BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+6 Location – Nashville, Tennessee
Thanks for purchasing my UFC Fight Night 148 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in London on ESPN+. DraftKings has some solid contests considering this is a free card and I look forward to chasing the GPPs. The main GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my first seat into it a couple of weeks ago and I will try to get my 2nd seat this week if possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and throw a handful of entries at that $25k prize, and then I will probably take a couple of shots at the Q. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Eric Shelton $8,700 vs Jordan Espinosa $7,500
Eric Shelton
Age: 28
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: American Top Team
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: 30
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: -170
Eric Shelton is coming off the best win of his career. It looks like his move to ATT paid off, and he is there once again for this camp. Shelton is a solid striker. He has a good jab, and a solid straight-right hand. He likes to double up with the jab and then throw a right hook. He has a good left hook, straight-right hand combination. He will throw an overhand right, straight-left combo. He has a nice uppercut. He has very good hand speed & throws in combination well. He likes to pressure and stalk his opponents to the cage. He can get stuck just walking down his opponent and staring at them. He isn’t a high output striker, and even when he seems to have a significant striking advantage he won’t let go enough. He just tries to pressure and pull fighters into his power, but if they won’t throw he doesn’t either. He has good defense, nice footwork, and a high guard. He will rarely throw kicks and is predominantly a boxer. He does throw the occasional head kick. He doesn’t have huge power, and only has two TKO’s in his career. He has a good chin and has never been finished.
Shelton is a strong grappler as well. He is a good wrestler, and very explosive with his double and single leg shots. His shots come very fast, and he does a good job of timing them when fighters are off balance. He is good in the clinch and has strong body locks. On top, he has good elbows & has good control. He has very good passing ability. He does a good job of turking the legs & trying to move to mount. He likes to get to the back and he has a good rear naked choke. He does a good job of when opponents do scramble back to their feet, returning them to the mat quickly. He can be taken down himself and was taken down 5 times vs Alex Perez. Shelton is hard to hold down and does a good job of getting back up to his feet, especially against the cage. He isn’t dangerous off his back with submissions, but he does have some decent sweeps. He has 5 submissions himself and has never been submitted in his career. Shelton is always in close fights, he has lost 4 split decisions, and won one his last time out. He is 4-5 in decisions in his career. I think he is the better striker in this fight. I see him being able to land clean, straight punches & have a major boxing advantage. I think he will be able to match the speed & athleticism of Espinosa & can cause him issues. I think he can even get potential takedowns himself, but not sure if he needs to. I think if he can use his lateral movement & strikes to land straight punches & leg kicks if Espinosa closes the distance. I can definitely see him landing clean & stunning Espinosa.
Jordan Espinosa
Age: 29
Height: 5’7
Weight: 125
Reach: 69.5”
Gym: Lutrell’s MMA
From: New Mexico
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +150
Jordan Espinosa will be making his UFC debut, coming off a win on the DWCS. He has won 4 consecutive fights. Espinosa is a very athletic, explosive fighter. He is light on his feet & likes to use lateral movement, and then blitz in with shots. He holds his hands low & can be clipped entering the pocket. He will throw nice leg kicks. He has nice straight & overhand rights. He will throw one-twos. He will throw straight-right hands to the body. He does have a nice check left hook going backwards & dropped his last opponent with it. He will throw nice body & head kicks. His head kicks come very fast, he had a nice head kick knockout of Nick Urso on the DWCS. He landed a one-two head kick combination in his last fight that dropped his opponent. He was able to land a straight-right hand, that finished his opponent in the last 10 seconds of that fight. When he can’t get the fight to the mat and is being out struck he can panic a bit. He can start to shoot takedowns from too far outside, & flop to his back. He doesn’t have much boxing at all & really is trying to be all the way out until he can enter with a long punch, kick or takedown. He doesn’t throw in combination very often. He has two career KO/TKO’s & has never been finished with strikes.
Jordan Espinosa is a former college wrestler, with some Jiu-Jitsu skills. He doesn’t tend to work in the clinch much, but he has nasty knees to the body. He is explosive & has good double leg takedowns. He will dig an underhook and land a trip takedown or drop down for a double. He will shoot single legs as well. On top, he has decent ground & pound elbows, but is mainly looking for submissions. He has very good guard passes & will athletically jump from guard to side control. He is very fast in the scrambles & floats well on top as opponents move on bottom. He can get taken down himself, but overall, he has good takedown defense. He can be pushed up & controlled against the cage. Off his back he does a good job of scrambling & returning to his feet. He is always looking to get to the D’arce position & that is his go to submission. He is very good at jumping on D’arces after he hurts an opponent. He has 5 career D’arces & 7 submissions overall. He has been submitted twice, but they were early in his career. He doesn’t have the best record & has some questionable losses. He does have fairly good cardio, and proved he carried his power late into the fight in his last match. I think that Espinosa needs to get this fight to the ground. He does have a chance to clip & hurt Shelton standing, but I feel Shelton is the better striker. If he can use a similar game plan to the one of Alex Perez & win a grappling heavy decision I could see him executing that. Perez has a similar D’arce/front choke game, but I really think it will be tough to submit Shelton.
This should be a fun first fight of the night. Espinosa is making his official UFC debut here and I was pretty impressed with what I saw from him. He is a solid finisher on the ground and drops a lot of guys on the feet as well. He is 2-0 on Dana White’s Tuesday night contender series and now he gets the step up to the big show. He does have a tough first test with Shelton, but I think he is a live dog here. Shelton has 5 UFC fights and they have all been to decision, 3 of them being split decisions. He has only won 2 of those 5 fights and one of those wins was a split. I feel like he should be better than he has shown but he seems to fight down to his opponent’s level and that is what is making these fights close. I think Espinosa would be the more likely fighter to get a finish in this fight, but I think if it goes all 3-rounds then I would favor Shelton to get his hand raised. I would say this is a dog or pass fight on the betting line, but I will pick Shelton to pick up another decision win in this match.
On DraftKings, I like this fight less than I do most curtain jerkers, but Espinosa would be my preferred play of the two. I do think he is a live dog here and I think he has the better chance of getting an early finish. I also think he has a decent floor because I think if Shelton wins then it probably goes all 3 rounds. However, if he wins then he will have an easier time getting 10x or more his salary than Shelton will at $8.7k. I think he is in play in all formats, but I am picking him to lose, so I won’t have a ton of him. I don’t have a lot of interest in Shelton and I will probably need over 20 lineups before I throw him into my player pool. I am not sure how many lineups I will make this week, so I may just full fade him if I don’t go to heavy on this card.
Winner – Eric Shelton via Split Decision
Chris Guiterrez $8,300 vs Ryan MacDonald $7,900
Chris Gutierrez
Age: 27
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 67”
Gym: Chop Shop MMA
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 81
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -225
Chris Gutierrez is returning after a spirited effort in his UFC debut. He was arguably winning the fight against Raoni Barcelos before being cut, which turned the tides & he ultimately lost via rear naked choke. He will be taking on the debuting Ryan MacDonald. Chris Gutierrez is another fighter coming out of the Factory X gym. He looked good in his UFC debut. He was up against, facing a high-level fighter & was able to push him. Gutierrez is a good striker. He has very good defensive movement & likes to fight on the counter. He has nice round & oblique kicks to the legs. He will throw nice check left hooks, & one-twos. He is good at throwing the left hook moving backwards. He will throw nice front kicks to the body. He will blitz forward with straight punches to close the distance. He has a nice front leg round kick to the head. He has a very nice spinning back fist. He will throw nice spinning back kicks to the body & head. Gutierrez is very fast & is always feinting. He keeps fighters off balance & is very hard to read on the feet. He can get backed to the cage & allows opponents to control the center at times. He has 6 career KO/TKO’s & good durability never being finished by strikes.
Gutierrez is an average grappler. He is a questionable defensive wrestler and doesn’t wrestle offensively. He is solid in the clinch. He will look for hard knees to the body. He can be taken down, but he has solid get-ups. He has been out grappled to losses vs fighters such as Timur Valiev & Jerrod Sanders. He also has a victory over Timur Valiev. He will use butterfly hooks, or even give his back & scramble to his feet. He does have nice armbars & triangles. He is able to throw up very quick armbars and uses submissions to scramble back to his feet. He will roll for leg locks. He has one career submission via rear naked choke. He has been submitted one time. Gutiérrez has fought the much better competition & already has the UFC experience. I see Gutierrez trying to keep the fight on the feet. He should look to throw longer combinations & catch MacDonald as he moves backwards. If MacDonald drops his hands and leans back, I think ending combos with a head kick could pay dividends for him. I also feel he can piece up the lead leg MacDonald.
Ryan MacDonald
Age: 26
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: N/A
Gym: Disorderly Conduct
From: Nebraska
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 170
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W10
Betting Odds: +185
MacDonald is fighting out of Disorderly Conduct, which is the former camp of Anthony Smith. He is taking this fight on about 2 weeks’ notice due to Martin Day pulling out. Ryan MacDonald seems fairly well-rounded. He has a long karate stance, but he stands flat footed. He will throw solid leg kicks & front kicks to the body. He has a decent jab & solid one-two. He will look for lead left hooks & blitz’s in with a quick straight-right hand. He will throw a counter left hook moving backwards. He will throw an overhand right, right hook combination. He will switch stances, side step & throw left hooks or straight-right hands from different angles. He will throw lead leg hook kicks to the body & head. He will throw front & oblique kicks to the legs. He has good head kicks. He will throw a straight-right to a head kick combo. He has solid spinning back kicks to the body & head. He will throw back elbows and can get creative with his striking. He tends to do a lot of peppering with his shots, especially in close range. He will throw quick, fast, straight punches & uppercuts, but seems like he is scared to fully commit to throwing in the pocket. He stands very heavy on his lead leg & leaves it there to be kicked. He leans back & drops his hands at times to defend strikes & I have seen him almost knocked out on the regional scene with overhands. He doesn’t have much power & only has 2 career KO/TKO’s. He has never been finished as a pro but was finished twice by strikes in his extensive amateur career. He has had 20 fights all together and is experienced.
