Good morning to you beautiful people out there in DFS land! You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army. I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2018-2019 CBB season! Remember, if I mention a player as a cash game play they most likely are OK for GPP play. Let’s take a look at what games are on the slate for DraftKings and Fanduel. The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.
Buffalo (84) vs Kent St (75) — DK Only
Michigan (66) vs Indiana (63)
Butler (77) vs Creighton (79)
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BUFFALO vs KENT ST — DK Only
CASH: Massinburg, A.Williams, J.Avery
GPP: J.Harris (Near cash), Perkins, Graves, Jordan, Caruthers, McRae (Dart), J.Walker, Whittington, Williamson, Frederick, Roberts
FADE: Peterson
INJURY: Duling (Questionable)
This game makes sense to me for stacking purposes. KenPom has the total projected at 159 points, which is the highest of the 3 games. The general public will be higher on the Butler-Creighton game so a game stack here will be lower owned than it should be. With that said, we definitely need exposure to Buffalo in every lineup.
For Buffalo, we want to attack Kent St with guys that knock down 3’s, attack the offensive glass, share the basketball and block shots. Kent St isn’t all that good at defending the 2 either. Harris has been my preferred play all season long and probably is in this game, even though he isn’t quite as safe as Massinburg is. Perkins hasn’t really flashed big-time upside lately so I may end up fading him in this spot. I think Graves, Jordan, and Caruthers are guys you can kind of just plug in and hope they hit their ceiling.
For Kent St, the team runs through J.Walker. While I think he has big upside, I worry about Buffalo trying to take him away on the offensive end. Williams seems to be pretty safe for the mid to upper 20s in terms of DFS points and Avery has a lower floor than you would normally like for cash, but he is basically going to play the entire game. Whittington and Williamson are interesting GPP plays who could find themselves in foul trouble at some point. I actually am intrigued by both Frederick and Roberts for GPPs. Frederick has shown big ability when he gets minutes behind Whittington and Roberts has had some impressive performances as well. This team has a lot of volatility amongst its secondary pieces, however, these guys have all shown to have GPP winning type upside.
MICHIGAN vs INDIANA
CASH: Simpson, Teske, J.Morgan
GPP: Matthews, Poole, Brazdeikis, Livers, Langford, Phinisee, J.Smith (Near cash), Durham (Near cash), McRoberts (Dart)
FADE:
INJURY: D.Green (Doubtful), D.Davis (Out)
This game is going to be pretty blah from a DFS standpoint. I am going to enjoy watching it as the crowd should be electric for the Hoosiers as they NEED a W in this one. There is a good chance this game goes under its projected total.
For Michigan, we want to attack Indiana with point guards and bigs. Indiana allows a TON of rebounds and turns the ball over via steals quite frequently. They also allow teams to score over 54% of their points from 2 in conference play. I really love the way Teske has been playing so he will certainly find his way on a number of my teams. Simpson has been extremely solid nearly all season long. Matthews had the big game the first time these two teams met. I will most likely be off of Poole as he has struggled lately. I will be underweight on Brazdeikis as I expect him to be somewhat popular after his big game. Livers is an interesting GPP play if you think Teske or Brazdeikis deal with some foul issues.
For Indiana, this is a very tough match-up as Michigan is one of the top defensive teams in the country. Michigan does allow teams to grab defensive rebounds while they also allow over 61% of the points against them in conference play to come from 2. I really LOVE Morgan in this game as I have been targeting Michigan with bigs at pretty low ownership nearly all season long. He went for 34.5 DK and 31.6 FD points the first match-up. Green is most likely out due to a suspension and that opens up all the minutes for Phinisee. He is not very efficient but from pure volume of minutes, he should be considered for GPP purposes. Smith and Durham intrigue me a lot just based on their value price points and their general upside.
BUTLER vs CREIGHTON
CASH: Baldwin, Tucker, Alexander, Krameplj
GPP: McDermott (Near cash), Thompson, Brunk, Fowler, Ballock, Zegarowski (Near cash), Mintz (Near cash), Froling (Dart)
FADE: Jorgensen, Baddley
INJURY: Jefferson (Out), Epperson (Out)
This game has cash games written all over it. I seriously could see 7 guys being rostered for cash in this game. The first time these two teams met, 153 points were put on the scoreboard.
For Butler, I think it all comes down to Baldwin and Tucker. The way to attack Creighton is really everywhere. They allow teams to make over 43% of their 3s in conference play, while also allowing 2s to be made at a 54% clip. You can attack the glass as well as rack up blocked shots against the Blue Jays. I want all of the Baldwin and Tucker exposure. Tucker had a let down the last game and some may be afraid to go back after they see he received a price increase. I think McDermott is very much in play at his price while also believing that either Brunk or Fowler has a chance to cross the 20 fantasy point mark.
For Creighton, they can attack Butler from 2 and the FT line. They will also be able to pick up blocks and assists in this match-up. Much like with Butler, I want all of Alexander and Krampelj in this game. I think Ballock is a really interesting GPP play while Zegarowski and Mintz make really solid plays that could find their ways into cash lineups. Froling is a dart play that I do not think I will be using but he is coming off of an excellent game.
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Make sure you tune in to the slack channel to get my breakdown of each match-up! We will be discussing CBB all afternoon and evening long. I will be posting the breakdowns shortly and we will discuss what injuries we need to monitor and what they mean to our construction. I will also be posting my cores for each site in slack!
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