Welcome to this weeks Chalk Donkey article for DFS Golf. It’s US Open Week! The year’s second major takes place at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club.
My name is Josh Thomas, and I’ll be writing the Chalk Donkey article for VIP’s every week here at DFS Army looking at who the chalk plays are in DFS Golf and who you can pivot to. We’ll look at if you need to eat the chalk especially in cash games, and take a deep dive into some pivots using our Research Station and the Domination Station.
It’s time for the second major of the year! The US Open takes place this week at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club out on Long Island in New York. The course has hosted four previous US Open’s, 1896, 1986, 1995, and most notably 2004. In the 2004 edition, they lost the course, specifically the greens, due to wind and heat. The greens were so hard that caddie’s were able to drop a ball on the green and it would bounce up over their head. Players were unable to hold greens and had plenty of four or five putts. I don’t imagine we see that sort of thing happen again this year, but this course is no doubt going to be a beast and a difficult test for the players.
Measuring at 7,440 yards and playing as a par 70 this will no doubt be a stout test of golf. Only two par 5’s and only one with real eagle opportunities will keep the scoring low. Par 4 scoring will be the key here, with 7 par 4’s falling into the “long” range on our RS. There are 3 shorter par 3’s, and one that is almost as long as a par 4 at your local municipal course measuring in at 252 yards. The greens are poa annua mixed with bentgrass, something we rarely see on the east coast, which may be a benefit to guys we see play well on the west. The fairways have been widened a bit since 2004, but landing zones have been tightened, looking to punish bombers. Anything off the fairway brings bogey or worse into play. The greens aren’t small, but with the length of the rough, the wind, and the us open conditions of the green they will be tough enough to hold from the fairway, let alone from long rough.
The field is 156 this week, yet with half coming from sectional qualifiers, we really only have 70ish players that can contend. The cut will be top 60 and ties. As usual with any us open, there will be carnage, and often times a chalky player will blow up and miss the cut (see 30% owned Dustin Johnson at Erin Hills last year) Last year the the 6/6 percentage in the Milly Maker was 3%. While I don’t think it’ll be that low again, its possible, and its very possible that 4/6 will be able to cash in double ups and 50/50’s.
There are a variety of contests this week and some of the GPP’s are very top heavy. It’s important to understand the payout structure of the contests you are entering. If you the payouts are top heavy you want to make a riskier lineup and stay away from safety. I hate the payout structure of the Millionaire Maker, but I understand the draw and if you are going to enter I would enter trying to win the thing rather than just Min. Cash. If you have questions, shoot me a DM in Slack.
Ownership is going to be massively important this week and finding the chalk donkeys will be huge. I don’t believe you need to avoid chalk just for the sake of fading the chalk, but some of the chalk is a bad play, and thats what we call a ‘chalk donkey’, so let’s find out who that will be this week!
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First let’s breakdown what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on for the US Open.
Value Tab:
The first thing I look for when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week. This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab looks at Vegas odds and our projections, versus the salary FanDuel or DraftKings have assigned to that player.
This week we project Emiliano Grillo as our best value and we have a good mix of salaries here. Honestly, you could build a pretty solid lineup from any mix of these 8 guys.
Here’s the issue with the value tab though, we think their a value, but so does everyone else. Of these 8 players, I think 3 will be among the highest owned on the entire board (Justin Rose, Tony Finau, and Paul Casey). All three are good plays, but it might be smart to fade one or two in your player pool to help you gain an advantage on the field if they miss the cut.
Projected Course Score:
Projected Course Score is a stat that is unique to us here at DFS Army. It takes the average fantasy points scored on each type of hole on the course, and then adds them up to give you the best “course fit” players. We’ve had some real good success the last few weeks with this stat. Dustin Johnson topped the list and won, while Bryson Dechambeau was 3rd the previous week and one. I use this stat to really start to build my player pool.
I included the FP/Hole in this screenshot as that is important, and while not something I’m going to specifically look for this week, it will be a stat I use as a tie breaker between players.
Phil Mickelson comes in with the best projected course score, followed by Justin Thomas, both players I love this week. Chesson Hadley shows up again and is an intriguging play this week as well.