MacDonald will look to grapple. He has nice knees to the body & head in the clinch. He will look for takedowns & has fairly good singles and doubles. On top, he does have decent G&P. He will advance position & likes to get to mount or the back. He will look for armbars & rear naked chokes from the back but doesn’t seem to have great BJJ. He can be shucked off & end up on his back. He does have a few RNC’s. He doesn’t seem very good off his back & I’ve seen him threatened with guillotines and get mounted. He is long & will attack with his guard with elbows, triangles, and armbars. He has 3 submissions in his career & won his last fight via guillotine. He is riding a 3-fight finish streak and has good momentum. He has not fought very good competition & this is a big step up for him. I see him trying to use his strikes to set up takedowns. I feel if he can’t get this fight to the mat, unless he can just land a nice shot he will have a rough night. If he can get the fight to the ground, he needs to try to place emphasis on control over submission.
The line on this fight has completely flipped. Macdonald opened at -165 and is now all the way down to +155. I think the people who got their bets in early did get a good line on Gutierrez, but I don’t see much value in him anymore. Gutierrez should be the better fighter on the feet, but Macdonald should look to get this fight to the ground. If this fight does stay standing, then I think Gutierrez is going to either knock him out or get a decision win. If Macdonald can get the fight to the ground, then I think he can get a submission or use the takedowns to help him get the decision win. I am not super impressed with either of these guys, so I wouldn’t want to trust them with my money on this current line. But, I will lean with the favorite in this one and I wish I got him at the + money line he opened at.
This is likely one of the chalkiest picks of the card with the odds value we have, but Gutierrez is my preferred play. I think the line value pretty much makes him a lock in cash games and if you want to fade him then you should do that in GPPs. I am not sure how I will attack him in GPPs yet with the expected chalk, but I am leaning on being overweight. I am picking him to win via finish and the odds value is almost too good to pass up on. I think if you are just making a few lineups then the best way to go would be all-in, or all-out (for GPPs). The only reason I would be investing in MacDonald is because he will be very low owned with the negative value and if he does win then he will kill off a bunch of the field and if he finishes then he could win somebody the $25k. However, he is a GPP only play and purely for ownership reasons. If you want to fade him then I have no issue with that.
Winner – Chris Gutierrez via 3rd round (T)KO
Angela Hill $8,200 vs Randa Markos $8,000
Angela Hill
Age: 31
Height: 5’3”
Weight: 115
Reach: 64.5”
Gym: Alliance MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 3-5
Fight Matrix: 16
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -150
This is a battle of two fighters who desperately need a win. It is a striker vs grappler matchup. Angela Hill has lost two of three fights & hasn’t been able to get a win streak going yet in her UFC career. Randa Markos is coming off a draw & has one win in her last 4 matches. Angela Hill is a solid striker & I actually felt she deserved to win her last fight vs Cortney Casey. Angela Hill is a very quick and nimble striker. She has good movement on the outside, using false start stutter step movements to throw off her blitzes and mixes it in with a lot of kicks and teips to the body and high kicks as well. She has great leg kicks off her blitzes and usually that is the shot she finishes with after she throws her right hand. She has a very nice jab & good right hook. She will throw an uppercut, right hook combo. She will attack the body with punches & kicks. She is great at mixing it up & targeting all areas. She will throw a left hook to leg kick combination. She will fake the left hook & throw a leg kick. She has a great overhand right and solid timing able to catch opponents coming in with it. She is good at moving her head in the pocket and rolling with shots to lessen the impact. She will slip & return with nice punching combinations. She has nice head kicks & hard round kicks to the body. She is very good early, she is extremely fast and keeps a heavy volume of leg kicks and blitz attacks. Her in and out movement is very good. She is always pressing the fight & going forward. She throws a ton of volume & fights at a very fast pace. She can get caught against cage and unloaded on but has a solid chin and does a good job of tying up and reversing her position off the cage. She has some variety in her shots, throwing a nice superman punch and step in elbows. Hill does hit hard, and she rocked Cortney Casey a few times in her last fight. She has 3 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes. She is very durable, she is one of the few fighters who has exchanged with Jessica Andrade & lived to talk about it.
Angela Hill is improving as a grappler and is much better than earlier in her UFC career. She has good technique in the clinch. She has good head positioning, will dig an underhook & land nice knees to the body. She will also throw uppercuts & overhand rights. She will exit the clinch with hard elbows. She has improved her wrestling, but her takedown defense still isn’t great. She was taken down by Cortney Casey, but immediately attacked with an armbar & scrambled to top position. That was pretty impressive, because Casey is a brown belt. When she was taken down by a black belt in Livia Souza, she was able to keep her in her guard & get multiple referee stand ups. She has proved she can survive on the ground with good BJJ players. She was able to earn top position, against both Maryna Moroz & Ashley Yoder, and stayed safe in their guards. She even attempted a single leg in her fight with Maryna Moroz, but I highly doubt she shoots here. She will have to have her grappling even up another notch in this match. She needs to be able to have not only her takedown defense on point, but her get-ups. She has been submitted two times early in her career & does not have any submissions. Hill needs to go forward, put the pressure on Randa & force her backwards. She needs to stay long, move in & out, land her quick punches, leg & body kicks. She needs to feint & fake to draw out the strikes & wrestling shots of Markos, get the reads and then counter. I feel if she can deny some early takedowns or scramble back to her feet, she could break Markos with her pressure. Markos holds her hands down & if Hill can get the jab going, I expect her to be able to dictate distance much better. I do expect her to get put on her back at some point. She definitely needs to keep the volume high & win the striking convincingly in order to outweigh some likely Markos takedowns.
Randa Markos
Age: 33
Height: 5’4”
Weight: 115
Reach: 63.5”
Gym: Tristar Gym
From: Canada
UFC Record: 4-5-1
Fight Matrix: 18
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: 1 Draw
Betting Odds: +130
Randa Markos is a solid pro. She is a tenacious fighter with very good cardio and keeps a steady work rate throughout the fight. She has her lead hand down, extended & is heavy on her lead leg. She uses her front hand to gauge distance and tries to stay loose. She uses a lot of lateral movement, but she doesn’t really set anything up off it, she usually just comes forward in straight lines. She will throw jabs, and double jabs. She will throw straight punches & hooks to close the distance. She will throw overhand rights & left hooks to try to catch opponents coming in. When she is getting pushed back & pressured, she doesn’t do much of anything. She is extremely low output & if she hangs around on the outside with Hill, she won’t win. She will bite down at times & throw one-twos or walk through shots to get inside, but not often enough. Markos doesn’t have power & she has had 9 decisions in 10 UFC fights. She has 0 KO/TKO’s & has never been finished by strikes.
Randa Markos is a grinder. She is good in the clinch or going for takedowns. She will work in the clinch against the cage and has no problem grinding you out there, but she lacks physicality at times and can get taken down herself or controlled against the cage. She will throw overhand rights into body locks. She will try to attack with hooks, back her opponents to the cage & dig an underhook. She will use nice snatch singles to get opponents to the cage. She has good body locks and doubles and will go for hip tosses. On top, she does a good job of getting in dominant positions and landing decent G&P. She will turk the legs & try to move directly into mount. She was able to take mount in her last match in round one & land some nice G&P. She also has nice back takes using the double wrist lock. Off her back she actually isn’t bad, she does a good job of scrambling and has good dexterity in her legs and can take the back in odd positions. She does a good job of when she wins a scramble, immediately getting in a dominant position and going to work and not letting you rest. She isn’t a huge submission threat, but she has 4 career submissions. She has been submitted twice herself. Markos has to get inside, close the distance & get the fight to the ground. If she can get in on her single leg & then push her to the cage. She is good at getting in on the legs quickly when she backs her opponents against the cage. If she can take Hill down, she has to have top control. She can’t allow Hill to win clinch exchanges against the cage or wrestling exchanges to win. If she can get on top of Hill, she should look to get a rear naked choke, because Hill has been submitted twice by RNC.
Both these fighters were on The Ultimate Fighter season 20 together and each have had mixed results in their UFC careers. Markos is 4-5-1 in the UFC and Hill is 6-5. Hill is the much better striker and she strikes at a much higher pace. She has submissions in her game as well, but she will want to keep this fight standing. Markos is going to want to look for takedowns here for her to have a shot. I don’t expect either fighter to get a finish, so it should come down to whether or not Markos can get the takedowns, and if she can get them consistently. I think Hill should win the majority of the time this fight is on the feet and I think it will be pretty clear. For Markos to win, I think she will need at least 1-2 takedowns in 2 of the 3 rounds. It is possible, but I am going to pick Hill to stuff a lot of the takedowns or be able to get back to her feet and get a win from the judges.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Hill. She throws at a high enough pace where she can pay off $8.2k in a decision win with just significant strike points. I think she is the better striker and she is much faster as well. She also has submission ability off her back, so I don’t think Randa will have an easy time if she gets her down. I think Randa is in play as well because she will be the fighter looking for takedowns and if she can get them then she can win this fight. I don’t see Markos having 100-point upside even with a clear 30-27 win, but I think Hill does. I do think this fight goes all 3 rounds so I think it is playable on both sides for cash as well. Again, my preferred play there is Hill as well. But if you are picking Markos then I wouldn’t try to talk you onto Hill. With 20 lineups I would probably have 4-5 Hill and maybe 1-2 Markos. It isn’t a fight I will be heavy on, but I don’t hate taking shots on either side.
Winner – Angela Hill via Unanimous Decision
Alexis Davis $8,600 vs Jennifer Maia $7,600
Alexis Davis
Age: 34
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: CSA MMA
From: Canada
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: 8
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -140
Alexis Davis is a wild one, who has quite the resume in MMA. She has beaten the likes of Valerie Letourneau, Amanda Nunes, Tonya Evinger(x2), Liz Carmouche(x2),Jessica Eye, Sarah Kaufman, and Cindy Dandois. Davis is a pressure fighter who wants to use her strikes to get inside & force grappling exchanges. Her hands aren’t great, but she will try to land the jab and straight-right hand. She will throw overhand right leads. She will throw straight-right hands to the body to a left hook to the head combination. She tends to do a lot of reaching with her punches, instead of cutting opponents off & can be countered due to that. She has good kicks from the outside to the legs and body, but she is a bit stiff. Davis is slow and plodding and doesn’t have great striking defense. She doesn’t move her head and is there to hit. She is a dog and likes getting hit and will take shots and go to war. She has a great chin. She has 2 KO/TKO’s in her career & doesn’t have great power. She is very tough, but extremely hittable & has been KO/TKO’d 3 times.
