Hello Army! Welcome to the inaugural edition of Calming the Chaos. NASCAR DFS can be tricky and intimidating, so these articles will aim to help you construct and correlate your lineups. Before diving in, please be sure to read my beginner guides if you haven’t already. If you have a question about something not related to a specific driver, chances are it was already addressed. If not, hit me up in Slack @nillyJay and let’s discuss it!
NASCAR BEGINNER’S GUIDE – NASCAR INTERMEDIATE GUIDE
BANKROLL MANAGEMENT – CASH LADDERS
In these articles, I will go over what my research is finding, how I plan to approach each race, lineup construction/correlation, cash/GPP considerations, drivers I am keeping a close eye on, etc. I will include both the Xfinity and Monster Energy Series races.
I will have these articles ready mid-week after salaries have been released and plan to have one every week (except for plate races and the all-star break). After qualifyin, I will put together my picks/pivots/fades and have that list available in Slack.
Atlanta Motor Speedway – 2/24/18 – 2/25/18
We head to Atlanta for the first 1.5-mile intermediate track of the season. While we do have a few uncertainties (the new Camaro, drivers on new teams, the new inspection system, etc.), I believe we know enough to determine who the cash safe drivers will be and there will be plenty of newer players with no guidance making poorly constructed lineups.
I have no problem rolling out cash ladders this week, and depending on how qualifying turns out I think this could also be one of the better GPP races of the season. Instead of being worried about the uncertainties, I want us to use them to our advantage. Let’s first break down the numbers:
We have a fairly common setup for Atlanta with a slightly above average lap count. In 6 of the last 8 races here, one driver led a large portion of the laps while the rest were split up among a handful of other drivers. Since we can’t afford 4-5 dominators in one lineup, I’ll look to roster two dominators to get the majority of the lead laps. In the Xfinity race, however, we might be able to just use one since the race is only half as long.
From there we need to decide how we want to build. If we can get a large chunk of lead laps with a couple dominators, we’ll have four slots to load up on place differential and finishing position. This sort of balanced lineup is pretty standard for these types of tracks and tends to shine at Atlanta.
In the last 8 races, only a very small number of cars that started 30th or worse finished much better than that. Slower cars tend to get locked down fairly quickly here and I think everyone will be a little more cautious after the wild Daytona weekend, so the only drivers I want from the back will be those in fast cars who can quickly move up to avoid getting lapped.
Key driver of the week
Kevin Harvick – This is one of Harvick’s best tracks. He leads all Xfinity drivers in nearly every category and has averaged over 120 laps led in his last 12 races here. Last year he dominated and led a whopping 292 laps in the Monster Energy race, but gave up the win on a bonehead speeding penalty with 16 laps to go. I can guarantee that’s on his mind as I type this, and I expect to see him at his best this weekend.
Xfinity drivers
Salaries are a bit tight this week. The more expensive drivers are pretty obvious, so the key will be finding the right low/medium tiered ones. First, the expensive guys:
Joey Logano – As the only other stud in this race, he’ll be a popular choice. He doesn’t lead laps at Atlanta though, so he’ll have to find value in other ways.
Ty Dillon – Ty has had a pretty nice history at Atlanta with three top 10’s in his last four attempts in the Xfinity series. He’s a survivor who will likely finish strongly on the lead lap.
Elliott Sadler / Justin Allgaier – These guys offer a safe floor, but their ceiling will depend on where they qualify because they are very unlikely to lead laps.
Christopher Bell – Bell is a talented driver that does well at Atlanta; he led 99 laps on his way to a victory at last year’s race in the truck series. While I don’t see him taking any laps away from Harvick, he could return value elsewhere. We’ll see how qualifying goes.
Daniel Hemric / Cole Custer – Last year they both had a low DNF rate and completed over 93% of laps in 33 starts. They should see a finish between 10th and 15th.
Mid-tier/value Xfinity drivers
Because salaries are tight and lead laps will likely be locked up, we’re going to need to find value priced place differential + finishing position. Fortunately, those lead laps should mostly come from one driver, so we shouldn’t have to go dumpster diving to build a solid lineup.
We’ll only have a few hours to make lineups, so be sure to be available Saturday morning if you want to play Xfinity this week! I’ll have my list of picks together as soon as I can, and we can all discuss things in Slack. For now, let’s take a look at a few of these more affordable drivers:
Chase Briscoe – Briscoe had a really good 2017 season in the truck series; 14 top 10’s, 10 top 5’s, and a win at Miami. He definitely has talent. On paper, his worst race came at Atlanta where he finished 25th (3 laps down). That happened due to a long pit stop and a tire going flat just as the race restarted. He looked sharp otherwise, so I have no problem going here.
Austin Cindric – Almost exactly the same scenario as above. He had 16 top 10’s, 8 top 5’s, and a win at Bowmanville in his 2017 campaign. He had a nice run going at Atlanta until somebody came down on him and cut a tire near the end of the race, causing him to place 21st. He’s another talented driver to keep an eye on.
Brandon Jones – Jones didn’t have a very good season last year, but he has had a couple of solid runs at Atlanta with an average finishing & place differential of 12.5. I like him in GPP if he starts around 20th or worse, but his 21% DNF rate and tendency to finish worse than he started makes him too volatile for cash unless he starts very far back.
