Welcome back after a week break from fights. We finally have a card with 13 fights on it. Which, is very nice for a change. I am crossing my fingers that all fights go on as planned. Also VIP members our 2nd event with MMA Research Station will be up as well and as always I will be in Slack with any questions you might have.
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Schnell (-115) 8.2k vs Beltran (-105) 8k
Schnell has very good odds value for his price. He isn’t great anywhere but, he isn’t awful either. He is definitely the more experienced fight here. My main concern with him is he has shown to have a weak chin. Beltran is a very wild striker but, that’s about all he does. An interesting tidbit, most of Schnell’s fights end before the 2nd round. This is a fight I will be targeting in GPP’s for sure where I will be heavier on Schnell. Also, as long as he stays the favorite I like him in cash as well. Beltran, I will have some exposure to him in tournaments.
Tavares (-185) 8.3k vs Leites (+160) 7.9k
Tavares has won 3 of his last 4 fights. He is a good striker with good leg kicks as well. He also is a decent wrestler with good takedowns. I also like that he has shown he has good cardio and even when he gets taken down in fights he is able to get back up. Leites has been in the fight game for a long time. He does have a decent ground game it’s, just not anywhere where it used to be. Also as he has gotten older he tends to do better against non-active fighters. Plus he also tends to tire the longer the fight goes. I really like Tavares in this spot especially, in GPPs. I don’t hate him in cash either. I probably won’t have much exposure to Leites unless I am playing more than 16 lineups.
Bibulatov (-600) 9.3k vs Moraga (+450) 6.9k
Bibulatov is a very good wrestler and striker. He also comes into this fight undefeated. Moraga is a decent striker with a decent submission game. I really like Bibulatov in this matchup. He should have the advantage everywhere in this fight. I am comfortable playing him in all formats. Especially in GPP where most will pay up for DJ. I will more than likely be fading Moraga except for maybe a GPP dart.
Harris (-330) 9.2k vs Godbeer (+270) 7k
Harris is a very strong, athletic fighter. He is a good striker with good leg kicks. Godbeer is a tough fighter with decent takedowns. I really like Harris in this fight. The only reason I am hesitant with him is he can sometimes be inactive at times. If he does this then he would win a low scoring decision. Godbeer is a fade for me. I just don’t see a path to victory for him in this fight.
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Botelho (-145) 7.8k vs Gonzalez (+125) 8.4k
Botelho is priced as a dog on DraftKings. Right away that puts her in play in cash games. She is a very aggressive fighter with good power and leg kicks. She has 5 wins overall all by finish. Gonzales has a good ground game but, that’s about it. I like Botelho in all formats, I just don’t know how much exposure I will have to this fight overall but defiantly have some shares of it.
Vannata (-220) 8.8k vs Green (+180) 7.4k
Vannata has decent power with good kicks. Green is getting older and needs a win to keep fighting in the UFC. He can be dangerous at times it just depends on how serious he takes the fight. I can’t get a great feel for this fight. I want to play Vannata, I just hate his price. Overall this is a GPP fight only for me. Right now I will have more Vannata just not sure how much.
Brooks (-380) 8.6k vs Lentz (+315) 7.6k
This is a battle between former teammates. So, both these guys will be very familiar with one another. Brooks is decent all around. I would consider him a grinder in the aspect that he has no problems getting in the clinch and wearing on you. Lentz is a tough fighter but isn’t great at anything in particular. This fight for me is GPP only. Brooks should win, I just don’t know if he will score enough for his price. Lentz, I have more interest in just because of his price tag. I will have a few lineups with each. Just don’t go all in on this fight.
Duquesnoy (-165) 9.1k vs Stamann (+145) 7.1k
This might be the fight I am most looking forward to most. Duquesnoy is a great striker with good elbows. He likes to put together combos especially when he smells blood. He has shown in previous fights though that he can be taken down. He has shown to be hittable at times. Stamann is a very well rounded fighter. He has good takedowns and once he gets you down is very strong. I really like Stamann for his price in all formats. I don’t hate Duquesnoy either. I just don’t like his price. So for price savings alone, I will have more exposure to Stamann. Plus he has a very realistic shot at winning. This fight I will probably be all in on in GPP. So the lineups I don’t have Stamann I will have Duquesnoy.
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Dariush (-230) 9k vs Dunham (+190) 7.2k
This is a GPP fight only for me. Dariush is a good striker with very good leg kicks. He likes to land good combos. He is coming off a loss by flying knee. Dunham is a very tough fighter with good takedowns. This fight is likely to go to decision. For that reason, I don’t trust the floor of Dariush. I can see if you want to use Dunham in cash. It’s not the direction I am going right now. I will have both fighters in GPP with a slight lean towards Dunham.
Werdum (-255) 8.7k vs Lewis (+215) 7.5k
Werdum is a very good fighter overall. He is a good striker that will most likely want to keep the fight standing. Lewis is a very simple fighter. He will be looking to land that 1 big shot. If he connects its pretty much lights out. I just don’t see him doing that to Werdum. He knows what to expect and I don’t see him walking into a big shot. I love Werdum everywhere. He is fairly cheap for his odds. Lewis, I will either fade completely or have him in 1-2 lineups if I am building more then 16.
Faria (-210) 8.9k vs Borella (+165) 7.3k
I am fading this fight for the most part. I am not familiar with either fighter. I will be watching more film on these 2 tonight. So if you want my thoughts on this fight I will give my thoughts in Slack.
Johnson (-1375) 9.7k vs Borg (+900) 6.5k
Johnson is our free square in cash. He will be highly owned but you can’t fade him in cash games. He is a very high output striker. He also has a very strong submission game. He will have the advantage where ever this fight goes. Borg is very interesting at his price. He is decent all around. He has a good ground game. I can see him taking DJ down 1 or 2 times. So realistically he could score 30 DraftKings points in a loss. At that price, I don’t hate him in cash. In GPPS the best way to go is to limit exposure to DJ at his high salary. That way you can avoid having to take too many punts. I will have some lineups with him. But at a high ownership will be underweight on him.
Ferguson (-220) 8.9k vs Lee (+180) 7.3k
Ferguson is a very solid puncher. He also has good footwork and doesn’t keep his head in 1 spot for too long. Lee is good on the ground with decent submissions. I really like Ferguson in this matchup. He is way better on the feet. While Lee might have the advantage on the ground. I just don’t see him likely to get it there. I like Ferguson in all formats. I will have Lee in some GPP lineups it is 5 rounds and whoever wins this fight will score very good.
Good Luck Everyone! See all you VIPs in Slack. Also, stay tuned for the VIP MMA Research Station coming out this morning.
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