The DFS n’ Donuts Shop

The modus operandi of the majority of my articles and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. This article is slightly different than what you’ll see in most of my articles. In this weekly column, I will provide a light breakdown of the slate, give a brief overview of what Vegas has to say about the current week of games and highlight a few significant values on FanDuel and DraftKings based on some analytical data. This article is an early overview of the main slate and should be used as a building block and guideline to develop your strategies and start to envision possible paths to victory.

NFL DFS Podcast Main Slate Preview for Week 6

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iTunes – Week 6 

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Salute to the Member Success

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Congratulations to a couple of very happy members who experienced some superb winnings! This photo is a quick snapshot at our members success during the Prime Time Slate and the Showdown Slate. We release an article for both and a podcast for each and every showdown. So.Much.Info…

 

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Main Slate Game by Game Early Targets and Values on FanDuel and DraftKings

While using the NFL Research Station (one of our VIP tools), I compared each position and believe the following players have significant value on either FanDuel or DraftKings based on their price point on that site, recent trends, and or matchup for the current week.

SEA@OAK

The Seahawks are 3 point favorites and the game has a total of 47.5 points with 55% of the public money coming in on the Seahawks and 70% of the money coming in on the over.

The Seahawks have a renewed rushing attack which makes the Russell Wilson passing attack a bit scary in Week 6. However, Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett both played over 86% of the snaps in Week 5 and the Raiders are struggling to get a pass rush going. I think this is a nice buy-low opportunity and DFS is often more so about leveraging the field and ownership exposure mixed with game theory in tournaments.

I will break this down in depth in my MME/GPP Playbook on Friday. Last week that beast was 7,200 words which ended up being the equivalent of a 30-page paper if it were double-spaced (for you college students). So.Much.Info…and a massive edge over the competition if your privy to what’s inside the article.

CHI@MIA 

The Bears have 75% of the public money coming in on their 3.0 spread while over 65% of the money is coming in on the under. This game screams stay away for me. Outside of Mitchell Trubisky to Allen Robinson in large field GPPs, I just don’t see an optimal approach to targeting this game.

IND@NYJ

The New York Jets find themselves as 2.5 point favorites but the public is pushing that line towards the Colts favor as about 64% of the public bets are on the Colts and already moved the line from 3.0 to 2.5 points. After the explosive running attack from the Jets in Week 5, I find it hard to believe the Colts will be the favorites or close the gap in the spread. I think this will swing back in the Jets favor, especially considering we don’t know if T.Y. Hilton will be active or not.

The Jets running game and defense could be a nice stack but the issue is Crowell did all that damage on less than 30 snaps. If he doesn’t accrue a few red zone carries or a long run then he’s in trouble.

BUF@HOU

I really love the spot for Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. Watson is way underpriced across the industry and continues to pour on 20+ point fantasy points game in and game out throughout his bright and early career. Hopkins has just 1 game under 10 fantasy points on both FanDuel and DraftKings since 2016. He’s an elite cash game option and always is in play for tournaments if stacked with Watson. He’s the ideal small field GPP wide receiver in my opinion and has double-digit targets in every game this season. He’s safe and has a high scoring ceiling.

Alfred Blue and the Texans stack will be in play if Lamar Miller is inactive. I also like the idea of going back to the well with Will Fuller who looked slowed by his hamstring injury. He’s due for a nice bounce-back performance.

CAR@WSH

Cam Newton, Panthers defense, welcome to my lineups. I think this is a very unique stack where people normally stack the defense with the running back hoping for short field opportunities after turnovers and hope for rushing touchdowns from the running back. Well, with the Panthers, Newton gets so much red zone work that the short field opportunities can provide Newton with more red zone work. Newton and the Panthers defense would be an extremely unique stack that could separate you from the field.

TAM@ATL

This is a game that could be absolute fireworks, which is seemingly every game this season that the Falcons have been a part of thus far. The Falcons opened as 3.5 point favorites and have received 79% of the public money and the line hasn’t budged. That means the sharp bettors are coming in on the Buccs. The total has moved from 57 to 57.5 points though and is still receiving over 60% of the public bets so that could go up even more.

