Welcome back my little cubs! Lets jump into tonight slate:
Notes main slate 1/16/18
Min/Orl- This game has the highest total points combined at 217.5 with the Wolves favored by 8.5. I think this game goes overlooked with the primetime Pelicans vs Celtics matchup and the Suns-Blazers game right after (second highest total). For the Wolves, I LOVE a few plays here. First, my cash game STAPLE and safest play goes to Jimmy G. Buckets…the G stands for gets. The Magic have an aDVP of1.108 at the SF spot and Jimmy does a little bit of everything for the Wolves. Andrew Wiggins also has a great matchup, but, might be bothered by Jonathan Simmons size making Wiggins a jump shooting threat only. He’s a bit riskier for me. Taj Gibson is my second cash play of this game and can also be used in GPP. By now, we know the skills the big KAT has in his arsenal. He is my second best center play of the night. Gorgui Dieng is only $3,700 (FD) and can be a nice value play tonight. He enjoys the same aDVP that Taj does. Nemanja Bjelica has been seeing his minutes trend up and makes for a decent GPP punt play.
Magic- I like Elf for GPPs. He has tremendous upside, but, has been very hit or miss. If you are looking to pay down at Center I like Biyombo in the mid-range at $6,400 (FD). He gets the soft defense of KAT and is a rebound and shot blocking machine that plays over 28 minutes a night. He’s a safe play. Those are the only two Magic I want to target tonight. If you are entering multiple entries into a tournament you can take a shot at Aaron Gordon as his matchup is neutral and he can turn it on at any given moment.
NOP/BOS- This game has a total of 214 with the Celts favored by 5.5. This game will garner a ton of attention as Rondo is coming back to the GAHHDEN! You can play Rondo in tournaments, but, I do not trust him in cash formats. The guard I love for the Pelicans in this game is Jrue Holiday. Jrue gets a nice aDVP matchup and has some fantastic upside. AD will be an absolute monster in this game and should see a ton of shots and post ups. The only place I will look to attack the Celtics is down low. The Pels have two monsters in AD and Boogie. Fire them up.
Celtics- The Celtics have some great matchups we should target. Starting with Kyrie Irving. He is a great cash game play and can be played in GPPs as well. The guy I LOVE in this game is Jaylen Brown. He will have a FANTASTIC matchup and plenty of opportunities to produce. Fire him up in all formats. Al Horford will have his hand full with AD (FD has him as C) and will be needed to play as much as he can handle. He’s in play for tournaments. The Celtics will need to play all the bigs they have to guard the twin towers and this means more minutes for Aron Baynes. Baynes is $3,800 (FD) and should see a decent amount of minutes if he stays out of foul trouble.
Dal/Den- The total here is 210 and Denver are favored by 6 points. There are a TON of plays here that I want to get my hands on. Harrison Barnes is a safe cash game play. He is heavily leaned on in Dallas to score and he gets plenty of peripheral stats as well. My second favorite play here is Dennis Smith Jr. With JJ Barea likely to miss this game DSJ will be the teams only true PG. I will be staying away from Yogi Ferrell tonight as he will have to deal with the defense of Gary Harris. I’m fading him completely. I will be playing Dirk Nowitzki as I love how many shots he will get. I can see the Mavs playing a lot of Dwight Powell (only $3,900 on FD) to matchup with Trey Lyles. He’s a GPP punt play as is Devin Harris. Devin will be the teams only SG on the bench and will have a TON of second unit usage.
Nuggets- My top Center for the night is Nikola Jokic (say it in the Ricola commercials tone NIIIIIIKOLAAAAAAA). The Mavs are giving up a ton of points to the center and PF position and Jokic has elite upside. He’s in play in all formats and on all sites for me. Jamal Murray is the second Nuggets player I like here. He should see tons of minutes and gets to go up against a shorthanded backcourt that isn’t good on the defensive end, to begin with. His upside makes him good for both formats. I am also targeting Trey Lyles here. Mason Plumlee is a bit beat up and I don’t see him playing much alongside Jokic. This leaves more minutes for Lyles. He’s been Mr. Consistency and is good for both formats. If you are looking for a cheap SF play from this game you can look to Wilson Chandler in GPPs. He will get upwards of 25 minutes and has one of the best matchups on the slate per our aDVP.
Pho/Por- Second highest points total on the slate at 216.5 with the Blazers favored by 11. I want to do a little something different here. Let’s look at some game theory so we can start using this on our own. This game is highly favored towards Portland. If the game ends up being close and you roster players from this game (GPP only) you will have an edge over the field as they will fade this game in fear of a blowout. If the game does end up being a yawner you now have tons of value plays to pick from. So here is what the game theory looks like: LU 1 close game. I will roster Booker since if it’s a close game he must be going nuts. Along with Len and maybe Canaan. I will also roster the Blazers studs, Dame, CJ, Nurk etc.. LU 2 will be the opposite. Assuming it gets ugly I will fade Booker and go Josh Jackson (blowout proof), Pat Connaughton (Blazers are down a guard so he will play more anyway), and maybe Noah Vonleh. Again THIS IS ONLY FOR TOURNAMENT GAME THEORY! This is not remotely viable in cash formats.
That’s all for this short slate. If you want access to more articles, the industries best DFS tools and a private slack chat with #the-Bear-Cave-NBA channel where you can access me anytime you want sign up at www.DFSARMY.com/ref/35 and use the code “Bear” at checkout and receive 10% off.
Good luck tonight, Army!