isn’t very fast & just plods forward in straight lines. She can be tagged closing the distance, because she doesn’t move her head. She has gotten better at circling away & using lateral movement to retake the center. She is also good at catching kicks or knees. I actually thought she looked faster with her striking vs Zhang. She was able to quickly get inside & threw some nice right hooks. She is very tough & will bite down on her mouth piece and continue to come forward. She doesn’t tire & won’t get discouraged if the fight isn’t going her way. Aguilar has two KO/TKO’s in her career & isn’t a big knockout threat. She is super durable & has never been finished by strikes in her 27-fight career.
Aguilar is a grinder & she is going to have a grappling heavy game plan here. I see her trying to use her strikes to get inside & get single legs or push opponents to the cage. She is very good at catching kicks & knees, and I see her using that to try to take Rodriguez down as well. Aguilar does a good job of using her straight punches & walking through her opponent’s shots to get in on body locks against the cage. She will grind & drop down for singles and doubles. She will get the Muay Thai plum & attack with knees. She got hit with some big clinch elbows & was taken down directly into side control & beat up on the mat by Weili Zhang. She was eventually submitted with a triangle armbar. She has a good single leg from the open mat, and I see her constantly looking for takedowns in this matchup. On top, she is always working and throwing ground & pound to the body and head. She likes to stay heavy & pressure pass to dominant positions. She has solid Jiu-Jitsu, and 8 career submissions. She has a very good arm triangle. She has been submitted twice in her career. Aguilar is going to have to pressure forward, stay in Rodriguez’ face & not let her breathe. She needs to try to get inside & use her right hook & overhand to counter the straight punches of Rodriguez, back her up to the cage and take her down. If she can get on top of Rodriguez & start to grind on her, she could slow her down & the striking could become closer. She needs to try to catch the kicks of Rodriguez, along with using more singles from the open mat, and not try to hand around in the clinch too long. Aguilar has her back against the wall here & badly needs a win. If she can stay in Rodriguez’ face, pressure, go forward, make it an up & down fight, she could get the win.
This is another striker vs grappler matchup, but I am going to lean with the striker in this one. Aguilar is going to need to get this fight to the ground and I don’t think she can do that consistently. I do think Rodriguez is going to have a big edge on the feet though and she could possibly get a finish there as well. She is more of a volume striker than she is power, but she could overwhelm Aguilar here and even get a standing TKO. Aguilar is well past her prime and I think the odds are right on this one. She may be able to win round one if she can get takedowns, but I think it goes downhill for her after that. I’ll take Rodriguez by a 3rd round TKO.
On DraftKings, Rodriguez is my preferred play of the two. I think she will be the much better striker and I think she can finish Aguilar with the volume of strikes she can land. The issue with her is that she is $9.1k and she will need the finish to pay that off. If she dominates on the feet for 3-rounds she could score an ~80-point win and at her salary that isn’t going to cut it. If you think Aguilar is live, then I think you should play her. If she wins it will be from a grappling game plan and she could end up on the optimal if that is the case. I may full fade her here, but if not, it would be 1-2 lineups max. I think she gets most, if not all takedowns stuffed and then gets picked apart on the feet. I don’t see either of these ladies being highly owned, so I will probably go overweight on Rodriquez here. However, if you want to full fade this fight I think that is totally fine.
Winner – Marina Rodriguez via 3rd round TKO
Sodiq Yusuff $8,700 vs Sheymon Moraes $7,500
Sodiq Yusuff
Age: 25
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 71”
Gym: Team Lloyd Irving
From: Nigeria
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 197
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -145
Another Nigerian prospect is taking center stage here. Sodiq Yusuff is looking to make it 2-0 in the UFC. Yusuff in my opinion is a tantalizing prospect, and a super athlete. He likes to call himself blacksplosive & you can see why when you watch his fights. His hand speed is something else. He has a very nice jab and a nasty one-two. He will throw a one-two, left hook combination. He has a heavy overhand right. He will throw nice hooks in combination in the pocket. His counter right & left hooks in the pocket have big power, and when he lands opponents feel it. He is excellent at slipping & returning. He likes to back himself towards the cage, and goad opponents into trading. He will slip & rip with big hooks, straight punches, and even lead elbows. He is good at going first, landing a shot & moving laterally as well. He will throw nice jabs & straight-right hands to the body. He is very good at controlling the center and a lot of his opponents get backed up behind the warning track. His speed, explosiveness, & power seems to really shock people early and they get into a defensive shell. He is good at sliding in & out of range. He hasn’t shown many kicks in previous fights, but in his last fight against Mike Davis, he was throwing nasty low leg kicks He has a nice snap kick to the face, and round kick to the head also. His speed is truly what makes him a potentially special fighter. The ability to close distance and land punches, and just his pure hand speed is absurd. He has been KO’d one time, but it was in a freak way. He got stunned by the mat, and then finished with ground & pound. He has good power and has finished 5 of his 8 wins via KO/TKO.
