IT. IS. ALL. OVER. The regular season comes to crescendo this week at Richmond. It will be a WEIRD race, but it’s a short turn around. I’ll do my best to keep it short and sweet this week so lets get right into it. To start, make sure you check you my primer article “The Competition Caution”. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
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Top Plays
Martin Truex JR. – If we learned anything from the xFinity race last night, it was that the long runs will be prevalent. Truex and company seems to be well aware of that and have there piece set up for the long run. They lack a bit of short run speed (probably by design), but should power forward as the tire wear. The books have Kyle Busch as the favorite, but I think that is misguided – Truex is my favorite.
Brad K. – Bad Brad won the aforementioned xFinity Race with some brilliant conservative driving. His Friday night excursion should give him a leg up on the field, and his 15th place starting spot shouldn’t hurt either. His worst effort in the last four Richmond tries was an 11th. He has top three long run speed, and should bull to the front pretty quick, and could lead some laps. Brad is a solid play this week.
Kyle Busch – There is really no escaping Kyle Busch in the world of fantasy. Starting 7th, he’s stuck in the deadzone a little – but he has enough speed to dominate this race, and is of course a Richmond ace. I think he will compete for laps led with Truex Jr, and compete for a win by the end of the day.
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is as good as it gets at Richmond, has no reason to be there but to win, and has significant speed in his racecar. Chances are he will fall in line with Kenseth after the start, but should race hard all race, whereas Kenseth will probably take a much more conservative approach to this race. Hamlin is the hottest driver in NASCAR, and could make it two in a row easily.
Confusing Plays
I think Kenseth will take a very conservative approach to this race, as he just need to have a decent finish to make the playoffs. He will probably lead some laps, since he does appear to have top 4 speed, but I don’t see him pushing his car too much. He’s not a full fade, but I am not playing him at the same rate I usually would a polesitter.
Value Plays
Ryan Newman – The entire RCR collective missed the mark with their qualifying setup, but that is in the past. They see to have half decent speed in race trim, and Newman should take advantage of that the most. He is a tremendous talent at Richmond, and is already locked in the playoffs. Look for Newman to compete for a top 15 on his way to the optimal lineup.
Austin Dillon – Dillon qualified 31st after showing top 25 speed in practice. I’m not one hundred percent sold on Dillon, since he has struggled at Richmond in the past, and his ceiling is probably around 15th. That said, it is impossible to ignore B equipment starting in the 30s.
Daniel Suarez – Suarez has top 6 speed against a 16th spot. He has been one of the most consistent drivers on the circuit, which is incredible for a rookie. I think Suarez ends up in the top ten tonight, and will be in the optimal.
Ty Dillon – Ty is a little bit safer than Austin, starting one tick back and $900 cheaper. Dillon didn’t show encouraging speed in practice, but we all know Ty’s propensity for survival. Look for Ty to compete for a top 20.
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So there it is folks. Keep an eye on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.