Davis is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu & is a very strong grappler. She will try to get upper body clinches and get it to the fence and work with knees. She has good control in the clinch with double underhooks. Davis will not shoot for takedowns much, but she is very good at catching kicks and will take you down that way. She has a good ground game and does a good job of getting to the mount and landing shots. She sometimes can get caught in the guard and be inactive on top, and I actually think she is better off her back. She will use a high guard, land hard elbows to the head, and then try to get armbars or triangles. She does a good job of getting the triangle position and sweeping to full mount. She slows down as the fight goes on but knows how to push through. She is good at surviving when she’s hurt and is tough to put away. She has 7 submissions & has been submitted only one time. She has a ton of experience & is a tough out for anyone. She needs to keep the pressure, try to negate the kicking game of Maia by catching them, and throw volume. She has to take advantage of any grappling situations she can. If she can get it to the ground whether she’s on her back or on top I feel she should do it. I think she could potentially lock up a submission, especially from her guard if Maia isn’t careful.
Jennifer Maia
Age: 30
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 64”
Gym: Chute Boxe
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-1
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +120
Maia is a come forward striker, who has that heavy Muay Thai Chute Boxe style. She has an active jab. She will throw a one-two combination, or a jab overhand right combination. She will throw a one-two to a left hook combination. She will mix uppercuts into close range. She is good at slipping punches & countering, usually with her straight or overhand right. She will throw occasional leg & body kicks. She will attack the body with nice jabs & right hooks. She doesn’t throw a lot of variation & really her right hand is her bread & butter. She is at her best when she finds her range, goes forward & lets her right hand go. She can land her straight or overhand right over & over and it’s very accurate. When she’s able to stun fighters, she will swarm with combinations, but overall, she doesn’t throw a ton of volume. She is flat footed & doesn’t move her head much. She can get hit clean with shots & Carmouche was continuously able to get in land some punches & get the fight to the ground. I actually think her striking looked much better against Carmouche than other fights. When she goes forward & gains confidence, she will throw out more volume. She tends to start slow & pick up as fights go on. I actually feel that she would have lost her last 3 fights, had they been 3 round fights, but two of them she took in rounds 4 and 5. She doesn’t have much power & only has 3 KO/TKO’s in her career. She has been knocked out only one time & is a tough girl. I do feel her chin isn’t the greatest, she was rocked by a jab by Aga Niedzweidz in a recent Invicta fight.
Maia is a solid grappler, although she was grinded out in her most recent fight against Liz Carmouche. She has good clinch control & will land hard knees to the legs & body. She digs nice double underhooks & will slow the pace of the fight by controlling fighters against the cage. She was able to do that against Liz Carmouche in round one, which is very impressive because Carmouche might be the strongest fighter in the division. She isn’t a wrestler, but she has good takedown defense. She has a strong sprawl and will use it to take top position herself. When she does get taken down, she has good get-ups. She will attack in her guard with armbars. She was able to shake Roxanne Moddafari off her back a couple times & take top position. In top position, she isn’t super dangerous with ground & pound. She has 5 career submissions. She has only been submitted one time & is someone who will go to sleep rather than tap. Jennifer Maia is going to want to try to stay long, use her straight punches & I also feel she should use cage control. She needs to push Davis against the cage, land some short knees to the legs, body, and zap some of the energy of Davis and then open up more with her striking. She gets stronger as the fight continues & Davis slows down, so I imagine she has a good chance to win round 3.
Davis is a fighter who always brings the fight to her opponent and it makes most of her fights pretty fun to watch. She is well-rounded, and she fights at a good pace which helps her when fights hit the scorecards. Maia is well-rounded as well and was the champion over in Invicta. I think she is going to want to keep the fight on the outside and not give Davis the brawl she wants. She could also control this fight against the cage and make it more of a boring fight to help her get the judges’ nod. Or, she could look for takedowns and try to win with top control. Davis is solid on the ground as well though, so I don’t see a finish coming from either fighter, and I think Davis can keep this fight standing where she should have the edge if she can get inside. Maia is better at range, but Davis is willing to eat punches to give them out, so I don’t think she will let Maia throw kicks from the outside. I expect Davis to make this a dirty fight and brawl her way to a decision win.
On DraftKings, I have zero interest in this fight. I think it is playable on both sides for cash because they both have decent floors, but I really don’t want to invest in either fighter. I would say my preferred play is Maia because she is a live dog, but I don’t see me having any exposure to her. I don’t even think the winner of this fight gets more than 10x their salary. This will be a full fade fight for me and I would probably need more than 50 lineups before I used either in a GPP.
Winner – Alexis Davis via Unanimous Decision.
Marlon Vera $8,400 vs Frankie Saenz $7,800
Marlon Vera
Age: 26
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 70.5”
Gym: Team Oyama
From: Ecuador
UFC Record: 6-4
Fight Matrix: 51
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -160
Marlon Chito Vera is back and has been very entertaining lately. He has finished back to back fights, both in which he had to dig deep. Frankie Saenz has won back to back fights as well, and the winner of this matchup will most likely get a top 15 opponent next. Saenz is 38 years old & this is definitely a huge fight for him. With his age a loss would definitely be a massive setback. Vera is a decent striker. He will switch stances & throws a lot of kicks. He throws hard, low leg kicks. He has a good jab, straight-left hand from southpaw. He throws hard round & front kicks to the body from southpaw. He will also throw sidekicks to the body & hard, round kicks to the head. He will throw oblique kicks to the knees with both legs. He likes to throw jab, left hooks from orthodox, and will throw a lot of lead left hooks & uppercuts. He will throw a jab, right hook to a body kick combination. His straight-left hand is accurate and has pop. He has started slowly in his last two matches but came into round 2 reinvigorated. He seems to have a new kill or be killed mindset and is super aggressive. He will start to walk down opponents, really put on the volume and welcome a war. He will throw a lot of push kicks to try to get his opponents moving backwards & will attack with flying knees when they’re near the cage. He finished Wuliji Buren with a nasty left hook to the body. He isn’t the most athletic fighter and relies a lot on his chin and toughness. He will walk down opponents with a high guard, but he doesn’t move his head much. He stands tall & it makes him more hittable. He is very durable and will not be broken. He has been able to not only survive but continue to come forward in round 3 against a monster, like John Lineker. He has 4 KO/TKO’s in his career and has never been finished.
Marlon Vera is a strong grappler, and very dangerous. He likes to get the Thai clinch & land hard knees to the head. He will also throw hard hooks to the body & head from the single collar. He is good at disengaging the clinch with combinations, especially against the cage, that is how he finished Buren. He landed a brutal combination of knees to the head of Guido Canneti against the cage that dropped him. He is awesome at throwing combinations against the cage with bad intentions and then going to the grappling. He hurt Canneti bad against the cage and attacked with a guillotine which was unsuccessful. He hurt Canneti again against the cage, this time getting a trip takedown, taking the back and getting the RNC. Vera doesn’t have the greatest takedown defense, but he is very tricky off his back. He has gotten an armbar against Brian Kelleher off his back. He will attack with nice elbows and has good get-ups also. He is improving & gaining confidence every time out. He has 7 submission victories & his last 4 victories are via finish. He has great cardio & gets better as the fight goes on. I think Vera needs to push the pace, walk Saenz down & try to back him towards the cage. He needs to use his front kicks & straight punches to get Saenz moving backwards, and then try to unload on him with combos in the clinch. If he rocks Saenz, he is a finisher and he may not let Saenz off the hook like other opponents.
Frankie Saenz
Age: 38
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 66”
Gym: Fight Ready MMA
From: Arizona
UFC Record: 5-3
Fight Matrix: 47
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +140
Frankie Saenz is a grinder. He has actually rounded out his striking, and it’s pretty solid. He has good footwork & lateral movement. He has a decent jab & strong, low leg kicks. He does a good job of landing straight & overhand rights. He will throw an overhand right, left hook combination. He has an accurate straight-right hand & does a good job of pull countering with it. He can set it up the same way becoming predictable, and fighters are able to catch him clean with his hands down & chin up trying to counter. He got rocked that way vs Augusto Mendes. He will throw nice left hook to the body to left hook to the head combinations. He will also throw a straight-right hand to the body. He has a good right uppercut, left hook combo. He is chinny and doesn’t take shots well. He was finished by Eddie Wineland and gets wobbled a lot in fights. He does a good job of surviving & recovering quickly. He has definitely been a decision fighter over his career, and never had a finish victory in the UFC. He has 3 TKO’s on his record & has been finished with strikes twice.
Saenz is a solid grappler, and former college wrestler. He is strong in the clinch & has good control against the fence. He will throw hard knees to the legs & body, and nice elbows. He dropped Augusto Mendes with a big clinch elbow. He does a good job of landing knees to the body & disengaging. He will get the Muay Thai plum clinch and is aggressive with knees. He has strong takedown defense & will create very fast scrambles. If you do take him down, he is very hard to hold down. He will throw unset up kicks at times & can get taken down due to that. He has a solid double leg shot. He will attack with single legs as well. He likes to duck under, get double underhooks & bull opponents over. On top, he is more of a control over damage fighter. He will not attempt many submissions either. He landed some pretty big elbows once he got Henry Briones down in his last match. He has two career submissions & has never been submitted. He has very good cardio & can go all three rounds. I expect Saenz to try to keep this fight standing and be the more technical striker. I see him trying to use his movement and walk Vera into shots. I think his low kick could be effective along with his straight & overhand right. If he can out volume Vera & not get clipped with a big shot, he could take a decision.
