Good morning to you beautiful people out there in DFS land! You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army. I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2018-2019 CBB season! Remember, if I mention a player and do not point out which site it means that my preference is the site where he is cheaper. Let’s take a look at what games are on the slates for DraftKings and Fanduel this evening. The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.
Yale (70) vs Miami (79)
Wake Forest (72) vs Richmond (73)
Baylor (70) vs Wichita St (71)
Oregon (66) vs Houston (68)
California (64) vs St Marys (73)
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YALE vs MIAMI
This game is expected to have the highest point total on the slate and I can’t disagree with that. I see a few things that stand out for each side and I think Yale is in a great spot to surprise a few people from a DFS standpoint. The big problem, as almost always, is possible foul issues happening. When it comes to Yale on the offensive end, they are extremely efficient and have an effective FG% north of 60%. Yale makes nearly 46% of their 3s while assisting on 55% of their made shots. A big negative for Yale is the number of turnovers they commit. On the defensive end of the floor, they guard the 3 pretty well, but they give up a TON of FT attempts.
I have a lot of interest in Yale players for this slate. My two favorites are Bruner and Oni. Not far behind those two are guys like Swain, Reynolds, and Copeland. I think they are all in play on both sites, but I prefer Reynolds and Copeland on FD more so than on DK. I like Swain more on DK thanks to his 3-point shooting.
I see this Miami team bouncing back after an ugly performance against Rutgers earlier this week. They are basically an above average offense across the board, minus the fact that they get their shots blocked at a higher %. On the defensive end, they are very active while defending the 3-point line pretty well and avoiding fouls (other than Izundu). Over 60% of the points that they allow come from 2-point range.
It’s going to pain me to say this, but I think I am off of Lykes until he starts playing better or his price drops a little bit. My main targets are Lawrence and Johnson. Athletic, slashing players seem to be the ones to attack Yale with as they were the ones from Memphis to get the job done. Johnson is way too cheap on DK, while I think Lawrence is too cheap on FD for this match-up. I am not a fan of Izundu‘s price point, however, we know he is capable of putting up a monster GPP winning performance. Vasiljevic can get hot from the 3-point line and makes an interesting GPP leverage play off of Johnson.
WAKE FOREST vs RICHMOND
Wake Forest is a tough team to figure out as they have some talented players, but they recently lost to Houston Baptist. On the offensive side of the ball, they score over 28% of their points from the FT line. They shoot the 3-ball extremely well while also being very strong on the offensive glass. On the defensive end, they limit teams from hitting the offensive boards while also being very active and picking up steals. They get torched by the 3-point shot (which might not come in handy in this game). Wake also struggles mightily defending 2-point shots.
Wake has one of my favorite freshman in J.Hoard. He offers a ridiculous upside with a very low floor as he is definitely raw. The other main offensive player for the Demon Deacons is B.Childress. I am leaning towards taking him more like a cash game play, however, his usage is up there and should be fine for GPP play. The only others on my radar are C.Brown and S.Wright. The problem is they basically take minutes away from each other and it’s tough to predict. Brown started the last game, but Wright has started a majority of them so far.
Richmond attempts to slow the game down, mostly on the defensive end of the floor. When it comes to the offense they do a good job of limiting turnovers while they make nearly 61% of their 2-point attempts. On the defensive side of the ball, they really struggle keeping teams from making shots.
Richmond is led by a big man down low that takes over 35% of the shots when he is on the floor. That player is Grant Golden. Including FT’s Golden is attempting over 21 shots per game. We have injury news to monitor for Richmond as their second-leading usage player has missed the last two games. Gilyard has had a couple of nice performances this season and would be a GPP play should he return to the lineup. Cayo has stepped in for an injured Sherod and has been spectacular. I really like his price on both sites, especially if Gilyard is out again. If Gilyard is out, Gustavson becomes a lock on both FD and DK. Wojcik is an interesting GPP play on DK thanks to his 3-point shooting ability.
