Welcome back after a long 3 week break. In fact it was so long I became a year older (seriously though I did on the 24th)! I hope you enjoyed the break because we have 8 straight weeks of MMA goodness starting with a 13 fight card in Canada. At 1st glance this may look like a lackluster card but, I really like this card in cash games and tournaments.
We have been on a huge run in all sports at DFS Army! Especially in NBA as you can see below! If you want to join in on the winning use promo code “FORSLUND” to save 10% on your membership.
As always have some fun in tournaments this week. Just remember the Golden Rule! While chasing after the big payout is enticing always remember bankroll management. I am a firm believer in the 80-20 rule. Which is 80% of your allocated bankroll for the night in cash games and 20% in tournaments. Remember to take advantage of our Research Station and Domination Station. Plus check out the podcast, and follow me on Twitter (@MMACashAssassin) for the latest MMA and DFS Army news! Let’s break down these fights.
For those of you new to MMA here is a breakdown of the scoring used on Draftkings.
DFS MMA UFC Fight Night 138 Fighter Advice
Fights to Target In Cash
First off before I give breakdowns here. What we are looking for in cash games is safety with a nice floor. It might be taking a high priced favorite in a good spot. It could also be a value play based on odds and pricing. Often times in cash I will look to stack a fight specifically if it has the potential to go 5 rounds (always the main event on the card or a championship fight). Now both sides of a fight may not be cash viable in a fight but, at least 1 of them is under this group.
Oezdemir (-160) 8.4k vs Smith (+150) 7.8k
In cash games the best strategy is to stack this fight and move on.
Ok now that we have that out of the way let’s look at this fight for tournament’s.
Oezdemir is a solid striker (lands 5.91 SS’s per minute) and has big power. Smith is a good striker in his own right and has decent power. Looking at Vegas this fight is ending inside the distance (ITD) with a huge prop of -1200. With both priced in the midrange whoever wins this fight will be in the optimal lineup. I highly suggest getting heavy exposure to this fight in your tournament lineups on draftkings (personally I will have 100% exposure to it). You can decide for yourself how you want to do that. If you want to play it safe go 50/50. I am leaning towards going 60-40 or 70-30 myself.
Overall my preferred play is Smith. He is cheaper and will get stronger the deeper this fight goes. Oezdemir typically is a quick starter but, does tend to typically start to gas out as early as the 2nd round. In general get exposure to this fight and don’t be afraid to have more exposure to your preferred play.
Haqparast (-750) 9.7k vs Gouti (+600) 6.5k
Haqparast is a solid striker (4 SS’s per minute) and has good power. Gouti is a tough fighter. He has shown chin issuses in the past and typically gets finished in most of his fights.
Looking at Vegas they see this fight ending early (-270 Fight Ends ITD).
Looking at our DFS Army exclusive Research Station above it also agrees with this. If it’s ending early its very likely it will be Haqparast doing so (-225 to win ITD). For that reason he is very much in play in all formats on draftkings. I might actually like him more for cash games because he is the most expensive fighter on this card. Not saying he isn’t a strong play in tournaments he just needs to outscore everyone. Overall Haqparast is a solid play in all formats. Gouti doesn’t interest me at all and I will most likely be fading him completely (if building 150 lineups he might be worth a shot in 1-2 lineups because he should be very low owned).
Edwards (-470) 9.4k vs Madge (+375) 6.8k
Edwards is a good striker (6.43 SS’s per minute) and has decent power. He is a decent wrestler (D1 in college) and has solid combos. Madge isn’t that good overall. Where he excels the most is his kickboxing.
This is another fight Vegas sees ending ITD (-270). Edwards himself has an ITD prop of (-270) which, is actually higher than Haqparast. Plus he comes at a $200 savings on draftkings. I love Edwards in cash games and think he is a very solid pivot off of Haqparast in tournaments (our Research Station has him as the 2nd best value play on the entire card). Madge is worthy of maybe a punt play if you are running 150 lineups.
Strickland (-105) 8k vs Taleb (-105) 8.2k
Strickland is a solid all-around fighter. He is a solid striker (4.08 SS’s per minute) and has a very good jab. Taleb is a good striker (3.21 SS’s) and has solid power. Both of these fighters are priced in the midrange and Vegas has this as a pickem. When thats the case I tend to lean on our Research Station to see what it thinks.
I agree with our Research Station here and think Strickland makes for a solid play in cash games as well as tournaments. I like the fact he is $200 cheaper on draftkings which, allows me to pay up in other spots. While, I do like Strickland I will have some exposure to Taleb as well (not a ton just some shares). Overall Strickland is my preferred play in all formats.
Cirkunov (-320) 9.3k vs Cummins (+290) 6.9k
Cirkunov is solid all-around. He is a decent grappler and has good TD’s (4.44 per fight). Cummins is a decent striker and a solid wrestler. It is worth mentioning both fighters have shown to have chin issuses in the past.