An interesting development that could happen in Week 6 is the handing over of the reigns to Ronald Jones Jr. at running back. Peyton Barber has been ineffective and the coaching staff said they want to get this kid the ball coming out of the bye week. Barber has been averaging 14 touches per game and if even half of those go to Jones Jr. then he could be in a superb spot against a team that is ranked the worst in the NFL against the running back position (in fantasy terms). Just to reiterate the fact that the coaching staff is trying to get RJJ going, in Week 5, he was given 2 touches (1 carry and 1 pass target) in the red zone. They want this kid to splash onto the scene and this is the spot, if any, where he can pop.

Julio Jones was shadow covered by Joe Haden who looked reborn and rejuvenated in Week 5. This is the week he explodes at home in front of his friends and family. I smell a massive 3 TD 150 yard and 10 catch performance at mid-teen ownership rates. If it doesn’t happen here it might not happen at all this season. The Bucs can’t cover a mattress.

Calvin Ridley and Austin Hooper are clearly in play as are players like Desean Jackson and a deep GPP target like Adam Humphries (on DraftKings) who have tremendous upside due to their athleticism and price tag. Jameis Winston and Matt Ryan are both clearly in play in tournaments. Neither will make their way into my cash game lineups though as I prefer a couple of other quarterbacks on both FanDuel and DraftKings as well as FantasyDraft and Yahoo!

PIT@CIN

Over 60% of the public bets are coming in on the under in this game and at first glance, I was screaming under as well on the 54 point total at the open. I think the 2.5 point Bengals favorite spread is solid, too.

While both sides of the ball have elite passing game and pass catching targets, I think playing James Conner and Joe Mixon in a game theory that this game drastically hits the under in a tough divisional game could be a nice way to leverage some of the passing game ownership while reaping the benefits of two running backs that could both go for 25+ FanDuel and DraftKings points.

I think the Bengals defense is also in play as they just look like a different unit whenever Vontaze Burfict is on the field. Vance McDonald is still cheap and actually played nearly 60% of the snaps and could be a nice leverage off the JuJu Smith-Schuster and Antonio Brown ownership if we think they become chalk by the end of the week. I like going back to the well on guys that were highly owned and laid an egg the week prior.

ARI@MIN

I think this game gets out of hand quite early and I think it might be the week we can finally target Latavious Murray in a starters roll (if Dalvin Cook sits) and stack him with the Vikings defense and finally reap some benefits. The Vikings are massive 10.5 point favorites with a 26.75 implied total.

Kirk Cousins and Adam Thielen and/or Kyle Rudolph are also nice targets. I like Thielen way more than Stefon Diggs in Week 6 due to his propensity to run routes out of the slot, while Diggs will have to contend with Patrick Peterson on the outside more often than not.

SD@CLE

This is another game that as of right now I see no edge to be had. I might just stay away from this game completely. I would have more interest if it were in San Diego but I am not a big fan of Rivers going across the country to face a tough defense and a team that tries to pound the ball with Carlos Hyde and slows down the game.

LAR@DEN

Todd Gurley is going to be the chalk of the week in cash games and tournaments alike. The Rams have a 29.75 implied total and are 7 point road favorites with money coming in on the over and in the Rams spread. We just saw the Broncos give up a billion rushing yards to the Jets, yes, the Jets. Todd Gurley is going to balloon up his stats in this matchup and even if he has a rough game on the ground he will contribute in the air.

Jared Goff is still underpriced across the industry and all of his wide receivers are in play. Cooper Kupp is still underpriced and Robert Woods is at value. Unfortunately, Brandin Cooks is slightly overpriced but coming off a week where he laid an egg he’s in an elite spot to bounce back. Regression to the mean is a great thing to track and his ownership will be lower than both Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp.

The Rams defense is certainly in play if you want to pay up for them. That goes without saying and you already knew that.

JAX@DAL

Over 80% of the public bets are coming in on the UNDER and the total sits at just 42 points. Sorry, this game is just a complete fade for me with two slow-paced games and solid defensive units. Pass, pass, pass!

BAL@TEN

The Titans are underdogs at home in a game that I likely won’t be touching due to solid defensive units with both teams being top-10 in the league in QB hits and pressures. They don’t make life easy on opposing quarterbacks and offensive coordinators. Neither team runs the ball well and there are messy backfield situations to boot. Fading with ease.

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Fortune favors the bold, go make your own luck!
-Donuts