BigMarley3’s DraftKings UFC Breakdown
Event – UFC Fight Night 138 Location – Moncton, New Brunswick
Thanks for purchasing my UFC FN 138 full DraftKings breakdown. As always, my goal here is not to give you my personal lineups, but help you learn to build better lineups yourself, as well as give you my personal picks and strategies for each fight card. Every week I will do my best to break down every fight on the card from a fight standpoint, as well as a DraftKings standpoint. I will also give my pick prediction for each fight along with the method of victory. However, just because I am picking a fighter to win may not mean they are the fighter I would prefer to roster on DraftKings, so be sure to read through my analysis to see where my head is at in my own lineup constructions. Secondly, if there is anything you think I can add to these be sure to message me on twitter at @BigMarley3 and I will take it into consideration.
This weekend, we have a 13-fight card in Canada. DraftKings has lowered their contest sizes a lot for this card, so I won’t be playing a ton of GPPs this week. I am going to look to build the bankroll with cash games, then I will make my usual ~20 lineups and to chase the big prize of the week. The main tourney is a $10 entry and pays $15k to 1st. That is the main GPP I will be chasing this week. As always, I will be in the 3-entry max and single entry GPPs as well. However, most of my play this week will be in the cash games. Mostly H2Hs.
A tip I will give for cash games is to frequently check through the H2H games and look for players with no badges posting games. It doesn’t mean they are a bad player, but it does mean they don’t have much experience and you should have an edge there. Also, if you are a player with no badge yourself, don’t post H2Hs because it will get picked up by a sharper player and it could even be me since I do hunt for those games. The best cash games to join for beginners would be the $1-$3 double ups and 50/50’s because the DraftKings pros who have invested more than $1M into games are not allowed to play those games under $5, so the competition is a bit easier in general.
With that said, lets break down these UFC Moncton fights and hopefully I can help you build some winning lineups:
Stevie Ray $8,300 vs Jessin Ayari $7,900
Stevie Ray (-165) has a 21-8 record and he is 5-3 in the UFC. Stevie Ray is a popular fighter who has had mixed success in the UFC. He began his UFC career 5-1, but has lost two in a row and a loss here could spell the end of his UFC tenure. He is a well-rounded fighter. He is a pretty low output striker and doesn’t use a lot of movement. He stands very flat footed, but he does come forward and try to control the center of the cage. He has pretty decent lateral movement and does a good job of cutting fighters off and keeping them near or against the cage. He will close the distance with hard left and right overhands, and really will swing for the fences, but is a bit slow. He has a decent straight left hand. He has a nice low leg kick as well, but he doesn’t throw it as often as I’d like to see. He will try to land spinning kicks to the head and the body when his opponents backs are against the cage. He has some good pop in his punches having 6 KO/TKOs in 21 wins. He has shown a good chin over his career having only been finished 1 time in his career with strikes. He did get KO’d badly by Paul Felder, and then rocked against Kajan Johnson, so his chin could be going a bit. He is a tough dude and will continue to push forward unless you put him out.
He is strong for the division, and a solid wrestler. He likes to get double leg takedowns when fighters are against the cage and decent body locks. He is strong in the clinch and can control fighters against the cage. He will land some decent knees and elbows there, but it’s also where Paul Felder caught him. On top he has decent ground and pound and does a good job of controlling positions and being able to win scrambles. He has good rear naked chokes, having 8 submissions in his career. He has also been submitted 4 times in his career. He has been in very close fights over his career with a lot of split decisions, and I’m sure he wants to get a finish or at least win clearly. I see him trying to close the distance and land his overhands and kicks. I think he should try to throw more leg kicks in this matchup and slow the movement of Ayari. Ayari seems a bit chinny as well, so if Ray could land clean he could possibly finish. I also think Ray will try to grind against the cage and get take downs if he struggles with the striking range.
Jessin Ayari (+145) has a 16-4 record and he is 1-1 in the UFC. Ayari is primarily a striker. He is returning from a lay-off of over a year, and this will be his first fight since fighting Darren Till in May of 2017. Ayari has a hands down style with a ton of lateral movement. He reads his opponents closing the distance and will attack with a plethora of attacks. He has nice inside and outside leg kicks, he also uses a lot of front kicks to the body. He has good hands and a nice 1-2 down the pipe. He has good power on his straight right hand and it’s probably his best strike. He has a nice check left hook, and he will usually land it and circle back to the center of the cage when you are trying to cut him off. He has decent uppercuts and good overhand rights. He tends to use only 1 and done attacks and doesn’t throw a lot in combination. He can get clipped and has been dropped a few times in the octagon due to having his hands down all the time when striking. He has solid cardio and will push hard for the finish late if he believes he needs it. He is a tough dude, but he has been finished two times via strikes.
Ayari isn’t an offensive wrestler, and he is much more of a range striker than grappler. He does look to close the distance with an overhand right and grab a single collar clinch position, he likes to throw knees to the body and head from that position. Ayari has a decent double leg take down, and if he can’t get it he will transition to a body lock and does a good job of working to the back and dragging his opponents down. I have seen him get taken down a couple times by Darren Till. He looks to be pretty slick off his back. He has fast hips and a good guard. He has nice arm bars and nice triangle chokes. He will attack with leg locks as well. He does a good job of getting his feet on the hips and landing short elbows and punches. He gave Darren Till a good match and is a solid well rounded fighter. He is going to be the quicker and lighter fighter on the feet. He needs to use his usual lateral movement and walk Ray into shots while not getting hit himself. I doubt Ayari will not have wrestling in his game plan unless he is getting pieced up on the feet.
I think Ray should be the better fighter here and I think he gets the win. I did not like how he performed in his last fight, and I am not sure what to expect with Ayari at this weight class, but I think Ray is the better fighter overall. I think if there are takedowns in this fight, it will be Ray that is the one getting them. I have also been more impressed with his standup. I don’t think he has crazy upside here though, so this is not one of my favorite fights on the card to target. However, Ray is the only one that interests me personally and I will have a full fade on Ayari.
On DraftKings, I think if you are making 1-3 LUs, I would just fade this fight. If you are making 5 or more then Ray would be the side I want, but you can still fade him. He doesn’t need 100+ points at his $8.3k price tag, but I could see him getting a 65-point win and that won’t help much. I do think this fight takes place on the feet and I don’t think he gets a finish. So, I will be underweight to Ray, but as I mentioned I won’t have any Ayari at all. This is a fight to avoid in my opinion, and I usually like targeting the first fight of the night. I think Ray is a good pick if you have 5 fighters in your LU and you have $8.3k left. Then I would use Ray. But I wouldn’t start any LUs with him.
Winner- Stevia Ray via Unanimous Decision
Arjan Bhullar $8,800 vs Marcelo Golm $7,400
Arjan Bhullar (-200) has a record of 7-1 with a 1-1 UFC record. Bhullar came into the UFC with a lot of hype. A decorated wrestler and main training partner of “Champ Champ” Daniel Cormier but has looked underwhelming in the UFC so far. He lost his last fight in embarrassing fashion via Omaplata in a big upset. He is not the greatest athlete and is plodding with his movement. He likes to slowly close the distance and walk you down, looking for the clinch or an overhand right. He has an ok jab and likes to throw the jab and then come over the top with an overhand right. He has decent power, dropping Luis Henrique in their fight, and he does a good job of disguising his overhand by faking level changes, and single collar clinch entries similar to how DC caught Stipe. He tends to get tired as the fight goes on, and he will use a lot of lateral movement and exclusively just look to counter punch. He has decent hand speed, and in the pocket, he can be dangerous. He struggles to close the distance at times and can be hit with shots coming in. I actually thought he was looking much better with his striking vs Adam. He was doing a better job of closing the distance with longer punching combinations, and was landing nice uppercuts, and rocked his opponent with an overhand left.
He is a very strong wrestler and is always looking to close the distance and get in the clinch. He will throw short uppercuts, and hooks in the clinch and then level change for a double leg. When he can get his hands locked he is extremely strong and can hoist guys over his shoulder, walk them to the center of the cage and dump them on their back. He does a good job of getting an over under on the clinch and landing short knees and slowing the fight down. He has a good single leg as well. On top he doesn’t do much, he will land short shots in the clinch, and when he gets to half guard he will land harder shots. He has good control, and is heavy on top, but he seems to lack Jiu-Jitsu knowledge. He could have easily hopped over or ripped his arm out to defend the omaplata, and he looked too complacent in there. He needs to sure up his submission defense to be successful in the UFC. Bhullar needs to look to use his punches to close the distance and grind out Golm. Golm lost to a very similar fighter in his last match against Timothy Johnson, and Bhullar has the capability to do the same thing.
