NFL Stacks for GPP’s on FanDuel and DraftKings
These days, it seems like everyone under the sun knows you need to combine your quarterback with a top pass catcher to maximize your scoring ceiling. With the massive tournaments that are littered all over the lobby in both FanDuel and DraftKings, it’s going to take more than just stacking a quarterback and receiver. It’s going to take a mix of game theory, leverage on ownership of the public, pivoting off of the chalk while still being able to get a piece of the good spots, and giving up a little pride and buying into something that is hard to fully trust – projections from an algorithm in an optimizer (preferably ours).
**Before we get started I just want to show you exactly what we have upcoming for the NFL season. Football is upon us and whether it’s season-long fantasy football or DFS, the staff here at DFS Army has you covered. If this link doesn’t make you so excited that you want to run through a brick wall then I don’t know what will. Here is what is in store for the 2018 NFL season.**
FanDuel GPP Stacks
On the DFS Army website, there is a tool called “Research Station“. There are a dozen or so tabs that you can open and download or just view on the site. One of them is the “FD Stack builder”. There is so much information on splits, trends, snap counts, historical data going back three seasons, a unique rating system, algorithms that spit out specific values and projections, and a whole lot of data that is clearly laid out for you.
I will be using this research tab and a little bit of my own research to highlight a handful of stacks that I think are viable options to take down tournaments of varying sizes (not all stacks are created equal and the bigger the tournament size the more the approach changes to winning a GPP).
Ben Rothlisberger + Antonio Brown + Jarvis Landry
This is the highest projected stack (49.79 points) based off of our RS (Research Station) and I think it is a strong one. A lot of people will stack Big Ben with Antonio Brown and call it a day. This approach is absolutely fine and if you’re playing in a smaller field GPP (several hundred entrants or less), this stack will likely be semi-chalky and that’s okay.
If you are rolling this stack in a massive tournament with 10,000 + entrants, or one of those insane GPPs that FanDuel and DraftKings are offering in Week 1 with several hundred thousand entrants, you’re going to need to differentiate yourself a little bit. By stacking Ben with AB and running it back with Jarvis Landry, we are theorizing that Ben and Brown are having a field day and lighting up the scoreboard.
In response to the Steelers scoring at will through the air, the Browns have to play catch-up football and Tyrod will have to move the ball down the field through the air. If facing pressure and needing to get the ball out quick or if the Steelers are playing two high safeties and forcing the ball underneath, then Tyrod will pepper Jarvis Landry up and down the field where Landry thrives (as evidenced by his weak average depth of target – also known as, aDOT).
Tyrod Taylor + Jarvis Landry + Antonio Brown
A lesser owned stack that correlates well with the same game theory as above is to run out Tyrod Taylor and Jarvis Landry and run it back with Antonio Brown. It’s a much cheaper stack due to Tyrod being less expensive than Big Ben, but allows us to capitalize on this game if the theoretical situation that we identified plays itself out. It settles in as the 5th highest projected stack via the RS (45.07 FanDuel points) but actually is the 2nd best value stack on the main slate as it costs just 37% of your salary cap.
Marcus Mariota + Delanie Walker + Kenny Stills
The Dolphins were dead last in the NFL against opposing tight ends in 2017. They gave up 94 receptions, over 1,034 yards, and 10 touchdowns to tight ends. In 2017, Martiota threw 27.6% of his passing attempts to his tight ends. That was the 2nd most in the entire NFL! Delanie Walker had a 24.6% target share (2nd most for TEs) and a 23.8% receiving yards share (3rd most for TEs).
Kenny Stills might hog the targets in Week 1 with Davante Parker on the mend from an injury. If Parker misses then Still likely will have the inside track to soak up double-digit targets against a team that was decent against the pass last year but only because they deflated the football by running it so much. I think the Dolphins will have to play in “comeback mode” for most of the game which means they’ll be throwing early and often.
