Welcome to this weeks Chalk Donkey article for DFS PGA Golf. It’s time for #OurMajor as we head across the border for the RBC Canadian Open at Glen Abbey!
My name is Josh Thomas, and I’ll be writing the Chalk Donkey article for VIP’s every week here at DFS Army looking at who the chalk plays are in DFS Golf and who you can pivot to. We’ll look at if you nee
d to eat the chalk especially in cash games, and take a deep dive into some pivots using our Research Station and the Domination Station.
What an Open Championship! I will never get sick of watching Tiger contending on Sunday at a major in that trademark blood red shirt. (Though the blade collar is disgusting and I’m glad he didn’t win wearing it). It was a bit of a mixed bag for me last week. Justin Rose drilling that putt on 18 Friday afternoon was key to me at least getting back to even for the week. No Molinari (I just thought…no way he can keep this up right? Doh!) and too much DJ killed me regardless of some solid plays like Thorbjorn Olesen and Eric Van Rooyen. We had some nice wins among the army and I’m looking forward to the next major on the schedule, Our Major, The RBC Canadian Open!
Our compatriots up north feel left out so they are trying to get #ourmajor trending when referring to this event! As an honorary Canadian (I literally grew up 400 feet from the border and missed being born there by only a few hours. Many of my family members still live there) I figured I’d help them out and try to get it trending here!
We actually have a pretty solid field this week given that is the week after the major and that has to do with RBC being the title sponsor of the event and being a big sponsor of many players. Due that we have some nice contests on each site and I’m excited to get back at it after a bit of a disappointing week last week so lets get to the course breakdown:
Course Breakdown:
The RBC Canadian Open returns to Glen Abbey Golf Club for the last time this year after a long run of hosting the tournament. Glen Abbey was Jack Nicklaus’ first solo golf course design in 1976 and started hosting the Canadian Open the next year. In total its hosted 25 Canadian Opens, including the last 3 in a row.
Jhonnatan Vegas is the two time defending champion here, other notable winners on this course are Jason Day, Brandt Snedeker, Chez Reavie, Vijay Singh, and Tiger Woods.
We finally return to a par 72 for the first time in forever which means we get four par 5’s and a ton of scoring opportunities as they play as the four easiest holes on the course. The par 5’s gave up 69 eagles which is crazy for a tour event.
The course plays at 7253 yards which is short for tour standards, but with the lack of rain in the Toronto area it’s possible it’ll play even shorter like we saw in 2015, the year Jason Day won had incredible hard and fast fairways that let the ball roll out. There is rain in the forecast for Wednesday which should soften things up a bit.
The greens are Bentgrass which will be important to remember for putting splits but the bigger issue is that they are SMALL. At 5,600 sq. ft. on average they are postage stamp size so if guys aren’t hitting them they will need to be good around the green. Last year we saw Gary Woodland and Charley Hoffman both blow chances to win because they couldn’t get up and down for birdie on 18 from around the green. SG: ARG comes in at 3rd in stat correlations for players who win here but more on that later.
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Greens should roll at around 11.5 on the stimpmeter so it will be a little faster than last week at the Open Championship but thats average on tour. As with any northern climate course the poa annua grass creeps into the greens and can cause them to be a bit bumpy in the afternoon if the sun is out.
While the fairways are considered tough to hit here due to their width a field average of only 49% fairways hit the rough typically isn’t that penal and you are still able to attack greens. Similar to last week though Glen Abbey is well bunkered and you want to stay out of the fairway bunkers here unless your Tiger Woods who hit a 218 yard 6 iron out of the fairway bunker on 18 over water the whole way to 18 feet for a birdie and a win.
Driver is huge here, but distance isn’t necessarily king. Having a good overall game off the tee seems to be the key to success. You don’t have to hit 70% of the fairways but 50% seems to be the standard for winners here. We’ve seen winners who have done one or the other well and win, I’d probably give a bit of an edge to driving distance, but doing both will be key to overall success.
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First let’s breakdown what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the RBC Canadian Open.
Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab and at a major it is no different. Who is popping as a value this week. This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab looks at Vegas odds and our projections, versus the salary FanDuel or DraftKings have assigned to that player.
A couple guys popping in the value tab this week and all in that range that you need if you want to cram in DJ. Of the 5 here, Kirk has the highest projection for us, but I feel pretty confident firing up any of these five in GPP and I think Dahmen and Mitchell are both cash viable as well. (I know Mitchell doesn’t scream cash, but he’s actually made 75% of his cuts this year)
SG: Off the Tee –
Driving the ball well is going to be key here and Strokes Gained Off the Tee does a good job of combining driving accuracy and distance and showing who is really the best overall driver of the golf ball.
Norman Xiong has a small sample size and so does Cameron Champ but both are really excellent drivers of the ball. If we look we also have the typical bombers in JB Holmes, Bubba Watson, Gary Woodland, and Dustin Johnson but the surprising one here is Joaquin Niemann who we don’t think of as a bomber necessarily but he has consistently gained strokes off the tee in every event.
Strokes Gained: Approach (Last 5) –
As always, we want to target SG: Approach but I think it is going to be vitally important here as this appears to be a course that is going to reward solid second shots from everywhere on the course. With the smaller greens and the need to birdie here we want guys who are putting it tight.
We’re starting to see a trend here with some of these guys, whether they are value plays, good off the tee, or DJ (See I told you I’m all in on him this week). If you follow along with us you know that Dahmen always appears here as he is one of the best iron players on tour. DK can’t seem to ever price him up. He really should be in the mid 8k’s this week yet here he is at 7.4K. Tyler Duncan is one of my favorite plays this week as he can really fill up the cup with birdies and this seems like the perfect course for him.
Projected Course Score –
Projected Course Score takes the Fantasy Points that each player scores on the type of holes on that course (short par 4, long par 5 etc.) and sums them up to see who is really the best ‘course fit’ here.
I expanded this one a bit so you can see why a lot of these guys are showing up. Par 5 scoring is king here. and with 3 short Par 5’s you get a LOT of scoring. No surprise that Dustin Johnson tops the list here, but it IS a a surprise that Fabian Gomez pops. He apparently has been crushing par 5’s lately. Some other standard names like Keegan Bradley and Brandon Harkins show up as they are kind of Stat Model darlings. Another surprising name here though is Steve Stricker. He hasn’t played here much (63rd in 2015) but it appears that this is a good course fit for him regardless.
Par 5 Scoring –
This list will look pretty similar to the one from above, but I’ll take a look anyways and we really want guys who can score on Par 5’s this week.
Interesting that Cam Percy shows up here when you think that he doesn’t really fit the profile of a bomber but his off the tee stats are good and so are his approach numbers. He also has pretty solid course history here and is coming off a 7th place finish at the Barbasol.
One thing to note in the RS this week is we have gone to field adjusted Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, and Greens in Regulation. This gives you a better idea of how players are doing compared to the field.
Other key stats to consider this week, that I’ll get into in my breakdown of the chalk donkeys:
Adjusted Field Rank, Fantasy Points/Hole, FP/Par 3 Avg. Greens in Regulation Gained, Cut %, Double Bogey or Worse Percentage, and SG: Putting. I’ll specifically look at any changes in the Strokes gained categories in the last 5 as opposed to the season for players.
Who are this week’s DFS Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
Above 10K:
There’s only 3 players priced above 10K this week and we get a pretty stacked field in terms of OWGR at the top end of the pricing this week so lets take a look at who is generating the most buzz and if the chalk there is worth eating.
Dustin Johnson: DK $11,700/FD $12,500
I said it last week when DJ missed the cut. I’m ALL IN on DJ here. I don’t care how chalky he is going to be (and it could be less than we are projecting just due to his high price tag and the lineup you have to build with him in it) I’m going to be VERY overweight on the number 1 player in the world here.
Over the last two years (which counts for OWGR) DJ has missed the cut 5 times in 43 events. During that stretch he also has 7 wins, 4 seconds, 4 thirds, and 7 other top tens. That means that he finished top ten 22 times in 43 events. Over 50% of the time in the last two years DJ has finished inside the top ten. Thats ridiculous. Fade DJ at your own risk. This course is a perfect fit for him.