Marcelo Golm (+170) is 6-1 and he has a 1-1 UFC record as well. Golm is a young athletic striker, who is looking to bounce back from the first loss of his career in his last fight. Golm has started training at ATT for this camp, so he should look improved. This is going to be his first fight not in Brazil, and this is his best opponent to date on paper. He is a solid striker, and has good straight punches, and hooks. He is at his best when he is moving forward, and he also has nice leg kicks, and front kicks to the body. He was very hesitant in his last fight to come forward because he didn’t want to get clinched up and taken down. He was trying to one shot his opponent coming in, but he lacks huge power in that way and is more of an accumulation striker. When he has you hurt, he will swarm with very fast hooks and throw long combinations. He has finished all his wins in round one, and he slowed down against Johnson in a wrestling heavy match. Golm needs to come forward in this fight and throw first. He cannot be hesitant and wait for Bhullar to close the distance because he is not the wrestler that Bhullar is.
Golm has great double legs and good body locks, and on top he has very good ground & pound. He works very quickly on top and likes to get to the back and get the rear naked choke. He isn’t great in the clinch and seems to lack physical strength and great technique. He doesn’t dig for under hooks much and when he changes position it’s usually with explosion. I haven’t seen him on his back, but I imagine it is a place he hasn’t been much, and I don’t see him having the same type of guard of a long Wiezorek. Golm should try to avoid clinch and wrestling situations and keep this fight striking in the center of the cage.
This is a fight I like to target in DraftKings. It also seems fairly easy to read. We have a wrestler vs a striker and whoever can keep this fight in their area of expertise will likely win. I think you have to favor Bhullar and his wrestling in this matchup. I don’t see him wanting to stand long, so I think he goes for takedowns early and often. However, if he can’t get them, then he probably is going to lose and might get KO’d. Golm will be the better striker and he will be more dangerous as well. So, Bhullar will need to get takedowns every round to win this fight. If he can do that, this fight will be all his and he could score highly on DK. I am worried about him just controlling this fight against the cage for too long and that is the worst. When they are against the cage, they are failing at takedown attempts which is 0 points, and the strikes are not at range, so they usually don’t count as significant. For that reason, this is not an all-in type fight, but it is one I want exposure to both sides.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Bhullar. However, I would like to be overweight on both fighters here. Both guys have clear paths to victory and both of those paths have high ceilings. If Bhullar can land 10 takedowns in this fight, then he could possibly be the highest scorer on the card at $8.8k. I don’t see that happening, but it is possible. And we do like wrestlers on DK. With Golm at $7.4k, if he gets an early KO then he will surely be on the winning LU. That makes this a great GPP fight to target. I will have over 25% of both guys here, but I do favor Bhullar to get the win and if I was making 1 LU he would probably be on it. I don’t love this fight for cash games though. I think Bhullar is in play in cash, but I would avoid Golm in those formats because he could spend the whole fight on his back, so there are better guys to target for cheaper IMO. However, Golm is one of the better underdog GPP plays because of his high upside so I do think you should have exposure to him if you are multi-entering.
Winner- Arjan Bhullar via Unanimous Decision
Te Edwards $9,400 vs Don Madge $6,800
Te Edwards (-500) has a 6-1 record and is coming off a win on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. Edwards is a former All-American college wrestler who is training out of the MMA Lab. He is a great athlete, and a powerful fighter overall. He is coming off a vicious KO win on DWTNCS and is riding a 5-fight winning streak. Edwards striking is still raw, but he is explosive and dangerous. He has a nasty overhand right, it is very fast and powerful, and if lands clean can put opponents out. He likes to close the distance with one punch blitz attacks and does a good job of staying light on his feet and in and out of range. He has a nice straight left hand, and a decent check left hook. When he gets in close he has no problem letting his hands go and will throw hard hooks and uppercuts. He doesn’t set his attacks up much with a jab or feints and due to that fighters can start to read when he’s going to attack. He also keeps his hands very low, and he gets away with it due to his athleticism, but he will eventually get cracked for that. He has a decent high kick, and when he has guys hurt he will go for the kill. He has finished all his wins by KO/TKO. He has finished all his wins in round 1, and the only fight he did not finish in round 1 he lost by decision. He is a brash guy and will come in with a lot of confidence.
He is a great wrestler, obviously, being an All American at Old Dominion University. He has good double legs and is explosive with his entries usually being able to finish pretty easily. He also has a decent single leg, but he doesn’t shoot much in MMA and likes to strike instead. He seems to be learning the clinch game still. He allows fighters to control him in the clinch against the cage, and he doesn’t do a good job of pummeling or improving position. He does have good trip take downs from that position, but he needs to improve that facet of his game. His one decision loss he was unable to get his back off the cage or get up when taken down. I see this as being a more stand up fight and don’t see Edwards really using his wrestling unless the striking is very one sided. Edwards is going to look to land his overhand right or explode in with a big shot swarm and finish the fight. You have to wonder how his cardio will look if Madge can survive round 1 due to having all his wins via first round finish.
Don Madge (+400) has a 7-3-1 record and will be making his UFC debut in this fight. Madge is an interesting guy, I have found it hard to find recent footage, but he is a veteran of over 100 Muay Thai fights and looks to be decent on the ground too. He is a brown belt in BJJ and looks athletic. He looks to have some decent punches. He throws straight and sharp and has a nice uppercut, and good 1-2. He throws nice leg kicks and looks to have good kicking technique. I haven’t seen him throw much to the body or the head, but he has a finish vía body kick on his record. He does a good job of rolling with shots and having good defense in the pocket to come back with his own shots. He has experience fighting 5-round fights and has good overall cardio. He also had nice knees and had a finish vía knees in his career. He has fought some big names in Muay Thai and is actually a pretty big star in Thailand and South Africa. He looks to have a good chin and is very calm in a war. He seems like he starts slow and let’s fighters get inside on him and that could cause him trouble in his UFC career.
Due to Madge’s extensive Muay Thai experience, he is solid in the clinch. He has good knees and elbows, and nice body lock take downs. When he gets you down he does a good job of getting to the back and getting a rear naked choke. He doesn’t seem to be a great wrestler, offensively or defensively, but he is good in scrambles and when he ends up on top he does a good job of getting to the back and finishing. He has finished all his wins and is 0-1-1 in decisions. His 3 losses in MMA have all been to the same person one vía TKO one vía submission and one vía split decision. He has won 4 consecutive fights, and he seems like a guy with a lot of confidence. Madge is really a bit of an unknown and it’s hard for me to tell you a game plan he should use, but I am intrigued to see how he performs. I do think Madge being a Muay Thai specialist should be good in the clinch, and that could be a place to potentially exploit Edwards.
This is an interesting fight and one I think I will be targeting. I think Te Edwards is a solid talent and has big upside in this fight. However, we haven’t seen a ton of him and Madge is a decent stand-up fighter. Edwards is a wrestler that looks like he has fallen in love with his striking, so maybe he will give Madge the striking fight he wants. I do like that Edwards has the takedowns in his back pocket if he needs them though, but he can finish this fight with striking as well. He does have heavy power and his ITD line is -240. I am going to pick him to win, and he is one of my favorite plays on the board. I do like Madge a bit as well though, because if this fight goes out of the first round, I think Madge has a better shot and he could also finish early with striking. I like to target both sides of this fight, but if I was making just 1 LU then Edwards would be the guy I’d rather have. It is just going to be tough to pick between the top guys this week, but Edwards has decent shot to outscore everyone on the slate.
On DraftKings, Edwards is my preferred play. I want this fight to be in more than half of my LUs, and I favor Edwards, but Madge will be in some of my LUs as well. At $6.8k, any win from Madge will do and if he can win then I think he will 10x that price tag. I also think he will be very low owned so it’s a sneaky GPP punt. I am not sure how the ownership will go with the top 4 priced guys, but I think Edwards will be right up there with Nasrat and Cirkunov. I will be mixing Edwards into LUs with those guys to hope I can get the right combo, but I love the upside of all three and I would think that he might be a bit lower owned than those other two because it is his UFC debut. I would like him more if I knew that was the case. I think Edwards is the only one of the two I would feel comfortable with in cash. I don’t like the floor of Madge so I would rather punt elsewhere.
