BigMarley3’s DraftKings Breakdown
Event – UFC 230 Location – New York City, New York
Thanks for purchasing my UFC 230 full DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card at Madison Square Garden in NYC. This card has been switched up a few times, but we still have a solid card on Saturday. The tournaments on DraftKings are smaller than I would have expected for a PPV, but there is still a lot of money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entry with $25,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favorite contests to chase so I will be taking some shots at that. Other than that, I will stick to my 3-entry max & single entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and I will get a good amount of play in cash games.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, lets break down these UFC 230 fights and hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:
Adam Wieczorek 8,600 vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima $7,600
Adam Wieczorek (-220) comes into this fight with a 10-1 record and he is 2-0 in the UFC. Wieczorek is taking this fight short notice. He is a long heavyweight. He tries to use movement, stay long, and throw front kicks to the body and legs. On the feet he has decent speed and decent kicks. He will attack with head kicks and strong hooks. He keeps his left hand very low. He will not faint or fake much and waits a lot for guys to start the engagement as he paws his jab out. His hands don’t seem very good and he uses them more as range finders for his kicks. He is going to be at a big speed and power disadvantage on the feet, as Wieczorek is more of a volume striker. He is a durable fighter, and has never been finished with strikes, but doesn’t pack much power himself with only two KO/TKO wins.
Wieczorek prefers to grapple and have the fight on the mat. He isn’t a great wrestler and doesn’t shoot take downs in the open mat, but he does have decent clinch take downs. He has good knees and elbows. He can be overpowered and taken down, and at times it seems as if he is flopping to his back to get his opponent to follow him. He is long and active with his guard. He has good hips and will throw up triangles and arm bars, while possessing strong sweeps. On top he has good ground and pound and solid submissions. He got an omaplata victory in his last match, in a big upset proving he can come back after being dominated previously. He has questionable cardio himself but better than De Lima. Wieczorek needs to try to survive the storm in round one, and then take over from there. If he can get this fight to the ground, he may have a chance to finish it, especially on top.
Rogerio de Lima (+180) has a 15-5-1 record and is 4-3 in this UFC. He has lost two of three bouts and hoping to restart his career by changing divisions. He has always been a powerful, explosive fighter, and we will see how well that translates to the HW division. De Lima is a powerhouse early, he is very quick and explosive and throws everything with full power. He has nasty leg kicks and strong body kicks. He is very quick in the pocket with his hands and will throw wild hooks and overhands with fight ending intentions. He walks his opponents down and keeps very heavy pressure in round 1, and all his UFC wins are first round finishes. He will start to slow significantly as the fight goes on and was mainly a first round finish or bust fighter at 205. At heavyweight, if he can keep his speed and explosion longer into the fight it will be very beneficial for him. He has a solid chin, only being finished one time by strikes and major power himself with 11 KO/TKOs and one win via submission due to punches.
De Lima is a strong guy and has very good take down defense. He has strong hips and a great sprawl. He also does a good job of landing short shots in close or in the clinch and getting the better of the dirty boxing exchanges. He can be taken down off caught kicks, or if someone really chains together attempts but I doubt that happens much in this bout. On top he is strong with ground & pound and submissions. He works quickly and has no problem unloading. He has two arm triangles submissions in his career and those are his only ones. He has been submitted 3 times and he is not good off his back. De Lima is going to do what he always does. Attack hard in round one, and I think he actually has a decent matchup to get a first round finish here. He is good on top, and I could see him finishing Wieczorek if he flops to his back.
I think the longer this fight goes, the more it will swing in favor of Wieczorek. I think early it will favor Rogerio and his KO power, but if Wieczorek can weather the storm then I think he will pick up the win. I have not been impressed with what I have seen from Wieczorek though and I think there is a decent chance he doesn’t weather the early storm here. I don’t think there are many/any underdogs that we can be confident in this week, so that makes Rogerio one of my favorite underdog plays of the week. I think he does have a clear path to victory here, and that is a 1st round KO. That is also a bunch of points on DK, so I am going to ride with him in this fight and hope he can get that KO. If he can’t, I think Wieczorek will pick up a finish of his own later in the fight. The odds for FDGTD are currently -385 and I think that looks about right. That puts both fighters in play for GPP, but I am hoping for the upset here.
On DraftKings my preferred play is Rogerio de Lima, but I expect him to be the chalk of the week in tournaments. He does have high upside here and there are a lot of wide lines on this card, so I think most people will start their LUs with de Lima as their dog. I am likely going to have over 40% of him in my LUs so I can have some leverage over the field, but he is my favorite underdog of the week for GPPs. I think Wieczorek makes sense as well and he will be much lower owned. It will be harder for him to pay off his salary at $8.6k with a win, where if de Lima can get a win at $7.6k he should crush value. But for GPPs, if de Lima is going to be the chalk and Wieczorek will be lower owned, not only will you get a low owned win with Adam getting the W, but you also kill over 35% of the field who rostered de Lima. So, I think both guys are solid plays here for GPP, but I don’t care for this fight in cash games. Both fighters do have smaller floors, so I would rather get my exposure in GPP only and target the upsides there. In cash this week, I want lower floors and I would rather target a fighter who can get 30+ points in a loss than I would the upside and low floor of Rogerio de Lima.
Winner- Rogerio de Lima via 1st round (T)KO
Montel Jackson $8,300 vs Brian Kelleher $7,900
Montel Jackson (-130) has a 6-1 record and he lost his UFC debut to Ricky Simon. Jackson is a physical freak and a bit of a phenom. He is a bantamweight with a 75” reach and hands bigger than Francis Ngannou’s. He is blazing fast and has nasty kicks, knees and straight punches. He is a south paw with a nasty jab and straight left hand. He does a great job of hand fighting with his front hand and then coming with his straight left hand. He is very accurate with his punches and has big power. He has great distance control and does a great job of sliding in and out of range and countering with long range attacks. He has great front knees to the body and the head. He also will attack with lightning fast front kicks to the body and head. He has a nice round kick to the head and body, and his kicks come fast and without being telegraphed. He is at his best when he is coming forward and stalking his opponents to the fence, in space he is accurate and extremely dangerous, but can get out volume. He has very good defense and rarely gets hit clean. He has a calmness about him and is always very aware and in the moment in the cage. He doesn’t get tired and is able to be just as effective with his striking in round 1 as round 3. Jackson is going to be the significantly faster fighter and his striking at range will give Kelleher major problems if he can’t close the distance.
Jackson is a great grappler as well. He is a great wrestler, and he was training to wrestle in the Olympics before transitioning to MMA. He does a great job of getting in the clinch, circling to the back and getting slam take downs. He also has very good high crotch slams. He has unbelievable grip strength and is able to control the wrist in the clinch. He was able to control Ricky Simón’s wrist in space with one hand while punching with the other, which I have never seen before his last fight. He has very good take down defense and is hard to take down and hold down. He does a great job of shucking off attempts, and limp legging out of single legs. He has very good hips and is extremely long making him super hard to take down in the clinch. He can get taken down with well-timed double legs and body locks and was grinded out by one of the better fighters IMO in the 135 lb division in Ricky Simón. He was able to reverse several take downs of Simon and end up on top as well as earning take downs himself and defending a majority of them. Jackson is very explosive and able to change position very quickly on top. Jackson’s wrist control makes it very hard for his opponents to get damage off on the mat. Jackson should look to deny the take down attempts that I think Kelleher will attempt and work his striking game. I believe if Kelleher can’t take him down and is forced to strike that Jackson has a good chance of getting a finish.
Brian Kelleher (+110) has a 19-9 record and he is 3-2 in the UFC. Kelleher has been up and down in his UFC tenure, but he also is ready to throw down and bring an exciting fight. He is coming off a pretty brutal knockout loss at the hands of John Lineker and will be looking to bounce back here with a win in his home state. Kelleher has been an overachiever in his career and after a slow start has made a name for himself and beat some legends of the sport. He is very aggressive with his forward pressure and does a great job of staying in his opponents faces and not giving them a chance to breathe. He has a good jab, and he likes to throw a jab leg kick or jab body kick combination. He has a good long right hook and does a good job of landing it when his opponents are trying to circle away. He has a good left hook, in the pocket, and does a good job of throwing and moving his head off center line making him harder to hit. He has a good front kick to the body. He will throw a nice uppercut left hook in the pocket and will throw full power on his right hook. He likes to throw spinning back fists, and he will throw a right hook off it. His cardio is tremendous and he’s able to push and stay in his opponents face even in round 3. He has shown a great chin over his career, but he was brutally KO’d his last fight in a war against Lineker. He seems confident and ready to get back on the horse, but you have to wonder how that fight will affect him going forward. He has some decent pop in his shots, with 7 career KO/TKOs.