DJ currently is #1 in the field in….
Projected Course Score, Fantasy Points/Hole, Short Par 5 Scoring, and adjusted field rank.
He’s also #2 in Driving Distance and Greens in Regulation.
There’s absolutely no reason to fade DJ this week, and I certainly won’t be. Oh yeah there is this too, check out his Course History.
Three trips, three top tens. He’s stated publicly how much he wants to win this event as well. (If you didn’t know he’s married to Wayne Gretzky’s daughter, thats basically Canadian Royalty.)
Fire up DJ in GPP this week. I don’t think you need to pay up for him in cash with some of the value in the 9K range.
Outside of DJ, Brooks Koepka and Tommy Fleetwood will have significantly less ownership. I have very little interest in Koepka unless its the US Open (Seriously, check his game log) but Tommy makes a very interesting case here for a pivot off a chalky DJ if you want to go that route.
Let’s look at Tommy compared to DJ in a couple key stats here. Tommy is clearly not as long as DJ, but hits quite a few more fairways and his field adjusted birdies gained is number one in the field this week. DJ’s FP gained is benefited a bit by playing in birdie fests like the FedEx St. Jude. Tommy doesn’t find himself in trouble that much because of how accurate he is with his driver and irons (barring that brutal drive on #6 at the Open Championship that went OB)
Tommy just isn’t that far behind and given the 1200 price savings I think I justify moving some shares from DJ to Tommy (…fine I won’t go 100%) and differentiating myself in GPP’s.
9K:
We get a nine player 9K range this week with lots of good options with one player standing out as a clearly the chalkiest play of the week.
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Tony Finau: DK $9800/FD $12100
No way did I think Finau would be priced here this week, but like I said last week apparently he screwed someone at DK and they just keep underpricing him compared to his odds to win. He currently has better odds to win than Tommy Fleetwood and I think its possible we see some drift with him this week as he’s already down to 14-1 at Bovada.
Tony Finau is an excellent play this week. He’s coming in with great form and has a top 5 here from last year. He will also most likely be the most owned player on the slate.
It’s possible to build DJ/Finau stacks this week with some of the value down low and I think that might be one of the popular builds this week. I personally won’t have much of it and if I do I will try to really differentiate down low.
I think I’ll be underweight on Finau in GPP this week and hedge him as cash game lock for me. He should push 50% ownership in cash and I would imagine in most H2h’s he’ll be owned by your opponent. I’ll be starting cash with him and working my way down the list.
The rest of the 9K range will have spread out ownership anywhere from 10-15%. Jimmy Walker will be sub 5% but I can’t get on board with him the way he’s been playing lately. If for some reason he pops, good for the 3% of people who own him, it might mean you don’t win a GPP but not having him won’t kill you.
I have some interest in a low owned Sergio Garcia as a GPP pivot so lets take a look at him in the RS.
His field adjusted stats look OK. He’s a fairly accurate driver of the ball and hits a decent amount of greens in regulation. Recently though his iron play and pretty much everything about his game has not been very good on the US side.
Lots of red there, which is never a good thing. That being said, we don’t have data from his T8 and T12 on the European tour prior to bombing out at the Open Championship.
Sergio sucks on the big stage. He really does. I’m surprised he was actual able to finish out at Augusta and get a green jacket but the stars aligned for him. I think this is a spot though that he can succeed without any real pressure. The amount of water on the concerns me a bit, but getting one of the top players in not only the field, but the world at sub 8% ownership makes me very interested in playing 10-20% regardless of current form. This is a strictly GPP play and ONLY if you are making more than 20 lineups.
Obviously, Matt Kuchar is in play and can be considered for cash games as well but there’s one more player here I’m really interested in that should come in underowned and thats Gary Woodland.
Gary has been rounding back into form after an AWFUL stretch following his win this year at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and now comes to a course that really fits his eye and skill set. Driver heavy, not very long but benefits bombers, and bentgrass putting surfaces which he clearly is more comfortable on than bermuda.
