Week 2 of 3 of the west coast swing is underway and I couldn’t be more excited. Before we hop into the article let me first apologize for the lack of Competition Caution these last couple weeks. I assure you moving forward we will have consistent articles on week we go to tracks for the first time. But enough yammering – let’s get into it. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
Top Plays
Kevin Harvick – As boring as this is – you have to love Harvick’s chances to make it three in a row. Now be weary – teams generally struggle after taking a big penatly like the 4 team did. BUT – Harvick is at one of his best tracks with seemingly the best car. He rolls of tenth, which is perfect for us, and was fastest in short and long run speed during today’s final practice. Hard to avoid Harv this week, expect to see him at 55 to 60 percent.
Brad Keselowski – Speaking of hard to ignore – xFInity winner Brad K will roll off 25th tomorrow at a track he is more than capable of running top 5. His car is probably top ten at best, but that is all we need from him. I see him going 35-40% owned tomorrow.
Aric Almirola – For perhaps the first time EVER – Aric make his way into the top plays. And for good reason – Almirola is fantastic at Phoenix, and will be running that lighting fast Kevin Harvick setup. He starts 22nd, but I can see him running top five most the day. He has the speed and ability. Look to see him played at around 30%.
Truex Jr. – MTJ is not known for his prowess at Phoenix, but he should be able to tick off a bunch of laps led before being blown away by Kevin Harvick. I think MTJ will be a top five staples most of the day, and has a good chance at leading 80+ laps. He will probably be around 40-45% owned.
Fades
I don’t see any super clear fades this week. I am a little weary of the Chevrolet camp as a whole right now, but I can’t single one out who I am a full fade on.
Value
Michael McDowell – YAYYYY finally McDowell qualified poorly enough for us to play him. McDowell is just a solid all around driver who runs clean and always outruns his equipment. He rolls of 31st and can easily sneak into the top 20 if the day goes well.
Ricky Stenhouse – It’s no secret that Stenhouse knows his way around a short track, and all the stars are aligned for him this week. A poor starting spot, a short track, and a seat in the fastest manufacturer in the sport right now – Ford. Play Rick this week folks.
Ty Dillon – Ty hasn’t had a great year so far, but that should only serve to push his ownership down for us. I think Ty, who has a top 25 car against a 28th starting spot, can turn it around this week. Phoenix has been a good track for him, and he has a real knack for staying out of trouble and getting better as the race progresses.
Worth Mentioning
Alex Bowman – In any other situation, Bowman would be a full fade. In fact I considered putting him as a fade. HOWEVER – I have a hunch. Be careful with this pick – because it is risky. However – Bowman is really good at Phoenix, and has shown speed all weekend. I am pretty turned off by the Chevs right now, bet Alex has been able to outdrive a bad car before. Heck, he dominated at Phoenix in 2016 as a replacement for Dale Jr. Bowman starts 4th, which makes this super volatile. A whole big bunch needs to go right for this play to work out, but it is a GPP winning pick. It could also ruin your day. You have been warned.
So there it is folks. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.
