We have another night of UFC fights this Saturday. After that, we will have a week off. This is a solid twelve fight card with some interesting pricing. Not in a bad way per say, I just have some fighters in spots I want to use to take advantage of and others to potentially fade. As always if you are a VIP be sure you take advantage of MMA Research Station plus join all of us in the VIP Slack Chat. If you aren’t a VIP what are you waiting for? Consider grabbing a VIP Subscription today! We have some pretty big news from the MMA front in the next few weeks and trust me you will want to be a part of this.
First I would like to congratulate DFS Army Member harlemking25 on his third-place finish Thursday night in the $400k Thu NBA Shot Machine on FanDuel!
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Let’s get down to breaking down this card.
Johnson (-255) 9.1k vs Milstead (+215) 7.1k
This is a fight I will only have exposure to in GPP’s. Johnson is a former D1 wrestler from Iowa. He is decent in the clinch as well. Milstead is going down a weight class for this fight. He is a decent striker with good power. I like Milstead in tournaments. He is one of the dogs on here I want some exposure to. I like the fact he is moving down a weight class. Johnson is in play as well Milstead showed in his last fight to have a difficult time grappling. I just don’t know how much exposure I want to Johnson with other around him I like more. My preferred play is Milstead for the salary savings.
Stamann (-150) 8.5k vs Caraway (+135) 7.7k
Stamann is a good striker with solid footwork. He is athletic with solid takedowns (TD’s). Caraway is tough and decent all-around. He is a decent wrestler with okay TD’s. I have a pretty strong lean in this fight. I like Stamann in GPP’s. With Caraway coming into this fight on a two-year layoff I will have very little exposure to him if any. In a win Stamann as a solid ceiling. In short Stamann in GPP’s and little to no exposure to Caraway.
Ottow (-300) 8.9k vs Pyle (+250) 7.3k
Ottow is solid all-around. He is a solid striker with good power. Pyle already announced he is retiring after this fight. After hearing that this fight is pretty cut and dry. I like Ottow in all formats. I will most likely be fading Pyle. It’s that easy. I am not saying have 100% exposure to Ottow. But, be sure to have him in some of your lineups.
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Lombard (-135) 8.4k vs Dollaway (+115) 7.8k
This is a GPP fight only for me. Lombard is coming into this fight having lost his last four. He is a decent striker with decent TD defense. Dollaway is a good wrestler with solid TD’s. I will have some exposure to both fighters in GPP’s. If Lombard wins it will be through his striking. If Dollaway wins it will be through his grappling. My lean is Dollaway (Lombard has shown in the past to get tired after the first round). Anything is possible here. I don’t think either are playable in cash. Not a fight to have 100% exposure to but worth targeting both in a few.
Dodson (-160) 8.6k vs Munhoz (+140) 7.6k
Dodson is a good striker with decent power. Munhoz is a tough fighter with solid submissions. I am most likely going to have very little Dodson. Even in wins he doesn’t score highly. Most of his fights go to decisions and he isn’t an active enough striker to score that well if that’s the case. I would rather take a chance on Munoz in GPP’s. If he is able to lock in a submission he will easily exceed value. I will most likely have exposure to both with my preferred play being Munhoz.
Dariush (-400) 9.2k vs Hernandez (+325) 7k
Dariush is a good striker with solid power. He has good leg kicks and is hard to TD. Hernandez is a decent striker with ok power. I like Dariush in all formats. He lands at a high rate of four significant strikes per minute (SS’s). I think Hernandez is worth using as a pivot in 1-2 lineups if you are doing more than twelve lineups. He will be very low owned. Overall my preferred play is Dariush and I will have plenty of exposure to him everywhere.
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Dern (-475) 9k vs Yoder (+380) 7.2k
Dern is making her UFC debut. She has ridiculous Jiu Jitsu and is very good on the ground. Yoder isn’t very good overall. In most of her fights, she likes to take it to the ground. I am fairly confident that the UFC is setting up Dern for the win here. She isn’t the best striker but, neither is Yoder. This should be a grappling based fight and Dern is leaps and bounds ahead of Yoder. Dern is playable in all formats. Yoder is a complete fade for me.
Vieira (-190) 8.3k vs Zingano (+165) 7.9k
Vieira is a decent striker with solid combinations. She has decent TD’s and good cardio. Zingano hasn’t had a fight in over two years. She is strong with solid TD’s. I like Vieira in all formats. I might have Zingano in 1-2 if building more than sixteen lineups. I am finding myself having a smaller fighter pool this week. So I see merit to completely fading her. Vieira is the play here. I am just not sure how much exposure I will have to her.
Struve (-175) 8.8k vs Arlovski (+155) 7.4k
Struve is a decent striker with ok power. He has decent knees and will have a reach advantage. Arlovski is a veteran and now trains at American Top Team (ATT). He is an ok striker with decent power. This is a heavyweight fight so most likely someone is getting KO’D. I am just not sure who. I think the smartest thing to do is have exposure to both. If I had to pick a side it would be Arlovski. Mostly just because of his cheaper salary.
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Soukhamthath (-120) 8.2k vs O’Malley (+100) 8k
Soukhamthath is a decent striker with good power. O’Malley is a good striker with solid power. He is fast and will have a size and reach advantage. I really like O’Malley, especially in cash. For his salary, he has a pretty solid floor for his price. He also has the upside to make him playable in GPP’s as well. Soukhamthath is in play for GPP’s also. Whoever wins her should score well.
Edgar (-165) 8.7k vs Ortega (+145) 7.5k
Edgar is a good striker with solid TD’s. Ortega is a decent striker with very good submissions. I have a strong take on this fight, but will save that info for VIP’s. Just one of the advantages to having a VIP subscription.
Cyborg (-1750) 9.7k vs Kunitskaya (+1125) 6.5k
Cyborg is a good striker with big power. Kunitskaya is a solid striker. The odds tell the story here. Cyborg is playable anywhere. I don’t know where my roster construction will end up. There is merit to fading her in either format to allow you safer or more upside fighters overall. Kunitskaya is only playable in cash games. Just because she allows you to get 4-5 favorites in your lineup.
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Don’t forget to keep an eye out for our MMA pod with Geek and myself and the MMA Research Station. Otherwise, see you in Slack. Good Luck Army!
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