Kelleher is strong in the clinch, he does a good job of digging under hooks and landing knees and short shots. He has good control in the clinch and can bank time with control against the fence. He isn’t a great wrestler, but he will grind for doubles against the cage. He is only 4/14 on take down attempts in his UFC career. He has good take down defense himself and has a great guillotine he will attack with. He does a great job of wrapping up the neck and rolling into mount where he will still have dominant position even if he can’t finish the choke. He was able to get Iuri Alcántara in his guillotine in his UFC debut. Off his back he hasn’t shown much in the UFC, but he does a good job of getting his back against the cage and standing back up. He is a warrior and will continue to come forward until the bitter end. He needs to constantly close the distance and go for take downs in this match make it a grinding fight. If he is forced to hang around on the outside with Jackson, he will be in for a long night.
Here is the closest fight on the card, and it is out mid-range salary fight at $8.3k and $7.9k. I do think people will be forced onto this fight for most LU builds and that should make both guys somewhat popular. I think Jackson is the more talented fighter here, but Kelleher is a vet and he will be putting the pressure on Jackson from the start. I think the stand-up department should favor Jackson, but I expect Kelleher to try to close distance and get the fight against the cage to try and land take downs. If he can get takedowns here, he might be able to lock up a submission. He has also said in interviews that he thinks he will get a submission win in this fight. So, I think that is what he will be looking for. Jackson does have good wrestling though and I think he will be able to stuff a lot of Kelleher’s takedowns and keep this fight on the feet. Kelleher only has a 28.57% takedown accuracy, but he does land 1.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. 42% of his wins come via submission though, so Jackson should try to keep this standing. Jackson is also going to have a 9-inch reach advantage here, so I think if he can keep this fight standing, and at distance, he should get an easy victory here. He does also have 100% takedown accuracy of his own, so he could get takedowns as well. I would be worried about the guillotine in that case, but I don’t think I would worry about Kelleher too much off his back.
My preferred play in this fight is going to be Jackson. I think he is going to have a solid UFC career and this should be the win that puts him on the map. Kelleher is coming off a KO loss, so Jackson could hand him two in a row here, but I think a decision win is most likely. I think this will have some back and forth moments, but as long as Jackson can avoid the guillotine, and being put on his back, I think he gets the W by having the better striking and landing the more damaging blows. I think this is a great fight to target since it is in that mid-range, but I don’t hate taking a stand here and only rostering one of the two fighters. I might have a full fade on Kelleher here because with the ownership he should have, I don’t think 1-2 hedge LUs make much since because I would still be underweight. I do think this is a solid fight for cash games as well for whichever side you like. It is right there in the mid-range, so it fits nicely in most LUs, and frees up value to get up to the top plays. I think we might have a future star here with Jackson so that is who I am riding with in this fight and I will likely have over 30% of him in my LUs.
Winner- Montel Jackson via Unanimous Decision
Shane Burgos $9,000 vs Kurt Holobaugh $7,200
Shane Burgos (-310) has a 10-1 record and he is 3-1 in the UFC. Burgos is a great prospect. He is a slick striker out of Team Tiger Schulman, with a lot of confidence. He lost his first career fight via KO in his last fight, so he will be looking to bounce back here. He has a nice jab and a good overhand right. He keeps his hands low, but he has good head movement and will slip and return with counters. He does a good job of rolling with shots, but he was getting hit clean with straight punches and jabs in his last match vs Calvin Kattar. He has nasty hooks to the body, and his constant forward pressure wears his opponents down. He has decent inside leg kicks and front kicks to the body but doesn’t throw many kicks. He likes to counter with combinations in the pocket and he does a good job of making opponents pay for throwing punches. He has a very clean lead uppercut. His cardio is fantastic, and he simply doesn’t get tired. He has shown a granite chin throughout his career and relies on it with his style. He got knocked out for the first time in his career in his last fight, so hopefully he has fully recovered.
Burgos is not an offensive wrestler and won’t engage in the grappling much. He does a good job of reading level changes and lowering his level to defend them. He does a good job of limp legging out of singles or getting to the cage and circling out. When he hurts opponents, he likes to get on top and find the rear naked choke, but those were early in his career and he hasn’t gotten a submission since 2014. He has 0 take downs in his UFC career. Burgos will be most likely be looking to defend the takedowns keep it on the feet and put the pressure on Holobaugh. He is the crisper striker and if he can keep it at his distance he will have a good chance to get the win.
Kurt Holobaugh (+255) has a record of 17-5-1 and he is 0-2 in the UFC. Holobaugh has had a rough go in the UFC. He is 0-2 and got knocked out badly in his last fight against Raoni Barcelos. Holobaugh is an explosive boxer/wrestler with knockout power. He has improved his striking and has very good footwork. He does a good job of stalking his opponents to the cage and then he will unload with combinations. He has a nice jab, and he is explosive with his hook combinations. He will use a jab check left hook, and he also has a very nice 1-2. He will throw inside leg kicks as a range finder, and to set up combinations. He likes to jab to the body and then come over the top with an overhand right. He will dig with powerful hooks to the body, and he does a great job of wearing his opponents down as the fight continues. He has a nice uppercut, and he likes to finish his combinations with body kicks. He has good head movement and does a good job of He can get wide with his punches, and fighters are able to counter him. He has a great chin, but he was finished pretty brutally in his last match. He has great cardio and keeps heavy volume out there.
Holobaugh is a very strong fighter. He has strong doubles and singles and good ground & pound. He isn’t an active seeker of the take down, but he will shoot for them if he is losing the striking. He is strong in the clinch, he likes to get in the single collar and land short uppercuts. He likes to get in the clinch circle to the back and does a good job of taking the back. He has good overall take down defense, but he can be taken down by well-timed shots. I don’t see him getting taken down in this fight or see him going for very many take downs himself. This fight is going to be a war, both guys are going to come forward and throw down. I think Holobaugh has more power and better defense, but Burgos has faster cleaner hands. Holobaugh needs to try to land big shots in the pocket and land the cleaner shots over the 15 minutes.
This should be a fun fight. I like what I have seen with Burgos and I think this is a good matchup for him. Both guys fight at a high pace and I think this is one of the best fights on the card. Burgos lands 6.49 strikes per minute and Holobaugh averages 4.9 landed strikes per minute. I think these two are going to keep those heavy paces for this fight and I think these two might get FOTN because of it. I do think Burgos has the edge though because he is the more technical fighter and lands strikes from all different angles. I do think Holobaugh throws with the heavier power though, so he could land a KO on the feet, but other than that I think the edge goes to Burgos. I do think Holobaugh would be the one shooting for take downs of the two, but Burgos keeps his hands low, so he can get under hooks if that happens, and he has a 94.12% takedown defense. I think he is going to be able to keep this fight standing and I see him wearing Holobaugh out and finishing him later in the fight.
On DraftKings, Burgos is my preferred play, and I like him a decent amount. We are paying a high price tag at $9k, but he puts up such a heavy pace that I think he can 10x that price tag in a decision win. I think Holobaugh is a decent play as well because he should be low owned, and he could get a KO. We don’t know how Burgos will come back after being knocked out by Kattar, so Holobaugh could hand him two in a row. If he is able to do that at $7.2k, then he would likely be on the winning LU. He is not a guy I will be heavily invested in, but I do think I want at least one hedge LU with Holobaugh since I am high on Burgos. I think both guys are solid cash plays as well. Burgos because I think he wins the fight and gets more than 10x his salary, and Holobaugh because I think he will put up 20+ points in a loss. We can afford 1-2 losses in cash, so I want fighters with higher floors. I am looking forward to seeing how this fight plays out, but I think Burgos shows that he is a top guy in this division and I think he gets an impressive KO win in the 2nd half of the fight. His ITD line is +105 and I think that is too low, personally.
Winner – Shane Burgos via 2nd round (T)KO
Lando Vannata $8,900 vs Matt Frevola $7,300
Lando Vannata (-300) has a 9-3-1 record and is 1-3-1 in the UFC. Vannata is an immensely talented fighter who just didn’t show up in his most recent fight. He has been in two major wars in the UFC with Tony Ferguson and Bobby Green, and you have to wonder if that has taken a toll not just on his body but his mind. I heard in a recent interview with James Lynch, Vannata speaking about using a mental coach heading into this fight and his last loss being all mental. Vannata is a long-time staple of the Jackson-Wink camp and a dynamic striker with good wrestling. He has tremendous movement, is very flowy and hard to time. He is constantly faking, fainting and trying to keep you thinking. He will keep his hands low and use very good head movement to avoid shots and come back with counters. He has very crisp punches nice combinations and really has nice kicks. He will throw sanchai kicks, spinning heel kicks, extremely fluidly. His KO of John Makdessi was a thing of beauty. He has nice leg kicks. He has a good spinning back fist. His chin is solid he has never been finished with strikes in his career and been in some wars. He has 4 KO/TKOs himself.
He has a good spinning back fist. He is a former wrestler and will shoot on some take downs, but doesn’t have great finishing ability after he gets guys down. He is extremely fast and athletic and will dart in and dart out making it hard for his opponents to find their range. He is very hard to hold down. Teymur took him down a couple times but could not hold him down. I don’t see him shooting for takedowns at all in this matchup and using his wrestling in reverse to keep it on the feet. He has a few submissions, he has gotten a rear naked choke heel hook and arm triangle. Vannata was grinded out in the clinch in his last fight but it was against one of the better clinch fighters in the division in Klose. Vannata should look to keep space and try to pull Frevola into his shots and counter. He also will probably be looking to set up a one-shot knockout with kicks.