A 4th place finish here last year shows he has win equity and I like that he is 4th in fantasy points gained on medium par 4’s (There are 7 of them) and 8th in long par 5’s (only one, but I think they correlate).
I’ll have quite a bit of Woodland in GPP to pivot off the chalk donkey I’ll talk about next at the top of the 8K Range.
8K:
Oofta…this range is what you would call…not good…
I actually like the 7K Range significantly better than this range this week but there are a few plays I’m interested in here. First and foremost though Wes Bryan is maybe the worst play on the slate. Do NOT play him. He just missed the cut at the Barbasol. Play Wes Bryan at short Pete Dye courses that you don’t have to hit a driver at. Not here.
Charley Hoffman: DK 8700/FD 10800
Chucky Hoffman is way too cheap here coming in with three top 10’s in a row and odds to win that are 30 points better than those priced around him he’s a great value. This pricing will make him mega chalk though. I’m not sure who will be more popular between Hoffman and Finau but it’ll be close.
Hoffman is a great play and its easy to see why people are on him. Great current form, good course history. Solid projected course score. He checks all the boxes. I’ll have some and just try to differentiate elsewhere. He’s also a cash lock for me.
If you want to pivot off Chalk Hoffman there’s a couple of sneaky options that I like this week.
Steve Stricker is a very intriguing option just $100 more than Hoffman. Some may be scared off because of the narrative that this is a bomber’s course but he actually crushes par 5’s (lots of birdies) because he doesn’t make mistakes. Fairways and Greens. Thinks his way around the course, can easily see him top ten here.
No one has better course history than Brandt Snedeker here but I question the state of his game right now a bit. 3rd at the Greenbrier is sandwiched by two huge MC’s where he was really bad. Will be fairly popular among the course history crowd so fading him isn’t out of the question. I love Brandt and want to him to do will but will have minimal or no shares.
I struggle playing Canadians here because theres usually a big cloud over their head that no canadian has won here since god knows when and they grip the club a little tighter. The only Canadians that traditionally do well are the amateurs for some reason (no pressure?) Adam Hadwin’s game has started to come around and he’s showing signs of life but I’ll be off him.
Keegan Bradley is an interesting play at this price and I’ll have some shares. He’s accurate with the driver and has a great approach game. If his putter cooperates another top twenty is not out of the question.
A player that will get very little ownership and is a GPP only play is David Lingmerth. I know I’m usually on the DONT PLAY LINGMERTH but because he’s so priced up he won’t get any ownership. He’s not a good value play and will be in some contrarian lineups for me because he has a good combination of good form coming in and good course history. He’s a good medium Par 4 scorer and his approach game has been on fire.
7K:
We have a big range here with 5 Chalk Donkeys and the rest of the range falling under 10% with most under 5%.
Jhonny Vegas DK: $7500/FD $8700
has back to back wins here. That hasn’t panned out for guys going for three in a row. I’m just autofading him this week. I know he’s been good here coming in with awful form but I can’t bring myself to play a guy on course history alone. He is the definition of a chalk donkey. If he hits whatever I’ll take my loss. I could maybe be convinced to play him on FD but I can’t play a guy who sucks right now.
Chris Kirk: DK $7600/FD $10100
Kirk has been on a bit of heater lately with a string of made cuts, not having missed one since March at the Houston Open. Will be fairly popular at this price point. There’s a lot of good options in this range and I think that I will be avoiding him just based on the ownership. He’s cash viable as well. Does a lot of things well, not a ton of win equity though and won’t make my player pool but I don’t hate it by any means. More of a DK play than FD.
Joel Dahmen: DK $7400/FD $9400
Always a good value play. Seems to be doing everything well. Will be a cash lock again for me this week and I’ll have some shares in GPP as he’s gotta pop sometime here he keeps knocking on the door of a win. Viable in all formats and chalk I’m willing to eat.
Keith Mitchell: DK $7400/FD $9200
Keith Mitchell checks all the boxes for me this week and is someone I’m targeting on both sites in all formats.
