Greetings and welcome to the DFS Army NASCAR Xfinity preview! I’m a coach/contributor at the DFS Army and part of what I do is cover all things NASCAR. You can find me in our Slack channels @nillyJay or on Twitter. If you’re not a part of our group yet, consider signing up here. We have some of the best tools and projections in the industry for every sport, as well as the Domination Station lineup optimizer that has unique stacking features you won’t find anywhere else. For NASCAR we have projections with lead/fastest laps, the research station (tons of data in one place), and dominator stacking features in our optimizer (and yes, that includes the Xfinity series!). Be sure to use promo code NILLY to lock in a 10% savings.
Phoenix / ISM Raceway
This week we head to Phoenix for a 200-mile shootout at one of my favorite tracks (seriously, how cool would it be to watch a race from that hillside?). This low-banked “flat” track is one of only five that we’ll see in the Xfinity series this season. Since this isn’t your typical high-flying 1.5 mile track, and because it can get a little crazy here (on average about four wrecks and seven DNFs at each of the last five races), it’ll be worth your time to identify and pay up for the kind of drivers who excel at these kind of tracks. It shouldn’t be as messy as Daytona was, but don’t expect it to be smooth sailing like Atlanta and Las Vegas were either.
There are a few key stats that stand out for Phoenix; quality passes, time spent in the top 15, average running position, and positive differential. Because the track is only a mile long, slower cars quickly get lapped during an average green flag run. When the caution comes out, one car will gain a lap while the others start getting locked in place.
As these green/yellow flag cycles repeat, you get cars that are locked down in a staggered formation (for example: -6, -5, -5, -4, -3, -3, -3, -2, -1, -1) instead of having a handful of drivers all a lap or two down (like what happens at bigger/safer tracks). When you have 10 cars all one lap down, they can still race each other to try and get the free pass. When they’re lapped down in a staggered formation, they simply can’t race their way back onto the lead lap; their only hope to gain any spots back is to survive a big wreck.
Monster Energy drivers
Four drivers from the Monster Energy Cup series will participate in the Xfinity race this week:
Kyle Busch ($14,300) – Kyle B’s success at Phoenix is no secret, but like last week, he has a huge price tag.
Brad Keselowski ($13,000) – Brad K will make his Xfinity debut this week. While not as expensive as Kyle, he also carries a pretty hefty price tag.
Jamie McMurray ($10,900) – JMac will also be making his Xfinity debut here, and will be driving the same car that Kyle Larson cruised into victory lane last week.
Ty Dillon ($10,100) – T Dil rounds out the cup drivers for the week and brings a solid track history to the table. He’s usually a great option here – if you can afford him.
As usual, these drivers are the most expensive on the slate. The trick will be choosing the right one(s) that allow you to properly construct the rest of your lineup. We’ll have a better idea of where to go after qualifying, but even without that, I have a pretty good idea of how I want to attack this race. My VIP article will go into more detail about that, so stay tuned!
Xfinity drivers
Elliott Sadler ($9,700) – A very safe (albeit pricey) option, Sadler has completed an astonishing 99.2% (3,753 of 3,784) of laps during his 19 races at Phoenix. Of those 31 that were missed, 26 of them came from one race where he was caught up in a 5-car wreck near the end of a race. He may not lead many laps here, but few other drivers have as high of a floor as he will this week.
Justin Allgaier ($9,400) – Speaking of high floors, Allgaier’s is right up there with Sadler. He had a nice run here last year, but don’t be fooled by those 85 lead laps; that race didn’t include any top-tier studs from the Monster Energy series. He’ll have to pass two of them this week to get a shot at leading any laps, and I don’t like his chances of doing that. Don’t ignore him though, as he has just as good of a shot at a top 5 finish as anybody.
Christopher Bell ($9,200) – This kid can drive well seemingly everywhere, and Phoenix is no exception. He’s raced here three times (Xfinity and Camping World) and boasts a very impressive stat line; 6.3 average finish, 4.3 average running position, 40 quality passes, 65 fastest laps, and an average driver rating of 116.03. Even more impressive is the fact that in his 500 laps here, he’s never once dropped below 10th place.
Daniel Hemric ($8,400) – He had two solid finishes here last year (5th and 7th), but in one of those races he got there from the back of the field (started 35th). He’s a driver who knows how to work his way up when time is against him, which is exactly what we want here.
Ryan Reed ($8,100) – Reed is a solid top 15 driver here with 6 of them in 9 tries (worst finish was 23rd). He has a limited ceiling though, as he’s only cracked the top 10 once with a 6th place finish in 2016. His ceiling will be directly tied to his starting position and how high it is above a 12th to 15th place finish.
Michael Annett ($7,900) – Basically a more experienced version of Reed, but with two top 10 finishes instead of one (9th place last year, 7th place in 2012) in 12 races.
David Starr ($6,400) – His average finish may only be 25, but if you take away his worst one it drops down to 19.6. He’ll eventually get locked down in the green/yellow flag cycle, but should have some fight in him to move up before that happens. He’s cheap enough to be considered as a viable cheap option, especially if he sees a poor qualifying position.
Jeremy Clements ($6,200) – Mostly the same as Starr but with 16 races under his belt. Worth a look if he finds himself back with slower cars ahead of him.
That’ll do it for now. Remember that there’s a narrow window of time between qualifying and the green flag for Xfinity races, so don’t be caught trying to figure everything out when you should be piecing lineups together instead. If you haven’t quite figured out a good process yet, consider reading my beginner NASCAR strategy articles to help get you pointed in the right direction; beginner’s – intermediate. And of course, if you’re not yet a member and you want to come join us for the more in-depth discussions we have in our Slack channels, along with access to all of our tools/resources, you can do so here. Don’t forget to use promo code NILLY to lock in that 10% savings!
