BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC on ESPN+ 2 Location – Fortaleza, Brazil
Thanks for purchasing my UFC on ESPN+ 2 DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Brazil for UFC on ESPN+ 2. DraftKings changed up their contests a bit and the main GPP is now a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place. They also announced a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers so be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP contests personally and I will be taking my normal 20 or so shots at that $25k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a good amount of play into cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, let’s break down these UFC on ESPN fights and hopefully, I can help you build some winning lineups:
Magomed Bibulatov $9,400 vs Rogerio Bontorin $6,800
Magomed Bibulatov
Age: 30
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: 65”
Gym: Berkut FC
From: Russia
UFC Record: 1–1
Fight Matrix: NR(Inactivity)
Last Fought: 1 Year 4 Months
Last Five: 4–
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -470
Magomed Bibulatov is making his return after a year + long layoff. He is trying to bounce back from his first career loss & a pretty vicious knockout at the hands of John Moraga. He will be facing Rogerio Bontorin who will be making his UFC debut in his home country. Bibulatov was a highly touted prospect, but his stock took a tumble after his first loss. He hasn’t fought since last October & his name doesn’t have the same buzz connected to it that it used to. He needs to have a dominant performance here and prove that the loss was just a stumble on his way towards the top. He is a great athlete & well-rounded fighter. He has a wide karate stance & very active front leg. He uses leg kicks, a front leg side kick & jabs to push opponents back and own the center. He will throw a lot of rear leg body & head kicks as well and likes to throw a lot of kicks. He has nice footwork & head movement, and always stays very balanced. He has ok hands, he has a fast jab both to the head & the body. He will throw a check left hook straight right hand. He has a good Superman punch & throws a lot of spins. He has good spinning back fists, but his spinning back kicks to the body & head are the most impressive. They are very fast with little wind up. He doesn’t have big power with only 2 KO/TKOs, but he throws a lot of volume. He has shown a good chin in his career, but he did get knocked out in his last match.
Bibulatov is an excellent grappler, and a high-level wrestler. He is strong in the clinch & does a great job of disengaging, and he doesn’t spend much time in the clinch. He has great reactive double legs & he will get some elevation and dump opponents. He does a good job of getting a single, pushing it to the cage and turning it into a double. On top he is a mailer & will stay in opponent’s guards & rain down big elbows. He does a great job of faking level changes & coming up with uppercuts and step in knees & then right into doubles. He should use his wrestling to keep this fight on the feet in this match, where he has an advantage on the feet. He should use his kicks to keep Rogerio on the outside & then throw straight punches when he tries to close the distance. He can take him down at the end of rounds, but even that shouldn’t be necessary if he has a good striking performance. He has great cardio. He does have 5 submissions himself, and I imagine would be very hard to submit.
Rogério Bontorin
Age: 26
Height: 5’5
Weight: 125
Reach: N/A
Gym: Gile Ribeiro Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 32
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: +375
Bontorin looks to be a pretty big physical FLW with good grappling skills. He is a forward pressure fighter with a decent jab & good straight right hand. He will throw hard leg kicks. His lead right hook is powerful & he can hurt opponents with it. He throws a lot of overhands & hooks to close the distance & get the clinch. He is a super tough fighter, & when he gets hurt he will go to war. He got rocked badly in his Dana White contender fight, and almost finished, but was able to clinch up a bit & then wing some big return shots and survived. Overall his striking is a means to an end still, and he uses it to close the distance more often than not. He has 2 TKOs in his career & isn’t a big threat to get a standing knock out. He has never been finished with strikes.
Rogerio is a very strong grappler & imposes his will on opponents. In the clinch he is very strong & he is able to control opponents against the cage while looking for body locks. He does an excellent job of getting into the Muay Thai plum clinch & landing hard knees to the head. He has good slams if he can circle to the back on the feet and will just bull his opponents over if he can get double under hooks. On top he is a back taking specialist, he is always looking to take the back. He has good ground & pound on top, but he is always submission over damage. He has great takedown defense and will make fighters pay when they try to take him down. He has good elbows to the head when opponents attempt double legs & he also will throw a pretty nasty jumping knee when opponents try single legs. He has 7 rear naked chokes, 3 arm bars & a heel hook. He has 11 submissions and finished 13 out of his 14 wins. His lone loss was via submission to UFC veteran Michinora Tanaka. For Bontorin to be successful, he needs to use head movement hooks & overhands to get inside and past Bibulatov’s kicking range. He needs to throw combinations, get Bibulatov on the back foot & ultimately getting in top position would be ideal.
I think the line looks right on this one and Bibulatov should be a sizeable favorite in this matchup. On the feet I don’t see this fight being close and I think Bibulatov should dominate. I think he could land takedowns as well, but it will be more dangerous on the mat, so I think he just keeps it on the feet. The issue with him is that he is the most expensive fighter on the card and with him going against a grappler I don’t think we get much, if any, takedowns/advance points. I don’t see him paying off that salary in a 3 round striking match at his pace of 3.37 sig strikes landed per minute so I think we are relying on a finish from him to score highly. His ITD line is only +214 so I don’t want to rely on the finish if I am paying that $9.4k price tag. I think he is an easy win and one of the safest picks on the card, but I don’t see him getting over 10x without a KO.
On DraftKings, Bibulatov is my preferred play of the two, but I will not be heavily exposed to him and if I was just making 1-5 lineups I would just fade him altogether. I will be full fading Bontorin because I don’t see him getting the win, but if you are making over 20 lineups then maybe he is worth a shot or two. He is fighting in his home country and I like targeting Brazilians in Brazil, but this is not one of those spots I am targeting the Brazilian. I am sure Bibulatov makes my player pool, but I will probably be underweight to the field personally. I also usually like targeting these heavy favorites in cash games but I am not even sure he makes my cash lineup either. I do like him more for cash than GPP though.
Winner – Magomed Bibulatov via Unanimous Decision
Said Nurmagomedov $8,200 vs Ricardo Ramos $8,000
Said Nurmagomedov
Age: 26
Height: 5’8
Weight: 135
Reach: 70”
Gym: DagFighter
From: Russia
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 53
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +120
This is an awesome fight. Both fighters are high octane strikers & plus athletes. They both had razor close decision victories in their last matches, that could have gone either way. Said Nurmagomedov’s fight with Justin Scoggins I would go as far to call it a robbery. He is making the move up to 135 lbs after his first UFC fight was at FLW. He seemed kind of slow at FLW, so I think this is a good choice to move up. Said is a flashy striker, with a strong wrestling base. Said has a good one two, and a quick jab. His counter left hook is nice, and he has a good rear uppercut. He throws a lot of front kicks to the legs & body. He likes to follow his one twos with a question mark or rear leg head kick. His overhand right is very accurate. He likes to close the distance with straight punches & then land knees to the body. He will switch stances & throw front kicks with both legs. He has nice spinning kicks to the body & head. He will throw jump knees to the head. He is a bit plodding, but I feel he will be able to cut opponents off easier at 135. He was over extending on his punches against Scoggins & got dropped with a couple counters. He isn’t a power striker & relies more on volume and landing flashy strikes to wow the crowd & judges. He has two KO/TKOs in his career. He has never been finished with strikes & I feel he is durable, but he was hurt a couple times in his last match.
Nurmagomedov is a strong wrestler & he does a good job of using takedown attempts to set up strikes. He will shoot a single leg takedown & if it’s defended will control a wrist, throw a left hook & will also throw spinning back fists. He has fast shots & good singles & double legs. His length gave him an advantage to get his hands connected & easy takedowns at 125. He will shoot double legs & get double under hooks, push opponents to the cage and land knees to the body. On top he has good control, but he wasn’t able to pass the guard of Justin Scoggins. He did land some nice punches & elbows to the head and some shoulder shrugs to the head. He has great cardio & will continue to press forward and try to win the fight for the entire 15 minutes. He was a step behind all night in his UFC debut, but his constant pressure gave him the nod at the hands of the judges. He isn’t a huge submission threat & he only has three submissions in his career. He has never been submitted himself. Said Nurmagomedov should look to move early, force Ramos to walk him down, move and counter. If he can pick at Ramos with kicks from the outside, jabs & long punches, grab him and try to take him down when he closes the distance, and out volume Ramos that’s the route he should take. As Ramos slows, Nurmagomedov san start to move forward more & take over the match.
Ricardo Ramos
Age: 23
Height: 5’9
Weight: 135
Reach: 72”
Gym: Ed Lutas Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 3-0
Fight Matrix: 48
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: -140
Ricardo Ramos is a young 23-year-old fighter who is 3-0 so far in his UFC career. He has taken out some solid opponents & flashed huge potential. He is a fantastic athlete, with good striking & elite jiu-jitsu. Ramos has nice outside leg kicks. He will throw the occasional jab & one two. His one-two & counter left hook looked much better in his last match. His hands looked much better & he was letting them go more. He was ripping the body with hooks in close range & throwing tight left hooks. He has a nice rear uppercut. His check left hook is accurate. He will throw an overhand right, as well. He likes to throw a jab to a roundhouse or question mark head kick. He will throw front kicks & round kicks to the body. He has a nice step in knee to the body also. He will throw spinning kicks to the body. He throws nasty spinning back elbows to the head & he had a knock out of the year candidate with one in 2017. He doesn’t throw much volume & unless he addresses that I see him being in a lot of close fights unless he can find finishes. He did improve a bit with his volume in his last match & at 23 years old should definitely show big advancements every time out. He has two KO/TKOs in his career & never been finished with strikes.
