Welcome to this weeks Chalk Donkey article for DFS PGA Golf. It’s US Open Hangover week as the tour heads to the Traveler’s Championship at TPC River Highlands.
My name is Josh Thomas, and I’ll be writing the Chalk Donkey article for VIP’s every week here at DFS Army looking at who the chalk plays are in DFS Golf and who you can pivot to. We’ll look at if you need to eat the chalk especially in cash games, and take a deep dive into some pivots using our Research Station and the Domination Station.
Wow, what a US Open! The wind blew, Phil ran after a putt and hit a ball while it was moving, and Brooks held everyone off on Sunday to take down his second US Open in a row! While some fans might have been disappointed with the scoring and the crazy conditions on Saturday, I personally love watching some of these guys struggle and it was highly entertaining as you just didn’t know what would happen next. Unfortunately the gong show that was Saturday wasn’t so beneficial to my pocket book, my lineups made a charge Sunday to get me back to +EV.
This week the course heads to Cromwell, Connecticut for the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands. TPC River Highlands is a Pete Dye design that has hosted a tour event since 1984 in the tournaments previous iterations as the Buick Championship and Greater Hartford Open. The Pete Dye redesign took place in 1984 and was later tweaked with input from Roger Maltbie and Bobby Weed (great golf name) in 1989.
The course has a mixture of bent grass and poa greens and fairways and is a 6841 yard par 70. As a par 70, there are only two par 5’s, so we only saw 24 eagles here last year (which is actually quite a few considering.) With 12 par 4’s and 8 measuring between 400-450 yards, par 4 scoring will be a premium. There is a good mix of easy and tough holes here. Jim Furyk shot a 58 here a few years ago (and didn’t win) and it really depends on how they set it up. The easiest hole is the par 5 6th, while the toughest is the par 4 4th. All three finishing holes played over par last year, which will make Friday fun to watch with the guys wrapping up their rounds on the back.
Last years tournament was won by Jordan Spieth with a chip in on a playoff hole over Daniel Berger, that cost me a butt ton of money. Other notable top finishers that are back in the field this year are Charley Hoffman, Paul Casey, Patrick Reed, Keegan Bradley, and CT Pan.
As always ownership will be important and finding the chalk donkeys will be huge. I don’t believe you need to avoid chalk just for the sake of fading the chalk, but some of the chalk is a bad play, and thats what we call a ‘chalk donkey’, so let’s find out who that will be this week!
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First let’s breakdown what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Key Stats this Week:
In this section, I’ll cover what I feel are some of the key stats this week. We get lots of questions in slack about what to look for in the RS and here are some of the things that I’ll be focusing on this week for the Travelers Championship
Value Tab:
The first thing I look at every week when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week. This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box. The value tab looks at Vegas odds and our projections, versus the salary FanDuel or DraftKings have assigned to that player.
This week we again have Emiliano Grillo as our best value on Draftkings as they still can’t figure out how to price him. On FanDuel he comes in at 41st in value though. I think you can lock him in in cash on DK, and he makes a good game theory play for FD where will garner much lower ownership. I have some concerns with him but we will get there later. Others that pop here are the “better” Rory, who didn’t play last week and should be fresh. As well as Brendan Steele and Webb Simpson who both have fantastic course history.
Here’s the issue with the value tab though, we think their a value, but so does everyone else. All are good plays, but it might be smart to fade one or two in your player pool to help you gain an advantage on the field if they miss the cut.
Projected Course Score:
Projected Course Score is a stat that is unique to us here at DFS Army. It takes the average fantasy points scored on each type of hole on the course, and then adds them up to give you the best “course fit” players. We’ve had some real good success the last few weeks with this stat. Dustin Johnson topped the list and won at FedEx St. Jude, while Bryson Dechambeau was 3rd the previous week and one. I use this stat to really start to build my player pool.
