One more stop on the west coast swing and for me, it’s one of the best races on the circuit. Fontana is fast and wide, boasting multiple passing grooves and a real emphasis on driver talent. It SHOULD also add some parity to a fairly predictable 2018 – as I believe we may see some new contenders emerge this weekend. It’s going to be a great weekend with LOTS of content– the best way to keep up with all this is to get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. Let’s start our research by taking a high-level look at Fontana:
Track/Race Length: 2.0 mile D-shaped oval, 200 laps, 400 miles
Superspeedway: 2.0-mile oval 75 feet wide with a 15 foot apron
Banking: turns: 14°; front stretch 11°; backstretch 3°
Front Stretch: 3,100feet
Back Stretch: 2,500feet
Pit Road: 2,200 feet long with 44 individual pit stalls
Pit Road Speed: 55mph
Pace Car Speed: 60mph
Now we only go to Fontana once a year – but we can still extrapolate some meaningful data from that. Take a look at some stats over the last three years, sorted by average running position:
The first name on that list, Chase Elliott, will be a bit of a question mark coming into Fontana. Of the Chevy’s, Chase has run among the best in 2018, and in his short career has shown real prowess on the 2 mile tracks. However, Fontana represents one of the first real tests of the new Chevrolet body types. So far – the Chevrolet camp hasn’t been able to make things click. If they can make something happen in terms of speed I expect Chase to be a real contender.
The same can be said of Kyle Larson – who has managed to win the last four races on 2 mile tracks. Larson has been the fastest of the Chevrolets in 2018, and in 2017 for that matter – and has a knack for out-driving his equipment regardless. Don’t let his Fontana stats fool you – he holds it high, wide and handsome around that joint and will ALWAYS be in contention.
While I do expect to see some new faces towards the front of the pack this week, I don’t expect to see any lack of Kevin Harvick come Sunday. Since 2015, no one has led more laps at Fontana than Harv, who carries a pack leading 5.7 average finish. That 4 bunch has it going on right now, and chances are they will be super competitive this weekend too.
I also have my eye on the Penske Fords – a collective who always bring power to these big sweeping tracks. Brad and Joey carry the top two pass differential across the last three years, which shows just how much spark those machines have.
Ryan Blaney crashed out in his first start in California, but he ran well before that. He flirted with the top ten all day, and finished the day with an average running position of 14. Last year, Blaney backed it up with a top ten finish. Blaney has been relevant all year – he is worth looking at.
As for value candidates – Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez, Aric Almirola, Ryan Newman, Austin Dillon, Michael McDowell, Chris Buescher and Matt Dibenedetto stand out, but we will have more on that post qualifying.
So spend your weekend investigating those guys and we will catch up during The Sway Bar this Saturday. I have a really good feeling about this week. If you want to get in on the action, get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
