This week I there are 10 games on the DK main slate. Out of those 10 games, only 1 has an over/under over 60 with a single digit spread. So I thought this week I would try something different. Instead of highlighting 2 games, I am going to go through all the teams with implied team total’s (ITT) over 40. I think this week this will be a good place to focus our DFS efforts. I will also throw in Texas Tech (36.5 ITT) who looks to be in a shootout with West Virginia.
Alabama (Implied Team Total 57.25) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
Alabama has totally revamped their style. When they once dominated on defense and were adequate on offense, they are now still dominant on defense yet also dominant on offense. Through 4 games, Alabama is averaging over 53 points a game while allowing under 13. It is scary to say but this might be the best Alabama team we have seen yet. The problem this team brings to DFS is their amazing abundance of talent. There are 2 quarterbacks that see time, 2 running backs that eat up each other’s production. While this is built into each of these players pricing, it still puts a hard cap on their ceiling. With that being said, I think the best place to attack with Alabama is at the wide receiver position. Jerry Jeudy has been a touchdown machine this year with 17 receptions for 365 yards and 6 touchdowns. I also love Devonta Smith who has just 3 fewer targets than Jeudy. He has not had as many big plays or touchdowns but he also comes at a $1400 savings. Tight end Irv Smith Jr has been targeted 4-5 times a game and has 13 catches for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns. Smith Jr is only $4500 this week.
QB – Tua Tagovailoa – $9,000
RB – Damien Harris – $6,800 / Najee Harris – $6,400
WR – Jerry Jeudy – 4,300 / Devonta Smith – $5,900
WR – Henry Ruggs III – $5,300 / Irv Smith Jr – $4500
Texas A&M (ITT 40.25) vs Arkansas (Neutral Site)
Texas A&M is 2-2 on the year but their losses have come to the #1 and #2 teams in the country. On paper, they have a balanced offense but game to game those stats change drastically. In both of their blow out wins, the Aggies have run the ball more than they have passed. In both of their losses, they have been held close to 100 yards rushing. Arkansas has sneakily been a top 10 team against the run so this might be a week I fade running back Trayveon Williams. That being said, Arkansas is ranked 100th against the pass. Kellen Mond has had a very consistent year fantasy wise, with no games under 20 points, but this week DraftKings is making you pay for that production. Where Mond was $6,000 last week, he is up to $9,200 this week. There are quarterbacks around his price range that I like much better this week. The pass catchers for the Aggies do have a chance this week to have a great game. Mond spreads the ball out, with 5 players with 18 or more targets. Jhamon Ausbon and Camron Buckley have been the top receivers for A&M with 49 targets but out of those, only 8 have been in the red zone and neither has hit pay dirt. Jace Sternberger, the tight end for the Aggies is their main red zone threat. He has 23 targets on the season, 8 of those coming in the red zone for 4 touchdowns total.
QB – Kellen Mond – $9,200
RB – Trayveon Williams – $8,100
WR – Jhamon Ausbon – $5,600 / Jace Sternberger – $5,200
WR – Camron Buckley – $5,100 / Kendrick Rogers – $4,800 / Quartney Davis – $4,600
Oklahoma State (ITT 40) @ Kansas
Oklahoma State is another school that has been putting up big numbers on offense. They are averaging over 500 yards and over 40 points a game. Last week, they had a bit of a hiccup losing to Texas Tech 41-17, but this is a very talented and DFS rich team. I look for them to get back on track this week, traveling to face Kansas on the road. While everyone was high on Kansas for winning 2 in a row, the Jayhawks gave up almost 450 yards to Baylor. This is also the same Jayhawk team that lost to FCS Nicholls State. Oklahoma State has a very balanced offense, throwing the ball 36 times and rushing 40 times a game. The quarterback play for the Cowboys has been suspect from time to time with Taylor Cornelius throwing 8 TDs and 4 interceptions on the year. He is one I will fade as well, seeing all the fantasy goodness within a few hundred dollars of him. Justice Hill has quietly been fantastic at running back. He has over 100 yards rushing in 3 of 4 games and at least 1 touchdown every game. Wide receiver is interesting for Oklahoma State. It was announced Monday that senior Jalen McCleskey would be redshirting and transferring. While Tylan Wallace will remain the top receiver, with 51 targets on the year, I think this really impacts the other receivers more. Dillon Stoner and Tyron Johnson will each see their target share go up. The biggest impact, and someone I really want to look at if I am going to MME this is Landon Wolf. Wolf was listed as McClesky’s backup and it looks like he will now get bumped up into the starting role.