Winner- Te Edwards via 2nd round (T)KO
Sarah Moras $8,700 vs Talita Bernardo $7,500
Sarah Moras (-170) has a 5-3 record and she is 2-2 in the UFC. Moras is mostly a grappler, but I would say her striking is more developed. She is very aggressive on the feet and likes to close the distance with wide hooks, sometimes she will throw a head kick after the hooks at times. She will try to throw a check left hook. She also has decent leg kicks. She has good power and she can rock fighters on the feet. She is very tough and has the ability to walk through shots and give her own. She has never been finished in her career, but she was dropped in her last match with Lucie Pudilova. She has very good cardio and usually has a good round 3.
Moras is a solid grappler as well. She has good double legs, but she lacks the drive on her shots. She will attack with singles as well. When she gets on top she likes to work from guard mainly and just land short G&P and control the round. She can get bulled over and end up on her back off her takedown attempts, but she is comfortable there. She has a nice guard and a very good armbar. She can be controlled on her back and other than the armbar, she isn’t very dangerous. Moras should look to keep it standing and land the harder shots in the standup. She is good on the ground as well, but I see Talita having the advantage there.
Talita Bernardo (+150) has a 5-3 record and she has lost both of her UFC fights. Bernardo’s striking is very raw. She stands very tall, and really telegraphs her punches and kicks. She will throw a jab right hand and the occasional body and head kick. She doesn’t move her head and stands flat footed with poor defensive movement, so she does get tagged quite a bit. She is tough and has a good chin and will stick in there and try to find a way to take it to the ground. If she cannot find her take down and is forced to strike, she gasses badly. She is always looking to get the fight to the mat and is clearly learning and uncomfortable on the feet.
Bernardo is a Jiu-Jitsu Black belt and has a pretty solid top game. She has good timing on her double leg takedowns and can get them at times, but she lacks the explosion to drive through on most takedowns. She does a good job of getting in on a single leg and being relentless trying to finish. If she can’t, she will pull guard and try to use a half guard sweep and end up on top. She does a good job of getting double under hooks in the clinch and looking for trips. She seems strong in the clinch and shows good clinch control against the cage. Once she gets on top she is heavy and likes to use pressure passing to move into side control and ultimately the mount where she will look for arm bars. She does a good job of getting the back and getting rear naked chokes. She has no problem pulling guard, and she is solid off her back. She has good leg locks and uses them to sweep to top position, she also has a decent arm bar from guard. She can get desperate trying to get it to the ground and exhaust herself and then become more susceptible to being finished. She got mounted and finished with strikes late in round 3 against Marion Reneau. Bernardo will look to work her take downs and get dominate position while trying to lock in a submission. This fight could potentially be a good matchup for her, because she won’t have as big a striking disadvantage as she has had in her first two UFC fights.
This is not a fight I am looking forward to watching, I do have some interest in it from a DK perspective. I think Bernardo will be going for takedowns frequently and I like that from her as an underdog. However, Moras could snatch up her armbar at any point and even win with that in round 1. I do favor Moras on the feet as well, but I would not expect her to pay off value with a decision. I think she will need that armbar win for her to end up on the winning LU, but Bernardo will give her lots of opportunities. Bernardo is a BJJ black belt though and if she can get takedowns and avoid the armbar, then I think she wins this fight. If it stays standing, then this is going to be an ugly fight that Moras should win.
On DraftKings, Bernardo is my preferred play. I think both sides are in play for GPP, but I am going to pick Bernardo to pull off the upset and I think she gets a number of takedowns in the process. At $7.5, if she can win a takedown heavy fight, then I think she can end up on the winning LU if the guys around her don’t get early finishes. She is one of my favorite underdogs and I will likely be overweight on her this weekend. However, she is not a good fighter and we should not be going all-in on her. She could get a takedown and then lose to an armbar 20 seconds into the fight. For that reason, I will probably have some Moras hedge LUs. I think Moras will be very low owned, so she could make for a good play if you are chasing the $15k. I expect Bernardo to gain some ownership this weekend, so I will probably have over 25% to gain a bit of leverage there.
Winner- Talita Bernardo via Split Decision
Calvin Kattar $9,100 vs Chris Fishgold $7,100
Calvin Kattar (-280) has an 18-3 record and is 2-1 in the UFC. Kattar has cemented himself as a very good fighter in the FW division. He came in and defeated two fringe top 15 fighters, before losing a close contest to top a top 5 guy in Renato Moicano. Kattar is a fantastic boxer and has one of the best jabs in the UFC. He will double and triple up on it, and it’s stiff and sharp. His punches are extremely clean and sharp with very little wasted movement. He has a nasty 1-2, his straight right hand is a piston and fires right down the pipe. He has a very nice left hook uppercut combo. He will dig to the body with hooks and has very nice lateral movement always circling back to the center of the cage. He has very good head movement as well, and defensive boxing technique. He throws nice leg kicks and front kicks to the body. He will bring that kick up to the head as well. He has a great chin and never been finished via strikes in his career. He keeps a high volume of shots out there and has a great style to win decisions. He has a record of 8-2 in decisions. He is coming off a loss, so he needs to bounce back with a win here to maintain his status as a future contender.
He isn’t much of a grappler, but he has good timing on doubles and singles and likes to get them at the end of rounds to seal them. When he takes fighters down he likes to get to half guard and lands short ground & pound. He seems to have good lateral movement and his jab and straight punches make it hard for fighters to close the distance on him. He has a 100% takedown defense rate in the UFC, but I haven’t seen much grappling in three fights. I have seen a fight in Elite XC where he gets taken down and submitted but it was in 2008 and that’s the only time he’s been submitted in his 21-fight career. Kattar has good cardio and can keep the same output for all three rounds without slowing down. Kattar needs to have his lateral movement on point and keep his jab pumping. He cannot let himself get backed against the cage or let Fishgold get inside on him. Kattar has good distance control and pull counters and needs to use that in this fight as well.
Chris Fishgold (+240) has a 17-1-1 record and is making his UFC debut in this fight. Fishgold is coming over as the current cage warriors 145 lb champion and has an amazing record of 17-1-1. Fishgold has only fought 1 time out of England and it was a loss. He is 17-0-1 in England. He will be fighting in Canada for this fight, so it will be his second matchup outside of his home country. Fishgold is a submission artist, and a solid addition to the FW division. Fishgold is an athletic fighter, and he has a good jab and nice straight right hand. He has a decent left hook as well, and he is very quick when he explodes forward with combinations. He has a good right hook left hook combo and will mix in uppercuts too. He has good lateral movement and good head movement, and when he closes the distance he throws in combination and then will also look to mix it up with the wresting. He doesn’t throw many kicks, but he will throw the occasional leg kick. He has a solid uppercut in the pocket as well. He doesn’t have big power, and only has two TKO’s in his career. He has never been finished, and he has fought in a lot of 5 round fights, so he should be able to push hard in this fight.
Fishgold likes to close the distance with overhands or straight punches and get a single collar tie in the clinch. He is strong there, and bullies’ fighters to the cage or to the ground. He has a good double leg, and a nice single leg, and is a well-rounded wrestler with a lot of variety in his take downs. Fishgold is very dangerous with chokes and can get them even from standing position. He will clamp onto the neck from the clinch and pull guard and go for it or use it to snap his opponent down and work from there. He is very heavy on top, and slowly works into dominant position, until he can get to the back. He has hard ground & pound, and he uses it in opportune times to advance position, he isn’t much of a ground & pound to finish guy. When he takes the back, he has a fantastic rear naked choke, and does a good job of sneaking the arm under the chin. He has won 12 fights via submission in his career. He is only 3-1-1 in decisions, so he is a finisher. Fishgold should look to close the distance and get this fight to the ground. He cannot hang around on the outside with someone with a jab and disciplined boxing game like Kattar. If Fishgold can get the fight to the ground, he probably will win the round if not find a submission. He should try to use leg kicks to slow down Kattar on the feet.
This might be the fight I am looking forward to the most on this card other than the main event. Not so much from a DraftKings perspective, but from a fan perspective. Both of these fighters are very legit, and we have a great striker vs grappler match to see who is better. I think this is a tough first test for Fishgold in his UFC debut, but he is really good from what I have seen and both guys look like they can compete at the top of this weight class. Kattar will want to keep this fight standing, and if he can then he should get the win. He could get a finish if he can keep it standing, but at $9.1k that is probably what we will need. He will not be going for any takedowns, so we can only rely on sig strike points if he doesn’t get a KO. Fishgold on the other hand will be the one who wants to get takedowns. If he can get takedowns, then he could pick up a submission. So, I do like both guys here, but I have to favor Kattar and I don’t think he gets a KO.
