Welcome to this weeks Chalk Donkey article for DFS Golf. This week we have Jack’s tournament, the Memorial, at Muirfield Village Golf Club.
My name is Josh Thomas, and I’ll be writing the Chalk Donkey article for VIP’s every week here at DFS Army looking at who the chalk plays are in DFS Golf and who you can pivot to. We’ll look at if you need to eat the chalk especially in cash games, and take a deep dive into some pivots using our Research Station and the Domination Station.
This week the tour heads up to Dublin, Ohio for the Memorial held at Muirfield Village Golf Club. This tournament is affectionately known as “Jack’s Tournament” and Muirfield Village as “Jack’s Place” since legendary golfer Jack Nicklaus built this course in his hometown of Dublin, Ohio to host this tournament specifically. Muirfield Village and the surrounding community is home to Jason Day (which you’ll hear about 1000 times on the broadcast this week)
The field is again smaller this week, with 120 players compared to 156 at a normal tour event. With the smaller player pool, it’s vital to identify the chalk, but its also vital to get 6/6 through so we may have to eat some of it, to ensure our teams have a shot at taking down a big GPP on the weekend. The field this week is stacked with 15 of the top 20 in the OWGR playing and 35 of the top 50, making this one of the best fields outside of a major or the players this year.
What is a Chalk Donkey?
First let’s breakdown what I consider to be ‘chalk’. Let’s look at each each price range and what is considered chalk there. (DK pricing is used for a guide)
Over 10K: >25% Anything over 25% in this range is considered chalk, and could even go down to 20%. Some weeks ownership is pretty evenly spread in this range, and some weeks one player gathers all the ownership and becomes a Chalk Donkey.
9K: >20% Again, any time over 20% of the field is on a player in this price range we would consider them a chalk donkey.
8K to 7.5K: 15%-20% This is a little trickier in this range, but I consider anyone over 15% chalk. DK has been jamming a bunch of guys in around 7.5k lately and we’ve seen guys get up there in ownership.
Below 7.5K: >10% Players are priced here for a reason, and oftentimes one or two become what I call DFS Darlings and garner a ton of ownership While you usually have to eat this chalk in cash, you want to swerve it any chance you can in GPP’s.
One thing to remember as you construct lineups, players are ‘Chalk Donkeys’ for a reason, they are perceived to be good plays. Don’t fade the ‘Chalk Donkeys’ just because they are going to be highly owned. Very rarely does no chalk hit, and often times you find some of these ‘Chalk Donkeys’ in GPP winning lineups. Fading the chalk is strictly a leverage play, in that if that player plays poorly you are in much better shape not playing them.
Jordan Spieth was the perfect example last week. 20ish percent owned and failed to crack the top 30. If you played him you probably struggled to cash your lineups, but if you pivoted to Rahm, Rose, or even Rickie you were in great shape. If Spieth would have figured out how to putt though, and you didn’t have him you were in trouble. Embrace the variance of DFS Golf!
Key Stats this Week:
This is a new section this week as I’ve seen a lot of questions about what to look for in our slack chat about what to look for in the Research Station.
Value Tab:
The first thing I look for when I open up the RS is the Value tab. Who is popping as a value this week. This is pretty easy to find as the better the value, the darker the green box.
Looking at this mid-range this week we have Kuchar, DeChambeau, Na, and Howell popping as the top values. I’ll still play guys if they aren’t considered a great value (like Oosthuizen) but this helps me start to develop my player pool.
Fantasy Points/Hole:
The next stat I look at is the Fantasy Points/Hole tab. This basically looks at how many fantasy points players are averaging on each hole. While we want to find players who have a chance to win, we also want guys who score well in fantasy terms. Most of the time those go together, but sometimes they don’t.
Obviously we know that the top end guys score well in fantasy terms. they are the top players in the world, but do any of them separate themselves? If we look at Fantasy Points/Hole alone, we like DJ, Thomas, Rose, and Stenson this week.
SG: Approach
Next, I look at what strokes gained categories are important historically here. To do that, I click the results by SG Tab.