Matt Frevola (+250) is 6-1 and he lost his UFC debut to Polo Reyes. Frevola is very aggressive and likes to walk opponents down and throw hard hooks. He has a good straight right hand, and he will double up on it, and then shoot a single or double leg. He likes to throw a kick to the body and then a straight right-hand combo. He has decent head movement, but he drops his hands after he throws and gets hit clean. He also is not the most athletic fighter and his hand speed is not up to par with Vannata or most fighters at the UFC level. He doesn’t have huge power, and just has one KO finish in his UFC career. He got finished badly in his last match, so we have to monitor how his chin will be moving forward.
He is a solid wrestler, and he does a good job of setting up his shots with punches. He has good double legs and single legs especially when he has fighters against the cage. He will go for the take down right away to start a round if he feels his opponents are weak there in the previous round and does a good job of keeping top control and grinding fighters out. He seems to not be the greatest in the Jiu-Jitsu realm, and in his DWCS fight he was swept multiple times and threatened with and arm bar. He has good chokes and is able to get different variations such as anaconda chokes. He has good cardio and comes in shape ready to stay in his opponent’s face. He is going to need to wrestle against Vannata. He cannot stay at distance for long because he will be in constant danger there in my opinion. He needs to close the distance quickly and grind out Vannata.
This is Vannata’s 6th fight in the UFC, and it is probably his easiest matchup so far on paper. The UFC did not do this guy any favors by giving him Ferguson for his short notice debut, and then 4 other solid fighters after that debut loss. However, I think they might be doing him a favor here. Frevola is going to be aggressive and push forward, and I think that is where Vannata will excel and I think he could land a KO early in the fight. I do think this will be one of the higher paced fights on the card, so I think both guys are in play for that reason. I just have to favor Vannata from what we have seen with these two guys, and he can win this fight on the feet or on the ground. If Frevola looks anything like he did against Reyes, then I don’t think he will last long in this fight either.
On DraftKings, I like Vannata and I think he is in play in all formats. I think he could finish this fight in any round, and if he does get a decision win then I think he would still pay off his $8.9k salary. I like most of the guys in this $9k range so I will be mixing them all into my LUs this weekend. I am not sure which ones will make the cash LU, but I think Vanatta is in there as I type this. I want this fight in over half of my LUs because I think it will be one of the higher paced fights for as longs as it lasts. I will probably have over 30% Vannata here, so that makes me want at least 15-20% Frevola as well. If he can win a high paced fight at $7.3k, then he has a shot at being on that $25,000 lineup. I also am high on Vannata, so I want to hedge with Frevola and I would prefer to be overweight on him instead of just a 1 LU hedge. This is a solid fight to target both sides of for GPP, but I think I would avoid Frevola in cash games and punt elsewhere. He could get finished in rd 1, so I would rather look for a higher floor elsewhere, unless you think he wins this fight. Vannata does have a better ITD line than Burgos at -129 and he is $100 cheaper. Both great plays but if you are stuck between the two, leaving the $100 on the table and going with Lando instead isn’t a bad idea.
Winner – Lando Vannata via 2nd round (T)KO
Lyman Good $9,500 vs Ben Saunders $6,700
Lyman Good (-600) has a 19-4-1 record and he is 1-1 in the UFC. Good is returning from a USADA suspension and over a two-year layoff. Good is a slick striker, and a strong athlete. He has a nice jab, and a very accurate straight right hand. He does a good job of slipping punches and returning with counter hooks in the pocket. He has nice hard leg kicks. His footwork and forward movement are very good, and he does a great job of cutting off his opponents not chasing and always keeping them on the back foot. He does a great job of digging with hooks to the body. He has very good defensive tendencies and always has a high guard and good head movement. In his last fight against Zaleski Dos Santos he was hesitant to get in the pocket and throw due to fear of being knocked out, so he may be a guy who won’t fully go for it in future fights. He has a great chin and has never been finished. His punches are extremely clean and accurate with big power, he has 9 KO/TKOs in 19 wins.
He isn’t an active seeker of take downs, but he is a strong fighter and has very good take down defense. He does a great job of getting in the clinch and landing hard knees to the body. He will also throw hard hooks to the body in the clinch as well. He is very hard to take down and has great balance and hips. He does a good job of limp legging out of single legs and sprawling on doubles. He has defended 86% of take downs in the UFC and other than Ben Askren I haven’t seen a fighter take him down and hold him down continuously. He has 3 rear naked chokes himself, but he isn’t a big submission threat. He has good cardio and the ability to push for all three rounds. Good is going to be the much cleaner crisper striker, and he will want to strike from the outside. He should look to keep his jab in Saunders face and try to pull him into his straight overhand right and knock him out.
Ben Saunders (+450) has a 22-10-2 record with a UFC record of 9-7. Saunders is back again, coming back very quickly after a submission loss to Sérgio Moraes. Saunders has been extremely active in 2018 and this is his 3rd fight in five months. Saunders is a long fighter and likes to throw a lot of long straight punches and kicks from the outside. He will throw front kicks and head kicks, but he doesn’t set the kicks up well and fighters are able to close the distance on him. He has good right hooks, and a nice straight right. He does a good job of walking opponents down and keeping heavy pressure on opponents. He can do a lot of reaching to get the clinch and trying to grab the Thai clinch from too far out and get hit with over hands. His chin is going, and he can get rocked even with smaller shots. He does have an iron will, and guys have to really put him out to finish the job. He isn’t a KO striker, but he does have 9 knockouts in his career. He has been finished with strikes 6 times, and 3 times in his last 7 fights.
Saunders likes to get the Muay Thai plum clinch and throw elbows and knees to the body and head. He was able to catch Jake Ellenberger with a knee to the body and finished him with it in his last fight. He does a good job of digging one under hook and landing knees to the body. He will try to get in the clinch, and get body lock takedowns, but he doesn’t have very good wrestling. He only has two take downs in his entire UFC career. He has solid take down defense and is pretty hard to get down. If you do get him down, he has a good rubber guard, and he has one of the only omaplata victories in UFC history. He can get his guard passed and neutralized by heavy top pressure as we saw with Patrick Coté, and Moraes was able to methodically pass his guard and submit him. To me Saunders cannot fight in space in this matchup. He needs to get in the clinch and grind this fight out. If he can safely close the distance, he has the ability to catch Good with a big shot in the clinch and hurt him.
I think this is an easy matchup for Good and he should get a finish here. I think Saunders will need to get a submission in order to win this fight and I just don’t see that happening. I think the only real question here is how fast will Good finish Saunders? His ITD line is -237, and Good wins in round 1 is +140. That tells me that he probably finishes this fight early, and I think he has a great shot at scoring over 100 points, as well as being the highest scorer on the card. With Saunders, I think we are relying on a sub only, so he is a GPP play only this week, and one I am not that interested in. I think Good is in play in all formats though and I see him getting a KO win in the 1st or 2nd round. I don’t think Saunders has much left in the tank and Good packs more than enough power to knock Saunders out cold.
On DraftKings, Good is the play here, it’s just a matter of affording him. With him at $9.5k, it is hard to get both him and DC in your LUs, so you will probably have to choose between the two. Good will be lower owned, so I think that is a solid GPP pivot, but I like both guys and I will have one or the other in almost every LU of mine. Saunders is cheap, so if you like him more than the other fighters priced around him, then I think he is a fine GPP punt, but I won’t have much if any of him in my personal LUs. He does allow you to pay up for a lot of other favorites, and he could possibly get a finish in this fight, so those are the only plusses I am seeing for him this week.
Winner – Lyman Good via 1st round (T)KO
Julio Arce $9,200 vs Sheymon Moraes $7,000
Julio Arce (-335) has a 15-2 record and he has won both of his UFC fights. Arce has jumped onto the scene so far in 2018. He is 2-0 with two brilliant performances. He’s another striker with crisp boxing out of Tiger Schulmann’s camp and he has several teammates on the team on the card which could only help his training environment. Arce is a very composed and professional fighter, he keeps a steady work rate and gets better as the fight goes on. He has a very nice jab, and he will double and triple up on it and go to the body with it. He has nice round kicks to the body and head, as well as front kicks to the body. He has a nasty one two right down the pipe. He does a great job of skipping in with the jab and following with the straight left. He has great composure in there and the ability to weather a storm and come back and take over. He has great footwork, both forwards and backwards and is very defensively sound. When he sees his opponents wilting he is very fast and cuts the cage off with jabs and straight rights really going for the finish. He is extremely coachable, and he will listen to his corners instructions in between rounds and follow them to a tee. He doesn’t have one punch knockout power and is more of a volume fighter, with only 4 KO/TKOs. He has a great chin and has never been finished via strikes.
