Hello Army, welcome to another VIP-only NASCAR article! The races this weekend look promising, but we have a lot to go over before we can start making some money.
If you haven’t already, check out the Xfinity race preview HERE to get up to speed. The first few paragraphs go over how the race will likely play out, and that applies to the Monster Energy race as well. The only difference is that the salaries aren’t near as tight for the Monster Energy race, so we’ll have more freedom with those lineups.
Xfinity DC Solar 200
This week we’re looking at 200 laps and 40 drivers for the Xfinity race at Phoenix. Kyle Busch will make an appearance, and barring any wrecks or pit road issues, I expect him to be the sole dominator of this race. In the preview article I mentioned having a strategy in mind for this race, so let’s get right into that. First, check out Busch’s stats for his last seven races here:
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Next, consider what happened last week. We had Busch and Larson as the two top studs. If you recall my Slack notes, I mentioned that I was on team Larson because of his cheaper price and increasingly better track history. The race played out just as I thought it would with Larson leading the way and Busch just sort of hanging around. This week has similar pricing at the top end, but my approach will be different.
Busch had around 20% ownership last week, and I’m hoping it’ll be even lower this week because of the horrible value he had at Las Vegas. I think people will take the savings and go elsewhere, which is the opposite of what I want to do. The question will be whether or not he can pay off his salary.
To answer that, let’s first look back at the Atlanta & Las Vegas races. The two dominators had nice performances; Harvick had 115.25 DKFP (10.57x value) and Larson had 115 DKFP (9.13x value). Those are great values at their salaries, but look at Busch’s stats above. Over his last seven races here, he’s AVERAGING nearly 9x value (based on his current $14,300 salary). As we know, the higher the salary, the more significant it is when they hit a high value multiplier. An average of 9x at $14,300 over seven races is just insane. So the answer is yes, he can easily pay off his salary, even if doesn’t gain any positive place differential.
All things considered, Busch is my guy this weekend and I plan to go overweight on him. I might have a few Keselowki lineups, but he will need to either qualify in the back or survive an early wreck that takes out several key drivers (allowing him to lead a bunch of laps) before he can pay off his salary. I’d rather attack the possible low ownership of Busch who has a very good chance of being in a winning lineup this week, even with his hefty price tag.
Jamie McMurray is my favorite (active) driver, but he’s struggled a lot at Phoenix. He’s doing a double header this weekend, though I suspect he’s only running the Xfinity race as practice for the Monster Energy one. Ty Dillon has a very strong track history, but we should be able to get similar a performance with cheaper drivers this week. As it stands now, I have very little interest of either of these two in the Xfinity race.
Xfinity lineup thoughts
If we have to take a very expensive driver, that’s going to put a strain on the rest of our lineup. There are several good options to choose from at the top (see my preview article), and we’ll discuss where to go after qualifying hits. For now, I’m more focused on researching the cheaper options, as I think they will make or break lineups again this week (and probably every week as long as these high salaries stick around).
David Starr ($6,400) – I talked about him in the preview article, and he’s still firmly on my radar.
Jeremy Clements ($6,200) – I mentioned him too, but I’m a lot more interested in him than I led on. Like Busch, he’s been a letdown so far in the Xfinity races. Unless he qualifies last, I expect his ownership to be suppressed a bit due to recency bias. However, he’s actually had pretty decent success at Phoenix. I put together a list of his stats over his 15 races, and at first glance it’s not overly exciting:
But look how much better they are if you remove the four races where he had mechanical issues or found an early crash. If you then remove his only remaining single digit performances (also early wrecks, but he did finish those races), he bumps up to an average of 30.14 (4.71x value) DKFP over nine races. We need value with a low ownership, and Clements could offer both. I’m not saying lock him into every lineup, but I think he could become a key value play this week.
Dylan Lupton ($5,900) – Another potentially sneaky option, Lupton has two 19th place finishes at his first two races at Phoenix.