Kaz Grala – Kaz will be the new driver of the #24 for 2018. This year they get a nice upgrade in a partnership with Roush Fenway. The old car was capable of top 20’s with random drivers and Kaz finished 15th in his truck series Atlanta debut, so he should be a solid choice.
Xfinity GPP thoughts
Joey Logano –This is how I envision this race playing out: Harvick gets the pole and winds up leading most (if not all) of the laps. Logano qualifies and finishes in the top 10 somewhere with a solid floor but also with a severely limited ceiling. People will likely automatically roster these two with some punts, but I think we can find cheaper drivers with a similar or higher ceiling than Logano will have. I’m not saying go nuts fading him, but I think it would be worth it to run some Harvick-only lineups this week!
Xfinity traps
Jeff Green / Josh Williams – People will probably look at their price/average DKFP and think they are getting a tremendous value play. Please don’t be one of them. There’s a good chance they start the race and just park after a few laps, but even if they actually participate you’re looking at drivers with a probable finish of 30+. Green’s best racing days were in the late 1990’s to early 2000’s, and Williams has never raced at Atlanta at a professional level. There should be enough value in the mid-range that we don’t need to dig this deep.
Monster Energy drivers
I’m pretty happy with how salaries turned out for Monster Energy drivers. There are several that are underpriced that should have a good race (mainly in the $6-$7k range), so it shouldn’t be difficult to pay up for studs in good spots this week.
Drivers not named Kevin Harvick– With how dominant Harvick has been here lately, nobody else has been able to lead a lot of laps. We’ll have to keep an eye on practice to see if anyone looks to be able to take some of those lead laps away.
Martin Truex Jr – MTX was the king of 1.5-mile tracks last season, and he has a solid resume at Atlanta. In the last six races here he’s had five top 10 finishes, so he’ll likely be a solid cash option. He’s only led 277 laps here in 19 races though (less than 15 per race average), so like the other studs, his ceiling will likely be limited by his starting position.
Jimmie Johnson – Atlanta is one of the 48’s better tracks. He’s the leader among active drivers in top 5’s, top 10’s, and average finish (11.0). He has completed 98.74% of laps with a mere two DNF’s over 26 races here. He should be especially fired up since he went through three cars at Daytona and he will want to be the first Hendrick driver to put the new Camaro into victory lane. Consider him in all formats, especially at his relatively low price.
Chase Elliott – In his four races at Atlanta (two in each series), Chase has an average finish of 5.75 with a driver rating of 110.92. He’ll be a good cash option but will need to qualify poorly to be considered for GPP, because he’s not taking away lead laps from Harvick.
Kyle Busch – Kyle tends to do better here the worse he qualifies. If we get a poor qualifying effort from him, I’ll be interested in all formats. If not, I’ll probably look elsewhere.
Kyle Larson – Larson has done well at Atlanta in various formats. He always has the capability to go off and lead a ton of laps on his way to victory lane, so try to find some exposure even if he isn’t the main focus of your lineups.
Denny Hamlin– Denny is a mixed bag at Atlanta, and I can only recommend GPP exposure unless he qualifies very poorly. Over his last 6 races, he’s averaged around 15.33 DKFP with a range of about -28 to 78.25. Three times he finished 38th (engine, rear end, and a wreck) and only once did he break 100 laps led. He’s a hit or miss play here.
Kurt Busch – Kurt seems to like rough and gritty races, and Atlanta is no exception. He’s usually a good cash option here and has GPP potential as well. He’s the kind of non-dominator that I’m willing to pay up for at a race like this.
Kasey Kahne – This is one of Kahne’s best tracks, but I think he will go under-owned since he’s no longer in a Hendrick car. Two things make me not afraid to fire him up in all formats; McDowell had no problem performing well in this car last year, and Kahne has already taken two different manufacturers to victory lane here. Kahne is revitalized and very happy with his new team, and I think he’s way too cheap at a mere $6,200!
Darrell Wallace Jr – Bubba has shown he deserves to be in the #43 on the biggest stage. He did well in three Xfinity races with an average finish of 11.67. I expect more of the same and will look to use him in all formats, especially since he too is underpriced at only $6,300.
Aric Almirola / Paul Menard – Both of these guys have had decent success at Atlanta in their old rides and appear to have really taken a liking to their new ones. They have potential to be viable in all formats, so keep an eye on where they qualify. I especially like Menard’s price. Do not sleep on these two!
Ty Dillon – Same as the Xfinity race, but much more affordable here.
Trevor Bayne– T-Bayne is basically a more volatile version of Ty Dillon here. I’m more interested in him for GPP, but we’ll see how he does in practice/qualifying.
Punts – I feel the same way about them here as I do at the Xfinity level; I don’t want them, so I’ll only take them if I absolutely have to.
That’s all for now. Remember that these drivers are not auto-locks by any means, this is just to get you started on your research. Qualifying is king and can open new doors just as easily as it can close others. Also, don’t that we have a short turnaround for Xfinity between qualifying and when the race starts, so make sure you’re available Saturday morning if you are playing! Be sure to check out the other NASCAR articles and keep an eye on Slack as we approach the green flag. See you all there!