When looking at this, it’s pretty clear to see that SG: Approach is king here. Players who gain 1.5+ strokes approach, finish on average around 20th place and have about 80.4 Fantasy Points. Anytime you lose strokes you’re really in trouble, but historically it looks like if you lose strokes approach here you are REALLY in trouble. And if you are losing strokes approach, that means you have to gain strokes around the green and if you can’t do that…well you’ll be slamming your trunk and heading home on Friday.
One trick when using the RS is to download it so you can sort each column to your liking. When I do this and sort the SG: Approach tab, I can find who is gaining the most strokes approach.
When we do this we see some of the higher priced guys, but then two values really pop up in Niemann and Keegan, and even Hadley who is severely underpriced this week.
These are three of the things I look at when using the RS, obviously there are a million different ways to use it, but hopefully this gets you on the right track to building a solid player pool this week. Now, let’s get to the chalk donkeys!
Who are this week’s Chalk Donkeys?
In this section, each price range’s Chalk Donkey will be identified, and a few pivots will be offered. I use DraftKings pricing since that is where I usually play, but their pricing is usually similar to FanDuel and when a player pops as a value on one site but not another I’ll make sure to mention it.
Above 10K:
We have 5 golfers priced above 10K This week, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, and Justin Thomas. All are great plays this week, and combined have 11 top tens in 31 attempts going back to 2010.
As with any tournament where we have a stacked field, the ownership tends to get pretty spread out over the top 5-6 guys. Currently it looks like Jason Day is gaining a lot of buzz. Hasn’t played since his win at the Wells Fargo and this being his home course, people will be on him this week.
Dustin Johnson was a massive favorite here last year, and was 30% owned in most contests. The fade was the play as he missed the cut shooting +8 over the first two days.
Justin Rose is coming off a win at the Fort Worth Invitational where his ball striking was superb. Rory McIlroy looked to be set to run away with the BMW PGA at Wentworth, but faltered over the weekend. All Justin Thomas has done is take over the number one OWGR yet he is the lowest priced of these five.
With the ownership looking to be spread out, lets look at who the best fit is here, and where we should be allocating our shares in this top range. All are good plays and making lineups starting with each one of them can be good strategy in a tournament like this. There is huge variance and this course plays similar to TPC Sawgrass in that a great play can MC and a poor play can contend.
When we look at the Key Stats portion of the RS. DJ really pops. He’s got the best Adjusted Field Rank, second best Driving Accuracy %, and best greens in regulation percentage. Last years MC is going to drive down ownership, as well as him being the top priced player. Outside of last years MC DJ has only missed the cut one other time. He has also finished 3rd and 4th. With the rough long, I’m going to rely on DJ’s accuracy off the tee, especially when he can club down, to put him in a good position this week.
While Justin Rose also looks strong I’m not going to chase his performance in GPP’s. He killed the approach game last week, but traditionally he doesn’t gain a ton of Strokes Approach, and if he struggles there, his putter will have to be on fire, not his strong suit.
Justin Thomas at his price is the most intriguing to me. He’s the number one ranked golfer in the world, yet the 5th priced golfer here on DK.
The Par 5’s have an average Birdie or Better percentage of 41.5%. You need to score on these Par 5’s. Among the top tier, outside of DJ, Thomas has the most fantasy points on the par 5’s. The 6 long par 4’s are not birdie holes by any means, but Thomas plays them better than most as well.
I will have some shares of most of these guys, but will be overweight on Dustin Johnson and Justin Thomas this week. Going down to Thomas allows you to build some really interesting lineups and I’m interested in the idea of pairing him with the guy right below him, even if he is chalky.
9K:
Jordan Spieth: DK $9800/FD $11,800
Here we are again. Every week we seem to be back in this same spot. Can Jordan putt? If he does, he wins. If he doesn’t you get smoked…again. He is currently getting a lot of .buzz and could end up being chalky, but I think this is the week that people get tired of using him and not getting value in return. His current price may lure some back in, but even if he is chalky, I think this is the week to jump on him.