Both races only had three mild wrecks, so he wasn’t just a lucky beneficiary. He had a similar race at Atlanta where he scored 30 DKFP, but the other two races keep his average down to an undesirable 9.5 DKFP. People will look at his Atlanta race an at outlier, but we know better. Keep your eye on him this weekend!
Final Xfinity thoughts
My GPP approach will be the same this week as it was last; I want the lead laps (probably Busch) and as much strong finishing position that I get, then I want to sprinkle around the cheap options to try and land on the right ones. The perfect lineup last week had two cheap drivers ($6,000 & $4,700), and I expect this week to be the same. Because of this, and due to the nature of races at Phoenix, this week I’m only interested in MME GPP. I won’t be playing cash (very few single entry contests) for the Xfinity race. I’ll save those for the Monster Energy race instead.
Monster Energy TicketGuardian 500
Everything that I said about the nature of races at Phoenix in the Xfinity preview article holds true for the Monster Energy race as well. The only difference is the salaries aren’t near as tight, so we can get away with a more balanced lineup. We’ll probably still want a solid cheap value option, but we shouldn’t need to go dumpster diving for a $4.5k driver that won’t go anywhere.
You may be wondering why is this race considered low/medium risk when the Xfinity race is considered medium. The biggest factor is driver salaries and the fact that we’re likely going to be forced into using punts in the Xfinity race. That makes things less predictable since we’re banking on one of them having a good day. On the Monster Energy side, we can build more balanced. There’s always a possibility of a big wreck, but it’s still not as risky as a plate or short track. Cash ladders are just fine here, as are all forms of GPP.
A two dominator lineup has been the sweet spot for most of the recent Phoenix races, with a couple of single dominator performances mixed in. The approach will be the same as last week; two dominators for cash and 1-2 for GPP. Any laps led by a third driver should be considered a bonus, as it’s hard to predict three exact dominators at a single race. We need to see how everybody does in practice and where they qualify to know who we want to go after, but for now let’s go over some drivers!
Remember, we don’t build lineups until after qualifying. This is not a lock/fade list, so don’t treat it like one. Instead, use it to guide your research. Find drivers who could excel when put into certain situations so you know who to consider after qualifying.
Monster Energy drivers – dominators / studs
Kevin Harvick ($11,400) – The hottest driver in NASCAR was issued a hefty penalty from the Las Vegas race. He took it like a champ (he is one, after all) and looks cool on the outside, but I can guarantee you that he’s angry and fired up on the inside. He’s an extremely talented driver at Phoenix and will likely be an option in all formats. How talented? Well, he has 4 wins in the last 8 races here along with an average of 124.25 laps led per race, a driver rating of 130.2, and an average running position of 4.4. What more can I really say?
Martin Truex Jr ($10,900) – Just like at Atlanta, Truex Jr finds himself outside of the dominator conversation. Over the last eight races, his average running position (13.0) has been pretty close to his average finishing position (15.4), and he hasn’t led a single lap. This means his floor and ceiling are both lower than what his salary demands. Unless he starts from the back again, it’s probably best to save him for a different race.
Kyle Busch ($10,500) – While not as dominant as he is in the Xfinity series, he’s had plenty of success here and stands to be a viable option in all formats. If it weren’t for Harvick stealing the show, Kyle might have had a few more wins here.
Kyle Larson ($10,300) – Everything I said about Truex Jr applies to Kyle Larson, but he’s got a little more negativity in his phoenix stats; his average starting position over the last eight races is 6.3, while his average running (13.8) and finishing position (15.1) are much lower. He does have a couple of top 5 finishes mixed in there, but for his price we can do better. Unless he starts from the back, proceed with caution.
Brad Keselowski ($9,900) – He won’t give you many (any) lead laps, but Brad K is a solid top 10 machine at Phoenix. Unlike the Xfinity race, he’s not overly expensive here, and could potentially come with lower ownership depending on how he does at that race.
Chase Ellliott ($9,800) – At Phoenix, he’s basically Kevin Harvick in training. Aside from the wins and ridiculous number of laps led, Chase actually has pretty similar stats to Harvick here. If he can find himself out front, he could very easily lead a significant number of laps. Consider him in all formats.