Arce isn’t an offensive grappler, and won’t look for many takedowns, but he does a good job of catching kicks and taking fighters down. He will grab the single collar clinch when fighters get inside on him and throw nice uppercuts. He is slick on the ground and works quickly. He loves to take the back and he will get the body triangle and has awesome back control. He has 5 rear naked chokes and does a good job of sliding his arm under the neck. He has great take down defense and has yet to be taken down in the UFC. He fought a good wrestler like Dan Ige and defended all 12 of his takedowns. He has phenomenal cardio and picks up as the fight goes on. He loves to fight and is very calm in the octagon and will be coming in here with major confidence.
Sheyman Moraes (+275) has a 10-2 record with a 1-1 UFC record. Moraes is a big scary Brazilian Muay Thai striker. He got a split decision win in his last fight in a close fight with Matt Sayles. He has a nice jab, and a solid right hook. He will dig to the body and then come up over the top with straights and hooks to the head. He has nasty round kicks both to the head and body, with big power. He throws nice standing elbows with both arms, and overall is a dangerous guy. He isn’t very high output and can get out-volumed over three rounds. He does a decent job of walking opponents into shots and counter punching, but he is a bit flat footed and slows as the fight goes on. He has big power with 5 KO/TKOs in 10 wins.
Moraes is not a wrestler, but he is good in the clinch and has solid BJJ. He does a good job landing knees to the body and nice short elbows. He has strong knees in the Muay Thai clinch. He has average take down defense but can be taken down. He is pretty good off his back and has good triangles and leg locks. He does a good job of sweeping to top position where he is dangerous. He has good ground and pound. He has no submissions himself and has been submitted in both his losses. Moraes needs to try to finish this fight quickly IMO. He needs to start fast and try to land a big shot or big kick and put Arce out. Moraes slows as the fight goes, and Arce picks up, so I think it favors Arce after round 1.
This is a great fight for Arce. He is the more active fighter on the feet landing 5.57 sig strikes per minute compared to Moraes’ 3.08, and on the ground, I think he should dominate and probably pick up a submission. I do think Moraes is the much more dangerous striker on the feet though, so if he can keep this fight standing then he for sure has a chance at pulling off the upset here and he could get a KO. I think the early portion of this fight should favor Moraes, but the later the fight goes the edge will shift to Arce. He is a late starter and he doesn’t land takedowns, so I think he will be forced to stand with Moraes most of the fight. Moraes will be dangerous early but should slow down late and I think Arce starts to dominate after the halfway mark.
On DraftKings, I don’t love this fight, but both guys are somewhat in play. I think $9.2k is a bit much for Arce, so I would probably prefer to have Moraes at $7k and hope for that early KO. For GPPs, I would rather take that punt shot and it allows you to pay up for a few top guys. For cash, I think Arce is the better play because he should win this fight. I just don’t love him for GPPs because I think it will be tough for him to reach value at that high price tag. I do prefer the other $9k spots more, but I think Arce will be low owned this weekend and if you want to take a shot on him for that reason in the big $10 contest, I think that is fine. I would avoid him in the single entry and 3-entry max LUs though, personally. I will not have much exposure to this fight overall.
Winner – Julio Arce via 3rd round submission.
Sijara Eubanks $9,400 vs Roxanne Modafferi $6,800
Sijara Eubanks (-475) has a 3-2 record and she is 1-0 in the UFC. This is a rematch of a fight that was actually very close on TUF last year that Eubanks won via decision. Eubanks has gone through a whirlwind of emotions lately, getting a title shot to not having a fight to now fighting Roxanne in the prelims. Eubanks feels disrespected and is fired up to make a statement in this fight. Eubanks is a big powerful girl for the division that tries using that to her advantage in her fights. She is a BJJ black belt and her game plan in every fight is to get the fight to the ground and land her ground and pound and look for submissions. She showed major improvements on the feet in her last fight. She used to be very slow and robotic with her movement and just walk forward without moving her head or faking and feinting. In her recent fight she showed nice forward movement and better defense. She was faking and moving her head more while throwing different combinations. She showed good explosive hook combinations and threw nice uppercuts. She will sit down and throw with power when she can get in range. She sometimes closes her eyes and just wings shots which I don’t like to see, but she didn’t do that in her last bout. She has nice leg kicks and was able to get a nasty head kick KO on TUF. She has 3 KO/TKOs in her 6 wins. She has never been finished with strikes and is a tough chick who will continue to press forward.
She has a good double leg and good timing on her entries. She does a good job of chain wrestling and will use the double to drive her opponents against the cage and then go for a single or change levels and go up top for a body lock. She can shoot from too far out at times though because she is uncomfortable with the striking. She is very heavy on top and throws hard heavy elbows. She is a black belt in jiu-jitsu, but she wasn’t able to do much against Modafferi on top in their first match. She has good cardio and can keep a strong pace for all three rounds. She only has one submission herself and isn’t a big submission threat in her fights thus far. I think Eubanks has a speed advantage on the feet, but she has to figure out how to get inside. If she can get her boxing combinations going I see her getting takedowns and being able to win the fight.
Roxanne Modafferi (+380) has a 22-14 record with a 1-2 UFC record. Modafferi is coming off a win in a rematch of a fight she previously lost against Barb Honchak and is riding a high. She has had 3 rematches of fights she’s lost and won all 3. Roxanne is awkward on the feet, she isn’t very athletic and has stiff, slow movements. She has gotten better at accentuating her reach and trying to make her punches long instead of loopy. She has a solid jab and improved head and lateral movement. She will throw straight punches, but sometimes struggles to find range and throws at air. She has ok hand speed and can land the straight right hand. She will throw inside leg kicks, high kicks and tries to be tricky throwing question mark kicks and spinning back fists. She tries to keep high volume and throw a lot of shots. She doesn’t have knockout power, but she has a strong chin and lives up to her nickname of the happy warrior. She has only been finished twice in her career.
She doesn’t have great take down defense, but she is good off her back. She has good armbars and triangles and is active off her back. She can get hit with ground & pound elbows. She has gotten better at entries for her judo trip takedowns and clinch takedowns. She got a nice double leg take down against Barb Honchak and has pretty solid timing. She also had a good reversal of a takedown and ended up on top. She can get bullied in the clinch and controlled like she was vs Emily Whitmire and Nikko Montaño. She was taken down by Sijara Eubanks multiple times. She is good in scrambles and if she gets on top she will land hard heavy elbows and go for the finish. She probably has the best mount in the division, and when she gets there has phenomenal control and throws hard punches and elbows. She has finished many recent fights this way. She can get an armbar or a RNC. She slows down as the fight goes on but has decent cardio. She has finished her last 4 wins and has lost the last three by decision. She finishes a lot of her fights via submission or ground and pound and has finished 12 of her 22 wins. She has been submitted 3 times in her career. This is a huge fight for both girls with a win either one will be right there for a title shot. I see Roxanne wanting to keep this fight on the feet. She is a better range striker than Eubanks and was winning the striking exchanges in their first fight. The only problem is she will need to be able to keep Eubanks off her and I’m not sure she has the power to do that. If she gets out on her back she should try initially to go for a sweep or a quick take down, but if she cannot get it work to stand back up. The key to victory for Roxanne is keeping it on the feet, and using volume and range striking.
These two fought on their season of The Ultimate Fighter, and it was a somewhat close fight. Eubanks was the better fighter though and she is still going to have much more power again in the rematch. I see this fight going pretty much like their first fight did, and I think Eubanks gets another decision win. The issue with her is that she is $9.4k on DK, and it will be tough to pay that off with a decision win if the fight is close at all. I think she will be the more dominant fighter and will control where this fight takes place. I think she will land multiple takedowns and land shots on the ground, but her ITD line is +305 and that’s not something I want to see when I am paying $9.4k for a fighter. I would much rather just move up to Good or DC. I think Roxy could keep this fight close, but I think we could need some bad judging for a win here, or a submission hope. I do not hate her price though, and I think she is my favorite cash punt since she should put up 15-minutes’ worth of points.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is going to be Roxy. Just because I don’t want to pay $9.4k for Eubanks. I would rather find $100 or $200 and move up to guys who should finish their fights. There aren’t many dogs to be confident in this week, so I wouldn’t be shocked if 5 wins won a GPP for this card. That is not usually likely but has happened multiple times before. I think Roxy can put up 30+ points in a loss, and she is only $6.8k, so I think she is worth a few shots even in GPP. However, I think the best place to get your Roxy investment is in cash games, and she will very likely be in mine.
Winner – Sijara Eubanks via Unanimous Decision
Jason Knight $8,800 vs Jordan Rinaldi $7,400
Jason Knight (-260) has a 20-5 record and he is 4-4 in the UFC. Jason Knight has hit a rough patch after a promising start to his UFC career. He started his UFC career 4-1 but has lost 3 consecutive bouts. He is an action fighter, and always comes to scrap and bring a show for the fans. He is training at Team Alpha Male for this camp, and says he’s trying to turn into a more cerebral fighter who thinks more in there. Knight has a good jab, and a nice oblique kick to the knee and low leg kick. He will throw a lot of volume out there and walk forward throwing a lot of front kicks to the body. He will occasionally throw that front kick or a round kick to the head as well. He has a nice one-two and his straight right hand is probably his most powerful punch. He does a good job of landing nice uppercuts at the end of hook combinations and was able to catch and drop Amirkhani with that shot two times in his last fight. He has great cardio and very good pressure and breaks fighters with volume as fights go on. He loves to throw down and will continue to walk forward even if he’s rocked or bloodied, he will also talk shit in there and try to goad fighters into wars. He has shown a great chin over his career only being finished via strikes one time in his career, but he was dropped in his last match as well vs Makwan Amirkhani and the Lamas finish was vicious, so his chin may be going a little. He has decent power himself but is definitely more dangerous with his submission game having only 3 TKO finishes.