On DraftKings, I would say my preferred play is Fishgold. If he can get takedowns and find a submission, then he will be on the winning LU at his $7.1k price tag. He doesn’t even need a finish at that price, any win would be fine really. But with Kattar, I think we are in for a ~80-point win with a decision and at $9.1k that isn’t going to cut it. Both guys are in play, but if I was making 1-5 LUs I wouldn’t want both sides, so I think you should take a stand. If you are making 10 or more LUs I think both sides would be ok to target, but I will be heavier on Fishgold myself. I think Fishgold is a decent cash punt as well. If he doesn’t get knocked out early, then he should rack up some points in a loss and at $7.1k we can handle that in cash games. We just need to find 4 wins elsewhere. I am looking forward to seeing how good Fishgold really is and Kattar is a top guy in the division, so this is the perfect test to find out just that.
Winner – Calvin Kattar via Split Decision
Nasrat Haqparast $9,700 vs Thibault Gouti $6,500
Nasrat Haqparast (-950) has a 9-2 record and is 1-1 in the UFC. Haqparast is a promising prospect who is looking to get on his first UFC winning streak. Haqparast had a brilliant performance dominating the heavy favorite Marc Diakase in a major way. He showed fantastic striking, and truly announced himself as someone to watch moving forward. He is training at TriStar MMA, so he will be coming into this fight with a great game plan. Haqparast is a nasty striker, the southpaw has fantastic movement and footwork. He does an amazing job of cutting off the cage, not chasing and staying right in his opponent’s face. Nasrat has great hands, a very snappy jab, and a nasty left hand. He has a great straight and overhand left, and when he lands he lands heavy. His left hand has big power, and you can see the effect it has on his opponents immediately as they retreat after being hit by it. Nasrat is very good at choosing his shots, he will use elbows and uppercuts in close range and does a great job of finding openings in and around his opponent’s guard and dinging them up. Haqparast does a good job of constantly pushing his opponent back and when he gets fighters against the cage he will unload with multiple punch combinations. He loves to double and triple up on his left hook and then throw a right hook to end the combination. He will use strikes such as Superman punches and spinning techniques to get his opponents moving backwards and him controlling the center. Haqparast has nasty leg kicks, and big power on his kicks. He isn’t a big kicker, but he has power and fluidity with them showing they are a part of his arsenal. He has never been finished with strikes and shown a great chin and the ability to eat shots and keep pressing forward.
Haqparast is a solid grappler as well. Early in his career on the regional scene he won the majority of his fights by taking his opponents down with double legs and finishing with ground & pound. He has good timing on his level changes, and the ability to drive through and finish them very easily. He is strong in the clinch with tosses, and slams and does a great job of using his opponent’s momentum against them to send them flying. He has good take down defense, a nice quick sprawl, and strong with his clinch take down defense. He can be taken down off well-timed shots off his punches. When he does get taken down he has a decent guard and does a good job of getting the feet on the hips and standing back up. He was able to survive and stand up from under a submission specialist in Marcin Held, and has good submission defense. He has only been submitted one time in his career. He is not a submission guy having zero in his career, but he does have a few ground & pound finishes. Haqparast has a calmness about him in the cage, and it allows him to stay in the moment and possess strong cardio. Haqparast should look to pressure Gouti heavy, feint and fake draw the attacks out of Gouti counter and finish.
Thibault Gouti (+625) is 12-4 with a 1-4 UFC record. Gouti is a striker who can grapple a bit. Gouti has solid fundamental striking he has good power in his hooks, but he comes forward with his chin up and way too aggressive. He has bad defense on the feet and has been finished quickly multiple times in his UFC career. He has had a few good showings such as his decision loss to OAM which was competitive, and his fight vs David Teymur. He gets caught and struggles with explosive counters. He has big power early, but he slows down as the fight goes on. His overhand right is nice and accurate, and he has one punch power with it. He doesn’t have great head movement, and he can just backup and cover up instead of using footwork when he gets clipped.
Gouti has never been known as an offensive wrestler but showed some growth in his game landing 4 takedowns against Sage Northcutt. He was doing a good job of getting takedowns against the cage. On top he was doing a great job of moving into the deep half guard and grape vining the legs while looking for ground & pound. He has some decent submissions, and a good guillotine. He has 6 submission wins in his career, but none in the UFC while being submitted twice himself. Gouti is 1-4 in the UFC and honestly, I’m not sure how he still has a job. He needs a win here to keep his spot in the company.
I’m going to keep this one short. This is a perfect matchup for Nastrat, and the odds show it. I think he gets the win here and probably makes it look easy. The only issue is that he is $9.7k, so we need him to score over 100 and likely be the highest scorer on the card. I think he can do that, but I like a lot of these guys at the top. I have no interest in Gouti and he will be a full fade for me.
On DraftKings, Nasrat is the play for cash, and he is a solid GPP play as well. His ITD line is -225 and his line to win in round 1 is +100. So, there is a decent chance he scores over 100, and the later in round 1 he finishes the more points he will rack up. He is one of my favorite plays on the card and if I can afford him, then I want him. I don’t think he is a must at this price though, so if fading him gets you a LU you like with these other top priced guys instead, that is totally fine, and I will have LUs like that as well. However, Nasrat will be one of my highest owned fighters and I think he does get it done early.
Winner – Nasrat Haqparast via 1st round (T)KO
Nordine Taleb $8,200 vs Sean Strickland $8,000
Nordine Taleb (+100) has a 14-5 record and he is 6-3 in the UFC. Taleb is a physical specimen and very athletic fighter. He is a very technical striker, with a nice jab and good leg kicks. He has nice front kicks and round kicks to the body and does a good job of countering while using good lateral movement. He has a nice check hook, and a good straight right hand. Taleb is a bit flat footed, but he is quicker and lighter on his feet in this matchup. He will walk his opponents down at times and likes to keep heavy pressure and high guard popping his jab out there while trying to bait guys into throwing, so he can pull counter with his right hand. He likes to catch kicks and throw a follow with a right hand down the pipe. He has a nasty head kick, and he landed it on Danny Roberts to finish that match. Taleb is similar to Strickland, in terms of he doesn’t throw himself in the fire for finishes and fights very safe. He doesn’t throw many overhands, or head kicks, but I think he should try to throw longer combinations and more straight and overhand shots. Strickland doesn’t move his head, and Taleb needs to try to snipe him with a long-range shot.
Taleb is a strong guy, and it makes him hard to take down. He doesn’t shoot for take downs himself very often, but he will occasionally change it up and shoots a solid double leg. He usually likes to attempt his shots when he has fighters jammed against the cage, and on top he has solid control and ground & pound, but nothing devastating. He likes to get into half guard or side control and land short elbows and punches. He is a brown belt under Firas Zahabi, but he has been threatened with submission attempts off the bottom. He has been put in arm bar and triangle positions, but he is very strong and does a good job of getting out of those positions and landing shots. He will take opponents down off caught kicks as well and is very strong and will slam fighters to the mat. He is strong in the clinch and lands nice knees to the body before disengaging. He does a good job of getting a whizzer and turning his opponents on initial take down attempts, and overall has solid TDD. He was attacking with a leg lock in his last match against Claudia Silva, which put him in an awful position where he got mounted and ultimately finished with a choke. I don’t see Taleb going for take downs against Strickland or him having to worry much about the grappling. This will probably be a striking match.
Sean Strickland (-120) has a record of 19-3 and he is also 6-3 in the UFC. Strickland is returning 5 months after getting knocked out, so you have to wonder how he will react to getting cracked on the chin. Both guys need a win here. Nordine Taleb is 37 years old, and a loss here would put his career in no man’s land. Sean Strickland is a longtime prospect who has yet to reach his potential, and a loss here would almost guarantee he never does. Strickland is tall and long for the division, and really tries to accentuate his reach. He has a nice jab, and good check left hook. He will follow up his jab with a straight right or right hook, and he keeps a high volume of punches out there the entire fight. He has good front kicks to the body, and inside outside leg kicks, and does a good job of using lateral movement and good distance control to keep opponents on the end of his shots. He stands too flat footed, and fighters are able to close the distance with overhands or more aggressive combinations. He doesn’t move his head, and sometimes uses tall man defense by leaning back instead of moving his feet to avoid shots. He has a good chin, and able to eat clean shots and continue to execute his game plan. He is a fighter who never really puts it all out there. He fights safe and is content not finishing and taking a decision victory instead of putting himself in the fire to get a finish. He is coming off a bad KO loss, so we will have to see how that will affect his confidence and chin moving forward.