I can see why Vera is the favorite in this fight, but I would say it is a dog or pass fight for me on the betting line. Saenz is the better wrestler and can win this fight by grinding out a decision using his top control. My worry with that is that he is 38 years old now and Vera is tricky off his back. Vera should have the edge in the striking and he is more likely to pull off a submission on the ground, but Saenz does have a path to victory here if he can get takedowns and not get caught in a submission. I think if this fight does go all 15-minutes that Saenz has a good chance of getting his hand raised. I don’t see Vera knocking him out, and I think Saenz is good enough on top to avoid submissions, so I am going to take the +135 underdog in this spot as my pick to win.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Saenz. He should be the one getting takedowns and I think he has an easier time paying off his salary in a win. I don’t feel real confident in him winning, so I won’t have a ton of exposure to him, but he is one of my favorite underdogs to get a win. I think he is playable in all formats and I will likely be overweight to him in GPPs. I think Vera has the better chance at finishing the fight so if you want to put him in some GPP lineups I think that is fine. I don’t see me having too much exposure to him though and if I was making 10 or less lineups I would just fade him. With 20 lineups I would think I use him once or twice.
Winner – Frankie Saenz via Unanimous Decision
Bobby Moffett $8,800 vs Bryce Mitchell $7,400
Bobby Moffett
Age: 28
Height: 5’10
Weight: 145
Reach: 74”
Gym: MMA Lab
From: Illinois
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 61
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -165
Bobby Moffett is a very good grappler training out of the MMA Lab. He is looking to move to 2-0 in the UFC. Moffett is a forward pressure fighter & looking to use his shots to get inside & get takedowns. He will try to stay light on his feet, bounce in & out, but he is a bit stiff. He will throw an overhand right & right hook. He will throw a lead left hook. He will mix in uppercuts. He doesn’t throw very many kicks, but he has nice leg & head kicks. He really doesn’t even 100% commit to a lot of his punches & is only throwing them to distract opponents and eventually take them down. He will lean back & raise his chin up a bit when he defends and can be hit clean with straight punches & overhands. He can be hit with leg kicks as well, and when he is forced to strike he is uncomfortable. I feel he will have major issues with the speed of Mitchell on the feet. He is tough & willing to take shots to implement his game plan. He isn’t much of a standing knockout threat & only has one career TKO. He has been finished once by TKO.
Moffett is a very good wrestler, and a submission artist. He is very strong in the clinch with body lock takedowns, and he also likes to shoot singles and doubles when fighter’s backs are near the cage. Once he is on top, he works very quickly, and has great guard passing. He does a solid job of jumping right into side control, where he will unload with heavy elbows and hammerfists. He has good control in that position and is able to float into a wrestling ride when opponents try to get out. He has a great mount and feels like a boulder on top of opponents. He is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu and very dangerous with chokes. He has nice arm triangles and rear naked chokes, but his favorite choke is the D’arce. He can catch opponents in it both when they attempt to shoot on him or when he’s in top position. That makes him dangerous to shoot takedowns against along with him being a strong wrestler. He has great cardio and is always working in top position. He has great positional awareness as he just mauls guys. He has 9 submissions and has never been submitted in his career. Moffett cannot mess around on the feet here, he needs to try to time an entry, or catch a kick of Mitchell & take him down. He has to be mindful of Mitchell’s sweeps & guard, but if he can get to where he’s strong himself he could very well get a submission. I do feel that he needs to get it to the ground to have any chance at winning.
Bryce Mitchell
Age: 24
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Barata MMA
From: Arkansas
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 126
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +145
Bryce Mitchell is returning after a win on the TUF 27 finale. He is coming off a pretty horrific injury. He had his ballsack split open by a power drill & this is his first fight since. He will be taking on Bobby Moffett, who had a controversial win in his UFC debut. The referee stopped a fight too early when he had a choke locked in against Chas Skelly. Mitchell likes to fight long & is pretty quick in & out. He has good fakes & feints. He will switch stances frequently and is fluid from both stances. He has a really fast straight-right hand & a nice right hook. He will slip a punch & throw hard left hooks. He has a solid jab. He has good hooks in combination in close range. He has very fast hand speed. He will throw a lot of lead leg hook kicks to the body & head. He will throw front kicks & step in knees to the body. He will throw jumping round house kicks. He will feint a level change into a left hook. He will throw right uppercut, left hook combination. He has nice right hook to a body kick combination. He will throw the occasional round kick to the head. He will throw question mark kicks to the head. He is very quick & will slide out of the way of shots & return with counters such as check left hooks or right straights. When he slows down a bit he can be hit with some nice shots. Mitchell doesn’t have big power & really has most finishes via submission. He has never gotten a KO/TKO & has never been finished with strikes.
Mitchell is a solid grappler and has lot of submission wins. He sets his shots up very well with strikes. In the clinch, he has very nice knees to the legs & body. He will dig strong, double underhooks & has nice control against the cage. He has very good double leg takedowns against the cage. He will shoot nice single legs in the open mat. He will back opponents to the cage with a combination & finish with a double leg takedown. He has solid body lock trips. He is very good on top. He likes to use heavy pressure to pass & is always looking to take the back. He has very slick back takes & is funky. He will get a high guard, lock his legs & attack the body with shots. He will slowly bring up his legs until he can attack with a triangle armbar. He has good rear naked chokes as well. He can be shucked off the back into his guard, but he will quickly attack with submissions. He has a very high guard & will attack with triangles & armbars. He has very good, deep half guard sweeps. He will attack with kimuras from half guard to create scrambles. He is good in scrambles & is very hard to hold down. He has solid get-ups. Brad Katona was able to figure out the timing of Mitchell’s blitz entries & time a couple takedowns. He has 8 career submissions, all either by rear naked choke, triangle, or armbar. He has been submitted one time on TUF by Brad Katona. He will give his back when he tries to stand up & Katona was able to get a rear naked choke. Mitchell does seem to slow down a bit, but he doesn’t have bad cardio. I feel on the feet he is going to have a significant speed advantage. I think he will be able to land his straight-rights, his left hooks and nice kicks. Moffett is legit on the mat, and I don’t think Mitchell should look to grapple too much.
This is a fight between two solid grapplers. They are both ok on the feet as well, but 17 of their 24 combined wins have come via submission. I expect this to be a very closely contested fight and I would give the edge on the feet to Mitchell, and the edge on the ground to Moffett. I think Moffett is the better wrestler, so I would imagine he is the one to take the fight to the ground, and if he can stay out of submissions then I think that is what is going to win him this fight. If Mitchell is getting the better of him on the feet, then Moffett will go for takedowns and I expect he will get them multiple times in this fight. He could lock up a submission on the ground, but I think Mitchell will be good enough to survive and I will pick Moffett to win a wrestling-based decision.
This is one of the better fights to target from a DraftKings perspective. My preferred play is Moffett because I think he is the better wrestler and more likely to shoot for takedowns. I like the style he brings to the table and it scores well on DK. I also think Mitchell is a live dog and could potentially get a finish on the ground. I also think he could win in the striking department, but he wouldn’t put up a high score from a striking decision win. I like that both fighters are grapplers and we could see a lot of ground advances. In Mitchell’s debut he had 3 takedowns and was taken down 3 times as well. He also allowed his opponent to rack up 5 advances on the ground. Moffett can do that same thing and that is why I like him. He is not a confident pick to win, but if he does, he could score highly. That is what I like. I don’t love any underdogs on this slate, so I will be mixing in my exposure to the underdogs I think are potentially live to win. Mitchell is one of those guys, so I will have a bit of exposure.
Winner – Bobby Moffett via Unanimous Decision
Maycee Barber $8,900 vs JJ Aldrich $7,300
Maycee Barber
Age: 20
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125 (Debut)
Reach: 65”
Gym: Factory X MMA
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 23(SW)
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -235
Maycee Barber vs JJ Aldrich is a great fight. It’s two confident fighters who have been very successful of late. Both fighters are out of Colorado & training at good gyms. This fight is two fighters who are moving up from 115. I feel Barber will have a decent size advantage & I’m not sure why Aldrich is moving to 125. Barber has stated that she had to eat less than 500 calories a day during training camp in order to make 115 lbs and is much healthier at 125. She is very confident & wants to be the youngest champion in UFC history. At only 20 years old, she is very talented and on her way. She is 6-0 with 5 finishes & coming off a brutal finish in her UFC debut. Barbers arguably toughest fight to date was vs Aubrey Perkins & she trains with Aldrich. Barber is a very strong grappler & an improving striker. She is very young & getting much better every time out. Barber is very aggressive. She is a developing striker but has nice kicks and can switch stances. She will throw a nice check left hook & decent overhand or straight-right. She will switch stances and has a nice straight-left hand down the middle. She will throw a rear uppercut, left hook combination. She has a strong right hook. She will go high with kicks as well, and she’s always coming forward and putting the pressure on fighters. Her kicks are the best part of her striking game. She throws a lot of inside leg kicks, front and side kicks to the face and body. She will throw question mark kicks. She will throw nice round kicks to the head. She will throw them with both legs. She follows her round kick with a straight-right hand. She does a good job of feinting and faking before closing the distance. She doesn’t have good hands &, can really telegraph her punches, making her easy to counter. She isn’t the greatest defensive striker. She doesn’t move her head & holds her chin high. She will also lean back to defend shots instead of using footwork. She was improving with her hands in her last match & looked much crisper overall. She has three KO/TKO’s in her career, but all via G&P.