He bombs it, is accurate enough (we’re looking for at least over 50%), hits a ton of greens, gains strokes off the tee, gains birdies on the field, and crushes par 5’s. He’s also top ten in adjusted birdies gained. This is the perfect course for him to breakthrough at. I’ll be well overweight on Keith this week.
Harold Varner III: DK $7100/$9000
Varner has had two good finishes in a row and is now the hottest thing in DFS Golf. He bombs it and is pretty good with his approach game. Those two finishes have been in subpar fields and while this is a little stronger I think he can still contend but you can’t play everyone and have to make a stand somewhere so I’ll be fading HV3 this week and here’s why…
He’s still Harold Varner III regardless of two good finishes. His projected course score reflects that as he is in the bottom 1/3 of the field in his score. Prior to his breakthrough the last few weeks he rarely contends (7th at the Players was a as sign of things to come) and he misses cuts regularly.
For a guy thats projecting over 20% I can easily fade him here and hope to gain an advantage on the field with some other plays.
Again there are a ton of solid plays here so here’s a couple:
Cam Champ – I’m pumped to see him in the field this week. He absolutely bombs it. Blows DJ out of the water in average driving distance. He also fills the cup with birdies. I’ll have a bit in GPP but expectations should be tempered regardless of if he’s been crushing it on the Web.com Tour as he has only made one cut in 6 events on the PGA Tour. Has top ten upside but can easily MC.
Jaime Lovemark – Checks a lot of boxes for me this week. Long off the tee, good form coming in. Good Par 4 and Par 5 scorer. Should find his way into a lot of my lineups.
Stewart Cink – Pretty long off the tee for an old man. Great form. Decent Course history. Just makes a lot of cuts and finishes top 30. Pretty good cash play in my opinion but not a lot of GPP winning upside.
JT Poston – Just hits a TON of greens in regulation which gives him opportunities to make birdies. Great OTT, Approach, and Putting. GPP winning upside. I love him this week.
Tyler Duncan – Slam Duncs as Taco calls him is another guy who makes a ton of birdies. Good play down here as he has been really hot lately.
Bronson Burgoon- Don’t forget about Bronson this week. He’s been on fire lately and he is EXCELLENT off the tee with a great approach game. If his putter stays hot he can contend here.
Fabian Gomez – Really pops in the RS because of his par 5 scoring. Worth a shot in GPP.
Samuel Ryder – Guy has a ton of game and should be a good fit here. Odds like him and is priced too low for where his game is right now.
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Below 7K:
Not a lot of chalk here but some interesting plays:
Cam Percy – Good Course History and good form coming in. I like him this week and he makes a good pair with DJ.
Blayne Barber – Has just been consistently solid the last few months. Makes cuts doesn’t really contend but gains a lot of strokes off the tee and should be able to have a lot of looks at birdies.
Norman Xiong – If he can’t make the cut here then all the hype about him was for not. Drives the ball well just can’t putt. Shouldn’t matter on bent grass and I think at 6300 he lets you do a lot of things with the rest of your lineup. Lots of upside.
Adam Svensson – Coming off the Web.com tour this Canadian makes a lot of birdies/eagles. Has a win this year on the Web and four top tens so he has the game to compete out here. Worth a GPP Punt if you’re MME’n.
Mackenzie Hughes – Canadian who has been playing MUCH better recently. 32nd here last year. If you need a more consistent option down here Hughes is your guy. Should make some birdies and finish top 40.
Austin Connelly – Some may remember him as the skinny kid who made a run at the Open Championship last year but this native Canadian has some game having played on the Euro tour all year. Had a string of poor results on links courses but coming home he should be able to compete. A big punt.
Weather:
Chance of rain pretty much everyday which should keep the course playing fairly soft which gives the bombers a slight edge but not so much that the short hitters are completely out of the picture. No real tee time draw, but I don’t mind making a couple all AM or all PM stacks just in case.
Final Thoughts:
As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in slack and make sure to join in and ask any questions. This is going to be a great week and I can’t wait to see some of those green screens and winning lineups!
Join us in Slack Chat this week and lets win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some huge GPP’s!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!
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