Head north, and the go straight east – we are headed to New Hampshire, a really unique, flat race track that requires a certain amount of precision to master. This is a track I really feel like we have a good grasp on, so I am super stoked about this week. Make sure you check back all week for Taco’s Fast 40 Podcast on Friday, and The Sway Bar article on Saturday. Until then think about getting signed up and get exclusive access to our projection model, the domination station lineup optimizer, and most importantly, direct chat room access to some of the sharpest NASCAR minds in the industry. I will be on there all weekend updating everyone on my research. To start the week off, let’s take a look a New Hampshire.
Superspeedway: 1.058 mile oval
Race length: 318.458 miles
Scheduled Laps: 301
Banking: 12 degrees; Straights: 2 degrees
Length of Straights: Frontstretch – 1500ft; Backstretch – 1500ft
First thing I want to do is take a look at some results from last years New Hampshire races, both of which took place during the day.
Summer:
Fall:
First thing you’ll notice is Matt Kenseth kind of know his way around this joint, but let’s deal with that later. Right now I want to focus on optimal lineup construction. Last year, the flavor of the week was two dominators, one winner who started in the late teens, one 7500 driver who started in the 20s, and two lower priced drivers who started in the late 20s early 30s. If you follow that narrative, here is what I think we need to target this week.
2 dominators
Probably starting in the top 5-8. One of these will probably be Truex Jr, who dominated both races last year and is even better this year. He seems like a lock to be starting on the front row and get the point for a good chunk of this race. Without even seeing practices or qualifying – I’m damn near ready to call MTJ a lock. So who else might dominate? Let’s take a look at laps led in the past.
Kyle Busch being at the top of these lists is getting old, but alas – there is a good chance Kyle Busch joins MTJ as dominator again this week. He has the second best car in the field every week, and he has a very storied history at New Hampshire. I think Kyle’s Joe Gibbs teammates could show up with heat this weekend. As we breifly noted – Kenseth has been super good at New Hampshire the last few years. Of course, he has struggled recently – but they are trending upward. Kenseth no doubt had speed last weekend, while is de facto teammates has top two speed. The same goes for Denny Hamlin – who was the prince of flat tracks at one point in his career. His success at New Hampshire seems to be a distant memory, but I think his upward trend coupled with his propensity for risk taking will give him a chance to go back to the point come Sunday.
I also want to note Kevin Harvick and teammate Clint Bowyer – both of which are pure studs at the magic mile. I am most excitied about Clint Bowyer, who I think will go overlooked this weekend. Bowyer has been just dreadful at New Hampshire for most of his career. BUT. and this is an important distinction, when he was in good cars he was ALWAYS competitive here. and even dominated races. I think he will regain that form this weekend. Will he dominate? Eh – it’s unlikely. But I do think he is relevant regardless of where he qualifies this weekend.
Value
So those will be the driver I am tracking in practice for domination type speed, but who can we look at as potential value place differential plays? Let’s take a look at my favorite stat, quality pass. Quality pass is a great stat because it shows which drivers can move through the field IF they have the car to do so. It needs to be paired with good practice times to be effective, so we will revisit it on Saturday.
I think the most notable one here, and possibly the most value – is Danica Patrick. Danica’s form in 2017 and at New Hampshire in recent years has been really impressive agaisnt a track history that isn’t so impressive. She could go overlooked and I think we can grab an edge if her starting spot isn’t up to snuff.
Austin Dillon is one of Dillons better tracks, and he has looked good in 2017. I think he is in a position to have a career type day come Sunday. I think top 15 is a given as long as he stays out of trouble, and a top ten is more than likely. In the same vain, another RCR driver stands to have a good day on Sunday. Newman always finds his way into the top 15 at New Hampshire, and should be a look should he qualify outside the top 20.
Lastly, the Hendrick outcasts both have some clout when it comes to New Hampshire. I know, I know – a lot of you have sworn off this terrible twosome for 2017. I urge you to reconsider. Both Kahne and Earnhardt Jr have serious top 5 upside this weekend, at a track where race car will really matter. As bad as they have both been – it is important to remember that they both have top 10 cars and they are both elite drivers. That paired with an inspiring track history and a sub $8000 price tag could force these guys into an impossible fade.
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