Yusuff likes to get you against the fence and control you there. He will hold you against the cage and land knees, bank time and take the round. He is good at getting doubles and keeping top position. He will posture & land big shots from the guard or half guard. He will get the front head lock position and snap you back down if you try to get-up. He has very good takedown defense. He is powerful & usually will reverse position against the cage or deny takedowns in the open mat. He has great get-ups and is extremely explosive, so I imagine he is extremely hard to hold down. He attacked with a kimura to reverse position when Mike Davis tried to take him down & stuffed all his takedowns. He has good cardio and is very calm and composed in the cage. He has no submissions, and never been submitted himself. Yusuff needs to stay technical & smart here. I feel it’s a good idea to in the first round, use his punches to stalk Moraes to the cage, get inside and control him. He should try to hold him against the cage, land some short shots & maybe get a takedown or two, to tax the gas tank of Moraes. I feel once he gets Moraes’ arms heavier, his speed, jab and slipping & ripping in the pocket will be more fruitful. If this fight gets into the later rounds, I think it favors Sodiq majorly especially in round 3. If Moraes gasses out like he did vs Sayles I think Yusuff will finish him.
Sheymon Moraes
Age: 28
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Team Nogueira
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 67
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +125
Sheymon Moraes is a power striker who will be going for 3 consecutive UFC wins. He had a war with Julio Arce, in which he hurt him multiple times, who I believe is a good fighter. He is very dangerous & has one shot knockout power. Moraes has heavy leg kicks & nice jabs. He has fast one-twos. He has a nasty straight-right hand, left hook combination. He will throw a left hook, right straight combination. He throws everything into his left hook at times & can get out of position, but if it lands, it’s probably good night. He dropped Julio Arce with his straight-right hand & he has big power in his shots. He has nice one-twos to the body. He has nasty switch kicks to the body & head. He will throw nice front kicks to the body & head. He throws nice standing elbows with both arms, and overall is a dangerous guy. He isn’t very high output and can get out volumed over three rounds. He does a decent job of walking opponents into shots and counter punching, but he is a bit flat footed and slows as the fight goes on. He has big power with 5 KO/TKO’s in 10 wins.
Sheymon Moraes has struggled with grapplers over his career & has been submitted multiple times. He is good in the clinch offensively. He does a good job landing knees to the body and nice short elbows. He has strong knees in the Muay Thai clinch. He landed some big elbows against Moraes and really cut open his face. He can be controlled against the fence & Julio Arce was able to take his back from standing position. He allows fighters to get in on body locks & double legs. He is pretty good off his back, he has good triangles and leg locks. He has improved his takedown defense & is much better than he was earlier in his career.
Moraes showed some nice ground & pound in his last fight. He did a good job of stacking the legs & coming down with big straight punches & hammer fists. When he can get into a dominant position & posture up, he will land heavy shots. He isn’t a submission threat from top position & has zero career submissions. He has been submitted twice himself, but against elite competition in Marlon Moraes, and Zabit Magomedsharipov. Moraes tends to slow down majorly in fights & was almost finished in round three against Matt Sayles. Moraes needs to try to go for forward, and force Sodiq into more of a war. I don’t think he has the same type of fluidity and speed with straight punches & combinations as Sodiq does and needs it to be wilder to get it done. He should try to get Sodiq to put his back against the cage and throw those hard hooks & straight punches. His power always makes him a guy who can win a fight against anyone.
This is my 2nd favorite fight on the card behind the main event. Both guys are awesome strikers and I don’t expect any takedowns in this fight. This is going to be two talented strikers going at it for 15-minutes or until one of them drops. I have been more impressed with what I have seen from Yusuff though and I expect him to be the fighter pushing forward and setting the pace. I am going to agree with the oddsmakers here and pick Yusuff to get his hand raised in a fun 15-minute battle. Either guy could get knocked out, but I am taking Yusuff by decision and I think the longer the fight goes the better his chances get with Moraes gassing later in the fight.
On DraftKings, Yusuff is my preferred play. I don’t like that we probably won’t see any takedowns in this fight, so a KO is likely the only way one of these two scores over 100 DK points. I expect this to be a popular fight so if you want to fade it in GPPs that might not be a bad idea. I will probably have this fight in about 30-40% of my lineups and more so with Yusuff. I like what I have seen from this kid and I could see him overwhelming Moraes here. In any round really. I also think he could pay off his $8.7k salary in a decision win but I don’t think it is likely. I see a decision win from him totaling maybe 80-points or so, and even less for Moraes. I do think Moraes will have an easier time paying off his salary in a decision win, but I am only going to have maybe 2-3 lineups with him out of my 20. I have considered Yusuff in cash but not sure I will go there or not. I think both are playable in cash, but I may stick to GPPs.
Winner – Sodiq Yusuff via Unanimous Decision
Kennedy Nzechukwu $9,000 vs Paul Craig $7,200
Kennedy Nzechukwu
Age: 26
Height: 6’5
Weight: 205
Reach: 83”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Nigeria
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 96
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -175
The Nigerian take over continues. Kennedy Nzechukwu is a huge, athletic, Nigerian fighter coming out of Fortis MMA. He is 6’5 with an 83” reach and is a massive 205er. He trains at Fortis MMA and is very green in MMA. I expect him to come out and show huge improvement every time out. He has only been training MMA for 5 years. He is still very raw. He will try to fight long and throw his jab out there. He has good hand speed & fast one-twos. He will throw nice front kicks to the body & fast round kicks to the head. You can definitely tell he is just thinking & learning in there. He will be very low volume at times & not throw many strikes besides his one-two. He does a lot of reaching out with his hands & fighters can land shots over the top. He also has tall man’s defense & leans back instead of moving his feet. He has been dropped & gets hit clean in many fights. He does hit hard & has 4 KO/TKO’s in 4 fights. He has never been finished.