Well lookie here, 5 guys that I LOVE this week. JT tops the list as this is a great course fit for him. I worry a bit about him coming from the US Open though (last year he missed the cut, granted he was in contention there last year) Like we said earlier, Webb has great course history and so does Brian Harman. Patrick Cantlay shot a 60 here as an amateur too. I’m going to keep sticking with Projected Course Score as the key to building my player pool for the week.
I included the FP/Hole in this screenshot as that is important, and while not something I’m going to specifically look for this week, it will be a stat I use as a tie breaker between players.
Fantasy Points/Medium Par 4:
There are 8 holes that fall into this category this week, so needless to say its going to be hugely important.
We’re starting to see players show up at the top of these lists which makes me very confident in playing them this week. Cantlay leads the field in Medium Par 4 scoring and the only new player here is Andrew Landry who at his price looks to be a good value this week.
Greens in Regulation Gained/Round:
This is a brand new stat that Taco threw into the RS this week and the timing couldn’t be better as Greens in Regulation play a huge role in success at this tournament.
Its always a good confirmation for me that a stat is important at a certain course, when the guys who have had success at that course lead the field in it. Ryan Moore, Jordan Spieth, Keegan Bradley, CT Pan, Brian Harman, and Webb Simpson all have at least one top ten here.
Other key stats to consider this week, that I’ll get into in my breakdown of the chalk donkeys:
Driving Distance, SG: OTT, Adjusted Field Rank, and as always SG: Approach. I’ll specifically look at any changes in the Strokes gained categories in the last 5 as oppposed to the season for players.
Who are this week’s Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
Above 10K:
There doesn’t appear to be one guy that looks like they will garner all the ownership. There are 5 players up here as usual with Justin Thomas, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, and coming off another great performance at a major Patrick Reed. Of the 5 my guess is ownership will end up going:
- Justin Thomas
- Brooks Koepka (I still think he might WD so be on the lookout)
- Patrick Reed
- Jordan Spieth
- Rory McIlroy
These guys are here for a reason and they are all good plays, but lets break down some of the key stats from the RS and see if we can find a favorite here.
We project JT to have the most points this week, followed by Brooks and Justin. Recent form there hasn’t really been anyone steadier than JT and Brooks. Rory has popped a few times, but not has also missed a few cuts in good spots. Everyone but Rory has a top ten here at some point in their careers, but I’ll give Rory a pass as he has only played here once.
Another new stat we added this week is Avg. Fantasy Points Gained/Event. This looks at how many more Fantasy Points a player gains over the field on average and is something I like a little better than FP/Hole as a players FP/Hole stats can be hurt by playing tough courses (like last week) The top two here are JT and Jordan.
Avg. GIR gained, Spieth is far and away better than the rest of them, as well as Driving Accuracy.
Right now, I’m leaning towards Spieth and Justin and maybe Rory as a GPP pivot play but lets look at Fantasy Points on Medium Par 4’s before making any final decisions.
This confirms it for me. I love Justin Thomas this week. I know he has a MC here last year but that can be attributed to the US Open Hangover after contending there. I really think Brooks probably suffers from the same thing if he doesn’t WD and I’ll have very little of him if any (unless he is projected to be super low owned, check with us in slack). Jordan Spieth is my second favorite play up here. He’s going to pop, and guess what? He gained strokes PUTTING last week! Hallelujah.
I’ll have a small amount of Patrick Reed and though I kinda like Rory you have to make a stand somewhere and despite a top twenty finish here last year, it just doesn’t appear to be a good course fit for him.
9K:
Whoa, this range is STACKED this week. Usually we see this range being pretty small with some easy fades, but not here.
We have six top notch players in this range, all with 35-1 or better odds to win and excellent course history (except for maybe Jason Day, but more on that later) and we have two players that are going to lead the way in ownership, one that almost always does, and another because he is priced so low and has fantastic course history.
Paul Casey: DK $9600/FD $11200
Paul Casey might end up being the highest owned player overall this week. He’s played here three times and finished in the top twenty each time out. He’s also coming off a solid performance at the US Open. Casey has the best adjusted field rank score in the field with an 82% meaning he beats 82% of the field on average.
