Hey, hey, hey…..it’s your DFS MLB buddy @Choppodong!! I am a coach and contributor inside DFS Army, where our entire goal is teaching you the fundamentals that will make you a better, more competitive player as quickly as possible.
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Remember, this article is designed to get you pointed in the right direction. It’s not a slate write-up and it’s not a player picks piece. I would rather get you started, then have you interact with us in our VIP slack forums as we banter picks and strategies back and forth. Learning MLB the right way is the fastest way to grow your skill level.
DFS Army is about teaching first. This is a video breakdown covering the important parts of today’s slates….you might even get some tips as I walk through my process. Even I don’t know what I’m going to say… (June 6 – NEW TOOL)
Back to Basics
It’s always a good idea to know which teams are scoring runs and which are giving them up. I will simply sort by the last 30 days and rank the teams. Here are your top 10 in terms of runs scored and your top 10 highest team ERAs (worst pitching).
This week, we try to focus on playing the top 10 offenses where it makes sense and attacking the highest 10 team ERAs. If any of them should directly matchup, we look to exploit it pretty hard. For example, today we get Rockies/Reds……..that’s good on both sides in every direction.
MLB DFS Pitching
We are always looking for the best combination of price, Vegas, strikeout upside, and matchup (ballparks, weather, etc). We will normally be looking to the top tier on Fanduel and will likely come off that a little so we can afford a decent SP2 on Draftkings. Generic rules like that always have exceptions. Be flexible. KScore is the pitcher’s strikeout potential with the opposing team’s vulnerability to striking out. The DFSA Grade is proprietary to our VIPs but will give you guys something to track in terms of a catch-all safety rating.
Main Slate Pitching Roundup
Split slate today. Early has only 3 games on Fanduel, but 5 on Draftkings. Main has 10 games on Fanduel and should have a beautiful 5 game Express tonight. Weather appears to be a non-factor outside of chilly conditions in the northeast and on the west coast. We have some heavy favorites taking the mound today, so things should be pretty fun.
Ohtani – I’m not calling him lead dog. I’m pointing something out with him……….. KC’s strikeout percentage. It’s a 18%ish number, which is pretty low and squashes Ohtani’s upside to a degree. Ohtani carries a 31.3% number on his own and that is why he’s high on the chart. KC is serving to bring his overall matchup back to earth a little. I don’t mind picking on KC bats, but we need to temper expectations on Ohtani blowing away 10 of them tonight. It’s not all that likely.
Eduardo Rodgriguez falls into a similar boat. His K% isn’t as high, obviously, but DET’s K% is very low this year as a team at 17%. ERod might have the heavy Vegas favorite tag at -220, but that has more to do with BOS bats facing DET pitching than ERod’s gpp winning upside. He’s ok for cash maybe, but I’m not even real fond of that move tonight with some other pitchers on the mounds.
Aaron Nola – This might be most people’s lead dog, but I’m still not completely sold due to price. $9600 is a tall order for only a 468 KScore and the Cubs are due to heat up this year at about any time. Nola is great, but he’s the underdog here and I don’t think he’s too safe tonight. I love him for some GPPs, but not for cash games.
Lance McCullers might actually be the guy people run to now that I got past those first three. If we don’t have a lot of high KScores on the night, the 456 from McCullers is what we will be working with. The -190 from Vegas is solid and outside of Keuchel, the HOU staff is putting up a great year. At under 9k, maybe he’s the chalk pitcher this evening?
Jack Flaherty is going to be hard for me to resist as a STL homer. I like the strikeout upside, I love picking on MIA, his Vegas -195 is sexy as a midwest gal in a sundress, and that price tag of $7800? Yes please. I’m going to be overweight on him tonight, but I’m not going to be all in. He doesn’t go deep into games yet, so the QS is in question. There is talk in STL of a tandem start, so with young, inefficient pitchers and high pitch counts, the win might even be in question. But for $7800, 5 IP and 7Ks with upside to more is just fine with me. I’ll likely risk it and play with stacking combos in hopes to catch some lucky bats tonight. For the record, the smart money is likely on McCullers………..I’m being somewhat intentionally stupid here, but there is a lot of upside to this play, so I can justify it to myself.
Want more pitching breakdowns? See MDell’s article our members are raving about – Painting the Black
MLB Pitching to Exploit
I’m not going into much detail here. Just rest assured if our DFSA Grades like the aces with high marks, they are going to hate the scrubs with low marks. For one, Alex Cobb is currently sporting a 13.33ish ERA. Now, it won’t stay that way for long, but get on these guys while they are struggling. That’s what DFS is all about. In parentheses are the bats you should be stacking, especially when it’s also a high-powered offense….
MAIN
Santiago (@MIN)
Chen (@STL)
Romano (COL)
Odorizzi (CWS)
Colon (OAK)
Kennedy (@LAA)
How about some more winning?! I change these screenshots like I change mistresses. Seriously, why are you just taking the free content? Why aren’t you in here receiving the tools, optimizer, and coaching? These guys are, and these guys are dominating the competition.
DFS MLB Bats and Stack Considerations
I focus on attacking the pitchers above, and I love it when I see Vegas supporting the cause or a high powered offense matching up with these attackable pitchers. I will then focus on the better bats within the offense and key in on our batters grading out over 75 in our Research Station. Bear in mind, I’m listing day-to-day and 10day DL guys, too. Your job is to follow the news, or plug into our Slack Channels and get the details as our slates lock for the day.
Main Offenses to Stack
LAA – Trout, Valbuena, Kinsler, Simmons
OAK – Olson, Davis
MIN – Kepler, Adrianza, Rosario
NYY – Judge, Andujar, Gardner, Torres
TEX – Gallo, Beltre, Chirinos, Choo, Mazara
HOU – Altuve, Gattis
TOR – Hernandez, Smoak, Travis, Morales
COL – Blackmon, Arenado, Gonzalez, Iannetta, Wolters
Huge list of playables today. Should be a wide open slate.
For more on DFS Stacking, see CeeGee’s article – MLB DFS Top Stacks
#DongCall Time!
This section takes on a change. I will simply leave it at my #200on200 guys for the foreseeable future. Posting pictures on the web is becoming more trouble than it’s worth, and it’s not like many people comment out on Twitter anyway. That’s a shame because it was fun.
#200on200 – #DongCall worthy
MAIN – Judge, Trout, Bader, Munoz, Stanton, Dozier, Torres, Sanchez, Jose Martinez, Andujar, Bird, Sano, Gregorius, Abreu
Very short list for such a big slate.
Pay attention to the other DFS Army articles like Dong Detector for deeper dives into which bats are in the best spots. Hopefully, your research is started for today. If it feels like it’s pointing in a funky direction, no worries…….I feel just like you right now. Let’s keep our eyes peeled for directions the industry is pointing and re-evaluate as the day goes on. We can zig when they zag or hide in the herd. The choice is ours, and we will be discussing it in our Slack Forums all day long. Join us!
Final MLB DFS Thoughts
For MLB cash games, keep the stacking to a minimum. You can’t afford to grab stack Rockies in Coors and have them fall flat, which they occasionally do. ISO is a great stat to look at with wOBA for hitter-friendly parks. Remember to head over to DFSARMY.com, your one-stop-shop for stats, player recommendations, coaching, winning lineups discussion, and everything DFS related. Use code CHOP to trigger a 10% discount every month as long as you remain a member regardless of any future price increases. You are grandfathered in at your rate permanently!!
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