Kennedy is not a great grappler. He is strong in the clinch though and will get wrist control and land hard elbows. If he gets on top, he has good G&P, but his takedown defense is very questionable. He allows fighters to get in on his legs & get easy double legs. He will also give his back as he stands up & the caliber of fighters he’s faced haven’t been able to capitalize on that. He doesn’t seem to have anything off his back & is a fish out of water. He has been able to stand up fairly quickly against these fighters, but the fact he’s being taken down by such low-level opposition is alarming. He does seem to have pretty good cardio. He has no submissions & has never been submitted. Kennedy needs to keep Craig on the outside with his shots & then try to land hard elbows and punches when Craig tries to get takedowns. He needs to try to stay long, use his jab, one-two and sit down on the shots and try to hurt Craig. This is a huge step up in completion for Kennedy & he needs to be very sharp in here to get it done.
Paul Craig
Age: 31
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 76”
Gym: Scottish Hit Squad
From: Scotland
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: 61
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +155
Paul Craig is a 5 fight UFC veteran, and has his back against the wall here. He has lost 3 out of 4 fights, and desperately needs a win here. He has much more experience and has fought the much stiffer competition. Paul Craig isn’t a great striker. He likes to throw out a jab and try to stay long, as he does have a long reach. He likes to throw round and front kicks to the body and will also throw nice spinning kicks to the body and head. He will throw a one-two, but his hands aren’t great. He likes to counter, and go second, but if fighters pressure and close the distance on him he struggles. He seems to fall in love with one shot and get super predictable like throwing a switch high kick over and over and with little power. If you get him moving backwards and throw overhands to counter his jab, he has little answer and will crumble. He doesn’t react well to shots. He has been finished in three of his last four fights, and he took a lot of punishment against Ankalaev as well. He doesn’t have great power, and only 1 KO/TKO in his career.
Paul Craig is a dangerous submission artist, with 7 submissions in 8 wins. Craig has good, dirty boxing, he will attack with hard uppercuts and solid knees. He is open to be hit in close range and needs to be careful there against Kennedy. Craig has pretty good single and double legs, and he showed improved wrestling against Ankalaev & Crute. He doesn’t have incredible top control and fighters are able to stand up from under him, but he will attack with front chokes, and land short punches and elbows. Off his back, he is dangerous if you are in his guard, he has a nasty triangle and armbar. He will land hard elbows in his guard and beat fighters up off his back. If you pass his guard, fighters are able to hold and beat him down. He does do a good job of being calm and surviving, and just needs one moment to lock up a submission. His cardio isn’t bad and he’s able to go hard for 3 rounds. Paul Craig should look to use his striking to get inside & get takedowns here. I do think he can get them & Kennedy is green on top. If he can, I see him being able to get to dominant positions, and work submissions. Kennedy is long & his guard may be hard to pass, but I don’t see him sweeping or threatening with subs. If he tried to get-up how he usually does, giving his back, I believe Craig can capitalize on that. Craig isn’t too outgunned on the feet either and I could see him landing clean.
I think this fight is on the main event in hopes of Nzechukwu getting a highlight KO on ESPN. I don’t see why else Paul Craig would have this main event spot, honestly. Nzechukwu doesn’t look like a world beater, but if he can keep this fight on the feet I think the UFC gets what they are looking for. Craig has some dangerous submission in his arsenal, but he doesn’t really have many ways to get the fight to the ground. He usually capitalizes on his opponents taking him down and I don’t see that happening here. On the feet, Craig doesn’t have anything to really worry about and I would expect Nzechukwu to eventually be able to get a knockout, and that could even come early in the fight.
I love this fight for DraftKings. This is a top 2-3 fight on the card and with its -375 FDGTD line I think we could go all-in on it for GPPs. I would be surprised to see this fight go all 3-rounds and if it does then I don’t see the winner scoring highly. I think this is KO for Kennedy or sub for Craig. My preferred play is definitely Kennedy, but I will have Craig LUs as a hedge. If he wins, it is likely by finish and at $7.2k that will put him on the $30k lineup. I also expect Kennedy to be massive chalk and Craig to be low owned. I think Kennedy would be the only cash game play of the two, but it is more of a GPP fight. I don’t expect this fight to hit the 3rd round so I feel pretty good about the winner being in the optimal and if I was making 10 lineups I would probably go 6-7 Kennedy and 2-3 Craig.
Winner – Kennedy Nzechukwu via 1st round (T)KO
Karolina Kowalkiewicz $8,600 vs Michelle Waterson $7,600
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Age: 33
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 64”
Gym: Shark Top Team Łódź
From: Poland
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
This is pretty good match making. Karolina Kowalkiewicz is looking to bounce back from arguably the best knockout in woman’s straw weight history. It has only been 5 months & this is a very fast turnaround. Kowalkiewicz has established herself as a top tier SW with wins over Randa Markos, Rose Namajunas, & Felice Herrig. She also had a competitive title fight with Joanna Jedrzejczyk. She needs a win here to retain that stature, and a loss could probably bounce her out of the top 5. Karolina is a tough, come forward striker. She is a plodder & relies on taking shots to give shots & get inside. She has a nice jab, and solid one-two. She will throw heavy leg kicks. She will throw jab, right upper cut combos, and left, straight-right hook combinations. She will attack the body with strikes. She will blitz forward with 4-5 shot combinations when she gets opponents on the back foot. She can run in with one-twos and her chin high & be countered. She will stick in the pocket & trade. She doesn’t have a lot of head movement, keeps her left hand low, and gets hit a lot but it doesn’t seem to faze her as she will just march you down with a one-two, she throws in combination and has a lot of volume. She will overwhelm her opponents with constant forward pressure and shots. She will throw body and leg kicks, and the occasional head kick. She will throw spinning kicks to the body & head as well. She doesn’t have the best hand speed & that showed in her last match. Andrade was able to get inside early & was much faster than Karolina. Karolina does have great composure. She stays calm & will be able weather storms and come back. She has shown great durability over her career but was knocked out very badly in her last fight. She is coming back in 6 months. That was the first time she was finished with strikes & we have to monitor how her chin comes back. Karolina doesn’t really have big power with one career TKO.
