Welcome fellow MMA fans to another solid night of fights. This week we have a 13 fight card taking place at Madison Square Gardens in New York. I really like this card from a cash game perspective and tournament one on draftkings. The key this week will be finding the right dogs to go with the higher priced fighters in good match-ups. Overall we have solid contest selections this week in general.
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As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on Draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC 230 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on the card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight but, at least 1 of them is under this group.
Cormier (-630) 9.6k vs Lewis (+520) 6.6k
Cormier is a good striker (3.88 Significant Strikes per minute) and a solid wrestler. He has good takedowns (TD’s) lands 1.85 per fight and has solid cardio. Lewis is coming into this fight winning 9 of his last 10 fights. He typically does so in dramatic fashion. Generally he is losing the fight until he lands a huge shot late and gets the stoppage.
Looking at Vegas tbis fight has tbe best finishing prop to end inside the distance on the entire card (-1175). In cash games I don’t hate the idea of stacking this fight. Cormier is more than likely winning this fight (-400 to win ITD). In cash games on draftkings we need to punt somewhere. You might as well consider it here since it protects you in case Lewis does get the finish.
In tournaments I am going to get as much exposure to Cormier as I can afford. He will be one of my highest owned fighters on the entire card. Lewis is worth taking a chance on in 1-2 lineups. Thats all I want personally. He very well could be popular and I would rather get an edge by having more Cormier than most do. Overall my preferred play is Cormier.
Good (-570) 9.5k vs Saunders (+480) 6.7k
Good is an ok striker (5.50 SS’s per minute) and has solid power (9 of his wins have been via KO). He also has decent submissions. Saunders comes into this fight losing 3 of his last 4 (all 3 losses were by stoppage). He is a decent striker (3.13 SS’s per minute) and has good leg kicks.
Vegas highly sees this one ending ITD (-450). With the most likely scenerio being from Good (-270 to win ITD). This puts him in play in all formats for me. I have no problem with trying to force both Cormier and Good in tournament or cash lineups together . If, you don’t feel comfortable with that Good is a great pivot in lineups you aren’t using Cormier in. Saunders will be in very few if my lineups if any. Overall Good is my preferred play (worth mentioning our Research Station has Good has the 2nd best value on card behind only Cormier).
Vannata (-250) 8.9k vs Frevola (+235) 7.3k
Vannata is a good striker (5.18 SS’s per minute) and has ok power. Frevola is an aggresive fighter and has decent TD’s (3.15 per fight).
Vegas thinks this is another fight that ends early (-215 to end ITD). Lets take our first glance at our DFS Army exclusive Research Station to see what it thinks.
This just makes me like Vannata more. I think Vannata is playable in all formats on draftkings. I am not sure how much exposure I want to Frevola. I think he might be somewhat popular and this makes me want to have lower ownership than the field. Overall my preferred play is Vannata.
Jackson (-155) 8.3k vs Kelleher (+145) 7.9k
Jackson will have the size and reach advantage (11 inches to be exact). He is a ok striker (3.52 SS’s per minute) and has decent TD’s (2.75 per fight). Kelleher is an aggresive fighter. This sonetimes gets him in trouble because he often absorbs a ton of damage in order to get in range to land his shots. When he finds his range he is a high output striker (5.06 SS’s per minute). To go along with his striking he also has solid submissions specially, his guillotine.
Both of these 2 are priced in the midrange which means you will want to have some exposure to this fight.
To go along with these numbers, Vegas is leaning towards this fight going to decision (-180). I think both fighters are playable in all formats (this does not mean stack) depending on your lineup build. My preferred play is going to be Jackson in cash and tournaments. I will have some exposure to Kelleher in tournaments as well. Even in a decision win either fighter should excede value here. Overall Jackson is who I will have heavier exposure to.
Adesanya (-275) 9.1k vs Brunson (+250) 7.1k
Adesanya is a good striker (4.69 SS’s per minute) and has a solid jab. He is a decent grappler and has shown improved TD defense . Brunson is an ok striker (3.16 SS’s) and has solid TD’s (2.88 per fight).
