Good morning to you beautiful people out there in DFS land! You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army. I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2018-2019 CBB season! Remember, if I mention a player as a cash game play they most likely are OK for GPP play. Let’s take a look at what games are on the slate for DraftKings and Fanduel. The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.
SMU (74) vs Tulane (66)
Buffalo (77) vs Eastern Michigan (67)
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SMU vs TULANE
SMU travels to take on a very bad Tulane squad in what should be a pretty boring game. To see that SMU isn’t projected to absolutely destroy Tulane is shocking. The way for SMU to attack Tulane is, well, everything. Tulane turns the ball over a ton while never forcing any turnovers. They get absolutely destroyed on both the offensive and defensive glass. SMU is an extremely efficient and effective offense that dominates the offensive glass while shooting an effective FG % of 53.9. On defense, SMU is at their best while blocking shots and picking up steals. They can be beaten by the 3 at times as over 36% of the points they allow come from 3s. Tulane’s offense is pretty bad, but they do get to the FT line quite a bit even though they shoot it pretty badly. The one nice thing for Tulane is that they share the ball pretty well as they pick up an assist on 57% of their made shots.
For SMU I am looking at Ethan Chargois as my favorite option as he checks the most boxes for me in this match-up. Chargois is a monster on the offensive glass while picking up blocks and steals at a combined 7% rate. To go with Chargois, I have interest in Mike and Hunt down low for SMU. I will have shares of McMurray, Whitt, and Foster as well thanks to such a tight rotation. I will consider Dixon as a punt on DK thanks to his $3900 price point and his 3-point shooting ability. I am higher on McMurray for DK thanks to his 3-point shooting.
For Tulane, I do have some interest in a few players even though the team does suck. Caleb Daniels has the second highest shot rate on the team to go with the highest effective FG%. He seems like somebody that isn’t going to hurt you, but he probably won’t go for more than 5x. Sehic is probably my favorite GPP play from this team as he has a pretty low floor but has shown monster upside. I prefer to use Cornish on DK thanks to his 3-point shooting. I am fine with him on both sites as his price tags are palatable. Barrett is somebody I see myself plugging in as a punt thanks to his minutes. He has a pretty low floor that seems to hit more than anything near his ceiling, but on a short slate, we have to use the value options that are there. Guys like Crabtree, Zhang, and Koka are just darts for me.
BUFFALO vs EASTERN MICHIGAN
Thankfully for this slate, the two top teams are on the road as this slate would be pretty worrisome to play if they were at home. Buffalo is far and away the better team here. The ways for Buffalo to attack EMU are on the offensive glass, from 2, from 3, with blocks and steal. Buffalo shoots the 3-ball pretty well and are very strong at attacking the offensive glass. Over 36% of their points come from 3. On defense, they do block nearly 14% of shots taken against them. EMU’s offense is pretty easy to project as they are one of the worst in the country at shooting the 3, so over 60% of their points come from the 2. They do an excellent job of getting to the offensive glass, even though they are really bad at defensive rebounding. They play an active defense that leads to a high rate of blocks and steals. The way to score against Buffalo is from 2, while Buffalo is susceptible to both offensive rebounds and blocked shots.
For Buffalo, my favorite option is Jeremy Harris, especially at his discount off of Massinburg on DK. He has the highest usage rate of the normal minute getters on this team and has actually taken the most 3’s, which I thought was shocking. Massinburg is definitely in play for me on both sites, but I do prefer him on FD. Perkins is the guy that should win somebody a GPP tonight as he has the upside needed and should pick up a handful of offensive rebounds and put backs. Jordan and Graves are priced similarly on each site and I would prefer to pay for Jordan over Graves. I am very much considering Caruthers in this game as he has played 30 minutes in the last two games. His $4500 price tag on DK is extremely tempting.
For EMU, James Thompson IV is the best way to get a piece of their 2 point shooting, offensive rebounds, and blocks. Toure is another one that fits those categories, but he isn’t the player Thompson is and experiences more foul trouble. Minnie is the DK safe play from EMU as he is solid and shouldn’t hurt you in this one. I like Jackson‘s upside on DK as EMU is going to need him to be making his perimeter shots if Thompson is going to have any room to work in the lane. Groce is priced too low on both sites, especially DK, and should be in consideration as one of your punt options. McAdoo and Parris are just dart throw options in what could turn into a blowout.
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Make sure you tune in to the slack channel to get my breakdown of each match-up! We will be discussing CBB all afternoon and evening long. I will be posting the breakdowns shortly and we will discuss what injuries we need to monitor and what they mean to our construction. I will also be posting my cores for each site in slack!
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