Before we get started we need to give huge congratulations to DFS Army Member “kdmyrick71”, for taking down the Monday NBA Clutch Shot for a smooth $100,000. This is our third member in the last 40-days to win over $50,000! We have had a $53,000 winner in NBA, a $150,000 winner in NFL, and this $100,000 win in NBA. The DFS Army helmets are up and down the standings across all DFS platforms and our membership is closing in on 2,000 because of it. We have enormous momentum, no doubt about it.
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NBA DFS is a different kind of beast. Studs can outright win you a GPP with a massive performance and value plays can be brought to light just minutes before contest lock time due to late scratches or breaking news. It isn’t for the faint of heart and the most dedicated researchers and news followers will have a significant edge over the field. This column will be loaded with valuable research, metrics, and analysis on how to use this information in your contests.
On this massive slate filled with incredible options at every position, we are going to have to plant our flag somewhere or else we will end up with 100 different lineups and try to cover every possible combination possible. While MME is an option for many of our members, this article will be directed towards those that are going to make only a handful of lineups and run a few locked players through our optimizer (Domination Station) which keeps churning out ENORMOUS winners.
Let’s get to work!
Guards
Russell Westbrook – Mr. Triple Double has been on another level over the last two games, turning in 65-plus points on both FanDuel and DraftKings in both outings. He attempted 27-shots last game against the Warriors and likely won’t take that many against the Pistons. His usage sits at 33.81% and I actually think he might struggle to get to 50 fantasy points tonight. I am mentioning here in my picks column because I think he’s an easy fade after his explosion on primetime television against Kevin Durant.
Dennis Schroder – Surprisingly, his 30.58% usage rate is the second highest by all point guards on the entire slate. The Hawks face the Knicks in what should be a very competitive game in which the Hawks are a 2.5 point underdog.
Kyrie Irving – The Celtics have a 108.25 implied team total and Irving’s 29.82% usage rate is the third highest at the point guard position. He has an elite ceiling and is a fantastic “ladder system” play. The ladder system is our investment strategy we teach all of our members to use in order to maximize their ROI. Sorry, I can’t give out everything in our free articles!
Goran Dragic – I love his FanDuel price tag on Friday against the Timberwolves. The Wolves have been terrible on defense this season and in a pace-up game, Dragic could easily exceed value. However, I think using him in cash games might be the savvy move and if he does happen to explode then we can just enjoy the fact that he raised our scoring floor and we likely will cash out.
Kyle Lowry – His 22.29% usage rate is not indicative of how high his ceiling is on Friday. Without a quality backup point guard and in a pace-up game against a terrible defensive team, the Indiana Pacers, Lowry has a chance to go buck wild. He has scored over 40-points in four of the last five games. He’s my favorite point guard on the slate and someone I plan on locking into our Domination Station Optimizer.
Devin Booker – His 30.10% usage rate is the second highest at the shooting guard position. The Suns have an implied total of 111.75 points and if they near or exceed that total, Booker likely had a huge game. He has had a usage rate over 31.30% in four of the last five games and has taken 24-plus shots in three of the last five. The Suns definitely win the battle in the paint but Booker could keep this game competitive from the outside.
Tim Hardaway Jr. – Boy was he bad to start the season and it seems that the DFS sites still remember how poorly he was and still haven’t raised his price to proper value levels. In four of his last seven games, THJ has scored over 40.70 fantasy points and twice reached between 54-60. He has an elite ceiling, takes a ton of shots and three-pointers, and has a solid matchup against the Hawks. If we were to use THJ and Booker we could be locking in 25 field goal attempts between our two shooting guards on FanDuel.
Jeremy Lamb – He will be a plug and play if Nicolas Batum is ruled out on Friday. Lamb has a healthy 23.80% usage rate this season and his price is suppressed because the news about Batum possibly missing didn’t come out until after the pricing was set.
Marco Belinelli – In six of the last seven games, Belinelli has met or exceeded value. He has cleared 30 fantasy points in three of those games. He is not cash viable, as he is pretty shot dependant, but while he is feeling it from the outside and racking up a few steals per game he is a viable salary saving GPP option.
