Welcome to another night of fights. This time it’s on a Friday night. We have 13 fights and a few debuting fighters. The research will be key to some of these fights. Not to worry we got you covered with the breakdowns here. Be sure you listen to our star-studded podcast. It’s up and great listening for your morning commute to work. Along with that, we have our Research Station and Domination Station ready to assist you as well. With this being a Friday night card be sure you get your lineups in before lock. Myself and our other great MMA minds will do our best to help you out in our Slack Chat. Let’s get down to business.
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Torres (-155) 8.7k vs Brooks (+145) 7.5k
Torres is making his UFC debut here. Don’t let that scare you off him though. This is a legit fighter. He is a solid striker and has big power. He has a submission game and good cardio as well. Brooks is an aggressive fighter that is constantly looking to land takedowns (averages 6 TD’s per fight). Vegas likes this fight to go into the later rounds. For that reason, Brooks makes for a solid cash play. Even in a loss, we should expect him to at least land several TD’s. This, in turn, makes me like Torres in tournaments. I am not worried about him gassing and think with so many seeing value in Brooks it will cause Torres to go overlooked. In short, Brooks is in play in all formats (I prefer him in cash). Torres is a solid GPP play.
Wood (-255) 9.2k vs Eduardo (+235) 7k
Wood is another fighter making his UFC debut. He is a solid striker. He will look to utilize his kicks and combinations. He also has quick hands and decent power. Eduardo is a UFC veteran. He has good strikes and power. This is a GPP only fight for me. My preferred play is Eduardo mainly because we need to find dogs somewhere. Wood is someone I will have limited exposure to. I think there are other fighters around him that will likely score better.
Aguilar (-110) 8.3k vs Esquibel (+100) 7.9k
Honestly, this is a fight that should be faded. I can see this being a low scoring fight from both fighters. If I had to choose I would just take the cheaper and younger fighter in Esquibel. I personally will have 0 exposure to this fight.
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Green (-295) 9k vs Tibau (+265) 7.2k
Green is an ok striker and is a good grappler. Tibau is a UFC veteran. Many will say his chin is shot. I am not entirely sold on that. Plus, even if he is Green isn’t known for having knockout power. If Tibau can show us even a glimpse of the fighter he used to be, he could get his ground game going. I am not convinced he can. I will say I am more willing to take shares of him in tournaments more than Green. Even in a decision win, I don’t think Green will reach value. Tibau is puntable in cash and GPP’s. Overall not a fight I will have a huge amount of ownership in. Most likely I will have exposure to both.
Muhammad (-380) 9.4k vs Rencountre (+340) 6.8k
Muhammad is solid everywhere. He is a good striker (4.6 Significant Strikes per minute) and has solid TD’s (2.38 TD’s per fight). Rencountre is taking this fight on short notice. He is competent overall. Nothing stands out about him. Muhammad is playable in all formats. He is 1 of the biggest favorites on the card and has a solid floor. Rencountre would only be someone I would play in a funky GPP lineup. I better strategy would be to fade this fight in some tournament lineups and move up to Gillespie (who I will break down later).
David Teymur (-290) 9.1k vs Lentz (+260) 7.1k
1st of be sure you pay attention to which Teymur you are selecting when entering your lineups. Both brothers are on this card. David is a good striker and has good output (4.81 SS’s). Lentz is a solid wrestler (3.68 TD’s). Vegas is thinking this fight will most likely go to decision. There is 2 ways this fight likely plays out. 1. Teymur is able to stuff the takedowns and look to get his stand up game going. 2. Lentz is able to get some TD’s and from there get his wrestling game going. Either scenario is possible. With Teymur being 9.1k he becomes a tournament play only. Lentz on the other I feel can be used as a punt in all formats. You don’t need to force Lentz in your lineup build.
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Eubanks (-185) 8.4k vs Murphy (+170) 7.8k
Eubanks is decent overall. Murphy will be the more experienced fighter and is tough. She has shown in the past to be hittable. For the most part, I am fading this fight. Eubanks intrigues me in tournaments some.
Alvey (-140) 8.5k vs Villante (+120) 7.7k
Alvey is a notorious counter puncher. He lands at a very low volume. Villante has good kicks as well as power. He does often tend to tire quickly. Another fight you can fade if you want. The only way Alvey reaches or exceeds value is via knockout. If you want to take a stab with him that’s fine. I will not be.
Arce (-165) 8.8k vs Daniel Teymur (+155) 7.4k
Arce will have a size advantage and is a solid striker. Daniel has a variety of ways he can hurt you. He has quick hands and solid power. I really like the idea of targeting both in tournaments. My preferred side is Teymur. He also makes for a solid cash game punt.
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Ellenberger (-165) 8.6k vs Saunders (+155) 7.6k
Both fighters have proven to have weak chins. Honestly, either fighter could win. If I had to choose I would with Ellenberger. He may land at a bit lower of a rate but, he has the ability to land TD’s and score that way.
Harris (-255) 9.3k vs Spitz (+235) 6.9k
Harris is very athletic and a dangerous strike. Spitz is good overall. He is a solid striker and has the ability to get TD’s. In general, this is a fight to target a good amount in tournaments. I will have a good amount of both. Spitz makes for a great value play in all formats. Using him gives you the ability to get in more higher priced favorites you may like.
Gillespie (-380) 9.5k vs Pichel (+340) 6.7k
Gillespie is a relentless wrestler (5.49 TD’s). If that wasn’t enough he has also shown to be a good striker as well. Pichel has solid kicks and decent power. I am just locking Gillespie in my cash lineup. Along with that, I will have a good amount of him in tournaments. He has only scored less than 100 pts 1 time and it was 99.5 pts. His ceiling is ridiculous.
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Moraes (-110) 8k vs Rivera (+100) 8.2k
First off I am stacking this in cash and moving on…..
If you want my thoughts on this in tournaments listen to our VIP Pod. We give a breakdown of this fight and the rest of the fights as well.
Remember to try out the Domination Station for MMA for this card and join us in the Slack Chat! Good Luck DFS Army!
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