Jason Knight is very slick on the ground. He isn’t the best wrestler, but he will shoot doubles and singles and be relentless in his attempt to finish. If he can get the fight to the ground, he is dangerous with chokes and has very good ground & pound. He doesn’t have good take down defense and is very confident in his guard. His fight IQ was lacking in his last match as he was pulling guard after rocking and dropping his opponent. He has an awesome rubber guard, awesome elbows and a great omaplata and triangle. He will roll for knee bars and leg locks, and has no problem being on bottom. He has 13 submission victories, and you always have to be careful with him on the mat. He has never been submitted himself. His back is against the wall here with 3 consecutive losses and he needs a win here to keep his spot in the UFC. Knight needs to make this a chaotic fight and make Rinaldi uncomfortable. If Knight can get inside, close the distance land big shots and take down Rinaldi, he should be able to tire him out and look for a finish. Knight is a blood and guts fighter and I feel he knows he needs a win here and will give his all.
Jordan Rinaldi (+220) has a 13-6 record and he is 1-2 in the UFC. Jordan Rinaldi will be making the drop to 145 lbs and I feel if he can make the weight safely, he will have a good frame for the division. He is a well-rounded fighter with good striking skills and good jiu-jitsu. He is pretty fast and has solid in and out movement on the feet. He has a nice jab, and straight right hand. He likes to explode in with one shot attacks, such as lead knees, uppercuts or front kicks to the body. He has a nice head kicks, and overall fluid kicking technique. He will throw an occasional one-two, and some leg kicks. He does a great job of using his strikes to set up single and double leg take downs. He has solid lateral movement, but when he gets blitzed heavy he tends to back straight up and can be hit clean. He has a solid chin and has only been finished via strikes one time in his career. He doesn’t possess big power and has just 1 TKO finish in his career.
Rinaldi is not a great wrestler and he’s gotten out wrestled in two of his 3 UFC losses, but he does have a good ground game. He is a jiu-jitsu brown belt and has an active guard. He has strong arm bars, and a decent triangle attempt. He will attack with leg locks to sweep with top position, and he does a good job of not taking a ton of damage in his guard. He got his guard passed easily in his last match against Gregor Gillespie and got dominated on the ground. Gillespie is one of the best wrestlers in college history, and I doubt that many fighters have that level of top game. Rinaldi has good take downs himself, he does a good job of setting up single legs and he has decent double legs as well. On top he likes to work to the back where he will look for the rear naked choke. He has solid top control, and he does a good job of winning scrambles and staying on top. He has 8 career submissions, and a wide array of them. He has 4 rear naked chokes, two arm bars, an inverted triangle key lock, and a von flue choke. He has solid cardio, and he has fought solid competition over his career. Rinaldi should look to try to keep this fight on the feet to start rounds and try to use his volume striking game to outwork Knight and keep him at the end of his shots. He should look for take downs at the end of the rounds to seal them, but he needs to be careful on the mat as Knight is very tricky there.
This fight is interesting. Knight looked great in his first few UFC fights, but he is on a 3-fight losing streak here. Rinaldi is dropping weight to make 145 here, so I think he will be the bigger guy, so I am looking forward to seeing how this new weight class works out for him. I think Knight is the clear favorite here though because he should be much better on the feet. Not only that, but he has dangerous submissions from the bottom, so he can win this fight in multiple ways. His ITD line is -101, so he has a good chance of getting a finish in this fight. Rinaldi should be the stronger guy here though, so if he can get takedowns and avoid the submission, I can see a decision path to victory for him. Or even a submission. I do think he will be at a big disadvantage on the feet though, so he will need to get this to the ground and keep top control to get the win.
On DraftKings, I think both sides are in play here. I can see both guys paying off their price tag, so I think both will be in my player pool. I am going to be mixing in the underdogs in this range though, so I think I will be more exposed to Rinaldi here. Knight can be taken down, and he likes his submission game from the bottom, so he will accept being taken down. Rinaldi isn’t bad himself on the ground, so I think he can grind this fight out if he can get takedowns avoid getting submitted. It’s not a play I love, but it’s hard to love any of these underdogs this week IMO. I don’t think either guy will be highly owned, so I think this is a solid fight to target both sides of. Whoever is your preferred play, I think they should be in a few LUs if you are multi-entering. You could even do a 1 LU hedge with the other guy and I think that works for this fight. I am looking forward to seeing how it plays out, and if I am higher exposed to Rinaldi then I will be rooting for him. However, Knight is the pick to win here and I think he gets back on track with a decision win.
Winner – Jason Knight via Split Decision
Israel Adesanya $9,100 vs Derek Brunson $7,100
Israel Adesanya (-320) has an undefeated 14-0 record and he 3-0 in the UFC. Adesanya has burst on to the UFC scene in 2018. He is looking to run his record to 4-0 in his first calendar year in the company and get his highest profile win to date over Derrick Brunson. Adesanya’s stand up game is on another level than his MMA opponents. He is a technician. He likes to snipe at you with single shots while using great footwork and head movement to be out of the way of his opponent’s shots. His head movement and slipping ability is incredible. He throws nice long straight shots and finishes with hard leg kicks or will go high with the head kick. He does a great job of sliding in and out of range, and always controlling distance. He has a nasty straight right hand, and a good knee to the body. He is creative with his strikes as well using the cage to jump off and throwing nice spinning techniques. He has a great step in knee. He has a great left hook to the body that ends fights and does a great job of finding the openings high and low. He doesn’t worry about loading up for hard punches instead just peppering and wearing away at opponents is his preferred method. He is constantly switching stances to give his opponents new looks and attack off new angles. He is also playing with his back hand and feinting and moving it to try to get reactions out of his opponents. He has a great chin and is used to fighting against much better more technical strikers. He doesn’t have big one punch knock out power, but he is a volume guy who slowly picks at you until fighters can’t take it anymore. He is undefeated in MMA and is extremely confident coming into this match. He has won his last two fights via decision and showed good cardio in both.
Adesanya isn’t a grappler, and you will very rarely if ever seen him shoot for a take down or try to get in the clinch. He has really improved his take down defense, and even though he isn’t super bulky or muscular he is very strong in clinch positions. He does a good job of getting the Thai clinch and landing nice short elbows and knees. He has great hips and does a good job of getting his back to the cage if opponents get in on his legs where he is very hard to take down. He is very strong in the upper body clinch, and is hard to control there, he will reverse and turn fighters against the cage or disengage. He can be taken down by body locks sometimes, and when he is on his back he has a decent guard, but it is purely defensive. He doesn’t go for many submissions, but he does a solid job of controlling posture and not taking much damage. If guys take him down in the center of the cage which is very hard to do, he doesn’t have a great get up game and can be controlled from there. He did roll for a leg lock in his last fight against Tavares, it wasn’t even close but at least it is showing he is growing and confident enough to try some things in the Jiu-Jitsu realm. He has a very calm demeanor even when he is put in bad positions, and he has the confidence he will get out and get back to his feet. He will not panic, and when he returns to his feet he will still have gas and be able to attack heavy. He has never been submitted, and I actually have liked his top game from the small sample size I’ve seen. He has good control and does a good job of floating and staying on top of his opponents as they try to sweep or get up. Obviously Adesanya is going to have the major striking advantage in this fight. I think Adesanya needs to respect Brunson early, and try to stay on the outside and pull counter. He will have to stay on his feet early and if he can stuff take downs then he should be able to take over against a slowed Brunson.
Derek Brunson (+260) is 18-6 with a UFC record of 9-5. Brunson is a big, strong, explosive athlete for this division with one punch knockout power. He is extremely dangerous in the first round. He comes hard, blitzes and throws huge over hand rights. He almost attacks with a reckless abandon which has gotten him a ton of first round finishes against lesser competition, but gotten him in trouble against the elite of the division. Brunson will throw the occasional leg kick and front snap kick, while also trying to gauge distance with the jab. He sometimes doesn’t set things up and will just lunge in. He does do a good job of faking level changes in between blitz combinations making him harder to read. He does have fast hands in the pocket and will throw straight punches with both hands with bad intentions. When he has a fighter hurt he really will swarm and go for the finish. He has big power with 10 knockouts, but all of them are in round 1 and after that he slows down. He has a solid chin, but bad defense, and enters the pocket with his chin high and hands low making him an easy target. He has been finished with strikes 4 times in his career and was finished via head kick in his last matchup vs Jacare.