Sean Strickland is a well-rounded fighter, and a solid grappler. He is strong in the clinch and has very good body lock take downs. He will circle to the back and slams his opponents to the mat. On top he does a good job of posturing landing hard punches and then passing. I wish Strickland would use his offensive wrestling more because he is pretty dangerous on top. He has good top control and is good at floating and staying on top. He is a brown belt in BJJ and has 5 submission victories. He has good hips, and balance when defending take downs, and is very hard to take down. If guys do get him down, he does a great job of getting his back to the cage and getting back up to his feet. He has never been submitted before himself. Strickland has good cardio and can keep the same pace for all three rounds. Strickland should look to use his lateral movement and punching to frustrate Taleb early, and then take him down and work from top position. We saw Taleb get submitted very quickly in his last match and Strickland could finish him on top.
It is hard to trust these old guys, especially after I got burned by an old, terrible looking Gray Maynard last fight card. Maybe that is influencing my decisions a bit for this card, but I am not liking the old guys on this card. Not only do I think Strickland is the better fighter, but he is 27 in his prime and Taleb is 37 coming off an upset loss. I am picking Strickland to get the win here and I think he should be the favorite, so we are getting a $200 discount from Taleb in this spot. I don’t think this will be an easy fight for Strickland, but I do favor him to win. I would like to see him get takedowns in this fight, but if not, I think he can win a decision on the feet or even get a finish there as well. I think Taleb is going to need a KO here to get the W. Strickland is coming off a KO loss, so Taleb has that going for him. But I am going to stick with the young guy and I think Strickland is going to mix in takedown to get a decision or submission win here.
On DraftKings, Sean Strickland is my preferred play. He might even be the only one of these two that will make my personal player pool. I do think we will see this fight go to the judges, and the line on that happening is -290, so I do think there are better plays on the card. However, we do need underdogs and $8k makes Strickland a slight underdog on DK, so I do like him at that price. I think he could 10x that price-tag with a decision win, and I think he could get a finish as well. I will likely fade Taleb unless I have a LU with Strickland that I love, and I have $200 remaining in it. Then maybe I’ll hedge with Taleb in a duplicate LU. Other than that, I like Strickland and I think he is in play in all formats. I do like finding the betting value in cash games, and we do have a bit with Strickland here, so he is a fine cash option IMO.
Winner – Sean Strickland via Unanimous Decision
Alex Garcia $8,500 vs Court McGee $7,700
Alex Garcia (-190) is 15-5 with a 5-4 UFC record. Garcia is a great athlete, and a very explosive fighter. He is a long-time staple of TriStar, but he doesn’t seem to have added much to his game over the years. He is an athletic explosive guy who is looking to land his overhand right. He will throw the occasional straight right, and front kick to the body. He will throw a left overhand and left hook, but overall his striking is not that good. He doesn’t set up his overhands or blitz attacks with a jab or feints and it makes him very obvious to read. He will throw crazy spinning attacks at times such as spinning back fists, but he usually never sets them up and misses wildly. He has big knockout power, and if he lands, especially in round 1, his opponent could be in trouble. He gets tired as the fight goes on, so the first round is his most dangerous.
He is a good grappler and very strong wrestler. He has good chain wrestling and will shoot explosive doubles, come back up with double under hooks, or get body locks or singles against the cage. He has an explosive shot, and it’s hard to deny if he gets in on the legs. On top he has good control and is very heavy. He does a great job of getting to half guard, trapping a wrist and then trying to get to the back. He has a good rear naked choke, but he can get desperate trying to take the back at times and get shucked off or end up on his back. Off his back, he doesn’t offer much and doesn’t have a good get up game. He has never been submitted and has 6 himself. He doesn’t set his take down attempts up well, and fighters are able to stuff them easily and tire him out. He is a finisher having finished 12 of his 15 wins. He is 3-3 in decisions. Garcia needs to try to finish in round one. He is going to be the much quicker more explosive athlete, but McGee will take over as the fight goes on. I think Garcia will try to land his over hand early and take out McGee and if he can’t try to resort to wrestling. If Garcia can win the wrestling against McGee that will be a huge component to him winning the fight.
Court McGee (+165) is a former TUF winner with a record of 18-7. He is 7-6 in the UFC and is coming off two straight losses. He is a tough gritty well-rounded dude with an elite gas tank, and never say die attitude. McGee is a more technical striker, he is light on his feet, and has good lateral movement. He throws a lot of variety in his strikes, he will throw nice leg kicks, and high kicks. He has good hands, a nice jab good straight right hand, and he likes to throw front knees and front kicks to the body. He has strong right and left hooks and closes the distance well with them. He has good head movement and will throw long combinations in the pocket keeping heavy pressure and volume on his opponents. He likes to close the distance and get in the single collar clinch and throw short uppercuts. He isn’t the fastest guy, but his volume and forward pressure wear on fighters as time goes on. McGee has a sick chin and will eat shots and stay right in the pocket and continue to move forward. He has only been finished one time in his entire career. He doesn’t possess enormous power with only 3 TKO’s himself. He has his back against the wall here in this match and I expect him to come out in great shape and going for broke.
McGee is a grinder, and he thrives in a war whether it’s on the feet or in the grappling realm. He doesn’t shoot take downs in the center of the cage, but if he ever gets fighters backs against the cage, he closes the distance. He likes to land short knees to the body and shots to the head in the clinch, and he will change peels and shoot for doubles and singles. He isn’t the most efficient wrestler early on, but he gets a take down in round 3 in a majority of fights, and when he is on top he has nice ground and pound and likes to punch and pass to better positions. He has no problem staying in your guard and beating you up with elbows and punches as well. He has never been submitted in his career, so he has good submission defense. He has earned 9 submissions himself, mostly rear naked chokes. McGee needs to be careful in round 1, but I think his long-range kicking game and ability to land and get out of range will frustrate Garcia. McGee will also wear out Garcia, and I think if McGee can deny takedowns he will win. McGee has cleaner boxing and better long-range attacks, as well as the advantage the longer the fight goes.
The later this fight lasts, the more it will start to favor McGee. I think his game plan is going to be to weather an early storm, and then wear down Garcia late. If he can do that, I think he could pick up a decision here, or maybe even a 3rd round finish. However, I think the first round will dangerous for him and Garcia could get an early finish. If Garcia can’t get a finish in the 1st or 2nd, then he will need to win those rounds to get a decision win. I don’t see him having success in the 3rd against Court McGee. I also don’t see McGee getting an early finish, so he will need to win rounds 2 and 3 to get his hand raised. Those are really the only way I see this fight going down. Court McGee does strike at the higher pace, so if he can avoid takedowns then I would probably favor him to win a judge’s decision. I just don’t see him winning round 1, so I think most of his points would come from the later portion of this fight. Garcia has the much higher ceiling, but he is hard to trust. If he can’t get the finish in the 1st round, then the odds are going to shift away from his favor.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is Alex Garcia. However, I would really only want to use him in GPPs because he is a boom/bust play. I like the 100-point possible upside we can get from him at $8.5k, but Court is tough, and he could weather that storm. If he does, then I’m not sure Garcia will even get a win. I would want to find other plays over Garcia in cash, but he is in play for GPPs for sure. McGee is also in play in GPPs. If you favor him winning this fight, then he is an ok cash play as well. My issue with McGee is that I think most of his points would come from rounds 2 and 3, and that could maybe be a ~70-point decision. I don’t love his ceiling, but we also don’t need 100 points from him at $7.7k. I will have more exposure to Garcia though personally, so I will be rooting for that early finish.
Winner – Alex Garcia via 1st round (T)KO
Gian Villante $9,000 vs Ed Herman $7,200
Gian Villante (-250) has a 16-10 record and he is 6-7 in the UFC. Villante is a perennial underachiever. He’s a long-time training partner and friend of Chris Weidman has been given the opportunity to move into contender-ship time and time again and dropping the ball. He is a good athlete and packs a lot of power. He is a fast starter and comes out strong in almost all his fights. He has a nice jab, and strong leg kicks. He has good forward pressure, and does a good job controlling the center of the cage. He has a nice straight right hand and right hook. He has good accuracy on it when he is fresh with some solid power. He likes to throw a jab rear uppercut combo. He will throw the occasional front kick to the body, and high kick. He has good speed for the division, and usually has a dominant round 1. He has major gas tank issues and slows significantly after round one. His punches come much slower and more labored in rounds 2 and 3 and he also slows down the forward pressure and volume getting hit clean himself. He doesn’t have good head movement, and as the fight goes on lowers his hands. He has shown a solid chin over his career, but I would say he’s looked a bit chinny recently. Villante is going to the significantly better striker in this matchup with much cleaner technique. He should try to finish the fight in round 1, because Herman’s grinding style may start to wear on him as the fight goes on.
