Welcome to another Saturday night of UFC fights. We have a solid card top to bottom here. There aren’t that many huge favorites this week, which leads to some very interesting pricing on DraftKings. Make sure you see how fighters look on the scale at weigh ins. Being a DFS Army VIP member will give you a leg up on the field I think this card. Not only will you have my up to the minute thoughts on the card but, we also have some of the best DFS MMA minds in the industry discussing the card. We are also introducing our new MMA Research Station this week available to all of our VIP members. Also be sure to check out the Knockout VIP MMA Podcast with myself, FFootballGeek, and Big Marley! DFS Army VIP members have a leg up on the competition. See how DFS Army VIP Member DBarlow87 won $250,000 in NFL on FanDuel this season using our VIP tools and content. Let’s get down to breaking down this quality card.
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Makhachev (-250) 9.1k vs Tibau (+210) 7.1k
Makhachev is a good grappler with solid takedowns landing at five takedown’s per fight (He trains with Khabib, enough said). He is a decent counter-striker and is good in the clinch. Tibau is coming off a two-year layoff from a drug suspension. He is a solid grappler with decent TD’s. The big stat with Tibau is he has a 90% TD defense over his career. Overall this is a fight I most likely have much exposure to. Both are worth shots in GPP’s. I can see this possibly being a low scoring fight as they could both neutralize their wrestling. Personally, I am only targeting either fighter in contests where I am making more than 10-12 lineups.
Barzola (-235) 8.7k vs Bessette (+195) 7.5k
Barzola is a solid wrestler with good takedowns and solid leg kicks. Bessette is taking this fight on short notice. He is an aggressive fighter with decent power. He is decent on the ground. I really like Barzola in this spot. I like his TD upside and while he might not be able to hold Bessette. I do think Barzola as the ability to take him down multiple times in this fight and rack up DraftKings points that way. I do think Bessette is worth a shot in larger field tournaments just in case he is able to catch Barzola with something. Overall my preferred play is Barzola.
Arce (-150) 8.6k vs Ige (+130) 7.6k
I wasn’t able to find a ton of footage on either fighter. Arce looks like a decent striker with decent leg kicks. Ige looks like a good wrestler with decent TD’s. He also is a decent striker and is solid overall. Ige looks like the better fighter overall so I give the lean to him as who I will target more. I don’t think either is safe in cash, but will likely have some exposure to Ige at his cheaper salary. Arce, I most likely won’t have much of. There are other fighters I like more in that price range.
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Pantoja (-125) 8.5k vs Ortiz (+105) 7.7k
Pantoja is a decent striker with good leg kicks. He has solid power and decent submissions. Ortiz is a good grappler and solid in the clinch. He also has decent TD’s (2.5 TD’s per 3 rds). One thing I did notice with Pantoja is he often times shoots in for submissions and puts himself in vulnerable spots. Not something that would be good to try against Ortiz. Both fighters are in play for GPP’s. I also can see merit to using Ortiz in cash as a value play.
Alhassan (-200) 9k vs Homasi (+170) 7.2k
This is the second time these two have faced each other. Alhassan put up a solid score in the first meeting. Alhassan is a decent striker with good power. He is also a decent grappler. Homasi is a decent striker with ok power. He also has a history of getting KO’d in many of his fights. I don’t think much has changed since the last fight. I like Alhassan in all formats and will only be using Homasi in a few lineups that I am fading Alhassan in.
Davis (-130) 8.1k vs Bochniak (+110) 8.1k
Davis is from the show “Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series”. He is a solid striker with good leg kicks. Granted this is from the show, but on their, he landed at 8 SS’s (significant strikes) per minute. Bochniak is fighting in his hometown here. He is solid overall. He is a decent striker with solid TD’s. While Bochniak does have upside with TD’s I am not sure he will be able to get the fight to the ground. I love the upside with Davis if he lands anywhere close to that rate of strikes. He is my preferred play in GPP’s. Obviously, I will have some exposure to Bochniak as well. Also as long as odds stay where they are or improve I don’t hate using Davis in cash.
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Almeida (-120) 8.2k vs Font (+100) 8k
This is a great fight to target in tournaments!. Almeida is a good striker (6 SS’s) with good knees. He also has solid combinations when he puts them together. Font is another hometown fighter here. He is decent overall. He is a solid striker (5 SS’s) and decent TD’s. Font normally comes out fast in the 1st round looking for a quick finish (Almeida has shown in the past he can get tagged early). If Font doesn’t get the early finish Almeida should be able to take control the longer the fight goes. I will definitely have exposure to both fighters. My preferred play is Almeida I think he has a higher ceiling, but don’t ignore Font at least have him in a few lineups.
Villante (-155) 8.8k vs Barroso (+135) 7.4k
If you are looking to fade a fight on this card this is the one I would consider fading. Both of these fighters have poor cardio. So either it’s a quick finish or it gets ugly and low scoring.
Villante is a decent striker with ok power. Barroso isn’t very good anywhere. He also throws at a very low rate. I just don’t see merit to investing much in this fight with better plays out there.
Burgos (-190) 8.4k vs Kattar (+165) 7.8
Burgos is a good striker with solid power. Kattar is a solid striker with decent TD’s. Most of his wins come via decision. I think this is a good fight to target both sides of in GPP’s. Going off of just odds alone Burgos is playable in all formats. You don’t need to force him in but if your salary works out I like it. I worry about Kattar’s upside so I do see using him in a few lineups, but is definitely fadable.
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Cormier (-325) 9.2k vs Oezdemir (+295) 7k
This is the first of two title fights on the card. With this being a potential five round fight a stack in cash is in play. Cormier is a good wrestler with solid TD’s. Oezdemir is an aggressive fighter with good power. Both are playable in GPP’s. Cormier has the upside through wrestling and Oezdemir has his via a quick finish. Not much more to it than that.
Ngannou (-175) 8.9k vs Miocic (+165) 7.3k
This is the main event. He has the big boys here in a potential five round war. Although in heavyweights a stoppage is more than likely going to happen. This is also stackable in cash (To find out my preferred stack join in Slack). I also have some different strategies to consider in GPP’s that I want to save for our VIP’s. I want our VIP’s to have some good leverage plays on this card.
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Any other questions reach out to me in slack. Also, keep a lookout for our new MMA Research Station and be sure to listen to the Knockout VIP MMA Podcast! Good Luck Army!
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