Brunson is a former division two all-American Wrestler. He has become more of a striker of late, but I imagine he will have a heavy wrestling game plan in this one. Brunson likes to close the distance and get the single collar tie where he is strong and will land nice hard uppercuts and short hooks. He has fast hands and can throw in combination making him dangerous even if his opponent is in a dominant clinch position like the Muay Thai plum. He has a decent double leg, but he telegraphs it and shoots from too far outside at times. When he does get in on the legs he is hard to stop from taking you down and is a strong guy. He does a good job of grabbing a single leg then going up to the body lock clinch driving his opponent to the cage and getting a double leg. If he can get on top, he has solid ground and pound and will rain down punches and elbows. He likes to get to the back and get the rear naked choke, but he isn’t a huge submission threat with just three in his career. He has never been submitted. He does get tired as the fight goes on and 21 of his 26 fights have been finished in round one. He is 3-2 in decisions and has been finished in round 3 by Yoel Romero. Brunson should look to use good footwork and composure to cut off the cage, but not be wild while using a few basic striking combinations to get into the clinch. He should try to land a straight right hand or a jab and back Adesanya to the cage and then close the distance get in the clinch, and work to take him down.
I think Adesanya is the future champ of this division. I think he has the best striking in the division, and he has proved he can keep fights standing. Brunson does not have great striking defense and he tends to just rush in swinging hands with his chin in the air open to be hit. I think it is just a matter of time before Adesanya knocks him out if he tries that in this fight. Brunson does have big power, so if he can connect with that wild style, it could work. However, I think his best chance to win this fight is by using his wrestling and taking Israel out of his game. This is only a 3-round fight, so if he can win two rounds with wrestling, and not get finished in the 3rd, then he can definitely win this fight. I just think it’s Israel’s time and the UFC put him in this fight at MSG to showcase his skills and prepare him for a title fight. If he can keep this fight on the feet, I think Israel will dominate and end this fight via KO.
On DraftKings, Israel is my preferred play. I think he has decent 1st round KO potential, and he is cheaper than 5 other fighters on the card. I do feel good about him getting the win here, so I think he is in play for cash games as well. I will have a solid amount of exposure to Israel this weekend and for that reason I do want a few hedge LUs with Brunson. I do expect Israel to have over 25% ownership, but I don’t see Brunson being highly owned at all, and for that reason I think even a few LUs will put me overweight on him. That is strictly as a hedge for me though, and if you are fading Adesanya but picking him to win, I think you should just fade Brunson as well. The one thing I don’t like about Israel is that we won’t be getting takedown points in this fight, so we pretty much need the KO at $9.1k. His ITD line is -105, so it’s obviously no guarantee that he can get that KO. For that reason, I think you can fade Israel in GPPs if you think he just wins via decision. I don’t like Brunson for cash games this week, but I think he is someone we can have low exposure to and still possibly have leverage over the field in GPPs. If he can win, he will kill off a lot of Israel LUs.
Winner – Israel Adesanya via 1st round (T)KO
Karl Roberson $8,700 vs Jack Marshman $7,500
Karl Roberson (-270) has a 6-1 professional MMA record and he is 1-1 in the UFC. Roberson is coming off his first pro loss via submission, and Marshman was submitted as well in his last match. Roberson is a former glory kick boxer and a very powerful striker. He said in an interview that he feels he is being overlooked and wants to make a statement that he is a prospect to look at for the future. He is a southpaw and has all the usual southpaw techniques such as straight left hands and liver kicks. He likes to counter punch and lure fighters into his range where he can land a hard shot. He has very strong leg kicks, and he will go high with the kick as well. He has a great straight left-hand uppercut combo. He is big for the weight class and is always measuring fighters and you can tell it makes opponents nervous. Darren Stewart was using a lot of spinning techniques to close the distance immediately and get in the clinch, while Ryan Spann shot for a sloppy takedown less than 5 seconds in. He is very fast and pinpoint and can definitely end the fight with one shot. He is tough, and I have seen him dropped badly in kick boxing twice in a round and get up and press forward and survive. He does seem susceptible to body kicks and I have seen him hurt with them but in kickboxing not MMA. He has never been finished by strikes and has 2 KO/TKOs in 6 wins.
He is a strong athlete, and an improving grappler. He is training with guys like David Branch and Corey Anderson every day, and really trying to round out his game. He is very dangerous in short range. He has huge power on his clinch elbows and knees as you saw with his quick finish of Ryan Spann. He is good at defending body lock takedowns and he showed nice awareness landing a nice throw when Stewart got off balance in the clinch. He was taken down by a well-timed shot against Muntante who has great timing on his takedowns. Off his back he didn’t show much, he didn’t have a get up game and Muntante was able to control and pass to dominant positions before eventually getting the arm triangle. On top he is very good, he has brutal ground & pound and quick back takes and rear naked chokes. He does slow down as the fight goes on, but not majorly and is always dangerous. He is still very young in his career and I expect him to look much better this time out than last. I expect him to have a big speed advantage and the tighter cleaner punches, but he still needs to be careful. Marshman has big power and is dangerous especially in round one with hooks and overhands. Roberson should look to be careful early but eventually start to pick off Marshman and open with big shots and try to get him out of there.
Jack Marshman (+230) has a record of 22-7 with 2 wins and 2 losses in the UFC. Marshman is a tough gritty striker with big power. He likes to use a lot of feints and fakes from the outside as well as stutter step movement to disguise his entries and then explode forward. He has decent head movement closing the distance and he will throw full power overhands and hooks making him very dangerous in close range. He has fast hands in the pocket and will throw three or four punches at a time. He has good footwork and does a great job of cutting off the cage and stalking his opponents to the cage. He will throw nice jabs, straight punches and closes the distance with a nice lead uppercut. He will throw straight punches and hooks to the body. He is much better when he is going forward, and when he starts to get tired and pushed back he is much less effective. He rarely throws kicks and will only throw a few leg kicks a fight. He has been finished four times and is a tough guy but has a questionable chin. He has 13 KO/TKOs and can definitely finish the fight with one shot.
He is not a good grappler and a poor wrestler. He has very bad take down defense and off his back he is not very dangerous. He has 17% take down defense in the UFC and gets taken down very easily with double legs. He is tough and has only been submitted one time, but he can be grinded out. He does have a few submissions off his back such as arm bars and triangles, but those were a long time ago vs regional level competition. He doesn’t go for takedowns, and or try to get into the clinch. If he hurts you he will get on top and has a few submission victories. Marshman slows down as well and he is most dangerous in the early rounds. I think Marshman will not change much. I see him trying to walk down Roberson using fakes and feints and then try to land his hard hooks and overhands. If he can land clean he can knockout anyone. He is a veteran and he has more experience fighting in wars, so if it gets there he may be able to pull something out.
This is a fun fight between two strikers and I expect it to end in a finish. FDGTD is lined at -205, so I think this is a solid fight to target. I think Roberson is the better all-around fighter here and I think if it goes to the ground it will be him that is taking it there. He could even pull off a submission if that happens. But Roberson is a former kick boxer and he is trying to make a name for himself at MSG, so I think he is going to be looking for the KO. Marshman is a solid vet, so he might be able to drag this fight out late and pick up the upset, but I am going to favor Roberson. I would like for him to go for takedowns in this fight because I think he would have a solid edge on the ground, but I think he is in play for the KO as well and for $8.7k I’d take either of those. If this is going to be a striking match for 15-minutes, I don’t think he pays off his value in a decision win, so we will be relying on the finish IMO. There are just too many good spots on this card that will finish, and we will likely need to have all the fighters who can get those finishes. I think Roberson has a good chance at being one of them with his -125 ITD line but I will be mixing him in with all these guys in the $8.7k-$9.1k range. That is my favorite range to target this week and Roberson is the cheapest of them, so I like that.
On DraftKings, Roberson is my preferred play and I think he is in play in all formats. I think Marshman is a decent GPP play as well because I think he will be low owned and he is much more experienced in MMA and he could get a KO of his own. He will not be going for any takedowns here though, so he will need a finish to score highly, but it is hard to find underdogs to like this week. If he is one that you like, play him. I will not have much ownership of him myself, and he will likely just be a hedge option if he makes my player pool, but if he got an early KO it wouldn’t shock me, and he would likely be on the winning LU. I am going to side with the favorite here though and hoping for a finish.
Winner – Karl Roberson via 2nd round submission
David Branch $9,300 vs Jared Cannonier $6,900
David Branch (-360) has a 22-4 record and he is 4-3 in the UFC. Branch is taking a big risk here. He is fighting a dangerous guy that not many people know. A win here would not do much for Branch, while a loss would be catastrophic. He is 37 years old and a loss at this stage almost certainly will mean he will never be a UFC champion. He needs to come in here and make a statement in this matchup and prove he is still a force to be reckoned with. Branch is a good boxer wrestler and longtime Renzo Gracie black belt. David Branch is very underrated in my opinion and has a very good style to take decisions. He has a very nice jab, and good lateral footwork. He has good kicks and will throw heavy body and head kicks. He will throw the occasional leg kick but doesn’t throw many. He will take level changes and come over the top with hooks and overhands and has solid power if he connects clean. He will fake the level change as well and come up and try to grab a single collar clinch, where he has nice uppercuts. He stays safe and doesn’t put himself in much danger on the feet, he rarely will do something stupid or divert from the game-plan. He has a good chin and has not taken much damage in his career. He has never been finished via strikes besides tapping out against Rockhold and has fought some heavy hitters such as Anthony Rumble Johnson, Louis Taylor, Dustin Jacoby, and Teddy Holder. He has power himself and has finished 6 fights via KO/TKO.
