NBA DFS is a different kind of beast. Studs can outright win you a GPP with a massive performance and value plays can be brought to light just minutes before contest lock time due to late scratches or breaking news. It isn’t for the faint of heart and the most dedicated researchers and news followers will have a significant edge over the field. This column will be loaded with valuable research and metrics (facts) and analysis (feelings) on how to use this information in your contests.
Let’s get to work!
While we have limited information on how the rotations will form, what type of usage individual players have, and what kind of pace of play each team will have this season, I think the best approach for the first week or so will be to go more GPP heavy with more credence in the “feelings” aspect of DFS.
PG
Damian Lillard is so under-priced on FanDuel it’s not even funny. He’s $10,400 on DraftKings and only $8,800 on FanDuel. Looking at those prices what site do you think is the one you should be grabbing exposure on? Duh, FD! In the highest over/under of the night (220 total), Portland @ Pheonix should be a very fast tempo game with a lot of points scored in a very competitive game (POR is 1.5 favorites right now).
Across from Dame will be Eric Bledsoe ($7,500 on FD and $7,600 on DK), and I love the game stack strategy at point guard as these two will take over the game in a close battle. Dame is definitely your lock at PG on FD but I think Bledsoe is a lock on DK. Game stacking in the NBA is a phenomenal strategy in NBA and can be used in both cash games and GPPs. In NFL, game stacking is usually saved for GPPs only because you are creating a ton of correlation by stacking and if your QB + WR + opposing WR stack doesn’t hit, your lineup is sunk. In NBA, we have only five guys on the court from one team and a lot of the usage and offense flows through one or two players. Much like Tuesday’s article with the Celtics and Cavaliers, I am planting my flag in this game as one that I want to attack.
SG
Cheap starters who will play a ton of minutes and can grind out value are necessary when trying to grab stud players at the top of the pricing scale. Enter, Jaylen Brown. The athletic two guard will be in the lineup with Marcus Smart coming off the bench. He isn’t the best player on DraftKings because you only need to roster one SG, but on FanDuel where you need to roster two he is the perfect punt. Brown went off on Tuesday against the Cavs and without Gordon Hayward, Brown and Marcus Smart will be asked to pick up the slack on the wings.
James Harden is a mortal lock on DraftKings. He is only $10,200, which is actually $200 less than Damian Lillard, and Chris Paul might sit on Wednesday against one of the worst teams in the NBA (Sacramento Kings). Harden should have a ridiculous usage of close to 45% like he did last season. Fade him on FanDuel and get your exposure to him in cash, GPPs, and leagues on DK. He has the highest ceiling on the entire slate and is affordable due to the massive amount of value tonight.
Victor Oladipo should have a pretty high usage for the Pacers this season as they are lacking playmakers. The Brooklyn Nets had a terrible defense last season and played incredibly fast. Oladipo is a fantastic play on both sites and is a perfect play on FanDuel if you are fading Harden.
SF
I want to use Jayson Tatum every night until his price goes up. He is cheap on both sites, especially FanDuel, and should be locked into fairly heavy minutes because Marcus Morris is hurt and won’t be active. With Gordon Hayward out, Tatum also will need to play more minutes as an athletic presence at the 3/4 and an aggressive rebounder. Just like Jaylen Brown, using a cheap player with a lock for high minutes is key for success in NBA.
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Otto Porter Jr. feasted last season with Markieff Morris off the court. Morris is still recovering from back surgery in the off-season which means Porter will be playing a fair amount of time at the PF position. He’s extremely athletic and produces in every phase of the game. In an up-tempo match-up with the Sixers and high implied team total (111.3 points), Porter is a great way to gain exposure to the Wizards offense.
PF
Savvy DFS players know that there are certain injury situations around the NBA to take advantage of. One of them is whenever LaMarcus Aldridge will be the primary scorer for the Spurs. With Kawhi Leonard officially ruled out for Wednesday’s regular-season opener against the Wolves, the offense will flow through Aldridge. While Rudy Gay and Kyle Anderson will likely benefit without Leonard, they’ll more or less eat from each other rather than take from Aldridge. He’s under-priced on both sites for the usage he will have in the season opener. He’s close to a lock for me.
The alphabet, Giannis Antetokounmpo is going to pad his stats in every phase of the game, especially without Jabari Parker healthy to start the season. He apparently has worked on his jump shot 24/7 in the off-season and if he can add a jumper he will be nearly impossible to stop. In a match-up that should be very competitive with the Boston Celtics, he will be matched up with Jayson Tatum and should absolutely feast. With a very soft pricing for the first large slate of the season, Giannis is one of the primary guys I am looking to pay up for.
C
On FanDuel, Rudy Gobert is only $8,100. He is locked into my center spot on that site as he returns to the 2017-2018 with more offensive responsibility on his shoulders now that Gordon Hayward is playing for the Celtics. The Stifle Tower will be matched up with Nikola Jokic, who is a fantastic offensive weapon for the Nuggets. I am not too worried about fouls though because Gobert is a very talented and smart defensive player. The Jazz actually has a 104.3 points ITT because the Nuggets play at a pretty fast pace. Gobert is the savvy play as DFS players flock to the opposing center.
On DraftKings, Jusuf Nurkic is the third piece to the POR@PHO game stack that I started at the PG position. Nurkic has the potential to win the slate and has a great matchup against Pheonix. He averaged 40 DK points per game in his final 20 games of the season for the Trailblazers last year. Healthy and ready to take the next step, Nurkic is a fantastic option at a loaded center position.
As the slates get bigger and more information is out, you will begin to find more metrics and research involved in our decision making. Just like my NFL articles, I will mix a fair amount of research with game theory and discuss how and where I plan on using the players for each slate. I am so excited to be providing content for the NBA season and I will see you all in Slack chat #dailydonuts #nfl-talk and #nba-talk.
You can find me on Twitter @DFSnDONUTS where I post my daily articles and love to interact with my followers.
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