BAYLOR vs WICHITA ST
Baylor is very good at crashing the offensive boards while limiting steals and blocked shots against. On the defensive end, they try to force teams to slow down. They are the top team in the country in terms of shots blocked % and do a good job of defending in general. They do commit a lot of fouls and allow a lot of FTs to be taken against them.
Baylor has a few intriguing options in this game. Clark is my favorite GPP play as he has a great upside while offering a pretty ugly floor. I think that McClure is playing as the leader of this team and offers some GPP upside. Mason‘s shooting provides him some upside at just $5000 on DK. Kegler is basically free on DK and still very much in play on FD as he made his season debut just the other day. Mayer and Butler could certainly have solid games, but I consider them nothing more than deep GPP dart throws.
Wichita St rarely has their shots blocked and they rarely have the ball stolen from them on the offensive end. Aside from those things, they are basically average across the board. When it comes to defense, they force turnovers at an above average rate. They send teams to the FT line way too much and aren’t very strong in defending the 2 point shot.
This feels like a game that McDuffie needs to step up in and that interests me from a GPP standpoint. I think he will be a bit lower owned due to the players around his price points. Stevenson appears to be pretty safe and should find his way into your cash games at the very least. Echenique, Haynes-Jones, Dennis, and Burton are GPP plays as they have shown solid upside for their prices.
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OREGON vs HOUSTON
This game is going to be built around the defensive end of the floor as both teams offer an extremely solid defense. Oregon’s offense is solid as they get to the FT line frequently. Over 24% of their points come from the FT line and they assist on nearly 60% of their made shots. On defense, they block nearly 20% of their opponent’s shots while limiting them to an eFG% of just 41.8. They do not force many turnovers and they do allow teams to attack the offensive glass.
Bol Bol has looked extremely solid as a freshman so far, however, I just can not suggest paying the price for him (especially on DK) in a game that should see fewer possessions than they are used to. I also think Pritchard is priced too high for this match-up, though I feel he is probably OK for cash. Amin comes across as nothing more than an OK GPP play. I do have some interest in the upside of Wooten at his price point after leaving last game early with a knee bruise. Richardson is a value play that fits into lineups if you want a more stars and scrubs type approach.
Houston basically runs at the slowest adjusted pace in the country at this point. On the offensive end, Houston is extremely efficient. They make over 40% of their 3s while never turning the ball over and crashing the offensive glass. They do struggle to get to the FT line and when they do get there they don’t convert very well. On the defensive end, they have yet to exhibit any real weaknesses yet.
Davis is definitely in play thanks to his nearly 31% shot percentage even in a game expected to be played at a slow pace. Brooks has struggled quite a bit of late from the field and that intrigues me as the masses will be off of him based on that. Robinson‘s price has come down to a point where he offers excellent GPP upside. Alley is another guy with GPP upside that is accompanied by a cellar floor.
CALIFORNIA vs ST MARYS
California is one of the worst Power conference teams in the country. Cal is good at a couple of things on offense as they shoot the 3-ball at a 42% clip while they also get to the FT at a pretty solid rate. They are terrible at attacking the offensive glass which means one and done possessions. On defense, they do force turnovers but they allow teams to shoot it well from 2.
Austin intrigues me from a GPP standpoint as he has shown 40 point upside. Sueing and McNeill feels like solid GPP options coming off of some blah performances. Harris-Dyson is an interesting GPP option, however, I feel like last game was almost entirely because of McNeill’s foul trouble.
St Marys plays at an extremely slow pace. They very rarely turn the ball over and are extremely efficient. On defense, they rarely turn you over while almost never blocking any shots. They are beaten by the 2 point shot while defending the 3-point line extremely well.
Jordan Ford seems like an extremely safe play as he rarely comes off the floor and takes nearly 32% of the shots. I really like Fitts‘ GPP upside as he is capable of putting up a big double-double. I really like Hunter‘s upside, especially at $4100 on DK.
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