Welcome to what I like to call – the most useless article of the year! It’s really hard to predict plate tracks. All we can do is talk strategy, and how different drivers fit into that. As always, the research is just getting started, so think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research.
A couple of notes that I always like to note on restrictior plate tracks:
- Most importantly, the restrictor plates. On track, the cars have about the same horsepower – meaning they will be nose to tail all day. This means drivers who usually aren’t relevant get made relevant, and if there is a crash – it’s going to end the day of 3-15 drivers in an instant.
- There is only 160 laps. Meaning we only have 40 laps led points to give out, and depending on how cautions come probably only 60 fast lap points. This puts a premium on on place differential.
- It’s very seldom that the optimal lineup maxes that salary cap. Whacky lineups galore.
I think the most important thing this week will be playing at least five differential plays. Take a look at this table provided by the lovely and talented Taco:
As you can see, the sweet spot is 26th starting spot or worse, and only 5 times has someone in the top five ended up in the optimal. Drivers in the back also have the benefit of more fast laps, since the cars infront of them are cutting the air for them.
Now regardless of what strategy you play this week – plate tracks have a DNF rate of around 20%. Meaning every driver in the field this Saturday will have a one in five chance of not completing all the laps. This makes just about any strategy volatile, and you should be super certain to play within your limits this week. With that in mind, understanding the correct optimal place differential strategy certainly gives us an edge.
Rather than give you top plays, fades, and values, I am going to give you my thoughts on each driver starting 26th or worse, and allow you to create a strategy with that in mind. Bolded drivers are drivers I consider top plays. Keep in mind that other drivers starting better than 26th are unplayable, but they are just volatile. Obviously the chalk is going to be Truex Jr. and Larson.
Landon Cassill – Cassill is a great plate racer, but I think 26th is just a little high for him. He certainly could eek out a top 15, but even then his upside is around 40 pts. I think there are better options starting farther back than Landon, but I don’t consider him a complete fade.
AJ Allmendinger – I think AJ is a good play for a couple reasons – his recent Daytona performances have been really solid, and he has a nose for fast laps at Daytona. JTG Daughtery is notorious for focusing soley on race trim, so it’s no suprise he is starting poorly. I expect him to race towards the front by the end of the day and maybe compete for a top 10.
Matt DiBenedetto – DiBurrito is in a similar boat as Cassill. He is a very good plate racer, but he just qualified a little too well. He scored a 9th at Daytona in Feburary but I think that is an outlier. There are better plays farther back.
Chris Buescher – The gamelog wouldn’t tell you this, but Chris is a pretty good plate driver. He has had miserable luck at Daytona so far in his Cup career, but he tends to run much better than he finishes. If he can keep his nose clean, I actually don’t mind laying Buescher at $5900, but it has to be considered a high risk play.
David Ragan – Really strange pricing here, because Ragan is a pure survivalist. At $5200, Ragan seems like a steal. He never seems to finish all that well, but he almost always finishes. I probably feel most comfortable playing Ragan of anyone in this range.
Darrell Wallace Jr – This is a really polarizing play. Wallace is a known restrictor plate hater, but he is starting 31st in semi decent equipment. The biggest knock agaisnt him is the rookie stripes on his back bumper. Drivers tend to not want to work with rookies, and I expect this to be no different. At $6900, I think Wallace Jr is just too high risk to put too much stock into.
Brendan Gaughan – I actually don’t mind Gaughan this weekend. He is working with an old RCR chassis, and will be making an attempting at all 160 laps. He brought it home 9th at Daytona in Feburary, and if this race gets out of control he can repeat that. Don’t shy away from Gaughan this weekend.
Elliott Sadler – Sadler is another guy who is perennial survivor. Chances are, Sadler finishes this race, and finishes in the top 20. The only problem is he is priced accordingly at $6300, which is much too high for the equipment. Regardless, Sadler is one of the most respected plate racers in the field and is worth some exposure.
Ty Dillon – Another guy that stands to suffer from the rookie stripe problem, Ty Dillon is a strange play as well. At $6400, Dillon does not have the plate stats to justify getting super excited about. That said, he will have some help. Menard, Austin and Newman will all be willing to work with him. If Dillon can keep his nose clean, a top 15 is not out of the question – but thats a big if.
Cole Whitt – Whitt might be a bit of a chalk monster, but for good reason. Whitt is a fantastic plate racer who has fantastic survival instinct. I will be playing a lot of Whitt this weekend base purely on his ability to finish these races.
Corey Lajoie – Lajoie is going to attempt all 160 laps, and has shown at least some survivalist on plate tracks. He is a risky top 25 upside play.
Reed Sorenson – In this race last year, Sorenson finished 22nd in a Premium Motorsports machine. The only other plate attempt in this car resulted in a 40th place finish. I think Sorenson can compete for a top 30, but that is only if he can finish, and that is a big if.
Ryan Sieg – ROOKIE STRIPES ALERT. Ryan Sieg is making his first plate start ever in the cup series (and his third start overall). However, this car finished in the top 25 at both plate tracks so far this year. If you think Sieg can run this race as well as Joey Gase ran the other plate races, go ahead and play him.
Jeffrey Earnhardt – Earnhardt has finished 26th and 28th in plate races so far this year, and I think that is his upside. I much prefer Sorenson, Sieg, Whitt and even Kennington to Earnhardt, who never seems to move too far forward.
D.J. Kennington – This is the car that Waltip drove to an 8th at Daytona, and a 12th at Talledega. Listen, Kennington is no Mikey Waltrip – but we know this car is capable of making it’s way towards the front. I actually don’t mind giving some exposure to Kennington, who offers limited downside, high upside and will probably go overlooked. (DraftKings has DJ marked as out earlier this week, but he is competing.)
So there it is folks, use that to start your research. We will be talking more strategy on the DFS Army Slack Room right up until lock, and thats what it will be all about this week. Strategy. Get signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. As always, use my research as a launching point for yours. Trust your process, good luck this week, and let’s make some cash.