Ramos is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu champion & very dangerous with submissions in both top & bottom position. He is a huge BW & will definitely have a size advantage against Nurmagomedov. Ramos likes to fake level changes & come up with rear uppercuts and spinning back elbows. He is strong in the clinch with knees to the body and has a good body lock takedown. His takedown defense is very strong & he has an excellent get up game. He will bounce right back to his feet & is extremely hard to control on the mat. He will also attack immediately with submissions & try to create scrambles. He has super-fast hips, great arm bars & triangles, along with nice leg locks. In his guard he will try to trap an arm, attack with hard elbows and then look for submissions. Kang was able to control him with heavy pressure in his guard and landed a few nice elbows. Ramos was able to eventually attack with a knee bar, almost got the finish but used it to sweep. He wasn’t able to do much in top position with Kang & couldn’t really control him on the mat. Ramos isn’t a super active wrestler, but he will shoot double legs when opponents are near the cage & decent reactive doubles. He also has good body lock trips. On top he likes to get to the back & get rear naked chokes. He tends to slow down in round 3, and not throw as much. He does have 2 third round finishes including one in the UFC where he was down 20-18. He has 6 submissions in his career & was submitted in his only career loss. Ramos needs to go first walk Said down, back him towards the cage and let his hands go. If he can use his leg kick to slow the movement of Said, he will have an easier time walking him down. He needs to also throw more feints & fakes in this match and try to draw out the strikes of Said & counter or just set his own up better.
This is one of my favorite fights on the card from a matchup standpoint, but one I don’t think we have to be heavily exposed to on DraftKings. Both guys are solid prospects and I think they matchup really well against each other. The line on this fight has flipped so we are getting some odds value now with Ramos being a -140 favorite, but the cheaper guy on DK at $8k. In general, I do like siding with line value like that, especially in cash. I think in GPPs it is smart to go the other way a lot of times because the ownership should be lower on the guy with the higher salary. However, I am going to side with the line value in this spot for all formats because I am more impressed with what I have seen from Ramos and I think he has the better shot at a finish. Ramos’ ITD line is +238 compared to Nurmagomedov’s +650, and I also don’t see Nurmagomedov landing many takedowns, if any. If Nurmagomedov wins, I think it will be from a decision win with him striking at the high pace and maybe controlling the octagon more. I think Ramos can win by KO, sub, or decision. He is also the Brazilian in Brazil. I think Ramos gets a win here, but I think it will be a close fight and maybe the Brazilian judging is what it comes down to.
On DraftKings, Ramos is my preferred play. I think the Nurmagomedov name alone could gain extra ownership, so I might full fade him completely in this spot, but Ramos will for sure make my player pool. He won’t be a guy I am super overweight on, but I think he is a great cash option with the line value and I want to be in line with the field if not slightly overweight in GPPs. I think Ramos can win this fight on the feet, but I also think he will be able to land a couple takedowns which should help him win rounds. If this does go to a decision and it’s a close fight, I have a hard time seeing the judges give it to the Russian.
Winner – Ricardo Ramos via Unanimous Decision
Geraldo De Freitas $8,400 vs Felipe Colares $7,800
Geraldo de Freitas
Age: 27
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: N/A
Gym: Brazilian Top Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 97
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: -130
Two Brazilian newcomers are set to go at it in their home country. This fight is on relatively short notice, so it will be 2 BWs fighting at FW. It is tough to find much recent footage of De Freitas, but he looks like a good prospect. In the highlights of his most recent fights he does seem to have majorly improved on the feet. He is light on his feet & very good in & out. He has a nice jab, and a good straight right hand. He has good leg kicks. He is very aggressive and likes to walk opponents down. He will slip the jab & counter with a straight left hand right hook or overhand right combination. He will close the distance with straight punch combinations with both hands and throw hard hooks when he gets inside. He has a good chin, and when he gets hurt he will swarm, and make it a war. He has 4 KO/TKOs, and never been finished by strikes.
De Freitas is a strong wrestler, with good timing on his takedown attempts. He does a good job of punching his way into the clinch, where he has strong knees to the body & head. He has good body lock takedowns & reactive double legs. On top he has good top control & strong ground and pound. He is active with submission attempts, especially off his back. He can shoot from too far outside at times & end up on his back. He also can flop to his back at times in wrestling scrambles, which isn’t the smartest game plan. He will attack with triangles & arm bars and has good leg locks. He will hang on to the legs too long at times & get hit with big shots. He has 5 career submissions & has never been finished by submission. He looks to be a warrior who you have to put out cold to stop from coming, along with being the more experienced fighter. He is riding a 6-fight win streak and should have a lot of confidence coming in here.
Felipe Colares
Age: 24
Height: 5’9
Weight: 145
Reach: N/A
Gym: Team Noguera
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: NR
Last Fought: 1 Year 5 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W8
Betting Odds: +110
Felipe Colares is younger at only 24 years old & undefeated at 8-0. He hasn’t fought since September 2017, and I’m not sure why. Colares looks to be a grinder. His striking looks like it’s still developing, and it’s solely to get inside & grapple. He will use a jab body kick combination, or long straight right-hand lead. He likes to throw spinning kicks to the head and is fairly explosive. He will throw front kicks to the body with both legs. He is good at slipping punches & returning with right hooks, and then other times he will slip the punch and duck under into double under hooks. He has stiff striking and keeps his chin high. He needs to make this a grappling match to have a chance at victory. He isn’t a power striker, and only has two career KO/TKOs. He is undefeated and going to come in here with full confidence.
Colares is a strong grappler, and his wrestling is where he has the biggest advantage in this match. He is very aggressive looking for takedown attempts and plays to his strengths. He has good reactive double legs, but he does a great job of ducking under getting double under hooks and working from there. He will drive fighters backs to the fence & then go for double & single leg takedowns. That’s his most effective takedown & you don’t want to be moving backwards vs Colares. On top he is very aggressive with his ground & pound. He will get good posture in guard and rain down shots until opponents create an opening for a guard pass. He will pass the legs right into side control & has a good mount take from there. Fighters are able to scramble to their feet at times when he is passing too aggressively. He is good in scrambles & will usually be the fighter who ends up in top position. Colares is active with his BJJ & has good chokes. He has good arm triangles, guillotines & rear naked chokes. He has strong cardio & can grapple for all 3 rounds. He has 5 career submissions. Colares needs to close the distance, get inside quickly & get this fight to the floor. De Freitas has shown quit and poor fight IQ, flipping to his back instead of trying to scramble on the ground & if Colares can take him down early I see him zapping him and his ground dominance becoming more pronounced as the fight goes.
This looks like it should be a fun fight for however long it lasts and it’s the hardest fight on the card for me to predict. Since the fight was put together on late notice I think that should help the chances of this fight ending ITD (-135) and that makes me want to target both sides of it. Both fighters look pretty decent from what I have seen but I don’t see either guy having any big edge wherever the fight goes. I really have zero confidence picking either guy and for that reason I am just going to side with the underdog. I am not picking many dogs on this card, so I think this is a good one to pick since the fight looks pretty 50/50 IMO.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Colares for $600 less, but this is a fight I want exposure to both sides. No casual fan has heard of either of these guys, so I don’t expect it to be highly owned, but it is one of the more likely fights to end ITD and that makes me want to be overweight on both guys. If I was making just 1 lineups I would probably stay away from this fight because I don’t feel confident putting either guy in that solo shot, but if you are multi-entering then this is a great fight to get exposure to. I don’t like this fight for cash games, but I would think I have this in about half my GPP lineups and I would lean 30% for Colares and 20% for Freitas.
Winner – Felipe Colares via Split Decision
Junior Albini $8,100 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik $8,100
Junior Albini
Age: 27
Height: 6’3
Weight: 266
Reach: 74”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 45
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: -120
Junior Albini is most likely getting his last chance to stick around in the UFC. He has lost back to back fights and was finished by an Ezekiel choke in his last match. Albini has a nice one two, and inside leg & body kick. He has a nice knee to the body to left hook combination. He likes to throw step in elbows. He will throw a straight right hand left hook combination. He doesn’t throw much & will just plod forward allowing opponents to rack up volume on him. His counter left hook is really all he will look for & he will allow his opponents to go first. He stands right in front of opponents & fighters can attack the body and hit him over the top with hooks. He does have power & is accurate when he actually let’s go with his punches. He has 6 KO/TKOs in his career & has a good chin never being finished by strikes.
Albini has not shown his grappling skills in the UFC, but he did have quite a few submissions on the regional scene. When fighters get inside on him instead of trading, he prefers to clinch up & push opponents against the cage. He has good double under hooks & he doesn’t do a lot of damage from that area, but he will attempt body lock trips. He will throw knees to the body & being 266 lbs has good control in that position. He only has 1 takedown in the UFC, and he was kind of baited into it. He body locked Alexey Oleinik right into an Ezekiel choke & was forced to tap. He does have 100% takedown defense, and I don’t anticipate this match going to the ground. Albini needs to let his hands go. He can’t let Jairzinho walk him down & dictate the pace of the fight. If he can take Jairzinho down in the clinch, I see that being a good path to victory. He hasn’t shown his grappling in the UFC, but with 6 submissions he definitely has skills on the ground. He has been submitted 3 times. He needs a win here to stay in the UFC and should have a sense of urgency.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Age: 30
Height: 6’2
Weight: 245
Reach: N/A
Gym: Fighting Titans Suriname
From: Suriname
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 122
Last Fought: 1 Month
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W6
Betting Odds: +100
Jairzinho Rozenstruik will be making his UFC debut on short notice after a 6-0 start to his MMA career. He has a few kick boxing fights as well and is predominately a stand-up fighter. He has a nice jab & good leg kick. He has a good fade away & counter left hand. He has a powerful straight right hand. He has nice front & round kicks to the body. He will let his hands go in close range, but only has average hand speed. He has a good inside leg kick left hook combination. He likes to throw an uppercut left hook combination. His leaping left hook overhand right combination is one of his best combos. He slows down very quickly as the fight goes on & becomes very hittable. He isn’t the fastest fighter to begin with, and when he gets tired he stands in front of opponents and his punches are more labored. He definitely has 1 punch knockout power & has 5 KO/TKOs in six victories all in round 1.
