Welcome back after a short break. I hope you are ready for a nice run of events for the next few months. We had a ton of members crush it last card to start off 2019 and we are looking to keep that rolling this Saturday night. We have some interesting match ups and odds this week which, makes building a cash lineup not as cut and dry as most weeks. I still like cash games as always but, you just need to be willing to take some educated risks. For that reason I really like Single Entry and Tournaments this week as well.
We have been on a huge run in all sports at DFS Army! Especially in NBA as you can see below! If you want to join in on the winning use promo code “FORSLUND” to save 10% on your membership.
As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on Draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC On ESPN+ 2 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on the card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight but, at least 1 of them is under this group.
Bibulatov (-360) 9.4k vs Bontorin (+300) 6.8k
Bibulatov is an athletic fighter and is a decent striker who, lands at a clip of 3.37 Significant Strikers (SS’s) per minute. He is a good wrestler and has solid takedowns (TD’s). Bontorin is making his UFC debut in this match up. He is decent all-around and is tough. He is an ok striker and has good power. He is decent on the ground and has ok submissions.
Looking at the odds in Vegas they lean on this fight going to decision (-170). In this scenerio Bibulatov being the likely winner (-128 to win via decision).
In cash games I am personally locking Bibulatov in my lineup. Our DFS Army exclusive Research Station has him popping off as the 2nd best value on the entire card. I am not going to overthink this one. In a decision win he is most likely going to have a couple TD’s as well as some advances. For this reason I think he also makes for a solid play in tournaments. Bontorin doesn’t interest me much here and I will most likely be fading him. Overall my preferred play is Bibulatov in all formats.
Souza (-225) 9.1k vs Frota (+185) 7.1k
Souza is a good striker and has solid kicks. She has solid TD’s and good Jiu Jitsu. Frota is an ok striker and has decent power. She has shown in the past to be susceptible to the TD.
Vegas likes this one to end Inside The Distance (ITD) with a finishing prop of (-165). Souza has the edge if it goes this route with an ITD prop of (+155).
Souza is another fighter I am looking to get in my cash lineup. She has faced much better competition and I love the upside she has through her wrestling and TD’s. If you are building more than 20+ lineups though, I don’t hate the idea of using Frota in 1-2. This is MMA and anything can happen. The most likely outcome is Souza wins in dominate fashion. My preferred play is Souza in all formats.
Moicano (-145) 8.3k vs Aldo (+125) 7.9k
Moicano is a solid striker (5.71 SS’s per minute) and has good leg kicks. He has decent TD’s (1.27 per fight) and solid cardio. Aldo is a solid striker (3.51 SS’s per minute) and has solid leg kicks. It does raise some red flags that he has taken a lot of damage throughout his career.
Vegas is siding with this fight going to decision (-195). With both fighters carrying props of (Moicano +255 and Aldo +164) to win via decision.
I am personally leaning on this fight ending ITD.
Looking at the numbers above from our Research Station it agrees with me as well. I just feel Moicano will be the fresher fighter the longer this fight goes plus he has the upside to get a finish. I think Moicano is playable in all formats. I will have some exposure to Aldo in tournaments as a hedge off my exposure to my cash lineup and tournanent lineups with Moicano (thinking I will be around the 10-20% range). Overall my preferred play is Moicano.
Ramos (-145) 8k vs Nurmagomedov (+125) 8.2k
Ramos is a solid striker (3.36 SS’s per minute) and has good Jiu Jitsu. He has ok TD’s (1.43 per fight) and decent submissions. Nurmagomedov is moving up a weightclass for this fight. He is a decent striker (4.33 SS’s per minute) and has solid power. He has decent TD’s (1 per fight) and ok cardio.
Vegas fully expects this fight to go to the judhrd3 score cards (-195 to end via dec). In this scenerio they see Nurmagomedov being the winner (+176 to win via dec).
Just looking at the fighters salaries on draftkings compared to the odds you can tell Ramos is the value play. In cash games I am most likely taking that value. What’s interesting is when you look at the fighters odds to end ITD (Ramos +238 and Nurmagomedov +650) Ramos has the clear advantage. I am going to assume Nurmagomedov will be more popular just because of his name and casuals assuming he is just as dominant as Khabib (no relation to him at all). For those reasons while I will have exposure to both in tournaments Ramos will be my preferred play. Not a fight I will have 100% exposure to but, a decent fight to target. Overall my preferred play is Ramos.
Hernandez (-150) 8.9k vs Perez (+130) 7.3k
Hernandez is making his UFC debut here and comes in with a record of 6-0. He is an ok striker and has solid power. He is definitely getting a step up in competition here. Perez is a decent striker (2.55 SS’s per minute) and has good kicks. He is decent on the ground (1.31 TD’s per fight) and is just tough in general.
Most will see the ITD prop of (-150) and assume this means a quick finish. But, looking closer Vegas has the over 2 1/2 Rd prop at (-120). What does that mean for our Draftkings lineups? Let’s see what our Research Station thinks.
With this fight most likely going into the later rounds that turns me off of Hernandez at his draftkings salary of 8.9k. He will most likely need an early finish and there are other fighters a like above and below him more. Perez I think makes for a solid cash and tournament punt. He doesn’t need to do much to payoff his 7.3k price tag and I think he is very live to get the win here. My preferred play is Perez.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Oliveira (-120) 8.5k vs Teymur (+100) 7.7k
Oliveira is a good striker (3.01 SS’s per minute) and is a solid grappler (2.95 TD’s per fight). He also has very, good submissions. The only concern with him is when he’s on he is a grappling machine but, if he can’t get the fight to the ground he can get frustrated and get finished. Teymur is good striker (4.72 SS’s per minute and has decent TD’s (1.04 per fight). He is quick and has decent combos.