He is a great grappler and a long time Renzo Gracie Black Belt. He is very strong in the clinch positions and will close the distance grab a single collar and then is able to dig under hooks push opponents to the cage and control from there. He also has great timing on double and single leg take downs. He likes to get in the clinch against the cage and land short knees and punches while grinding out the fight. I have heard him talk in interviews about fighting with more emphasis on finishing. He said previously he didn’t have the faith in his striking to let it go, but he has had a break through and no longer cares and wants to believe in himself and go for it. It has made him dangerous in his last two matches he rocked Luke Rockhold and finished Thiago Santos in round 1. When he gets on top he has good control and is methodical with his passes while looking for submissions, but never sacrificing position. He has 7 submissions in his career. He has been submitted 1 time, but I would be shocked if he got submitted in this matchup. He has a lot of experience and great cardio. He has been in many championship and five round fights. I see David Branch looking to move early and use his jab and kicks to let Cannonier come to him, and time a level change. If he can get Cannonier down I don’t know if Cannonier will be able to stand up.
Jared Cannonier (+300) is 10-4 with a UFC record of 3-4. Cannonier will be making the move down to middleweight after back to back losses at 205 lbs. Cannonier has had a very interesting career and with a win here he would have a win in 3 different weight classes in the UFC, HW, LHW and MW. He is replacing Jacare Souza and taking this match on short notice. David Branch is coming off of a big win against Thiago Santos by KO. He has had two marquee matchups pulled out from under him recently in Yoel Romero and Jacare Souza, so I have to wonder if he is overlooking Cannonier. Jared Cannonier is a very good striker with big knockout power. He has super-fast hand combinations, especially his jab and straight right hand. He has a hands down game with incredible head movement and is able to evade punches while coming back with quick powerful counter punches. He shows a good kicking game as well, but I think he should utilize kicks more once he is more comfortable with takedown defense. He has a great switch head kick and rocked an opponent with a front kick to the face. He has nasty body kicks and his kicks are very fast and powerful. He will demoralize his opponents by walking them down with his hands down making them miss, countering them, and making them shy to throw the rest of the fight. He has big power and 5 KO/TKOs in 10 wins. He has a good chin and is willing to take punches to give punches. He has been finished via strikes two times, but those were against massive guys. Cannonier has two losses in a row, but to me Blachowicz and Reyes are top 5 LHWs. He has confidence that 185 is his weight class and will come out swinging.
He is not a great wrestler and can get taken down pretty easily. He is stronger in the clinch than defending shots and can land short elbows and has good balance and strength making him hard to take down in that position. He has problems defending single legs, and Glover was easily able to take him down continuously with the single leg. He did defend a single leg in his last fight against Dom Reyes and I’m sure he’s been working hard on that defense. He isn’t very active off his back and isn’t good at getting back up. He does have good defense and doesn’t take much damage, but he struggles to get back to his feet. If he can get on top, he is very dangerous. He has nasty ground & pound elbows, and a few career submissions. He has a rear naked choke and arm bar in his career, but he isn’t really a submission threat. He has never been submitted himself. He has great cardio and he has had big round 3s in his UFC career really taking over. Cannonier needs to use footwork and range striking to keep the fight in the middle of the cage and stay off the warning track. He has the power to knockout Branch especially at 185.
I think this is a great matchup for Branch. He should have the edge everywhere, and I think Cannonier is relying on a punchers chance. This fight is on short notice though, so we could see Branch play it safe and that would kill us at $9.3k. But I think he will go under owned this week and that makes him a solid GPP play IMO. I think he can win this fight on the feet with a KO or a decision. But on the ground, I think he dominates and if he takes is there I think he will finish. Him being low owned is what makes him a solid play. He does have that high upside and most people will pay up to the top two guys, or down to that 8.7k-9.1k range. I do think he gets the finish in this fight, but it is hard to be too invested with the possible decision outcome. If he gets a decision win at $9.3k there is almost no chance he is on the winning LU, I think.
On DraftKings, Branch is my preferred play and the only one of the two I am really interested in. I think this is a GPP only fight either way, but I would much rather have Branch. If Cannonier can get an early KO win then he will most likely be on the winning LU, but that is a risk I am willing to take here, and I will likely full fade him. I also don’t want to be overly exposed to Branch, because there are better plays on paper, but he will for sure make my player pool and I am hoping I am right about his low ownership. He has mentioned that he wants to look for finishes more and he showed that in his last fight over Thiago Santos. I think he does it again here, but I think he can win this fight anyway he wants to.
Winner – David Branch via 1st round submission
Chris Weidman $8,500 vs Jacare Souza $7,700
Chris Weidman (-160) is the former middleweight champion and he has a record of 14-3 and a UFC record of 10-3. This is a fight that I have been wanting to see for years. Chris Weidman was expecting to fight Luke Rockhold in a rematch, but now Jacare will be replacing him. Chris Weidman has had a lot of injuries recently and been very inactive, but I thought his last performance against Kelvin Gastelum was excellent. This will be his first fight in a little over a year, but he says he feels great and is ready to get a finish in New York. Weidman is long for the division and has gotten better at using his reach. He will throw out a nice jab and a front kick to the body and stays at his range on the feet. He has a nice straight right hand, and he will fake the level change and throw that or a hook with good power. He does a good job of it, if he can cut you off against the cage flurrying and throwing 3,4 jabs and mix in some hooks and uppercuts. He is very resilient, he got dropped badly in his last fight against Kelvin Gastélum and he immediately got in on a single leg and survived. He has taken a lot of damage and been finished brutally by both Yoel Romero and Luke Rockhold. His finish against Mousasi I don’t think was really that bad in terms of big damage. He has 6 KO/TKOs himself and definitely has big power.
Chris Weidman is a phenomenal grappler and very credentialed. He is a 2-time division 1 All American wrestler, a black belt in jiu-jitsu and a ADCC Gold Medalist. He has an amazing single leg, and takes everyone down with it. He has very nice body locks and will immediately land in side control. He does a great job of if he can’t get the single staying attached coming up digging and under hook and chain wrestling. On top he has great control and is very methodical in his approach. He will slowly work into dominant positions and loves to get to a wrestling ride position or full mount, and then back control. He has a good rear naked choke, kimura and arm triangle. He has been working with John Danaher for a long time who is one of the best BJJ minds in the world. He has been on top of great guys like Maia and couldn’t really control him but didn’t get in any danger or swept. He has never been submitted and has 4 submissions himself. He has great take down defense and the only fighter who has exploited him on the ground is Luke Rockhold. He has great cardio and is used to being in championship fights and persevering. He needs a win here to keep his championship hopes alive. I think Weidman should look to just keep his distance land his jabs front kicks and keep range and late takedowns to seal rounds.
Jacare Souza (+140) has a 25-6 record and he is 8-3 in the UFC. Jacare is trying to bounce back from a tough loss against Kelvin Gastélum in Brazil. Jacare is a very strong physical Middleweight. He will slowly walk you down and doesn’t use a lot of footwork or lateral movement, but just try to walk you down, land hard shots and eventually grab a hold of you. He likes to really sit down on his right hook and put a lot of power into it. He will lunge into hooks to close the distance and get the clinch. He has big power but is a little stiff and plodding and throws very little combinations. He will throw a front kick to the body a left hand or a right hook. He has powerful kicks and even if he lands on the guard he can stun you. He knocked Derek Brunson out with a head kick. He is not the fastest guy on the feet, and that has been exploited in his last two fights. His last fight he did an excellent job of bringing very heavy pressure even after getting dropped and throwing his all into his shots. It was hard to see if he had much power left because they didn’t seem to effect Gastelum much and he was gassed after round one. He has a good chin and showed it in his last fight but took a ton of damage and he was finished in his previous fight vs Robert Whitaker. Those two fights have had to take a toll and at 38 you have to wonder how much he has left. He has six knockouts himself and definitely has finishing power.