Jairzinho is not much of a grappler, but he isn’t bad. He won’t go for takedowns much, but he is strong in the clinch, will circle to the back & get suplex takedowns. He will shoot doubles as well. He doesn’t have great takedown defense, and when fighters get him down he doesn’t have much on the ground. In his one match that went to decision, he gave up side control & ate a lot of big elbows. He laid flat on his back & didn’t attempt to stand up or do much of anything. He was able to deny the takedown attempts in the third round, & when he sprawls and gets on top his G&P isn’t bad. He is active with it & throws with bad intentions. His cardio is questionable, and he was very tired in round 3 of his fight in Rizin. Jairzinho needs to keep this fight standing & try to land his right hand. I feel his jab & leg kicks could be a factor in this fight if it goes long. At age 30, Jairzinho needs to get going now if he wants to have any chance to get into the top 15.
I think Albini has a clear path to victory here if he takes the fight to the ground. If he can get the fight to the ground, then I think he wins with either GNP or a submission. The problem with that is that he doesn’t like taking fights to the ground often and if he wants to stand and trade in this fight he could be in trouble. Jairzinho is a solid kickboxer with heavy power and if he gets the standing fight that he wants then he could get a knockout or decision win, even in Brazil. Albini is solid on the feet as well, but he hasn’t been pulling the trigger and I think Jairzinho will be the most dangerous striker he has faced so far. I do like targeting both sides of this fight because I think both guys have 100+ point potential, but I am not confident picking either guy. So, similar to last fight, if I was just making 1 lineup I would probably avoid this fight. I also don’t like it in cash for that reason. For GPPs, this is another fight I will look to get in close to half my lineups and if you are more confident in either guy then I think you should go heavy on that person.
On DraftKings, I have no preference in this fight and I will just 50/50 any lineups I use with this fight, personally. If I make a lineup with Albini then I will just make another lineup with the same 5 fighters and throw in Jairzinho instead. I don’t want to get too risky just taking one of these guys, but if this fight is going to end up on the winning lineups then I would like to be overweight or in line with the field on both guys. This fight does have the highest line on the card for Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision at -240, so that makes me want to target it even more even knowing I will be throwing money into the pot by playing it 50/50. I have gone back and forth with my pick on this one, but I am going to change my mind one last time and I’ll take the Brazilian in Brazil.
Winner – Junior Albini via 2nd round submission
Max Griffin $9,000 vs Thiago Alves $7,200
Max Griffin
Age: 33
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 76”
Gym: MMA Gold Fight Team
From: California
UFC Record: 2-3
Fight Matrix: 41
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: -200
Max Griffin jumped into the spotlight with an upset victory over Mike Perry last year and will be looking to add another big name to his list of victories. Griffin is a powerful striker with big KO power. He has a nice jab, and good straight right hand. He will throw a one two to the head & the body and has solid hand speed. His straight right hand is very accurate & nice on the counter. He will throw front kicks & round to the body. He has strong powerful leg kicks & really hurt the leg of Mike Perry with kicks. He has good lateral footwork & will pot shot opponents from the outside keeping the volume high. He can be very aggressive & closes the distance with uppercuts, and straight punch combinations. He has a good chin & is willing to eat shots to deal out punishment at times. He had a war with Zaleski Dos Santos, where he dropped him multiple times, while almost being finished himself. He also dropped Mike Perry with a nasty jab right hook combination. He definitely has big power and can change the fight with one shot. He has 7 KO/TKOs in his career & has shown a great chin in his career just has been finished once by TKO.
Griffin is an improving grappler & showed off those skills in his last match. He fought a fighter who has major grappling deficiencies, but he was able to get a nice double leg, and control Millender on the ground for over half the round. He wasn’t able to do much. He has good duck unders into the clinch & he will throw elbows to the head. He does a good job of throwing head kicks off the break. He has questionable takedown defense, and when he gets put on his back he’s not great. He was taken down by Mike Perry & Perry was able to take the back and move into mount. He was taken down by Curtis Millender as well who is not a good grappler. I feel this will be a kick boxing match as long as someone isn’t getting pieced up on the feet. Griffin should try to use his lateral movement, straight and blitz attacks to pick off Alves and keep him on the outside. Alves tends to use a lot of big motions & wide attacks and Griffin can capitalize on that with tighter punches.
Thiago Alves
Age: 35
Height: 5’9
Weight: 170
Reach: 70”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 14-10
Fight Matrix: 60
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 1-4
Current Streak: L2
Betting Odds: +170
Alves is a UFC legend, this will be his 25th fight with the company, he has seen it all. He is only 0-1 in Brazil in his UFC career, and I’m sure he wants to get a victory in his home country before he hangs up the gloves. He is a striker who has made his career off hard leg kicks & big power in his hands. He has a nice jab & strong inside & outside leg kicks. He will throw an outside leg kick to a jab, or a double jab to a leg kick. When he finds his range & gets comfortable in the pocket, he will really start to let his hands go. He does a good job of just touching opponents, with the jab waiting for the counter & throwing a fade-away left hook. He is very accurate with it & good at slipping the return shot & landing it. He has a nice left hook straight right-hand combination. He will throw nice body kicks. He will throw occasional head kicks. He has good lateral movement & head movement at range, and when he is countering he has good defense. He will get wild & try to change the tide of the fight when he’s getting finessed from the outside, and wain in with straight punch combinations. He still has the heart to fight & win, but that’s where he becomes hittable. He is powerful & has 12 KO/TKOs, but only has one in the last 11 years. He has shown a strong chin over his career & only has been finished by strikes 3 times.
Alves is a good clinch fighter, but not much of a wrestler. He has good control & head positioning when he has opponents against the cage. He does a great job of landing elbows to the head & knees to the body. He has good body lock takedowns. On top he isn’t super dangerous, but if he can posture he has powerful ground & pound. He isn’t active with takedown attempts, but he has landed almost 70% of the takedowns he’s tried in his UFC career. He has good takedown defense, he has heavy hips and a good sprawl. He has 63% takedown defense in the UFC, and I don’t imagine Griffin can take him down like he did Millender. He isn’t a big submission threat with only 2 in his career. He has been submitted 4 times in his career. He throws a good amount of output & needs to do that once again in what I imagine will be a striking match. Alves needs to try to turn this fight into a brawl. I feel he will struggle to land punches on Griffin with his movement, and he needs to chop down Griffin’s lead leg, hamper his movement & get in the pocket and let his hands go.
This is a fight I expect to stay standing and I think the line on this fight is right. It is hard to favor Alves at this point in his career and Griffin has had a couple solid performances so far in his UFC career. Griffin is going to be the bigger guy and will have a 6-inch reach advantage in this fight and I expect him to have the power edge as well. I do think Alves is the more technical striker and is a live underdog to win this fight, but I am going to lean with Griffin to get the job done. Griffin only has 1 takedown in his UFC career, so I expect this fight to stay standing the whole time and Vegas has this fight as -165 to go to decision.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is going to be Alves at $7.2 and I think any win from him should pay that salary off. I don’t see Griffin being able to pay off his $9k price tag unless he gets a knockout and that is not something I want to rely on when I am paying that much. I think there are better plays in the $9k range so I will probably be fading Griffin personally and it will take more than 20 lineups for me to roster him. I will most likely have exposure to Alves though because I don’t like a lot of underdogs and if this fight is a close decision then maybe he gets the nod with it being in Brazil. I think he is a solid punt in cash games as well if you think he lasts all 3 rounds. I thought about picking him for the upset, but I am going to stick with Griffin as the pick and Alves as the DK play.
Winner – Max Griffin via Unanimous Decision
Taila Santos $8,600 vs Mara Romero Borella $7,600
Taila Santos
Age: 25
Height: 5’4
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: Astra Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 23
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W15
Betting Odds: -165
Woman’s flyweight is getting a great new addition to the division with 15-0 Brazilian Taila Santos. She will be taking on Mara Romero Borella, who is coming off a close decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian. Santos has only fought 2 times since August 2016, but she is coming off a win on the DWCS in August. Santos is a good striker with knock out power. She has strong leg kicks, and a fast jab. She is light on her feet & does a good job of sliding away from her opponent’s shots and countering. She will lean back and land a stiff jab or a straight right hand. She sets her leg kicks up with good fakes & feints, and really chops down on the lead leg. She has nice front kicks to the body, head and dangerous round kicks to the head. She will throw a leg kick straight right hand left hook combination. She does a great job of using defensive footwork, moving & countering. Her jab leg kicks, one two keep opponents at bay, and she’s fantastic at hitting & not getting hit. She can lean back instead of moving her feet & I feel opponents could feint & shoot takedowns and land a second or third shot in a combination. She does do a great job of using a left hook as she backs up to try to offset that from happening. She has 10 KO/TKOs in 15 wins & is undefeated so she has durability.
Santos is a strong, physical fighter for 125, with solid takedown defense. She is good in the clinch & does a great job of getting the plum clinch & landing hard knees to the body & head. She also smartly ducked under and took the back in her last match when her opponent came out desperate with heavy pressure in round 3. She had a nice body triangle and was able to control a black belt in BJJ for over 3 minutes on the ground. She has strong double leg defense, putting heavy pressure on the head and easily stuffing the takedowns. She will snap opponents down & throw hammer fists and short punches from the front headlock/wrestling ride position. She doesn’t deal with heavy pressure the best & the game plan for opponents should be to try to back her against the fence and throw combinations or go for takedowns. Santos does have 2 submissions & has finished 12 of her 15 wins overall. She hasn’t fought great competition over her career, but she did defeat a good fighter in Estéfani Almeida in her last match. Santos is going to be looking to keep this fight on the feet & strike with Borella. She has the superior hands & kicks and, in my opinion, has a major advantage in the standup. If she can use her movement to pot shot Borella from the outside, and not let her get in on the legs or back her to the cage, she should light her up at range.