Fantasy Points/Long Par 4:
With 7 of the holes on this course falling into this category, how players score on Long Par 4’s is going to be essential to building a winning lineup.
Henrik Stenson tops the list here which is not surprising as he has one of the best projected course scores as well. The 3 big R’s: Rose, Rahm, and Rory all make the list two and make great plays. I’d like to say Scott Piercy was going to make my player pool this week, but after his awful performance putting, approach, and off the tee last week, (basically his entire game) and subsequent WD, I won’t be touching him in any lineups.
Other key stats to consider this week, that I’ll get into in my breakdown of the chalk donkeys:
Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy, SG: OTT, Double Bogey or Worse %, and as always SG: Approach.
Who are this week’s Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
Above 10K:
Dustin Johnson: DK $11700/FD $12400
Well, as fun as it was to watch DJ tear up the field last week at the FedEx St. Jude Classic, it probably increased his ownership by about 5% points. He’s the highest priced player on both sites and its not often that we see this spot go highly owned but with the premium put on length, accuracy, and approach here this week, DJ will be sure to garner 25% ownership in most contests, making him in my eyes a ‘Chalk Donkey’. But does that mean we can’t play him?
Boy…that’s sexy. So much green. The only thing that gives me pause is that Driving Accuracy % but even with it under 60% he doesn’t make a lot of big numbers. Off the tee, approach, adjusted field percentage, everything is top notch. That adjusted field percentage means that he beats 87% of this field on average.
DJ’s long term form shows that he finishes in the top 5 of a tournament 34% of the time. Thats insane. Top 10, almost 50% of the time. You can fade DJ, but do it at your own peril.
It makes sense to fade him from a game theory perspective if you are only playing one lineup. At 25-30% ownership, if he misses the cut you are in great shape. But remember it’s the US Open and getting guys through to the weekend is always a challenge. In Single Entry I’ll be mostly fading him, but in GPP I’ll be overweight in most of my MME.
So where do we go from DJ? Let’s look at the rest of this salary range. To do it unbiased though, I took their names off and gave them numbers instead.
Golfer #4 has the best adjusted field average and made cut%, but struggles with double bogey %, and his approach game is the worst of this group over the season, and the last 5 events.
Golfer #1 has the worst stat line here, though he does hit it farther than all of the others. His approach game at his last event was also pretty poor, but seems fairly consistent in Off the Tee stats.
Golfer’s 2 and 3 are pretty similar, though #2’s off the tee stats were not good last time out, and 3 has a bit better greens in reg%. #5 is solid all around, though is the shortest of the bunch.
At this point, If I had to pick one I’m probably going with Golfer #3 and hoping his OTT game comes back this week. But lets take a look at how they score on the types of holes we have here at Shinnecock Hills.
Golfer #2 has the best projected course score by a mile, and also crushes Fantasy Points/Hole. Golfer #3 is the best of the bunch in Long Par 4’s, followed by 3, 2, 4, and 5.
Going off this, if I had to rank them in order it would be 2, 3, 4, 1, and then 5. So who are they?
#1 Rory McIlroy
#2 Justin Thomas
#3 Jordan Spieth
#4 Jason Day
#5 Rickie Fowler
If I had just looked at this range with names, there’s not a doubt in my mind that Spieth would have been ranked 5th, yet I have him second. He can’t putt to save his life (though he did gain strokes last event out with the putter) It’s important to look at the stats sometimes without name bias as it can get you on a play that you otherwise wouldn’t have been. Spieth is a huge gamble, but could pay off huge. His ownership will most likely be in the 10% range, and for a player of his caliber, I can justify being overweight a bit on him in GPP.
I love Justin Thomas, and he will be owned around 20%, but I might be making a 40% stand on him. He’s got a great course score, and has been the most consistent player on tour this year.
9K:
As always DK tries to keep the above 10K range to 5 or 6 players, and at events like this that leaves some extremely good plays in the high end 9K Range. While its nice of them to give us some salary relief, that often means they become the mega chalk.
