Welcome to another Saturday night of UFC fights. Finally, we have a good size card with 13 fights. With so many close fights this is definitely a card to practice good bankroll management. I personally always follow the 80/20 rule (80% cash games, 20% GPP’s). DFS Army VIP Members remember to check out the MMA Research Station when constructing your lineups. Also, as always reach out to me in the #MMA-Talk Slack Channel with any questions you may have and be sure to follow me on Twitter! Without further delay let’s break down these fights.
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Roberson (-225) 8.8k vs Stewart (+185) 7.4k
This is looking like mainly a GPP fight. Roberson has good kicks and elbows. He also hits with fairly good power. He looked very impressive in his last fight. The main issue is it only lasted 1 Rd. So, I just haven’t seen enough of him to trust in cash games. Stewart likes to work in the clinch, where he will try and take his opponent down. He is a decent wrestler. I will have exposure to both fighters in tournaments. My preferred play is Roberson. But, be sure to have a few shares of Stewart if building more then 10-12 lineups. Because if he does win it will most likely be wrestling based and would score very well for his price.
Fortuna (-240) 8.6k vs Collier (+200) 7.6k
Fortuna has ok power. Where he is especially dangerous is on the ground. He is a solid wrestler with a decent submission game. He also has good cardio, so the longer this fight lasts the stronger he gets. Collier isn’t really great anywhere. He very often will start off the 1st Rd very quickly. I am not loving this fight in cash games. I don’t mind either fighter in tournaments. My only concern with Fortuna is if this fight goes to dec, he might not score enough for his salary. Collier, I don’t mind as a low exposure punt. Just be prepared for him more than likely to lose. But as we witnessed last weekend. Anything can happen in MMA.
Strickland (-275) 8.7k vs McGee (+235) 7.5k
Strickland is a good striker with a solid jab. His main Achilles heel is his poor takedown defense. McGee isn’t really great anywhere. He is a very scrappy fighter. He isn’t easily finished and has shown to have good cardio. This fight looks to be a very low scoring decision. I will most likely be fading it or have very limited exposure to either fighter.
Hill (-190) 9k vs Ansaroff (+165) 7.2k
Hill is a solid striker. She also has solid kicks. She has been taken down fairly easily in the past. Ansaroff is a tough fighter. What I do like about her in this fight is she will have a size advantage. I don’t mind either as a play. Hill I would lean more as a GPP play (mainly because her last few fights she hadn’t scored highly). Ansaroff I don’t mind in any format for salary savings.
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Northcutt (-170) 8.5k vs Quinones (+150) 7.7k
First off let me start off by saying Northcutt is not a very good fighter period. If the fight isn’t going the way he wants it to go very early he tends to quit. Not literally quit. He just puts himself in bad spots and is very quick to tap. He has also shown to have a fairly weak chin. Quinones is a solid striker. He also has very good body kicks. He isn’t that great on the ground. This fight should mainly stay upright the majority of the time. I love Quinones in all formats. Just be prepared for him to be pretty popular with Northcutt’s recent history. If you are building more then 10-12 lineups, it might be worth it to take 1 stab with Northcutt. Just based on the fact he will be super low owned.
Suarez (-300) 9.2k vs Pereira (+250) 7k
Suarez is currently 4-0. She is coming off of almost a 2 year lay off from having ACL surgery. She is a solid wrestler with decent submissions. Pereira is 13-0. She is solid overall. She is a good striker and will definitely have the advantage if this fight stays standing. She is a tough fighter and has decent TD defense. I don’t mind Suarez has a GPP play. She won’t be very popular in that price range with more popular fighters around her. I really like Pereira in this spot. She is the dog but, has more in-ring experience. She is a solid play in all formats.
Dodson (-110) 8.3k vs Moraes (-110) 7.9k
Dodson is a very quick fighter. He has good power. He also has solid jabs and likes to come in and out throwing combinations together. Moraes has solid leg kicks. He does have a poor chin if he gets tagged. This fight is GPP only for me currently. It is likely to go to dec and I think it might end up being low scoring. My preferred play is Dodson, he has just shown in the past few fights that he doesn’t score highly from a DK pts perspective.
Guida (-125) 8.1k vs Lauzon (+100) 8.1k
Guida is a good wrestling with a solid grappling game. He isn’t easy to finish and has a good gas tank. Lauzon has solid takedowns with decent submissions. The big knock on him is, if he doesn’t get the finish in the 1st Rd he will gas very quickly. I really like targeting this fight in tournaments. I think you need exposure to both. My slight lean is Guida because of his grappling upside.
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Assuncao (-335) 9.3k vs Lopez (+275) 6.9k
Assuncao is good everywhere. He is very hard to take down and land any strikes on period. Lopez is a solid wrestler with a good grappling game. While I do think Assuncao wins this fight, I hate his salary. Its very possible this goes to dec and if that’s the case he defiantly won’t reach value on his salary. Lopez is an ok salary saver. I personally don’t find myself needing to go this low currently.
Ferreira (-290) 9.1k vs Marquardt (+245) 7.1k
Ferreira is a very good grappler. He is also solid on the ground with good submissions. He doesn’t have the best chin though. Marquardt is a veteran in the UFC. He is a decent wrestler. He has decent power and is a decent striker. I probably won’t have too much exposure to Ferreira just based on his salary. Marquardt, I don’t mind as a GPP punt. Overall this is primarily a fight I will mainly target in GPP’s.
Albini (-330) 8.9k vs Arlovski (+270) 7.3k
Albini is a solid striker. He has good body kicks to go along with his dangerous knees. Arlovski is coming into this fight having lost 5 fights in a row. He has also shown recently to have a glass jaw. I love Albini in all formats period. If you want to make an extreme GPP dart play you could use Arlovski. I just don’t know if I will go there.
Brown (-355) 9.4k vs Sanchez (+295) 6.8k
Brown will come into this fight with the size advantage. He has solid jabs to go along with his good knees and elbows. The only issue I have is he can get hurt with body kicks. Sanchez is moving up a weight class for this fight. He has solid body kicks. He just has a history of grinding and taking fights to decisions. I think Brown is a good play in cash and GPPs (if you can afford him). Sanchez, I might have a small amount of if I am running more then 16 lineups.
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Pettis (-120) 8.2k vs Poirier (+100) 8k
First off this is the main event and a 5 rd fight. I really like the idea of stacking it in cash. It’s very likely the combined score of these 2 will be over 120+ pts.
Pettis has solid kicks with a very good guard. He is also good with submissions. Poirier is a tough fighter. He has very big power, especially in his hands. He can sometimes get a bit crazy with his strikes. I will have very heavy exposure to this fight in tournaments. Poirier is my preferred target. But will have shares of Pettis as well.
Good luck everyone, don’t forget to check out the MMA Research Station to help you build your lineups, and follow me on Twitter!
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