Mara Romero Borella
Age: 32
Height: 5’6
Weight: 125
Reach: 67”
Gym: ATT
From: Italy
UFC Record: 1-1
Fight Matrix: 31
Last Fought: 1 Year
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +145
Mara Romero Borella is a grappler out of American Top Team, and a developing striker. She lost a split decision to Katlyn Chookagian in her last fight, who is a top 5 competitor of the division, so she proved she can compete with the top. Borella is much flatter footed than Santos and relies heavily on opponents closing the distance where she can counter. She will throw leg kicks, and a straight right hand. She will throw a straight right left hook combination. She will throw right hook leg kick combinations. She likes to close the distance with straight punch, flurries & but they are a bit sloppy. She is low output & plods into range, IMO giving Santos an easy target to hit. She isn’t super dangerous with her striking with only 3 KO/TKOs in her career. She has been finished 3 times via KO/TKO.
She likes to duck under get double under hooks & drive her opponents to the ground. She isn’t very explosive, so she doesn’t shoot many takedowns, and fighters have to close the distance for her, for her to take them down. She doesn’t have the fastest feet & has to do a lot of reaching to get into the clinch, which is easy to defend. If she can get on top, she is strong with heavy pressure. She has good pressure passes and will methodically work from half guard to mount to the back, where she has a good rear naked choke. She has 4 career submissions and been submitted 1 time in her career. She is stiff & needs to improve her footwork and work on her foot speed in order to cut opponents off. She showed a nice body lock takedown against the cage against Chookagian, but she was able to get right back to her feet. Borella needs to be very aggressive in this fight, heavy forward pressure, and constantly looking for the level change. If she can get Santos uncomfortable with pressure back her up and get her down that’s her path to victory.
I think Santos looks like the real deal on the feet, especially with her kicks and jabs. She also did alright on the ground in her Contender Series fight. I think she has the takedown defense to keep this fight standing and if that is the case I think she wins it handedly. I think Borella’s only shot in this fight is to get the fight to the ground and get a submission, or consistently get the fight to the ground and win a decision that way. If she can do either, then she will be a decent play on DK, I just don’t see that happening and I am going to lean with the striker to pick her apart for 15-minutes.
On DraftKings, this is not a great fight to target with a -205 Fight Goes To Decision line, but Santos is my preferred play of the two and the only one that will make my player pool. I think she will be solid enough to not get submitted in this fight and I think she actually has a better chance of getting a (T)KO than Borella does at getting the sub. I don’t see the KO happening, but I will roster her in the hopes that it does. I think if you are just making a couple lineups then the right move would be to fade this fight altogether, but I think Santos is in play for all formats and I don’t expect her to be highly owned. I think this fight as a whole will be low owned, but I wouldn’t’ be surprised to see Borella higher owned than Santos. This is also another one where even if it is a close fight I would expect the judges to give the nod to the Brazilian fighter, but if Santos does just win a decision then it will be hard for her to pay off her $8.6k price tag.
Winner – Taila Santos via Unanimous Decision
Anthony Hernandez $8,900 vs Markus Perez $7,300
Anthony Hernandez
Age: 25
Height: 6’0
Weight: 185
Reach: 75”
Gym: MMA Gold Team
From: California
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 114
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -160
Anthony Hernandez is a highly touted prospect coming off a win on the DWCS. He tested positive for weed forcing him to sit out for 6 months and delay his debut. He will be taking on an interesting, fun fighter in his own right in Maluku Perez. Both guys are tricky grapplers & this fight could lead to some fun scrambles on the ground. Hernandez is a developing striker but has power in his hands & is not bad when opponents allow him to come forward. He is a little flat footed, but he keeps a wide stance & does a good job of leaning back to avoid shots. He will throw a jab right hand, and his straight right hand comes fast with good power. He will close the distance with a right hook uppercut left hook combination. He will throw front kicks to the body & head, along with good round kicks to the head. He struggles with pressure & will just back up the cage and allow opponents to dictate where the fight goes. He has ok takedown defense, but he allows opponents in on his legs very easily and needs to improve on either keeping the center or lateral footwork. He will throw nice uppercuts in short range & he will swarm when he hurts opponents. He had a vicious KO in his last match on DWCS and will be looking to build off that here in Brazil. He has 2 KO/TKOs and has never been finished being undefeated at 7-0. He is very strong mentally & I feel you have to knock him out to stop him from trying to win the fight.
Hernandez is a strong grappler & very dangerous with submissions. He is long for the division & great at locking up chokes in the clinch. He has great standing guillotines & has finished more than one. He will shoot single & double legs, but his most effective takedown is the body lock clinch. He has good trips & on top he is good at doing damage with elbows & going for submissions. He is very calm on top & good at floating and keeping top position. He was caught in several leg locks against Brendan Allen & had an awesome scramble filled fight with him. He is excellent at finding the back & he can do it from many positions. He can be taken down himself and has mediocre takedown defense. I feel he doesn’t put big emphasis on it because he doesn’t mind being on his back. He is very good at using a deep half guard & finding the back or getting to top position and has very good sweeps overall. He has great cardio & you can see as the fight continues he starts to zap the energy of opponents & the scrambles become much less a factor in the fight with Hernandez keeping the more dominant position. Hernandez has 4 submissions which are all guillotine chokes. Hernandez has multiple avenues to win this fight. I feel he has the tighter technique, along with more power, he just needs to throw more volume and control the center more. I feel he can take Perez down, and grind on him and get him tired. Perez slows down in round 3, and Hernandez has great cardio and ability to scramble all night. If Hernandez can land clean I can see him KO’ing Perez, or I could see him winning a grappling heavy decision.
Markus Perez
Age: 28
Height: 6’1
Weight: 185
Reach: 73.5”
Gym: CT Viscardi Andrade
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-2
Fight Matrix: 98
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 3-2
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +140
Markus Perez is coming off a loss to Andrew Sanchez and needs to win here, having lost two of his last 3 fights. He is a fun flashy fighter who likes to be a showman in the cage, using crazy techniques, taunting, and showing a lot of emotion. Pérez likes to fight on the outside & use a lot of kicks. He will throw rear leg body kicks & occasionally go to the head. He will throw front kicks to the body & head. He will switch stances & has a nice straight left & straight right hand. His straight left hand is probably better & he spends more time in south paw. He has a decent jab left hook combination and will feint the jab and throw an overhand left combination. He has nice lead elbows & step in knees to the body. He throws a lot of wild techniques, such as spinning back elbows & round kicks to the body into spinning heel kicks to the head. He will throw up elbows into spinning back elbows. He is at his best when he gets confident & will get in the pocket & slip and rip. He allows fighters to push him back as well and can almost look like he is running away at times. His awkward striking puts him off balance & in bad positions where he could be countered. He will invite a war when he knows he’s behind & try to steal the fight. He has 3 KO/TKOs in his career. He has a good chin and is a wild man who has never been finished in his career.
Pérez is an opportunistic grappler and will jump on submissions. He isn’t a good wrestler, and he was controlled on the cage or the ground for long periods of time in both his UFC losses. In the clinch he can be outmuscled, and controlled on the cage, but he did show that if he can circle to the back he has nice slam takedowns. He doesn’t do a good job of getting his back off the cage, but he has decent defense and waits for the ref to help him out. He will even pull guard & attack with leg locks to create sweeps. He will attack with a kimura from standing position as well to counter takedown attempts. He likes to try to hit switches and take the back to counter takedown attempts as well and was able to do that and take the back of Ian Heinisch. He eventually got an arm triangle from bottom which is not something you see a lot in that match. He does a good job of getting front chokes such as darces & Peruvian neck ties and he has a good squeeze. He can be taken down & he was controlled easily by Eryk Anders. If you can pass his guard he doesn’t have a great get up game and will just lay on his back. Perez needs to move forward, crowd Hernandez and throw long kicking and punching combinations. He is the more experienced fighter, and I feel if this is a three round stand up fight with no finish Perez will probably win. If Hernandez tries to take him down he should look to counter with chokes, and submissions quickly, but if he can’t get them get back to his feet.
I will probably end up with less exposure than I should to this fight, but I do think both guys are in play. The line for Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision is -150 and that is what makes me think this is a solid fight to target. If you have a stronger lean than I do on this, then whoever you like should be in your lineups for all formats. I just don’t have a strong lean and the lean I do have is on the favorite who is priced at $8.9k. If he does win then I don’t think he is a must have at that price but at the same time he does have 100+ point upside if he can get a finish. If Perez wins at $7.3k then I do think he will be on the optimal lineup and that is what makes me want to throw him into my roster pool.
On DraftKings, Markus Perez is going to be my preferred play, but I will be rostering both guys in this matchup. I don’t care for this fight for cash games, but I think I would prefer Perez more there as well for the punt. For GPPs, I think Perez is a great pivot away from Assuncao who should be chalky, and I think he could have a higher ceiling as well. For cash, I think Assuncao is the play over Perez if it did come down to those two. I also like Hernandez for GPP because the majority of his wins have come in the 1st round and if he can score over 100 points at $8.9k then I can see him knocking off the top priced fighters and ending up in the winning lineup. This is another one of those fights where I would look to get it in about half of my lineups, but I wouldn’t feel confident enough in picking either guy in a solo lineup. For multi-entering, I think this is a great fight and I will side with the Brazilian as my preferred DK play for the price, but I am going to pick the favorite to get his hand raised.
Winner – Anthony Hernandez via Split Decision
Livia Renata Souza $9,100 vs Sarah Frota $7,100
Livia Renata Souza
Age: 27
Height: 5’5
Weight: 115
Reach: 63”
Gym: Team Vinícius Máximo
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 5 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -220
Livia Souza will be making her second appearance in the UFC, after a dominant first round finish in her debut. She has won 3 consecutive fights after a split decision loss to Angela Hill and has definitely fought the much better competition. Souza is a smaller 115 lb’er, but she also possesses big power. Souza has much better footwork, is light on her feet with good lateral and side to side movement. She does a good job of circling off the cage & back to the center, which will be key in this fight vs Frota. Souza has nice leg kicks, and nasty one-twos. She has very fast hands, and has big power, proving that with a vicious first round knockout of Ayaka Hamasaki. Her straight right hand is powerful, she will use it to close the distance where she will attack with hooks to the head & body. She likes to get inside & brawl as well, and I feel has the crisper hands in close the Frota but needs to be weary of her power. She has nasty body kicks and has finished Deanna Bennet with a liver kick who is a 125er as well. Souza will not back down when Frota starts to throw sloppy or panic and I see her being the first opponent, who could potentially expose the sloppiness in Frota’s striking. She has 2 two KO/TKOs, and never been finished in her career.