Justin Rose: DK $9900/FD $12200
My assumption is that Justin Rose will be the highest owned player this week. He’s got a sexy game log, people know him, and he’s cheap compared to the rest of the top end guys. He’s a great play this week and there really are no concerns for me with this game. He’s hitting the ball so tight to the hole his putter doesn’t need to be great, though its been better this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rose up on top of the leaderboard at some point this week.
He’s going to be massively owned, but I think you should be playing him even if you’re underweight. Single Entry could be a fade for me, but I really like pairing him with Jon Rahm for lineups. I’m also going to be starting any and all cash games I play with Rose.
Brooks Koepka: DK $9000/FD $11500
I was on the fade Brooks Koepka train last week and I’m going to stay on it this week. Brooks will push 20% ownership as the defending champ at a price that is very enticing.
Here’s my concerns with Brooks. That adjusted field rank is NOT good. His driving accuracy is poor, and that double bogey or worse % is one of the worst in the field. Add on to that that I don’t personally think he’s 100% back from the wrist injury even if it says he is. If he finds himself in the rough and tries to hack one out he could reinjure it. There is better plays in this range. I’m not taking on the risk of Brooks, especially with him being fairly chalky.
This range is super small this week with only four players, but I really like Jon Rahm this week. He has one of the best projected course scores and adjusted field ranks in the field. Tiger Woods is also intriguing and here is why.
That big red number is not going to stay like that. Tiger will not lose -1.92 strokes putting this week unless the greens are like they were in 2004. Here’s the impressive part, he lost that many strokes putting and finished 23rd in one of the strongest fields of the year at the Memorial. In the Milly Maker he will push 20% on name recognition so I would avoid him there but you can mash him in other contests, especially single entry as he will likely go under owned.
8K:
There are three chalk donkeys in this range this week and they will all most likely be higher than 20% owned.
Branden Grace: DK $8400/FD $10000
Grace is getting a lot of love this week, and rightfully so as he often shows up in majors and competes, but outside of his history in major events, and a few low scores on the European tour he really hasn’t done much stateside. Looking at his stat line he does a lot of things OK and nothing really outstanding.
As you can see above, he actually has the worst projected course score of anyone in the entire 8k Range, including the lowest Fantasy Points/Long par 4’s of which, if you remember there are 7 on this course alone.
Everyone, and I mean everyone is going to be chasing Grace this week and hoping we see a 62 like last years British Open, but I for one will be fading him every where and hoping for a wonky putter and a MC.
Tommy Fleetwood: DK $8100/FD $10400
It pains me to think that Tommy will be a chalk play, but DK is forcing everyone’s hand with this pricing. He’s a world class links player and grinder and at this price tag I would be all in if he wasn’t going to be 25% owned. He could make a late week charge, especially if it gets windy, as the chalk player of the field.
Looking up at the graphic a few paragraphs up, the RS doesn’t actually like him that much. Good par 3 and par 5 scorer, but with not many of those he needs to score on Par 4’s and historically hasn’t done very well on that.
Tommy’s an excellent driver of the golf ball, but the more I look the more I can get on board with a Fleetwood fade. He’s played twice since the players where a fantastic Sunday vaulted him into the top ten, both finishes in the 20’s. I will be playing Tommy in cash but letting everyone else chase last year’s performance in the US Open in GPP and relying on the strength of our Projected Course Score stat.
Paul Casey: DK $8000/FD $10500
This is just a ridiculous price on Paul Casey. It’s way too low. Maybe they know something we don’t. Maybe his WD last week was a major injury that he’s not letting on about. I don’t know. But when you can get this caliber of player here, you jump on it. He will be chalk. So you’ll have to differentiate else where. If you want to fade I can get on board with that as he has a mediocre history at USGA event, never really contending. Or fade because of his possible injury scenario, but I’ll have a healthy chunk of PC.
Who are the other options here? As usual Henrik Stenson is in a smash spot. Here’s all you need to know about Hank.
Check out that Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation. Those are both the best in the field. Lock him in. GPP/Cash/everything. If he putts anywhere near to what he can we could see him dueling with someone down the stretch a la him and Phil when he won the Open Championship.
Bubba Watson is a sneaky GPP play here and so is Adam Scott both will be underowned and part of my player pool.