Casey is almost always solid play, but if you are looking for reason to fade him and his massive ownership this week it would be his mediocre par 4 scoring compared to the rest of this range.
Remember there are 8 medium length par 4’s at TPC River Highlands and Casey scores by FAR the worst in this range on those length holes. That’s what ultimately hurts his Projected Course. He has obviously overcome that disadvantage here with 3 top 20 finishes in the last three trips around, but it shows that he is a possible candidate for a missed cut if he is not at his best.
I think it makes sense from a game theory standpoint to be underweight on Paul Casey this week. There are tons of great pivots in this range and I’ll be loading up on them.
Ryan Moore: DK $9000/FD $9800
Currently projected to be the highest owned player in the field, Ryan Moore is the second chalk donkey we will look at. Didn’t play here last year, but since 2010 he has two top 5’s, a top ten, two top twenties, and a top 50. He also comes in with pretty good form with a 13th place finish at the Memorial and should be well rested mentally and physically after not playing the US Open last week.
Lots of green when you look at Moore’s stat line. If there is one area of concern it would be his putting which has been fairly atrocious this year. Looking at how guys have got it done in the past here though its either through great approach/GIR game, or excellent putting and very rarely do players do both. So its not a huge concern for me.
Moore has one of the best Avg. GIR Gained and Projected Course Scores this week. While he will be highly owned because of the price tag attached, I don’t think I can get off Moore this week, especially in cash, as I view him as a Cash game lock.
Remember, Chalk isn’t necessarily a bad thing. A good play is a good play and there are plenty of options to differentiate else where in your roster construction.
Outside of Moore, you really can’t go wrong in this price range as they are all good plays. I personally will be loading up on Marc Leishman and Webb Simpson. Two players coming in with that combination of good form and great course history. Neither are great OTT, but make up for it in approach and around the green. Leishman putted poorly last week but who didn’t? (Webb Simpson didn’t, another reason to load up on him)
Bryson DeChambeau is interesting as he is finally finding himself in this range every week as he continues to play solid golf. I’ll have some shares and you could probably even talk me into him in cash.
I would be remiss to not mention Jason Day as he is one of the best golfers in the world and priced under 10k for the first time in ages. He could win this week, or he could MC, both probably have about the same odds of happening. He’s really a boom or bust candidate. I assumed he would be massively owned going into this week but he hasn’t generated the buzz I thought he would. His game is just not in great shape right now, and he doesn’t really look to be a good course fit as he struggles to hit greens in regulation. He can scramble with the best of them, but at his price tag, I’m not going to have many shares. I’m not advocating for a full fade, but he’s just not someone I’m going to be keying on this week.
8K:
Now we get into the heart of the chalk donkeys this week and we start at the very top of the price range.
Daniel Berger: DK $8900/FD $11100
I’m looking for a US Open Hangover here. After finding himself in the final pairing for the US Open after a fantastic round three I’m expecting Berger to be a little mentally drained this week. He has some pretty excellent course history with two top tens and would have been a guy I’d be on had last week not happened. Had he just had an average finish last week, he would have been price in the high 7K’s and been a great value play. Currently his Vegas Odds to win are pumping up his value, but I would assume we see a negative drift for him this week.
My big concern with Berger is that he putted out of his mind last week and that was literally the only reason he was in contention. He gained almost 9 strokes during the tournament, and that is more than he had gained putting the ENTIRE year so far. Thats obviously not sustainable.
If you look at his results this year that shows as well as the US Open was his only top ten. As I said, he has great course history here, but he had great course history two weeks at the FedEx St. Jude coming in as back to back champion and proceeded to miss the cut. I’m betting on last week being a putting anomaly and I’m not going to pay a premium for a guy who is just as likely to miss the cut as finish in the top ten.