Gian Villante isn’t much of a grappler, and very rarely if ever initiates the clinch or look for take downs. His coach Matt Serra says he has good takedowns BJJ and top control, but never shows it. He has very good take down defense, and I would be surprised to see Herman get him to the ground. Patrick Cummings was not able to get him to the mat and he is a much bigger more accomplished wrestler. He has defended 83% of take down attempts in the UFC. He hasn’t earned a takedown himself in the octagon since 2015. He has never been submitted and only has one submission himself. His last 3 fights have been split decisions, so I’m sure he is wanting to finish this one or not make it close. Villante should try to start fast and take Herman out early. Herman is older and weathered and Villante has a good chance for a first round finish.
Ed Herman (+210) has a record of 23-13-1 and a UFC record of 10-10-1. Herman is a long time UFC veteran. He is fighting at 205 again, after fighting most of his career at 185. I feel he looked a bit sloppy at 205 in his last match against CB Dolloway, so I am interested to see how he looks for this fight. Ed Herman is a grinder. He isn’t very technical with his striking, but he likes to throw a one two and long looping hooks. He throws mostly long Russian casting type hooks. He will go body head, and he keeps a decent amount of volume out there. He doesn’t have big power, and overall range striking is the least dangerous part of his game. He is susceptible to getting caught with shorter more technical shots because he loads up and is obvious with his shots. He has a solid chin, but he has been finished with strikes 3 times.
Ed Herman is strong in the clinch and has some nice short uppercuts and knees to the head. He has good power in short range, showing that with his knee KO of Tim Boetsch in his last victory. He is a good wrestler and has solid take down defense. He has 32 takedowns in his UFC career. On top he has big elbows and cuts his opponents up. He likes to get to the back and he has a nice rear naked choke. Off his back, he doesn’t have a great get up or sweep game, but he is active off his back. He has good arm bars and will attack with leg locks as well. He was controlled and out wrestled in his last fight against CB Dolloway. Herman isn’t going to come in with anything we haven’t seen. For him to win this fight he needs to make Villante work and really stay in his face and close the distance. He is much older, smaller and the less technical striker, and will be at a big disadvantage at range.
This is my least favorite fight on the card. Villante just isn’t very good, and Herman is over the hill. Even though Villante isn’t great, and still under performs, I think this is the perfect matchup for him. You can’t trust either of these guys, but I am going to pick Villante to get the win. I think he could even win by 1st round KO, and he will be low owned, so he is maybe worth a shot in GPPs. However, if he wins a decision then that isn’t going to cut it at $9k. I just don’t see Herman getting a win at all, so I really have no interest in him personally. I think he is probably in it for the paycheck at this point and retirement is right around the corner.
On DraftKings, Villante is my preferred play, and the only one of the two that has a chance of making my personal player pool. We absolutely need the KO from Villante for him to pay off his $9k price tag and there are way better plays in this $9k range. I just think he could be ~10% owned, and if he can get the 1st round KO then he might be on that $15k LU. He also has a decent +111 ITD line. So, for that big tourney, I think he is in play at low ownership. Other than that, I would rather just try to pay up for the safer $9k plays. Herman is going to be a full fade for me and I think this will be his final UFC fight.
Winner – Gian Villante via 3rd round (T)KO
Andre Soukhamthath $8,600 vs Jonathan Martinez $7,600
Andre Soukhamthath (-220) is 12-6 with a 1-3 UFC record. Soukhamthath is coming off a brutal loss. He had his fight all but won, but instead of staying on the feet he took down a fighter who couldn’t walk. He took a ton of grief for that decision, and I am curious how he will bounce back from all that adversity. Soukhamthath has actually fought some pretty high-level fighters in his UFC tenure. He has dropped two decisions to Alejandro Perez and Sean O’Malley, but he has been competitive in those fights. Soukhamthath is a pretty slick striker. He has a very nice jab, he throws it hard and stiff. He dropped Alejandro Perez with his jab three times in their fight. He has a nice check left hook, and left hook to the body. He likes to try to get fighters to close the distance and pull counter with his straight right hand. He has good power in his shots and can finish a fight with one shot. He has a very nice step in uppercut, and when he walks forward and let’s his shots go he is dangerous. He has a nasty flying knee which he has knocked fighters out with previously in his career. He can get too involved in just trying to counter punch, and coast in fights he thinks he’s winning making them much closer than they should be. He has a great chin, showing that against O’Malley in which he took some massive shots. He has never been finished in his career. He has 8 KO/TKO’s in his career and he will be looking for another one Oct 27th.
Soukhamthath isn’t much of a grappler, but he has solid take down defense. He does a good job of limp legging out of single attempts and denying double leg entries. He can be controlled against the fence for portions of the fight, but I would imagine Andre is the better offensive wrestler/grappler in this matchup. Soukhamthath will close the distance and look for body locks. He drives his opponents against the cage and will look for trips. He will drop levels and try to get single legs. He likes to move into side control and lands short ground & pound, but he isn’t devastating on top. He will look for guillotines, and chokes. He has 3 career submissions. His record in decisions over his career has been terrible. He is 1-6 in decisions. Soukhamthath should be extra motivated to shut people up and put on a performance here. Soukhamthath should walk down Martinez get him uncomfortable, and catch him coming in. Martinez doesn’t have huge power, so I think that Andre should be able to eat any shots Martinez lands.
Jonathan Martinez (+180) has a 9-1 record and will be making his UFC debut in this fight. Martinez will be making his UFC debut, and coming off over a year lay-off. He is 32 years old already so not a spring chicken especially for the bantamweight division. He is replacing Gavin Tucker on short notice and has had a short training camp for this one. Martinez looks to be fairly quick and athletic with some nice striking technique. He has a quick snappy jab, and nice kicks. He likes to throw a jab right hook or jab head kick combination. He likes to lunge in with single punch combinations, and then get out. He throws nice hard leg kicks, and oblique kicks to the knee. He throws a nice front kick to the body, and round kicks to the body. He likes to throw step in knees to the body too, and he does a good job of mixing it up body head. He has a good straight right hand, and a good uppercut right hand combination when fighters close the distance on him. He has a good high kick, and his kicks come quick with little telegraph, but they don’t pack huge power. He has solid defense keeping a high guard and using decent head movement. Martinez’s only loss is via DQ so he has technically never been defeated by something his opponent has done. He is a Mexican fighter and has a good chin and will get hit and continue to come forward and push the pace.
He doesn’t seem like much of an offensive grappler. He doesn’t shoot for take downs or get in the clinch much, but he will dig a double undertook, and control opponents against the cage, but he doesn’t have much offense from there. He doesn’t have good take down defense, but he likes to fight off his back. He has a nice guard, he likes to trap a wrist and go for a triangle choke. He has a good arm bar as well. If he does end up on top, he moves to the back quickly and get the body triangle. He doesn’t have the best control on the back and he can be put on his back. He seems like he isn’t the most physically gifted fighter and I see Soukhamthath as the stronger more athletic fighter. Martinez should just try to stick and move, and out volume Soukhamthath to a decision.
Even with Soukhamthath’s poor UFC record, and fight IQ, I think you still have to favor him here. Martinez is taking this fight on short notice up a weight class, so I don’t love that and it’s hard to know what we are going to get here. I don’t think this fight will be a barn burner, so we can fade it here, but I think both sides are in play. Soukhamthath has finished 92% of his wins, so if he gets another finish here at $8.6k, he could end up on the winning LU. Martinez should be low owned, and he is only $7.6k, so any win from him could put him on the winning LU as well. I just have a hard time reading how this fight will go, so if I was making 1-5 LUs, I would just fade it. However, I am going to side with the odds and pick Soukhamthath to get the win. I will just hope it’s by a decision if I am underweight on him.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is probably Soukhamthath, but I would rather just be close to even on my exposure to these guys. I might take one or two shots on both guys here, but this is not a fight I want to be heavily invested in. I do think Martinez is solid because it helps get you up to the top tier fighters like Nasrat, but I would rather use this fight as the last pick in my LU if they are all you can afford. I won’t be starting any LUs here and I will be underweight on both, so I will root for a boring fight.
Winner- Andre Soukhamthath via Split Decision
Misha Cirkunov $9,300 vs Patrick Cummins $6,900
Misha Cirkunov (-465) has a 13-4 record and he is 4-2 in the UFC. Misha Cirkunov has lost two in a row after a promising start to his UFC career, while Patrick Cummings is coming off a decisive decision loss against Corey Anderson. Misha Cirkunov has made a big change to his training for this matchup. He used to train at a gym with no coaches, where he and some training partners would coach and game plan themselves. He has now moved to the USA and is training in Las Vegas at Xtreme Couture, so he is getting high-level coaching for this first time in his career.
