Hello Everyone and welcome back to Covering ALL the Bases, which should be your first read when researching any weekend MLB DFS slate for Fanduel or Draftkings. I go by “Thunder Dan” around here and you can find me @ThunderDanDFS on twitter.
During the week I specialize in pivots for GPP contests in my series called Dr. StrangeChalk: How I learned to dodge the Bomb. Yesterday I nailed a few low owned plays like Shane Bieber, Jack Flaherty, and the Indians bats and recommended fading the Boston and Seattle pitchers. Become a VIP member and gain access to my weekday article and dozens of other articles, plus our Research Station and Domination Station optimizer!
On the weekends I write this all-inclusive article in which I try to cover as much as I can about each of the slates. This article is constructed in much the same way as Chop’s Chin Music is during the week. It is intended to point you in the right direction and start your process. It is by no means a comprehensive list of who play or not to play in today’s contests.
Today, both sites have a 10-game early slate at 2:05 and a 4-game main slate at 7:05. Draftkings also has a 7 game afternoon only slate that excludes the three earliest games. To keep it simple, I’ll just stick with the early and main slates and keep it simple today.
Early Slate – 10 games
Finding the right pitcher this afternoon could be challenging. There are some good pitchers going today, but most of them have tough match-ups. Aaron Nola has to face the Nats and Dylan Bundy gets the always dangerous Braves, both of them on the road. Zach Greinke is a slight favorite in Pittsburgh tonight but hasn’t been his dominant self. He may be the safest cash option considering how cold the Pirates offense has been.
My two favorite GPP options this afternoon are going to be Sonny Gray against Tampa and Joe Musgrove against the Diamondbacks. Gray has some serious home/road splits this season so he is a much better play on the road today in a much pitcher-friendly park. Musgrove is in a bit of a dangerous spot at home, but he has been really good this season with the exception of one bad start. We saw the D-backs cool off last night and were shut down by Ivan Nova (caught me off guard). Musgrove was solid against Arizona in his last start against them limiting them to two earned runs over six innings with six strikeouts.
How to handle Herrera?
For me, it’s simple. Roll out Herrera in your cash games as he is going to be massively owned and you won’t want to be without him if he continues his ridiculous run. In GPPs he becomes a game theory fade for me, but a dangerous one. The Phillies get Washington’s worst pitcher today, Eric Fedde, who’s given up three or more runs in all three of his starts this season.
The other team to get exposure to in cash games is the Colorado Rockies. They are at home against struggling right-hander Trevor Richards and they’ve simply been crushing the ball lately. I would focus more on the left-handed bats today than the righties.
The other high total game you’ll want to target is Texas at Minnesota. Yovani Gallardo faces off against Jake Odorizzi and I like the chances for both of these offenses to tee off on the opposing pitchers. Don’t sleep on the Oakland-Chicago White Sox game either. At one point, Daniel Mengden and Dylan Covey had tried to convince us that they were competent pitchers, but I’m not buying it, and we’ve seen them regress badly in their last several starts.
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Main Slate (Evening) – 4 games
When it comes to pitching, there are only a few guys you can really consider tonight and unfortunately, I don’t think Clayton Kershaw isn’t one. Kershaw has a great matchup but is coming off the DL without making a rehab start. He only threw a 3-inning simulated game and is likely on a pretty rigid pitch count tonight. He’s just not going to get enough innings to pay off his salary and he hasn’t been himself all season. There’s no reason to take a gamble on him tonight.
His counterpart Jacob Degrom is likely super chalk and an easy choice for cash games. Degrom has been in Cy Young form over the last month and should dominate the Dodgers tonight. The best GPP pivot is likely Lance McCullers, who got back on track against the Royals in his last outing, striking out 9 over 6 frames. The Royals are simply one of the coldest offenses in the league right now and rostering McCullers saves you 2500 off Degrom on Fanduel, allowing you to get a few more good bats in there.
It’s going to be tough to fit the offenses you want (Red Sox, Astros, Mariners) in with Degrom or even McCullers, but that is the route I would go. Look for a few value plays like Brock Holt (2500), Luis Valbuena (2600) and Jackie Bradley Jr (2400) to try to save some cap for the big bats you want to stack.
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