Patrick Cantlay: DK $8400/FD $10600
Maybe the guy coming into this tournament with the best recent form is Patrick Cantlay. He was in a playoff at the Memorial and while he faded a bit over the weekend, had a good US Open for a guy that I thought would really struggle with the sand and wind.
Of the entire 8K range, Cantlay is either leading, or tied for the lead in the following stats: Made Cut %, Adjusted Field Rank, Greens in Regulation, Avg. GIR gained, Avg. Fantasy Points gained, and Double Bogey or Worse %. Thats a lot.
He also shot 60 here as an amateur, a number that would be the course record at most courses, unfortunately Jim Furyk and his awkward swing fired a 58n here once.
Unfortunately, Cantlay is one of the biggest DFS Darlings among some of the major players in the community and will likely see his ownership balloon this week because of it. Still, this is a Chalk Donkey I think you can play especially when making a balanced team.
A player that is not generating a ton of buzz that I’m in love with this week is Brian Harman. He comes in second to Cantlay in a lot of those stats, and if you look back to the key stats we mentioned at the beginning of the article he finds himself in the top of the field in Avg. GIR Gained, Projected Course Score, and Medium Par 4 scoring as well.
Check out Harman’s long term form too, he finishes in the Top 50, 71% of the time and the top 10 33% of the time! Thats the type of value I want down here. He also has pretty good course history. I’m not sure I love him in cash but he will be my number 1 target in this range in GPP.
There are a bunch of good plays in this range and you can make a solid lineup here completely fading the upper tier of golfers and I’ll be making some GPP lineups like that. Outside of Harman and Cantlay I’ll have some shares of pretty much everyone outside of JB Holmes who I don’t really care for. In order of how I would rank them this week would be.
- Brian Harman
- Patrick Cantlay
- Charlie Hoffman
- Zach Johnson
- Xander Schaufelle
- Bubba Watson
- Russell Knox
- Brandt Snedeker
All of them are great plays and the key will be picking the right combination in your lineups.
7K:
Another great group of golfers, especially in the higher end of this price range including another player who seems to be a regular in this column because DK can’t figure out how to price him.
Emiliano Grillo: DK $7700/FD $10200
Why can’t they price him right? Every week seems to be Grillo chalk week? FanDuel seems to have figured out that he’s pretty good and jacked him up to over 10K even after his MC at the US Open.
He’s a great value here on DK and is someone I’ll likely be playing in cash. A course where if your putter gets hot you can be successful? Sounds right up Grillo’s alley. He’s not someone I’ll necessarily target in GPP’s because while I think he has a really safe floor, I would rather pivot to someone with a higher ceiling who doesn’t gain all their strokes with the putter, and who isn’t 20% owned.
CT Pan: DK $7600/$8600
It disappoints me to say that my boy CT Pan might be a little chalky this week. I absolutely LOVE him here. He had an 8th place finish last year and is coming in with some very solid form, not having missed a cut since way back at the Wells Fargo.
He has an excellent GIR percentage and GIR Gained. His FP gained is not where we would like, but that takes into account his entire year and he really has only been playing solid again for the last two months.
He has two top 25 finishes here in the last few years including a 9th place finish last year.
At my favorite tournament @travelerschamp with my favorite person in the world, but she is looking at Rory… 😂 #golf #pgatour #liveunderpar pic.twitter.com/0mpEhjv2WO
— C.T. Pan (@ctpangolf) June 18, 2018
Anytime a golfer is tweeting about his favorite tournament of the year its usually a pretty good sign. If you don’t follow him on there you should, but then you’ll just want to play him every week like I do.
He’s generating a lot of buzz across the industry and will see an elevated ownership due to that, but I’ll be playing quite a bit of CT and I know the rest of the staff at DFS Army love him this week as well.
Patrick Rodgers: DK $7800/FD $8900
I’m not sure he will reach Chalk Donkey status this week, but Patrick Rodgers is generating some buzz after two solid weeks at the Memorial and US Open. He’s seen his price jump on DK but it’s still lagging on FanDuel.