Souza is a black belt in BJJ, and very aggressive with her jiu-jitsu. She will dive on submissions, in the clinch try to get standing guillotines and just pull you down to her world. She likes to attack with leg locks off bottom. She will attack with double and single leg shots but her best takedown is her trips and judo throws. Souza fights for takedowns at times like it is life or death and will power through with hard takedowns. She will even pull guard, where she has great sweeps and good leg lock. She can get caught in the guard of her opponent like vs Angela Hill but stays active body, head and has good takedown defense. She will use hard pressure padding to get out of submissions such as arm bars. She is good at avoiding triangles and keeps good posture in the guard. Souza is much better against the cage going for takedowns and grappling transitions. She dove on a guillotine and an armbar at the end of that fight, she will attack hard and try to finish. She had good takedown defense and doesn’t even mind opponents getting on top of her if they do. She has hard ground & pound elbows & has great back takes. She got a quick rear guillotine choke victory in her last match, and when she sees an opportunity she goes for it. She has a good triangle choke, and when she gets to half guard had heavy G&P. She has 8 submissions in her career & has finished 10 of her 12 fights overall. She has great cardio and has five round championship experience. I think her body lock takedowns & double legs will be effective in this fight, and she will use her grappling a lot in this match.
Sarah Frota
Age: 31
Height: 5’6
Weight: 115
Reach: 68”
Gym: Astra Fight Team
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 0-0
Fight Matrix: 17 (SW)
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W9
Betting Odds: +180
Sarah Frota will be making her UFC debut, and getting a stiff test against Former Invicta champion, and one of my personal favorites Livia Renata Souza. Frota is a scary looking chick, she is covered in tattoos, and fits the bill of what a normal person would think a cage fighter would look. She will be making the drop down to 115 lbs, and has fought more at 135 than 115, but she doesn’t look to be a huge fighter. She is coming off a win on the DWCS at FW. She has only been a pro since 2016 and is taking a huge step up in competition. She fought the same girl two times in a row in her last two fights, and that’s the only fighter with experience she’s fought. Frota will throw inside leg kicks, and good straight right hands. Her one two is nice and she has pop in her hands. She is a come forward fighter and has gotten a little bit better with her flat-footed ness, but still spends a lot of time standing in front of opponents. She doesn’t move her head and will just come forward and wing bombs. She is very hittable, but so far in her career has been able to walk right through those shots and not be affected. She will throw occasional body kicks. Her kicks sometimes come very slow and un set up, making opponents easy to counter and or catch her kick and take her down. She is slow & I feel Souza will have a big speed advantage in this match. She is extremely confident and has that conviction that she is going to get the finish at some point in the fight regardless of how it’s going. She has two KO/TKOs including 1 in her last fight and she has finished her last three fights in the first round.
Frota is a good Jiu-Jitsu player, but not a great wrestler. She has bad takedown defense & allows fighters to get inside and get her down very easily. She has gotten most of her submissions off her back and is dangerous in the guard. She will trap a wrist, and bring her legs high, get mission control & land heavy elbows. She has a great triangle and has gotten most of her opponents with it. She has a good arm bar. She has gotten put in deep arm bar attempts but stayed calm and got out of them properly. If she can get on top she does have a rear naked choke in her career. She has 5 submissions in her career. Frota needs to try to make this fight a brawl. She needs to close the distance get inside and let her hands go. She is going to be the bigger girl, and probably have more power, but her striking is sloppy, and she stands tall, and right in front of opponents. I don’t think it’s likely she will get a submission off her back on Souza, but anything is possible.
This is a fight between two Brazilian gangsters. Souza dominated her UFC debut and Frota has a very impressive KO on the Contender Series and is now making the drop to 115 lbs. She is going to be the bigger fighter here and should have more power, but I think Souza is the pick and should be better anywhere this fight goes. I think she will be the fighter striking at the higher pace but I also think her mixing in takedowns is what gets the job done in the end. Frota is a black belt but I think Souza will be able to get takedowns and stay on top without getting submitted. I also think she can get multiple takedowns and maybe has one of the higher takedown ceilings on the card. If she is getting hit with some hard shots on the feet then I think that will be her game, but I also see her winning the fight standing as well. I don’t see a finish happening in this fight, but Vegas does with a FDGTD line of -155.
On DraftKings, I like both sides of this fight, but Souza is one of my favorite plays on the board if I can afford her at $9.1k. I think she can pay that salary off even in a decision, but she has an ITD line of +155 which is pretty solid and if she can get a finish then I think she ends up on the winning lineup. I think she is in play in all formats and I don’t see her being too highly owned either, so 30-35% should put us overweight to the field. I also want some Frota lineups as a hedge, but if I was making 10 or less lineups I would just fade her and get my leverage to Souza. I do think this will be a fun fight and I think both fighters will stick around in the UFC for a while. I will just be picking the Brazilian Gangster that looks less gangster of the two.
Winner – Livia Renata Souza via 3rd round submission
Johnny Walker $9,200 vs Justin Ledet $7,000
Johnny Walker
Age: 26
Height: 6’6
Weight: 205
Reach: 82”
Gym: AKA Thailand
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 1-0
Fight Matrix: 40
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W7
Betting Odds: -210
This is an interesting matchup. Johnny Walker burst into the scene with a devastating upset knock out of Khalil Roundtree, and he is getting a quick turnaround against Justin Ledet. Ledet is on the opposite side of the coin, he is coming off a decisive decision loss in his first fight at 205. Prior to that match he was 3-0 at HW in the UFC. Both fighters are tall, long fighters, and it will be a fun one to watch. Walker is very athletic for his size & utilizes a lot of movement and kicks. He showed much improved footwork in his last fight, showing a very wide stance, bouncing in & out, and using a lot of head movement. He throws a lot of round kicks to the body & head, and front kicks to the body. He will throw leg kicks & oblique kicks to the knees. His hands are still developing, but he will throw a one-two and has a good right hook. He does a lot of blitzing in & exiting with flashy techniques. He has nasty jumping knees to the head, and good spinning heel kicks. He will throw a straight right hand or right hook into a round kick to the head, and his kicks comes fast. He will throw axe kicks to the head. He will throw jump knees into superman punches or spinning back fists, and when he finds his range will throw in combination. He can throw kicks without setting them up at times & be countered hard with straight punches. He can stand a bit tall at times & opponents can get inside on him but was much improved with that against Rountree. He has big power & is very explosive with 12 KO/TKOs in his career. He has been finished twice by strikes.
Walker is a good grappler and uses his length to his advantage. He is very strong in the clinch & has nasty clinch knees to the head & front elbows. He finished Khalil Rountree with nasty clinch elbows in his last match. He has a very strong Muay Thai plum, and he will use it to control opponents in the clinch and move them around to create angles for shots. He will attack with guillotines from standing position. He has decent clinch takedowns, and will shoot single legs, but overall, he isn’t much of a wrestler. He did have a very explosive slam takedown of Henrique Da Silva in his DWCS match. He has good takedown defense. He has heavy hips, along with a very nice switch. He has good sweeps when fighters do get him down & on top he works quickly. He has great guard passing & will posture up and throw heavy elbows. He does a good job of taking the back & has good back control. He only has 1 submission & been submitted once himself. He did get tired in his fight against Henrique Da Silva, but he did get a second wind, and won the round. Walker needs to polish up his striking defense & not leave himself vulnerable for counter punches, because Ledet is a good boxer & can crack. He should look to try to keep Ledet on the outside with kicks, throw a lot of leg kicks & then close the distance with jump knees & head kicks. He will have an advantage in the clinch & in top position and I see him trying to use elbows from the Thai clinch again, and maybe attempting a few takedowns.
Justin Ledet
Age: 30
Height: 6’4
Weight: 205
Reach: 80”
Gym: N/A
From: Texas
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 102
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: L1
Betting Odds: +175
Justin Ledet is a very good boxer but was exposed a bit in his last fight against Aleksander Rakic. Rakic battered his front leg with low kicks and took him down & beat him up on the ground. I’m sure he is motivated to come back & make everyone forget about that performance. Both fighters are talkers in the cage & I’m sure it will be fun for as long as it lasts. Ledet is a former pro boxer and has one of the best jabs in the UFC. He will double & triple up on it, and really bloodies the face of his opponents with it. He will use a lot of feints to disguise when he is throwing his jab to set up. He has a nice straight right hand & right hook. He has a good check left hook. He will fade away and throw a left hook backing up. He is pretty one dimensional on the feet & doesn’t throw kicks or much in combination. He usually only will throw a jab or a jab hook. Ledet is very heavy on his lead leg & that’s something he needs to address, because I imagine all his opponents trying to exploit that. Rakic was able to completely nullify his lead hand. He is a coaster, someone who is fine doing enough to just win and stay slightly ahead of his opponent on points. That is a risky thing to do & we have already almost seen it come back to bite him when he won via split decision against a fighter he was clearly better than in Zu Anyanwu. He is more of a volume striker and doesn’t have big power. He only has two career TKOs. He has a great chin & will talk to opponents when they hit him to make sure they know they didn’t hurt him. He has never been finished in his career.
Ledet is well rounded and has earned a UFC submission victory. He likes to shoot takedowns when he has opponents backs near the cage & he has good double leg takedowns. He has good guard passing & likes to take the back & get rear naked chokes. He will try to take the back when opponents take him down as well. Off his back he has gotten a couple arm bars against low level competition but didn’t show much against Rakic in his last fight. He did show a good guard early, and was able to get feet on the feet on the hips & being his legs high to control posture and not allow much G&P. He will trap a wrist & attack with triangles. Ledet has 5 career submissions & never been submitted in his career. Ledet needs to fight a completely different way to beat Walker in my opinion. He needs to be aggressive & have heavy forward pressure. He needs to keep the jab in Walker’s face, back him up, and then try to counter with his straight right hand when Walker throws kicks. If he hangs around on the outside & allows Walker to throw leg kicks it will be a long night for him.
