Welcome back after a week off from MMA. I hope everyone is recharged and ready for this one. It’s not the best card but, we will have to make due. This is the last card we will have this month, after which we will have a solid string of fights in April. Even though I am sure many of you like myself are itching for some DFS MMA always remember bankroll management. I am sure I am sounding like a broken record but try and practice the 80-20 rule. Geek has a great video on bankroll management and how to allocate your contest selection. Odds came out very late this week for a majority of these fights so, be sure to join us in the VIP Slack Chat where we will be discussing the fights as the prop bets come out. Also be sure to check out our MMA Research Station for all the information you will need. Geek and I are planning to do a VIP podcast Friday night. With all these resources you should be covered with everything you need for this card. One last thing. This card is in London so contests lock much earlier than normal. I would hate for any of you to reserve contests and forget about the early start time and have blank lineups.
Before we get started I wanted to congratulate darole6 on taking down first place this past week in the FanDuel $100k Sun NBA Slam winning a cool $20,000 using the Domination Station Optimizer! Check out his big win and others on the DFS Army Wall of Wins!
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Haqparast (-150) 8.3k vs Narimani (+130) 7.9k
Haqparast is a good striker with decent power. Narimani is a solid boxer and a decent wrestler. He is moving up a weight class for this fight. This isn’t a fight you need to target if you are only making a few lineups. This is only a fight I would suggest targeting if you are making more than 10 lineups. I hate being overexposed in the 1st fight of the night especially if I don’t have a strong lean on a winner. My preferred play is Haqparast. He will be at a size advantage and has already had a fight in the UFC. Both are playable in GPP’s. I am just not going to go crazy with having too much exposure to this fight.
Sosnovskiy (-290) 8.7k vs Godbeer (+245) 7.5k
Sosnovskiy is good in the clinch. He has good takedowns (TD’s) and solid ground and pound. Godbeer is an ok striker with decent power. Sosnovskiy is coming into this fight on a three-year layoff. I don’t think the layoff matters here. Godbeer is a poor grappler and very hittable. I think this spells disaster for Godbeer. I don’t see how he wins this fight besides a lucky punch. We have seen how good these Russian fighters are with this sambo background. I like Sosnovskiy in all formats and will more than likely be fading Godbeer completely.
Ray (-185) 8.4k vs Johnson (+160) 7.8k
Ray is a solid striker. He is a decent wrestler with ok TD’s. Johnson is a decent striker. He is solid overall. I honestly don’t know how much exposure I want to this fight. There are other fighters I like in both their price ranges more. I don’t hate the idea of just fading this fight completely to get your fighter pool smaller. Otherwise, if you are maxing out a GPP have very little exposure to both is your safest bet. I personally am leaning towards just fading it and targeting other fights with more upside.
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Ankalaev (-650) 9.2k vs Craig (+475) 7k
Ankalaev is a good striker with big power. He has decent TD’s and good ground and pound. Craig has ok Jiu Jitsu and ok submissions. Don’t let that fool you though Craig hasn’t faced anyone the level of Ankalaev. The odds tell the story here. You are getting great value on Ankalaev. He has the best odds on the card and is the 2nd most expensive fighter. I like him in all formats. I don’t see any realistic ways Craig wins and he is an easy fade for me.
Dawodu (-325) 9.4k vs Henry (+265) 6.8k
Dawodu is a solid striker with good hand speed. Henry is a decent striker and a solid wrestler. He has also shown in previous fights to be fairly tough. Dawodu is the most expensive fighter on the card. I see merit in playing him and fading him. He will be strictly a GPP play for me. Henry is a fighter I am considering as a cash value punt. I don’t necessarily think he wins but, hear me out. If you go down to Henry in cash you are then able to plug 5 favorites into your lineup. I don’t like him in GPP’s as he will most likely lose. In short, Dawodu is in play for GPP’s and Henry is on my radar in cash (pay attention to Slack as my thoughts on this could change).
Roberts (-190) 8.5k vs Enkamp (+165) 7.7k
Roberts is a good boxer. He is decent in the clinch and a solid wrestler. Enkamp is an ok striker with decent kicks. This is a GPP only fight for me. While I do think Roberts wins I just don’t know about his upside at his salary. Enkamp is worth using in 1-2 lineups if you are maxing out a contest. Overall not a fight I will have huge ownership in. My preferred play is Roberts.
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Phillips (-110) 8.9k vs Byrd (-110) 7.3k
Phillips is a solid striker with big power. Byrd is a decent grappler and solid wrestler. This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Phillips has never been tested outside of the 1st round (20 1st round finishes in 21 fights). In cash games, Byrd is an obvious value play. He is been as good as a -120 favorite this week. If his odds hover around where he is he will be very chalky in cash. I don’t mind eating the chalk in cash. He is cheap enough that he opens up so much value up top. In GPP’s I will most definitely have exposure to Phillips. If he wins it will most likely be by 1st Rd finish and he would score well. Just pay attention to odds as we get closer to the fights. In short, Byrd is payable in all formats and Phillips is in play for me in GPP’s.
Edwards (-220) 8.8k vs Sobotta (+180) 7.4k
Edwards is solid all-around. He has decent kicks and is a decent wrestler. Sobotta is solid overall. This is a GPP fight only for me. I will have exposure to both. I am waiting to see the prop bets for this 1 before I decide how I want to attack my ownership in this one. I will have more thoughts in the DFS Army VIP Slack Chat and on our pod regarding this fight.
Duquesnoy (-340) 9.3k vs Ware (+280) 6.9k
Duquesnoy is a solid striker with good leg kicks. He has decent elbows and good knees. Ware is a good boxer. He is fairly tough and lands at a decent volume (just under 5 Significant Strikes per minute). I think both fighters are playable in all formats. It just depends how you construct your lineups. I wouldn’t stack it in cash. Duquesnoy has great odds overall. But, if it doesn’t end early Ware lands at a high enough rate to score enough for his price in cash. Both are in play in tournaments as well. My preferred play overall is Duquesnoy.
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Manuwa (-200) 9k vs Blachowicz (+170) 7.2k
Manuwa is a decent striker with solid power. Blachowicz is a decent striker with ok power. He has decent kicks and a solid TD defense. Even though Manuwa is the favorite I hate the price he is at. There are safer fighters around him in cash games and also fighters around him with more upside as well. Blachowicz is in play for me as a GPP punt. Manuwa is coming into this fight having been knocked out in his last 2 fights. This is more or less a dog or pass fight for me. I can see merit to have Manuwa as a pivot in maybe 1-2 lineups if maxing out a GPP. I wouldn’t bother using him in 3 entry max contests.
Werdum (-185) 8.6k vs Volkov (+160) 7.6k
Werdum is a solid striker with good power. He has a very good ground game and solid submissions. Volkov is an ok striker with decent leg kicks. He is a solid wrestler. If you want to play it safe and stack this fight in cash you can. I don’t think you need to this week though with value in other fights. I love Werdum in all formats. He will most likely be 1 of my highest owned fighters. I will have him in all formats. Seeing as this is the main event I will have some exposure to Volkov as well (just in case). I have a feeling Werdum will have his way in this fight and win pretty convincingly.
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Remember to join us in Slack Chat before and during the fights and keep an eye out for MMA Research Station later today and as always good luck DFS Army!
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