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NFL DFS Podcast and Vegas Lines Breakdown for Week 1
The 10-minute podcast can be found here:
iTunes – Week 1
Google Play – Week 1
This graphic is via our Domination Station (DS). Currently, the optimizer (DS) is compatible with FanDuel, DraftKings, and FantasyDraft. The DS also is fully uploaded with up to the minute projections and customizations for six different sports every single day. Feel free to follow along with this graphic during the Vegas portion of the podcast linked above.
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DraftKings GPP Stacks
The above graphic is the same tool as the FanDuel Stack Builder, however, this algorithm that created these stacks (and dozens more not pictured in this photo) was specifically developed for DraftKings.
Andy Dalton + A.J. Green + Jack Doyle
Andy Dalton finished 2017 with a 5.2% touchdown rate which is the 5th highest on the main slate out of 24 eligible quarterbacks. The Colts defense is wretched and the Bengals also picked up a stud left-tackle, Cordy Glenn in the off-season. Dalton to Green could be a massive payday at a single-digit ownership stack.
If we are truly concerned about Andrew Luck’s health or arm strength, a simple way to run this stack back is to use Jack Doyle in the hopes that Luck keeps his throws short and quick rather than taking those deep 7-step drops that have caused him so many injuries in his career. The Bengals are also going to be missing Vontaze Burfict, which can only help the Colts run the football and work the middle of the field as the Bengals stud MLB and defensive captain will be missing.
Russell Wilson + Tyler Lockett + Demaryius Thomas
I like this stack for several reasons. The main reason is that the total cost of these three players is just $16,200 which is 32.4% of the DraftKings salary cap. That’s really cheap!
Demaryius Thomas had the 11th best target share in 2016 (25.9%) and 12th best in 2017 (25.4%). He also was top-12 in targets in both seasons. Prior to the terrible quarterback play over the last couple of seasons, DT had 92, 111, and 105 receptions and over 1,300 yards from 2013-2015. On top of that, his red-zone prowess was evidenced by his 31 total touchdowns across those 48 games. With Case Keenum under center and a solid offense around him. DT should run wild on the Seahawks who are missing 7 starters from last year’s defense in Week 1 due to free agency or injury.
Doug Baldwin may or may not even suit up for this game. I think that we need to pay attention to the injury report and beat writers. If Baldwin is hurt or limited, Tyler Lockett could get the lions share of the targets. With Baldwin on the field (hopefully moving well), he’d draw the attention from lock down corner Chris Harris. This would be the best case scenario for Lockett, who would be in a good spot to be the lead dog for the pass catchers in Week 1.
Lastly, both defenses are still seen as the elite stoppers that they were several years ago. While they both are still good, neither team is really considered so difficult that you should completely fade match-ups against them. The only team that really gets close to that level in 2018 is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Deshaun Watson + DeAndre Hopkins + Chris Hogan
While everyone under the sun knows this game will be jam packed with offense, most will flock to the name recognition of the greatest quarterback of all time, Tom Brady. Then the fish will stack up Rob Gronkowski with him under the premise that he’ll just pepper him with a dozen plus targets as his only true receiver he trusts in a plus match-up. While this scenario might end up happening, the ownership level of a Brady to Gronk stack is going to be extremely high. We want to fade this type of high ownership in a large field GPP. In a small field GPP, it’s completely okay to roll this out.
Let’s say the Patriots are firing on all cylinders and the Texans keep pace and score at will. This would likely be the result of Watson and Hopkins just toying with the undermanned Patriots defense. By running it back with Chris Hogan, we still are able to target a very chalky game but grab a lower exposure 3-player game stack simply by not using Tom Brady or Rob Gronkowski. In addition to this theory, the RS has the aforementioned Watson, Hopkins, and Hogan stack as the 5th highest project score (52.37 DraftKings points).
Two Minute Warning
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My Week 1 Content Schedule (I roll out 4 of 20 articles/podcasts the company publishes):
Donut Shop – Week 1 NFL Preview for FanDuel and DraftKings
MME Playbook – Main Slate (Publishes on Saturday and is VIP only)
MME Playbook – Prime-Time Slate (Publishes on Sunday and is VIP only)