7K:
Tony Finau: DK $7500/FD $10200
The only real chalk donkey I can see down here is Tony Finau who finds himself as a chalk donkey more often than not as the DFS community loves him.
Oofta that Driving Accuracy% and for a guy that is considered an ‘elite’ driver of the golf ball those sure aren’t very good Off the Tee stats. Finau putted so poorly last week at the FedEx St. Jude en route to a MC that I’m really concerned about him heading into this week. I’ve seen some videos and oh boy are those greens rolling fast.
I’ll have very little if any Finau this week. He’ll push 20% ownership and if I have any it’ll be due to a draw bias based on winds.
This range is huge and with the soft pricing we have a lot of great plays in this range. I’ll breakdown a few good plays from our RS that should come in underowned.
Don’t overthink it. Lock Matt Kuchar in. All he does is finish in the top 30 here. Sure he’ll be chalk but he’s probably the guy I feel most comfortable with making the cut. Thats 8 straight years of US Open cuts made for him. He’s a cash lock and I’ll have around 30% of him in GPP.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello and Emiliano Grillo both have odds that don’t match their prices. I’m all in on both. They’ve both been playing well and while their projected course scores aren’t solid, not many are playing better tee to green than them.
Chesson Hadley is another guy that rates out really well in the RS. He’s got one of the best projected course scores in this range by a mile and his approach game is one of the best on tour. For a tall guy that weighs about 120 pounds he hits the ball almost 300 yards on average off the tee so I have no worries there. Concerning that he’s never played in a US Open but his recent form is second to none.
Under 7K:
As usual there doesn’t appear to be a lot of chalky plays down here but there are some that I really like.
Right off the top I love Steve Stricker this week. He’s one of the best value plays on the sheet and his US Open history is fantastic. We actually project him to have 4 more fantasy points than anyone else under $7000 this week on DK. Some may worry that might not hit it far enough, but he’s got that old man strength and still pumps it out there 290 on which is plenty for this course. He’s been so solid this year that I think he is cash game viable as well.
My favorite play, maybe in the entire field under 8K is Charles Howell III. No player has been more consistent in this range than CH3.
Not only is his form tremendous, but his price to odds ratio is way off and he presents a huge value for us down here. His made cut % makes him cash viable, and while he hasn’t played in a US open in over 6 years, I have no concerns that he will be overwhelmed as he is a vet. When you think of CH3 you don’t think bomber, but his driving distance of 299 is above average on tour and last week at the FedEx St. Jude he actually was second behind DJ in Driving Distance for the week and was in front of well known bomber, Trey Mullinax! I love CH3 this week and will probably be massively overweight compared to the field.
Thorbjorn Olsesen is intriguing to me coming off a win on the euro tour. We don’t have a lot of data but he has done well in the US in the past and her crushes the ball. His odds to win are about 150 points better than his nearest competitor in salary which shows he’s a great value play.
Sungjae Im is leading the Web.com Tour Money List and is one of the hottest up and coming players. He crushed at his sectional and really could be one to make a run up the board here as we often see at US opens in recent memory.
One of my favorite plays though down here, and believe me this is an absolute punt, but a guy that Taco and talked about on the podcast is Dean Burmester. He’s min priced but is the 110th ranked player in the world, and was high enough at one point that he actually played in the WGC-Mexico this year where he finished 30th. He’s on a string of good form recently and with a T12 at the BMW PGA in a solid field we know he can play with the big boys. He also absolutely hammers the ball.
One more guy who pounds the ball that I like this week (and isn’t a bad wind player as an aussie) is Ryan Fox. The young Australian is just behind Burmester in OWGR at 124 but has been playing full time on the European tour and hasn’t missed a cut since the Open De Espana a few months ago.
All of these guys outside of Stricker and Charles Howell III are punts and should only be used sparingly in GPP, but they may be one to help you take down a milly maker!
Final Thoughts:
As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in slack and make sure to join in and ask any questions.
The weather wind are going to be a huge factor this week, so make sure to follow along with us in Slack Chat and we will get you set with all the right info.
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Join us in Slack Chat this week and lets win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some huge GPP’s! We are also planning on having a discord Wednesday night so stay tuned!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!