Joey Logano ($9,500) – Same as Chase, but with a win and more laps led at a $300 discount. Consider him everywhere, too.
Denny Hamlin ($9,200) – As one of the best flat track drivers in the field, he deserves consideration in every format. He’s capable of a single dominator performance (he’s done it twice), so if you run any of those lineups, he could be your guy.
Monster Energy drivers – mid to high tier drivers
Erik Jones ($8,300) – Erik has the 6th best running position of everybody in the field (9.0), which is far lower than the average (28.34) and 3 positions lower than the next guy in line. He doesn’t lead laps, but can snag a few fastest laps and could be a solid cash and sneaky GPP option. How sneaky? Well, he started 9th place last week and somehow found his way into the perfect lineup with around 10% ownership. Very sneaky!
Clint Bowyer ($8,200) – He went from a mediocre top 20 driver to a solid top 10 option last year when he took over the #14 car, and has been doing really well this year. People will look at his average start/finish here and give him a pass, but we know better. Keep an eye on him and hope for a favorable qualifying spot.
Aric Almirola ($8,100) – Same as Bowyer, but he had more success here in the #43 car over the years. He’s turned the #10 car into a rocket ship this year, so keep your eye on him too.
Alex Bowman ($7,900) – Bowman surprised a lot of people last year by leading 194 laps on his way to a solid 6th place finish when he filled in for Dale Jr. Aside from that race, he’s never led a lap here and had a rocky history. Perhaps he’s figured the track out, but either way we’ll need to keep an eye on him to see if we think he has a shot at another strong run. One thing I know for sure though, his ownership will be higher than normal due to that race.
Ryan Newman ($7,700) – Another driver off to a hot start in 2018, Newman has a lot of history at Phoenix (31 races) and is a solid option. He doesn’t lead laps, but he knows how to move up and keep people behind him.
Daniel Suarez ($7,400) – He was a top 5 machine in the Xfinity series here, but has been rocky in the Cup series. This makes him a great GPP candidate because people will look at his numbers and pass him on by…after they’ve filled up their barf bag.
Paul Menard ($7,300) – Pretty much right in the middle of Bowyer and Almirola. He’s taking a liking to his new ride this year, which is a much better car than he was used to. He hasn’t been hit with a big price increase yet, so be sure to take advantage of it this week if the opportunity presents itself. His salary will be close to Almirola’s soon enough.
William Byron ($6,900) – Knows how to go around a flat track and snuck out a win in the Xfinity series here. The HMS garage is a mixed bag right now, but he’s still at least worth a look.
Monster Energy drivers – cheaper/lower tier drivers
Darrell Wallace Jr ($6,600) – Similar to Byron, but without the win. Keep your eye on him though, because he’s definitely more talented than his price tag would indicate.
Ty Dillon ($6,400) – Talked about him earlier. Ty does very well here and is worth looking at in all formats.
Kasey Kahne ($6,200) – Has been doing okay in his new car, but hasn’t had a breakout race yet. Phoenix could be the place he does it. Of the cheap drivers, he has by far the best average running (15.8) and finishing position (17.0). If he has a good run and a little bit of luck is on his side, he has top 15 potential from a 25th or so starting position. Should that happen, he could see north of 40 DKFP for around a 6.5x return, which could land him in a winning lineup. Not a lock, but not a fade either.
Everybody from Trevor Bayne on down – There’s not much success to be found down here. All of these drivers tend to finish where they started or a little worse. If one of the $5k drivers starts dead last, they could become viable. But if they’re anywhere in the mid to low 20’s, pass. Yes, even Chris Buescher. He made us some money last week, but he sucks at Phoenix. Save him for the next 1.5 mile track.
That’s all for now. We get our first practice runs today, so try to watch them if at all possible. The numbers tell us a lot, but there’s always something to learn by watching these drivers practice. See you guys/gals in Slack! @nillyJay
