This article will be providing my top GPP plays. Before we start, a pack of Jaguars is called a Jamboree…There, does the name of the article make sense now? Good! I’m a funny guy, people call me funny Louie. Alright no one calls me funny Louie but regardless, here are my main slate GPP plays for Tuesday, July 24th.
Pitchers
Aaron Nola has the best matchup of the night! Nola sets to face the Los Angeles Dodgers, a very talented, lefty heavy team that for some reason CANNOT touch Aaron Nola. The Phillies starters owns a .115 batting average against the Dodgers with nine strikeouts in 26 at bats. each batter has an individual batting average under .200 (most having a .000 BA) with the exception to Kiki Hernandez who is only 1 for 2 with a single. Okay, I know these BvP stats are in small sample sizes but when you look closer they’re more significant than you think. Only three Dodgers have hit off Nola; Grandal, Hernandez and Bellinger, each with a single. In addition to poor batting averages against Nola the Dodger have poor contact rates as well indicating they just can’t touch Nola’s stuff. Listen that happens, certain pitchers dominate certain teams. This is likely one of those situations. Although slight underdogs, the Phillies have a legit shot at winning this game. I do think it will be close but likely low scoring. I’m hoping Nola can grab the W tonight, along with a killer outing that I know he is capable of.
Drew Pomeranz faces the strikeout prone, low scoring, Manny Machado less Orioles. Since his departure the O’s are the league’s 20th ranked offense, while striking out a league high 49 times. The Orioles actually hit just as poor against lefties as they do righties… almost. But does it really batter when the numbers are bad all around? Baltimore is batting .232 as a team against lefties while maintaining a .292 OBP & a shockingly low .367 SLG for a team that usually can hit the long ball if nothing else. All I know is that Pomeranz is at a shockingly low salary, facing one of the worst teams in the league and should go low owned. GPP goodness, IF he can get back to solid form. The Red Sox are favored by -144 with a 9.5 O/U. This play may end up being for tomorrow with the PPD risk but nonetheless worth the write up.
Other pitching option(s): Austin Gomber & Zach Wheeler ( GPP safety!)
Stacks
The St. Louis Cardinals absolutely kill Homer Bailey! The team owns a .370 overall average with eight homeruns in 172 at bats. These numbers are way too high considering the amount of times the Cardinals have seen Bailey. In over 172 at bats, the pitcher should have some decent success in certain spots, but it seems Homer Bailey seriously struggles against the Cardinals especially in Cincinnati. Bailey owns a 7.12 home ERA allowing nine homeruns this season, which is honestly just horrible. Pair that with a dominant Cardinals team since the All-Star break and you have 10+ runs. Honestly that is what I think the Cardinals are capable of tonight, 10+ runs. Just make sure you have Matt Carpenter in there! The Cardinals are favored by -117 with a 10 O/U.
The New York Mets right handed batters have significant advantages tonight in Citi Field. With left hander Eric Lauer on the mound the Mets have strong winds to left, meaning homerun potential for the Mets righties! Righties are hitting .305 with 9 homeruns against Lauer. The winds should be strong at 16 mph and Eric Lauer owns a 4.87 ERA on the year allowing 11 homeruns in 16 starts. Bautista , Flores and Mesoraco all have the long ball potential tonight and at a reasonable salary. The Mets are favored by -135 with a 7.5 O/U.
Other stack option(s): Tampa Bay Rays & Oakland A’s
One-Off of the Day
Matt Carpenter owns a .487 batting average in 39 at bats against Homer Bailey. He has been rocking the ball as of late. He has the matchup tonight and has been killing it WITHOUT the matchup in a hand full of games since the All-Star break. I’m all in on the Cardinals tonight, meaning I’m all in on Carpenter – right now this team rises and falls with his efforts. Let’s just hope it’s the ladder.
Value Plays by Position
P Austin Gomber
C Jesus Sucre
1B Mark Trumbo
2B Daniel Robertson
3B Matt Duffy
SS Jordy Mercer
OF Trey Mancini
OF Kevin Keirmaier
OF Brett Gardner
Good luck!