Take a look at Spieth’s key stats. Crushes Green in, low DBW%, Approach, off the tee, and Around the Green are all great. Adjusted Field rank is 4th best in the field, the only thing holding him back is that putter. While we didn’t hear about it as much last week, he still lost strokes putting. With the fast undulating greens this week, strokes gained putting is neutralized a bit. If we look back at the historical strokes gained data, there is only a 15 fantasy point gap from gaining 1.5 strokes putting and losing .5. Compare that to SG: Approach and thats a 40 fantasy point gap. SG: Approach is much more important than putting this week, which makes me feel a little more comfortable with Spieth.
Another thing to look at for good course fits is the Projected Course Score in our RS. This takes the amount of fantasy points golfers average on the hole types of the particular course they are playing that week and adds them up .This score shows who is a good ‘course fit’. At the top we have the two targets from the 10K Range, and there is Spieth, 4th overall.
Spieth is a great fit here, and while others will probably be jumping off the train, I’m going to be jumping on this week.
Outside of Spieth the rest of the range will share about equal ownership. Overall we may see the Mid 9K-8K range a bit overlooked as players try to go Stars and Scrubs this week with the value in the low 7K range.
Tiger Woods: DK $9400/FD $11300
I think Tiger will probably carry the most ownership here outside of Spieth. He has a pretty solid recent game log, and he has never missed a cut here, 15/15 and 5 wins. People are going to hear that all week and flock to him. And he’s Tiger Woods. I can see this being the week he wins he knows this place like the back of his hand. I can also see him struggle this week, mainly because of the forecasted weather and the fact the rough might be extra long come Thursday. Tiger’s not the most accurate off the tee (unless he commits to clubbing down), and if he has to hit his approach from the long rough, he could be in trouble early and often.
Here is the main reason I’m off Tiger this week though, he doesn’t score well from a fantasy perspective. He has had some solid results, but has really struggled to score fantasy points.
Here’s the 9K range as a hole. Tiger scores .08 less Fantasy Points/Hole than his peers in this range. and his projected course score is almost 1 full point lower than the next closest player. While he has dominated here in the past, his current form doesn’t necessarily show him having success this week. He might pop, and he might finish top ten, but its possible he does that and scores outside the top 20 in fantasy points.
Tiger also ranks 51st in Adjusted Field Rank, at 61.5%. Thats the lowest of anyone priced above 9K.
There are better options in this range, including the guy priced right below him, who I love this week and am starting my cash game lineups with, Henrik Stenson.
Stenson is 5th in Fantasy Points/Hole this week, and 18th in Projected Course Score. He is number one in driving accuracy (which with the anticipated long rough, could be key) and number 3 in GIR. He’s also number one SG: APP.
If I was playing One and Done this week and he was still available I’d be all over Stenson. He will be one of my core plays this week, and I think we see him contending for a win on Sunday.
Don’t overthink cash games this week, lock him in, and try to fit him in your GPP lineups as well, he is my favorite play this week.
8K:
There are ten players in this price range this week, so we will see another huge 7k Range. Ownership seems to be trending towards a couple of true ‘Chalk Donkeys’ here this week.
Emiliano Grillo: DK $8400/FD $10400
Here we are again, writing up Grillo as chalk. Last week the Grillo fade didn’t pay off as he continued to dominate with the putter to finish 3rd and earn 112.5 fantasy points. He gained a ridiculous 10.7 strokes putting over the week in Fort Worth. Thats 5 strokes more than he has all season, and over 8 strokes better than his average.
I can’t imagine that holds up this week. Grillo is a solid play and I’ll be locking him into cash games again, but I don’t trust that he gains that many strokes putting again.
He looks to be pushing 20-25% owned this week and if thats the case I will be leaning towards a full fade in GPP.
Tony Finau: DK $8100/FD $10600
Finau is someone I expect to gain a lot of steam late in the week at this price. He will help you jam two high priced guys into your lineup and still feel good about it.
He has some excellent course history here, going 3/3 in cuts made with finishes of 40, 11, and 8 respectively.