Barber is a tenacious grappler, and nasty in the clinch. She will throw brutal clinch knees to the legs, body & head and has excellent elbows. She busted up Hannah Cifers in her last match with elbows in the clinch. She does a great job of trapping a wrist &, landing hard elbows over the top. She will control fighters against the cage & beat them up with cage shots until she gets the fight to the mat. She is very physically strong and will muscle fighters around. She has very good clinch takedowns & is relentless in her attempts. When she gets the fight to the ground, she will look to posture up land nasty elbows. She landed some devastating ground & pound and really bloodied up the face of Hannah Cifers. When she gets the fight to the ground she is looking to do damage and finish. She is very good in scrambles and is hard to stand up from under. I have seen her taken down as well in fights, but she is very aggressive off her back with submission attempts & sweeps. She is extremely confident & feels she is the next big thing, but this is a big step up. She has only been fighting since 2017, and Aldrich is clearly a step above her previous opponents. She definitely needs to be all the way on the outside or the inside in this fight. She should use a lot of body & head kicks to shut down the left hand of Aldrich. She should also attack the lead leg of Aldrich. She doesn’t want to fight in punching range with Aldrich & most importantly wants to ultimately get this fight to the ground. She will be the physically stronger fighter, and if she can work her way into the clinch, I see her getting takedowns. I feel if she gets it to the ground, her ground & pound could be too much for Aldrich.
JJ Aldrich
Age: 26
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: 303 Training Center
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 19(SW)
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +195
JJ Aldrich is a solid striker & really improved since joining the UFC. She has won 3 consecutive UFC fights, and this is a huge opportunity for her. A win here would catapult Aldrich to the forefront and make her the premier prospect to watch. She is young herself at only 26 years old. Aldrich is a close friend & training partner of Rose Namajunas and will be well prepared here. Aldrich is a skilled striker & steadily improving. She is a southpaw, and a pretty technical striker. She is very good at controlling distance & staying long. She will paw out her lead hand to find her range & then drop her straight-left hand right down the pipe. She has a nasty right hook, straight-left hand combination. She will use the check right hook to counter when opponents over extend. She has a solid jab. She is very composed & I really like the way she controls distance. She will go forward, but constantly is aware of the range & is feinting when she enters & slides in & out of range. She is great at sliding away & countering with her straight-left or even a right hook, straight-left combination. She can overextend herself at times on punches. She doesn’t move her head much & it’s there to be hit if you can eat her shot & counter. She has nice body kicks & inside leg kicks. She will throw front kicks up the middle to the body & head. She holstered her kicks vs Viana & I imagine she will again here against another grappler. She will throw nice spinning back fists, and when she gets confident she is pretty good at landing combinations. She does stand heavy on her lead leg & struggled a bit with the kicks of Viana. She wasn’t able to find her range as well, because she was forced to defend kicks. I do feel as if she has won 9 consecutive rounds in the UFC and should be very confident. Aldrich only has one career TKO & I’m not sure she has the power to hurt Barber. Viana was able to walk through some of her punches, especially early and put some pressure on. If Barber is able to walk through her shots, she will be much more aggressive & may be able to bully Aldrich.
Aldrich has improved her grappling, but it is still where she has been exploited in the past. She showed strong clinch technique against Danielle Taylor, timing good upper body lock entries & tripping her to the floor. She was able to dig double underhooks & control Poliana Viana against the cage but doesn’t have much offense from there. She isn’t bad at when fighters get inside on her in the striking, digging the double unders & pushing her opponent to the cage or taking them down. I don’t recommend her trying to clinch fight at all vs Barber, because I feel Barber is very strong in that position. She has improved her takedown defense but can be taken down. When she fought Poliana Viana, she was taken down & got her back taken, but was able to quickly sweep to top position, move to half guard & land some nice G&P. She isn’t very good on top overall & when she takes top position she will usually just stall out. When she does get taken down, she has a decent guard & guard recovery. She works the butterfly guard & will try to create scrambles to stand up. Fighters in the past have been able to just use their strength & pressure to negate it and do damage on the ground. She has been submitted two times. She probably will be the most knowledgeable person off her back Barber has fought, but I’m not convinced she can stand up or stop the barrage of offense Maycee throws. She has no career submissions. Aldrich needs to be aggressive. She has to get respect early, meet Barber in the middle & land a big straight-left hand or combination and make Barber hesitant. She has to control distance here & make Barber pay for trying to get inside. If she can land some shots, get Barber desperate for a takedown & deny it, she could gas her out. Aldrich has great cardio, and usually has strong third rounds. Barber has only been a pro since 2017 and hasn’t been pushed or had to battle through adversity yet. Aldrich needs to be aggressive early, and then try to use her veteran savvy to win a decision. I don’t expect her to get a finish, and she has to avoid the clinch or ground to win.
Barber is being talked up as the next big thing in women’s MMA. Her nickname is “The Future” and so far, I would say she has lived up to her name. She is very young though at 20 years old and she only has 6 professional fights on her record. She is 6-0 with 5 finishes, but she is facing a well-rounded veteran here in Aldrich. On the feet, Aldrich can probably make this a close fight, but I would expect Barber to be the one setting the higher pace and throwing the harder strikes. If Barber can get takedowns, then that is where she should dominate. She has mean ground and pound and if she can unleash that on Aldrich then she could get another TKO win here. She could also weaken JJ up with the strikes on the ground and then lock up a submission. To me, this looks like a setup fight that the UFC wants Barber to win. Usually when that is the case I like to side with the UFC and I think they will get this one right and Barber will pick up a clear win here. She could get a finish, but I will take her by 30-27 decision.
On DraftKings, Barber is my preferred play and she is one of my favorite plays of the week. If she wins, I think she scores well. I also feel fairly confident that she does win. JJ is going to need to keep this fight standing to win and I don’t think she has the power to KO Barber, so I don’t have any interest in her. I will full fade JJ here and get extra leverage to Barber. She is playable in all formats and I will be overweight to the field. I would project her around 45-50% ownership so I want to be sure I have more than that with my lineups. I think if you are playing 3-5 lineups then she is a solid all-in play. I expect about 100-points from Barber here and I think she has a good chance of being on the optimal lineup. She doesn’t even need a finish to score that high, but it would help of course.
Winner – Maycee Barber via Unanimous Decision
Luis Pena $9,200 vs Steven Peterson $7,000
Luis Peña
Age: 25
Height: 6’3
Weight: 145(Debut)
Reach: 78”
Gym: AKA
From: Arkansas
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 372
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -255
Luis Peña is making the move down to 145 lbs after a loss at LW. He will be a massive FW at 6’3 with a 78” reach. He is taking on a tough scrapper in Steven “Ocho” Peterson, who is coming off his first UFC win via decision. Pena is a fairly big name & it’s an opportunity for Ocho Peterson to make a name for himself. Luis Peña is a well-rounded fighter who is training at AKA. Luis Pena is an intimidating presence in the octagon, he has a wide stance, and likes to close the distance, and stalk you to the cage. He is also more of a fighter who likes to touch his opponents with shots, and pepper them instead of putting big power in all his shots. He throws a nice jab, and good straight-right hand. He will throw hooks to the body as well. He has nice front kicks to the body and head. He has good lead uppercuts. He has step in knees, and will grab the plum, and throw a knee to the head. He really is very raw. On the feet, he mainly just spams one-twos & becomes very predictable. He can stand flat footed himself, and fighters are able to land longer punch combinations. He also stands heavy on his lead leg & Mike Trizano was able to beat up his lead leg. He doesn’t throw with very much power. He only has one TKO finish in his 6-fight career.
He is a decent grappler and has been training with AKA, so his wrestling should be improving. He has good cardio. He likes to get fighters against the cage with his striking, get fighters thinking about his striking and level change for a double leg. He has solid single legs and will drive opponents to the cage. He will control opponents against the cage with double underhooks. He does a good job of using his length to take the back & has good back takes from standing. He has good double legs when he gets his hands clamped, and on top he is only, alright. He doesn’t really have great top control or ground & pound. Even when he takes the back, he tends to allow more experienced fighters to turn in or scramble back to their feet. His length allows him to be very tricky on the ground, and he has fast hips and good sweeps. He was able to sweep Ritchie Smullen in his last fight and then catch a guillotine choke after rocking him. He has a nice triangle and kimura and has 4 submission finishes. He has finished all his pro wins. I think Pena needs to try to use his straight punches, uppercuts & front kicks to keep Peterson on the outside. He needs to try to use Peterson’s aggressiveness against him, walk him into shots and clinch him up or take him down when he gets inside.
Steven Peterson
Age: 28
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Fortis MMA
From: Texas
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 100
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +215
Steven Peterson is a grinder & much more experienced than Pena. He is a come forward striker. He will throw leg kicks. He throws nice jabs. He likes to throw one-twos. He will throw overhand rights to close the distance. He will throw a right hook to a straight-left hand combination. When he gets inside he will attack with hooks & uppercuts. He will throw multiple overhand rights in a row when opponents are near the cage. He will throw front & round kicks to the body. He will throw jumping front kicks, and Superman punches. He throws hard & has more pop in his shots than Pena. He doesn’t move his head & will just walk forward on straight lines. He has a fantastic chin and will walk through shots with no issue. He has no problem taking damage to give his own & welcomes a brawl. He will stand in the pocket & wing shots. He has 4 career KO/TKO’s & has only been finished once by strikes.
He is a grinder, and a solid grappler. He is good at controlling opponents against the cage & stays active there. He will throw nice knees & elbows. He has solid body lock takedowns. He has decent single legs. He jumped on a guillotine in his last match. When he takes top position, he is very heavy. He will methodically pass to better positions. In half guard, he will throw short elbows & attack with arm triangles. He will get the crucifix position if he moves to side control. He will throw hard elbows to the head & knees to the body from side control. He has solid back takes & good control. He will soften opponents up with nice elbows before trying to lock in the RNC. He has 8 career submissions. He has never been submitted. He has great cardio & an unbreakable will. Peterson is going to try to march Pena down, and make this an ugly, grinding fight. He will want to push Pena against the cage & control him while looking for takedowns. I think if he can take top position, he will be able to control on top better than Pena will to him. Peterson does a good job of drawing opponents into his type of fight. In 3 of his 5 decision losses they are via split decision and could have gone his way.