Once again, I like both fighters from this fight, but I do expect this fight to be one of the more popular fights on the card. Walker had an impressive KO in his UFC debut and I think people are going to be high on him due to the recency bias. I also think Ledet is going to be fairly popular as well because he is cheap, and Walker is unproven, so the people who are not buying the hype will be on Ledet’s side. I do think Walker has the much better chance at winning this fight ITD and that gives him the much higher ceiling IMO, but I think Ledet’s boxing will give him trouble and I don’t see him running through Ledet like he did against Roundtree. At his $9.2k price tag I think we need a finish from him to pay that off and I am not so sure that will be the case. I do think he has more potential as a MMA fighter, but Ledet has some of the best boxing at 205 lbs and he also has a number of submissions on his record as well. Just like the field, I will probably be high on this fight, but I am going to side with Walker and I don’t see me being over 50% on any of the $9k fighters, so I am not sure if I will be overweight to the field or not since I am not sure what ownership he will receive. With the lines a lot closer on this card than usual, I don’t see any fighters being over 50% or even too chalky at all, but I do think Walker could be the highest owned guy on the card.
On DraftKings, Walker is my preferred play for the ceiling, but since I don’t think he gets the KO it is going to keep my ownership down some and I will just be mixing in the $9k fighters somewhat evenly, especially with him and Souza. With Ledet, I think he does have the highest ceiling of the cheap fighters and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get a finish in this fight, so that makes me want to be overweight to him as well. This will probably be one of my highest owned fights because of the finishing potential and the -165 FDGTD line, but once again I am not confident enough in either guy to be super heavily owned to them. I do prefer this fight as more of a GPP only play, but if either guy fits in your last spot for cash then I wouldn’t talk you out of using them.
Winner – Johnny Walker via Split Decision
Charles Oliveira $8,500 vs David Teymur $7,700
Charles Oliveira
Age: 29
Height: 5’10
Weight: 155
Reach: 74”
Gym: Gold Team Texas
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 13-8-1
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 2 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -115
This is a great matchup. Both fighters are on the cusp of the top 10, and with a win are guaranteed a big fight. Charles Oliveira has literally grown up before UFC fans eyes. He has been in the UFC since 2010, and now at 29 a winner of 3 in a row he looks to truly be finding his stride. Charles Oliveira is looking to make it 4 in a row and call for a marquee opponent. He has been vocal about wanting to fight top ranked fighters, specifically a rematch with Max Holloway. Oliveira is a well-rounded fighter with good stand up skills. He is long for the division & likes to work behind a front kick to the body & straight punches on the feet. He is light on his feet and has good outside leg kicks. He has a nice uppercut to overhand right/right hook combination. He has a stinging & accurate straight right hand. He has a good check left hook. He likes to throw step in knees to the body as well as flying knees to the body & head. He has good spinning back kicks to the body & head, and he will throw jumping front kicks to the body. He will throw spinning back fists as well. He will throw round kicks to the head. He keeps a very high guard and stands tall which leaves him susceptible to body shots. He has been hurt to the body by Donald Cerrone & Anthony Pettis. Those are two of the best kickers in MMA history & I don’t think Teymur is on that level. On the feet Charles needs to have constant pressure, back Teymur up and ultimately try and get the fight to the ground. He isn’t a power striker, only having 6 KO/TKOs, and none in his 22 fight UFC career. He has a good chin, and decent durability, but he has shown quit before and has been finished by KO/TKOd 4 times.
Oliveira is the most dangerous submission artist in UFC history with UFC record 12 career submissions. Oliveira is a strong wrestler and will even pull guard to get the fight to the mat. He has excellent duck unders into the clinch and will get double under-hooks and dump his opponents. He has nasty knees in the clinch, and he likes to get the Muay Thai plum land a couple knees and jump on a guillotine. He is deceptively strong & can muscle fighters in the clinch, He is good at circling to the back and getting the standing rear naked choke or getting his hooks in and pulling his opponent into back mount. His rear naked chokes are excellent & he has an unreal squeeze. When he gets his arm under that chin his opponents are usually tapping within seconds. He has great reactive double legs, and when he gets on top he has phenomenal guard passes. He will move into mount, where he will posture up and land elbows to force opponents to give their back. If he can’t get takedowns he will attempt single legs & then pull guard. In guard he has super-fast hips and is extremely dangerous with triangles & arm bars. He has great leg locks as well and does a good job of using them to move into top position. He tends to get too aggressive at times against other elite BJJ fighters and he has been submitted a few times. He has 16 career submissions & has been submitted 3 times. Usually when he wins it’s a finish & when he loses he’s getting finished. He has decent cardio and can go all three rounds he’s a veteran. He has more UFC wins than Teymur has MMA fights. He is 13-8-1 in the UFC, with 12 finishes. He has only been to decision twice in his UFC career and is 1-1. Oliveira should have supreme confidence here, as he is 14-0 with 14 finishes in Brazil. Oliveira is going to need to crowd Teymur, heavy pressure cut the cage off, and then try to use feints fakes and long-range attacks to draw out strikes from Teymur, where he can duck under and take him down. If he can get on top of Teymur he needs to make it count and he can’t lose top position without doing damage or finishing the fight. If Oliveira can’t get this fight to the ground, he needs to make it a war. He has to get in the pocket and try to throw overhands and catch Teymur.
David Teymur
Age: 29
Height: 5’9
Weight: 155
Reach: 73”
Gym: Allstars Training Center
From: Sweden
UFC Record: 5-0
Fight Matrix: 26
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 5-0
Current Streak: W5
Betting Odds: -105
David Teymur is 5-0 in the UFC, and after a decision win over Nik Lentz, he will be trying to give another UFC veteran a loss. He has fought back to back grapplers, but they obviously don’t pose the same dangers of the all-time submission leader in UFC history. Teymur is a Muay Thai & kick boxing world champion. He is a very cool, calm, technical striker. Teymur has good lateral footwork, and inside outside leg kicks. He likes to walk opponents into his shots and is very fast when he explodes in with an attack. He likes to throw rear leg body kicks, and he has a great straight left hand. He will start off kicking low a lot to the legs & body, and as the fight continues he will start going to the head with the kicks. He will throw front kicks to the body & head also. He does a good job of countering with check right hooks, & he will throw them off the break after he defends takedown attempts to create space to circle away. He will attack the body with hooks & has a nasty step in knee to the body. His straight left hand to the body is great. He does a good job of pump faking his jab to set up his right hand to the head & body and kicks. He has a good uppercut as he steps in. He will throw nice spinning kicks to the body & head but uses them sparingly. Teymur isn’t a big power striker, but his speed & precision make him a knock out threat. He has 4 KO/TKOs in his MMA career. He has never been finished by strikes, has a good chin and is hard to hit, but he was hit a bit by Lentz, and dropped hard with an overhand by a fighter on TUF.
Teymur is an underrated grappler, as a lot of people out of the Allstars Training Center are. Teymur is very explosive & has good react double leg takedowns. He showed that off earning a couple takedowns against Lando Vanatta. He is very good in the clinch, he has nasty knees to the body and good elbows. He does a good job of defensively fighting the hands & disengaging from the clinch. He is very good at getting away landing a shot & circling back to the center of the cage. He has very good sprawls on takedown attempts, and if you do get him down he springs up like a cat & has great get ups. He was getting clipped with some shots against Nik Lentz, because he was anticipating the takedowns. He allowed Nik Lentz to get inside & hit him with a few overhands. He got his body kicks caught a couple of times, and he needs to set them up very well in this fight as to not get them caught and get taken down. No one has been able to exploit him on the ground, but if there is anyone that can it’s Charles Oliveira. He has great cardio and looks like he can go ten 5-minute rounds. He is not a submission threat and has no submissions nor has he been submitted in his career. Teymur knows what he needs to do here. He has to work his stand up, score points and avoid going to the ground with Oliveira. He needs to make this fight definitive, because in Brazil I feel when he circles away & fights in his style there could be some heavy booing which could affect judges. Teymur should look to throw a lot of low leg kicks, and then throw punch combinations into body kicks. He needs to set up shots to the body, because Do Bronx has been susceptible to that over his career. He can’t let Do Bronx get inside & get the clinch on him and needs to be in constant lateral motion never standing in front of Oliveira.
This is one of those fights that I am going to take a personal stand on, but I can see either guy getting a finish. I think Do Bronx can beat just about anybody on his best day, but I also think if he can’t get a submission then he might look for a way out and be finished himself. That makes this a great fight to target and I do expect both sides to be popular. Since I am already taking both sides of multiple close fights, I am going to lean with Do Bronx only here and I will be leaving Teymur out of my lineups. I think Bronx goes for takedowns in the first 30 seconds of this fight and on the ground this fight isn’t close at all. On the feet, Teymur does have the edge and could get a KO to the head or body but Do Bronx can keep the fight much closer on the feet than Teymur can on the ground. I also think Teymur will be one of the more popular underdogs, so I would rather just fade him and hope that 20%+ of the lineups go down with him scoring very few points.
I think if you prefer Teymur and think he gets the finish here then you can just take the opposite strategy of mine and fade Oliveira and just go overweight to David instead. My preferred play is Do Bronx and I will have him in most of my lineups, but I basically always roster him so that pick comes with some bias because he has won me a lot of money in the past. I think Bronx is capped around 100-points though with a takedown or two and a submission, but I think Teymure has 100+ upside with the knockdowns and finishing potential. I know I am taking a risk at fading him but if he was going to be low owned then I would just target both sides. I am more fading the ownership combined with my prediction of him not making it out of the 1st round. I think Do Bronx goes in there and adds to his UFC submission record and makes it 15-0 in Brazil.