Tony scores well on Long Par 5’s, and has the best adjusted field rank of the bunch. He will be strictly an ownership play for me. I think he can contend, but if it looks like he’s going to push 20ish percent, I’ll consider fading him and flopping some shares to the two guys I’ll profile next.
Phil Mickelson and Matt Kuchar are my two favorite plays of this entire range. Take a look at Kuchar’s course history below.
Are you kidding me? He’s never finished lower than 26.
“It’s funny, my track record on Jack Nicklaus courses and Pete Dye courses are pretty good. They like kind of a high fade. Certainly, Nicklaus was that guy. My shot is a left-to-right ball. A lot of holes where I feel awfully comfortable teeing off out here.”
Sign me up for a whole lot of Matt Kuchar. He’s another cash game lock, and I think a strong GPP play as well. He has gained strokes in 32 of 36 rounds here at Muirfield Village. His adjusted field rank is also 4th in this range behind Mickelson, Brendan Grace, and Tony Finau.
I’m going back to the well this week with Phil Mickelson as well. He burned us at the Players but he has been absolutely phenomenal this year otherwise.
One of the best FP/Hole, Adjusted Field Rank, and Projected Course Score. Crushes Par 5’s, and is strong everywhere else. Phil lost 5.6 strokes putting here last here and finished 22nd. His putter has been much improved so far in 2018, actually having the most SG: Putting of the entire field.
I worry a bit about Phil’s accuracy off the tee, but no one scrambles better than Phil. Actually 28 guys on tour do, but thats neither here nor there. 29th in scrambling is solid. He’s a great GPP play this week, I won’t be trusting him in cash though, even with that fantastic Made Cut %.
7K:
Another HUGE 7K Range this week with LOTS of options, lets dive in and find the Chalk Donkeys and who our pivots are this week.
Kevin Na: DK $7600/FD $9500
Kevin Na has been on fire recently. Started last week with a 62 and ended with a 61. Gaining a ton of strokes with his putter in both rounds. Unfortunately he struggled with pretty much all of his game in the middle two.
Our RS views him as a good value this week, and I do to. I think you can play him, but at what ownership do you want to consider fading him in GPP’s? Right now it’s looking like he will be in the top ten most owned golfers this week. That could change obviously but is Na worthy of a top ten ownership percentage? The answer I have for that is a definitive, Maybe?
Kevin is surprisingly one of the best Par 5 Scorers in the field, and could do well. He should be able to hit driver off most of the tees, as he’s not long enough to get himself into bunker trouble.
I usually like to fade a guy after they go nuts. Na’s 61 and 62 are the definition of nuts. DFS Golf has a huge recency bias and guys will remember that when they go to lock in lineups this week, which will inflate his ownership to the point that its not worth playing him. His made cut percentage is mediocre and his strokes gained approach is in the lower end of guys around him.
There’s better plays, and while he is good value at $7600, I’ll be looking elsewhere this week.
Bryson DeChambeau: DK $7700/FD 10300
I’ve slowly started to come around on Bryson over the last few weeks. While doing research last night I was hoping we would get him in that $8300 range and have the price depress his ownership. Unfortunately he’s down here in a range that people will hammer as they look to jam in studs.
Regardless, Bryson is a great play this week and we like him not only for GPP’s but Cash games as well.
If you’ve been paying attention to the article, anytime I have sorted statistics, Bryson’s name has popped up in Projected Course Score, Par 5 Scoring, Fantasy Points/Hole. This course just fits his game. We know he kills par 5’s, and now we get a course with 4 par 5’s that are all gettable, giving up an average Birdie or Better % of 40%.
I would like his SG: Approach to be a little better as he is not a great scrambler around the greens or in the bunker, but that Par 5 scoring is so juicy. Thats how you crush Fantasy Points. I’ll take an eagle at the expense of a bogey later on. He actually has one of the better DB or Worse % in the field too.
He will most likely be chalky, but Bryson is chalk I’m willing to eat and he’ll be a part of the core in my player pool.