Pena has a lot of hype behind him after his season of The Ultimate Fighter. He is a well-rounded fighter with a solid skillset, and his likable personality could even be affecting this betting a bit as well. I think he is the rightful favorite here but -300 is too steep in my opinion. Peterson has a lot more experience than Pena and I expect him to make this a dirty fight. He throws at a much higher pace on the feet and he like to push forward and mix in takedowns as well. I think he is a live underdog here, but he will have to make it a brawl and not let Pena strike at distance or get takedowns of his own. I do think Pena is the more athletic fighter though and he could get a submission or TKO finish. I think he has the higher ceiling in terms of potential as well, and I think the UFC wants him to win this fight. I am going to side with what I think the UFC wants to happen again, but if I was going to bet this fight I would take the +250 on Peterson. I think Pena should be closer to -180 or so in this spot, so the value is on Peterson, but I will pick Pena to get a submission here by taking advantage of Peterson pushing forward and getting takedowns because of it.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Peterson. However, I think he will be pretty chalky this week and that is going to keep me from having too much ownership. I am picking him to get finished, but I think he is live and there are reasons to target him. He lands over 5 sig strikes per minute compared to 1.69 from Pena. They also land takedowns at about the same rate, so the pace Peterson sets is what I like most about him. I think if he can avoid getting finished then he has a good chance of pulling off the upset. The stats say that he should win a decision if it goes to one and that is what I would be investing in. Pena on the other hand will need the finish to pay off his salary. He does not fight at a high enough pace to score 10x in a decision win, so I think he is a GPP only play. I think he is the more talented fighter and could get the finish, but it’s not something I want to invest heavily in. I will throw him in a few lineups, but I think Peterson is in play in all formats and I will probably have the same amount or more lineups with him. If you want to go overweight on him then I have no issue with that. I just think he will be 25-30% owned and that is what is taking me off him a bit in GPPs. Not sure if he makes my cash lineup or not but I would prefer to eat the chalk in cash games.
Winner – Luis Pena via 2nd round Submission
Deiveson Figueiredo $8,500 vs Jussier Formiga $7,700
Deiveson Figueiredo
Age: 31
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 68”
Gym: Marajó Brothers
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 4-0
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W15
Betting Odds: -140
This is what I would like to say is a #1 contenders match at FW. I’m not sure if the division will be around for them to compete for the belt, but these are two elite competitors in the division. Jussier Formiga is the experienced veteran, having fought “The Who’s Who” of the division & is peaking right now. He has won 3 consecutive fights & is coming off a dominant victory over Sergio Pettis. He will be taking on the undefeated knockout artist Deiveson Figueiredo. Figueiredo is one of the biggest FWs I have ever seen & loves to bully opponents. Figueiredo is coming off a pretty brutal finish of John Moraga. He is 15-0 overall and 4-0 in the UFC. He is a huge flyweight and he uses it to try to intimidate his opponents. He likes to walk down his opponents, hands down, looking for his opponents to counter, so he can return with uppercuts and straight punches. He has an extremely powerful straight-right hand, and a sick uppercut. He landed some brutal body punches against Moraga & took him out. He has very nice body kicks, but he doesn’t throw many kicks. When he feels you starting to wilt he will attack heavy for the kill. He rocked John Moraga with a brutal elbow off the break when they were standing up. He can be a bit inactive and just follow, looking for one big shot or a takedown entry. He doesn’t cut the cage off very well. He is a bit slow and open to be hit. He has 8 KO/TKO’s, including 2 in a row & can change the fight with one shot.
A lot of people see Figueiredo as more of a striker, but he is a better grappler. His striking is largely to back opponents up, so he can try to wrestle. He gets inside very well and gets the double underhooks in the clinch and looks for trip takedowns. He was able to continuously get the body lock & dump John Moraga in his last match. He also has a strong double leg. He is very powerful and when he takes you down, he has nice control, good ground & pound, and looks for submissions. He can be taken down himself, but he attacks with guillotines, kimuras and is very active off his back. He was largely controlled in his fight against Jarred Brooks & got his back taken in a scramble. He can’t be put on his back against Jussier. He seems to have good BJJ & a good guard, but I don’t think he can stand up even if Formiga can’t pass his guard. He can be a little bit predictable when opponents force him to go first striking & he doesn’t throw a lot of variation. He can lunge into shots, overextend, and it makes it easy to take him down. He has 5 career submissions. In this fight, I actually do feel he will try to mix it up. It’s a dangerous game, but I don’t think Deiveson has the advanced striking game to try to strike 3 rounds. I do feel his game plan is going to be to make the cage feel small, walk Formiga down, feint & fake and force bad takedown attempts or wild punches. He can make fighters feel uncomfortable with how confident he is in walking them down & Moraga seemed to panic a bit. I do think he will try to get in on body locks & take Formiga down. Formiga has been taken down by fighters such as Ray Borg. If he can land a clean shot on Formiga as well, he has a chance to put him out. He is one of the hardest hitters in the division & Formiga has been taken out before.
Jussier Formiga
Age: 33
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 8-4
Fight Matrix: 3
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: +120
Formiga is a technical striker and has really improved that part of his game. He is light on his feet & has good footwork. He will throw a jab, straight-right hand. He also will throw a jab, left hook combo. He has nice lead left hooks. He will throw an uppercut to an overhand left combination. He will throw nice overhand rights. He is good at landing it a few times, getting opponents to respect it & then level changing into a double leg. He has fantastic leg kicks and has really improved his leg kicks. He is more of a counter striker, he likes to wait for fighters to close the distance and land a right hook. He will land wide hooks when he’s in the pocket. He will use his overhand right to grab a hold of the clinch, and then try to dig underhooks and land knees. He has nice spinning back fists & spinning heel kicks to the body. He has fought the best of the best and has good success. He has been TKO’d twice, but his striking has vastly improved since then.
Formiga is an elite grappler. He is very good at disguising his takedowns with his striking. He has strong single & double legs. He gets a lot of his takedowns in the clinch with body locks or by catching kicks. When he takes fighters down he is great on top, he has fantastic guard passes, and will move from half guard right into mount. He has great control in the mount and will land nice ground & pound. He is one of the best back takers in the sport and can slide his hooks in with a quickness. Once he takes the back, he will use a body triangle, and has tremendous back control. If he gets on his opponents back, he most likely is submitting them or controlling them for the remainder of the round. This is most likely his last chance to get a chance at a title fight, so I guarantee he has trained like a wild man for this match. He has 10 submissions himself and has never been submitted. Formiga is going to want to use his lateral movement, good footwork, and walk Figueiredo into shots. He has nice leg kicks, which I feel will be effective along with just having the better, tighter punches. He has to be careful not to get clipped with a big counter, but he also can land a big shot on Deiveson. I think if he is obviously winning the striking & Figueiredo will become more wild & predictable and then he can get takedowns. If he gets on top, he is most likely going to win that round.
The UFC let go of most their 125 lbs fighters because they are planning on scrapping the division. They did keep these two around for a reason though. Both are top-level guys and this fight could put the winner in title contention. Deiveson is undefeated and 13 of his 15 wins are via finish. He has skills on the feet and on the mat and I am very high on him in general. I think he can win this fight on the feet or get takedowns and win a decision with his top control. However, Formiga is the better BJJ fighter and I would expect Deiveson to avoid the mat and try to keep this standing. I would expect him to win a clear decision if that is the case, or maybe even a knockout. Formiga will be looking to get this fight to the ground or he will try to get on Deiveson’s back while he is standing and try to lock up a submission that way. He is a grapple or bust fighter in this spot though. He has zero TKO’s and he doesn’t strike at a high enough pace to win decisions on the feet. I think Deiveson will be able to keep this fight standing and keep Formiga from finishing him with a standing RNC submission. I have to lean with the favorite in this spot and I think this could end in a knockout. If there is no finish in this fight then I do expect it to be a boring, slow paced decision, but I will take Deiveson via TKO.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Figueiredo. I think he has the higher ceiling and I think he can get a finish. I don’t love this fight on DK though. I do want a couple shots on both sides, more so for Fig, but if there is no finish then it won’t score highly. I don’t know if Fig wants to go for takedowns in this spot, so I think he will need a KO to end up on the optimal. He doesn’t strike at a high enough pace to do well at all in a decision win with no takedowns, so he could kill a lineup with a 30-27 striking win. Same thing goes with Formiga. I think he is a live dog, so I want a bit of him. I just think he has to get a sub to score well because he doesn’t strike or wrestle at a high enough pace in a decision win. We could see the winner score 50-points in a decision win. I think you can fade this fight for that reason. If I am making 10 lineups I would probably have 2 Fig and 1 Formiga. I don’t care for this fight in cash games either so that 30% (max) of lineups would be solely GPP banking on the finish from either guy. I think Fig has a better shot of getting it with a TKO than Formiga does with the sub, so that is why he is my preferred play of the two.
Winner – Deiveson Figeuiredo via 2nd round (T)KO
John Makdessi $9,100 vs Jesus Pinedo $7,100
John Makdessi
Age: 33
Height: 5’8
Weight: 155
Reach: 68”
Gym: Roufusport Gym
From: Canada
UFC Record: 9-6
Fight Matrix: 47
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -320
John Makdessi has resurrected his career since moving to Roufusport. He has won back to back fights, looking as sharp as ever. He will be taking on Jesus Pinedo who is a young 22-year-old prospect out of Peru. He won his UFC debut in Argentina late last year. Pinedo is stepping in for Nasrat Haqparast, and this is a big step up in opponent for him. John Makdessi is a very technical striker with a black belt in Karate & Taekwondo. He is very quick in & out and has a fun style to watch. He used a lot of footwork, angles, gets reads & sets up nice shots. He has a very strong straight-right hand. He will blitz in with it. He will throw nice jabs, going forward and backwards to keep distance. Makdessi is going to be trying to move make Pinedo miss & make him pay with counters. He has very nice counter jabs moving backwards, along with counter straight-right hands. He will throw left hook to straight-right hand combinations. He has nice leg kicks, both inside & outside. He will attack the body with round & switch kicks. He will go high with it & throw nice round kicks, question mark & spinning kicks to the head. Makdessi is coming off back to back fights where he put on striking clinics. He landed clean on Ross Pearson at will & almost got him out of there multiple times. He is good defensively. He has good head movement, nice footwork & can fight moving backwards. Makdessi has 9 career KO/TKO’s. He does have a questionable chin & doesn’t take shots well. He has been hurt multiple times in the UFC & finished twice by KO/TKO.