QB – Taylor Cornelius – $9,500
RB – Justice Hill – $9,100
WR – Tylan Wallace $8,400 / Dillon Stoner $6,000
WR – Tyron Johnson $4,900 / Landon Wolf $3,000
Clemson (ITT 43) vs. Syracuse
Clemson has spent the season with a quarterback carousel but this week that comes to an end. Freshman Trevor Lawrence has been named the starter. Lawrence has had about half of all attempts averaging 9.8 yards per attempts and 2.25 TDs per game. Extrapolated out over a full game Lawrence would be averaging over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns a game. Since the news came out that Lawrence would be the starter, the projected total rose 3 points and the spread grew by 1.5 points. I think Lawrence getting named the starter will also help running back Travis Etienne. Backup QB Kelly Bryant is a dual threat QB and that cut into Etienne’s production. Etienne is averaging 8.5 yards per run but only had around 12 runs a game, with Bryant having about 8. This could open up a lot more runs for the back. Wide receiver has not been a great spot to chase DFS production from the Tigers, as 14 receivers have catches. Amari Rodgers is the most targeted receiver with 20 targets for 16 catches for 186 yards and a touchdown. Tee Higgins and Hunter Renfroe have 18 targets each. Behind them, no receiver has more than 8 targets.
QB – Trevor Lawrence $8,500
RB – Travis Etienne – $8,100
WR – Tee Higgins – $5,700 / Amari Rodgers – $5,000 / Hunter Renfroe $4,700
West Virginia (ITT 40.5) @ Texas Tech
West Virginia has been one of the sharpest teams in the country. They are averaging almost 550 yards and over 40 points a game. They face a Texas Tech team that is giving up over 435 yards per game and this is expected to be a shootout. This game is going to be a fantasy bonanza and I want as much of it as I can get. Heisman hopeful and starting quarterback Will Grier has had an amazing season so far. In 3 games he is throwing for almost 375 yards a game and has 14 touchdown passes. He does not yet have a game under 30 DK points and averages over 35. This is a team that is very balanced as far as playcalling goes, but with a 3 headed monster in the backfield, I would fade the running backs. One great thing about the Mountaineers is the concentrated production at receiver. Marcus Simms has 15 receptions for 295 yards and a touchdown. Target leader David Sills has 246 yards and 5 touchdowns on 19 receptions. Finally, Gary Jennings has 15 receptions for 241 yards and 4 touchdowns. With such a concentrated output, I want a big piece of this team this week.
QB – Will Grier – $10,900
RB – Split Backfield
WR – David Sills V – $8,800 / Greg Jenning Jr – $8,000 / Marcus Simms – $6,900
Texas Tech (!TT 36.5) vs. West Virginia
Texas Tech comes into the week averaging 52 points a game. At 621 yards a game on offense they are throwing for over 435 yards and rushing for over 185 yards. Wow! This Tech team has fantasy goodness all over it. To start, freshman Alan Bowman has been on fire. He has thrown for over 1400 yards and 10 touchdowns through 2 games. Don’t expect that to change this week. Due to injuries, running backs have been rotated throughout the year, many of them having success in a rotating backfield. With West Virginia having a top 25 rushing defense and this game expected to be a shootout, I will not try to guess who will be healthy and featured this week. This week I want to target all the wide receiver glory for the Red Raiders. Texas Tech has 5 receivers with 20 plus targets. Antoine Wesley is their obvious top threat with 30 receptions on 47 targets for 511 yards and 4 touchdowns. Ja’Deion High comes into the game with 22 receptions on 28 targets for 301 yards and 2 touchdowns. TJ Vasher has 32 targets with 16 receptions for 273 yards and 3 touchdowns. All of these players again are in play. This is a game I want a ton of exposure to.