Karolina is an excellent inside fighter. In the clinch she is nasty. She has great elbows & knees and can really bully opponents in the cage. She was able to wear out the champion Rose Namajunas with knees in the clinch. Karolina has good clinch takedowns & solid top control. She will attack with nice G&P and has decent control. When she was taken down by Felice Herrig, she was able to sweep into mount & attack with a triangle. She will be the physically stronger fighter here. She has pretty solid takedown defense, and get-ups. She has been submitted one time by Claudia Gadelha very early. She isn’t a huge submission threat herself with two submissions. Karolina is going to be the bigger, rougher & rugged fighter. If she can walk down Waterson with straight punches & uppercuts she could hurt Waterson. Waterson felt the punches of Cortney Casey, and I think Karolina hits harder. If Karolina can get in the clinch, beat Michelle up there with her physicality, and tire her out, it could slow the movement of Michelle.
Michelle Waterson
Age: 33
Height: 5’3
Weight: 115
Reach: 62”
Gym: Jackson-Wink MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 10
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +130
Michelle Waterson is a smaller, quicker karate fighter. Waterson likes to dart around the octagon and is going to need to have her movement on point here. She will pump out her jab, and a jab, straight-right hand. She has nice leg kicks and will throw oblique kicks to the knees & sidekicks to the body of opponents moving forward. She was able to land some nasty front & hook kicks to the face in her last match against Felice Herrig. She will throw a sidekick to the leg or body to a round kick to the head. She will throw really fast round house kicks to the head. She tends to not have much when opponents can walk through her kicks. Fighters can back her to the cage & land shots in boxing range. That’s where she cannot be in this fight, because Karolina is much bigger than her. Waterson does have 3 KO/TKO’s, and has only been TKO’d once, but I question her chin. She was dropped hard with a head kick by Rose Namajunas, prior to being submitted.
Michelle Waterson is actually a solid grappler with good takedowns. She has good clinch takedowns and was able to get several body locks against Felice Herrig. She will look for hip tosses as well. If she is able to win the clinch against Karolina and take her down, that will be huge for her in the fight. She can be bullied in the clinch, and I actually feel she should look to just strike and move instead of grappling here, unless she can land a reactive shot outside the clinch. Waterson is good on top, she has good ground & pound and advances position fairly quickly. She will look to take the back and get rear naked chokes. She wasn’t able to pass the guard of Cortney Casey, and was threatened with a lot of close submissions, but fended then off. Off her back, she has nice armbars, triangles and fast hips. She will use leg locks to get top position & is good in the scrambles. She has 9 career submissions & has been submitted 3 times herself. Michelle is going to need to have quick in & out movement here. She needs to use her oblique kicks to the legs & front kicks to the body to stop the forward movement of Karolina. She should try to stick to just throwing straight punches & rely more on kicks. Once she gets Karolina reacting to the body kicks, she could go high with her front & hook kicks. If she can time takedowns like double legs, do it, but I don’t advise trying to get them in the clinch. I think in the clinch she will get zapped of her cardio & Karolina will win that battle. If Michelle can use her movement & kicks to pot shot Karolina from the outside & out volume her, that’s how she will get the victory.
This should be a fun fight. Both fighters have solid skills on the feet but if this were going to be a 15-minute striking battle, I would side with KK to get her hand raised. She is the better overall striker and she throws at a higher pace as well. I don’t see her getting a knockout, but I think it would be a clear decision. I don’t see Waterson wanting this to be a striking match though. I expect her to have a decent edge on the ground and I think she will look to take it there often. She does land 2.23 takedowns per 15-minutes and she lands them at a 68% rate. I think if she can land takedowns in two of the three rounds then she is very live in this fight. She will need to keep the fight on the mat for a decent amount of time if she lands the takedowns, but I think she can. She could even possibly lock up a submission as well, but I think this goes all 3 rounds. I am going to pick Waterson to pull off the upset here in a close split decision, but it is not real a confident prediction. I just think she is a smart fighter and will look to get the fight to the ground early and often and that is what I see getting her hand raised. I also like that she is the underdog so that is why I am taking a small shot.
On DraftKings, Waterson is my preferred play. I like this game more for cash games, but I may take shots on both sides in GPPs. I do want some Waterson in GPPs because she is the grappler and one of my favorite underdogs of the week. However, I don’t see the winner of this fight scoring highly and she could get a 70-point win. If I have any KK, then it would likely be just 1 hedge lineup and she would need to strike at a high rate to pay it off. I do think Waterson ends up in my cash lineup though because even in a loss I think she can score 30-40 points and I am ok with that. I think KK is fine in cash as well if you want to go that route, but I would rather get favorites I like to win more than her. If you think she pieces up Waterson for 3-rounds, then she should be a good play in all formats with the striking pace she sets. I just think she spends time on her back and that is a big reason I am picking Waterson to pull off the upset.
