Good morning to you beautiful people out there in DFS land! You have managed to find yourself in a great spot here at DFS Army. I look forward to providing you with analysis and picks throughout this 2018-2019 CBB season! Remember, if I mention a player and do not point out which site it means that my preference is the site where he is cheaper. Let’s take a look at what games are on the slates for DraftKings and Fanduel this evening. The KenPom score projections are in parenthesis.
Alabama (64) vs UCF (69)
McNeese St (60) vs SMU (79)
Georgia Southern (71) vs Arizona (81)
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ALABAMA vs UCF
This game has the lowest projected and while that normally would give us a cause for concern, that is not the case on this slate with just 3 games to work with. Along with there only being 3 games, I think this game could go over it’s total due to the fact that there should be plenty of offensive rebounds and fouls committed. When it comes to the Tide, Kira Lewis is my top option for tonight’s slate. I prefer Lewis more on DK as he is the third highest priced Bama player. Jones appears to be a pretty safe option that makes more sense for cash, however, he certainly is in play for GPPs. If you think I finally have to be getting off of the Donta Hall train, you are definitely wrong as I just can’t quit him yet! His price has dropped $3000 on DK from where it was to begin the season. He has 6x+ upside at his current price and will be making a GPP lineup or two of mine. On most nights I would be locking in Reese as a GPP play on both sites, but as you will see in this write-up, there is a ton of value to be found.
When it comes to UCF, I have worries about three players getting into foul trouble. Fall, Brown, and Smith all commit fouls at an extremely high rate. I always like Fall as a GPP play thanks to his rebounding and shot blocking upside. I find him to be a much better play on DK, where Brown is priced at just $3500. We do not necessarily need the value, however, I understand plugging Brown in. Allen has GPP winning upside, while Dawkins has the highest shot % on the team. Taylor‘s price has really come down thanks to his ice-cold shooting of late and I think he is my favorite GPP option on both sites from UCF. On any other slate guys like Bertz, Griffin, and DeJesus would be in play.
McNeese ST vs SMU
McNeese St is one of the worst teams in College Basketball so far this season. They have only played 2 of their 5 games against D1 opponents. Because of this scheduling, FD has really messed up pricing this team. The Cowboys are an EXTREMELY slow paced team who does not do anything very well and has a balanced approach to usage rates to begin the season. On FD, the guys that are mispriced are Greenwood, Kennedy, and Harvey. That doesn’t mean that they are the only ones in play over there as I can make a case for Hines, who is a transfer from UMASS, Hunt, Brown, and even Robinson. I believe all of these guys are in play on DK with Hunt, Harvey, and Greenwood being the ones that I believe are too cheap.
This game has blowout written all over it in my mind even though SMU is nowhere near as good as they have been over the last few seasons. The big question is how many minutes will Foster see in his second game back from a torn ACL? He saw 19 minutes in his first game of the season and I would expect that to creep to the low to mid-20s for this game. I think he is very much in play at $4700 on FD while being completely out of play on DK. I would have thought his return would take minutes from Dixon, however, it appeared to be Whitt who saw his minutes decrease in the first game. This will be interesting to see and because of this, I am off of both Whitt and Dixon in this one. Whitt certainly could be an interesting GPP play. With all of that said, my two favorite plays for SMU are Chargois and McMurray. They combine to take nearly 58% of the shots at this point for the Mustangs. I think Mike and Hunt are very viable GPP plays in a game that could be over by halftime.
GEORGIA SOUTHERN vs ARIZONA
This game has the highest projected total and should be played at a pretty nice pace. A few things about GA Southern are that they play at a ridiculously fast pace, that fast pace brings an attacking style that leads to a lot of FTs, they are horrendous 3 point shooters with elite 2-point shooting % to begin the season, they are bad on the offensive glass, they force TOs on defense while not fouling. After all that you can see why I would be all about fitting in a few of the Eagles. Jackson is an absolute lock for me on FD, while he is still in play on DK at $10700. Brown is in play on both sites for me, however, I prefer him on DK. Smith actually leads this team in shot % and makes an excellent GPP play, especially on FD. Glenn is in play for me, but mainly just on DK for the double-double possibility. Guys like Jones, Crawley, and McCadden would be in play on most slates.
Arizona has the highest implied team total and while that normally is a place we want to attack, I do not see a ton to like about this Arizona squad. My two preferred options for Arizona are best used on DK thanks to the 3-point bonus. Coleman has really picked up his play after starting the season out extremely slow, while Randolph has always been looked at as a scorer. I think both offer upside at their prices on DK. Coleman’s improved play has lead to Williams taking a backseat on the offensive end and while that normally would give me cause for concern, I think tonight might be the right time to jump on him as a GPP pivot off of the two guys above. Jeter comes across as a fine cash game play, however, I don’t think he is worth plugging in for GPPs. With Luther having a hand injury that has been limiting him on the offensive end, I believe I will take a wait and see approach. I would not hold it against you if you wanted to fire him into a GPP lineup or two in case he has healed up.
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