Winner – Charles Oliveira via 1st round submission
Demian Maia $8,700 vs Lyman Good $7,500
Demian Maia
Age: 41
Height: 6’1
Weight: 170
Reach: 72”
Gym: Demian Maia Jiu-Jitsu/ Renzo Gracie Academy
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 19-9
Fight Matrix: 14
Last Fought: 9 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: L3
Betting Odds: -175
Demian Maia is returning after almost a year away from the octagon. He is taking a significant step down in competition, as he is coming off fighting the top 3 fighters in the division in succession. He will be taking on Lyman Good, who is getting a massive opportunity to defeat a legend in his home country. Maia will be looking to be the 4th fighter to join the “20 UFC wins club”, with a win here in Forteleza. He is a legend with a long illustrious career, but it’s definitely winding down. He has lost 3 consecutive fights and has stated that the end is near. Everyone knows what Maia is at this point, that is take opponents down, take their back & strangle them. Maia has improved his striking over the years, and the threat of the takedown always keeps his opponent guessing. Maia is a south paw striker, and he will pump out a jab followed by a left hand. He will throw a straight left hand right hook combination. He has a nice round kick to the body, and overall is a very aggressive striker. He isn’t afraid to get hit like most Jiu-Jitsu fighters, instead he wains into the fire and invites it. He does get tired quickly from striking and doesn’t have great defense. He leans into his shots making him susceptible to counters, as well as standing very heavy on his lead leg. He also doesn’t have great movement when he tires and will just defend with a high guard. He has always shown a fantastic chin, and while consistently fighting the best in the world time in & time out, he has only been KO’d one time. He isn’t a big threat to get a KO/TKO with only 3 in his career.
Demian Maia has been putting on grappling displays in the octagon since 2007. He has had some amazing performances such as his submissions of Chael Sonnen, Rick Story &, Carlos Condit. He is arguably the best BJJ practitioner to ever grace the octagon, and he has added the wrestling to go along with that. Maia has a tremendous single leg, and once he gets a hold of a fighter’s leg, it is like a death grip. He will try to dump opponents immediately, and had immense strength, especially at 170. He doesn’t mind going to his back off the single leg attempt, and this is where he is truly special. His half guard sweeps are a thing of beauty. He gets an under hook and will elevate opponents to get into a body lock or sneak out the back door & take the back. Maia is excellent at taking the back from standing position as well. He likes to shoot a single, and then dig an underhook & push his opponents to the cage to re shoot or quickly jump on the back. On top Maia is a monster, and when he takes you down you usually aren’t getting back up. He has great guard passing & works to get to side control or half guard immediately. He has great mounts once he gets to either position. He is always trying to create a scramble where he can take the back. He is one of the best backpacks in the sport, and extremely hard to get off your back. He will get the body triangle and look for the rear naked choke. He has no problem with just hanging out in back mount & riding out the round if opponents play it safe and taking the round. Maia has 12 submissions including 8 rear naked chokes. Maia is fighting in his home country of Brazil & with 3 straight losses, and significant step down in competition he badly needs a win here. With a win Maia would become the fourth fighter in UFC history with 20 wins and further cement his legacy as a future UFC HOFer. Maia needs to do what he does force grappling situations and find a way to get this fight to the mat. Good has struggled with grapplers over his career & Maia will have seen that and know he can take him down. He needs to be smart with his gas tank & not gas himself going for the finish early or spamming takedown attempts. If he can take Good down, there will be a huge skill difference.
Lyman Good
Age: 33
Height: 6’0
Weight: 170
Reach: 73”
Gym: Tiger Schulmann’s MMA
From: New York
UFC Record: 2-1
Fight Matrix: 54
Last Fought: 3 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +155
Good is a technical striker out of Team Tiger Schulmann, with knock out power. He has a very nice jab, and good straight right hand. He has a good check left hook. He has good parrying & hand fighting & is good at landing sharp counters in the pocket. He will throw hard hooks in combination with both hands. He is a forward pressure fighter & doesn’t really use a lot of lateral movement. He has heavy inside leg & body kicks. He has big power with 10 knockouts and coming off a big knockout of Ben Saunders. He has shown a good chin & has never been finished in his career, but he did show some mental weakness regarding getting hit against Zaleski Dos Santos.
Good is a big, powerful athlete and will do damage in the clinch. He ended his last match with nasty uppercuts in the clinch, which knocked Saunders out unconscious. He likes to dig to the body with hard hooks as well and will throw 5-6 in a row. He has good knees to the body. I assume he will want to completely avoid the clinch against Maia, because Maia is a takedown specialist in the clinch. Good has always had questionable takedown defense, and it has been the cause of multiple losses in MMA for him. He was notoriously grinded out, by Ben Askren & Ian Stephens on TUF. Good will attack off his back with triangles, and arm bars, but anything he tries against Maia will most likely be futile. He does go for takedowns himself and has a decent double leg & back takes in his own right. There are still levels & Lyman Good is not even close to being on the level of Demian Maia on the ground. Good has 3 submissions in his career. Good needs to have his takedown defense, and anti-clinch game on point for this matchup. He needs to deny the takedown attempts of Maia & piece him up on the feet.
This is a clear striker vs grappler match and we know exactly what both guys will be aiming to do. Lyman Good will be looking to take Maia’s head off and Maia will be looking to get the fight to the ground where Good won’t be able to do that. If Good can stay on his feet, then he should win and possibly by knockout. If Maia can get the fight to the ground then he should win and probably by submission. If either guy can get the finish then they will score highly, and if there is no finish then the winner won’t score highly. That pretty much sums it up from a DK perspective.
In DraftKings, my preferred play is Maia. I might use both guys in my lineups but I will be higher on Maia and I don’t see me being too heavily invested in it as a whole. I don’t think either fighter is safe enough for cash games so this will be a GPP only fight for me but I don’t see me having it in more than 30% or so of my lineups. We have seen Maia go 0-49 on takedown attempts in his last 3 fights and if he can’t get the fight to the ground then the only way of a high score is going to be from Good knocking him out. Good is nowhere near the wrestler of Maia’s last 3 opponents, but he also throws to kill so I think he has a better chance than those guys of finishing Maia. Overall, I think Maia is able to get this fight to the ground and I would like to see him get a submission win in Brazil and then hang up his gloves with 20 UFC wins. I am not sure he can be the first to submit Good though and that is why I won’t be overweight to this fight and I think if you are making 5 or less lineups you should pick a side or just fade the fight altogether.
Winner – Damien Maia via 2nd round submission
Renato Moicano $8,300 vs Jose Aldo $7,900
Renato Moicano
Age: 29
Height: 5’11
Weight: 145
Reach: 72”
Gym: ATT
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 5-1
Fight Matrix: 9
Last Fought: 6 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W2
Betting Odds: -135
The legends continue to litter the card, with arguably the greatest FW of all time Jose Aldo set to fight. He will be taking on Renato Moicano in a new school vs old school Brazil matchup. Jose Aldo has been at the top of the division, since the UFC introduced it, with only losses to Max Holloway & Conor McGregor. He has lost 3 of his last five matches and is coming into this match as the underdog. Renato Moicano is coming off a first round finish of Cub Swanson and is 5-1 with his one UFC loss coming to Brian Ortega. Moicano is an excellent fundamental striker. He works behind a filthy jab, hard inside leg kicks and great footwork & lateral movement. His straight right hand is nasty, and he sets it up with the jab very well. He has a nice overhand right left hook. He is very good at fighting in the pocket, and he has great parrying & hand fighting along with elite hand speed. He will throw a lot of straight punch combinations, followed by hard body kicks. He does a great job of throwing a jab, sliding back avoiding the counter and landing a hard-straight right hand. He has good left uppercut right hook combination. He attacks the body well with punches. He has nice head kicks and will throw them at the end of combinations. He looked the sharpest he has ever looked in his last match, dropping & submitting Cub Swanson in the first round. Moicano isn’t a power striker and relies more on volume. Jeremy Stephens was able to land some good low kicks, and Moicano after he gets clipped hard he seems to get much more timid and defensive. He has never earned a KO/TKO in his career. He has a good chin and has never been finished by strikes.
Moicano is a black belt, and very good on the ground. He is excellent at striking from the clinch. He has nasty knees to the body & great Muay Thai plum elbows. He has strong body lock takedowns, and showed excellent guard passing against Cub Swanson. He was able to move directly into mount and has heavy top pressure. He has great floating ability, and will quickly take the back, and look for RNC’s. He has good single leg takedowns & reactive double legs. He shot an ill-advised takedown into a guillotine in round 3 against Brian Ortega, because he seemed tired and didn’t like the forward pressure on the feet. He has great takedown defense, but I highly doubt this fight hits the ground unless someone gets dropped. He has 6 submissions, and only been submitted once. Moicano is going to have to change his style up a bit for this match up in my opinion. I think Moicano should use more forward pressure, try to force Aldo into pocket exchanges & test his cardio & durability. He needs to throw in combination and try to catch Aldo as he exits. Aldo can exit with his chin high at times, when he feels an exchange is over & Moicano needs to exploit that. Playing an outside striking game with Aldo even now is a hard proposition.