Winner – Michelle Waterson via Split Decision
Michael Johnson $8,400 vs Josh Emmett $7,800
Michael Johnson
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: Combat Club
From: Florida
UFC Record: 11-9
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -110
Michael Johnson has kind of rejuvenated his career since moving down to 145. He has won back to back fights and is getting a chance to break into the top 10 with this matchup. Michael Johnson is a very speedy, powerful striker. He is a southpaw & has great lateral movement. He will keep distance with his straight-left hand. He will throw jabs to the head, body & has solid one-twos. He will attack the body with the straight-left hand as well. He will throw a nice right hook, straight-left hand. He has nice leg kicks. He has nice rear leg head kicks. He will stay in the pocket, rely on his speed & throw straights & hooks. When he connects, he can put fighter’s lights out. He is extremely fast and has fought much more technical so far at 145 lbs. He used to take more chances, stick around more in the pocket and look to land his left hook. He now is using much more lateral movement, staying long, hitting & not getting hit. He has largely dominated the stand up in his last two fights, by just being the one to out volume his opponents. He has always had big power even at 155 lbs & you can’t get over aggressive with a guy like Johnson. He has 8 career KO/TKO’s. His most recent KO win is of Dustin Poirier who is set to fight for the UFC title soon. He has a great chin & good defense. He is very tough to finish standing. He has only been finished one time by TKO in an absolute war against Justin Gaetchje.
Michael Johnson was a juco wrestler, but doesn’t look for wrestling in his fights, it has actually been his weakness in UFC fights. He was able to get a nice double leg in his last match late in round 3. He controlled him on the mat & sealed the round. I don’t see him wrestling at all in this fight. His lateral movement & hand speed make it hard for fighters to get inside on him. Even when he fought Khabib, he was able to land some shots & trouble him with his footwork early on in the fight. He has been taken down and dominated by Paul Sass, Myles Jury, Reza Madadi, Khabib Nurmagamedov, & Darren Elkins, and the path to victory against MJ is still to try to grind him out. He tends to not have much off his back & doesn’t have great get-ups. He will give his back to stand up & his rear naked choke defense is questionable. He got finished by Rear naked choke by Darren Elkins & almost finished by Andre Fili. He has been submitted 4 times in the UFC, and 8 times overall. He has just 3 career submissions & 0 in his 20 fight UFC career. Johnson has faced the much higher level of opposition, and holds some marquee wins over big names. He has beaten fighters such as Tony Ferguson, Joe Lauzon, Dustin Poirier, and a fighter in the main event, Edson Barboza. Johnson is going to want to keep the same game plan he’s had in his last two fights, use his hand speed & lateral movement to pot shot and out volume his opponent. He needs to attack with the jabs and straight-lefts to the body, head, and keep the volume high. He is going to be the faster fighter here, and if he can keep it standing and not get clipped with a big shot he should win. He needs to be ready to sprawl as well.
Josh Emmett
Age: 34
Height: 5’8
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Team Alpha Male
From: California
UFC Record: 4-2
Fight Matrix: 15
Last Fought: 1 Year 1 Month
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -110
Josh Emmett is returning from a long layoff. He was forced to take over a year off after the injuries he sustained in the Jeremy Stephens fight. He had multiple orbital & face fractures and was forced into emergency surgery. It was an absolutely brutal knockout, and we have to see if he ever will be the same. He is training out of Team Alpha Male, so they will know what Johnson wants to do, having Fili just fought him. TAM has been struggling majorly lately and need a win. Emmett is also a 155er & a big muscular dude. Emmett is an explosive fighter with big knockout power. He is fairly light on his feet & his movement isn’t bad. He can slip & rip in the pocket fairly well. He doesn’t use a lot of set ups & his striking revolves mainly on his overhand & straight-right. He uses a lot of big movements to close the distance. He will throw a one-two both to the body & head to an overhand right. He will throw a right hook to the body to an overhand right to the head. He will throw occasional leg & body kicks. He will throw switch kicks & rear leg round kicks to the head. He likes to throw flying knees & jumping kicks. He is fast himself & if you stay inside with him, he can close the distance quickly with powerful combinations. He is better when opponents walk him down & he can move & explode into shots. He landed a brutal left hook knockout against Ricardo Lamas, and dropped Jeremy Stephens with a right hook, if you stay in the danger zone with him, he can put you out. He doesn’t have the fastest feet, and when he goes first he can be very obvious. He can struggle to change up his game & deal with movement. Emmett has 4 KO/TKO’s, and has only been finished once, in his last fight.
Josh Emmett is a very physically, strong guy. He is a decent wrestler, although we have seen little of it in the UFC. He showed he can get double leg takedowns vs Scott Holtzman but could not hold position very well and even got swept a couple of times. I could see him trying to come into this fight with a game plan of taking down Johnson, but it’s hard to say that because he’s never done it. He is solid off his back, attacking and getting back up. I don’t see him having to deal with defending any grappling exchanges here. He has good cardio and pushes a pace at the end of the fight. He isn’t a big submission fighter & I haven’t seen much of him on top. He has two career submissions. Emmett is going to need to land a big shot to win this fight. I don’t have faith he will wrestle, and I think Johnson is the better striker. I think Emmett needs to use his left hand more to the body & not be so overhand right happy. He needs to try to back MJ towards the cage & land a finishing shot.