Cirkunov is a well-rounded fighter with a great overall skill set. He has nice hands. He throws his punches very quick and clean, and his right hand has good power. He has a very snappy jab, and a very nice straight right hand. He will throw a powerful one-two right down the pipe. He has a nice right hook, and he will throw a good check hook as well. He will throw body kicks, and the occasional head kick, but he can be a bit stiff with his kicking technique and doesn’t move his head off center line making himself susceptible to being countered. He has good step in knees, and a solid Superman punch. He does a good job of closing the distance with punch combinations with long hooks and uppercuts. He has a questionable chin and doesn’t seem to react well to getting clipped. He has lost back to back fights vía KO/TKO, and the KO loss he had vs Oezdimir was very strange. I think that he will have confidence even with two losses, knowing that he is finally training at a legitimate camp. He is a decorated BJJ player and a ADCC North American Gold Medalist. He is pretty good in the clinch, he does a good job of landing short punches and elbows. He can occasionally go for throws or body locks, and end up on his back, but he has decent body locks. He has a good double leg especially when he gets fighters backs against the cage. On top he is dangerous. He has solid control and good G&P. He has a plethora of submissions in MMA, such as guillotines, triangles and armbars. He has gotten an arm triangle and inverted triangle as well. He has solid takedown defense, but it hasn’t been tested much in the UFC and Glover was able to get him down in the clinch. He is decent off his back with armbars, and he does a good job of sweeping and getting top position. Glover Teixeira was able to get in a dominant position quickly and finish Cirkunov, and it seems like Cirkunov folded a bit in that match. Cirkunov should try to keep this fight on the feet and use his striking to keep Cummins at a distance and beat him up. Cummins is aging and taken a ton of damage in his UFC career, and if Misha can land clean and heavy he has a chance to get a finish here.
Patrick Cummins (+370) is 10-5 with a 6-5 UFC record. Cummins is the definition of a grinder. A gritty wrestler, who has the ability to take a large deal of punishment and keep coming. He has improved his striking over the years. He likes to use a jab, or an overhand right, and he does a good job of disguising in by faking level changes and coming over the top. He will throw a nice left hook, and a good long right hook. He will throw the occasional kick and seems to actually have a fairly strong leg kick. His high kick is not very effective, and he doesn’t throw kicks very often in general. He isn’t very fast and fighters with tighter cleaner punches really give him problems. He seems to get beat up and dropped in almost every first round he fights in, and he has a lot of scare tissue bleeding easily. He will not stop coming, and he starts to be more effective the longer the fight goes. He has been KO/TKO’d 4 times, but he does a good job of recovering quickly and has a decent chin. He doesn’t have big power and only has 3 TKO victories in his career.
He is a very strong wrestler, he has nice double legs, and will use a single leg as well. He does a good job of chain wrestling and sticking to fighters if he can’t get the initial takedown. He has good trips and body lock takedowns. He has good take down defense himself, he likes to use a switch to try to counter and end up on top. If guys do get him down, he does a great job of bellying down and standing back up. On top he has solid control and G&P, but nothing devastating, and he isn’t a submission guy. Cummins has good cardio and will be able to push even in round 3. He needs to try to close the distance and make this a grappling match. Cirkunov is much faster with his hands and will piece Cummins up from the outside. Once Cummins can get the lactic acid going in Cirkunov’s arms from wrestling then he can try to stand up for periods of time. The longer the fight goes the better for Cummins, and I see him trying to use his same game plan of wrestling and taking Cirkunov to deep waters.
Both guys here have chin issues, so it is hard to completely trust either of them. Cirkunov should have the edge in this fight if he can avoid being taken down. I think Cummins is the better wrestler and he could just make this a boring 3-round decision. Or he could get lucky and land something heavy on Cirkunov’s weak chin. Other than those two outcomes, this should be Cirkunov’s fight. On the feet, I don’t think this fight is close. Cirkunov should have a big advantage there as long as he doesn’t get caught. I think he could also land takedowns of his own and end the fight with a TKO or submission on the ground. Cirkunov has a -172 ITD line and I think I would agree that he will finish this inside the distance. At $9.3k, we will probably need that finish, but at 37 years old I don’t think Cummins has a lot left in the tank, and we know he can’t take big punches.
On DraftKings, Cirkunov is one of my favorite plays. If you can’t afford Nasrat at $9.7k, I think Cirkunov is just fine and could even score higher. If you think Cummins is going to out wrestle Cirkunov, then you should have him in your LU because any win from him would do. I just don’t think I will be going there personally. He will be low owned, and we do like wrestling in DK, but I don’t see him getting this win. I think Cirkunov is in play in all formats though and he will probably be one of my higher owned fighters. Both guys fight at a pretty high pace, each averaging over 4 sig strikes lander per minute, and over 4 landed takedowns per fight, so I think we will see a good amount of action here and that should help Cirkunov’s ceiling. He has scored over 100 DK points in 3 of his 4 wins, and I think we might see that again here in his home country.
Winner – Misha Cirkunov via 2nd round (T)KO
Michael Johnson $9,500 vs Artem Lobov $6,700
Michael Johnson (-600) has a record of 18-13 and he is 10-9 in the UFC. Johnson is a solid fighter and should have a big edge in this fight. He is extremely fast and will either use forward movement to close the distance and land hard KO shots in the pocket or stick and move with his jab from the outside. He can work moving forwards and backwards. Johnson is a southpaw with a great powerful left hand that can leave people knocked out cold. He does a good job of using a left cross to the body and right hook to the head combination. He has fast kicks too, and he throws nice low kicks, body kicks, and head kicks with good power. MJ is good at being the one to land in the pocket with more force. He has good head movement and will stay in there longer than most other fighters. He is going to be the much bigger fighter going into this matchup, and if his cardio is on point I don’t see him having much trouble on the feet with Artem. Johnson has 8 KO/TKOs and has only been finished by strikes one time in his career.
Michael Johnson was a juco wrestler but doesn’t look for wrestling in his fights. It has actually been his weakness in UFC fights. He will shoot for doubles if he feels guys are pressuring him heavily. He has improved his Jiu-Jitsu and sub defense, only being subbed 1 time in the UFC. However, he has been taken down and dominated by Paul Sass, Myles Jury, Reza Madadi, Khabib Nurmagamedov, and Darren Elkins. I highly doubt he will have to deal with any grappling in this contest. This is Michael Johnson’s fight to lose, and his clean striking technique is what he should use to try to rule the day.
Artem Lobov (+450) has a 13-14-1-1 record and he is 2-4 in the UFC. Lobov has a massive test here against Michael Johnson. The 13-14-1 fighter will need to pull a miracle to earn a victory here. Lobov has a very short reach, and it makes him very ineffective at range so Artem is forced to play a pressure and counter game. He has started implementing more leg kicks recently and that’s a smart strategy for him, but overall, he isn’t dangerous at range. He likes to keep his hands completely down to try to goad fighters into throwing were then he can try to counter and unload with his own punches. Artem actually does have good counter punching accuracy and a solid power on his right hand. If he lands clean he can put fighters in trouble, but I wouldn’t say he is a knock out artist. He really loads up on his shots such as lead hooks and uppercuts, and against educated fighters who know how to move he will miss wildly and get off balance himself. He has a great chin and has proven to be very durable over his career. He only has 4 career submissions, but he has 3 that where not counted on TUF. He has only been TKO’d one time very early in his career.
Lobov is not a grappler, and very rarely will you see him shoot a takedown or try to get in the clinch. Lobov will sometimes duck under and hit a surprise double or get a body lock takedown, but he doesn’t possess a strong top game or the ability to hold his opponents on the floor. He has solid take down defense himself, he does a good job of getting double under hooks and his low center of gravity make it hard to time a shot on him. He can get taken down when he gets over aggressive throwing shots. He can put himself off balance and opponents are able to take advantage of that and take him down. Lobov isn’t bad off his back he has a decent guard. He does a good job of using a butterfly guard to stand up and he uses the cage to wall walk up to his feet as well. Lobov isn’t much of a submission threat with only 2 in his entire career. He has good submission defense showing that surviving 3 rounds on the ground with Ryan Hall, but he has been submitted twice in his career. Both were technical submissions were Lobov refused to tap. Lobov is a warrior and extremely tough dude. He has a never say die attitude and will give it his all until the end. He needs to try to land a clean shot on Michael Johnson and finish the show. He has a punchers chance in this matchup, but to me that’s about it.