We recently had a $53,333 NBA win by a DFS Member on FanDuel. It’s not as high as Monday’s $100,000 win, but it’s still excellent. If you’d like to read about this AMAZING win and a few other five and six-figure wins, go ahead and click this link and enjoy!
Forwards
LeBron James – He’s the “IT” factor of the main slate on Friday. I firmly believe that he could go off for 75-plus fantasy points at home against Charlotte with Batum likely out. He’s rested and is already averaging 37 minutes and a 31.31% usage rate over the last month. With fresh legs and a competitive game, the sky is the limit for LBJ.
EDIT* Batum was just ruled OUT. Jeremy Lamb is a plug and play at the SG position and James just became my favorite player on the entire slate. Much like Thon Maker was on Wednesday, James is as close as it gets to being an absolute LOCK for me when running our Domination Station Optimizer.
Paul George – It is mind-boggling that PG13 has had only one game above a 28% usage rate over the last six games. As a matter of fact, four of the games he stayed between 20.85% and 24.18% for a usage rate. This just goes to show just how efficient he has been over this game span. He has managed to score above 50 fantasy points in four of the last six games, including a 70 point game against the Clippers to start this hot run. He has an elite ceiling and comes at a discount.
If fading LBJ, George should be locked into the SF position. Don’t get too cute and fade them both because you’ll likely be missing out on the highest scoring duo at the position tonight and quite possibly the entire slate if fading James.
Josh Jackson – Over the last month, Jackson actually has the second highest usage rate of any small forward not named Kevin Durant or LeBron James. The problem is that he only has averaged 19.50 Min/G. He’s a low floor high ceiling player at his price tag that could return 30-plus points or sink a lineup with a single digit effort. He’s GPP viable for only the largest field tournaments.
John Collins – I love that he is center eligible on DraftKings and I plan on plugging him in there and not thinking twice about it. I am not a fan of the center position tonight so Collins could end up being my only “center” on DK. Luke Babbit has already been ruled out and Collins will get the start for the third straight game.
Kristaps Porzingis – His 33.29% usage rate is the highest on the slate for Friday. The Hawks won’t be able to slow him down and he should provide a fantastic high floor/high ceiling option. He’s a great play in all formats, including our ladder system.
Carmelo Anthony – I think tonight is the night to fade Westy, as highlighted above. If so, then who stands to benefit the most of Westy not being a superhero? I obviously think PG13 will benefit but I also think Melo should have his way with the Pistons who really struggle against opposing Power Forwards. Melo has a 24.60% usage rate over the past month and is averaging 31.10 Min/G. The Thunder have a 105.75 implied total which should largely come from their “Big Three”.
Thaddeus Young – He’s always one of my favorite cash game options because he has a relatively high floor because he can fill up the peripheral stats. His 17.14% usage rate leaves a lot to be desired which leaves him to cash game viable only.
Bobby Portis – The Warriors likely will blow the roof off of the Oracle Arena as the weak and feeble Bulls visit on Friday. If so, Portis should get ample run during garbage time and I believe he has the opportunity to 7-8x his salary value on FanDuel.
If you didn’t know, we had a huge win in NFL this season too. You can read about that gem in this link!
Centers
DeMarcus Cousins – His 33.56% usage rate is the highest over the past four weeks and he has a delicious matchup against the reckless and sloppy Pheonix Suns. If there is anybody that has the scoring ceiling to rival LeBron James on this slate it would be DMC.
Kevin Love – He continues to pay off his salary value and has a great matchup against Dwight Howard, who will really struggle to stretch out to the perimeter against Love and could easily pick up a couple of quick fouls against an aggressive LeBron James driving to the basket. Love is a great cash game center for Friday’s slate but I likely wouldn’t play him and LeBron in the same lineup unless I ran it back with Jeremy Lamb and Kemba Walker for a large field GPP.
Oops, I have said too much. That type of analysis and strategy is normally kept to our Slack channel (41,000 WEEKLY messages between the 1,500 members and 19 staff that we have logged into Slack).
I am so excited to be providing content for the NBA season and I will see you all in Slack chat #dailydonuts #nfl-talk and #nba-talk. You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I post my daily articles and love to interact with my followers.
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