Vegas is on the side of this fight ending ITD (-205) and in this upcoming leaning towards Oliveira being the victor (+142).
Looking at our Research Station Oliveria is coming in as the 5th best value play on the card but, draftkings has him priced as the 9th most expensive fighter. If you don’t mind taking a stand and assuming we get the focused and elite grappling Olivera he makes for a solid play on paper. In fact just going off the numbers he makes for a solid play in all formats. Even if I don’t use him in my cash lineup he makes for a solid play in tournaments. On the other side of this matchup Teymur makes for a solid play as well. In general this is a fight I will have plenty of exposure to (probably 100%). I am personally going to lean with Olivera in this match up.
Griffin (-200) 9k vs Alves (+170) 7.2k
Griffin is a decent striker (3.45 SS’s per minute) and has solid power. Alves is an ok striker (3.61 SS’s per minute) and a decent grappler.
This is a fight Vegas leans is going to a decision (-165) and Griffin being the benefactor (+152 to win via dec).
Just going off our projections from the Research Station that score isn’t going to cut it for Griffin in any format. This more than likely will have me more than likely fading Griffin in all formats. Alves intrigues me as a cash and tournament punt. We need to get exposure to some dogs on this card and he can be thrown in the mix. I won’t have heavy exposure to him (no more than 20-30%. Griffin probably wins this fight but, the better draftkings play is Alves.
Albini (-120) 8.1k vs Rozenstruik (+100) 8.1k
Albini is decent in the clinch and has ok TD’s. He is an ok striker (4.03 SS’s per minute) and has decent Muay Thai. Rozenstruik is making his UFC debut and comes in with a record of 6-0. He is a solid striker and has good power. He does appear to be lacking with his ground game.
Vegas likes this 1 to end early with an ITD prop of (-240). Each fighter carries a decent finishing prop themselves of (Albini +174 and Rozenstruik +170).
I am going to side with the hometown favorite in Albini. I think he should be able to get this fight to the ground and control this fight. I also think Albini could low owned since he has lost his last 2 fights. He very well could be fighting to stay in the UFC. All of these things point me in the direction of favoring Albini in this match up. I will have exposure to both but, my preferred play is Albini.
Walker (-210) 9.2k vs Ledet (+175) 7k
Walker is an aggressive fighter and is a solid striker (5.13 SS’s per minute). He is solid in the clinch and has good elbows. Ledet is a decent striker (3.47 SS’s per minute) and has a solid jab.
Vegas expects this fight to end early with a finishing prop of (-165 to end ITD). Walker being the winner in this scenerio (+130 to win ITD).
The big question surrounding Walker is can he pay off his expensive price tag on draftkings. Let’s let the Research Station crunch the numbers for us.
He very well could. Granted I do prefer Bibulatov and Souza more. He does make for a solid pivot off of either one of them. I am not comfortable with him in cash personally. I don’t have a ton of interest in Ledet unless I am maxing out 1 of the 150 max contests. In closing my preffered play is Walker.
Freitas (-125) 8.4k vs Colares (+105) 7.8k
Both fighters are making their UFC debuts in this one. Freitas is a good striker and has ok TD’s. Colares is a decent wrestler and has a blackbelt in Jiu Jitsu.
This fight carries an ITD prop of (-135). I don’t have a strong lean on this fight. I will most likely just have equal exposure to both fighters in tournaments. If you are only running 10 or less this fight can even be faded if you choose to. Overall q fight I will have minimal exposure to.
Moraes (-165) 8.8k vs Assuncao (+145) 7.4k
Moraes is a solid striker (3.25 SS’s per minute) and has solid power. Assuncao is a solid striker (3.38 SS’s per minute) and has good power.
Vegas is leaning on this 5 round main event to go to decision (-180). Both fighters carry props of (Moraes +155 and Assuncao +264) to win via decision.
It seems weird writing the main event at the end here. Unlike most weeks I don’t see any merit to stacking this fight in cash games. In fact you don’t even need 100% exposure to this one in tournaments. In cash games if I play either of these 2 it will be Assuncao. He is the cheaper fighter and in a 5 round fight he has a fairly safe floor. In tournaments I will get exposure to both. Assuncao will probably be my preferred play because he is cheaper and I think other fighter have more upside around Moraes. In general not a bad idea to have less exposure than you typically do for a main event.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
Santos (-165) 8.6k vs Borella (+145) 7.6k
This fight has the highest decision prop on the entire card (-205). If I had to pick a winner it would be Santos. Not likely a fight I will have exposure to since I am not doing more than 20+ lineups.
Maia (-175) 8.7k vs Good (+155) 7.5k
Maia often times limits opponents upside and scoring in general on draftkings with the way he fights. He is an elite grappler and if he gets his opponent down they most likely aren’t getting up the remainder of the round. I don’t hate Maia as a play just be aware he will need to get a submission to put up a solid score.
If any of my thoughts change I will post them in chat. Also we are introducing a new feature for our VIP’s where we will have all our thoughts up-to-the-minute in 1 spot.
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