Jacare is one of the best Jiu-Jitsu fighters in MMA history and is actually a pretty strong wrestler. He has strong double legs, especially against the cage and he does a good job of setting it up with his overhand right. He likes to get in the clinch against the cage, and he is very strong there he has nice trips and good judo throws. He has good take down defense himself, but it isn’t tested very much as fighters are hesitant to go to the ground with him. Souza has one of the best top games in the sport. He has phenomenal passing ability and will move through opponent’s guards like butter. He likes to move to half guard where he will look for arm triangles and has good control before moving to side control where he has a nasty kimura. He has great back takes and very good back control. If he gets on top his opponents are usually not getting up. His cardio has been very questionable lately and if he can’t get take downs he usually gasses out. Jacare needs to close the distance in this fight and keep heavy pressure on Weidman. Even if he isn’t effective with takedowns he should try them to create striking opportunities. Jacare needs to always be moving forward throwing hard hooks overhands level changing coming back over the top with knees and just try to make Chris move backwards and land on that chin. I don’t think he will be effective in trying to take down Weidman and has a better chance of landing a shot and knocking him out. He was using very heavy forward pressure in his last fight with no fear of being taken down and was able to land shots and keep kelvin moving backwards most of the time because of That. That is why I think that Weidman needs to take Jacare down to be successful in this fight. If Jacare can find a submission off his back that would be very impressive.
I have been looking forward to this fight for years. I wish it took place years ago, but I am still glad we finally get to see it. I think a few years ago in their primes we would have seen a much more exciting fight. Now I think both guys will respect the other and neither will push a high pace, and we could see a slow paced striking battle with two of the best ground fighters in the division. I would like to see this fight take place on the ground, I just don’t know that we will see a lot of that. I do think Weidman will be the guy going for takedowns, but I think they would be more used to steal the round late after a back and forth striking fight. That is just how I see it playing out in my head and I think Weidman gets his hand raised with a decision. I think if this fight hits the ground it will be fun to see how it plays out. On the feet, I think Weidman will be the guy fighting at the higher pace which is what I think will ultimately win him a decision. However, Jacare is the more dangerous fighter here and I think if there is a finish in this fight that he is the more likely winner. For that reason, I think he is the better GPP play in this fight.
On DraftKings, Jacare is going to be my preferred play, just for that finishing upside. If he doesn’t get a finish I don’t think he scores highly. Same goes with Weidman but I think he has a much higher ceiling in a decision win. I would rather just save the money if I was using this fight and I’d take the $7.7k fighter with finishing upside over the $8.5k who I think wins a lower paced decision. I think either guy is in play for cash if you like the LU you have around them, but I’m not sure if it makes my cash LU or not at this point. This is a fight I would much rather just watch and enjoy than I would invest heavily into either side. I will be more heavily invested into Jacare but I think you can fade this fight if you want and target elsewhere. Both sides should gain ownership with the big names and this being the co-main event, so I think that makes it a good fade if you are making 1-5 LUs. Jacare would be the only guy I would target with that few LUs and I don’t think I would get exposure to Weidman unless I was making 10 or more.
Winner- Chris Weidman via Unanimous Decision
Daniel Cormier $9,600 vs Derrick Lewis $6,600
Daniel Cormier (-700) is the Light Heavyweight and the Heavyweight champion of the world. He has a record of 21-1-1 with a UFC record of 10-1-1. DC is taking this fight on short notice, and he has had a prior hand injury. Those things make this fight a little more interesting. Skill wise Cormier is in another universe. He is one of the pound for pound greatest fighters of all time and is he beaten a who’s who at HW and LHW. He is coming off a dominant first round knockout of Stipe Miocic, undefeated at HW and extremely confident. Cormier has good boxing, he has a very nice jab, and likes to finish combos with leg kicks. He is always faking level changes and lunging into his shots to make it easy to clinch if he wants and threatening the take down. He is at his best when he is walking fighters down, and when he gets opponents moving backwards he is almost unstoppable. It is extremely hard to tell if he is going to shoot or strike, and he starts to take over. He has a tremendous chin and has only been finished one time by Jon Jones. He has big power showing that with his knockout of Stipe Miocic and he has 10 KO/TKOs in his career.
The former Olympian is one of the best grapplers to ever grace the octagon. His clinch work is great, and he probably is most dangerous with his striking from there. He has a nasty uppercut in close, and he will also fake like he is grabbing a single collar clinch and throw a big left hook. He likes to get double under hooks and land big knees to the body. Cormier’s take downs are phenomenal. He has a great high crotch single leg, he also has very nice clinch take downs. He is very heavy on top and the only fighter I have seen stand up from under him is Jon Jones. He likes to move to half guard and will throw big ground & pound. He will look for kimura’s and arm bar from half guard, and then likes to improve position get to mount make you give his back and get a rear naked choke. Cormier has amazing cardio and pushes an incredible pace. He has 4 submissions, and never been submitted himself. I see Cormier being a bit careful early, and then trying to use his jab and leg kicks to close distance get in the clinch and wear down Lewis. The farther it goes the easier it will be for Cormier to take him down and hold him down while looking for opportunities to finish.
Derrick Lewis (+500) has a 21-5 record and he is 12-3 in the UFC. Derrick Lewis grabbed victory out of the jaws of defeat with a last second knockout to defeat Volkov, add that to an epic post fight speech and you get this title fight. Lewis maybe isn’t the most deserving of the shot, but at 9-1 in his last 10 fights he has definitely earned it. Lewis is fighting less than 1 month after a war with Volkov so I’m unaware if that will affect him in this fight. Lewis is a pretty good boxer and can close the distance with powerful combinations. He is very explosive for someone his size and can close the distance extremely quickly. Lewis will be very inactive and look like he is not doing much on the feet at all, and then explode in with a powerful blitz attack and finish the fight. He has a decent jab, and a good very good right hook. He likes to counter with a right hook in the pocket and does a good job of moving his head of center line and landing while making you miss. He is very good in the dirty boxing range and has nice short hooks and uppercuts and can generate knockout power in incredibly short distances. He is surprisingly athletic for a fighter his size and shows that with his bountiful kicking game. He will use an array of kicks, ranging from the front kick to the body, to a switch kick to the head. He can sometimes throw the high kick blind, but it is extremely powerful, and his opponents are forced to respect and block it. Lewis will slam the kick into his opponent’s arms, and if he can knock them off balance he will explode with a punching combination. Lewis has no problem getting in the pocket and throwing down with you and will bite down on the mouth piece and go to war. He is a tough guy and some people say he is a quitter or mentally weak, but I completely disagree. Lewis has been finished by strikes 3 times, but he has a pretty good chin, and the ability to take shots. He is susceptible to body shots but is tough and will battle through it. The bottom line is you always have to be careful with the “Black Beast”. He is the definition of a knockout artist with 16 KO/TKO’s to his name.
Derrick Lewis is an underrated grappler. He is good in the clinch, he does a great job of getting under hooks and digging with big knees to the body, he did this very effectively against Roy Nelson. He is also extremely dangerous in the dirty boxing realm, he can generate power in his short hooks and uppercuts that is not normal, and have fighters twitching on the canvas. He will shoot for take downs, he likes to get double legs against the cage, and will occasionally try to get a body lock take down. He does a good job of defending takedowns, reversing and getting on top himself as well. Lewis has some of the best G&P in the history of MMA, it is absolutely devastating. He will throw huge hammer fists and elbows, and if he can pass your guard into mount the fight is as good as over. He is extremely heavy and almost impossible to get up from under. If he gets on top of Cormier, or anyone for that matter they are in serious trouble. Off of his back he isn’t dangerous, but he has an uncanny ability to just stand up when he wants to. He will just belly down give his back and stand right up. Fighters haven’t been able to take his back and or stop him from disengaging the clinch when he stands up, proving just how physically strong Lewis is. Cormier said he was going to arm bar him if he tries that, so we will see if he will still try it. Lewis cardio is very questionable, and I don’t see him having the cardio to go five rounds. Lewis needs to come out and go for broke in round 1, it’s tough to imagine him winning any other way than by KO, and he has that punchers chance vs anyone.
This is the best fight to target on the card and the easiest fight to predict. The only chance Derrick Lewis has to win this fight is via KO. That’s it. If this fight hits the ground it should be complete domination from DC and he could finish any round he wants to. Submission or (T)KO. I think DC is the better stand-up fighter as well, but he is playing with fire if he stands the entire time. I think he will test out Lewis on the feet early in the first, and then I see him taking him down and wearing him out with GNP. I think he could finish in round 1 and score well over 100 points, but I see him taking this to rounds 2 or 3 and really tiring Lewis out showing that he is one of the best fighters in the world. I think he scores over 100 points no matter what round he finishes, but he will finish this fight at some point.
On DraftKings, DC is my favorite play on the board and he is going to be my highest owned guy. Lewis is always worth a shot or two for his KO power. He is the cheapest fighter on the card and if he gets the KO then he is on the winning LU. So, I won’t fully fade him. But he will have 15-20% ownership so we also aren’t being sneaky if we use him. I do think this is an all-in type of fight, and 9/1 in favor of DC is the exposure I would likely have with 10 LUs. I also think stacking this fight in cash games is the best way to get your Lewis exposure. Just in case he gets that KO, then you have him in cash and that should be the LU you have the most money on if you are trying to grind out a long-term profit. That is probably the way I am going to get most of my Lewis exposure, but I will throw my favorite 1 or 2 Lewis LUs into GPPs because he does have that massive power. I think DC has the highest ceiling on the slate though and if he didn’t score over 100 points I would be surprised.
Winner- Daniel Cormier via 2nd round submission
Thanks again for purchasing this article and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley, and if you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