Emmett is coming off a year long layoff after being brutally knocked out in his last fight. I always get nervous with guys chins after they take a bad knockout like that and the chin isn’t something you can work on for your next fight. That could turn into an ongoing issue for him and maybe we see Johnson get a knockout here. I am going to just go off what I have seen though and not question things I don’t know the answers to. However, from what I have seen, I do still favor Johnson here. I just think he gets it done by a decision. I think Johnson will be the fighter throwing more strikes and having a slight edge on the feet, and I do think he stuffs takedowns as well. I think Emmett’s best path to victory is mixing in takedowns and if he can land them, he can win the decision. I just think Johnson is too well-rounded and experienced here for Emmett and I like that the betting line is basically even. It is a very close fight, and I wouldn’t put big money on this fight, but I like Michael Johnson for 1u at his -110 betting line. I think this will be a close 29-28 fight, but I think Johnson wins by landing more strikes and stuffing Emmett’s takedown attempts. I wouldn’t be shocked if he got a knockout either, but I will officially pick him via decision.
I like the mid-range a good bit this week, so I am sure I will land on this fight more than I would like to. I think the winner could score 65-75 in a decision win and I wouldn’t care for that. However, both guys could get KO’d and I like the ceilings that come with it. For cash, I would say its MJ or pass. It is hard to trust Emmett after his last KO and the injuries he had. That is also another reason to like MJ for GPPs. Maybe that KO carries over and he is put out easily this time. Or maybe his confidence is shot, and he is too tentative and MJ smokes him in a striking match. There are just too many unknowns here and that is why I will probably just stick to GPPs with MJ being the guy I roster more. Emmett does have big power and could put MJ away, or take him down multiple times, so I want some shots at him as well. I will be targeting this range quite a bit and I will probably save this for one of the last fights in my lineup and use whoever fits. If you are only making 3-5 lineups I would say you need to pick a side or fade it, but I will likely be overweight on MJ and under on Emmett.
Winner – Michael Johnson via Unanimous Decision
Jack Hermansson $8,300 vs David Branch $7,900
Jack Hermansson
Age: 30
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: Frontline Academy
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 5-2
Fight Matrix: 19
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -130
Jack Hermansson is getting another step up in competition here. He has won back to back fights via finish & is getting a top 10 opponent in David Branch. Hermansson is a very solid prospect. He has great movement on the feet, and some of the best G&P in the division. Jack Hermansson is a big fighter for the division. He uses a lot of lateral movement, staying light on his feet in & out. He has a very nice jab. He will jab to the body as well. He has a very nice counter left hook. He will throw a nice left hook, straight-right hand. He has nice leg kicks. He likes to throw a lot of oblique kicks to the knees, and front teips to the body. He has nice round kicks to the body. He does hold his lead hand low & I feel he could get clipped with overhands or head kicks. He can also get hit with straight shots as he enters and backs up in straight lines when he’s hurt. He has 11 KO/TKO’s, and only been finished 1 time by strikes also by Thiago Santos.
Hermansson is a strong grappler with a crushing top game. He uses the movement on the feet to frustrate opponents get them over aggressive, and then duck under and get takedowns. He has great reactive double legs. He is also strong in the clinch and is able to muscle opponents to the ground. On top, he has a great top game. He has good guard passing and will quickly move to mount or the back where he will try to finish the fight. He has nasty ground & pound punches & elbows and will flatten opponents out in the back mount and not let his opponents out of the position. He has good top control, and he definitely is going to want to get on top of Branch. He has good takedown defense, but opponents are able to land reactive double legs if they can time his kicks. Off his back, he was quickly submitted by Cezar Ferreira, but then survived a super deep choke against Thales Leites. He looks to be improving with his Jiu-Jitsu defense and has a never say die attitude. He isn’t a big submission threat, but he did get a nice D’arce choke in his last match and has 4 career submissions. He has been submitted twice in his career. He needs to avoid being put on his back against a black belt like David Branch. Hermansson has good cardio as well and will stick to the game plan. I see Hermansson implementing the same game plan as usual, movement & kicks on the feet, until he can time a takedown & get on top. If he puts Branch in a bad position, we have seen Branch tap to strikes before.
David Branch
Age: 37
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 79.5”
Gym: Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
From: New York
UFC Record: 4-4
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +110
David Branch’s back is up against the wall here. He has lost 2 out of 3 fights, and at 37 years old I really could see the UFC letting him go with a loss. Branch is only 2-2 so far since returning to the UFC, and it hasn’t quite gone as planned for him. Branch is very underrated in my opinion and has a very good style to take decisions. He has a very nice jab, and good lateral footwork. He is very light on his feet. He has good kicks and will throw heavy body and head kicks. He will throw the occasional leg kick but doesn’t throw many. He will fake level changes and come over the top with hooks, overhands and has solid power if he connects clean. He finished Thiago Santos in the pocket & rocked Rockhold badly. He will fake the level change as well and come up and try to grab a single collar clinch, where he has nice uppercuts. He stays safe and doesn’t put himself in much danger on the feet, he rarely will do something stupid or divert from the game-plan. He has a good chin and has not taken much damage in his career. He has fought some heavy hitters, such as Anthony Rumble Johnson, Louis Taylor, Dustin Jacoby, and Teddy Holder, and not been finished and is durable. He has been finished twice by KO/TKO in his last 3 fights, and his chin may be deteriorating. He has power himself and has finished 6 fights via KO/TKO.