Who are the pivots in this range? There are a ton of good plays and I’m going to list them off with a quick hit on why we like them.
7K Pivots:
Chesson Hadley: DK $7900/FD $9700– Continues to be underpriced given his performance recently. He’s 5th in SG: Approach in the field this week. Load him up in Cash and GPP.
Ryan Moore: DK $7500/FD $9300 – Love Ryan Moore this week, outside of last year has a fantastic course history. He’s been playing well and is extremely accurate off the tee. Lock and Load in any format this week.
Luke List: DK $7400/FD $9300 – List is one of my favorite GPP Plays this week. It’s not that long ago that he was priced up to around 10K, obviously in a much weaker field though. List crushes the ball. Like Long Drive guys long. Yet he seems to be popping at these less than driver courses. 3rd at the RBC Heritage, 16th at Valspar, 2nd at Honda. He plays better when he doesn’t have to hit the driver, which seems counter intuitive but its shown in his results.
Joaquin Niemann: DK $7300/FD $8600 – It’s been a long time coming, but I’m finally on Joaquin Niemann. It’s a small sample size obviously, but check out his SG: APP stats.
His approach game was on fire last weekend, and when he got his putter going he was lights out. Strictly a GPP Play but you can’t argue with two top 10s in 5 starts from the young 19 year old.
Keegan Bradley: DK $7200/FD $9000
If you looked at these statistics, you would assume this would be someone priced up in the mid 8K Range, yet here we are with Keegan all the way back at 7.2K.
He mashes Par 5’s, has a great Adjusted Field Rank. Suprisingly is extremely accurate off the tee and his Approach game is fire. His negative strokes gained putting is a result of long term lack of success and he has actually gained strokes putting the last two tournaments he’s played in.
I’m all in on Keegan this week, Cash, GPP, Betting, give me some Keegs. He may come in a little chalky but he’s one of the best plays on the board this week.
Under 7K:
As usually not a lot of chalk down here, but there has been some talk among the DFS Golf Community about David Lingmerth….don’t do it. He’s almost min priced on FD, but he has ZERO form to speak of unless you consider a 28th at Corales Punta Cana a solid result (I do, but only because I degen played that slate on DK)
You really don’t have to come down here at all this week. If you do you basically just have to get lucky. I could be talked into a little bit of Grayson Murray and Ted Potter Jr. in GPP’s, but if I’m going to play anyone down here I’m taking a big flyer on Cameron Davis. Cam missed the cut at AT&T Pro Am, but made it at the Farmers and won last week on the Web.Com at the Nashville Open. He won last year’s Australian Open as well. Both of his wins have been come from behind efforts on Sunday. If he does happen to make the cut, we may want to lock him into showdown lineups on Sunday.
Weather:
Looks like we will have some weather to contend this week at Muirfield Villa
ge, which isn’t surprising this time of year in Ohio as even if its not forecasted, the heat can have thunderstorms pop up out of nowhere. Last year’s final round had two weather delays for storms in it.
It looks like the rain will probably end up cancelling the Pro-Am Wednesday. There’s some concern about the length of rough if they are unable to cut it before Thursday, but looking at this there is some concern if they even play Thursday.
We will keep you updated in the slack chat and if there appears to be any sort of advantage with the waves, we will let you know! As of right now I’m going to be focusing on Driving Accuracy and Strokes Gained Approach as the two key stats to look at for success this week.
Final Thoughts:
As ownership trends start to finalize this week, I’ll post some updates in slack and make sure to join in and ask any questions.
Over the past few weeks I’ve been toying with some different MME strategies and last week I had a ton of success in GPP’s with it. Still want to give it one more test run and then I’ll share it with you guys, most likely with a video next.
Join us in Slack Chat this week and lets win some money! I’ll be there off and on all week, but will be in helping build lineups from 9:00 to 10:00 PM CST on Wednesday night getting you guys ready to take down some GPP’s.
Also, give me a follow on twitter @dfsupnorth as I’ll be posting updates there as well as useful retweets leading up to this weeks event!