I think this is an easy matchup for Johnson. I think the line is correct at -600 and I would be surprised if he lost this fight. The only way he could lose IMO is if he gets knocked out. Artem does have power, so it’s possible, just not likely. I don’t see how MJ would lose a decision in this fight either, and if it hits the ground, it would likely be MJ taking it there. The only issue I have is that we are paying for that easy win with a $9.5k salary on DK. For that price tag, we need a finish from Johnson to be on the winning GPP LU. I don’t know if that will be the case, and his ITD line is +160 which is worse than guys priced below him. I think Johnson will have a tough time paying off that salary in a decision. I think we can count on the win, but not 100+ points. In MJ’s last 3 decision wins he scored 68, 54, and 59 DK points. If he does that at $9.5k then he kills your chances at a GPP win.
On DraftKings, my preferred play is still going to be Johnson, because he should have a huge advantage and a KO is not out of reach for him. However, I would rather just fade this fight in GPPs. Artem is cheap, so if you want to punt with him and hope for a KO, then it allows you to pay up a lot in other spots. But we most likely need 6 wins to hit that $15k win. I think he makes for a better cash game punt at his price than he does a GPP punt. In cash, we can take a 20-30-point loss from Artem and find our 4 other wins with the heavier favorites. I don’t hate that strategy. You could also use Johnson in cash because he likely is one of those easier wins and you can punt somewhere other than Artem. I just don’t like this fight for GPPs and I am not sure if it will even make my player pool, personally
Winner- Michael Johnson via Unanimous Decision
Volkan Oezdemir $8,400 vs Anthony Smith $7,800
Volkan Oezdemir (-160) has a 15-2 record and a UFC record of 3-1. Oezdemir took the UFC by storm last year winning 3 consecutive fights vs top 10 ranked opponents. Two of them in under 1 minute. He will be taking on Anthony Smith who has burst on to the scene in a similar way with two very fast knockouts in his first two matches at 205. Volkan Oezdemir is a kick boxer with bone crushing power. He is extremely aggressive especially in round 1 and comes out ready to fight right away. He walks his opponents down stalking them to the cage, while unloading with explosive punching combinations or kicks. He is very quick and athletic for someone his size and his hooks in the pocket are fast and dangerous. He does a great job of using his lead hand as a range finder and then will throw an overhand right. He has good head movement in the pocket and has nasty power in close. I have seen him knock fighters from inches away. He has very nice kicks. He will go high with head kicks and double and triple up on it. He has strong leg kicks, and he should try to use those in this matchup. He has a great chin, he is a long-time training partner of Anthony rumble Johnson and taken some huge shots against OSP and DC. He shows good ability to fire back when he is getting lit up and is always dangerous even when he’s hurt. He will stick in the pocket with a high guard and try to find his own openings to land shots. His defense can leave a lot to be desired at times. He doesn’t have great movement and tends to just back straight up with a high guard when he gets stung. He needs to be careful doing that against Smith, who is explosive closing the distance and has nasty uppercuts. Oezdemir has never been finished via strikes besides his last match where he got stuck in a crucifix. He has 11 KO/TKOs and his ability to generate power in short ranges is spooky.
Oezdemir is not a bad grappler either. He is a solid wrestler, he has good double leg take downs against the fence, and he likes to close the distance with the overhand right and then level change for take downs. He will catch kicks and take opponents down as well. When he gets on top he is devastating. He has devastating ground & pound and likes to get to half guard and then mount and rain down punches. He is extremely dangerous in the clinch with short hooks and uppercuts as well as clinch knees. When he has opponents hurt he swarms and follows up for the finish. Oezdemir will be looking to get the knockout early here, if he can land clean on Smith it could be over early.
Anthony Smith (+140) has a 30-13 record and he is 6-3 in the UFC. Smith has reinvented himself and with a win here he will be right in the mix for a title shot. Smith is still tall and long even for 205 and possesses a dangerous Muay Thai striking game. Although he is long, he doesn’t tend to use his reach well. He doesn’t throw a jab often or use lateral movement, instead he likes to be the one walking down his opponents. He has no problem taking a shot to give a shot, and that could spell disaster in this matchup. Smith has a nice lead left hook, and a strong lead uppercut in the pocket. He has a solid right hook as well. Smith has nasty kicks, great leg kicks and body kicks. He will throw a stabbing front kick to the body and has nice step in knees as well. Smith needs to be much more careful in this matchup. He can’t just walk forward behind his striking vs a tank like Volkan and should try to use some fakes and feints and stay long early. Smith is a finisher himself with good power and 16 career KO/TKOs. He has been knocked out 9 times, but only once in the last 8 years.
Smith is not much of a wrestler or an active seeker of the takedown. I have only see him go for take downs as a defensive mechanism when he’s hurt or trying to slow the forward momentum of an opponent. His take down defense is very questionable. He is tall making it easy to get in on his legs, as well as his propensity to always be in front of his opponents. He doesn’t do a good job of defending well timed shots and gets taken down rather easily. He is much better at defending take downs in the clinch. He does a good job of getting an over-hook while pulling his hips back and looking for short knees and elbows. He does a good job of framing and then landing knees and we saw that in the match with Rashad Evans. He is decent on the ground and has 11 career submissions. He is good off his back with a triangle, and his long legs make it easier for him to lock it up quickly. He has a decent half guard sweep, and overall does a decent job of protecting himself on bottom. He has been submitted 5 times himself and I don’t think he wants to be under Volkan Oezdemir in this fight. Smith needs to respect Oezdemir in this contest. He needs to be way more defensively sound early then he normally is and not wain into the fire. He should look to use his kicks and long punching techniques to stay and range early and then slowly start to wear down and pick apart Oezdemir. Smith has the ability to finish anyone if he lands clean, and he will be looking to show that again in this fight.
I think this will be a fun fight for however long it lasts. Oezdemir lands 5.91 significant strikes per minute so I think he will be the one to force the action early. He also has heavy power, so he could end this fight fast if he lands clean in that early action. I do think Smith is going to have to early the weather storm, but the longer this fight goes the more I favor him. If this fight ends in the first few minutes, I think it is more likely that Oezdemir is the one with his hand raised. Personally, I think Oezdemir is overrated. People love KO’s, so when they see a guy with one punch KO power they want to pick him to win. With Oezdemir, they are basing everything off two fights that lasted 70 total seconds. He did not look great against OSP in a 15-minutes fight, so that is the fight I like to look at when judging how good he is. He also lost to Kelly Anundson in Bellator a few years back. He does have KO power, sure, but Skill wise, I think Smith is the better all-around fighter here. What Oezdemir does have going in his favor is that Smith has been (T)KO’d 8 times in his professional career. When you are relying on a guy getting the KO win, that is a plus when his opponent has been put out that many times. However, I think that is the only way he can win this fight, which is by KO. Smith on the other hand can win this fight in multiple ways. He just needs to avoid getting knocked out. If he can do that, then he can win by (T)KO himself, he could get a submission win, or he could win a decision because I think he will be the fresher fighter going 5-rounds. For that reason, I am going to pick him to win this fight. I think Volkan has the higher ceiling here, so if I was making just 1 GPP lineup, I would probably rather have him. He could go out there and get 20 sig strikes, 2 knockdowns, and a 1st round finish. Where Smith will need to weather the storm and pick up the pace once Volkan slows down.
On DraftKings, this is my favorite fight to target. The line for Fight Doesn’t Go To Decision (FDGTD) is currently -925 and that is by far the highest on the card. That makes this the best fight to target in GPPs, and an easy stack in cash games (for me personally). If you are making 1-5 or even 1-10 LUs, I think this should be in all of them. With these guys priced in the mid-range, I have a hard time seeing the winner not on the optimal LU. Since I am picking Smith to win this fight, I am likely going to be closer to 60/40 in favor of him, but I have no issue if you want to favor Volkan instead. I do think you need exposure to both sides of this fight though. I also think we have an easy 100+ total points here, so I will be starting my cash LU with a stack. That way I won’t get killed either way, and I already have 100+ points and a win in my lineup. If I can find 3 other wins out of my 4 other spots, I think I will be sitting pretty in cash games.
Winner- Anthony Smith 3rd round submission
Thanks again for purchasing this article and be sure to hit me up on Twitter if you have any questions. I hope this write-up helps with your lineup building and I hope if I don’t take down a GPP that somebody reading this does. Good luck this weekend and enjoy the fights!
*Fighter skill-sets are written mainly by MMA Prediction Guru (Jack Dokell, @PredictionMMA on twitter). You can check out his YouTube channel with his picks and predictions at this link: https://www.youtube.com/c/MMAPredictionGuru
**All DraftKings advice and fight predictions are still from me, Kyle Marley, and if you have any questions you can DM me on twitter at @BigMarley3.