While he might not be chalk donkey status, I think it’s important to point out why I don’t think he’s a great play this week, so we don’t fall into the “This guy was good last week, he should be good this week” state of mind.
If we look his projected course score, its in the bottom of guys in this price range even guys like Ryan Blaum have a better projected course score. His FP/Medium Par 4 is also pretty low, and when you sort for the entire field you see just how bad he is at Medium Length Par 4’s. Rodgers ranks 112nd in the field for Fantasy Points on Medium length par 4’s and when you think that almost half of the holes are that length…not good.
His approach game was pretty solid last week at the US Open, but over the course year he is just barely better than the field average for GIR gained per round.
For a guy that is going to be in the 10-15% ownership range I think we can easily find some other players that have better upside than Rodgers at much lower ownership.
So who else is there in the 7K Range that is a good option? Lets take a look at Course History.
The first thing that jumps out at you is Brendan Steele the guy absolutely crushes here. Outside of 2012, he hasn’t finished outside of the Top 25. Thats crazy, lock him in GPP and I think he’s cash game safe as well.
Keegan Bradley also has excellent course history here and is playing some of his best golf in the past few years since the putter change.
A player with kind of wonky course history is Kevin Streelman. Normally a guy we like in cash, he will be more of a GPP target for me this week as it looks like he either finishes top ten here or in last place. He apparently lives by the motto of legendary NASCAR driver Ricky Bobby here, “if you ain’t first, your last.”
Our RS predicts Chesson Hadley as a good value here and even though he burned me last week I’ll probably be going back to the well with him in GPP.
Next, lets look at this range in terms of medium length par 4 scoring and see if anyone pops.
Jaime Lovemark pops at the top and is a guy I’ll be on in GPP as he absolutely bombs it and with a mix of bentgrass and poa he should be extremely comfortable.
Martin Laird burned us a few weeks ago, and while its hard to go back to guys like that you can’t be a victim of recency bias. I’ll have some Marty as someone who crushes par 4’s and could be in contention if the putter cooperates.
Beau Hossler and Russell Henley are the other two guys I have interest in in this range. They will be somewhat chalky but are both playing well and should be good values down here. Henley is really reliant on his putter which concerns me so I’ll be only on him in GPP.
The lower 7K range doesn’t interest me much, there are some decent plays here like the “good Rory” Rory Sabbatini and my boy Joel Dahmen but I haven’t found myself much in this range when building lineups.
There is one guy at exactly 7K that I love though and that man is Corey Connors.
He’s just continued to play well and not only does he bomb it, but he hits greens at a pretty consistent rate better than the field. He doesn’t make a ton of big numbers and his approach game has improved as the year has went on. He’s strictly a GPP play but a guy I could see finding himself in the top 20 at the end of the tournament.
Below 7K:
Not a ton of chalk down here but we could see Dylan Meyer garner a bit of ownership after a solid performance at the US Open in his first event as a pro.
I really like James Hahn again this week. I rode him at the FedEx at 7200 and while this is a bit stronger field, he is way too cheap for the class of player he is when he is on. I always like to look for players who are underperforming for their talent and jump on them before they pop again.
Hahn actually does a lot of things well, and one he does really well is hitting Greens in Regulation which is put at a premium around here. He also has one of the highest projected course scores in the entire field, let alone this range. I think he’s worth a GPP shot.
One other that sticks out down here is my other boy Brice Garnett. He just hits fairways and greens which is what you need to do around here. He’s been consistently making the cut and finishing at the back half of the pack but for 6700 all you have to do is make the cut and you hit value. He also has a 20th place finish here in 2015 so he knows his way around the course.
Final Thoughts:
As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in slack and make sure to join in and ask any questions.
Weather won’t be near as big of an issue but as always if there appears to be an advantage to a tee time draw, we will be all over it in the slack chat!
Join us in Slack Chat this week and lets win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some huge GPP’s!
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!