He is a great grappler and a long time Renzo Gracie Black Belt. He is very strong in the clinch positions and will close the distance, grab a single collar and then is able to dig under hooks, push opponents to the cage and control from there. He also has great timing on double and single leg takedowns. He is good at timing takedowns off the kicks of opponents, which I see him trying to do here. He likes to get in the clinch against the cage and land short knees and punches while grinding out the fight. I have heard him talk in interviews about fighting with more emphasis on finishing. He said previously he didn’t have the faith in his striking to let it go, but he has had a break through and no longer cares and wants to believe in himself and go for it, but with his job on the line here I could see him playing it safe. When he gets on top, he has good control, and is methodical with his passes while looking for submissions, but never sacrificing position. He has 7 submissions in his career. He has been submitted 1 time, but I would be shocked if he got submitted in this matchup, unless it’s due to strikes. He has a lot of experience and great cardio. He has been in many championship and five round fights. I see Branch using a lot of forward pressure to try to jam the kicks of Jack, and catch him with big straights & hooks, then time a takedown off the kicks of Hermansson. Hermansson is used to having the reach advantage & staying long behind his punches. Branch has an almost 80” reach & I feel his length and straight punches could give Hermansson issues.
Before I did any research on this fight I was thinking Branch should be favored and I would probably pick him to win. After research, I have changed my mind and I like Hermansson here. Unfortunately, the oddsmakers do too and he is the favorite. Both fighters are very well-rounded, but I think Hermansson is the guy who is going to control where this fight takes place. I think he has the better overall standup and he strikes at a much higher rate. If it stays standing I think he is going to have to get knocked out to lose. Branch also has a solid top game on the ground, but he has landed takedowns at a 32% accuracy and Hermansson defends them at 73%. Hermansson also has a solid top game as well and I think he is more likely to land takedowns here. To me, this is Hermansson’s fight to lose and the only way he does that is by getting knocked out or being put on his back for long periods of time. I will side with that not happening and I think Hermansson can finish with a knockout on the feet, a ground and pound KO, or win a decision. I will lean with him picking up a GNP TKO in the 2nd half of the fight.
Hermansson is my preferred play on DraftKings. I think he has a much easier path to pay off his salary in a win and I do like him to win. I think he is playable in all formats and I would be surprised if he didn’t get at least 10x in a win. I do like the mid-range this week though, so I will probably land on some Branch as well. I think the only way he wins is via KO or with a wrestling heavy game plan. I don’t care for his pace much in a decision, but he is the underdog, so we don’t really need 100-points from him. He could get there with the KO though. If I was making 10 lineups I would probably have about 4-5 Hermansson and 1-2 Branch. I think this is a good fight to target with the $9k range not looking so hot this week and I think the mid-range builds are what will win somebody $30k.
Winner – Jack Hermansson via 3rd round (T)KO
Edson Barboza $8,500 vs Justin Gaethje $7,700
Edson Barboza
Age: 33
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 75”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 14-6
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -135
Edson Barboza looked absolutely incredible in his last fight. He put on an absolute clinic & destroyed Dan Hooker. He is getting another fighter who will most likely be willing to strike with him, and Edson will most definitely oblige. Barboza is one of the most dangerous strikers in MMA history & has arguably the greatest highlight reel in the sport. He has knockouts with punches, kicks, spinning kicks, flying knees, he can knock you out with anything. Barboza is excellent at controlling distance & that will be the tale of this fight. If he can keep it at his range, he will win the fight. He has a very nice jab, and brutal low leg kicks. I anticipate he will use his leg kicks much more in this match to keep distance than his jab. He doesn’t want Gaethje to come over the top with hooks or overhands. He was able to destroy both legs of Dan Hooker in his last match. Barboza has a nice one-two, and a nasty left hook. He will throw a devastating counter left hook to the body or head & angle off. Due to the fact Gaethje has such a high guard, I envision Barboza having a game plan of a heavy body attack. Barboza has nasty switch kicks to the body as well, with no telegraph. He probably has the fastest kicks in MMA history. He will throw hard round kicks to the body & head. He has devastating spinning back kicks to the body & head. We have all seen his spinning heel kick knockout of Terry Etim. He is very good at catching kicks & returning with low kicks. He is always looking to set up one of these one shot finishes, and you cannot enter the same way against Barboza. He has nasty flying knees. The way to beat Barboza on the feet is through pressure. He is much better at using his boxing to counter, but it’s still the way to beat him. He tends to make mistakes when he gets pressured heavy & has broken in fights before. He will also become much more defensive & not throw as much. He has shown extreme toughness lately and survived brutal beatings. He was able to prove how dangerous he is even after being dominated for 3.5 rounds, almost finishing Kevin Lee in round 4 with a spinning heel kick. Barboza has 12 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes twice. He does seem to have a questionable chin if you can land clean on him.
Barboza moving to ATT after his fights with Khabib and Lee, IMO, has a lot to do with addressing his wrestling. He was dominated & could not stop the takedown or get-up off his back in those matches. Barboza actually has shown solid takedown defense outside of elite level takedown artists. In this fight with Gaetchje, I doubt he will have to defend any shots. He has very good hips & does a good job of staying up against the cage. The only two fighters who have dominated him on the mat in the UFC are Kevin Lee & Khabib. Barboza is a brown belt in Jiu-Jitsu, but I have never seen him attempt a submission. He will go for double legs at times & sometimes when he breaks he will shoot bad shots. He attempted takedowns against Kevin Lee & Khabib after being dominated in the grappling and had an ill-advised shot into a d’arce against Tony Ferguson. He has one submission & has been submitted twice himself. Barboza does tend to get tired & if this fight becomes a dog fight I think Gaetchje has more will. Barboza needs to try to use his counter boxing, leg & body kicks. He should attack the body heavily. Justin uses a very high guard & the body will be wide open. Eddie Alvarez was able to attack the body & really break Justin down before catching him with the KO knee. Barboza needs to break down Gaetchje early with leg kicks, body shots, and then knock him out in rounds three four or five.