Makdessi is not an offensive grappler. He has improved his defensive wrestling a lot. When he first entered the UFC, he was getting taken down at will by Dennis Hallman, and his takedown defense is much better than that now. He has a good sprawl, and more importantly is better at seeing the takedowns coming. He is very good at getting his hips back or being ready to counter with a shot. He has fairly good get-ups against the cage. When fighters can establish top position on him, we haven’t seen much from him in terms of bottom game. He doesn’t attack with submissions or sweeps and can be stuck on his back for the entirety of rounds. His only submission loss is the aforementioned loss to Dennis Hallman, and he has no submissions himself. Makdessi has solid cardio & can keep the same pace for all three rounds. He has a wealth of experience over Pinedo & should be able to use that to his advantage. He will be calmer & composed, especially early and needs to use his technique to counter the aggressiveness of Pinedo. Pinedo’s striking is very open & wild. If Makdessi can make Pinedo miss & counter with a shot he doesn’t see coming, he could put him down. He needs to deny a few takedown attempts if they come. If Makdessi can be dominating the striking and deny the takedowns he could make him gun shy & cruise to a finish or get a finish over the overaggressive Pinedo.
Jesus Pinedo
Age: 22
Height: 6’0
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Pitbull Martial Arts Center
From: Peru
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 235
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: +260
Pinedo is only 22 years old but is very experienced at 16-4-1 being a pro since he was 18 years old. He is extremely aggressive, and a very tall and long striker. He has very good in and out movement, he will paw out with his jab to gauge distance, and he has a good left hook and straight-right hand. He doesn’t have the greatest hands & likes to fight at kicking range. He has nasty kicks. He will throw a snappy front kick to the body, and hard round kicks to the body and head. He is very fast with his kicks, and they are powerful. In the pocket, he gets wild, and will just start to brawl and throw straight punches and hooks. It leaves him open to be hit and knocked out, but also makes him very dangerous. He has strong knees and elbows in close range, and he is always looking to finish the fight. He has 7 KO/TKO finishes, but like I said his open style leaves him vulnerable to being finished himself, and he has been KO/TKO’d twice. He is young at only 22 years old, and still has a good chin, while being very calm and experienced in wars now. When he has fighters hurt, he swarms and is a finisher.
Pinedo is a solid grappler as well. He is strong in the clinch and has nasty knees to the body and the head along with elbows. He finishes opponents in the clinch, and his long frame makes him very dangerous there. He will occasionally shoot for doubles and singles against the cage, and he has nice throws in the clinch, but he usually prefers to strike. His takedown defense is strong, and he has a good sprawl, and will throw big elbows, or get on top himself. On top, he is devastating with ground & pound and relentless. He will rain down big punches and elbows, and he has nice submissions as well. He has a good armbar from mount, and he will transition it into a triangle, and finish the fight. He has a nasty guillotine and can finish it from standing position. He seems to lack some faith in his Jiu-Jitsu. In his last match against Devin Powell, he wouldn’t commit to getting in his guard, instead throwing leg kicks & punches to the feet, body & head from standing. He is long and was able to land some nice shots to the head even from standing. He is training at a solid gym which has produced a few UFC fighters, and with steady improvements, Pinedo could potentially be a top 15 fighter.
Both fighters were scheduled to fight other opponents, but their opponents both pulled out and this fight created late because of it. Makdessi is purely a striker and we won’t see him going for any takedowns in this spot. Pinedo is a young, well-rounded fighter, but you have to think he will want to get this fight to the ground. Makdessi should have the edge on the feet and there is no danger of being submitted by him off his back if Pinedo can get takedowns. That is the path to victory for Pinedo if he can land takedowns, but Makdessi has an 87% takedown defense and I think he will be able to stuff most, if not all the takedowns. If that is the case, then he should win this fight via KO or decision. Pinedo looks like he could be decent in the future, but this is a big step up for him, so I have to side with the veteran to get his hand raised.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Pinedo. I think he is a decent GPP pivot away from Peterson and I think he could pull off a win. Not likely, but possible. I do think he could potentially be decent down the road because he does show some skills, but he is young and not there yet. I think that is the reason Makdessi beats him here. I like that Pinedo would be the one looking for takedowns and I think he has a decent floor as well. I don’t mind him for cash games with that floor, but I think he is a better GPP play. I really don’t have much interest in Makdessi because he probably needs a KO to end up on the optimal lineup. He will not be shooting for takedowns and I don’t see him landing enough strikes to pay off his salary in a decision win. I will likely full fade Makdessi here and hope that he doesn’t get a 1st round knockout to ruin my night. Maybe I will throw him in 1 lineup, just so I could still be live if that does happen. However, I do want to get some Pinedo lineups and I will be hoping he can get the win. I don’t see him being highly owned, so I would think more than 20% would be overweight. That is what I will be doing.
Winner – John Makdessi via Unanimous Decision
Curtis Blaydes $9,000 vs Justin Willis $7,200
Curtis Blaydes
Age: 28
Height: 6’4
Weight: 260
Reach: 80”
Gym: Elevation Fight Team
From: Colorado
UFC Record: 5-2-1
Fight Matrix: 7
Last Fought: 4 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -280
Curtis Blaydes vs Justin Willis is a very interesting fight. Curtis Blaydes is returning just 4 months after his knockout loss at the hands of Francis Ngannou. Justin Willis is undefeated in the UFC and coming off a big win over Mark Hunt. This is a big fight for the career trajectory of both fighters. A win here would put both guys up there in title contention. Curtis Blaydes is a big wrestler who trains out of team Elevation. He is improving his striking, and he has much better footwork and feints than he had at the start of his UFC Career. He will throw a lot of jabs and one-twos. He is quick for a heavyweight and tries to march you down and throws a decent amount of volume even if he isn’t super accurate. He can sometimes retract his punches a little slow and can get countered and clipped. He has a very good chin. He was never hurt badly and took a ton of shots against Ngannou, and then survived a knockdown in round 1 against Mark Hunt. He recovers extremely quickly. Eventually the lights will start to go out much easier & he has taken a lot of damage. His right hand is powerful, and if he can land one clean on the chin he can knock fighters’ unconscious. His speed, footwork, head movement and cardio will be hard for HWs to deal with standing up, and that’s with them knowing Blaydes is always trying to take them down also. Blaydes has 8 KO/TKO’s and has been finished by strikes twice in his career both to Ngannou. He may be returning too quickly after being knocked out & his chin needs to be monitored here.
Blaydes is one of the best HW wrestlers I have ever seen. He is one of the few HWs who are athletic enough to shoot takedowns, and he does an excellent job of waiting until fighters are just a little off balance or a little out of position and blasting an easy double leg. He is much better at closing the distance safely, and timing when to shoot them. He likes to grind in the clinch as well, where he will get his opponent to the cage, and work short shots while looking to find a takedown. On top, he is vicious. He rearranged the face of Alistair Overeem in his last match, and he has learned where he is strongest in top position. When he can get to dominant positions, he is extremely heavy and has some of the best G&P in the sport. He isn’t a submission threat with 0 in his career & has never been submitted. Blaydes has tremendous cardio. He is going to want to use his size to bully Willis & get this fight to the ground. We have yet to see Willis defend a takedown, or how he is off his back. There is a chance that if Blaydes can take him down Willis could look like a turtle on his back.
Justin Willis
Age: 31
Height: 6’3
Weight: 263
Reach: 82”
Gym: AKA
From: California
UFC Record: 4-0
Fight Matrix: 13
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: +240
Justin Willis is a very brash, confident HW. He has stated he is going to kick Curtis Blaydes’ ass and take over the division. He has seen what the best of the best is at HW, training at AKA. He has been able to train with the likes of DC & Cain Velasquez & is confident he can compete with everyone in the division. Willis is a very good boxer with nice footwork. He is always circling laterally, pawing out his jab & one-twos and controlling the center. He has very good hand speed, a very snappy jab, and hard straight-right hand. He was able to continuously snap the head back of Mark Hunt with his jab and put a boxing clinic on him. Willis has a very nice left hook. He will throw a left hook to straight-right hand combination, and a straight-right hand to a left hook combination. He will throw a lot of low leg kicks, and body kicks. Willis is low output and minimizes risks by slowing down the pace of fights. He lulls opponents into a methodical pace, where he can keep them on the outside with his reach, rack up points and take a decision. He is explosive & athletic, being a former college football player, he can close the distance quickly with powerful overhands hooks & uppercuts. Willis will throw the occasional head kick. His striking game is mainly about sticking & moving, using his movement and being too slick for these HWs. He has no problem taking a decision, where he jabbed on the outside for 3 rounds. He has 4 KO/TKO’s in his career & was TKO’d in his pro debut, which is his only loss.
Willis’ grappling is largely unknown. He does train out of AKA, which is one of, if not the best MMA wrestling gym in the world. There are fighters there such as Cain, DC, Khabib, Islam Machachev etc. He has seen & felt what elite wrestling & pressure is and is confident he can counter act it. He does have a couple body lock takedowns in the UFC, but I highly doubt he tries to take Blaydes down here. He has defended 0 takedowns in the UFC & yet to see an opponent shoot in on him. He is a shorter, thicker HW which could make him harder to takedown for Blaydes. Willis has said he thinks his wrestling is better than Curtis’ & if that’s the case then Willis will win the fight. Willis knows how to pace himself & seems very calm in the cage. He has good cardio, but we haven’t seen how it stands up against a grappling heavy game plan. He has 0 submissions & has never been submitted himself. Willis is going to want to stick & move here. He has the much cleaner boxing technique. He is lighter on his feet, has better footwork, and faster tighter punches. He also has a 2” reach advantage. He needs to use that defensive footwork movement to keep Blaydes at the end of his punches, snap the jab out there, work his one-twos move & piece Blaydes up. He needs to be ready to defend takedowns & do damage when Blaydes does try to take him down. If he can make him pay for the takedown attempts with counters, he could break Blaydes. Willis has said some interesting things, like Blaydes has never shown he can be the nail. He feels if he can push Blaydes, & or force him into a bad situation he will quit.