Vegas is leaning on this fight ending ITD (-175). With Adesanya being the benefactor (+110 to win ITD). Adesanya is another 9k fighter in the mix as playable in all formats. I will most likely use Brunson as a hedge in a few lineups I don’t have Adesanya in. Overall my preferred play is Adesanya.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Wieczorek (-210) 8.6k vs Rogerio (+190) 7.6k
Wieczorek isn’t very good overall. He is a decent striker but, lands at a fairly low rate (2.50 SS’s). He has decent submissions and that’s how he wins the majority od his fights. Rogerio is an ok striker (4.30 SS’s) and has big power. His biggest knock is he often gasses after the 1st Round.
Looking at Vegas this one should end pretty quick (-450 to end ITD). I have already mentioned several high priced fighters I like. This is a prefect chance to take a chance on a dog. With Rogerio priced at only 7.6k on draftkings I love him as a tournament punt. He will definitely be one of my higher owned sub 8k fighters. Wieczorek is worth using in a few lineups. I just personally think other fighers around him are in better spots.
Burgos (-315) 9k vs Holobaugh (+285) 7.2k
Burgos is an aggresive fighter. He is a good striker (6.49 SS’s) and has good power. Holobaugh is a tough fighter and has decent Jiu Jitsu. He is a good striker (4.90 SS’s) and has solid power.
Vegas is leaning towards this going to the judges scorecards (-165 fight goes to decision).
Even in a decision scenerio the Research Station likes Burgos quite a bit. He is popping off as the 4th best value play on card but, on draftkings he is only the 7th highest priced fighter. He offers great value for his price going off these numbers. In fact I don’t even hate the idea of using him in cash games looking at those numbers. Even with this data I still think you need some exposure to Holobaugh. Overall Burgos is my preferred play.
Arce (-230) 9.2k vs Moraes (+210) 7k
Arce is a good striker (5.57 SS’s) and a solid wrestler. To go along with his wrestling he also has good submissions. Moraes is a solid striker (3.08 SS’s) and has good power. He has solid cardio.
This fight is exoected to go to decision (-215). Just based off the odds and his draftkings salary Arce is mainly in play for me as a pivot of the other 9k fighters. By all means he potentially could get the early stoppage but, I don’t think it’s likely. Moraes is more in play for me as a tournament punt mainly because he is so cheap and allows me to pay up in spots. Overall a fight I will most likly have limited exposure on in general.
Roberson (-260) 8.7k vs Marshman (+240) 7.5k
Roberson is an ok striker (2.99 SS’s) and good leg kicks. He is solid in the clinch and has ok TD’s (1.73 per fight). Marshman is a good striker (3.49 SS’s) and has ok power.
Vegas likes this to go to decision (-225). If by chance it does end ITD they are thinking it will be from Roberson (-122). Lets see if the Research Station agrees.
This makes him a great tournament play. He has a fairly safe floor in that if fight goes to decision he should land some TD’s and reach value. He also has the upside we want with his striking . Marshman is playable as a punt. In a win he would most likely reach value. Overall my preferred play is Roberson.
Branch (-325) 9.3k vs Cannonier (+295) 6.9k
Branch will have the height and reach advantage in this fight. He is a good striker and has good TD’s. Cannonier is moving down a weightclass for this fight. He is a solid striker and has decent power.
This fight is pretty split on if this ends early or goes to decision. In either case I prefer Branch. I like the TD upside he has. My only cause for concern is he doesn’t throw at a high enough rate. Cannonier doesn’t interest outside of very low exposure punt play. Overall my preferred play is Branch.
Knight (-245) 8.8k vs Rinaldi (+225) 7.4k
Knight is a solid striker (3.27 SS’s) and has decent TD’s (1.51 per fight). Rinaldi is an ok wrestler and has decent TD’s.
Overall not a fight I am going to have heavy exposure to. My prefeerred play is Knight mainly becsuse he has more avenues to get a victory.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
Eubanks (-540) 9.4k vs Modafferi (+460) 6.8k
Mainly problem with Eubanks is she is too expensive for me in a fight expected to go to decision. Modafferi is in play as a cash punt. She should hit about 25-30 pts in lose. I am fine with that strategy.
Weidman (-155) 8.5k vs Souza (+145) 7.7k
I just think these 2 will be too high owned. So I am mostly likely fading this as an ownership and leverage play.
If you don’t want to fade both are viable in tournaments with my preferred play being Weidman.
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