Justin Gaethje
Age: 30
Height: 5’11
Weight: 155
Reach: 71”
Gym: Genesis Training Center
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 2-2
Fight Matrix: 11
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +115
Justin Gaethje is a nightmare. He is a brawler & risks his own health to take opponents out. He is coming off a huge bounce back win. He had a brutal first round knockout of James Vick, in a grudge match. He has been asking for this Edson Barboza fight for years & he is finally getting his wish. Gaethje comes forward with a high guard and doesn’t back up. He takes shots to return his own & is all about pressure pace & breaking opponents. Gaethje does a great job of chopping low kicks off the jabs of opponents, but in this fight I’m really not sure if Barboza will allow him to do that. Gaethje is always trying to just stick in the pocket & counter with his overhand right or his left hook. He will attack the body with straight punches & hooks, and then come over the top with shots. He has huge power & his willingness to take a shot to return with power is why he catches a lot of opponents. Gaethje isn’t the greatest athlete & can struggle to get inside at times. He can throw sloppy right hands to try to get into the pocket & he can’t do that against Barboza. He needs to use his jab to get inside or walk in with his hands up. His defense is terrible. He gets hit with over 10 strikes per minute & the damage he takes is absurd. He does do a solid job of rolling with shots & blocking them with his arms, taking some power off. Gaethje has 16 KO/TKO’s in 19 wins & has been finished by KO/TKO in his two losses.
Justin Gaethje is a former All-American college wrestler, but wrestling is the farthest thing from his mind in fights. He has attempted a couple takedowns in the UFC, when he was badly hurt, but it’s not something you really have to worry about as a Gaethje opponent. In the clinch, he is nasty. He will get the single collar clinch & attack with nasty right hooks & right uppercuts to the head. He will attack with the right hand to the body as well. He does a good job of framing with his left hand to give himself more extension & power on his shots. He will also look for nasty knees & elbows in the clinch. This is where he needs to beat up Barboza at and try to tax on his gas tank. He has in the past done a good job of using a takedown attempt to create openings for shots. Against Luis Palomino, he got in a double leg, disengaged, and immediately threw an uppercut that dropped Palomino. He has good takedown defense himself. Gaethje is going to have to get inside, back Edson up & come over the top with hooks & overhands. I think he should look to get into that single collar clinch, throw Edson around a bit and land those right hands. Gaethje is going to most likely be the fresher fighter in the later rounds, but it depends on how much damage he has taken. For Gaethje to win he has to back Edson up.
This is an AWESOME fight! Even if you don’t like MMA, you should tune into this fight on ESPN. These are two of the best strikers in the world and Gaethje has never been in a boring fight. This is going to be an exciting fight for as long as it lasts and if you do already like MMA this is the fight you use to get your friends to like the sport. The outcome I feel best about is this fight not going the distance. The line on that is -555 though so that is too high for me. You can throw that into parlay’s if you want, but not sure if I will be making a play there or not. Barboza is the better technical striker of the two and he has the scariest kicks I have ever seen. He has finished fights with kicks to the legs, body, and head. Both guys highlight reels are amazing really. Gaethje also throw good kicks and I would say these are the two best leg kickers in the division. Barboza is going to want to keep this fight at range and use more of a kicking game than a boxing game. Gaethje is going to want the opposite. He is going to want to turn this fight into a war and not let Barboza get his kicks off. The best outcome for Gaethje is to get Barboza’s back against the fence and just tee off on him. With the crazy pace he sets in fights I do expect to see this happen at times. Barboza is going to need to find space and KO him to get the win. I don’t see him lasting at Gaethje’s pace and if he is moving backwards then his kicks won’t be much help. Gaethje is very hittable though and he absorbs a crazy amount of damage in all his fights. Barboza is not the guy you want to be taking hard shots from. I think a flying knee KO is in play here from Barboza as well because if he is forced to the fence then that would be his best option, in my opinion. I don’t see him being Gaethje in a brawl. I don’t have a real good lean on this fight, but I do think the line should be flipped with Gaethje being the small favorite. For that reason, I will pick the underdog here and I think he would get a knockout in the first 4 rounds if he is to win. Either way, this is a fight you do not want to miss!
This is the best fight on the card from a watching and DK perspective. This is a 100% all-in fight and if you are making just 1 lineup then you need to have this fight in there even if you’re not confident in your prediction. I like Gaethje as my favorite underdog play of the week and I will likely go 70/30% in favor of him. I would be shocked if the winner of this fight didn’t score over 100-points and I fully expect them to be on the winning lineup. This is an easy stack in cash for me and I would highly suggest you do the same thing. We could get 160 total points in this fight and we lock in the winner with the stack. That is how I will be starting my cash lineup and I will figure the rest out from there. I will also have this fight in every GPP lineup I make, and I will be on the edge of my seat for as long as it lasts.
Winner – Justin Gaethje via 3rd round (T)KO
Thanks again for purchasing this breakdown and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t takedown a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://MMAoddsbreaker.com/premium-picks/
- Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100.
- I am 63-41 for +210.99u (+$21,099+) since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets.