QB – Alan Bowman – $10,000
RB – Check news, 2 coming off injuries
WR – Antoine Wesley – $8,300 / TJ Vasher – $7,000
WR – Ja’Deion High – $6,700 / Kesean Carter – $4,400 / Zach Austin – $3,400
Georgia (ITT 42.5) vs. Tennessee
Georgia is one of the best football teams in the country, but they aren’t that great of a DFS option. That being said, there are some options that can be looked at on Georgia. Jake Fromm, the Bulldogs quarterback, is averaging just under 185 yards a game passing and 2.25 touchdown passes a game. This is a team that runs the ball twice as much as it throws and he is a fade for me. Last game was the first game of the year where Georgia had less than 8 players run the ball. D’Andre Swift and Elijah Holyfield are the main two backs in this offense, but with this being a potential blow out game, I see Georgia going back to the giant committee approach. These 2 are potential GPP plays but I will be fading them myself. Georgia only has 2 receivers with more than 7 targets, Mecole Hardman and Riley Ridley. Hardman has 14 receptions on 21 targets for 247 yards and 4 touchdowns. Ridley has 13 receptions on 16 targets for 169 yards and 3 touchdowns. This is the most efficient and reliable way to use this Georgia team for DFS.
QB – Jake Fromm – $7,800
RB – Elijah Holyfield – $6,200 / D’Andre Swift $5,700
WR – Mecole Hardman – $6,500 / Riley Ridley – $5,500
Oklahoma (ITT 45.25) vs Baylor
Coming off of an overtime win over Army, Oklahoma looks to keep their momentum going against a pesky Baylor team. Sneakily, Baylor has had a top 15 pass defense this year, but I do not expect that to hold down Heisman hopeful quarterback Kyler Murray. Murray has thrown for over 1,000 yards this season with 11 touchdown passes. He also has 240 yards rushing with 3 touchdowns on the ground. Murray has at least 30 DK points in every game he has fully played. Since stud Rodney Anderson got hurt, the start has gone to Trey Sermon. In the 2 games since he has been the starter, Sermon has 13 and 18 carries. Oklahoma really likes to attack through the air, and their main two weapons are Marquise Brown and CeeDee Lamb. Brown has been targeted 31 times with 19 receptions for 412 yards and 3 touchdowns. Lamb has 16 receptions on 21 targets for 247 yards and 4 touchdowns. While Baylor has had a good passing defense, I think these are both still fine all-around plays.
QB – Kyler Murray – $10,700
RB – Trey Sermon – $7,200
WR – Marquise Brown – $7,700 / CeeDee Lamb – $6,800
Central Florida (ITT 41) vs. Pittsburgh
Central Florida is one of the most fun teams to watch in the country. With McKenzie Milton airing the ball out all over the place, the offense is very explosive. UCF has averaged 50 points and almost 600 total yards a game. Milton, a Heisman hopeful, is throwing for almost 300 yards and running for another 50 each game. He has 9 passing touchdowns and 3 rushing touchdowns on the year. His favorite target has been Gabriel Davis, with 20 receptions on 32 targets. The other 2 primary receivers are Dredrick Snelson and Tre Nixon. Snelson, thought to be the top receiver coming into the year, has 15 catches for 197 yards and a touchdown. Nixon has 11 receptions for 187 yards and 2 touchdowns. The backfield is a little tougher to figure out for the Golden Knights. Adrian Killins is the featured back, but he only gets 11 carries a game. While there is good production running the ball on this offense, it is so spread out that it is hard to capture.
QB – McKenzie Milton – $10,500
RB – Adrian Killins Jr. – $6,100
WR – Gabriel Davis – $7,500 / Dredrick Snelson – $6,200 / Tre Nixon – $5,400
One more thing…
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