Good morning to you beautiful people out there in DFS land! You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army. I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2018-2019 CBB season! Remember, if I mention a player and do not point out which site it means that my preference is the site where he is cheaper. Let’s take a look at what games are on the slates for DraftKings and Fanduel this evening. The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.
Mississippi St (69) vs Dayton (66)
Radford (61) vs Texas (75)
Wisconsin (72) vs Iowa (71)
Oklahoma St (72) vs Minnesota (74)
Appalachian St (77) vs East Carolina (75)
Colgate (70) vs South Florida (69)
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MISSISSIPPI ST vs DAYTON
Mississippi St makes 59% of their 2-point shots but manages to only knock down roughly 29% of their 3-point attempts. They are very solid at attacking the offensive glass and while they are a very good FT shooting team, they do not take many. On the defensive end, they slow you down while excelling at defending the 2. They are very active on D and offer upside with blocks and steals.
Sounds as if Ado will return after a 2 game absence due to an ankle injury, so that muddies things a little bit. Ado does not offer much offense, however, he is a strong rebounder with shot blocking ability. With Ado returning, I have to move Perry from a lock on DK to an intriguing GPP option thanks to his $3800 price tag. Two of my favorite DK plays on the slate are Peters and Carter. Carter has the highest shot % on the team and is just $4700. I believe Holman has the upside to win you a GPP on either site, but find him to be safer on DK.
Dayton is an extremely slow team that scores 60% of their points from 2. They do a great job on the defensive glass, however, they do not force turnovers or block many shots. They have been pretty balanced to begin the season as 7 guys have a shot % of 18+. With Dayton having the second lowest projected team total I am going to do my best to limit my exposure.
Crutcher is arguably Dayton’s best player and while I worry about his overall upside, I think he is definitely in play tonight. Jordan Davis plays a ton of minutes and is only $4700 on DK tonight, where I expect him to be somewhat popular. Landers is certainly in play as if he had shot the ball slightly better the last two games we might have seen him a bit more expensive. Mikesell is a shot in the dark GPP play on FD as he had shown some upside early in the season.
RADFORD vs TEXAS
Radford is one of the absolutely slowest paced teams in the country. They grind out possessions on offense as they do not turn it over and they shoot 40% from 3. They do not draw many fouls and they lack any kind of size in the paint. The Highlanders’ leading rebounder is 6 foot 5 Ed Polite Jr.
One of the first names that popped for me was Donald Hicks as he is just $4000 on DK. The issue is that he played just 3 minutes last game and I cannot find any information as to why. I am going to be following all things Radford today to try and find out if he is starting tonight. Stay tuned to the slack channel for updates! Jones has GPP winning upside, especially on FD as Texas has been beaten up by PGs to start the year. Polite has double-double upside, however, I worry about his ability to hit the boards while battling the size of Texas. Tanner interests me as he is capable of getting hot as he is shooting 50% from 3 and has a KenPom offensive rating of 144. The problem is if he doesn’t take and make a few shots early, he just ends up out there not doing a ton. Sallah could be the GPP winning plug-in on DK at $3800. The issue is he is very foul prone, but his size will be needed in this one.
Texas plays at an average pace while not turning it over and taking 47% of their shots from 3 on offense. They play excellent defense and are capable of racking up plenty of blocks and steals. Texas has the second highest projected team total this evening.
Roach has really stepped up this season and his consistency has really caught me off guard. He is definitely in play for all formats tonight on both sites. Febres is an interesting GPP dart throw on DK due to the 3-point bonus. I really like Hayes tonight and will be plugging him into a number of lineups, especially on DK at just $5200. Osetkowski is a solid, unspectacular play on DK as he shouldn’t really hurt you in any way, but I do not like his price on FD.
WISCONSIN vs IOWA
Wisconsin has gotten back to traditional Badger basketball as they are playing at an extremely slow pace, while not turning the ball over. They are #9 in the country in terms of 3 point shooting % even though they do not take a ton. On defense, they do not foul but they manage to block shots at a decent rate. The negative about their defense is that they do not force many turnovers. The big battle in this will be at the FT line as they are giving up just 14% of their points allowed at the FT line.
Happ is KenPom’s #1 rated player so far this season and while the DK price tag is pretty high I think he is in play across all contests tonight and will definitely be plugging him into cash on FD. He went for 21-10-5-3 last year against Iowa and should be seeing the same defenders. Trice has been a huge bright spot for Wisconsin to begin the season as he has taken care of the basketball while shooting lights out from the field. He is definitely safer on DK thanks to his 3 point shooting. I am not sure if the rest of my take on Wisconsin is my homerism or not, but I have an interest in Reuvers as a deep GPP sleeper on DK, Iverson, King, Ford, and Thomas on DK. I do not mind King and Thomas on FD as well. King’s minutes have been up there recently, Ford has been shooting it well and I think Thomas sees minutes to deal with Cook and Garza tonight. Davison is somebody I can’t figure out as he is playing off the ball more and I think that limits his production some. He has the upside to go for 6-7x, however his floor is around 2.5x.