This is a heavyweight fight between two of the top guys. Willis is 4-0 in the UFC and he will look to keep this fight standing. I would say he has the more technical striking and he could win the fight if he can keep it on the feet. Blaydes is coming off a TKO loss 4-months ago, so maybe him coming back so early will help Willis get that KO. However, Blaydes has to be the favorite here because of his relentless wrestling. They both strike at about the same pace and they both have KO power. The big difference between the stats with these two is Blaydes landing 6.75 takedowns per 15-minutes compared to 1.26 from Willis. Blaydes will be looking to get this fight to the ground where he will have a clear advantage with his top control and ground and pound. I have to lean with him getting that done and if he can then he should dominate. These are big boys though and it only takes one shot to shut their lights out, so if you are betting on Blaydes here then you have to know he could get knocked out fast and our night could be over quickly. However, I do think this is a favorite or pass spot and I will pick Blaydes to win inside the distance.
This is one of my favorite fights to target on DraftKings. I have a hard time seeing the winner of this fight not being on the 1st place lineup. Blaydes is definitely my preferred play and I think he is playable in all formats. I prefer him more for GPPs because I do think he has a low floor, but he has the highest ceiling on the whole card IMO. I will have Blaydes in more than half my lineups and probably more than 70%. I do want some Willis lineups though as a hedge because if he wins then I think it would be by knockout. I don’t see him winning a decision because Blaydes shouldn’t be interested in boxing with him. It is either a Blaydes mauling on the ground or a Willis KO. That is how I see this fight going and I am siding with Blaydes. He is one of the best plays on the slate because of his grappling upside and if he can get Willis to the ground then he will be in no danger and should rack up a bunch of takedown & ground and pound points.
Winner – Curtis Blaydes via 2nd round (T)KO
Stephen Thompson $9,300 vs Anthony Pettis $6,900
Stephen Thompson
Age: 36
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: Team Upstate Karate
From: South Carolina
UFC Record: 9-3-1
Fight Matrix: 5
Last Fought: 10 Months
Last Five: 2-2-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -410
This is a fight most fight fans probably thought was impossible to make. The former 155 lb kingpin, Anthony Pettis, will be making the move up to 170 lbs to take on the former title challenger Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson. This is a battle of two of the flashiest strikers in MMA history. Anthony Pettis is coming off a spirited loss to Tony Ferguson, where he almost got the finish. Stephen Thompson is coming off a very controversial loss to Darren Till in which most people felt he won. Thompson is taking a big risk here. He is the guy in much better form right now & closer to a title shot in his division. If he were to lose this fight to Pettis who is 3-6 in his last 9 fights at lower weight divisions it would be devastating for his career. At 36 years old this is a must win for Wonderboy. As for Pettis, this fight is a win-win. He has competed at 145 lbs and is now moving up to 170 & taking on a beast. A win here would further cement Pettis as an MMA legend & jumpstart his career. If he loses he still took the risk and has balls for taking the fight.
Stephen Thompson is returning after a fairly long layoff. He has taken 10 months off and has struggled to find opponents who are willing to fight him. He had fights with opponents such as Santiago Ponzinibbio, and Leon Edwards not materialize for whatever reason, but is finally getting this opportunity here. This fight doesn’t do much for Wonderboy, and it is one of those trap fights, where someone can sneak up on you. He has to take Pettis seriously, because he is dangerous. Everyone knows about Stephen Thompson’s striking pedigree. He is a 5th degree black belt in karate & a phenomenal striker. Thompson has that sideways karate stance, and a very unique skill set. He switches stances and is blazing fast in & out. He has the best distance control in the UFC bar none. That sideways stance makes him extremely hard to get inside on, or hit to the body or head. It does leave him susceptible to leg kicks, and Darren Till was able to damage the leg of Thompson with an oblique kick. Thompson has a nasty jab, and very good one-two especially from southpaw. He has a very heavy straight-left hand. He will use his opponents forward pressure to angle & counter with punches usually. He is excellent at pivoting or moving just slightly out of the way & then springing back in with counters. Against Tyron Woodley he did have some success going first, landing combinations as Woodley was along the cage. He would paw out the jab to get openings for his hooks & uppercuts. He also will attack the body with straights and hooks as well. He uses his lead leg incredibly well from both sides. He has the best front kicks to the body & head in the game. He will constantly attack the body with the front kick to get opponents to drop their hands & then goes to the head. He likes to throw a one-two from orthodox, switch stances into a question mark kick to the head. He has nice hook kicks to the head, along with spinning heel kicks. His spinning heel kick to the body & most specifically the head, maybe the best in the sport. He has multiple spinning heel kick knockouts in the UFC. Thompson does have a good chin & is tougher than Pettis is at this point in their careers in my opinion. Thompson has been taking some damage lately. He has been dropped in 3 of his last 4 fights, but he’s still never been stopped with strikes. He has 7 KO/TKO’s in his career.
Stephen Thompson is not an active grappler whatsoever. He has shown the ability to land the double leg. He will fake a blitz attack & then duck under for reactive double legs. He won’t be shooting takedowns in this fight. His takedown defense is very good. His movement overall makes it hard for opponents to time a solid entry or get inside on him. His sideways stance also makes it nearly impossible to double leg him. He had two fights with a powerhouse wrestler in Tyron Woodley and was hardly taken down. The couple times he was taken down Woodley was able to do damage with G&P. Thompson has shown extreme heart & ability to fight submissions. He was rocked badly multiple times & then put in a deep guillotine against Tyron Woodley but found his way out of it. Thompson is going to be someone who will be extremely hard to submit or control on the mat. He is used to fighting off much bigger, stronger opponents than Pettis, and unless Pettis can catch a kick, or jump on the back or something in an odd scramble I don’t see him grounding Wonderboy. Thompson has never been submitted & has one career submission himself. Thompson is going to want to just play his game here, control distance, use his lead leg, and blitz attacks to keep Pettis at bay. He is going to be bigger than anyone Pettis has ever fought, and I’m not sure Pettis can take clean punches & kicks from Wonderboy without going out.
Anthony Pettis
Age: 32
Height: 5’10
Weight: 170 (Debut)
Reach: 73”
Gym: Roufusport
From: Wisconsin
UFC Record: 8-7
Fight Matrix: 11(LW)
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +330
Anthony Pettis is still one of the premier range strikers in the UFC. He has extremely fast kicks and his left body kick is one of the nastiest kicks in MMA history. He likes to switch stances and use the opposite stance of his opponent, so he can land the liver kick. He uses a lot of feints and fakes and doesn’t really throw a lot of volume but keeps you guessing, off balance and then will mix in big one-shot attacks. He has a nice check left hook and good straight-right hand. He has a nice jab and is good at walking opponents into his jab. He will throw hard overhand rights. He dropped Tony Ferguson with a good straight-right hand. He will stick in the pocket and try to counter with that shot in exchanges. He will open up and throw some crazy kicks at times, such as jumping spinning heel kicks, jumping roundhouse kicks, kicks off the cage etc. When you give him space and let him strike, he is elite. When you pressure him and jam his kicks and get him moving backwards, he is much less effective. In this fight, he will get a fighter who is going to give him the fight he wants & he will be able to show off his tools. Pettis has 9 KO/TKO’s, but none since 2013. He has been finished by KO/TKO twice and has essentially quit in 2 of his last 3 fights. He has retired due to injury, and it may be an indicator he’s not 100% invested anymore.
Pettis struggles with letting guys push him against the cage, get in on his legs, and his wrestling is very suspect. He struggles to get his back off the cage, and with chain wrestling. He won’t have to worry about that in this match up. His Jiu-Jitsu from his guard is straight nasty. He does a great job of controlling the wrist and then attacking with triangles. He throws his legs up extremely fast, and he will also attack with a slick guillotine and armbar as well. He has good kimuras. He has very good sweeps himself and will get top position but doesn’t have an amazing top game, a lot of the times he will just get back up. Pettis needs to go for it here. He needs to go forward, be dynamic, let his shots go and try to land something clean. If he can land a big kick, or a big knee it is possible he could KO Wonderboy. I also feel at some point in this fight, Pettis will try to get it to the ground, and work his Jiu-Jitsu.
This fight doesn’t make much sense to me. Pettis is a 155 lb fighter who even fought at 145 lbs not too long ago. Now he is making his 170 lb debut against one of the top guys and a guy who is probably better at what he does best. I have to think Pettis is just taking this fight for the paycheck and has no aspiration of a 170 lb title fight. This is the biggest mismatch on the card and the betting line reflects it. I think the only chance Pettis has in this fight is to get a finish, whether that be a knockout or submission. The problem with that is I think ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson beats him on the feet and will be able to stuff any of Pettis’ takedowns. I expect Wonderboy to use his length and size in this fight and pick Pettis apart on the feet. I think he eventually knocks Pettis out with kicks to the head or body, but I think he dominates the entire fight. This is probably the best parlay piece on the card and I am going to pick Wonderboy by a TKO before the 4th round.
Generally, I don’t care to target Wonderboy for DK and now with him at $9.3k it makes it even harder to want to. However, I feel pretty good about Wonderboy getting a finish here and if that is the case then he can pay off that salary. He also has 5-rounds to do it, so I like him in all formats. I don’t think I will stack in cash though, so it is Wonderboy or fade there. I also think I will be overweight to Wonderboy and underweight to Pettis. I think the Pettis name will carry enough ownership for me to stay away and I don’t hate a full fade on him. If Wonderboy wins a decision, then he won’t pay off his salary and he won’t be on the optimal lineup. If you think that will be the case, then I don’t hate a fade on him either and just full fade the main event that should have close to 70% combined ownership. I will probably have Wonderboy in about half or more of my lineups though and I think he does have 100-point upside here. I will be hoping he goes underowned because of his lack of volume and takedowns and I will be rooting for the early TKO. I think this is a terrible matchup for Pettis and I would be pretty shocked if he won. At most, I will have 1 Pettis lineup, but I am leaning towards a full fade right now.
Winner – Stephen Thompson via 2nd round (T)KO
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*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
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