Vegas sees this ending ITD (-270). In that scenario the most likely outcome is Cirkunov doing so (-164 win ITD). I think he is playable in all formats. I especially like him in tournaments. Its also worth mentioning our Domination Station loves him and has him as the best value on the entire card. Cummings is worth some exposure as well. In a win he will most likely be doing so via wrestling and would put up a very solid score at his 6.9k pricetag on draftkings. Overall my preferred play is Cirkunov.
Johnson (-575) 9.5k vs Lobov (+485) 6.7k
Johnson is a solid striker (4.15 SS’s per minute) and has ok power. He has quick hands and decent combos. Lobov is a tough fighter. He is a decent striker (3.38 SS’s) and has decent power.
Vegas is leaning towards this fight going to a decision (-155). For that reason alone I think Johnson is a better tournament play since in that case he won’t reach value. Lobov is very much in play for me as a cash value punt. At his 6.7k salary on draftkings we don’t need a win from him. I think he realistically has a floor of 25-30 pts plus he allows you to pay up for the high priced favorites. I don’t like him as much in tournaments. He most likely loses and in tournaments we are typically shooting for 6 wins. So, in tournaments I like Johnson more (he most likely will be 1 of my lower owned 9k fighters) and Lobov is in play as a cash savings punt.
Bhullar (-135) 8.8k vs Golm (+125) 7.4k
Bhullar is an aggressive fighter and has decent TD’s (2.05 per fight). Golm is a decent striker and has solid leg kicks. He also has decent TD defense.
Looking at our Research Station again it prefers Golm here. I tend to agree. Bhullar is very dependant on getting TD’s. I think Golm has more upside here and is playable in cash games if your construction goes this route and can afford him in your last spot. I like Golm more in tournaments personally but, he does offer odds value at his price. Overall Golm is my preferred play and will have Bhullar in 1-2 lineups if i am making 150 lineups.
Fights to Target in Tournaments
Unlike the cash fights from above. These tournament fights carry greater risk. While they may have a lower floor these fights have higher ceilings. Which when mixed with the right amount of cash plays can yield huge dividends in tournaments.
Kattar (-250) 9.1k vs Fishgold (+230) 7.1k
Kattar is a good striker (4.96 SS’s) and has solid power. Fishgold is making his UFC debut and is coming in with a professional record of 17-1. He is tough and has ok TD’s. He is a decent grappler and has good submissions.
Vegas is slightly leaning on this going to decision (-140). If, it does end early Vegas thinks it will be by Kattar (+206 win ITD)
Looking at those numbers I want to get some exposure to Kattar in tournaments. I just hate his salary on draftkings. I have already mentioned several of them already. On the opposite side of this matchup I want some small exposure to Fishgold as well. You can’t ignore that record. More than likely I will have some small exposure to both fighters.
Moras (-155) 8.7k vs Bernardo (+145) 7.5k
Moras is a very low output striker (1.65 SS’s) but, she does have ok power. She can be TD fairly easily and has a horrible TD defense of 17%. Bernardo while she is very hittable has solid TD’s (2.01 per fight). At her 8.7k draftkings salary Moras is close to a fade for me. I do have some interest in Bernardo though. She has decent upside with her TD’s and is priced at only 7.5k. Overall not a fight I will have huge exposure to but, I do want some shares of Bernardo.
Ray (-155) 8.3k vs Ayari (+135) 7.9k
Ray is a solid all-around fighter and is a decent striker (3.26 SS’s). Ayari is moving down a weightclass for this fight. He is a tough fighter and is a decent striker (3.27 SS’s).
Vegas thinks this fight likely goes to the judges (-300 fight goes to decision). With both fighters right in that midrange salary lets take 1 final look at our Research Station.
Its leaning towards the favorite here in Ray. Do take note of the projection score. Obviously that wouldn’t reach value in tournaments. I do think Ray has more upside than that and needs a win to stay employed in the UFC. I think have some small exposure to both is viable. My preferred play is Ray.
Garcia (-200) 8.5k vs McGee (+185) 7.7k
Garcia is a decent striker and has good power. He is a solid grappler (4.12 TD’s per fight) and has decent submissions. McGee is an aggressive fighter and an ok striker (4.83 SS’s).
Vegas is assuming this fight goes to decision (-240). Garcia will be all about going for the TD’s and wrestling until he either wins or gasses himself out. McGee hasn’t won a fight since 2016. So, in tournaments my preferred play is Garcia.
Most Fade Worthy Fights on Card
Soukhamthath (-150) 8.6k vs Martinez (+140) 7.6k
Soukhamthath has shown horrible Fight IQ. Not a fighter I am going out of my way to get exposure to. Martinez is taking this fight on short notice and moving up a weightclass. If I have any exposure it will be Soukhamthath.
Villante (-230) 9k vs Herman (+210) 7.3k
While Villante is a ok striker and has big power. He hasn’t had a fight in over 1 year. Herman on the otherhand is a UFC veteran with a deterating chin. Vegas does like this to end ITD (-240). So going by that I guess warrants some exposure. I just don’t like the salary on Villante and like more fighters around him more.
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