José Aldo
Age: 32
Height: 5’7
Weight: 145
Reach: 70”
Gym: Upper Sportsite Club
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 9-3
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 2-3
Current Streak: W1
Betting Odds: +115
José Aldo is in the twilight of his career. He has stated he wants to fight 3 more times in Brazil & retire. Aldo also decided to co-main event this event rather than headline it, so he wouldn’t have to fight five rounds. A decision made by Dede Pederneras. Some people may see that as a lack of motivation, but there has been bad blood coming into this matchup, and I see Aldo being motivated. Aldo is one of the best strikers of all time. Aldo is extremely economical & accurate with his shots, and fights like a sniper. He has a tremendous jab, and lateral footwork, making it extremely hard for opponents to get inside. He does a great job of faking the jab to create an opening for his straight right hand & does an excellent job of jabbing stepping back allowing his opponent to go first & countering with hard shots. He has nasty counter right straights & hooks. He likes to throw left hooks & straight left hands into hard leg & body kicks. He does a great job of faking & feinting the same combinations he lands, really making his opponent always have to be reacting to him instead of creating their own offense. Aldo has some of the best leg kicks in MMA history, but really hasn’t thrown them much in recent fights. This is a strike he needs to get back to in this matchup and try to batter the lead leg of Moicano. Aldo has amazing head movement & will slip and return in the pocket with hard hooks to the body. He has nasty step in knees to the body when opponents try to get inside & will also throw flying knees which are devastating. He has finished multiple fights via flying knee KO. He will throw nice spinning body kicks and has good head kicks. Aldo is still extremely explosive & powerful and definitely the fighter with more one shot knock out power. He has always been one of the fastest fighters in the UFC, and it will be interesting to see who is faster in this matchup on the night. Aldo has 16 KO/TKOs in his illustrious career, but his ability to take a shot has weakened, and he has been finished by strikes 3 times, all in his last 5 fights.
Aldo is in my opinion the best anti grappler in MMA history. The ability he has to deny take down attempts & make fighters pay for shooting is absolutely uncanny. He throws the front knees up the middle & flying knees to stop take down attempts, along with very accurate uppercuts. Aldo is nasty in the clinch. He has great knees to the body & was able to get a highlight reel flying knee KO of Chad Mendes directly off the break. He does a great job of limp legging out of single legs & sprawling on doubles. He has a great whizzer to deny single legs and will land hard hammerfists to the head. He rarely shoots takedowns, but he does have good reactive double legs, and decent clinch takedowns. He is a black belt but is not a dangerous submission threat in top position, he normally only wrestles when he is tired. He has had cardio issues in fights, specifically five round fights, but he did gas quickly against Holloway. Holloway pushes a pace, that few in MMA history have been able to do and is not the same fighter as Renato. Aldo is going to do what he does. He is going to use his tremendous lateral footwork & angling, pot shot from the outside & explode in when he sees opportunities. He needs to keep his jab pumping, and his leg kicks. I think Aldo should try to throw jab over hand rights or jab straight right hands and catch Moicano with the second punch in a combination. If he can start to beat Moicano at an outside game, Moicano may get sloppy and that’s where Aldo’s knees come into play. Moicano has no KO/TKOs in his career, so it will be interesting to see if he has the power to hurt Jose.
I am real excited for this fight and it could be a changing of the guard. Aldo has been a UFC great ever since he came over from WEC and now Moicano is the guy knocking on the door of a title shot. I think this fight takes place on the feet but if there are takedown attempts then I would expect those to come from Moicano. He averages 1.27 takedowns per 15-minutes compared to Aldo’s 0.73. However, Aldo has a 92% takedown defense rate, so that is why I think it takes place on the feet. Moicano also averages 5.71 landed sig strikes per minute compared to Aldo’s 3.51, so he has the edge there as well in pace. I think as long as he doesn’t get finished then he should win this fight and I think the line is right. I think both guys are going to be popular and for that reason I might just take a stand and fade Aldo here. I think you can make a case to fade both guys because if this is a 15-minute standing fight then I could see the winner scoring mid 60’s, especially if it is a close back and forth fight. With the ownership both guys should receive, I think fading the fight makes sense if you think there won’t be a finish.
On DraftKings, Moicano is my preferred play and I think his size advantage and solid jab is going to cause problems for Aldo. I think Moicano is the real deal and if he wins this fight I would love to see him face off with Max Holloway. I have also heard that this could be Aldo’s retirement fight and I never like targeting fighters I know are retiring. If Aldo’s head is thinking retirement, then I don’t see that going over well against a young killer who has his eyes on the belt. I am going to be investing some lineups on Moicano and hoping he can get a finish, but I do think a fade is the best option for this fight. I will be fading Aldo personally, but if he goes out there and gets another early finish then he will surely be on the winning lineup and that is just a risk I am willing to take.
Winner – Renato Moicano via 3rd round (T)KO
Marlon Moraes $8,800 vs Raphael Assuncao $7,400
Marlon Moraes
Age: 30
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 66.5”
Gym: Ricardo Almeida BJJ
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 3-1
Fight Matrix: 2
Last Fought: 8 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W3
Betting Odds: -165
Marlon Moraes has gotten back to back wins against elite fighters, but not much octagon time. He has finished Aljamain Sterling & Jimmie Rivera vía head kick both in round 1. Moraes is a Muay Thai champion & a powerful striker. He has brutal leg kicks & power in his hands. Moraes will throw the occasional jab, but he really likes to throw a left hook straight right-hand combination. He has a nice right hook to the body, and good right uppercut left hook combination. He does a good job of feinting his right hand getting his opponents to back up & then smashing their lead leg with a low kick. He has very fast body kicks & will throw nice switch kicks to the body. He also has nasty head kicks & does a good job of throwing question mark kicks, hiding the kick behind the left hook. He will throw front kicks to the body & head. He does a good job of attacking the body to later open up shots for the head. Recently he hasn’t needed to do that & dusted both his opponents with head kicks in the first round. He has 10 KO/TKOs, and been finished twice by strikes, but very early in his career.
Moraes very rarely will wrestle, but he did attempt a few takedowns in the first fight with Assuncao. He has shown a fairly good double leg & nice timing on it. He got Assuncao down one time but didn’t have any control time. He has great takedown defense, and if you do get him down he is super hard to hold down. Dodson had some success catching Moraes kicks & dumping him but couldn’t control him on the mat. Moraes is a black belt as well, and well versed on the mat. Moraes likes to drop opponents, take their backs and submit them. He has 4 rear naked chokes & five submissions overall. He also will attack with leg locks. He did jump on a guillotine against Dodson, and got the tap, but it was a second after the bell rang. Moraes is a killer & with back to back first round finishes he has to be thinking revenge will be sweet. Marlon is going to need to use in & out movement find his range, throw leg kicks & his left hook right hand. If he can walk Assuncao down & get him to react to his feints he will start to piece him up with shots.
Raphael Assuncao
Age: 36
Height: 5’6
Weight: 135
Reach: 67.5”
Gym: Ascension MMA
From: Brazil
UFC Record: 11-2
Fight Matrix: 6
Last Fought: 7 Months
Last Five: 4-1
Current Streak: W4
Betting Odds: +145
Raphael Assuncao is extremely good. He has good striking with great striking defense, great bjj and takedown defense, and amazing cardio. He is primarily a counter striker who likes to pressure and stay in your face making you fight backwards. He throws great leg kicks, very heavy and also comes over the top with a beautiful counter right hand. Assuncao likes to keep the fight at a methodical pace and does that through his pressure and countering. He makes his opponents weary of throwing due to the counter strikes and winning by pot shotting from the outside. He does a great job of skipping the jab and coming over the top with the right hand or landing a leg kick. Inside he will throw well timed flying knees, and nice uppercuts. He is extremely hard to hit especially to the head he has very tricky head movement, he switches stances off of his kicks and throws nice body kicks slipping back and throwing them when you attack with a strike. He is the less explosive athlete in this fight, and if Moraes can find his range & start to move in and out that could cause him issues. Assuncao will never hunt for knockouts & fights to win decisions more than get finishes. He has 4 KO/TKOs in his career. He has only been KO’d one time in his career & never at 135.
Assuncao is a black belt in Jiu-Jitsu, but not an extremely active takedown seeker. He does have good reactive double legs & he will throw knees right of the break. He will shoot singles & has decent body lock trips. On top he is active with submissions & will work quickly. He likes to take the back, but he hasn’t had many submission victories since he started becoming a proficient striker. He has 10 career submissions, but none since 2013 & only one in the UFC. He has great cardio & knows how to win decisions. Assuncao needs to go forward & make Moraes go backwards. He needs to throw straight right hands down the pipe, and jam Moraes’ kicks. He needs to use straight punches & kicks to land first when Moraes throws his wide attacks.
This is a rematch from UFC 212 when these two guys had a 15-minute close striking match. In that fight, Assuncao got the win with his 43 significant strikes and scored 51.5 DraftKings points. Moraes landed 44 significant strikes but since he didn’t get the judges nod he only scored 22 DK points. Combined that is only 73.5 DK points and that is a big reason I will likely not be stacking this fight in cash games. This fight does have two more rounds to work with, so I expect closer to 100 total points if this goes all 5, but I want a floor of 100 when I am stacking, and I don’t think we have that here. I think Moraes has the higher ceiling and we saw that with his last two fights. He got a 1st round KO in both those fights and scored 114 and 104 DK points. Assuncao has only scored over 100 one time on his DK log and he has had a lot more fights than Moraes has. I think the line is right on this one and I am going to lean with Moraes to get his hand raised, but I do think we see another decision between these two. I think Moraes is going to have the speed advantage and if this fight ends early then I think he is the one getting the finish, so that is why I will be siding with him.
On DraftKings, I am usually close to all-in on the main event, but that is not the case this week. I am not even against fading this fight as a whole either. I think if this does go to a decision then the winner scores between 70-80 DK points and that probably won’t get the job done if it is Moraes, and its nothing special from Assuncao either. Assuncao could end up on the optimal lineup even with 10x, but there are other fighters who have higher ceilings in this low range and they will be less owned as well. I am going to say Moraes is my preferred GPP play because of the higher ceiling and I expect him to be lower owned than Assuncao, but I will be locking Assuncao into my cash lineup and just use Moraes as a GPP only play. If I was making just 10 lineups for GPPs then I would probably have 2-3 Assuncao and only 3-4 Moraes. This fight will gain a lot of ownership because it is the main event, so if you want to fade it then I think this is one of the few times that would be fine for a 5-round fight.
Winner – Marlon Moraes via Split Decision
Thanks again for purchasing this article and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley. If you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
*** All my premium bets can be found at this link: https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks
- Bets are on a 1-10u scale with 1u = $100. I am +$18,8248 since May 19, 2018 for all premium bets for UFC. I am also +$9,384 on the last 9 UFC cards.
