Welcome to another weekend of MMA. This card is taking place in Japan so, we have a Friday night card. There a quite a few close fights on this card so, don’t overexpose yourself too much on this card. What I mean by that is don’t be afraid to fade whole fights for GPP’s. Concentrate on building a core of 3-4 fighters you like and build around them with punts and higher priced fighters with upside. Also, stay tuned I will be dropping the VIP MMA Research Station sometime Thursday night. Let’s get to the breakdowns.
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Lim (-125) 8.4k vs Abe (+105) 7.8k
We start off the night with a GPP only fight for me. Lim has decent kicks with decent power. He is coming off a loss to Mike Perry by KO who has huge power in his hands. Even before that fight, he has shown he has a suspect chin. Abe is coming into this fight as the smaller fighter. He has decent power but, nothing great. In tournaments, I want to have a little exposure to both fighters. I prefer Abe for the price. I won’t have too many lineups with either fighter. I think the best idea is to have a share of both of them. I am not a fan of using either in cash.
Jumeau (-245) 8.9k vs Anzai (+205) 7.3k
Jumeau is a fairly good boxer that also lands some nice combos. He should have the advantage pretty much everywhere in this fight. Anzai hasn’t had a fight since 2015. He tends to come out very fast in the first half of the 1st round. The problem is after that he normally gases out and doesn’t do much after that. For that reason alone I am fading Anzai. If you want to take a stab at him in a GPP, that’s fine. Just tread very lightly. Jumeau for me is playable in all formats. I like his price tag and think he is pretty safe to win. I like him more in cash then GPP just, because I don’t know how high he will score in a win.
Jeon (-105) 8.2k vs Kondo (-115) 8k
This is a GPP fight only for me if, I even use either at all. I can see merit to fading this fight and targeting other ones with more upside. Jeon is decent all around but, nothing stands out to me that they are great at anything. Kondo is a decent striker with decent strikes. I see this fight most likely going to decision. I am not confident in either fighter. I also don’t think the winner will score that highly. Like I said this is a fight I am most likely fading. If, you want exposure to this fight, be sure you have sides of both.
Formiga (-450) 9.2k vs Sasaki (+360) 7k
Formiga is a decent striker. Where he excels is in the grappling and clinch. He should have no problems taking this fight to the mat and securing some takedowns and grappling points. Sasaki is a wild striker who has shown to have several holes in his game. Although he will have the better length in this fight, the only way I see him winning this fight is locking in a submission. Which isn’t very likely. I like Formiga in all formats. The only problem will be fitting him in. I don’t mind having 1-2 lineups with Sasaki if running more than 10 lineups. Just realize it’s not very likely he wins.
Morono (-135) 8.5k vs Nakamura (+115) 7.7k
Morono is a tough aggressive fighter. Nakamura is also a very tough fighter. I think he has the better ground game plus, is a much more experienced fighter overall. This fight should be very entertaining as it will most likely stay standing for 3 rounds. With the lack of fighters priced under 8k that I like, I really like Nakamura in cash and GPP. Especially at his price. Just realize he is going to be very popular. For that reason, I will have some exposure to Morono in GPP. Whichever fighter wins should score well. I just like Nakamura more at his price for the upside.
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Rosa (-190) 8.8k vs Hirota (+165) 7.4k
This is another fight I will likely be targeting the underdog in. Rosa is an ok striker that has shown some improvement in that aspect of his game. After that, he is just ok everywhere else. Hirota will be coming in a bit undersized in this fight. He is a decent grappler with a good chin. He also has been training with Cole Miller for this fight. While Miller did lose to Rosa, I like hearing this. I will be fading Rosa at his price. There are too many other fighters in this price range with better odds and upside. Hirota, I like as a cash/GPP punt. Not saying he will win the fight. But, he has a decent floor at his price that allows you to pay up for the higher priced fighters.
Ishihara (-155) 8.7k vs Dy (+135) 7.5k
Ishihara let down a lot of people in his last fight. He came in as a sizeable favorite and then proceeded to get dominated. He has KO power so, he could end it very quickly. The major flaw with him is he has very bad takedown defense. Dy has very quick hands with good combos. He just doesn’t have 1 punch KO power. If he can get this fight to the ground I like his chances. For tournaments, I will have some exposure to Ishihara. He should have depressed ownership coming off of 2 straight letdown fights. I just won’t be overly exposed to him because of his low floor. Dy is playable in GPP/cash as a punt play.
Saki (-175) 8.6k vs Silva (+155) 7.6k
This is a GPP fight only for me. Saki hasn’t had an MMA fight in 11 years. Yes, I said 11. He is a very good kickboxer. With big power in his kicks and hands. (Everyone is talking about his kickboxing just note, he has had a fight over 1 1/2 years.) Silva is good on the ground with a decent submission game. So these fight basically plays out 1 of 2 ways.
1. Saki keeps the fight standing and likely wins via ko in the 1st Rd.
2. Silva is able to take the fight to the ground and get a submission.
For these reasons, I want shares of both. Most likely I will have more of Silva at his price. But, will definitely have Saki as well. Just be aware of his low floor and high ceiling.
Kim (-410) 9.1k vs Gomi (+330) 7.1k
Kim is the closest thing to a cash game lock for me. He is a decent striker with very good takedowns. He also has a strong ground and pound game. Gomi has been around a long time. At 1 point he was a good fighter he, has just reached that point in his career where his body can’t take it much more. He as shown over his last several fights that he gasses way too fast and then gets hurt. I will be heavily exposed to Kim in all formats. If you want to take Gomi as a flyer that’s fine. I most likely won’t be doing so unless I am making over 12 lineups.
Gadelha (-270) 9k vs Andrade (+230) 7.2k
This is most likely going to be the fight of the night. Gadelha is a decent striker. Where she thrives is once it goes to the ground. She has a strong wrestling game with very good submissions. Andrade is decent on the feet but, is very aggressive and likes to press forward. This is a fight that most likely goes to decision. But, I think it’s close to a must target fight. The winner of this fight will most likely be on the winning gpp lu. I like both fighters in all formats. I have even considered stacking this fight in cash. Right now I am leaning towards more shares of Gadelha in gpp then Andrade. But definitely, have exposure to both.
OSP (-490) 9.5k vs Okami (+390) 6.7k
OSP should have little trouble winning this fight. He is coming in at a huge size advantage. He is a good striker with a decent submission game. My only issue is sometimes he lands at a lower output. Okami hasn’t fought in 4 years and is moving up 2 weight classes. I love OSP for his safety in all formats. Just don’t force him into your lineups with lack of confident punt options. Okami is in play for cash as salary relief. Just realize he could likely score under 10-15 dk points.
If you have any questions look for me in Slack. Also, stay tuned for the VIP MMA Research Station coming out.
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