Iowa is extremely fast-paced. They take a TON of FTs while assisting on nearly 60% of their made baskets. They can give up possession via steals at times. On defense they do not foul very often, however, they are not a great rebounding team overall. Garza dominated the Badgers in last year’s matchup.
Garza would normally be at the top of my list, however, he hasn’t appeared as dominant this season yet and is coming off of seeing just 17 minutes. Cook has been better than Garza so far this season and he could certainly put Reuvers’ defense to the test in this match-up. Wieskamp has been on a tear and will most likely be popular at just $5700 on DK. Bohannon offers GPP upside as he went for a double-double last year in this game. McCaffrey is very similar to Bohannon, however, while he is more talented I think he is a bit more volatile. Nicholas Baer is an interesting option on DK.
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OKLAHOMA ST vs MINNESOTA
Oklahoma St is making over 42% of their 3’s so far this season as they run at a pretty average pace. They do turn the ball over at a fairly high rate while also struggling to attack the offensive glass. On the defensive end of the floor, they create turnovers without sending opponents to the FT line while also being above average at blocking shots.
I think that McGriff is a bit too expensive in this match-up, even though I believe he offers the upside needed to return value. I just think the match-up with Murphy is less than ideal. Waters is in a pretty solid spot and while I wish his price tag was slightly lower on both sites, I think the fact that Oklahoma St has one of the higher team totals on the slate puts Waters in play across all formats. Anei is really the only other Cowboy that interests me as he is capable of racking up rebounds and blocks in a hurry.
Minnesota is slightly above average in terms of pace on the season. They attack the offensive glass extremely well while also getting to the FT quite a bit. They do not shoot the ball very well and they allow their shots to get blocked at a pretty high rate. On defense they limit opposing teams on the offensive glass, however, they struggle to turn the opposition over.
I feel like I should have more interest in Minnesota than I do as they have one of the top totals on the slate. I love Murphy on FD, but would rather pay up to Happ on DK. Kalscheur is a prime DK option as he is shooting 56% from three on the season and has shown the willingness to take double-digit shots from deep. The only other interests I have are for GPP darts as McBrayer and Washington are capable of putting up solid returns, but they are also capable of being nearly invisible on the floor.
APPALACHIAN ST vs EAST CAROLINA — DK Only
The Mountaineers are not a very good basketball so it surprises me that KP has them projected to not only win but also put up the highest total of the night. They play at an above average pace on offense and make over 40% of their 3 point shots. They do a good job of getting to the FT line. On defense, they are near the bottom in nearly every category as they allow teams to shoot the ball extremely well from everywhere, they do not force turnovers, they allow a TON of offensive rebounds while they foul a lot and are terrible at blocking shots.
Justin Forrest is a game-time decision tonight and that is a very important piece of news for us to get. If Forrest is out tonight I want all of the Shabazz and Delph that I can get. In lineups that I do not use Delph in, I will take a shot with Battle as he started the last game without Forrest. I have some GPP interest in I.Johnson, T.Johnson, and Seacat with I.Johnson being the one that interests me the most.
ECU is a pretty fast team that struggles mightily on the offensive end while offering a solid but unspectacular defense. On offense, they turn the ball over a ton, while shooting the 3 balls badly. They do get to the FT line quite a bit. On the defensive end, they commit a lot of fouls and give up a lot of FT attempts. They do not allow a very high % of shots to be made against them while forcing turnovers.
For the Pirates, I have GPP interest in LeDay, Gardner, and Davis. I am fairly confident that either LeDay or Gardner will have a big game and while I lean Gardner, I think recency bias will have him much higher owned. Fleming and Williams are guys that I could see people sneaking into GPP lineups as fliers due to the upside they have shown at different points.
COLGATE vs SOUTH FLORIDA — DK Only
Colgate is above average offensively as they are best from 2 and the FT line. They shoot the 3 at a decent clip and are above average at crashing the offensive glass. They do get careless with the ball and can allow a fair number of steals as well as blocked shots. On the defensive side, they do not turn the opposition over and they rarely block shots. They have been very solid at defending the 3 point line while forcing teams to grind out offensive possessions.
Ivanauskas is a double-double waiting to happen and while I am afraid of his foul rate, I think he makes an interesting GPP play at a high price point. The other guy this offense runs through is Burns as he has a high usage, the ability to knock down threes, gets to the FT line and is a willing distributor from the PG position. I do not see any upside in Rayman at that elevated price point. Richardson has shown upside at his price, but I do not think I will be going there tonight.
USF is not a very efficient offense as they struggle to make shots, however, they are elite at crashing the offensive glass and getting to the FT line. They do manage to force a decent amount of turnovers while also keeping teams off of the offensive glass. All of these numbers are the case while playing an EXTREMELY soft schedule to date.
My maybe not so bold lock of the night is Yetna. I could see a path to an insane 25-15 type game with him hitting the offensive boards as Colgate doesn’t have anybody to match him. Rideau is fine for cash, however, I do not think he has the upside at that price to go nuts for your GPP teams. Collins has seen his price shoot up and I cringe thinking about paying $7300 for him, however, I think he is fine for all formats as I think a 30+ night is certainly in the cards. Durr has a really high foul rate but he does offer some GPP upside thanks to his rebounding and blocked shots.
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